Just a differing opinion to several posters above. Without data, I'm probably p1ssing in the wind, but just a feeling makes me think this time we are heading for a pilot shortage. (Perhaps someone with more time on their hands and better research skills can post the relevant data.) Great for pilots. Bad for employers. The current aviation climate is different from past events and I think it is unwise to dismiss pilot training schools' claims as just more marketing rhetoric. My reasons are several including what was written on my previous post about retaining commercial pilots and their skills and encouraging private aviation.
First, there isn't the same situation of ex-military pilots available to join the civilian life like there was after WW2 and Vietnam.
Second, the pilot retention rate within airlines does not seem to be as strong as in the past creating a very fluid employment pool. Large numbers of pilots can move with relative ease between the highest bidders. This is of little concern to an employer with a surplus of pilots in the market, but is completely the opposite if there's a shortage.
Third, the perceived difference in pilot rewards (not just money) and rewards gained from other careers is not as marked as it once was, and it could be argued, has actually swung the other way to favour the 9 to 5, 5 day workweek with weekends off. With plenty of jobs available in the cities, not as many of the current generation see the bush as a necessary component in gaining experience, so they are passing the aviation career opportunities. It's a more materialistic generation now and they don't want to waste time in hotels when they could be home enjoying the fruits of their labour.
Fourth, tertiary education has become more important for all careers and part of the outcome is that graduates have more choice in careers and in moving between careers. What I'm trying to highlight in my post above is that once they get out of aviation, they're gone for good. What a waste of talent! The 'it' you speak of Chimbu carried a lot of weight with our generation. The reward for 'it' is being found in many non-traditional ways by the Y generation, particularly in careers outside of an employer/employee arrangement, and it's unfortunate that general aviation hasn't been able to tap into the disposable income that this has produced in a very beneficial or effective way. Not many of the Y generation (or is it the 'Now' generation?) see 'it' as being necessary when working for someone else.
Fifth, the population bell curve peak for western countries is rapidly passing into retirement meaning more retirees being supported by less workers. We're heading into a decade or two of worker shortages in all industries, not just aviation. If aviation does not remain competitive as an employing industry, it stands to lose more than most.
Sixth, there is a greater awareness in the community of getting a return on investment, risk and the careers which provide the most for one with the least of the other. Flying doesn't stack up well on these metrics.
Taken individually, these reasons don't amount to much. Combined, I think they may have a considerable effect. A love of flying is one reason for many to be in aviation, but it is only one reason among a multitude of reasons for many other pilots, each with different priorities. The difference between a surplus and shortage is often only a matter of degrees and I think we are starting to see that shift now, but it might not be apparent for another five or so years on the flight line. We're starting to see a little with the 'pilot wanted' ads in the paper. It might be experienced pilots in demand at present, but I expect this to shift to a demand for pilots at all levels relatively soon and particularly in mid-level GA positions (Grade 1 and 2 instructors and IFR twin drivers) as jet operators seek pilots with less qualifications to fill positions. From what I've read, student pilot numbers are well down on those 10 or 20 years ago.
I suspect that in the current climate, if we project lines on a graph out to 10 or 20 years, the line titled, "Pilots Available" would be seen crossing under and diverging well below the line titled, "Pilots Required". Market forces will make the adjustment and a little pilot shortage might be a good thing. But a more intense pilot shortage could hurt the industry. What I have tried to add to the discussion is that there are many pilots who have left the industry and because of the barriers to re-entry, will not be coming back. If or when there is a protracted pilot shortage, the cost to the employer and therefore the consumer, is going to be doubly high. It means having to wait years to build up a pool of experienced pilots as new pilots have to be attracted and trained.
Only too happy to say I was wrong if reality proves me so. In the meantime, I'm just adding to the rumour mill by expressing an opinion.
Last edited by Lodown; 18th Sep 2006 at 21:26.