Iran
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From: on the ground
As long as the price of the risk (insurance premium) exceeds the return at current prices on the cargo, it's not worth moving.
Sure there's lots more in there, cost of doing nothing, value of extracting the ship from the Gulf to use elsewhere, etc, but that's the basic equation. If the market price doesn't provide a return after factoring in the risk (insurance premium), the load doesn't move.
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From: Nottinghamshire
Sat with cup of tea last night wondering where this was going, with leaders rhetoric slowly painting themselves into a corner. ( I' m being even handed here) It doesn't seem that long ago we had the first televised war courtesy of CNN and now we have the first by social media - And as anyone who frequented X knows - its one hell of a rabbit hole to go down.
We've been in a numbers game since the first exchange. If one side can generate enough cheap drones we may well have arrived at a stalemate already, where a choke point is held with the threat to shipping being enough to disrupt the world economy. If this can be talked out of by anyone - I'm all for it. ( or is this a rearming pause..)
I'm still wondering if the impending arrival of stealth busting Radar and a million drones to saturate Iron Dome might have been the straw that broke the camels back for Israel, but one thing is for sure, the way we in the west shape our armed forces needs to learn these lessons quickly. Far quicker than we were learning them by watching Ukraine.
We've been in a numbers game since the first exchange. If one side can generate enough cheap drones we may well have arrived at a stalemate already, where a choke point is held with the threat to shipping being enough to disrupt the world economy. If this can be talked out of by anyone - I'm all for it. ( or is this a rearming pause..)
I'm still wondering if the impending arrival of stealth busting Radar and a million drones to saturate Iron Dome might have been the straw that broke the camels back for Israel, but one thing is for sure, the way we in the west shape our armed forces needs to learn these lessons quickly. Far quicker than we were learning them by watching Ukraine.
Last edited by AR1; 23rd March 2026 at 14:24. Reason: Added some pessimism regarding the pause.
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From: West Country
This raises the question for me as to how many medium-range ballistic missiles Iran has, and how many SM-3s the USA has deployed in-theatre. Given Iran's published target list, there is a lot of pressure on the USA to provide adequate cover for those, as well as other not listed, but militarily important targets. The SM-3s cost between USD 10 million and USD 30 million each.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-n...t-2024-10?op=1
https://thedefensepost.com/2026/03/17/sm-3-block-ib/
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary...n-warfare.html
I would hope that USA and Israeli intelligence know how many medium-range ballistic missiles Iran has available and therefore have enough stock of adequate defensive weapons: otherwise the Iranian strategy is clear. Currently, the Iranians have absolutely no incentive to hold back.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-n...t-2024-10?op=1
https://thedefensepost.com/2026/03/17/sm-3-block-ib/
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary...n-warfare.html
I would hope that USA and Israeli intelligence know how many medium-range ballistic missiles Iran has available and therefore have enough stock of adequate defensive weapons: otherwise the Iranian strategy is clear. Currently, the Iranians have absolutely no incentive to hold back.
Well .....none obviously, because DJT told us over a week ago that they had destroyed 100% of Iran's military capability.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
Reportedly arriving today and tomorrow.
My images of F-16C Block 50 Fighting Falcons of the U.S. Air Force from the 14th and 77th Fighter Squadrons en route to Ovda Airbase, Israel.
They are set to replace fighter elements previously deployed aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford of the U.S. Navy, which were conducting combat air patrols over the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb.
Some of these aircraft will also participate in operations to defend Israel and Jordan against incoming one-way attack drones launched by the IRGC Aerospace Force.
This is the final deployment for the 14th Fighter Squadron based at Misawa, Japan, as it prepares to retire its F-16s and transfer them to other units, including the 480th Fighter Squadron and the 77th Fighter Squadron.
They are set to replace fighter elements previously deployed aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford of the U.S. Navy, which were conducting combat air patrols over the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb.
Some of these aircraft will also participate in operations to defend Israel and Jordan against incoming one-way attack drones launched by the IRGC Aerospace Force.
This is the final deployment for the 14th Fighter Squadron based at Misawa, Japan, as it prepares to retire its F-16s and transfer them to other units, including the 480th Fighter Squadron and the 77th Fighter Squadron.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
Leaked to CBS 3 days ago, looks like it's happening, 82nd Airborne deploying.
CBS: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-a...-preparations/
Photos
CBS: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-a...-preparations/
Trump administration making heavy preparations for potential use of ground troops in Iran
......The U.S. is preparing to deploy elements of the 82nd Airborne Division into the Middle East region.
The planning involves the Army's Global Response Force and the Marine Corps' Marine Expeditionary Unit.
Thousands of Marines are being moved now to the Middle East. Three warships and about 2,200 Marines from an expeditionary unit departed California earlier this week, according to two U.S. officials. It was the second such Marine unit sent since the war began, and it could be a few weeks before it's in place. The first was sent from the Pacific and is still making its way into the region.
The movements underscore the Pentagon's effort to expand military options available to the president, even as administration officials publicly decline to discuss potential next steps.
......The U.S. is preparing to deploy elements of the 82nd Airborne Division into the Middle East region.
The planning involves the Army's Global Response Force and the Marine Corps' Marine Expeditionary Unit.
Thousands of Marines are being moved now to the Middle East. Three warships and about 2,200 Marines from an expeditionary unit departed California earlier this week, according to two U.S. officials. It was the second such Marine unit sent since the war began, and it could be a few weeks before it's in place. The first was sent from the Pacific and is still making its way into the region.
The movements underscore the Pentagon's effort to expand military options available to the president, even as administration officials publicly decline to discuss potential next steps.
USAF C-17A out of Fort Bragg (82nd Airborne Division) setting up to cross the Atlantic Ocean; can carry up to 102 paratroopers with equipment: C-17 RCH674 08-8204 AE2FB0.
USAF C-17A out of Joint Base Charleston (JBC), which supports army paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg: C-17 RCH580 05-5145 #AE144F.
Also, 08-8204 already made a round trip earlier today from Fort Bragg's Pope Army Airfield as RCH898.
USAF C-17A out of Joint Base Charleston (JBC), which supports army paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg: C-17 RCH580 05-5145 #AE144F.
Also, 08-8204 already made a round trip earlier today from Fort Bragg's Pope Army Airfield as RCH898.
Last edited by ORAC; 23rd March 2026 at 16:00.
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
A rather interesting read.
Forget the politics in it, it shows how a strong leadership against a weak one can turn the tails on a superpower and beat a superpower by both tactically outsmarting them and using their perceived strengths against them, such as targeting the very facilities the US threatens to hit in Iran by counter threatening to do the same in the gulf states, you end up with an impasse that you cannot get out of.
Hit Iranian desalination plants and the whole of the middle east will find themselves bereft of water as Iran destroy theirs, water is life and if you remove that the whole gulf will collapse. Sounds a good scheme to the paper general's now running the US war strategy, but actions have consequences, and they are just finding that out.
Iran has finally exposed the limits of Trump’s power
.
Forget the politics in it, it shows how a strong leadership against a weak one can turn the tails on a superpower and beat a superpower by both tactically outsmarting them and using their perceived strengths against them, such as targeting the very facilities the US threatens to hit in Iran by counter threatening to do the same in the gulf states, you end up with an impasse that you cannot get out of.
Hit Iranian desalination plants and the whole of the middle east will find themselves bereft of water as Iran destroy theirs, water is life and if you remove that the whole gulf will collapse. Sounds a good scheme to the paper general's now running the US war strategy, but actions have consequences, and they are just finding that out.
By postponing his threat to “obliterate” Iran’s energy system if Tehran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump has revealed the limits of American power, which are understood by its enemies, but not by its president.
Trump claims the five-day “pause” on his plans to destroy Iran’s electricity system came about through “very good and productive talks” with Tehran – talks Iran says never happened.
But the US president did have to account for Tehran’s calibrated reaction to his threat. Do that, said Iran, in its first response, and we’ll blow up all the desalination plants that keep your Gulf allies alive in the desert, we’ll shut down the Strait of Hormuz until you fix all our stuff that you bombed, and we’ll go after Israel even harder.
Later, Tehran seemed to roll these threats back in an uncharacteristic attempt to hold some moral high ground, after the UN observed that destroying water systems could be a war crime.
Iran said it would focus on taking out electricity generating plants in the Gulf – which coincidentally supply power to turn sea water into fresh.
“The lying... US president has claimed that the Revolutionary Guards intends to attack the water desalination plants and cause hardship to the people of the countries in the region,” the Iranian government said on state media.
“We are determined to respond to any threat at the same level as it creates in terms of deterrence... If you hit electricity, we hit electricity.”
A “pause” allows Gulf nations to try to replenish fast dwindling air defences. It buys Iran’s now highly decentralised military system respite from a possible onslaught. And it gives Trump the chance to reflect, if he is capable of reflection, on how to get out of a quagmire that Tehran has prepared for him.
The Israel-US attacks on Iran, now going into their fourth week, have caused a surge in oil and natural gas prices and threaten to trigger global recession.
Facing mid-term elections in November, Trump can ill-afford skyrocketing prices at American petrol stations.
The cycle of threats to energy was started by Israel which, aping Russian tactics in Ukraine, bombed Iran’s South Pars gas field. Qatar draws its wealth from the same underground reservoirs and while liquefied natural gas prices spun yet higher, Trump demanded that Israel stop such attacks against Iran.
These attacks are also probably war crimes.
But this is moot. The US and Israel believed they could bomb Iran into regime change. They forgot the lessons of recent history – that a threat from a superpower is far more effective than the exercise of that power.
The limits of American-led military operations when it comes to achieving political ends were bitterly exposed with the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Incompetent leaders of the US-led occupying forces set the conditions for a bloody insurgency that led to the establishment of the so-called Islamic State.
It also allowed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies in Iraq, Damascus (the Assad regime), and Lebanon (Hezbollah) to flourish for two decades.
The IRGC fought in Iraq and watched US-led forces in Afghanistan flounder and bleed and learned that a global superpower can be defeated in the long term.
Among the lessons they observed was the “threat” from then-president Barack Obama to use force against the then ruler of Damascus, Bashar al Assad, if his forces used chemical weapons. Assad used the globally banned weapons – and America did nothing.
It may have been deemed expedient to leave Assad in power and to abandon the democratic and revolutionary forces trying to drive him out for fear of creating more space for al-Qaeda and Isis.
A failure to act may have been the right thing to do – but Assad and his puppet masters in Tehran did not know that. They gambled, and won – and America didn’t have the nerve or the muscle to move against them.
Responding to Trump’s threat at the weekend to “obliterate” Iran’s oil fields, Tehran said: “Any attempt to attack Iran’s coasts or islands will cause all access routes in the Gulf... to be mined with various types of sea mines, including floating mines that can be released from the coast.
“In this case, the entire Gulf will practically be in a situation similar to the Strait of Hormuz for a long time...”
This is an insurgent tactic that the US and Israel, who have had years of experience fighting militant insurgencies, failed to take account of.
It may also be a lie. The Iranians may no longer have the capacity to cripple the global economy in this way.
Tehran’s threat was also a dare. Would America ever truly gamble on whether Iran can shut down the route for 20 per cent of the world’s oil, most of Europe’s gas, and on whether the IRGC can, really, shut down the Gulf plants which make at least 80 per cent of the region’s water?
Trump has his own insurgent approach to communications. It keeps his friends off balance and serves his enemies.
Signalling alternatively that he is winding down the US war in Iran, then threatening an escalation. He asks for help from allies to open the Strait of Hormuz then dismisses them, including Britain, as cowards that are no longer needed.
Gulf countries have seen this behaviour and been dragged into the war with Iran by hosting US bases. Their glistening cities are only habitable because they are powered by gas and oil. Their thirst only quenched by taking the salt out of seawater.
Iran’s foreign policy under successive ayatollahs is driven by a fundamentalist interpretation of Twelver Shi’ism. They believe that Iran must remain a conservative theocracy to create the conditions for the Mahdi to reveal himself.
This has driven an obsessive hatred of America and Israel. Iran placed itself at the centre of the Axis of Resistance which included the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Assad regime, and militias in Iraq.
Now Tehran is not only at the centre of this axis, it is the focal point of “resistance”. And it is America’s president who seems to be backing down (probably under pressure from Gulf allies).
Iran appears to have allowed some Indian and Pakistani oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran may be reeling from air attacks that killed supreme leader Ali Khamenei and may have injured his son, and successor, Mojtaba, but it is exploiting opportunities to isolate Trump.
There are no signs that Iran’s regime is falling or that its long-oppressed and violently abused population is rising against it.
It is trying to extract a price for a war brought to the world by Trump and Netanyahu that none of their friends want to pay.
That is how to beat a superpower.
Trump claims the five-day “pause” on his plans to destroy Iran’s electricity system came about through “very good and productive talks” with Tehran – talks Iran says never happened.
But the US president did have to account for Tehran’s calibrated reaction to his threat. Do that, said Iran, in its first response, and we’ll blow up all the desalination plants that keep your Gulf allies alive in the desert, we’ll shut down the Strait of Hormuz until you fix all our stuff that you bombed, and we’ll go after Israel even harder.
Later, Tehran seemed to roll these threats back in an uncharacteristic attempt to hold some moral high ground, after the UN observed that destroying water systems could be a war crime.
Iran said it would focus on taking out electricity generating plants in the Gulf – which coincidentally supply power to turn sea water into fresh.
“The lying... US president has claimed that the Revolutionary Guards intends to attack the water desalination plants and cause hardship to the people of the countries in the region,” the Iranian government said on state media.
“We are determined to respond to any threat at the same level as it creates in terms of deterrence... If you hit electricity, we hit electricity.”
A “pause” allows Gulf nations to try to replenish fast dwindling air defences. It buys Iran’s now highly decentralised military system respite from a possible onslaught. And it gives Trump the chance to reflect, if he is capable of reflection, on how to get out of a quagmire that Tehran has prepared for him.
The Israel-US attacks on Iran, now going into their fourth week, have caused a surge in oil and natural gas prices and threaten to trigger global recession.
Facing mid-term elections in November, Trump can ill-afford skyrocketing prices at American petrol stations.
The cycle of threats to energy was started by Israel which, aping Russian tactics in Ukraine, bombed Iran’s South Pars gas field. Qatar draws its wealth from the same underground reservoirs and while liquefied natural gas prices spun yet higher, Trump demanded that Israel stop such attacks against Iran.
These attacks are also probably war crimes.
But this is moot. The US and Israel believed they could bomb Iran into regime change. They forgot the lessons of recent history – that a threat from a superpower is far more effective than the exercise of that power.
The limits of American-led military operations when it comes to achieving political ends were bitterly exposed with the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Incompetent leaders of the US-led occupying forces set the conditions for a bloody insurgency that led to the establishment of the so-called Islamic State.
It also allowed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies in Iraq, Damascus (the Assad regime), and Lebanon (Hezbollah) to flourish for two decades.
The IRGC fought in Iraq and watched US-led forces in Afghanistan flounder and bleed and learned that a global superpower can be defeated in the long term.
Among the lessons they observed was the “threat” from then-president Barack Obama to use force against the then ruler of Damascus, Bashar al Assad, if his forces used chemical weapons. Assad used the globally banned weapons – and America did nothing.
It may have been deemed expedient to leave Assad in power and to abandon the democratic and revolutionary forces trying to drive him out for fear of creating more space for al-Qaeda and Isis.
A failure to act may have been the right thing to do – but Assad and his puppet masters in Tehran did not know that. They gambled, and won – and America didn’t have the nerve or the muscle to move against them.
Responding to Trump’s threat at the weekend to “obliterate” Iran’s oil fields, Tehran said: “Any attempt to attack Iran’s coasts or islands will cause all access routes in the Gulf... to be mined with various types of sea mines, including floating mines that can be released from the coast.
“In this case, the entire Gulf will practically be in a situation similar to the Strait of Hormuz for a long time...”
This is an insurgent tactic that the US and Israel, who have had years of experience fighting militant insurgencies, failed to take account of.
It may also be a lie. The Iranians may no longer have the capacity to cripple the global economy in this way.
Tehran’s threat was also a dare. Would America ever truly gamble on whether Iran can shut down the route for 20 per cent of the world’s oil, most of Europe’s gas, and on whether the IRGC can, really, shut down the Gulf plants which make at least 80 per cent of the region’s water?
Trump has his own insurgent approach to communications. It keeps his friends off balance and serves his enemies.
Signalling alternatively that he is winding down the US war in Iran, then threatening an escalation. He asks for help from allies to open the Strait of Hormuz then dismisses them, including Britain, as cowards that are no longer needed.
Gulf countries have seen this behaviour and been dragged into the war with Iran by hosting US bases. Their glistening cities are only habitable because they are powered by gas and oil. Their thirst only quenched by taking the salt out of seawater.
Iran’s foreign policy under successive ayatollahs is driven by a fundamentalist interpretation of Twelver Shi’ism. They believe that Iran must remain a conservative theocracy to create the conditions for the Mahdi to reveal himself.
This has driven an obsessive hatred of America and Israel. Iran placed itself at the centre of the Axis of Resistance which included the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Assad regime, and militias in Iraq.
Now Tehran is not only at the centre of this axis, it is the focal point of “resistance”. And it is America’s president who seems to be backing down (probably under pressure from Gulf allies).
Iran appears to have allowed some Indian and Pakistani oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran may be reeling from air attacks that killed supreme leader Ali Khamenei and may have injured his son, and successor, Mojtaba, but it is exploiting opportunities to isolate Trump.
There are no signs that Iran’s regime is falling or that its long-oppressed and violently abused population is rising against it.
It is trying to extract a price for a war brought to the world by Trump and Netanyahu that none of their friends want to pay.
That is how to beat a superpower.
.
Last edited by NutLoose; 23rd March 2026 at 18:55.
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
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From: Here 'n' there!
I do wonder what the $$$$ total for this escapade is to date and what the final total will be. Still, at least Greenland is safe - for now!
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From: Southern Shores of Old Lusitania Kingdom
My apologies dear ORAC but i think this is very important (normally its you who is the X master )
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From: aus
11 2nd ranger 4th SOAR (McChord)
6 from 82nd airborne and delta (Bragg / Liberty)
4 from nightstalkers and 5th special forces group (fort campbell)
4 from DEVGRU (NAS Oceana)
looks like they are moving SOF over for something big
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
Confirmation/Update on the above.
A significant movement is underway from US Army, Navy and Air Force bases in CONUS to the Middle East comprised of at least 35 C-17 flights since March 12th, with 11 more flights on the way.
Origins:
12-Hunter Army Air Field/Fort Stewart, GA
8-Unknown
7-JB Lewis-McChord, WA
6-Pope Army Air Field/Fort Bragg, NC
4-Campbell Army Airfield/Fort Campbell, KY
4-Gray Army Airfield/JB Lewis-McChord, WA
4-Naval Air Station Oceana, VA
1-MacDill AFB, FL 1-JB McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, NJ
Destinations:
17-Ovda Air Base, Israel
13-King Faisal Air Base, Jordan
4-King Hussein Int'l Airport, Jordan
Origins:
12-Hunter Army Air Field/Fort Stewart, GA
8-Unknown
7-JB Lewis-McChord, WA
6-Pope Army Air Field/Fort Bragg, NC
4-Campbell Army Airfield/Fort Campbell, KY
4-Gray Army Airfield/JB Lewis-McChord, WA
4-Naval Air Station Oceana, VA
1-MacDill AFB, FL 1-JB McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, NJ
Destinations:
17-Ovda Air Base, Israel
13-King Faisal Air Base, Jordan
4-King Hussein Int'l Airport, Jordan
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From: Land of Oz
Just saw on a repeat of Sky News, the Political Editor of The Telegraph claiming the US already had "50,000 troops in the ME, and were shipping over a further 10,000 who would arrive in 1-3 weeks".
Where do these figure come from? Completely OTT and you would expect someone who is Pol Ed of the Torygraph to know her sh!t.
These journos would only have to look here at the airbridge to get an idea of what is happening.
Where do these figure come from? Completely OTT and you would expect someone who is Pol Ed of the Torygraph to know her sh!t.
These journos would only have to look here at the airbridge to get an idea of what is happening.
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
Is it all troops or munitions being moved?
This is not going to be pretty and the US better get use to a rising death toll, if he is going after the island I would imagine Iran has got all the relevant coordinates and every inch of the place mapped to make it a killing field.
.
This is not going to be pretty and the US better get use to a rising death toll, if he is going after the island I would imagine Iran has got all the relevant coordinates and every inch of the place mapped to make it a killing field.
.
Last edited by NutLoose; 24th March 2026 at 04:40.
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From: EDLB
Jepp, for a ground operation the Russians will support Iran the with their knowledge of ground drone warfare made in Ukraine. That can quick become a disaster. The air superiority means nothing for such ground operations.
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From: Wythenshawe
Meanwhile, business as usual for USAF KC-135R and Pegasus tankers, heading to and fro out of Chania and Tel Aviv. Along with airborne refuelling supplied by Stratotankers out of Mildenhall. (B-1's en-route eastwards I surmise).
So no let-up for now.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
Supposition is that they will deploy east to join/support the Tripoli when she arrives in the Gulf later this week.
Yesterday:
Yesterday:
USAF United States Air Force - Coronet East
Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 1x #AE0264 60-0355 - GOLD 83 + MAZDA 31-35 Flt 5x F-35C
Five U.S. Marine Corps F-35Cs as MAZDA 31 flt inbound RAF Lakenheath, supported by GOLD 83.
This will be the first time ever that F-35Cs have visited the U.K. or entered U.K. airspace.
Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 1x #AE0264 60-0355 - GOLD 83 + MAZDA 31-35 Flt 5x F-35C
Five U.S. Marine Corps F-35Cs as MAZDA 31 flt inbound RAF Lakenheath, supported by GOLD 83.
This will be the first time ever that F-35Cs have visited the U.K. or entered U.K. airspace.
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From: Portsmouth