Iran
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From: Maryland, USA
It looks to me like the A-10 in the video is in the markings of the former 104th FS of the Maryland ANG. Some 104th aircraft were retired, but some were transferred to other units. If the video is authentic (i.e., recent), then its original markings were retained by the gaining unit. (Also, the video quality looks better than what is normally seen from filming of combat.)
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
The USA is moving a huge amount of hardware into theatre at the moment. This will be to pressure Iran into an agreement or to put the proverbial boots on the ground. A couple of weeks ago when the MEU was first reported as heading that way, the conversation was about Kharg Island. Then I dismissed that and suggested the islands in the SoH as being a more likely threat.
However, I think I may be wrong. There are only two ways out of this:
1. A negotiated deal that provides guarantees that the SoH stays open.
2. Securing the SoH by military force.
Option 1 seems unlikely and the mood music is depressing. Trump needs something that demonstrate that he is a winner.
Option 2 is being studied by the best brains at CENTCOM and elsewhere and various options will be being presented up the chain. The final call being made by the CinC. The lure of taking over the Straight will be strong and one that KSA seems to favour and may find truck with other nations.
But how? I will rule out the attack on the various islands except as a prelude. The islands also sit within artillery range of the mainland. Putting troops on them just makes them targets. The County of Bander Abbas would make sense. It's coastline is where most of the anti shipping missiles are housed and the port would be a prize. Plenty of flatish farmland to the East. Limited road access along the coast or through mountain valleys to the North. Definitely a tough ask but
I pray that Option 1 comes good.
However, I think I may be wrong. There are only two ways out of this:
1. A negotiated deal that provides guarantees that the SoH stays open.
2. Securing the SoH by military force.
Option 1 seems unlikely and the mood music is depressing. Trump needs something that demonstrate that he is a winner.
Option 2 is being studied by the best brains at CENTCOM and elsewhere and various options will be being presented up the chain. The final call being made by the CinC. The lure of taking over the Straight will be strong and one that KSA seems to favour and may find truck with other nations.
But how? I will rule out the attack on the various islands except as a prelude. The islands also sit within artillery range of the mainland. Putting troops on them just makes them targets. The County of Bander Abbas would make sense. It's coastline is where most of the anti shipping missiles are housed and the port would be a prize. Plenty of flatish farmland to the East. Limited road access along the coast or through mountain valleys to the North. Definitely a tough ask but
I pray that Option 1 comes good.
"Breaker Breaker..."
As entertaining as the reparations part is, the history of any success with that from the USA is pretty slim, in fact, Vietnam never received any reparations, instead actually paid the US 145m towards the cost of the war waged against it. Back when civilisation was not civilised (last week?), at least pre Treaty of Versailles, reparations were not a codified concept, and since then, it didn't work out well for France, and demands through the ICJ have generally ended up on their nose in the dust.
The last little item in the list, #5 puts a bit of a dagger into the heart of the problem, Brutus would be pleased. The Toga clad one less so, although if that can be spun as "we both control the strait", and put on merch, then that might get past the wicket keeper... FONOPS be damned. Accepting that might annoy the rest of the gulf states that have as much of a right to the control of the waterway as anyone else, but in all cases, consider UNCLOS as inoperable as the UNGA and UNSC.
Continued access concentrates the minds of those in New Delhi, Beijing, and Tokyo, but that has as high a risk as I can imagine of rattling the cages of Manila and Taipei. Russia of course is a recipient of the largesse in sanctions relief for reasons that have not been explained, along with Iran itself, which just proves that irony is not lost on the participants of this circus.
Not dull.
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From: Texas
Iran has rejected US President Donald Trump's 15-point plan to end the war, according to state-run Press TV. It cited an unknown "senior political-security official" laying out five of Tehran's own conditions to bring the conflict to an end, including paying reparations for damage. They bear no resemblance to Trump's proposals, published by Israel's Channel 12 network after US officials had confirmed their existence. They include Iran committing not to build nuclear weapons and to reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
"No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews [sic] is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped," Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X.
"No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews [sic] is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped," Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X.
Friday night will end week four, Saturday Morning will begin week five.
How many more weeks will this last?
How many on line betting sites have the line set at seven?
Joined: Jun 2009
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From: Baston
How do the 'rates of fire' of the combatants compare please? [Not a well-worded question ................ have both sides slowed down a lot and if so, why?]
I am sure there are unofficial tallies being maintained but cannot find any. Fog of war.
I am sure there are unofficial tallies being maintained but cannot find any. Fog of war.
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From: Europe
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
LW, I suspect you are being rather optimistic.
- If logic prevailed, the SMO would not have started.
- Ms Leavitt states 'courtesy, respect to congress... blah blah, 4-6 weeks". That would lower the odds of any cessation of whatever this is that is being done before the Lucky Seven number.
- If this is a means to suspend the US Constitution come on 3rd November, 2026... then Seven doesn't fit.
- If Russia has a voice, then they would be happy to tie up ol' glory for about the next 4 years, a fitting response to Vlad's 3-day extravaganza.
- Saudi Arabia's Capt Slice n' dice seems to prefer the option of spilling American blood on Iranian soil, a win for Saudi. Of course, The House of Saud has its share of issues, that have not ameliorated since the mid 80's.
- Israel will not be happy with the US of A walking out of team Israel.
According to the latest revelations in the USFC, related to Mr Smiths going to DC as a special prosecutor, seems that the "man who never was" strategy of sending maskirovka doesn't take much effort nowadays. We live in strange times.
As much as I admire the USMC, I suspect that they would be squandered on a foreign shore if placed into harms way. Would think that sending in the Secretary of War, armed with an M1911 and his boyish enthusiasm, all by himself would be fitting.
When Mr Graham coaches Bibi how to get Mr T to go to war against Iran, you may have issues at various levels, but at least, y'all have J. Kushner and Mr S. Witcoff pushing this wheelbarrow over the cliff. I do think that the opportunity for a run on popcorn exists, as gunboat diplomacy doesn't do well in our new strategic world of asymmetric warfare being a reality, where a few thousand drones Trump-ing a couple of flat tops.
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From: florida
Salute!
Good to see the Ghostriders in theater, especially for the boat killing aspects. I would also like the coasties in on it with whatever they are using, but maybe it's the 130's with Hellfires or SDB's. The SBD's are lots cheaper, and the guns are really good if the tgt is fairly slow.
If the Hawgs are gonna help at the Strait, they would be weapon of choice, even if the MANPADS abound. I cannot see them as players until they deploy way south, as that Israeli bse is a thousand friggin' miles away and the jet is only cruisin 300-400 KTAS.
The big deal will be drone swarms if there are landings, but they have to launch from someplace in a shrt interval, and the Reapers will play a big role for warning and designating launhrs for the Hawgs and Vipers.
Gonna be interesting shortly, hih?
Gums sends...
Good to see the Ghostriders in theater, especially for the boat killing aspects. I would also like the coasties in on it with whatever they are using, but maybe it's the 130's with Hellfires or SDB's. The SBD's are lots cheaper, and the guns are really good if the tgt is fairly slow.
If the Hawgs are gonna help at the Strait, they would be weapon of choice, even if the MANPADS abound. I cannot see them as players until they deploy way south, as that Israeli bse is a thousand friggin' miles away and the jet is only cruisin 300-400 KTAS.
The big deal will be drone swarms if there are landings, but they have to launch from someplace in a shrt interval, and the Reapers will play a big role for warning and designating launhrs for the Hawgs and Vipers.
Gonna be interesting shortly, hih?
Gums sends...
Joined: Jan 2008
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From: Reading, UK
AFAIK, that map is correct at least in respect of the fact that no other continental European countries are being overflown.
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From: Germany
And the method of choice for the mighty U.S. Kaiser is to keep anxiously quiet, instead of just picking up the phone and call someone of a rank in the holy lands?
Added:
OK, according to WSJ the phone call has taken place indeed. Israel has eventually (not confirmed) removed Abbas Araqchi and Mahammad Baquer Qalibaf from the kill list.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ni-2026-03-26/
Added:
OK, according to WSJ the phone call has taken place indeed. Israel has eventually (not confirmed) removed Abbas Araqchi and Mahammad Baquer Qalibaf from the kill list.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ni-2026-03-26/
Last edited by 51bravo; 26th March 2026 at 10:12.
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From: Land of Oz
Joined: Nov 2000
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From: UK
The Kill Chain
An interesting article about why and how the Kill Chain has been speeded up leading to mistakes in targeting resulting in blue on blue and civilian casualties (not a good way to foster hearts and minds). As used in Iran, Gaza and Lebanon.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/mar/26/ai-got-the-blame-for-the-iran-school-bombing-the-truth-is-far-more-worrying?CMP=share_btn_url]Its not the AI at fault.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/mar/26/ai-got-the-blame-for-the-iran-school-bombing-the-truth-is-far-more-worrying?CMP=share_btn_url]Its not the AI at fault.
the human decisions that led to the killing of between 175 and 180 people, most of them girls between the ages of seven and 12. Someone decided to compress the kill chain. Someone decided that deliberation was latency. Someone decided to build a system that produces 1,000 targeting decisions an hour and call them high-quality.
Last edited by beardy; 26th March 2026 at 10:25.
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From: Northumberland
It would appear that some overflights are being permitted by France, whereas some others are having to go the long way round (west of Portugal and arriving/departing Fairford via the Western Approaches).
AFAIK, that map is correct at least in respect of the fact that no other continental European countries are being overflown.
AFAIK, that map is correct at least in respect of the fact that no other continental European countries are being overflown.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
Video seems genuine. Near but no cigar.
Second point of view showing MANPAD launch.
A U.S. Navy carrier-based F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet was seen engaging hostile positions along Iran’s southern coastline using its onboard cannon. During the attack, the aircraft was struck by a heat-seeking missile launched from an Iranian man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS).
Despite the hit, the fighter survived and continued flying — the missile’s fragmentation high-explosive warhead detonated near the tail section but failed to inflict critical damage on the aircraft.
P.S. It should be noted that, likely due to a growing sense of impunity, the fighter’s crew appears to be operating with excessive boldness, conducting extremely low-altitude strafing runs with the cannon.
P.P.S. After these visuals, the price of the F/A-18 Super Hornet will probably double.
Despite the hit, the fighter survived and continued flying — the missile’s fragmentation high-explosive warhead detonated near the tail section but failed to inflict critical damage on the aircraft.
P.S. It should be noted that, likely due to a growing sense of impunity, the fighter’s crew appears to be operating with excessive boldness, conducting extremely low-altitude strafing runs with the cannon.
P.P.S. After these visuals, the price of the F/A-18 Super Hornet will probably double.
Last edited by ORAC; 26th March 2026 at 10:57.
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From: West Country
And the method of choice for the mighty U.S. Kaiser is to keep anxiously quiet, instead of just picking up the phone and call someone of a rank in the holy lands?
Added:
OK, according to WSJ the phone call has taken place indeed. Israel has eventually (not confirmed) removed Abbas Araqchi and Mahammad Baquer Qalibaf from the kill list.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ni-2026-03-26/
Added:
OK, according to WSJ the phone call has taken place indeed. Israel has eventually (not confirmed) removed Abbas Araqchi and Mahammad Baquer Qalibaf from the kill list.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ni-2026-03-26/
The problem is they may find their way onto a different list....closer to home.
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
Update on IRGC navy CinC:
Israeli Defense Minister Katz confirms the assassination of Commodore Alireza Tangsiri, Commander of the IRGC Navy, in Bandar Abbas.
Overnight, Israeli airstrikes targeted an 8-storey building where Tangsiri was holding a meeting with other high-ranking officials in the naval branch of the IRGC.
Keep an eye out for information about the deputy commander of the IRGC Navy, Ali Azmaei, and the deputy coordinator (3rd in-command), Abolghasem Valagher.
Tangsiri was one of the ten most important commanders in the IRGC's leadership structure. He was responsible for enforcing Iran's dominion over the Strait of Hormuz. He would've led the defensive efforts against an American operations in the Persian Gulf.
His influence extended beyond his official role. Tangsiri and many other high-ranking IRGC commanders translated their wartime decision-making into political power, filling the void left due to the assassinations of other governing officials.
Overnight, Israeli airstrikes targeted an 8-storey building where Tangsiri was holding a meeting with other high-ranking officials in the naval branch of the IRGC.
Keep an eye out for information about the deputy commander of the IRGC Navy, Ali Azmaei, and the deputy coordinator (3rd in-command), Abolghasem Valagher.
Tangsiri was one of the ten most important commanders in the IRGC's leadership structure. He was responsible for enforcing Iran's dominion over the Strait of Hormuz. He would've led the defensive efforts against an American operations in the Persian Gulf.
His influence extended beyond his official role. Tangsiri and many other high-ranking IRGC commanders translated their wartime decision-making into political power, filling the void left due to the assassinations of other governing officials.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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From: Peripatetic
First i've read of their use. Any confirmation?
https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/20...-chinese-navy/
China’s “Carrier Killer” has failed spectacularly in Iran.
In this conflict, Iran used Chinese-made CM-302 anti-ship missiles and HQ-series air defense systems, but they either failed to hit targets or were quickly destroyed by U.S. forces.
Let’s start with earlier developments. Since February, the U.S. deployed major forces to the Middle East, including two carrier strike groups near Iran. War was on the verge of breaking out. To counter these carriers, Iran urgently purchased China’s so-called “carrier killer” CM-302 anti-ship missiles.
The CM-302 is the export version of China’s YJ-12 missile. It is supersonic, has a range of about 290 km, and can strike large vessels. Beijing has long promoted it as one of the most powerful anti-ship missiles in the world.
But in real combat, this “carrier killer” delivered a shocking result: zero hits!
Investigations showed that many of the CM-302 missiles malfunctioned mid-flight and crashed, while the rest were easily intercepted by U.S. forces. Combined with U.S. Aegis combat systems, SM-6 interceptors, and electronic warfare, the missiles were neutralized with ease. There are even reports that Chinese technical personnel suffered casualties.
The complete failure of these “carrier killers” not only damaged Iran’s confidence but also triggered global skepticism toward Chinese weapons. Rumors even suggest that Xi Jinping was furious, criticizing military engineers for pushing substandard equipment to secure funding, and launching internal crackdowns.
This disastrous performance exposes a deeper issue: China’s military industry has long focused on paper performance rather than battlefield effectiveness.
Weapons are not like consumer products. A sports car reaching 500 km/h proves performance. But for missiles, speed alone means nothing because if the enemy intercepts or jams it, the weapon is useless. A weapon must prove it can survive defenses and hit real targets under combat conditions. China’s approach to weapons development resembles consumer product design, chasing specs rather than real-world effectiveness.
Take the CM-302: on paper, it looks impressive—290 km range, 500 kg payload. In theory, a few missiles could destroy a carrier. But that assumes the enemy is unprepared. In real combat, the opponent has layered missile defenses, electronic warfare, and early warning systems. Chinese weapons, designed without sufficient real combat considerations, collapse under these conditions, like paper tigers.
This also reflects a structural weakness: China’s military has not fought a real war since the Sino-Vietnamese War. Nearly 50 years without combat means a lack of real battlefield experience, making it difficult to design weapons for actual war scenarios. As a result, Chinese weapons prioritize theoretical performance over proven effectiveness.
In the global arms market, the most reliable weapons are those tested in real combat. Without that validation, even impressive specifications can be meaningless.
Iran learned that lesson the hard way by buying Chinese weapons.
In this conflict, Iran used Chinese-made CM-302 anti-ship missiles and HQ-series air defense systems, but they either failed to hit targets or were quickly destroyed by U.S. forces.
Let’s start with earlier developments. Since February, the U.S. deployed major forces to the Middle East, including two carrier strike groups near Iran. War was on the verge of breaking out. To counter these carriers, Iran urgently purchased China’s so-called “carrier killer” CM-302 anti-ship missiles.
The CM-302 is the export version of China’s YJ-12 missile. It is supersonic, has a range of about 290 km, and can strike large vessels. Beijing has long promoted it as one of the most powerful anti-ship missiles in the world.
But in real combat, this “carrier killer” delivered a shocking result: zero hits!
Investigations showed that many of the CM-302 missiles malfunctioned mid-flight and crashed, while the rest were easily intercepted by U.S. forces. Combined with U.S. Aegis combat systems, SM-6 interceptors, and electronic warfare, the missiles were neutralized with ease. There are even reports that Chinese technical personnel suffered casualties.
The complete failure of these “carrier killers” not only damaged Iran’s confidence but also triggered global skepticism toward Chinese weapons. Rumors even suggest that Xi Jinping was furious, criticizing military engineers for pushing substandard equipment to secure funding, and launching internal crackdowns.
This disastrous performance exposes a deeper issue: China’s military industry has long focused on paper performance rather than battlefield effectiveness.
Weapons are not like consumer products. A sports car reaching 500 km/h proves performance. But for missiles, speed alone means nothing because if the enemy intercepts or jams it, the weapon is useless. A weapon must prove it can survive defenses and hit real targets under combat conditions. China’s approach to weapons development resembles consumer product design, chasing specs rather than real-world effectiveness.
Take the CM-302: on paper, it looks impressive—290 km range, 500 kg payload. In theory, a few missiles could destroy a carrier. But that assumes the enemy is unprepared. In real combat, the opponent has layered missile defenses, electronic warfare, and early warning systems. Chinese weapons, designed without sufficient real combat considerations, collapse under these conditions, like paper tigers.
This also reflects a structural weakness: China’s military has not fought a real war since the Sino-Vietnamese War. Nearly 50 years without combat means a lack of real battlefield experience, making it difficult to design weapons for actual war scenarios. As a result, Chinese weapons prioritize theoretical performance over proven effectiveness.
In the global arms market, the most reliable weapons are those tested in real combat. Without that validation, even impressive specifications can be meaningless.
Iran learned that lesson the hard way by buying Chinese weapons.
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From: Texas
They will learn and adapt. (Comment on their missile troubles, China).
As satisfying as the strike on the Naval Commander may have been for those trying to take out the chain of command, Next Man Up is what happens and they press on. This isn't a chess game where if you knock out the bishop there isn't another one to fill in behind.
Isn't some of that due to insurance groups not covering the ships?
As satisfying as the strike on the Naval Commander may have been for those trying to take out the chain of command, Next Man Up is what happens and they press on. This isn't a chess game where if you knock out the bishop there isn't another one to fill in behind.
Israel says it has killed the commander of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) naval forces, responsible for overseeing the weeks-long blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz trade route that has wreaked havoc with global markets and fuel prices. Alireza Tangsiri had been “blown up” along with several other senior Iranian naval figures, Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz announced on Thursday. Tangsiri was “directly responsible for the terrorist act of bombing and blocking the Strait of Hormuz,” Katz said. Traffic through the strait has plunged more than 90%. Typically, about 150 tankers and bulk carriers would pass through each day but less than 100 have been allowed through since March 2.
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From: Over the rainbow
LBC news reporting that Russia is supplying Iran with fuel, medical supplies and drones.
So Trump actively supports Putin who in turn wages war against his allies and provides Iran, his enemy, with weapons that they can use against him?
So Trump actively supports Putin who in turn wages war against his allies and provides Iran, his enemy, with weapons that they can use against him?