Fear of Pilots Shortage...
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Saw this is the Sunday Age.
Dear Sir,
The article "Pilot - Drain the new aviation crisis" (Sunday Age 27/8) is stretching the truth. First of all there is no retirement age limit for pilots in Australia and in fact there are experienced and fully licenced former airline pilots languishing in the suburbs who would be only too happy to fly for the airlines given the opportunity. These are pilots forced out of flying because of the age 60 rule in countries other than Australia and New Zealand. But try getting a job in Australia if you are over 60 and you have Buckley's chance. One small charter operator in Melbourne operating twin engine jets recently had 250 applications for six jobs.
There are also several thousand of the 33,000 active commercial pilots mentioned in your article, that cannot get a job in Australia because there are not enough vacancies to go around. The experience level called for in the jobs that are available is too often artificially high, forced to some extent by exhorbitant insurance rates but mainly because there are more pilots than jobs. Australian pilots once flocked to jobs in Papua New Guinea where historically, newly qualified pilots were welcomed. Those avenues of employment have in the last twenty years changed markedly to the point where only experienced pilots can get a job flying the smallest of aeroplanes. Again this is due to high rates of insurance but mainly because there is no shortage of pilots in Australia and the PNG operators can pick and choose from hundreds of applications from the mainland.
While there may well be a shortage of experienced pilots in Asia, very few jobs are available for Australian pilots because understandably Asian countries prefer local hiring. Ironically Australian flying schools are churning out Asian pilots to fill these vacancies. At the same time charter operators, regional airlines, RDFS and the major airlines continue to knock back thousands of applications from young commercial pilots simply because there is a limit to the number of jobs available and they can afford to set the bar too high to get a job. The so called pilot shortage in Australia will remain an enduring myth
Dear Sir,
The article "Pilot - Drain the new aviation crisis" (Sunday Age 27/8) is stretching the truth. First of all there is no retirement age limit for pilots in Australia and in fact there are experienced and fully licenced former airline pilots languishing in the suburbs who would be only too happy to fly for the airlines given the opportunity. These are pilots forced out of flying because of the age 60 rule in countries other than Australia and New Zealand. But try getting a job in Australia if you are over 60 and you have Buckley's chance. One small charter operator in Melbourne operating twin engine jets recently had 250 applications for six jobs.
There are also several thousand of the 33,000 active commercial pilots mentioned in your article, that cannot get a job in Australia because there are not enough vacancies to go around. The experience level called for in the jobs that are available is too often artificially high, forced to some extent by exhorbitant insurance rates but mainly because there are more pilots than jobs. Australian pilots once flocked to jobs in Papua New Guinea where historically, newly qualified pilots were welcomed. Those avenues of employment have in the last twenty years changed markedly to the point where only experienced pilots can get a job flying the smallest of aeroplanes. Again this is due to high rates of insurance but mainly because there is no shortage of pilots in Australia and the PNG operators can pick and choose from hundreds of applications from the mainland.
While there may well be a shortage of experienced pilots in Asia, very few jobs are available for Australian pilots because understandably Asian countries prefer local hiring. Ironically Australian flying schools are churning out Asian pilots to fill these vacancies. At the same time charter operators, regional airlines, RDFS and the major airlines continue to knock back thousands of applications from young commercial pilots simply because there is a limit to the number of jobs available and they can afford to set the bar too high to get a job. The so called pilot shortage in Australia will remain an enduring myth
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I would have thought another issue is one of retaining pilots.
The pilots who don't make the airlines or can't get a turbine seat for whatever reason don't get a decent paycheque and have nothing to stay in the industry for. There's no soft landing for any commercial pilot without an aviation job! It's accepted by any new pilot that low wages are the norm for a few years, but family aspirations put the sword to any long term career in any part of GA while waiting for that turbine/airline job. The cost to remain current without an aviation job is high and the cost to get back into the swing of things after several years away is prohibitively expensive for many. Don't even get me started on the impact of continuous rule changes. There just isn't that many people these days who will make a gamble on initiating or restarting an aviation career when they see the airlines attacking T & C's with such gusto. Until a perceived attractive career path is re-established there won't be the necessary people making the financial and personal committment towards a commercial aviation career.
As for private pilots...there are many advantages to the private pilot route, particularly as disposable income is so high, but between a doomsaying adventurer killing any aspect of fun and prestige, a GA group in the past that has only wanted to use the industry as a pawn for personal egos and conquests by choosing battles at whim with anyone and anything regarded as being in government, and aviation businesses that have bleeded basic business acumen, these advantages have become forgotten and unannounced. The whole reason and joy behind private flying has become lost in an age of cost recovery, user pays, finger pointing and personal point scoring. Is there anyone who still promotes the fun of private flying?
To me, it appears like the whole aviation industry has become one confounded by short term proponents. It might be too late now to impact the initial fallout, but put some measures in place to retain and highlight affordable and rewardable involvement in the industry and the coming fluctuation might resemble a rumble rather than an implosion.
The pilots who don't make the airlines or can't get a turbine seat for whatever reason don't get a decent paycheque and have nothing to stay in the industry for. There's no soft landing for any commercial pilot without an aviation job! It's accepted by any new pilot that low wages are the norm for a few years, but family aspirations put the sword to any long term career in any part of GA while waiting for that turbine/airline job. The cost to remain current without an aviation job is high and the cost to get back into the swing of things after several years away is prohibitively expensive for many. Don't even get me started on the impact of continuous rule changes. There just isn't that many people these days who will make a gamble on initiating or restarting an aviation career when they see the airlines attacking T & C's with such gusto. Until a perceived attractive career path is re-established there won't be the necessary people making the financial and personal committment towards a commercial aviation career.
As for private pilots...there are many advantages to the private pilot route, particularly as disposable income is so high, but between a doomsaying adventurer killing any aspect of fun and prestige, a GA group in the past that has only wanted to use the industry as a pawn for personal egos and conquests by choosing battles at whim with anyone and anything regarded as being in government, and aviation businesses that have bleeded basic business acumen, these advantages have become forgotten and unannounced. The whole reason and joy behind private flying has become lost in an age of cost recovery, user pays, finger pointing and personal point scoring. Is there anyone who still promotes the fun of private flying?
To me, it appears like the whole aviation industry has become one confounded by short term proponents. It might be too late now to impact the initial fallout, but put some measures in place to retain and highlight affordable and rewardable involvement in the industry and the coming fluctuation might resemble a rumble rather than an implosion.
Last edited by Lodown; 16th Sep 2006 at 16:28.
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I totally agree with LoDown. I have not even got into the industry, just finishing up my degrees, and I'm alreayd looking down other avenues rather than flying to my dismay. I won't elaborate much cuz lodown did a wounderous job of what I have to say anyways but why would or how could anyone justify spending the money it takes to start a flying career when there is no job guarantee in the end. With doctors, lawyers etc, your guaranteed an income of 100,000+ (well at least with a doctor) /yr and you've essentially spent the same amount of money. Now the knowledge obtained is a huge factor but I bet on a daily basis any commercial pilots deals with more ppls lives than any doctor ever could in a given year.
Unfortunately, in a couple years after giving up on my dream and becoming a corporate monkey flying on private planes and feeling sorry for the pilot whose spent his lifetime getting to where he is and at that point he probably won't even be making the amount of money ppl are paying in income taxes! I also think ppl who say "your not flying for the right reasons, money shouldn't be your reason" is bullsh*t, your not happy when you can't pay your flight school bills!
Unfortunately, in a couple years after giving up on my dream and becoming a corporate monkey flying on private planes and feeling sorry for the pilot whose spent his lifetime getting to where he is and at that point he probably won't even be making the amount of money ppl are paying in income taxes! I also think ppl who say "your not flying for the right reasons, money shouldn't be your reason" is bullsh*t, your not happy when you can't pay your flight school bills!
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My 2 cents for what it is worth!
I have read enough on this forum, received responses from threads I have posted and spoken to friends in the industry to be fairly confident in saying, it is very unlikely that there is ever to be a shortage of Pilots in OZ. There certainly maybe in Asia, and this may take some of the more experience pilots from Oz, but when they are ready to return to Oz they will be lining up at the door of QF, Virgin, J* etc, and those Aust airlines will be more than happy to take on those guys with Jet experience. What I am saying is there will be a cycle of pilots going off shore, get more experience and then get into the Australia airlines when oppotunities exist. Hence, can't really see any shortage here, espeacially for low hour pilots. Not too say that there isn't some movement in the industry, but it always has been and will be cyclical in aviation. I know of med to high hour guys, stuck in GA, or regionals that can't get a look in either here or in Asia. Give it a go by all means, I am all for a healthy industry, I would just hate for people to get unrealistic expectations from what I believe to be slightly inaccurate reporting.
Just a touch of reality, not meaning to be all doom and gloom but some info from my experience. I haven't flown commercially for a couple of years now, but when I last did the company I flew for had 6 base pilots. Out of that 6 only 2 have managed to get into the airlines in OZ and stay in the industry. The other 4 including me are not currently in the industry. Out of that 4 the lowest hours were about the 1000 hr mark, and they highest 4500 hr mark. This is not too say for everyone reading the article in the paper, they shouldn't be positive about it, certainly reads better than saying there is an over supply of pilots. I would just ask all who do read it to Please keep some perspective on the real situation, because I don't think we are near a time where there is a critical shortage.
I have read enough on this forum, received responses from threads I have posted and spoken to friends in the industry to be fairly confident in saying, it is very unlikely that there is ever to be a shortage of Pilots in OZ. There certainly maybe in Asia, and this may take some of the more experience pilots from Oz, but when they are ready to return to Oz they will be lining up at the door of QF, Virgin, J* etc, and those Aust airlines will be more than happy to take on those guys with Jet experience. What I am saying is there will be a cycle of pilots going off shore, get more experience and then get into the Australia airlines when oppotunities exist. Hence, can't really see any shortage here, espeacially for low hour pilots. Not too say that there isn't some movement in the industry, but it always has been and will be cyclical in aviation. I know of med to high hour guys, stuck in GA, or regionals that can't get a look in either here or in Asia. Give it a go by all means, I am all for a healthy industry, I would just hate for people to get unrealistic expectations from what I believe to be slightly inaccurate reporting.
Just a touch of reality, not meaning to be all doom and gloom but some info from my experience. I haven't flown commercially for a couple of years now, but when I last did the company I flew for had 6 base pilots. Out of that 6 only 2 have managed to get into the airlines in OZ and stay in the industry. The other 4 including me are not currently in the industry. Out of that 4 the lowest hours were about the 1000 hr mark, and they highest 4500 hr mark. This is not too say for everyone reading the article in the paper, they shouldn't be positive about it, certainly reads better than saying there is an over supply of pilots. I would just ask all who do read it to Please keep some perspective on the real situation, because I don't think we are near a time where there is a critical shortage.
Grandpa Aerotart
Well I have some news for you....this is as good as it gets.
It has always been the survival of the most bloody minded....note I didn't say smartest, best, or most naturally talented.
Two huge differences between now and 20+ years ago when I was a newly minted CPL?
2/. Lots of jobs everywhere
3/. A place, Pprune, where those less driven can congregate and seek sympathy.
There is a message for those who do not make it in the climate of the last 10 years.
You picked the wrong career. You were possibly a reasonable pilot in all respects but the one that counts...that 'it' factor.
The most fundamentally important part of the 'it' factor is you just don't give up and leave the industry. If job progression is not happening in Australia you go where ever your level of experience dictates...that might mean darkest Africa or PNG and then you just stay there until you break into jets/airlines there...and then you see where that takes you in the world. Family does not intervene nor a new car, nor anything else that distracts....particularly not girlfriends...if they are not with the program they get dumped.
If that is unacceptable on any of the numerous levels things like that could be deemed unacceptable then tough...you didn't want to fly badly enough...you didn't have 'it'.
So move on and see what you do have the 'it' factor for.
Anyone who comes into this industry thinking the only worthwhile job is QF or jets is almost certainly bound for dissappointment if they stay in Australia...it has been ever thus
...at least 9 out of 10 people who start out with that goal don't succeed.
I would go as far as to suggest that if you learn to fly to be a Qantas pilot you started with the wrong motivation.
If you think I am being harsh and that you should have been able to get a job flying for QF, VB or whomever just because you meet or exceed their minimum requirements you truly miss the point.
It has always been the survival of the most bloody minded....note I didn't say smartest, best, or most naturally talented.
Two huge differences between now and 20+ years ago when I was a newly minted CPL?
2/. Lots of jobs everywhere
3/. A place, Pprune, where those less driven can congregate and seek sympathy.
There is a message for those who do not make it in the climate of the last 10 years.
You picked the wrong career. You were possibly a reasonable pilot in all respects but the one that counts...that 'it' factor.
The most fundamentally important part of the 'it' factor is you just don't give up and leave the industry. If job progression is not happening in Australia you go where ever your level of experience dictates...that might mean darkest Africa or PNG and then you just stay there until you break into jets/airlines there...and then you see where that takes you in the world. Family does not intervene nor a new car, nor anything else that distracts....particularly not girlfriends...if they are not with the program they get dumped.
If that is unacceptable on any of the numerous levels things like that could be deemed unacceptable then tough...you didn't want to fly badly enough...you didn't have 'it'.
So move on and see what you do have the 'it' factor for.
Anyone who comes into this industry thinking the only worthwhile job is QF or jets is almost certainly bound for dissappointment if they stay in Australia...it has been ever thus
...at least 9 out of 10 people who start out with that goal don't succeed. I would go as far as to suggest that if you learn to fly to be a Qantas pilot you started with the wrong motivation.
If you think I am being harsh and that you should have been able to get a job flying for QF, VB or whomever just because you meet or exceed their minimum requirements you truly miss the point.
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Hi Chimbu
Not wishing to get into an argument with you and complete respect as you are an ATPL flying jets, and I am as I stated not in the industry and as you have stated I am one without the "it" factor. I can assure you I tried very hard and long in this country, I wasn't in a postion where overseas was an option for me. I tried and partly succeded here getting into charter. I believe I did better than 50% of who qualified with me at the same time in that I actually reached a full time position for a time. I made my choices and I have now taken a different path with my career, where I don't get treated like sh*t by every GA operator I either worked for or tried to get work with. I now get paid well in a regular hour job, in an interesting field, not one that I am passionate about but more than happy to do as my life style is now normal and not dictated by a dream and lifestyle that is not real anyway. I admit I am standing by the sidelines making comment now, but I have been in the game before, have mates still in the game and as stated out of the game and I think I have a reasonable feel for the industry. I still feel that "THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF LOW TIME PILOTS IN THIS COUNTRY AND THE NEVER WILL BE". Yes the time maybe great O/S, but not everyone is in a position to move O/S.
Back to my point, the article in question had a serious bent towards a shortage at some point in this country. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. The only shortage I hear of is for instructors, and that is the top end of instructing at grade 2 and above.
Not wishing to get into an argument with you and complete respect as you are an ATPL flying jets, and I am as I stated not in the industry and as you have stated I am one without the "it" factor. I can assure you I tried very hard and long in this country, I wasn't in a postion where overseas was an option for me. I tried and partly succeded here getting into charter. I believe I did better than 50% of who qualified with me at the same time in that I actually reached a full time position for a time. I made my choices and I have now taken a different path with my career, where I don't get treated like sh*t by every GA operator I either worked for or tried to get work with. I now get paid well in a regular hour job, in an interesting field, not one that I am passionate about but more than happy to do as my life style is now normal and not dictated by a dream and lifestyle that is not real anyway. I admit I am standing by the sidelines making comment now, but I have been in the game before, have mates still in the game and as stated out of the game and I think I have a reasonable feel for the industry. I still feel that "THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF LOW TIME PILOTS IN THIS COUNTRY AND THE NEVER WILL BE". Yes the time maybe great O/S, but not everyone is in a position to move O/S.
Back to my point, the article in question had a serious bent towards a shortage at some point in this country. IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. The only shortage I hear of is for instructors, and that is the top end of instructing at grade 2 and above.
Grandpa Aerotart
Don't get me wrong allingoodtime...I think it is great that you have found an alternative and I hope you're truly happy...and I hope you earn enough to fly for fun if you so wish.
My success is about 90% bloody minded and 9% luck,1% talent...I am where I am because it's ALL I ever wanted and I am hopeless at all other methods of making a living...I get depressed (I am being serious) if I can't fly. If I wasn't in jets I would happily be flying RFDS, Coastwatch or in a war zone in Africa...in fact to be perfectly honest one day I will go back to that because Jets are NOT the reason I learned to fly.
I learned to fly because it is a living and breathing passion that goes beyond all reason...one of the first things I said to my ex wife was don't ever make me chose because you WILL lose...that aint why we are divorced...she left for another pilot
...but if it was a factor I could care less
In my view anything less than the above level of committment moves the % of luck required a long way up the scale.
And I agree entirely with you and have said as much myself many times on this forum...there has never been and will never be a shortage of 'pilots' in Oz. There is a world wide shortage of experienced pilots. A % of pilots in Australia will benefit from that and a MUCH LARGER % will not...that is just the way it is.
My success is about 90% bloody minded and 9% luck,1% talent...I am where I am because it's ALL I ever wanted and I am hopeless at all other methods of making a living...I get depressed (I am being serious) if I can't fly. If I wasn't in jets I would happily be flying RFDS, Coastwatch or in a war zone in Africa...in fact to be perfectly honest one day I will go back to that because Jets are NOT the reason I learned to fly.
I learned to fly because it is a living and breathing passion that goes beyond all reason...one of the first things I said to my ex wife was don't ever make me chose because you WILL lose...that aint why we are divorced...she left for another pilot
...but if it was a factor I could care lessIn my view anything less than the above level of committment moves the % of luck required a long way up the scale.
And I agree entirely with you and have said as much myself many times on this forum...there has never been and will never be a shortage of 'pilots' in Oz. There is a world wide shortage of experienced pilots. A % of pilots in Australia will benefit from that and a MUCH LARGER % will not...that is just the way it is.
Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 17th Sep 2006 at 15:43.
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Chimbu
I think we are in agreement. Sorry for the shouting, I agree with you, maybe I just didn't have the same level of bloody mindedness in the end, maybe at the start of the whole process, but by the end no, I was just sick of it all.
We agree no shortage here and yes it part maybe O/S.
Chimbu goodluck with the rest of your flying, hope it brings happiness to you that in the end it didn't to me.
I think we are in agreement. Sorry for the shouting, I agree with you, maybe I just didn't have the same level of bloody mindedness in the end, maybe at the start of the whole process, but by the end no, I was just sick of it all.
We agree no shortage here and yes it part maybe O/S.
Chimbu goodluck with the rest of your flying, hope it brings happiness to you that in the end it didn't to me.
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Chimbu,
Excellent!! that's exactly how I feel...
My success is about 90% bloody minded and 9% luck,1% talent...I am where I am because it's ALL I ever wanted and I am hopeless at all other methods of making a living...I get depressed (I am being serious) if I can't fly. If I wasn't in jets I would happily be flying RFDS, Coastwatch or in a war zone in Africa...in fact to be perfectly honest one day I will go back to that because Jets are NOT the reason I learned to fly.
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Just a differing opinion to several posters above. Without data, I'm probably p1ssing in the wind, but just a feeling makes me think this time we are heading for a pilot shortage. (Perhaps someone with more time on their hands and better research skills can post the relevant data.) Great for pilots. Bad for employers. The current aviation climate is different from past events and I think it is unwise to dismiss pilot training schools' claims as just more marketing rhetoric. My reasons are several including what was written on my previous post about retaining commercial pilots and their skills and encouraging private aviation.
First, there isn't the same situation of ex-military pilots available to join the civilian life like there was after WW2 and Vietnam.
Second, the pilot retention rate within airlines does not seem to be as strong as in the past creating a very fluid employment pool. Large numbers of pilots can move with relative ease between the highest bidders. This is of little concern to an employer with a surplus of pilots in the market, but is completely the opposite if there's a shortage.
Third, the perceived difference in pilot rewards (not just money) and rewards gained from other careers is not as marked as it once was, and it could be argued, has actually swung the other way to favour the 9 to 5, 5 day workweek with weekends off. With plenty of jobs available in the cities, not as many of the current generation see the bush as a necessary component in gaining experience, so they are passing the aviation career opportunities. It's a more materialistic generation now and they don't want to waste time in hotels when they could be home enjoying the fruits of their labour.
Fourth, tertiary education has become more important for all careers and part of the outcome is that graduates have more choice in careers and in moving between careers. What I'm trying to highlight in my post above is that once they get out of aviation, they're gone for good. What a waste of talent! The 'it' you speak of Chimbu carried a lot of weight with our generation. The reward for 'it' is being found in many non-traditional ways by the Y generation, particularly in careers outside of an employer/employee arrangement, and it's unfortunate that general aviation hasn't been able to tap into the disposable income that this has produced in a very beneficial or effective way. Not many of the Y generation (or is it the 'Now' generation?) see 'it' as being necessary when working for someone else.
Fifth, the population bell curve peak for western countries is rapidly passing into retirement meaning more retirees being supported by less workers. We're heading into a decade or two of worker shortages in all industries, not just aviation. If aviation does not remain competitive as an employing industry, it stands to lose more than most.
Sixth, there is a greater awareness in the community of getting a return on investment, risk and the careers which provide the most for one with the least of the other. Flying doesn't stack up well on these metrics.
Taken individually, these reasons don't amount to much. Combined, I think they may have a considerable effect. A love of flying is one reason for many to be in aviation, but it is only one reason among a multitude of reasons for many other pilots, each with different priorities. The difference between a surplus and shortage is often only a matter of degrees and I think we are starting to see that shift now, but it might not be apparent for another five or so years on the flight line. We're starting to see a little with the 'pilot wanted' ads in the paper. It might be experienced pilots in demand at present, but I expect this to shift to a demand for pilots at all levels relatively soon and particularly in mid-level GA positions (Grade 1 and 2 instructors and IFR twin drivers) as jet operators seek pilots with less qualifications to fill positions. From what I've read, student pilot numbers are well down on those 10 or 20 years ago.
I suspect that in the current climate, if we project lines on a graph out to 10 or 20 years, the line titled, "Pilots Available" would be seen crossing under and diverging well below the line titled, "Pilots Required". Market forces will make the adjustment and a little pilot shortage might be a good thing. But a more intense pilot shortage could hurt the industry. What I have tried to add to the discussion is that there are many pilots who have left the industry and because of the barriers to re-entry, will not be coming back. If or when there is a protracted pilot shortage, the cost to the employer and therefore the consumer, is going to be doubly high. It means having to wait years to build up a pool of experienced pilots as new pilots have to be attracted and trained.
Only too happy to say I was wrong if reality proves me so. In the meantime, I'm just adding to the rumour mill by expressing an opinion.
First, there isn't the same situation of ex-military pilots available to join the civilian life like there was after WW2 and Vietnam.
Second, the pilot retention rate within airlines does not seem to be as strong as in the past creating a very fluid employment pool. Large numbers of pilots can move with relative ease between the highest bidders. This is of little concern to an employer with a surplus of pilots in the market, but is completely the opposite if there's a shortage.
Third, the perceived difference in pilot rewards (not just money) and rewards gained from other careers is not as marked as it once was, and it could be argued, has actually swung the other way to favour the 9 to 5, 5 day workweek with weekends off. With plenty of jobs available in the cities, not as many of the current generation see the bush as a necessary component in gaining experience, so they are passing the aviation career opportunities. It's a more materialistic generation now and they don't want to waste time in hotels when they could be home enjoying the fruits of their labour.
Fourth, tertiary education has become more important for all careers and part of the outcome is that graduates have more choice in careers and in moving between careers. What I'm trying to highlight in my post above is that once they get out of aviation, they're gone for good. What a waste of talent! The 'it' you speak of Chimbu carried a lot of weight with our generation. The reward for 'it' is being found in many non-traditional ways by the Y generation, particularly in careers outside of an employer/employee arrangement, and it's unfortunate that general aviation hasn't been able to tap into the disposable income that this has produced in a very beneficial or effective way. Not many of the Y generation (or is it the 'Now' generation?) see 'it' as being necessary when working for someone else.
Fifth, the population bell curve peak for western countries is rapidly passing into retirement meaning more retirees being supported by less workers. We're heading into a decade or two of worker shortages in all industries, not just aviation. If aviation does not remain competitive as an employing industry, it stands to lose more than most.
Sixth, there is a greater awareness in the community of getting a return on investment, risk and the careers which provide the most for one with the least of the other. Flying doesn't stack up well on these metrics.
Taken individually, these reasons don't amount to much. Combined, I think they may have a considerable effect. A love of flying is one reason for many to be in aviation, but it is only one reason among a multitude of reasons for many other pilots, each with different priorities. The difference between a surplus and shortage is often only a matter of degrees and I think we are starting to see that shift now, but it might not be apparent for another five or so years on the flight line. We're starting to see a little with the 'pilot wanted' ads in the paper. It might be experienced pilots in demand at present, but I expect this to shift to a demand for pilots at all levels relatively soon and particularly in mid-level GA positions (Grade 1 and 2 instructors and IFR twin drivers) as jet operators seek pilots with less qualifications to fill positions. From what I've read, student pilot numbers are well down on those 10 or 20 years ago.
I suspect that in the current climate, if we project lines on a graph out to 10 or 20 years, the line titled, "Pilots Available" would be seen crossing under and diverging well below the line titled, "Pilots Required". Market forces will make the adjustment and a little pilot shortage might be a good thing. But a more intense pilot shortage could hurt the industry. What I have tried to add to the discussion is that there are many pilots who have left the industry and because of the barriers to re-entry, will not be coming back. If or when there is a protracted pilot shortage, the cost to the employer and therefore the consumer, is going to be doubly high. It means having to wait years to build up a pool of experienced pilots as new pilots have to be attracted and trained.
Only too happy to say I was wrong if reality proves me so. In the meantime, I'm just adding to the rumour mill by expressing an opinion.
Last edited by Lodown; 18th Sep 2006 at 21:26.
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Lodown hit the nail on the head
Right on the money Lodown.
Following your logic a little bit further, should there be a vitriolic campaign in the media, it just reinforces to potential pilots that the risk of entering the industry is increasing.
This is the paradox for managers, the more successful their public campaign to bash pilots, the greater their problems in the medium to longterm.
Following your logic a little bit further, should there be a vitriolic campaign in the media, it just reinforces to potential pilots that the risk of entering the industry is increasing.
This is the paradox for managers, the more successful their public campaign to bash pilots, the greater their problems in the medium to longterm.
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Pilot Shortage
It is funny how eveyone keeps saying that it is going to be Pilot shortage but i know a lot of pilots that starting from 500 to 3000 hours can hardly find a job and all of the sudden there is a pilot shortage and i liked the comment i can not remeber who said it but it was in this page and he said '' It is funny the only people that think that there is a pilot shortage are the aviation school'' I wish i will see that but i truly doubt it 
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Hobson's choice
I got out of the industry after Ansett - too many pilots available at my level (twin IFR Charter) and wise, I thought, to let the dust settle.
I kept instructing about 300 hours/year and I am working in the mining industry earning over $2,000/week for my 40 hours. Yes it is dirty and yes there is shift work... but it is also quite technical in parts and reasonably challenging.
With bu99er-all experience or qualifications I am earning close to that which the Mining Engineers are paid, and I go home each night without worrying about work. It is true for many professions - an old girlfriend is an Elec. Engineer and she designed & certified much of the lighting around the Olympic site in Sydney... AND YET she is paid half the salary of the tradesmen who installed it.
Is there a shortage of experienced pilots? Well after 5 years of applications I am suddenly getting offers of interview with those Regionals I always wanted to fly for. There is nothing about my application that has become more competitive - what other reason than a shortage of experienced drivers?
Will I uproot my family and leave the town that has become home (not to mention the reMUNeration), merely to drive turboprops, on the gamble that it might lead further up the tree? 
... go from $120k in the country to $45k in Sydney? 
The only reason employers look for an abiding love of flying and aviation in their pilots is so they can continue to push you harder for less money.
To her credit, the cook has said "yes we will go" but is this what a 'real' man would do? Subject his family to near-poverty and the uncertainty that is an aviation "career"?
The computer says....
I kept instructing about 300 hours/year and I am working in the mining industry earning over $2,000/week for my 40 hours. Yes it is dirty and yes there is shift work... but it is also quite technical in parts and reasonably challenging.
With bu99er-all experience or qualifications I am earning close to that which the Mining Engineers are paid, and I go home each night without worrying about work. It is true for many professions - an old girlfriend is an Elec. Engineer and she designed & certified much of the lighting around the Olympic site in Sydney... AND YET she is paid half the salary of the tradesmen who installed it.
Is there a shortage of experienced pilots? Well after 5 years of applications I am suddenly getting offers of interview with those Regionals I always wanted to fly for. There is nothing about my application that has become more competitive - what other reason than a shortage of experienced drivers?
Will I uproot my family and leave the town that has become home (not to mention the reMUNeration), merely to drive turboprops, on the gamble that it might lead further up the tree?
... go from $120k in the country to $45k in Sydney? The only reason employers look for an abiding love of flying and aviation in their pilots is so they can continue to push you harder for less money.
To her credit, the cook has said "yes we will go" but is this what a 'real' man would do? Subject his family to near-poverty and the uncertainty that is an aviation "career"?
The computer says....
Last edited by Bendo; 19th Sep 2006 at 00:04. Reason: Edited to edit out the DTA's in the FO's wages
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Ask for more money! You are in a good bargining position. You have a steady job that pays almost three times what they are offering. You don't have to except ANY job just to eat- They don't have you over the proverbial barrel! Plus you are getting enough flying to keep current.
If your hunch is correct about the shortage you might be able to get a better offer in the future...
Seriously, $45K to live in Sydney, you will experience a quantum DECREASE in you lifestyle, so that in 2 or three years you may get lucky in a job that will not even pay what you are on now. Add in the pay for your own training. You will still be way behind. Remember in aviation, it is the family that pays the real price, not the pilot.
If your hunch is correct about the shortage you might be able to get a better offer in the future...
Seriously, $45K to live in Sydney, you will experience a quantum DECREASE in you lifestyle, so that in 2 or three years you may get lucky in a job that will not even pay what you are on now. Add in the pay for your own training. You will still be way behind. Remember in aviation, it is the family that pays the real price, not the pilot.
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I doubt things are that desperate in the regionals yet...they do not need to risk pissing off every other pilot in the company just to get Bendo.
Bendo it is completely your decision but perhaps if you look at the regional job as a stepping stone to a better paid airline job, overseas if necesary, it won't seem so much like turning off the money permanently?
That you even ask the question, and have been applying to flying jobs all this time, suggests you know the answer already...perhaps its not just about money?
Beside you would have saved a reasonable proportion...enough to cushion the sideways step a while...and you can always come back to what you are doing now...best of luck
Bendo it is completely your decision but perhaps if you look at the regional job as a stepping stone to a better paid airline job, overseas if necesary, it won't seem so much like turning off the money permanently?
That you even ask the question, and have been applying to flying jobs all this time, suggests you know the answer already...perhaps its not just about money?
Beside you would have saved a reasonable proportion...enough to cushion the sideways step a while...and you can always come back to what you are doing now...best of luck
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Ask for more money! You are in a good bargining position. You have a steady job that pays almost three times what they are offering. You don't have to except ANY job just to eat- They don't have you over the proverbial barrel!
The story is different for, say direct entry C&T captains outside the regional environment.
That puts guys like Bendo in a quandry. Bendo has enough knowledge of, and time in the industry to be able to put the emotional side of "needing/wanting" to fly into perspective, when considering the impact of such a huge pay cut on not only himself, but his family.
The truth is that earnings in the order of $120k+ is many years away. And it's unlikely to ever be achieved by a line pilot in a regional outfit. Having been through a similar situation, I doubt I'd take the same path if I had my time over. My family has been through hell. They deserved better.
Tell you what Bendo: I'll swap ya
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If there ever is a shortage, it will be because the risk/work vs reward ratio has become ridiculous (we are already starting to see this trend). This is obviously not a good thing. There is a very good reason why people aren’t attracted to the industry anymore. Whilst airlines become less attractive everyday, other industries continue to become more attractive. Although some people don’t like to believe it, there actually is life outside of aviation.
Agreed
We're heading into a decade or two of worker shortages in all industries, not just aviation. If aviation does not remain competitive as an employing industry, it stands to lose more than most.
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Pilot shortage
There may never be much of a problem, as the need increases the minimums will drop. at the moment the minimums remain relatively the same so the need mustnt be as dire just yet.
just check job advertisements to verify.
recent jobs,
2 chief pilot jobs both requiring only minimum 500 hours TT.
Instructor jobs dropped from grade 1 to grade 3 required.
now non discriminitive jobs with no benchmark are appearing.
come out bush and you will see how fast people are running through the usual steps.
i remember when i first came out here you needed 25 hours on 210 and 500 hrs min. now you get CP with that only need CPL and can drive a bus to get work.
plenty around if you look and feel there may be some problems in the future.
average age for rotary, LAME and Fixed wing has now increased 0.5 yrs of age per yr for last few years. now at 45-50. wait the next ten and see the need increase and mass retirements will multiply the problem exponentially.
maybe we need another vietnam or war to overcome it, thats the only thing that covered the aviation industry in the past...
just check job advertisements to verify.
recent jobs,
2 chief pilot jobs both requiring only minimum 500 hours TT.
Instructor jobs dropped from grade 1 to grade 3 required.
now non discriminitive jobs with no benchmark are appearing.
come out bush and you will see how fast people are running through the usual steps.
i remember when i first came out here you needed 25 hours on 210 and 500 hrs min. now you get CP with that only need CPL and can drive a bus to get work.
plenty around if you look and feel there may be some problems in the future.
average age for rotary, LAME and Fixed wing has now increased 0.5 yrs of age per yr for last few years. now at 45-50. wait the next ten and see the need increase and mass retirements will multiply the problem exponentially.
maybe we need another vietnam or war to overcome it, thats the only thing that covered the aviation industry in the past...