Originally Posted by
Bueno Hombre
Not going to happen. Ex US and other military pilots will continue to fill the gap.
Ummmm...yeah.....
Air Force could recall up to 1,000 retired pilots after Trump order | Fox News
Air Force preparing B-52 bombers for 24-hour alert status, official says | Fox News
Now, just because the authorization happens doesn't mean the recall is GOING to happen (other incentives and possibly stop loss/service commitments would be used first)--but it is significant in that it's unprecedented in recent history, a large change, and points to a definite lack of supply. And that's for ONE branch of the service.
FWIW most of the services are significantly influenced by politics at the planning levels and aren't particularly forward (long term) looking. So stuff like this is reactive in nature meaning (like watching a developing storm on radar rather than predicting storms will develop) it's actually happening and they didn't expect it. Making this action is a lagging indicator--they have found themselves in the midst of a real problem.
And an increased alert status (of whatever form) takes a HUGE amount of resources (read crews--think of it as form continuous reserve which eats away resources and is hugely inefficient)-- the major reason it was dropped in the early 90s commensurate with the perceived decrease in threat (not commenting if the change in posturing is based on a real threat--just that as it IS happening it will take a large amount of crews to man it). One wing isn't going to have a huge impact, but this indicates a significant change across the board toward readiness not seen since the Reagan administration.
So there's no way in hell the military pipeline will solve the supply problem; quite the opposite.
Combine that with the (real) numbers of cockpit vacancies by carriers (which are actually happening too) and you get a pretty clear picture; one that hasn't occurred to this large of an extent since I've been flying.
Now, it's POSSIBLE for the company to hire those from places with little other options and/or run a ground up apprenticeship (taking on kids who have no experience or background in aviation from start to ratings). This takes a huge training commitment and in the latter a great deal of time. More importantly, there's no way you can really keep the people here as they gain experience and ratings without keeping them happy in some fashion or other--folks USED to fall for the fleeting carrot but that game is long gone and the hand is played out.
So what you can expect to see is you have some hangar-oners (older folks marking time toward retirement in some fashion -- having a 'cash out' and leave mentality which isn't particularly productive and continue to be expensive), much younger folks (who are keen but lacking in qualifications and ratings--and using a great deal of resources to upgrade--which limits their productivity also) with a recurring mass exodus in the middle (who are generally your most productive people--having the qualifications and ratings, are still fairly keen and motivated, and are of lower cost). Now, you COULD target a sliding scale HKPA (or other incentives) toward those who you wish to retain (which is probably the plan) but most folks in the business are wise enough to look down the road a little bit and at what is and has been happening (knowing that the entire industry is seniority driven) and make career decisions accordingly. The cockpit openings are just beginning in earnest and aren't going to abate anytime soon.
The cancellation of ARAPA, the mass sackings (or 'trimming if you prefer), the propaganda coming down the pike, the 'continuous reserve' rostering, using the 'c' word, etc. was all HUGE blunder (as was the cancellation of RPs). Ironically enough, there's little--if any--difference between RP16 (or whatever you want to call it) and RP07. Not really over economics (the company will probably find out the money they have to use to target sectors they wish to retain exceeds what they would have had to pay in the first place--but this won't be until after many of those sectors have left--just like they are finding out the rolling schedule collapses cost them a great deal more than leaving the roster alone in the first place) but more importantly over loss of confidence and futures. Folks are seeing the dark side of the company--of what it CAN do when it wants to impose things (and of how it CAN impose things essentially on a whim in many cases) and wondering if they actually want a future with such an organization. Or can recommend such an organization to high functioning colleagues who might want to sign on.
And their attitude is changing as a result of this--as are their plans for the future. Instead of aspiring to be in the top 5% you begin to push people down toward the lower 5% -- and this is a really really bad way to do business. Incentive based organizations will eat you alive.
Like I said the really big blunder part is none of it really had to happen -- you're bending over pinching pennies as dollars fly out of your pockets. It wouldn't take much to keep people happy and have a feeling of belonging to a culture that encourages excellence. Simply doing nothing would have resulted in a better situation than the company has found itself in.
So at the end of the day the loss of confidence across the board based on conscious acts recently happening is driving the attrition of people you need the most.