Iran
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
Now, about OPSEC……
French sailor reveals position of aircraft carrier with his fitness app.
Run tracking app Strava shows Charles de Gaulle as it steams across the Med.
Run tracking app Strava shows Charles de Gaulle as it steams across the Med.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
…………….
I talked to two Israeli sources on why Iranian launches continue to increase, despite US-Israeli claims that they have destroyed almost all of the launchers. Here is what they said:
1) The 90–95% drop in volume claimed by CENTCOM earlier in the month was probably a temporary lull as Iran repositioned its remaining launchers into hardened sites. Independent satellite analysis suggests that a significant portion of the "80% destruction" claimed by the IDF actually hit high-fidelity decoys.
2) Despite fewer launchers, the lethality per strike has increased. Iran's shift to cluster warheads has allowed a single missile to impact multiple locations simultaneously, compensating for the lower volume of launches
3) Iran has successfully set up mobile, underground units able to fire at steady rates. Iran used that quiet period to move their remaining ~100-120 heavy launchers into "Super-Hardened" facilities
4) Iran is utilizing its Zolfaqar and Dezful road-mobile launchers. These units move from hardened tunnels to pre-surveyed launch spots, fire, and return underground in under 10 minutes, often before coalition drones can re-task for a strike.
5) Because these launching units are decentralized, it is very hard for US and Israeli intelligence to get info on them.
Israel and the United States do not have an answer to this problem. That is why they are trying escalation on energy sources instead. But that is backfiring.
1) The 90–95% drop in volume claimed by CENTCOM earlier in the month was probably a temporary lull as Iran repositioned its remaining launchers into hardened sites. Independent satellite analysis suggests that a significant portion of the "80% destruction" claimed by the IDF actually hit high-fidelity decoys.
2) Despite fewer launchers, the lethality per strike has increased. Iran's shift to cluster warheads has allowed a single missile to impact multiple locations simultaneously, compensating for the lower volume of launches
3) Iran has successfully set up mobile, underground units able to fire at steady rates. Iran used that quiet period to move their remaining ~100-120 heavy launchers into "Super-Hardened" facilities
4) Iran is utilizing its Zolfaqar and Dezful road-mobile launchers. These units move from hardened tunnels to pre-surveyed launch spots, fire, and return underground in under 10 minutes, often before coalition drones can re-task for a strike.
5) Because these launching units are decentralized, it is very hard for US and Israeli intelligence to get info on them.
Israel and the United States do not have an answer to this problem. That is why they are trying escalation on energy sources instead. But that is backfiring.
Joined: Jun 2025
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 34
Likes: 31
From: Uk
We are definitely not in Kansas, Toto...
Status:
Having torn a scab off a suppurating sore, the US has a problem that it is now dealing with the gangrene following its actions. Multiple actors sit in the wings LMAO-ROFL at the predicament that has arisen, but in the background they all have a vested interest in the outcome,
Team Red
Red-1
Vlad's is the additional instability is in his favour since his best mate decided that it was time to refill Vlad's war chest. Thems' gotta be brilliant kompromat pikkies, has to involve a goat or a stoat or something to justify that, but, nevertheless, Vlad has been handed a lifeline. Well done. Not sure that Ukraine would agree with the tactic.
Red-2
Xi is not too pleased with the squeeze of his strategic reserves which were around 120 days or so. If the punters of China start going onto an enforced diet due to the impending famine conditions that will arise, then Xi's life insurance will probably take a bit of a hike. Taking on Taiwan needs a strategic energy and food reserve, that is not going to be going in the right direction at this time.
Team White
EU
Smart play to stay neutral, until it doesn't work anymore. EU will be hit fairly hard by another energy shock, they weaned off Vlad juice, and there is now a bit of a weanerizing going on with gulf oil. That will hurt, it is only when, not if.
Team Red-White-Blue
Constitutes the USA and those locations where the USA has forward operational bases. And Israel.
Plinking the top dogs of your opponent is either going to win in minutes or result in the next 300 year war. I think we can safely say we are going to get tired of so much winning. Putting the world's economy into the juicer would not have been my pick for ways to earn a Nobel peace prize, but it sure may win the Order of Lenin from Vlad.
Continued whack-a-mole that is not totally debilitating is not likely to get a regime change going, at least, not in Iran, (Suspect that the exits are being lubricated for the convenors of this spectacle). As long as Iran can conduct BAU while interdicting oil shipments to others, there is little prospect for stability. Kharg Island accounts for 90% of all oil exports from Iran, and shutting that down is the fastest way with least casualties to alter the chess board. Boots on the ground would be confronted with the largest concentration of fire power since the Mayor of Hiroshima's bad day out. Iran is in the process of striking gulf states oil infrastructure, and it would appear to be time to declare a DTG for a NOTAM on the opening of the Kharg Island bombing range. The response from China, India, and Russia will be shrill enough that a high bypass filter may be in order, but, it might get some suggestions flowing into whoever is the last man standing in the sausage machine that is Irans line of succession.
Absent debilitating Irans economic capacity, the options A and B remain and one is just not in the nature of the beast, and the other is not going to buff out readily. Putting Irans leaders in a position where they can be removed by the population without the level of murder and mayhem that has occurred on occasions when the populate has risen up would be a good outcome. Right now, reliance on any oil from Iran or the gulf in the near future would seem to be an act of faith.
Status:
Having torn a scab off a suppurating sore, the US has a problem that it is now dealing with the gangrene following its actions. Multiple actors sit in the wings LMAO-ROFL at the predicament that has arisen, but in the background they all have a vested interest in the outcome,
Team Red
Red-1
Vlad's is the additional instability is in his favour since his best mate decided that it was time to refill Vlad's war chest. Thems' gotta be brilliant kompromat pikkies, has to involve a goat or a stoat or something to justify that, but, nevertheless, Vlad has been handed a lifeline. Well done. Not sure that Ukraine would agree with the tactic.
Red-2
Xi is not too pleased with the squeeze of his strategic reserves which were around 120 days or so. If the punters of China start going onto an enforced diet due to the impending famine conditions that will arise, then Xi's life insurance will probably take a bit of a hike. Taking on Taiwan needs a strategic energy and food reserve, that is not going to be going in the right direction at this time.
Team White
EU
Smart play to stay neutral, until it doesn't work anymore. EU will be hit fairly hard by another energy shock, they weaned off Vlad juice, and there is now a bit of a weanerizing going on with gulf oil. That will hurt, it is only when, not if.
Team Red-White-Blue
Constitutes the USA and those locations where the USA has forward operational bases. And Israel.
Plinking the top dogs of your opponent is either going to win in minutes or result in the next 300 year war. I think we can safely say we are going to get tired of so much winning. Putting the world's economy into the juicer would not have been my pick for ways to earn a Nobel peace prize, but it sure may win the Order of Lenin from Vlad.
Continued whack-a-mole that is not totally debilitating is not likely to get a regime change going, at least, not in Iran, (Suspect that the exits are being lubricated for the convenors of this spectacle). As long as Iran can conduct BAU while interdicting oil shipments to others, there is little prospect for stability. Kharg Island accounts for 90% of all oil exports from Iran, and shutting that down is the fastest way with least casualties to alter the chess board. Boots on the ground would be confronted with the largest concentration of fire power since the Mayor of Hiroshima's bad day out. Iran is in the process of striking gulf states oil infrastructure, and it would appear to be time to declare a DTG for a NOTAM on the opening of the Kharg Island bombing range. The response from China, India, and Russia will be shrill enough that a high bypass filter may be in order, but, it might get some suggestions flowing into whoever is the last man standing in the sausage machine that is Irans line of succession.
Absent debilitating Irans economic capacity, the options A and B remain and one is just not in the nature of the beast, and the other is not going to buff out readily. Putting Irans leaders in a position where they can be removed by the population without the level of murder and mayhem that has occurred on occasions when the populate has risen up would be a good outcome. Right now, reliance on any oil from Iran or the gulf in the near future would seem to be an act of faith.
Joined: Jan 2008
Aviation Qualifications: SLF
Posts: 1,016
Likes: 1,065
From: Australia
Iran wins by survival. It's survived previous wars and it will survive this one. Look what happened to Afghanistan. The only way Iran will become democratic is either an internal uprising supported by the military or an all out allied invasion.
Oil prices soar. Oil runs out. Trump's political standing diminishes. The clock is ticking.
Who has time on their side?
Oil prices soar. Oil runs out. Trump's political standing diminishes. The clock is ticking.
Who has time on their side?
Joined: Jul 2013
Aviation Qualifications: Non-Aircrew
Posts: 1,388
Likes: 675
From: Within AM radio broadcast range of downtown Chicago
From material in a recent post by ORAC . . .
"I talked to two Israeli sources on why Iranian launches continue to increase, despite US-Israeli claims that they have destroyed almost all of the launchers. Here is what they said: . . ."
1. None of the tactics reportedly pursued by Irani missile (and drone) forces would appear to be so sophisticated that it would be reasonable to assess that both the U.S. and the Israelis, or either one of them, were unaware of Irani readiness and capability to make these specific moves, including the various means of gaining deception and cover.
2. Intelligence successes by the Israelis in the past few years have been impressive (even if you're staunchly anti-Israel or even just opposed to Israel's single-minded and ruthless approach to its national security interests, denying these successes would be pretty ridiculous, or at least denied in vain.)
3. It would appear reasonable to assess that, given sufficient time and with the perhaps harder assumption that the respective intelligence capabilities of both the Americans and the Israelis will be deployed calmly and with focused attention, the Iranis can run and to some extent hide, but like the established players tell the rookies on the American gridiron, Not For Long (for those who think only of FIFA when "football" is uttered, that's the N.F.L.).
4. But time is an escalating issue now, due to the energy infrastructure attacks and destruction, which compound the market trauma from closure of the Straits of Hormuz. But consider this alternative reasoning (no, not based on alternative facts, just a different set of inferences and implications than some have articulated, and certainly different from the all-Trump, all-the-time media and new-media echo chambers). The energy sector problems (both infrastructure and free passage through the Hormuz chokepoint) are very serious and no end in sight. Okay.
What amount of imagination is needed to picture the disruption which would likely if not certainly result from Iran applying nuclear coercion over some one of the many grievances which agitate the theocracy? Worse, what does the disruption look like if (better angels forbid) a nuclear device were to be detonated in the Gulf, or delivered elsewhere? I do not regard these questions as improperly venturing into the "unthinkable". In my admittedly only barely semi-professional studies in the national security and military affairs realms I have not yet encountered any Irani doctrine or doctrinal writer proclaiming that "nuclear conflict is unwinnable." To the contrary, their - to most all Western sensibilities and probably most Eastern sensibilities as well - extreme religious-based zealotry suggests that nuclear use would be a better path to martyrdom. Their proxies, after all, relish in enunciating, "we love death more than you love life."
So without minimizing the harmful consequences being visited upon the energy sector, or gaslighting those who focus upon those issues, just consider how much worse it would be with a nuclear-armed Iran which played to its character, a character which has been consistently demonstrated for, lo, 47 years.
A note on bias. I can tell you where I was when I heard the news of the failure of the rescue mission for the hostages held after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. After the news of that unbelievable failure, lunch at the Chicago Playboy Club was never the same. (Dinner at the Lincoln Park location after it moved from downtown, however, was always fun . . . but I digress.)
Almost last, I think it's worthwhile, maybe even important, to give props to the Saudis. They acquired F-15s at least as early as 1982 or '83 (the photograph on the cover of an edition of Aviation Week & Space Technology in the summer of '82 or '83 featured, iirc, two Saudi McDonnell Douglas F-15 Eagles in flight over, again iirc, King Abdulaziz Airport. The KAS air element has significant capability, is what I'm getting at, and they are serving as a force for restraint, on both sides (or more correctly, all three sides).
Last, it is worth recalling sometimes that things work very differently in the modern State of Israel. There is nearly universal military training and service, and it is quite rather co-ed (at least in the obligation for training and some length of service). I know not everyone who reads the forum was alive when Richard J. Daley was Mayor of Chicago, and many might not care anything about his record or actions (like, ordering the Chicago Cops to assault the anti-war protestors during the 1968 Democratic National Convention). But one thing Hizzoner said is relevant outside of the context in which he said it. About the people who were engaged in violent rioting during one of the civil disorders provoked and instigated by racial violence and injustice - and specifically (iirc the specific instance), Mayor Daley rhetorically asked, "What trees do they plant?" One of the major combatants in this war has made the desert bloom for several decades. One of the other major combatants massacres protesters against an oppressive regime by the thousands. Something-something about "just war" (Daley was South Side Irish, you understand).
"I talked to two Israeli sources on why Iranian launches continue to increase, despite US-Israeli claims that they have destroyed almost all of the launchers. Here is what they said: . . ."
1. None of the tactics reportedly pursued by Irani missile (and drone) forces would appear to be so sophisticated that it would be reasonable to assess that both the U.S. and the Israelis, or either one of them, were unaware of Irani readiness and capability to make these specific moves, including the various means of gaining deception and cover.
2. Intelligence successes by the Israelis in the past few years have been impressive (even if you're staunchly anti-Israel or even just opposed to Israel's single-minded and ruthless approach to its national security interests, denying these successes would be pretty ridiculous, or at least denied in vain.)
3. It would appear reasonable to assess that, given sufficient time and with the perhaps harder assumption that the respective intelligence capabilities of both the Americans and the Israelis will be deployed calmly and with focused attention, the Iranis can run and to some extent hide, but like the established players tell the rookies on the American gridiron, Not For Long (for those who think only of FIFA when "football" is uttered, that's the N.F.L.).
4. But time is an escalating issue now, due to the energy infrastructure attacks and destruction, which compound the market trauma from closure of the Straits of Hormuz. But consider this alternative reasoning (no, not based on alternative facts, just a different set of inferences and implications than some have articulated, and certainly different from the all-Trump, all-the-time media and new-media echo chambers). The energy sector problems (both infrastructure and free passage through the Hormuz chokepoint) are very serious and no end in sight. Okay.
What amount of imagination is needed to picture the disruption which would likely if not certainly result from Iran applying nuclear coercion over some one of the many grievances which agitate the theocracy? Worse, what does the disruption look like if (better angels forbid) a nuclear device were to be detonated in the Gulf, or delivered elsewhere? I do not regard these questions as improperly venturing into the "unthinkable". In my admittedly only barely semi-professional studies in the national security and military affairs realms I have not yet encountered any Irani doctrine or doctrinal writer proclaiming that "nuclear conflict is unwinnable." To the contrary, their - to most all Western sensibilities and probably most Eastern sensibilities as well - extreme religious-based zealotry suggests that nuclear use would be a better path to martyrdom. Their proxies, after all, relish in enunciating, "we love death more than you love life."
So without minimizing the harmful consequences being visited upon the energy sector, or gaslighting those who focus upon those issues, just consider how much worse it would be with a nuclear-armed Iran which played to its character, a character which has been consistently demonstrated for, lo, 47 years.
A note on bias. I can tell you where I was when I heard the news of the failure of the rescue mission for the hostages held after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. After the news of that unbelievable failure, lunch at the Chicago Playboy Club was never the same. (Dinner at the Lincoln Park location after it moved from downtown, however, was always fun . . . but I digress.)
Almost last, I think it's worthwhile, maybe even important, to give props to the Saudis. They acquired F-15s at least as early as 1982 or '83 (the photograph on the cover of an edition of Aviation Week & Space Technology in the summer of '82 or '83 featured, iirc, two Saudi McDonnell Douglas F-15 Eagles in flight over, again iirc, King Abdulaziz Airport. The KAS air element has significant capability, is what I'm getting at, and they are serving as a force for restraint, on both sides (or more correctly, all three sides).
Last, it is worth recalling sometimes that things work very differently in the modern State of Israel. There is nearly universal military training and service, and it is quite rather co-ed (at least in the obligation for training and some length of service). I know not everyone who reads the forum was alive when Richard J. Daley was Mayor of Chicago, and many might not care anything about his record or actions (like, ordering the Chicago Cops to assault the anti-war protestors during the 1968 Democratic National Convention). But one thing Hizzoner said is relevant outside of the context in which he said it. About the people who were engaged in violent rioting during one of the civil disorders provoked and instigated by racial violence and injustice - and specifically (iirc the specific instance), Mayor Daley rhetorically asked, "What trees do they plant?" One of the major combatants in this war has made the desert bloom for several decades. One of the other major combatants massacres protesters against an oppressive regime by the thousands. Something-something about "just war" (Daley was South Side Irish, you understand).
Last edited by WillowRun 6-3; 20th March 2026 at 03:26.
Joined: Jun 2001
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 4,087
Likes: 4,426
From: 3rd Rock, #29B
"lets go and blow up the world, seems like a great idea"
"oh, alright, got nothing else on other than a pedicure"
flash.... bang,
The End.
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 34
Likes: 24
From: Oslo, Norway
fdr, please keep it flowing
Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 137
Likes: 72
From: UK
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
I think this may be over-simplifying things. I'm sure historically your numbers are correct. But it is a fact that the world energy market is actual one market. And any load of energy can and will be shifted to where it can sell for the highest price.
See this link to a JB thread: Petrol Shortage
Joined: Apr 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATP+Mil
Posts: 10,959
Likes: 1,814
From: EGDC
Willow run
Perhaps your view of history doesn't include who (spoiler alert, the CIA and MI6) orchestrated the coup in Iran in 1953 to depose a prime minister who wanted to nationalise his country's oil industry which the West had been profiting from for many years.
They put in place the Shah, very strongly backed by the US, until the revolution in 1979 when he was deposed and the present lot took over.
Ask yourself if the US brought the Iran nuclear threat about by alienating a foreign country, all in the name of oil and profits. Oh and giving Israel nuclear weapons, thus creating a Middle East arms race.
Or you could keep believing you are the good guys in the white hats.....
So without minimizing the harmful consequences being visited upon the energy sector, or gaslighting those who focus upon those issues, just consider how much worse it would be with a nuclear-armed Iran which played to its character, a character which has been consistently demonstrated for, lo, 47 years.
They put in place the Shah, very strongly backed by the US, until the revolution in 1979 when he was deposed and the present lot took over.
Ask yourself if the US brought the Iran nuclear threat about by alienating a foreign country, all in the name of oil and profits. Oh and giving Israel nuclear weapons, thus creating a Middle East arms race.
Or you could keep believing you are the good guys in the white hats.....
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
Early this morning, multiple Iranian attack drones hit Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery, setting several areas of the refinery complex ablaze and causing a partial shutdown.
KPC Press Release on this morning’s incident at Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
SECOND ARG EN ROUTE: Boxer ARG Deploys
Mar 18 imagery caught the USS Boxer (LHD-4) operating just outside of San Diego. The Wasp-class amphibious assault ship is officially underway, heading west with the rest of the Boxer ARG to join Operation Epic Fury.
With the Tripoli ARG currently clearing the Strait of Malacca, this makes two full Amphibious Ready Groups actively surging toward the ME.
Expect a long transit ahead.
Will be tracking her across the Pacific!
Mar 18 imagery caught the USS Boxer (LHD-4) operating just outside of San Diego. The Wasp-class amphibious assault ship is officially underway, heading west with the rest of the Boxer ARG to join Operation Epic Fury.
With the Tripoli ARG currently clearing the Strait of Malacca, this makes two full Amphibious Ready Groups actively surging toward the ME.
Expect a long transit ahead.
Will be tracking her across the Pacific!
The Boxer Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), comprised of the USS Boxer (LHD-4), USS Comstock (LSD-45), and the USS Portland (LPD-27) with the embarked 11th Marine Expeditionary Group (MEU), is on its way to the Middle East after departing the U.S. west coast for deployment.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
Roulement or reinforcement?
USAF United States Air Force - Coronet East
Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 6x
#AE0509 62-3552 - GOLD 31
#AE015E 59-1512 - GOLD 32
#AE0486 59-1468 - GOLD 34
#AE0385 59-1467 - GOLD 21
#AE035E 58-0077 - GOLD 22
#AE047B 58-0117 - GOLD 24
Six, soon to be eight, KC-135s are on a Coronet East 048 tasking this morning dragging what I suspect are 12x "SJ" F-15E Strike Eagles from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in Goldsboro, North Carolina to RAF Lakenheath.
GOLD 21/22 and GOLD 31/32 appear to be collecting them from Seymour Johnson, and GOLD 24/34 have departed RAF Mildenhall this morning. We'll most likely see a GOLD 23 and GOLD 33 depart Bangor ANGB later this morning.
There have been C-17s flying from Seymour Johnson AFB to Ovda Air Base in Israel in the past few days.
Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 6x
#AE0509 62-3552 - GOLD 31
#AE015E 59-1512 - GOLD 32
#AE0486 59-1468 - GOLD 34
#AE0385 59-1467 - GOLD 21
#AE035E 58-0077 - GOLD 22
#AE047B 58-0117 - GOLD 24
Six, soon to be eight, KC-135s are on a Coronet East 048 tasking this morning dragging what I suspect are 12x "SJ" F-15E Strike Eagles from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in Goldsboro, North Carolina to RAF Lakenheath.
GOLD 21/22 and GOLD 31/32 appear to be collecting them from Seymour Johnson, and GOLD 24/34 have departed RAF Mildenhall this morning. We'll most likely see a GOLD 23 and GOLD 33 depart Bangor ANGB later this morning.
There have been C-17s flying from Seymour Johnson AFB to Ovda Air Base in Israel in the past few days.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
State Dept approves $8 billion emergency FMS to Kuwait
The US State Department has invoked the AECA emergency clause to approve a possible Foreign Military Sale to Kuwait of 8 Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS) radars, plus associated equipment and services for an estimated cost of $8 billion.
This would make Kuwait the 2nd international customer for LTAMDS, behind Poland.
The US State Department has invoked the AECA emergency clause to approve a possible Foreign Military Sale to Kuwait of 8 Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS) radars, plus associated equipment and services for an estimated cost of $8 billion.
This would make Kuwait the 2nd international customer for LTAMDS, behind Poland.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
Israel still intent on working down the leadership chain.
ELIMINATED: Ali Mohammad Naini, the Spokesperson and Head of the Public Relations Array of the IRGC.
Naini served in several propaganda and public relations roles. In his role as the IRGC's main propagandist for the past 2 years, he disseminated the regime's terrorist propaganda to its proxies across the Middle East in order to influence and advance terror attacks against Israel.
Naini served in several propaganda and public relations roles. In his role as the IRGC's main propagandist for the past 2 years, he disseminated the regime's terrorist propaganda to its proxies across the Middle East in order to influence and advance terror attacks against Israel.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
In exchange for assistance with interceptor drones, Ukraine is asking Qatar to hand over Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets, - Intelligence Online*.
Qatar currently has up to 12 Mirage fighter jets stored at its bases.
Qatar currently has up to 12 Mirage fighter jets stored at its bases.
Kyiv-Doha antidrone cooperation hits snag over Mirage flee
The small team of anti-drone specialists dispatched a few days ago by Kyiv to Doha to assist Qatar against drones launched by Iran is seeing its progress hampered by defence industry negotiations. In return for its assistance, Kyiv is asking Doha to hand over its fleet of 12 second-hand Mirage 2000-5s.
Ukraine has long coveted these aircraft, as have other countries and brokers (IO, 19/03/24), but Doha is currently turning a deaf ear to Kyiv's request. As a result, negotiations to bolster Qatar's anti-drone capabilities have stalled.
The small team of anti-drone specialists dispatched a few days ago by Kyiv to Doha to assist Qatar against drones launched by Iran is seeing its progress hampered by defence industry negotiations. In return for its assistance, Kyiv is asking Doha to hand over its fleet of 12 second-hand Mirage 2000-5s.
Ukraine has long coveted these aircraft, as have other countries and brokers (IO, 19/03/24), but Doha is currently turning a deaf ear to Kyiv's request. As a result, negotiations to bolster Qatar's anti-drone capabilities have stalled.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
As part of ongoing efforts to secure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, US Forces have been heavily striking IRGC bases on Qeshm Island.
On March 17, Sentinel-2 imagery @CopernicusEU revealed that 2 bunkers storing UAVs and missiles at the UAV airfield were completely destroyed, along with 3 buildings in the IRGC naval base located north of the airfield.
In addition, imagery on March 13 reveals that at least 6 buildings were also destroyed at the UAV airfield, where mobile ground control stations, Mohajer-6 UAVs, and Shahed 171 UAVs are known to be stored from past imagery.
Also revealed are at least 8 buildings destroyed at the naval base.
This makes a total of 19 buildings destroyed at these two collocated IRGC sites since the start of major combat operations.
On March 17, Sentinel-2 imagery @CopernicusEU revealed that 2 bunkers storing UAVs and missiles at the UAV airfield were completely destroyed, along with 3 buildings in the IRGC naval base located north of the airfield.
In addition, imagery on March 13 reveals that at least 6 buildings were also destroyed at the UAV airfield, where mobile ground control stations, Mohajer-6 UAVs, and Shahed 171 UAVs are known to be stored from past imagery.
Also revealed are at least 8 buildings destroyed at the naval base.
This makes a total of 19 buildings destroyed at these two collocated IRGC sites since the start of major combat operations.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
Another attack we haven’t talked much about because of the massive Ras Laffan strikes.
Abu Dhabi confirms operations at Habshan and Bab have been suspended after falling debris from intercepted missiles. No injuries reported.
But these are not peripheral assets. Bab alone produces ~484,000 b/d — about 10% of UAE output. ADNOC Onshore overall accounts for ~40% of liquids. Habshan and Bab are also critical gas processing hubs feeding a system that supplies ~75% of the UAE’s sales gas.
This is where it escalates: Disruption here doesn’t stay local.
.
Everything is interconnected. And this sits at the core of ADNOC’s growth plans, with Onshore expected to deliver nearly half of the capacity needed to reach 5 million b/d.
This is not just a temporary disruption. It’s a strike at the heart of the UAE’s energy system – with implications for supply, industry, and long-term capacity growth.
Abu Dhabi confirms operations at Habshan and Bab have been suspended after falling debris from intercepted missiles. No injuries reported.
But these are not peripheral assets. Bab alone produces ~484,000 b/d — about 10% of UAE output. ADNOC Onshore overall accounts for ~40% of liquids. Habshan and Bab are also critical gas processing hubs feeding a system that supplies ~75% of the UAE’s sales gas.
This is where it escalates: Disruption here doesn’t stay local.
.
- It hits power generation in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, with gas flows to EWEC and Dubai Supply Authority under pressure.
- It hits industry – Emirates Aluminium, Emirates Steel, Borouge.
- It hits exports – NGLs, condensate, sulphur flows through Ruwais and Etihad Rail.
Everything is interconnected. And this sits at the core of ADNOC’s growth plans, with Onshore expected to deliver nearly half of the capacity needed to reach 5 million b/d.
This is not just a temporary disruption. It’s a strike at the heart of the UAE’s energy system – with implications for supply, industry, and long-term capacity growth.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
B-52 mission launched yesterday returned this morning.
Most interesting thing? It routed over France.........
Most interesting thing? It routed over France.........
Bomber Mission XXV - BUFFS go ROME-ing!
#FreeIran! --- Operation EPIC FURY ---
Yesterday afternoon (19th March 2026) the US bomber fleet at RAF Fairford (EGVA) launched 2x B-52H "Stratofortress" bombers to Iran armed with cruise missiles.
The bombers have just landed back at Fairford and were actively pinging on FR24/ADSB on their way home so OPSEC concerns are obviously not a thing now. The aircraft involved in this mission are:
Mission XXV
B-52H "ROME84" 61-0035 #AE58AF "Witches Brew"
B-52H "ROME85" 60-0007 #AE5871 "Guardians of the Upper Realm"
KC-135 "FIST??" ? (Believed from Ramstein)
KC-135 "FIST??" ? (Believed from Ramstein)
KC-135 "FIST??" ? (Believed from Ramstein)
KC-135 "FIST64" ? (From Sofia)
KC-135R "FIST65" 63-8000 #AE0671 (From Sofia)
KC-135 "FIST66" ? (From Sofia)
#FreeIran! --- Operation EPIC FURY ---
Yesterday afternoon (19th March 2026) the US bomber fleet at RAF Fairford (EGVA) launched 2x B-52H "Stratofortress" bombers to Iran armed with cruise missiles.
The bombers have just landed back at Fairford and were actively pinging on FR24/ADSB on their way home so OPSEC concerns are obviously not a thing now. The aircraft involved in this mission are:
Mission XXV
B-52H "ROME84" 61-0035 #AE58AF "Witches Brew"
B-52H "ROME85" 60-0007 #AE5871 "Guardians of the Upper Realm"
KC-135 "FIST??" ? (Believed from Ramstein)
KC-135 "FIST??" ? (Believed from Ramstein)
KC-135 "FIST??" ? (Believed from Ramstein)
KC-135 "FIST64" ? (From Sofia)
KC-135R "FIST65" 63-8000 #AE0671 (From Sofia)
KC-135 "FIST66" ? (From Sofia)