Iran

[AR1]

Back to the operation and the response by Iran. Are we seeing evidence of the Iranians making battle driven pipeline upgrades to existing (remaining?) capabilities? Optical SAM guidance, apparently increased range from multi stage ballistics, multiple warheads? Thinking back to how UK capability upgrades came through during GW1, Falklands etc - Impressive for a country getting it handed to them from above if so.

[ORAC]

If they're Charlies, they won't be joining Tripoli....

Hence the Join/Support. Can't operate off the deck, but they are USMC and can operate from a nearby land base to support the MEU with AAR support. More than enough hose unit fitted KC-135/KC-46 in theatre.

With the USS Ford hors de combat in Crete I have to wonder if their air wing will also leave the ship and deploy nearer the fight?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrier_Air_Wing_Eight

[ORAC]

................

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/20...214401374?s=20

​​​​​​​According to the Wall Street Journal, citing two U.S. officials, the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, the amphibious landing dock USS New Orleans and roughly 2,200 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit will cross into U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility on Friday.

Notably, the same day that U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s 5 day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires.

[ORAC]

Handing over the islands to the UAE would be a major political move considering their history* .....

https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/...258823439?s=20

​​​​​​​BREAKING: The U.S. government is reportedly planning operations involving the three Iranian islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb.

The United States is increasing its military presence in the Middle East while maintaining an element of surprise by signaling negotiations with the new leader of the Islamic regime, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Today, four U.S. Navy E-2D Hawkeyes are en route to Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, six EA-18G Growlers were deployed to Ovda Airbase in Israel yesterday, and 12 F-16Cs from the 77th and 79th Fighter Squadrons of the U.S. Air Force are now being transferred there as well. Two amphibious assault ships and an additional carrier strike group are also heading to the region.

As part of this strategy, the United States is reportedly engaging in negotiations while preparing for a potential takeover of the islands, with the intention of transferring Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb to the UAE in exchange for silencing the Persian Gulf states who have been protesting this war.

* ​​​​​​​Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seizur...d_Lesser_Tunbs

[Buster Hyman]

This was an eye opener! alluded to a lot on Pprune, but I didn’t realise just how bad it is. The RAN looks really good now! 🤨

You Tube

[Lonewolf_50]

The War of Words continues, information, and misinformation, etc: here are a few examples

U.S. Central Command issued a sharp denial on Sunday, March 22, to persistent Iranian claims that its forces shot down an American F-15 fighter jet, calling the reports outright false and pointing to an unbroken record of air superiority in the escalating conflict. In a post shared on X, CENTCOM stated plainly:
“Rumors claim the Iranian regime recently shot down a U.S. F-15 over Iran. FALSE.
U.S. forces have flown more than 8,000 combat flights during Operation Epic Fury. No U.S. fighter aircraft have been shot down by Iran. TRUE.”

Iran taking credit for Kuwait's kills? They might be doing that for internal consumption. The information war is 24/7.

The {CENTCOM} statement came amid a new wave of Iranian media assertions, including from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps channels, alleging the downing of an F-15E Strike Eagle in recent days.
Tehran has repeatedly aired such claims since the U.S.-led air campaign began in late February, often with grainy video or photographs that military analysts have deemed inconclusive or old news.
Iranian authorities state that an “enemy” F-15 fighter jet was shot down by air defence systems after being intercepted over the country’s southern coast near Hormuz Island.
Iranian state media reported that air defences intercepted and hit an “enemy F-15” after it was tracked over the southern coast near Hormuz Island.
“An invading fighter jet was targeted by the army’s air defence,” the statement said.
Iran’s Press TV also reported the incident and shared a video claiming to show the jet being shot down.
A 29-second video clip, believed to show radar or infrared tracking, has circulated online.
The footage appears to capture missile launches targeting a fast-moving object identified as a U.S. F-15 over southern Iran.

On a more lighthearted note, I saw this the other day and laughed:

‘Hey Trump, you’re fired’:
Iranian military spokesman

As to targeting Iranian leadership, this article has some interesting bits in it for every country that has come to rely on surveillance cameras. It is a longish article, so I stuffed the second half into a spoiler. I am puzzled at why these sources and methods are being openly discussed...

The Associated Press - Business News
Iran built a vast camera network to control dissent. Israel turned it into a targeting tool
Story by DAKE KANG and SAM MEDNICK

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — The role of Israel's hijacking of Iran’s street cameras in the killing of the country’s supreme leader underscores how surveillance systems are increasingly being targeted by adversaries in wartime. Hundreds of millions of cameras have been installed above shops, in homes and on street corners across the world, many connected to the internet and poorly secured. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have enabled militaries and intelligence agencies to sift through vast amounts of surveillance footage and identify targets.

On Feb. 28, Israel vividly demonstrated the potential of such systems to be hacked and used against adversaries when Israel tracked down Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with the help of Tehran’s own street cameras - despite repeated warnings that Iran’s surveillance systems had been compromised, according to interviews and an Associated Press review of leaked data, public statements and news reports.

The use of hacked surveillance cameras among other intelligence in the operation to kill Khamenei was described to the AP by an intelligence official with knowledge of the operation and another person who was briefed on the operation. Neither was authorized to speak with the media and both shared information on condition of anonymity.

Iran has installed tens of thousands of cameras in its capital in response to waves of protests, most recently in January, when massive nationwide demonstrations ended in a bloody crackdown that killed many thousands of Iranians.

That Tehran’s cameras were compromised was no secret: the city’s cameras were repeatedly hacked starting in 2021, and last year, a senior Iranian politician warned publicly that cameras had been compromised by Israel, posing a national security threat.

Conor Healy, director of research at surveillance research publication IPVM, said Khamenei’s killing illustrates a pressing security dilemma for governments seeking to quash dissent.

“The irony is that the infrastructure authoritarian states build to make their rule unassailable may be what makes their leaders most visible to the people trying to kill them,” Healy said. “Do you trust who is watching?”

Spoiler

 

 

Warning signs
For years, cybersecurity experts have warned that cameras could be hacked for war.

In 2019, security engineer Paul Marrapese discovered he could easily hack millions of cameras from the comfort of his home office in California.

Despite speaking up repeatedly since, the number of unprotected cameras only continues to grow. A scan of unprotected camera feeds this year turned up nearly three million hits in almost every country in the world, Marrapese told AP, including nearly 2,000 cameras in Iran alone.

“There are millions and millions and millions of these throughout the world,” Marrapese said. Many, he added, are trivially easy to hack: “They’re just dumb little things. ... It’s fish in a barrel.”

Companies have advertised cameras hooked up online, accessible with cellphones, with feeds easily diverted by hackers. Many are installed with minimal security by unsophisticated users who fail to set up passwords or install security patches. Securing cameras takes constant vigilance, but hacking them takes identifying just one exposed vulnerability, such as an outdated system or a generic password like “1234.”

Even surveillance systems set up by governments on networks sealed off from the internet are vulnerable: It takes just one insider turncoat to compromise such systems.

“Humans are kind of the weakest link,” Marrapese said. “There’s really only so much you can do.”

Eyal Hulata, Israel’s former national security adviser and a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said Israel is under constant cyberattacks from Iran but has so far been able to defend against it.

“There is high alert on all cyber fronts,” he said.

For years, hacking cameras for war remained theoretical. But in 2023, Hamas hacked surveillance cameras in southern Israel ahead of its Oct. 7 attack, allowing the group to monitor Israeli army patrols and assisting the attack, according to Israeli media. That same year, a Ukrainian official told reporters that Russia attempted to hijack cameras near missile targets, a trend that continued in 2024 when Russians hacked cameras in Kyiv and last year, when they hacked cameras at border crossings.

Experts say advances in AI have allowed militaries to overcome a critical hurdle in weaponizing hacked footage: sifting through huge amounts of video to identify people, vehicles, and other targets, a task that once took teams of analysts weeks or months but can now be done in real time. With a simple keyword search, AI can scan feeds and return results almost immediately.

“It used to be that you could hack the cameras, but humans had to do the real work of figuring out where the person was,” said cryptographer and security expert Bruce Schneier. “With AI systems ... you can do a lot more automatically.”

The despot's dilemma
Iran’s cameras have been repeatedly hacked over the past few years.

In 2021, an Iranian exile group leaked footage of abuses at Tehran’s notorious Evin prison. In 2022, another group claimed it hacked over 5,000 cameras around Tehran, dumping gigabytes of surveillance footage and internal data on a Telegram channel.

Then, during a 12-day war last summer, Israel used Tehran’s cameras to track and bomb the location of a meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, injuring Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, according to Iranian lawmakers and an Israeli documentary.

“All the cameras at our intersections are in the hands of Israel,” Mahmoud Nabavian, deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, told Iranian media in September. “Everything on the internet is in their hands ... if we move, they will find out.”

The vulnerabilities have come amid Iran’s stepped-up use of surveillance cameras after a series of protests roiled the country. Subway cameras, for example, are used to detect when women don’t don the country’s mandatory hijab, or headscarf, using facial recognition to identify violators.

But data collected to consolidate control creates a ripe target for hackers, said researcher Michael Caster, who investigated China's sales of surveillance technology to Iran.

“Malicious parties can more easily gain access," Caster said.

Iran in particular, long sanctioned by the West, faces difficulties in getting up-to-date hardware and software, often relying on Chinese-manufactured electronics or older systems. Pirated versions of Windows and other software are common. That makes it easier for potential hackers to target the country.

The Financial Times earlier reported on the use of cameras in Khamenei’s killing.

The person briefed on the operation who spoke to the AP said that for years almost all the traffic cameras in Tehran had been hacked and the information transferred to servers in Israel. At least one camera was at an angle that allowed Israel to track daily movements of people, such as where they parked their cars near Iran’s leadership compound, the two people said.

Algorithms helped provide information including people’s addresses, routes they took to work and who protected them, according to the person briefed on the operation. That same person said the attack had been planned for months, but the operation was expedited once it was determined that Khamenei and his top officials would be in the leadership compound that morning.

Israel’s prime minister’s office didn’t respond to request for comment.

You're fired
Col. Amit Assa, a former official with Israel’s Shin Bet domestic security service, said that such operations are powered by many sources of intelligence, such as undercover agents and bugged conversations.

However, Assa says cameras play a key role because they allow intelligence officers to identify people, providing key confirmation in deciding on whether to strike.

When you see a person’s face on a screen in the command center, it helps in making the decision to put your “finger on the yellow button, as we say,” he said.

More cameras, more coverage
Check Point Research, a cyber threat intelligence group, says Iranian hacking attacks on cameras have spiked since the beginning of the war, with surges of activity in Israel and Gulf countries such as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

Such hacks could help Iran monitor targets and assess damage after missile strikes, according to Gil Messing, Check Point Research’s chief of staff.

“The more people are installing cameras ... the more area is being covered by these cameras,” Messing said. “It is very easy to use in order to get extra eyes into different places.”

Analysts estimate there are more than one billion security cameras installed worldwide, triple the number a decade ago. Hundreds of millions more are installed every year.

Muhanad Seloom, assistant professor in security studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, said that oil-rich Gulf countries like Qatar have long known their petroleum facilities could be targeted in a war and had their systems tightly secured. But only recently have officials in the region realized that street cameras, too, could be weaponized.

“I don’t think anyone anticipated that these traffic cameras would become targeting tools ... there is alarm all over,” Seloom said. “How come Iran's whole leadership has been decapitated on the first day? ... It is a topic that is being talked about.”

Across the region, governments are on high alert.

Gulf monarchies have barred residents from filming or livestreaming footage of Iranian strikes, with the UAE arresting dozens of people for sharing video of the conflict online. Though aimed in part to protect the country’s reputation, the bans are also motivated by concerns that such footage could be exploited by the Iranian military, Seloom said.

Earlier this month, Israel’s National Cyber Directorate said that it had warned hundreds of camera owners targeted by Iran and urged the public to change passwords and update software to starve off attacks.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said though hacking has long been a concern in the Middle East, its increasing use since the war began was “a wake-up call”.

Still, he said there’s only so much that can be done to patch up vulnerabilities.

“It’s a whack-a-mole,” Vaez said.

[ORAC]

USS Tripoli stopping at the deep harbour port and replenishment depot at Diego Garcia yesterday. Doubtless refuelling, reprovisioning and loading a maximum load of weapons.

Can't identify it myself, but i'll take their word for it.

https://x.com/lobsterlarryliu/status...947131000?s=20

The satellite just passed over the Indian Ocean at 11:46:00 on March 23, 2026 (Beijing time), capturing the moment when the #USSTripoli LHA-7 docked at Diego Garcia.

[ORAC]

Each missile costs around £50K.Hopefully they fire them singly and not in pairs...

https://x.com/Osint613/status/2036412172658409755?s=20

UK troops shot down 14 drones over Iraq overnight, marking their most intense night since the Iran war began, UK defence officials say.

The intercepts were carried out by RAF Regiment units using laser-guided Martlet missiles fired from Rapid Sentry launchers, a system quietly introduced into service.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/MT_Anderson/status/203...791957564?s=20

BDA: Greater Tunb Island (Strait of Hormuz)

Mar 22 imagery reveals an extensive strike package hit Greater Tunb (26.264644, 55.304487). There is significantly more damage here compared to Abu Musa.

Zone A (Inland/Comms): Precision strikes targeted hardened shelters in the center of the island and leveled support buildings near the communication towers.

Zone B (Eastern Harbor): The small harbor has been effectively neutralized. Waterfront buildings are wiped out, and the main pier has been physically detached from the jetty.

Zone C (Airstrip): Several flightline support structures have been damaged or destroyed. Consistent with the Abu Musa strikes, airstrip denial tactics are actively in play across the runway.

The destruction of Iran's island-based chokepoint infrastructure continues...

https://x.com/MT_Anderson/status/203...848618700?s=20

​​​​​​​
BDA: Abu Musa Island (Strait of Hormuz) Mar 22 imagery covers Abu Musa (25.874692, 55.011777), a strategic island for Iranian shipping interdiction at the western chokepoint of the SoH.

Eastern Sector: Several facilities and support structures near the eastern harbor have been leveled.

Airfield Denial: Physical obstructions have been placed across the main airstrip to prevent landings.

Western Sector: The primary small harbor and adjacent waterfront buildings on the west side appear intact at this time.

​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Further update on 82nd Airborne and SF deployments.

https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/20...043937346?s=20

​​​​​​​Operation EPIC FURY – Airlift Surge Analysis (03/14–03/24)

~50 US Air Force C-17 flights observed, with 42 fully attributable routes, showing a high-tempo strategic airlift surge from CONUS into the Middle East via Ramstein.

Origins:
14-KSVN (Hunter AAF)
7-KPOB (Pope AAF)
7-KTCM (McChord AFB)
4-KHOP (Campbell AAF)
4-KNTU (NAS Oceana)
4-KGRF (Gray AAF)
1-KWRI (McGuire)
1-KMCF (MacDill AFB)
8-Unknown

Destinations:
24-Jordan
17-Israel

Units of interest at each origin:

KPOB (Pope AAF / Fort Bragg, NC):
➜ 82nd Airborne
➜ Delta Force
➜ 3rd Special Forces Group

KHOP (Fort Campbell, KY):
➜ 101st Airborne
➜ 160th SOAR KTCM/KGRF (JB Lewis-McChord, WA):
➜ 75th Ranger Regiment (2/75)
➜160th SOAR
➜ 1st Special Forces Group

KNTU (NAS Oceana):
➜ Naval Special Warfare/DEVGRU

KMCF (MacDill AFB, FL):
➜Central Command
➜Special Operations Command

KSVN (Hunter AAF/Fort Stewart, GA):
➜160th SOAR
➜3rd Infantry Division
➜75th Ranger Regiment

​​​​​​​When viewed as a whole, the volume of flights—combined with the diversity of origin bases and the units associated with them—strongly indicates a significant deployment of special operations forces into the region.

[ORAC]

Video

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/...538877411?s=20

​​​​​​​USAF A-10 Warthogs spent most of the day strafing Iranian-backed militia positions around Mosul, Iraq.

[ORAC]

Seems Trump has wanted to take Kharg and the other islands away from Iran since 1987.....

[ORAC]

...............

https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/2...477116783?s=20

Fox News has learned that the Commander of the 82nd Airborne Division Maj Gen Brandon Tegtmeier and his “command element,” members of his headquarters staff, have been ordered to deploy to the Middle East as the Pentagon and White House weigh whether to send the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East for possible land operations.

There has been speculation that the US would use ground forces to possibly take Kharg Island or for other missions inside Iran. This would be a first step needed to plan for such a contingency.

NYT was first to report yesterday that the Pentagon was weighing whether to send the 82nd Airborne.

​​​​​​​https://archive.is/20260323181834/ht...oops-iran.html

[ORAC]

No, not quite there yet...... Just a little bit further to go.....

https://x.com/UKForcesTracker/status...050528457?s=20

​​​​​​​HMS Dragon has arrived at the NATO facility in Souda Bay, Greece ahead of joining operations to defend Cyprus.

Recieved a replenishment-at-sea from RFA Tideforce during the transit to the Eastern Mediterranean.

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Might cause a lull in operations. Floods and severe weather warnings throughout Oman, UAE etc.

https://x.com/WXWatcher07/status/203...807434025?s=20

​​​​​​​Extremely impressive yet highly concerning dynamics at play in the Middle East this week.

An area of low pressure deepening over Iraq is accompanied by very strong wind shear and massive instability across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Oman.

Thunderstorms forming in this environment have the potential to be dangerous and destructive with intense precipitation leading to flooding, large to very large hail, severe winds, and even tornadoes.

[ORAC]

Update on the F-35C deployment - first 5 of 10 from VMFA-311

https://x.com/CVW19752015/status/203...092549865?s=20

Having left MCAS Miramar on March 10, the first 5 of 10 jets from VMFA-311 'Tomcats' finally landed at RAF Lakenheath last night as they head for the F-35C's first land-based combat deployment.

5 more due today before heading east.

​​​​​​​https://x.com/AUX_OSINT/status/2036453601153794552?s=20

​​​​​​​GOLD Crew up again today.

Similar to yesterday, 3x KC-135R/T likely moving another 5x “VMFA-311” F-35C from MCAS Cherry Point (KNKT) to RAF Lakenheath (EGUL).....

​​​​​​​


​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Akrotiri? USS Ford in Crete? Can't see Greece being a target.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/20...747928514?s=20

Following the reported impact near Beirut of fragments from an Iranian medium/intermediate-range ballistic missile that was intercepted earlier today over Northern Lebanon, Lebanese security sources have confirmed to Reuters that a ballistic missile launched from Iran was downed for the first time over Lebanon.

According to one security source, the interception was carried out by an SM-3 or SM-6 launched from a U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The intended target of the missile is currently unknown, however, from the launch trajectory it may have been Cyprus or even Greece.

Well all the reports of trajectory and the location of the wreckage indicates the target was Cyprus - and presumably Akrotiri. Second attempt and all that.

Thankfully the USN does have its Arleigh-Burke AEGIS destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean to intercept. Just a pity HMS Dragon has only just reached as far as Souda Bay and wasn’t in position even to watch.

[NutLoose]

So we are looking at the American ground force of what 10,000, 20,000 troops?
I wish them luck.
Have they not learnt anything from Afghanistan, you may hold little areas, but not the country.

he Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is estimated to have approximately
150,000 to 200,000 active troops, serving as a specialized military branch tasked with protecting Iran's Islamic system. It maintains ground, air, and naval units, along with the elite Quds Force (~5,000+ members) and controls the Basij volunteer militia, which has thousands of members.
Wikipedia +4
Key Personnel and Structure

• Total Personnel: Estimates usually range between 150,000 and 190,000 to 200,000 active duty personnel.
• Ground Forces: Estimated at roughly 150,000, focusing on internal security and unconventional warfare.
• Quds Force (Elite Overseas): Thought to number around 2,000–5,000, with some estimates ranging up to 15,000.
• Basij Resistance Force (Paramilitary): Controls a large volunteer militia, with approximately 100,000 active members and up to 600,000 combat-capable personnel.
• Naval Forces: Operates specialized forces, including a large fleet of small, armed speedboats, which totaled over 3,000–5,000 in 2020 reports.
  

Key Responsibilities

• Internal Security: Suppression of domestic dissent and protests (e.g., 2009, 2022 protests).
• External Operations: The Quds force manages regional allies and proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and various groups in Syria and Iraq.
• Economic Influence: The IRGC controls significant parts of the Iranian economy, including construction, engineering, and energy sectors.
  BBC +4

The IRGC acts independently of the regular army and answers directly to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

[SWBKCB]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

So we are looking at the American ground force of what 10,000, 20,000 troops?
I wish them luck.
Have they not learnt anything from Afghanistan, you may hold little areas, but not the country.

Presumably the intention is to hold enough to be able to open the Straits. As you say, good luck!

[judyjudy]

Hopefully they’ll have the wherewithal to dodge all the incoming such activity is sure to attract