Ukraine Crisis 2014
Putin chucks more toys out of the pram..........
BBC News - Russia hits West with food import ban in sanctions row
BBC News - Russia hits West with food import ban in sanctions row
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
And air routes...
EU Airlines Could Suffer From Russian Airspace Sanctions
.....Russia is considering its response after EU sanctions led to the suspension of flights at the Dobrolet discount unit of OAO Aeroflot as European companies annulled leasing, insurance and servicing contracts. The grounding is among more visible results of measures aimed at Russian President Vladimir Putin for his support of anti-government separatists in Ukraine. The EU and U.S. President Barack Obama have urged Putin to help curb rebel activities after the downing of Malaysian Air MH17.
Retaliation to the sanctions is being discussed, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said in a meeting with Aeroflot Deputy Chief Executive Officer Vadim Zingman and Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov, according to a statement yesterday that didn’t specify what the steps might be, leaving carriers to wonder if the Ukraine standoff will ensnare their industry.
Authorities are discussing three possible measure, with a ban on Ukrainian flights across Russia to Asia being considered alongside the charter ban and an artificial lengthening of trans-Siberian routes for scheduled EU airlines to make them less competitive, two people said today, asking not to be named........
EU Airlines Could Suffer From Russian Airspace Sanctions
.....Russia is considering its response after EU sanctions led to the suspension of flights at the Dobrolet discount unit of OAO Aeroflot as European companies annulled leasing, insurance and servicing contracts. The grounding is among more visible results of measures aimed at Russian President Vladimir Putin for his support of anti-government separatists in Ukraine. The EU and U.S. President Barack Obama have urged Putin to help curb rebel activities after the downing of Malaysian Air MH17.
Retaliation to the sanctions is being discussed, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said in a meeting with Aeroflot Deputy Chief Executive Officer Vadim Zingman and Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov, according to a statement yesterday that didn’t specify what the steps might be, leaving carriers to wonder if the Ukraine standoff will ensnare their industry.
Authorities are discussing three possible measure, with a ban on Ukrainian flights across Russia to Asia being considered alongside the charter ban and an artificial lengthening of trans-Siberian routes for scheduled EU airlines to make them less competitive, two people said today, asking not to be named........
Seems little doubt that Russian gov is going to try and split Western economic sanctions with their own brand. Seems to me that they will: do everything possible to stall UN actions, provocate in all diplomatic and military situations where they have influence, attempt to damage all western companies with investment in Russia (BP, write that 20% off now!), stop access to ISS, bump up the price of Russian gas or, have "supply problems" this winter!
I suspect they might be playing a VERY hard game over the next six months.
BTW, M. Hollande, do not expect to get paid for those boats!
Just my opinion
OAP
I suspect they might be playing a VERY hard game over the next six months.
BTW, M. Hollande, do not expect to get paid for those boats!
Just my opinion
OAP
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It seems a little petty that some think Russia should not retaliate against these increasing economic sanctions from the west. What did our governments expect would happen? That the Bear would just walk off in a strop? Really I think that Russia has been very measured in it's response compared to what it could easily do.
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BBC News - Russia hits West with food import ban in sanctions row
Call me old fashioned but what will that achieve, with the West putting restrictions on the East hopefully making sanctions start to be felt across the Country, isn't all Putin is doing is aiding the West in their aims by increasing those sanctions already felt upon themselves ??
I thought the idea was to make things harder to come by in a Country, so much so you start to get grumblings from the people and those close to Putin against him....
When Boris and Doris wake up in the morning and find their bowl of Cherrios are no longer there, the only person they can blame for that is Putin as no one else is stopping their supply...
Hopefully he will turn all their shops back into a Soviet style store with three or four sparse goods on the shelf, that will open a few eyes in Russia.
I always thought the sanctions should be on items that Russia sells to the West, so the West would feel the pressure, not the other way around, his one large commodity there is gas, but stop that and his Countries growth wuld rapidly die a death.. I can live without Caviar and Genuine Vodka. I feel for the Polish apple producers though.`
Call me old fashioned but what will that achieve, with the West putting restrictions on the East hopefully making sanctions start to be felt across the Country, isn't all Putin is doing is aiding the West in their aims by increasing those sanctions already felt upon themselves ??
I thought the idea was to make things harder to come by in a Country, so much so you start to get grumblings from the people and those close to Putin against him....
When Boris and Doris wake up in the morning and find their bowl of Cherrios are no longer there, the only person they can blame for that is Putin as no one else is stopping their supply...
Hopefully he will turn all their shops back into a Soviet style store with three or four sparse goods on the shelf, that will open a few eyes in Russia.
I always thought the sanctions should be on items that Russia sells to the West, so the West would feel the pressure, not the other way around, his one large commodity there is gas, but stop that and his Countries growth wuld rapidly die a death.. I can live without Caviar and Genuine Vodka. I feel for the Polish apple producers though.`
Since the west's sanctions on Russia are targeted at the elite they won't generate the internal emotion that drives people to band together against foreign oppression that Putain wants. So he has to make the whole thing real for "the people" by banning western stuff himself. But not motor cars or anything that his elite buddies would miss - only food that ordinary people won't be able to buy now.
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Since the west's sanctions on Russia are targeted at the elite they won't generate the internal emotion that drives people to band together against foreign oppression that Putain wants. So he has to make the whole thing real for "the people" by banning western stuff himself. But not motor cars or anything that his elite buddies would miss - only food that ordinary people won't be able to buy now.
Now where's rr to argue Putins corner?
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I would guess Putin's angle is that by banning the goods produced by the Evil Capitalist West (©) he is hitting our companies' profits. That's how I'd think he'd pitch it to his, allegedly, loyal populace (~83% approval?) anyway: whip up yet more anti-Western 'we're all in this together' sentiment.
The alternative is that as he's got the media in his hands anyway, he could just invert the truth and claim the absence of Western goods are part of our sanctions.
The alternative is that as he's got the media in his hands anyway, he could just invert the truth and claim the absence of Western goods are part of our sanctions.
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...Which he will do.
Stay tuned - I think our cunning fox is losing it... "unless I'm very much mistaken".
Stay tuned - I think our cunning fox is losing it... "unless I'm very much mistaken".
Last edited by Stanwell; 7th Aug 2014 at 15:57. Reason: add parentheses
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Putin's done a Scargill - he's set up a confrontation where his only real weapon is gas - in the middle of one of a hot summer and when all European gas and LNG stocks are at all time highs. Interesting to see what comes next....
Vladimir Putin's pointless conflict with Europe leaves it a vassal of China
The world faces a moment of maximum danger in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has perhaps 72 hours to decide whether to launch a full invasion of the Donbass, or accept defeat and let the Ukrainian military crush his proxy forces. Nato officials say Russia has massed 20,000 troops in battle-readiness near the border, backed by Spetsnaz commandos, tanks and aircraft. Vehicles have been marked with peace-keeper labels already. Nato sees every sign that the Kremlin intends to disguise an attack as a "humanitarian mission".
This is more serious than the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1980. That was a "colonial war". The Soviet Union was a careful, status quo power in its final decades. It held captive nations but did not overrun new borders in Europe. Mr Putin is expansionist, and far less predictable. He is, in any case, captive to the chauvinist fever that he has so successfully stoked. He has been clear from the outset that he will deploy any means necessary to bring Ukraine back into Russia's orbit. Only war can now achieve this, since all else has failed, and since he has turned a friendly Ukraine into an enemy by his actions. The awful implications of this are at last starting to hit the markets.
"People thought that Russia was just playing a game of brinkmanship,and that pragmatism would prevail in the end. There is real fear now that this will spin out of control. Nothing cannot be excluded at this point, even a cut-off in oil and gas," said Chris Weafer, from Macro Advisory in Moscow. Yields on 10-year rouble bonds have jumped to 9.7pc, up 130 basis points since June. The sanctioned bank VTB is up 180 points in a month. A liquidity crunch is rapidly taking hold across the financial system. "The market is shut. Not a single Russian entity has been able to borrow anything in dollars, euro or yen since early July," said Mr Weafer.
The Kremlin's gamble has gone horribly wrong. The eastern regions of Ukraine have failed to rise in mass support for Putin's front organisations, led by political operatives from Moscow, and patently run by the Russian security apparatus (FSB/GRU) as even Russian newspapers admit. The latest report by the United Nations accuses these units of "eggregious abuses", carrying out systematic intimidation through torture and execution.
Mr Putin has failed equally to drive a wedge between America and Europe, or to paralyse the EU by playing off one country against another. Germany has not cut a special deal, though its 6,000 companies in Russia are on the frontline. It has gone beyond the EU measures, blocking a €100m export of combat training kit by Rheinmetall. Cyprus, Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria quietly towed the EU line on "Tier 3" sanctions. None dared to veto measures that shut Russia's banks out of global finance, and that block technology needed to open up Russia's oil and gas fields in the Arctic or the shale reserves of the Bazhenov Basin.
President Barack Obama's slow, methodical escalation suits the complicated chemistry of Europe, the region that will pay the economic price. There would have been a trans-Atlantic crisis if the hotheads in Washington had prevailed. Mr Putin now faces draconian sanctions from the US, EU, Japan, Canada and Australia together. He can strike back by asymmetric means - perhaps a cyberattack - but tit-for-tat retaliation can achieve nothing. There is no equivalence. Russia's economy is no bigger than California's. This is an economic showdown between a $40 trillion power structure, and a $2 trillion producer of raw materials that has hollowed out its industrial core.
The new arsenal of sanctions refined by a cell at the US Treasury - already used with crisp effect against nine countries - is nothing like the blunt toolkit of the 1980s or 1990s. Nor can Russia retreat into Soviet autarky. It is locked into global finance. The International Energy Agency says Russia needs to invest $100bn a year for two decades just to stop its oil and gas output declining. Russian companies and state bodies owe $610bn in foreign currencies. They must repay $84bn by the end of the year, and $10bn a month thereafter. There is no immediate crisis. Russian companies have $130bn of cash holdings. The central bank has promised to deploy its $470bn of foreign reserves as second line of defence. Russia can muddle through for a while, depending on the pace of capital flight. At best it is slow suffocation.
European officials calculate that Mr Putin will not dare to cut off energy supplies, since to do so would bring the Russian state to its knees within months. But even if he tried - as a shock tactic - it would not achieve much. Oil can be obtained anywhere. Europe's gas inventories have risen to 81pc of capacity, up from 46pc in March. Britain is at 94pc. There is a sudden glut of liquefied natural gas in Asia that has caused prices to fall from more than $20 per million BTU earlier this year to $10.50. The LNG is being diverted to Europe, landing in Britain at just $6.50. Japan has just given the go-ahead for two nuclear reactors to restart in October, with seven likely by the end of the year. Koreans are also firing up closed nuclear reactors. All this frees up LNG. Whether this is fruit of a co-ordinated strategy, the net effect is that inventories and spare LNG could cover a Russian cut-off for a long time, probably through the winter with rationing. Areas of eastern Europe have no pipeline supply from the West, but "regas" ships could plug some gaps in an emergency. The gas weapon is not what it seems.
The Kremlin is counting on acquiescence from the BRICS quintet as it confronts the West, and counting on capital from China to offset the loss of Western money. This is a pipedream. China's Xi Jinping drove a brutal bargain in May on a future Gazprom pipeline, securing a price near $350 per 1,000 cubic metres that is barely above Russia's production costs.
Pieties aside, the two countries are rivals in central Asia, where China is systematically building pipelines that break Russia's stranglehold. China has large territorial claims on Far Eastern Russia, land seized from the Qing Dynasty in the 19th century. Even if Mr Putin's strategy of a Euro-Asia alliance with China succeeds, it will reduce Russia to a vassal state of China, a supplier of commodities with a development model that dooms it to backwardness. "It is a dangerous illusion. We are witnessing the funeral of Russia,” said Aleksandr Kokh, a former top Kremlin official.
Mr Putin is stuck in a Cold War timewarp, deaf to the shifts in world power. He has been obsessed with an imaginary threat from an ageing, pacifist Europe in slow decline, turning manageable differences into needless conflict. Yet at the same time he is throwing his country at the feet of a rising power that poses a far greater threat in the end, and that will not hesitate to extract the maximum advantage from Russia's self-inflicted weakness.
Mr Putin has misjudged everything. He has decisive force only on the east Europe's battlefield. Ukraine is not a member of Nato, and has no Article V protection. The West has already stated that it will not deploy forces if it is invaded. Novorossiya is his for the taking. It is his last lethal card.
Vladimir Putin's pointless conflict with Europe leaves it a vassal of China
The world faces a moment of maximum danger in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has perhaps 72 hours to decide whether to launch a full invasion of the Donbass, or accept defeat and let the Ukrainian military crush his proxy forces. Nato officials say Russia has massed 20,000 troops in battle-readiness near the border, backed by Spetsnaz commandos, tanks and aircraft. Vehicles have been marked with peace-keeper labels already. Nato sees every sign that the Kremlin intends to disguise an attack as a "humanitarian mission".
This is more serious than the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1980. That was a "colonial war". The Soviet Union was a careful, status quo power in its final decades. It held captive nations but did not overrun new borders in Europe. Mr Putin is expansionist, and far less predictable. He is, in any case, captive to the chauvinist fever that he has so successfully stoked. He has been clear from the outset that he will deploy any means necessary to bring Ukraine back into Russia's orbit. Only war can now achieve this, since all else has failed, and since he has turned a friendly Ukraine into an enemy by his actions. The awful implications of this are at last starting to hit the markets.
"People thought that Russia was just playing a game of brinkmanship,and that pragmatism would prevail in the end. There is real fear now that this will spin out of control. Nothing cannot be excluded at this point, even a cut-off in oil and gas," said Chris Weafer, from Macro Advisory in Moscow. Yields on 10-year rouble bonds have jumped to 9.7pc, up 130 basis points since June. The sanctioned bank VTB is up 180 points in a month. A liquidity crunch is rapidly taking hold across the financial system. "The market is shut. Not a single Russian entity has been able to borrow anything in dollars, euro or yen since early July," said Mr Weafer.
The Kremlin's gamble has gone horribly wrong. The eastern regions of Ukraine have failed to rise in mass support for Putin's front organisations, led by political operatives from Moscow, and patently run by the Russian security apparatus (FSB/GRU) as even Russian newspapers admit. The latest report by the United Nations accuses these units of "eggregious abuses", carrying out systematic intimidation through torture and execution.
Mr Putin has failed equally to drive a wedge between America and Europe, or to paralyse the EU by playing off one country against another. Germany has not cut a special deal, though its 6,000 companies in Russia are on the frontline. It has gone beyond the EU measures, blocking a €100m export of combat training kit by Rheinmetall. Cyprus, Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria quietly towed the EU line on "Tier 3" sanctions. None dared to veto measures that shut Russia's banks out of global finance, and that block technology needed to open up Russia's oil and gas fields in the Arctic or the shale reserves of the Bazhenov Basin.
President Barack Obama's slow, methodical escalation suits the complicated chemistry of Europe, the region that will pay the economic price. There would have been a trans-Atlantic crisis if the hotheads in Washington had prevailed. Mr Putin now faces draconian sanctions from the US, EU, Japan, Canada and Australia together. He can strike back by asymmetric means - perhaps a cyberattack - but tit-for-tat retaliation can achieve nothing. There is no equivalence. Russia's economy is no bigger than California's. This is an economic showdown between a $40 trillion power structure, and a $2 trillion producer of raw materials that has hollowed out its industrial core.
The new arsenal of sanctions refined by a cell at the US Treasury - already used with crisp effect against nine countries - is nothing like the blunt toolkit of the 1980s or 1990s. Nor can Russia retreat into Soviet autarky. It is locked into global finance. The International Energy Agency says Russia needs to invest $100bn a year for two decades just to stop its oil and gas output declining. Russian companies and state bodies owe $610bn in foreign currencies. They must repay $84bn by the end of the year, and $10bn a month thereafter. There is no immediate crisis. Russian companies have $130bn of cash holdings. The central bank has promised to deploy its $470bn of foreign reserves as second line of defence. Russia can muddle through for a while, depending on the pace of capital flight. At best it is slow suffocation.
European officials calculate that Mr Putin will not dare to cut off energy supplies, since to do so would bring the Russian state to its knees within months. But even if he tried - as a shock tactic - it would not achieve much. Oil can be obtained anywhere. Europe's gas inventories have risen to 81pc of capacity, up from 46pc in March. Britain is at 94pc. There is a sudden glut of liquefied natural gas in Asia that has caused prices to fall from more than $20 per million BTU earlier this year to $10.50. The LNG is being diverted to Europe, landing in Britain at just $6.50. Japan has just given the go-ahead for two nuclear reactors to restart in October, with seven likely by the end of the year. Koreans are also firing up closed nuclear reactors. All this frees up LNG. Whether this is fruit of a co-ordinated strategy, the net effect is that inventories and spare LNG could cover a Russian cut-off for a long time, probably through the winter with rationing. Areas of eastern Europe have no pipeline supply from the West, but "regas" ships could plug some gaps in an emergency. The gas weapon is not what it seems.
The Kremlin is counting on acquiescence from the BRICS quintet as it confronts the West, and counting on capital from China to offset the loss of Western money. This is a pipedream. China's Xi Jinping drove a brutal bargain in May on a future Gazprom pipeline, securing a price near $350 per 1,000 cubic metres that is barely above Russia's production costs.
Pieties aside, the two countries are rivals in central Asia, where China is systematically building pipelines that break Russia's stranglehold. China has large territorial claims on Far Eastern Russia, land seized from the Qing Dynasty in the 19th century. Even if Mr Putin's strategy of a Euro-Asia alliance with China succeeds, it will reduce Russia to a vassal state of China, a supplier of commodities with a development model that dooms it to backwardness. "It is a dangerous illusion. We are witnessing the funeral of Russia,” said Aleksandr Kokh, a former top Kremlin official.
Mr Putin is stuck in a Cold War timewarp, deaf to the shifts in world power. He has been obsessed with an imaginary threat from an ageing, pacifist Europe in slow decline, turning manageable differences into needless conflict. Yet at the same time he is throwing his country at the feet of a rising power that poses a far greater threat in the end, and that will not hesitate to extract the maximum advantage from Russia's self-inflicted weakness.
Mr Putin has misjudged everything. He has decisive force only on the east Europe's battlefield. Ukraine is not a member of Nato, and has no Article V protection. The West has already stated that it will not deploy forces if it is invaded. Novorossiya is his for the taking. It is his last lethal card.
So, therin lies the danger ORAC, the enraged Bear will lash out. The problem is that, a wild animal will fight too the death. It does not know or understand any other way. Dangerous times, IMO.
OAP
OAP
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I see Ukraine has apparently said they would welcome a peacekeeper force, but only if its multi-national and unarmed, that sort of screws up Putins plans, he cannot claim his is there for the good of the people when the Ukraine has said they are willing to accept a multi-national force and not an all Russian armed one.
And the last thing Putin wants is foreign troops or peace keepers on the ground exactly where he does not want them.
A new way of taking a country, paint your helmets blue, "invade" and say we come in peace.
And the last thing Putin wants is foreign troops or peace keepers on the ground exactly where he does not want them.
A new way of taking a country, paint your helmets blue, "invade" and say we come in peace.
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Russia to send humanitarian convoy to eastern Ukraine - Europe - World - The Independent
Good, looks like a convoy of Russian peacekeepers will go to Eastern Ukraine anyhow.
Good, looks like a convoy of Russian peacekeepers will go to Eastern Ukraine anyhow.
RR wrote
Not a chance. Russia is not going to send unarmed peacekeepers and the Red Cross want nothing to do with a military escort.
Kyiv Agrees To International Aid Mission Led By Red Cross
Good, looks like a convoy of Russian peacekeepers will go to Eastern Ukraine anyhow.
But he (Poroshenko) said any humanitarian mission must be "an international one without any military escort" by Russian forces.
Later on August 11, Laurent Corbaz, the head of Red Cross operations for Europe and Central Asia, said in a statement that all sides must guarantee the security of Red Cross workers because the organization will not take part in any aid delivery mission that involves military escorts.
Later on August 11, Laurent Corbaz, the head of Red Cross operations for Europe and Central Asia, said in a statement that all sides must guarantee the security of Red Cross workers because the organization will not take part in any aid delivery mission that involves military escorts.
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Hopefully it will be the Russian military acting as peace keepers. Maybe hundreds of tanks, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of troops. No other international forces are required. Its a local situation for the Russians to deal with. Then finally we can have peace in Ukraine. There need to be enough Russian forces to prevent acts of aggression against the separatists by the Ukrainian regime military forces and to protect the civilian population of the region. The people of eastern Ukraine have the right to freedom and independence from Kiev.
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BBC News - Ukraine and Russia 'agree' to aid mission to Luhansk
Sorry Ronald, no mighty Russian army invasion yet. Though I am sure Putin has something up his sleeve.
Yep a armed International peace keeping force to control the area would be a good thing whilst elections where hold would be a good thing. The look on Putins face would be priceless. Unfortunately we'll just get an unarmed aid convoy.
Sorry Ronald, no mighty Russian army invasion yet. Though I am sure Putin has something up his sleeve.
Yep a armed International peace keeping force to control the area would be a good thing whilst elections where hold would be a good thing. The look on Putins face would be priceless. Unfortunately we'll just get an unarmed aid convoy.