Fear of Pilots Shortage...
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Fear of Pilots Shortage...
Found this on www.smh.com.au
Sure you would all be interested in reading...
Fear of pilots shortage
September 16, 2006
LEARNING to fly has become so expensive that Australia faces a big shortage of pilots, flying schools say. Foreign pilots will have to be imported for commercial and emergency services within a few years, they warn.
Pilots have to pay at least $60,000 to obtain a commercial licence - with no guarantee of an airline job - and aviation groups say a planned increase in control tower and pilot licence fees will make matters worse.
"In a very short space of time we're going to have a very acute shortage of pilots in this country," said Col Rodgers, of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association.
According to some estimates strong growth in the Asian airline industry will lead to a shortage of 10,000 commercial airline pilots in the region by 2010. That does not include a predicted shortage of flight instructors, charter pilots and regional airline pilots.
Ray Clamback, who has run a flying school at Bankstown Airport for about 40 years, said: "There's been a 50 or 60 per cent increase in the past two years. It wasn't long ago you would … pay $100 an hour to fly. Now we pay $170 and it drives people away."
Flying schools have been hit hard by rising fuel costs, and some have warned they could go broke if the Civil Aviation Safety Authority and Air Services Australia proceed with plans to raise charges. "The flying training industry on the east coast of Australia is on the verge of collapse," said Keith Robey, of Phoenix Aero Club at Hoxton Park Airport.
Mr Robey, whose club sold an aircraft to pay for a recent rent increase, blames the Federal Government for allowing the new private operators of Sydney's three main general aviation airports - Bankstown, Hoxton Park and Camden - to double rents.
"The Government's policy is absolutely ruinous," he said.
Mr Robey said it now cost $460 for a basic student licence. This did not include other fees, such as the $130 to process a medical certificate through the authority.
"If we discourage planning to fly, soon our supply of pilots will dry up and you soon will see your planes being flown by foreigners."
An instructor at Basair, Darrin Ward, said the cost of operating a small aircraft out of Bankstown had risen 143 per cent since the airport was privatised in 2003. Rising costs were undermining the country's reputation as the main flight training location in the Asia-Pacific region, he said.
Sure you would all be interested in reading...
Fear of pilots shortage
September 16, 2006
LEARNING to fly has become so expensive that Australia faces a big shortage of pilots, flying schools say. Foreign pilots will have to be imported for commercial and emergency services within a few years, they warn.
Pilots have to pay at least $60,000 to obtain a commercial licence - with no guarantee of an airline job - and aviation groups say a planned increase in control tower and pilot licence fees will make matters worse.
"In a very short space of time we're going to have a very acute shortage of pilots in this country," said Col Rodgers, of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association.
According to some estimates strong growth in the Asian airline industry will lead to a shortage of 10,000 commercial airline pilots in the region by 2010. That does not include a predicted shortage of flight instructors, charter pilots and regional airline pilots.
Ray Clamback, who has run a flying school at Bankstown Airport for about 40 years, said: "There's been a 50 or 60 per cent increase in the past two years. It wasn't long ago you would … pay $100 an hour to fly. Now we pay $170 and it drives people away."
Flying schools have been hit hard by rising fuel costs, and some have warned they could go broke if the Civil Aviation Safety Authority and Air Services Australia proceed with plans to raise charges. "The flying training industry on the east coast of Australia is on the verge of collapse," said Keith Robey, of Phoenix Aero Club at Hoxton Park Airport.
Mr Robey, whose club sold an aircraft to pay for a recent rent increase, blames the Federal Government for allowing the new private operators of Sydney's three main general aviation airports - Bankstown, Hoxton Park and Camden - to double rents.
"The Government's policy is absolutely ruinous," he said.
Mr Robey said it now cost $460 for a basic student licence. This did not include other fees, such as the $130 to process a medical certificate through the authority.
"If we discourage planning to fly, soon our supply of pilots will dry up and you soon will see your planes being flown by foreigners."
An instructor at Basair, Darrin Ward, said the cost of operating a small aircraft out of Bankstown had risen 143 per cent since the airport was privatised in 2003. Rising costs were undermining the country's reputation as the main flight training location in the Asia-Pacific region, he said.
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Ha Ha Ha, funniest thing that I have every heard, this must be why the interview offers are flooding in with my 3500 hours, 1000 medium jet, 1000 heavy turbo. Oh hang on, I can't even get my foot in the door because of all of the other guys out there who make my hours look pathetically small.
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Pilot Shortage Joke.
The only people who think there is a pilot shortage are the flying schools. The same people trying to generate new business. Salaries are abysmal and anybody wanting to take up flying now is either foolish or have too much money to waste. Unfortunately I am past my PNR.
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Well yes what did we all expect? and this is so true, the next 5 years will be exciting times. the pilot shortage is forcing airlines to look at a much lower level of experience for our prospective pilots then the 1500+hours recruitment. This could be good news in a way, but, is a Pilot shortage in Australia leading to GA crisis?
People are too discouraged to become pilots especially since other occupations offers better salaries and benefits, and..lets face it, the job prospects for airline pilots are much greater then what it is here. China will need approximately 10,000 new pilots in the next 15 years and lets not forget the rest of Asia. I know that we have talked for a long time about the potential for shortages and stretches to the truth.The pilot shortage is here as we speak! I remember reading an article a couple of months back that United Airlines was forced to cancel 186 flights across the U.S. because it had nobody available to fly the planes and there aren’t a sufficient number of reserve pilots available to help shoulder the load. The rate of movement at the moment is better then it ever was.
People are too discouraged to become pilots especially since other occupations offers better salaries and benefits, and..lets face it, the job prospects for airline pilots are much greater then what it is here. China will need approximately 10,000 new pilots in the next 15 years and lets not forget the rest of Asia. I know that we have talked for a long time about the potential for shortages and stretches to the truth.The pilot shortage is here as we speak! I remember reading an article a couple of months back that United Airlines was forced to cancel 186 flights across the U.S. because it had nobody available to fly the planes and there aren’t a sufficient number of reserve pilots available to help shoulder the load. The rate of movement at the moment is better then it ever was.
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After 9/11 Aviation passed trough a very bad period, mostly Airlines such as Ansett in Australia, Swiss Air and Sabena in Europe, US Air in North America etc therefore Petrol price has terrible increase in the last years and according to experts prices are still going up...I Think that's the main reason flying school have increase their fares;
Now Thank God the situation is gonna change, 4 brand of New Aircraft are coming within the next few years (A380, B787, A350 and B747-8) and, according to recent news, around 200.000 pilots will be hired within the next 20 years...
Flight Training here is expensive, I will pay almous 60 KAUD as well, but if I took it in Italy I should pay 70UUR that mean 110,000 AUD... so I suggest to wannabes DON'T GIVE UP...
Shining Time is coming back
Good Luck
C.
Now Thank God the situation is gonna change, 4 brand of New Aircraft are coming within the next few years (A380, B787, A350 and B747-8) and, according to recent news, around 200.000 pilots will be hired within the next 20 years...
Flight Training here is expensive, I will pay almous 60 KAUD as well, but if I took it in Italy I should pay 70UUR that mean 110,000 AUD... so I suggest to wannabes DON'T GIVE UP...
Shining Time is coming back
Good Luck
C.
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This subject has been done to death on threads elsewhere. There is no pilot shortage, and here in Oz there never will be because learning to fly here costs no more that a new up-market car. Plenty of wannabes will take flying lessons at that price and pay it back over the next ten years and drive an old banger instead of buying a shiny car. Like most of us did.
BUT not all these guys will get jobs, because there are only so many to be had at the entry level and in G.A. etc. This is not a growth market. That's the bit the flying schools tend to leave out.
But Captains with the right stuff as demanded by Chief Pilots, insurers, contracts etc is another matter. A shortage is already here and will remain until the wannabes come through the system and acquire the hours etc needed. That will take 5 years or more and meantime it will hurt operators who don't pay reasonable money as they will be competing against overseas operators who do. 60 year old pilots are already being asked to hang around for a few more years and a few others are drifting back from overseas looking for hobby jobs, but the Captain shortage is certainly becoming a problem.
BUT not all these guys will get jobs, because there are only so many to be had at the entry level and in G.A. etc. This is not a growth market. That's the bit the flying schools tend to leave out.
But Captains with the right stuff as demanded by Chief Pilots, insurers, contracts etc is another matter. A shortage is already here and will remain until the wannabes come through the system and acquire the hours etc needed. That will take 5 years or more and meantime it will hurt operators who don't pay reasonable money as they will be competing against overseas operators who do. 60 year old pilots are already being asked to hang around for a few more years and a few others are drifting back from overseas looking for hobby jobs, but the Captain shortage is certainly becoming a problem.
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And what a joke... Basair is bigger now than what it ever has been. Occupying more buildings around the airport than ever. Having recently purchased multiple new aircraft, albeit cheaper to run.
Pilot shortage, my @&$#.
With you Aussie, cant wait to see it. Maybe then, just maybe those airline applications will have served there purpose.
Pilot shortage, my @&$#.
With you Aussie, cant wait to see it. Maybe then, just maybe those airline applications will have served there purpose.
Grandpa Aerotart
Was perusing yesterday's The Australian aviation section enroute and cannot remember seeing as many pilot jobs advertised...particularly rotary wing.
The coming crunch for helicopter pilots is caused by an historic oversupply of chopper pilots caused by the Vietnam War...they are all retiring in a rush and precious little has ever been done to ameliorate that eventuality. Helicopter Operators the world over have enjoyed a 30 year period of plenty thanks to the massive training carried out by the military in the 1960s and 70s...they had very little need to employ low time pilots because there were many 1000s with large turbine helicopter experience. The relatively high cost of learning to fly rotary wing combined with the extreme difficulty finding decent work in the rotary field over the last 30 years, if you were a newbie civil chopper hopeful, now means that a cronic shortage is materialising at a rapid rate.
The fixed wing side has suffered all the same over supply problems for many of the same reasons but not to anything like the same extent...but it is coming too.
I suspect the big driver (one of at least) for lowered T&Cs from the likes of GD is a reaction to this outlook where T&Cs will be driven upwards...they are desperately trying to lower the starting point to alleviate their pain when the end game becomes obvious.
CEOs look at long term...5-10 yrs...the average pilot's idea of 'long term' is next year...It would not surprise me at all if airline management at airlines like QF know more about the looming aviation skills shortage than almost anyone else.
And why slag off aganst these operators at the entry level? New pilots have to come from somewhere...they are making perfectly valid points and it is at last getting into the mainstream media...don't knock it, embrace it.
The coming crunch for helicopter pilots is caused by an historic oversupply of chopper pilots caused by the Vietnam War...they are all retiring in a rush and precious little has ever been done to ameliorate that eventuality. Helicopter Operators the world over have enjoyed a 30 year period of plenty thanks to the massive training carried out by the military in the 1960s and 70s...they had very little need to employ low time pilots because there were many 1000s with large turbine helicopter experience. The relatively high cost of learning to fly rotary wing combined with the extreme difficulty finding decent work in the rotary field over the last 30 years, if you were a newbie civil chopper hopeful, now means that a cronic shortage is materialising at a rapid rate.
The fixed wing side has suffered all the same over supply problems for many of the same reasons but not to anything like the same extent...but it is coming too.
I suspect the big driver (one of at least) for lowered T&Cs from the likes of GD is a reaction to this outlook where T&Cs will be driven upwards...they are desperately trying to lower the starting point to alleviate their pain when the end game becomes obvious.
CEOs look at long term...5-10 yrs...the average pilot's idea of 'long term' is next year...It would not surprise me at all if airline management at airlines like QF know more about the looming aviation skills shortage than almost anyone else.
And why slag off aganst these operators at the entry level? New pilots have to come from somewhere...they are making perfectly valid points and it is at last getting into the mainstream media...don't knock it, embrace it.
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The industry will never have a shortage of applicants in general, but will I believe have a struggle attracting "the most suitable" applicants. Many of the more intelligent candidates will choose other careers which provide far more generous packages from day one. I understand as much as the next person that you don't need straight A's to fly an aircraft, however by maintaining such low educational standards, in comparison to other professions, you really are opening the door up for reduced pay levels. Nurses, teachers, accountants etc have quite consistent and generous packages because they are all required to hold formal and reasonably high education levels before they commence training. If accounting was opened to anyone with just a standard pass at senior, or even year 10, you would see the salaries tumble as people who previously couldn't enter the industry begin practicing. Now you don't need straight A's to become an accountant, I know this at first hand, but the pure fact that everyone who begins practice has above average grades ensures the generous renumeration packages are maintained. Professional and intelligent people generally seek high paying jobs, thats a fact. How many people did you go to school with who were in perhaps the top 30% of the class pursue careers which paid the national average? Now look at the "professional" industry in which we find ourselves. Pilots are falling over themselves to take jobs with piss poor CoS because many of them would be flat out getting a job doing anything else. I know this for a fact because many of the guys I have flown with have told me. If they were retrenched tomorrow many would be stuffed because they have such poor education. As a result, they are aware they are on a pretty good wicket so they will accept whatever CoS management choose to flush them. These pilots are the enthusists of the industry, not the professionals. Effectively they have no hand. I can't see the education criteria for the airlines changing so get used to being served up garbage pay rates.
People will always choose reduced conditions if its better than what they would normally be accustomed to.
Some of you people need to view your position as a profession which you are applying your skill, and demand to be renumerated for it, rather than skipping through the terminal in love with the thought you are going flying with the latest copy of Australian Flying and Aircraft Modeller stuffed under your arm.
People will always choose reduced conditions if its better than what they would normally be accustomed to.
Some of you people need to view your position as a profession which you are applying your skill, and demand to be renumerated for it, rather than skipping through the terminal in love with the thought you are going flying with the latest copy of Australian Flying and Aircraft Modeller stuffed under your arm.
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Really though why would anyone in Oz put themselves thru all that expense and commitment when all that awaits them is Jetstar or Virgin Blue? I just don't think the carrot is big enough and a pilot shortage is likely in Oz in the next 10 years.
I highly doubt that foreign pilots will be coming to Australia anywhere in the near future to fill commercial jobs. Given that the rest of the world gets by with minimum entry requirements that are basically half to 1/3 of what Australia's are maybe airlines just need to bite the bullet and lower the entry requirements. You can get interviews with regionals in the US with 1000TT and a hundred multi. Whereas in Australia you have to have 2000 TT and 700 Multi + to be considered competitive. (most of them want to see some charter time mixed in there as well) And this is for a job that pays on the whole less than $50 000 a year.
Cunningham I have met people who are highly skilled, multiple degrees always had top office jobs and are now busily undercutting all and sundry get where they want to be. As they are cashed up they can bypass alot of hurdles by just paying. Whilst I agree with your sentiments regard to education, enthusist are not necessarily just limited to those without the education to go anywhere else.
Cunningham I have met people who are highly skilled, multiple degrees always had top office jobs and are now busily undercutting all and sundry get where they want to be. As they are cashed up they can bypass alot of hurdles by just paying. Whilst I agree with your sentiments regard to education, enthusist are not necessarily just limited to those without the education to go anywhere else.
Last edited by neville_nobody; 16th Sep 2006 at 04:11.
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I think you are missing a valid point guys - the fleecing of GA by privatised airport owners, and the removal of airports all together by greedy councils who are breaching their obligations on the land use that was inherited from the Federal Government.
The so called user-pays fees are spiralling - with no interest what so ever from the Federal Government.
If their is no supply of local pilots to meet the airlines tight criteria, they are then permitted to recruit from overseas.
The so called user-pays fees are spiralling - with no interest what so ever from the Federal Government.
If their is no supply of local pilots to meet the airlines tight criteria, they are then permitted to recruit from overseas.
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I understand as much as the next person that you don't need straight A's to fly an aircraft, however by maintaining such low educational standards, in comparison to other professions, you really are opening the door up for reduced pay levels.
Really though why would anyone in Oz put themselves thru all that expense and commitment when all that awaits them is Jetstar or Virgin Blue? I just don't think the carrot is big enough and a pilot shortage is likely in Oz in the next 10 years.
Tid Edit: A7, you obviously haven't taken time to read Danny's post. If you persist with slagging off at other contributors because you have a different point of view, your next ban will be permanent.
Last edited by Tidbinbilla; 16th Sep 2006 at 10:36. Reason: Abusing fellow posters
4-5 years ago when I was hunting around for an Airline job, I do not recall seeing anything like the number of jobs currently advertised. Just have a look at the job section on the Flight International website. Chimbu - I thought the same regarding jobs in The Australian yesterday. Maybe the tide is turning.
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Future skill shortages (not just pilots)
"An implication of this change in the age structure of the population that will increasingly attract the attention of the business community is the impact on the workforce. According to the Retirement Income Modelling Unit in Treasury (and ABS projections), the working age population currently grows by 180 000 each year. In the decade starting from around 2020 the working age population will only grow by 140 000 over the whole decade. Growth peaked in 1999 and from now on there will be steady decline in the rate of growth (Bacon 2000, p. 9)
as will labour force growth. ABS labour force projections anticipate a decline in growth of the labour force from 1.6 per cent in 1998-99 to 0.4 per cent in 2015-16 (ABS 2000c, p. 3)."
Source.
http://www.facs.gov.au/research/op02/sec3.htm
For the longer term thinkers, the Federal governments own analysis makes sober reading.
as will labour force growth. ABS labour force projections anticipate a decline in growth of the labour force from 1.6 per cent in 1998-99 to 0.4 per cent in 2015-16 (ABS 2000c, p. 3)."
Source.
http://www.facs.gov.au/research/op02/sec3.htm
For the longer term thinkers, the Federal governments own analysis makes sober reading.
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I understand as much as the next person that you don't need straight A's to fly an aircraft, however by maintaining such low educational standards, in comparison to other professions, you really are opening the door up for reduced pay levels. Nurses, teachers, accountants etc have quite consistent and generous packages because they are all required to hold formal and reasonably high education levels before they commence training.
A CPL is only a license to START training for an ATPL. I guess you could call it an educational requirement.
I have met teachers and nurses that would struggle at passing a PPL exam!
ps. Academic qualifications do not dictate your pay scale in any case. I watched a news clip the other day pointing out that the blue collar worker is the new wealthy class. They charge what they want and work when they want. Its all about supply and demand.
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M.25
Higher entry academic levels would certainly reduce the numbers hoping to fly. However the present situation requires only finance to enter the industry.
As to passing the ATPL exams, well they aren't difficult. I have a Year10 education and have not had any difficulty passing so far.Those who do fail generally have to wait a week before being able to sit them again.
As far as instructors are concerned there is a huge surplus of instructors. Most schools are employing instructors on a casual basis.
I saw one school advertise instructor internships, I wonder what the catch is there. Perhaps the lady in the article, Wendy Dowe would like to comment. As far as schools poaching other instructors, well what do you expect, some schools pay them peanuts and threat them like s****t.
As to passing the ATPL exams, well they aren't difficult. I have a Year10 education and have not had any difficulty passing so far.Those who do fail generally have to wait a week before being able to sit them again.
As far as instructors are concerned there is a huge surplus of instructors. Most schools are employing instructors on a casual basis.
I saw one school advertise instructor internships, I wonder what the catch is there. Perhaps the lady in the article, Wendy Dowe would like to comment. As far as schools poaching other instructors, well what do you expect, some schools pay them peanuts and threat them like s****t.
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I agree with Novicef on this. ATPL's were pretty straight forward! A week long course then do an exam, another week course then do another exam and so on. About eight to ten weeks and the whole lot is wrapped up. Even if you fail one you just throw a little bit more money at it and do it a couple of weeks later. One just had to look at some of the numb nuts on my course and see how they would pass with flying colours to illustrate how straight forward these exams really are. I hardly think this sort of academic entry level can be compared with that of doctors, vets or lawyers etc.