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Dear Anna, Rupert...et al. Do you hear the approaching thunder...?

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

Dear Anna, Rupert...et al. Do you hear the approaching thunder...?

Old 24th Oct 2017, 03:32
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Including me.. 25yrs here.. had enough
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 05:02
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The trouble with the senior guys, the ones over 60, is that most companies won't employ you as a post 60 starter even if they employ until 65. China won't even look at you unless you are under 55..so please don't castigate the senior pilots for staying on…assuming they do, since its more about being unable to move AOT wishing to stay. And those with longevity..many have been through divorce..some more than once and are effectively here to simply survive by trying to rebuild their life over again..I can assure you..many of the older peeps would leave if they were financially in the right place...
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 05:23
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As far as the seniority list goes, I know guys who left 2 months ago and they are still on the seniority list. As such I believe the seniority list is at least lagging 2 months behind officers resignation date.
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 05:38
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The seniority list isn't reliable. If you retire or are fired then your name disappears pretty much straight away but I've seen names still on there several months after people have left through resignation or death.
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 06:09
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Originally Posted by GMEDX View Post
Housing has for a long time been know as Cx's Golden Handcuffs. Take those handcuffs off and see what happens.
Lets face it, it was the only reason we all came here in the first place. $$
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 08:03
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dead Serious View Post
Morning coffee,

Air Canada looking for 450 in 2018
Ryanair looking for 700 in 2018-19
Easyjet looking for 500 2018
Qantas recruiting 200 now
VietJet 400 now
BA 400 2018-19 ( upper age limit 49 )
Virgin Atlantic 150
Virgian Australia 80

US Airlines THOUSANDS by 2020
Dragonair 200 in 2018
How do you arrive at these figures??

Last edited by Krone; 24th Oct 2017 at 08:53.
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 08:21
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Originally Posted by GTC58 View Post
As far as the seniority list goes, I know guys who left 2 months ago and they are still on the seniority list. As such I believe the seniority list is at least lagging 2 months behind officers resignation date.
Much longer than 2 months. There are DEAD people on the seniority list. Yes really.
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 10:19
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Much longer than 2 months
Considering just how quickly (nano-seconds?) one's meal allowance disappears should one be unfortunate enough to arrive late, perhaps the seniority list is being deliberately padded?
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 12:13
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krone View Post
How do you arrive at these figures??
official figures from BALPA. A real union.
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 12:57
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So called upcoming airline pilot shortage

Not going to happen. Ex US and other military pilots will continue to fill the gap.
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 13:09
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There is more than anecdotal evidence to support the chaos theory of rostering. A call from CC after retirement has happened and I would suggest this is not an isolated incident, especially on the FX. Traf, I like your work and guessing you may even go back to the green marrow days. Think your straw poll is spot on and once all the loyal pax, who have been prepared to pay more to fly with us, work this out, we will be no diffferent from our bucket shop competitors. Nero plays on.

Last edited by VR-HFX; 24th Oct 2017 at 13:25.
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 14:29
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Originally Posted by Bueno Hombre View Post
Not going to happen. Ex US and other military pilots will continue to fill the gap.
Really? Where would you come up with that?
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 15:58
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Originally Posted by Bueno Hombre View Post
Not going to happen. Ex US and other military pilots will continue to fill the gap.
Ummmm...yeah.....

Air Force could recall up to 1,000 retired pilots after Trump order | Fox News

Air Force preparing B-52 bombers for 24-hour alert status, official says | Fox News

Now, just because the authorization happens doesn't mean the recall is GOING to happen (other incentives and possibly stop loss/service commitments would be used first)--but it is significant in that it's unprecedented in recent history, a large change, and points to a definite lack of supply. And that's for ONE branch of the service.

FWIW most of the services are significantly influenced by politics at the planning levels and aren't particularly forward (long term) looking. So stuff like this is reactive in nature meaning (like watching a developing storm on radar rather than predicting storms will develop) it's actually happening and they didn't expect it. Making this action is a lagging indicator--they have found themselves in the midst of a real problem.

And an increased alert status (of whatever form) takes a HUGE amount of resources (read crews--think of it as form continuous reserve which eats away resources and is hugely inefficient)-- the major reason it was dropped in the early 90s commensurate with the perceived decrease in threat (not commenting if the change in posturing is based on a real threat--just that as it IS happening it will take a large amount of crews to man it). One wing isn't going to have a huge impact, but this indicates a significant change across the board toward readiness not seen since the Reagan administration.

So there's no way in hell the military pipeline will solve the supply problem; quite the opposite.

Combine that with the (real) numbers of cockpit vacancies by carriers (which are actually happening too) and you get a pretty clear picture; one that hasn't occurred to this large of an extent since I've been flying.

Now, it's POSSIBLE for the company to hire those from places with little other options and/or run a ground up apprenticeship (taking on kids who have no experience or background in aviation from start to ratings). This takes a huge training commitment and in the latter a great deal of time. More importantly, there's no way you can really keep the people here as they gain experience and ratings without keeping them happy in some fashion or other--folks USED to fall for the fleeting carrot but that game is long gone and the hand is played out.

So what you can expect to see is you have some hanger-oners (older folks marking time toward retirement in some fashion -- having a 'cash out' and leave mentality which isn't particularly productive and continue to be expensive), much younger folks (who are keen but lacking in qualifications and ratings--and using a great deal of resources to upgrade--which limits their productivity also) with a recurring mass exodus in the middle (who are generally your most productive people--having the qualifications and ratings, are still fairly keen and motivated, and are of lower cost). Now, you COULD target a sliding scale HKPA (or other incentives) toward those who you wish to retain (which is probably the plan) but most folks in the business are wise enough to look down the road a little bit and at what is and has been happening (knowing that the entire industry is seniority driven) and make career decisions accordingly. The cockpit openings are just beginning in earnest and aren't going to abate anytime soon.

The cancellation of ARAPA, the mass sackings (or 'trimming if you prefer), the propaganda coming down the pike, the 'continuous reserve' rostering, using the 'c' word, etc. was all HUGE blunder (as was the cancellation of RPs). Ironically enough, there's little--if any--difference between RP16 (or whatever you want to call it) and RP07. Not really over economics (the company will probably find out the money they have to use to target sectors they wish to retain exceeds what they would have had to pay in the first place--but this won't be until after many of those sectors have left--just like they are finding out the rolling schedule collapses cost them a great deal more than leaving the roster alone in the first place) but more importantly over loss of confidence and futures. Folks are seeing the dark side of the company--of what it CAN do when it wants to impose things (and of how it CAN impose things essentially on a whim in many cases) and wondering if they actually want a future with such an organization. Or can recommend such an organization to high functioning colleagues who might want to sign on.

And their attitude is changing as a result of this--as are their plans for the future. Instead of aspiring to be in the top 5% you begin to push people down toward the lower 5% -- and this is a really really bad way to do business. Incentive based organizations will eat you alive.

Like I said the really big blunder part is none of it really had to happen -- you're bending over pinching pennies as dollars fly out of your pockets. It wouldn't take much to keep people happy and have a feeling of belonging to a culture that encourages excellence. Simply doing nothing would have resulted in a better situation than the company has found itself in.

So at the end of the day the loss of confidence across the board based on conscious acts recently happening is driving the attrition of people you need the most.
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 17:40
  #54 (permalink)  
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The crewing crisis is beginning to reach into all areas worldwide. In particular China, USA and beginning as well in Europe. The US industry is in such trouble that the US Govt just issued a recall to a 1000 pilots, currently at airlines, to return to the services. Further, the US airlines are discussing with the Govt to issue visas to foreign nationals to be hired in the mainline industry. The regional's ALREADY have such a visa waiver in place. China cannot possibly keep up with the demand, hence the active recruiting by company's such as Longreach (CX...you pathetic bunch of panicked losers), and every other recruitment agency on earth. High pay, commuting rosters, and a lot less bs than you would deal with at CX. Europe is beginning to feel the same pressure (just ask Moronman O'leary at Ryanair, who now realises that pilots are his most precious commodity). CX is desperate to get that last bit of false economy cuts in place so the management can bag their bonuses and then leave the wreckage behind. To the AOA leadership: your comms are awful, your competency in doubt. Either explain exactly what the strategy and plan is, or leave the negotiations. The members are going to be taking their own action anyway, so either get on board or get out of the way. Soon, neither the union or the company will be relevant, because most of their pilots are in the process of leaving anyway.
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 21:48
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If any management pilot is reading this thread there should be alarm bells sounding concerning the mental health of this man who I am assuming is a Captain in your airline. He should not be allowed near the controls of anything let alone an airliner with 300 people on board .
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Old 24th Oct 2017, 22:41
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Originally Posted by xpndr777 View Post
If any management pilot is reading this thread there should be alarm bells sounding concerning the mental health of this man who I am assuming is a Captain in your airline. He should not be allowed near the controls of anything let alone an airliner with 300 people on board .
Yeah there should be alarm bells of some sort all right because the candid sentiment and perspective IMHO is representative of most. They just donít choose to type words on this particular internet site.

And they got pushed to where they are by the strife and goings on IMHO initiated by the management shenanigans.

You can take that for what itís worth.
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Old 25th Oct 2017, 00:43
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Originally Posted by Shep69 View Post
Yeah there should be alarm bells of some sort all right
You can take that for what itís worth.
Are you suggesting that a CX pilot may, if really pushed, commit an act akin to German Wings? Do you really know if the poster Trafalgar is this unstable ?

If so, its a police matter , and the sooner the better. Totally shocking if true.
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Old 25th Oct 2017, 01:06
  #58 (permalink)  
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Taking my med's daily...

(xpndr777 and Vermin. 8 and 5 posts respectively. Management lackeys trying to muddy the waters. As pathetic as interfering with the Longreach discovery days. Have you guys not got some "Time to Win" paperwork to file...?)
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Old 25th Oct 2017, 01:27
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So all those C scale F/Os that had BA minimum requirements and could apply for BA in the last couple of years. On their C scale package and almost none left, maybe 2, and yet Iím supposed to believe B scalers are going in droves.
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Old 25th Oct 2017, 01:28
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Originally Posted by Vermin View Post
Are you suggesting that a CX pilot may, if really pushed, commit an act akin to German Wings? Do you really know if the poster Trafalgar is this unstable ?

If so, its a police matter , and the sooner the better. Totally shocking if true.
Of course not and you know it. I am suggesting that the degree of strife and malfeasance propagated by the industrial situation is unhealthy on every level, that this is widespread, and that this does have the definite potential to affect individual health as well as safety of flight.

Pilots are good at compartmentalization but this doesnít always work. And people who are overly concerned about things other than flying probably shouldnít be ó unfortunately self-assessment has its limits and the current climate doesnít help. Do I see anyone as a ticking time bomb ? No. Do I see folks who seem to be constantly resentful, apathetic, fearful, angry, and concerned due to broken promises and imposed conditions (as well as fatigued due to continuously unstable rosters) ó absolutely. And there sure do seem to be a lot of them and itís worse than Iíve ever seen it. Iím just waiting to be surprised by something positive but this has been a real vacuum.

And were I a supervisor Iíd sure as hell be concerned about the current industrial climate.

Last edited by Shep69; 25th Oct 2017 at 01:51.
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