I would have thought another issue is one of retaining pilots.
The pilots who don't make the airlines or can't get a turbine seat for whatever reason don't get a decent paycheque and have nothing to stay in the industry for. There's no soft landing for any commercial pilot without an aviation job! It's accepted by any new pilot that low wages are the norm for a few years, but family aspirations put the sword to any long term career in any part of GA while waiting for that turbine/airline job. The cost to remain current without an aviation job is high and the cost to get back into the swing of things after several years away is prohibitively expensive for many. Don't even get me started on the impact of continuous rule changes. There just isn't that many people these days who will make a gamble on initiating or restarting an aviation career when they see the airlines attacking T & C's with such gusto. Until a perceived attractive career path is re-established there won't be the necessary people making the financial and personal committment towards a commercial aviation career.
As for private pilots...there are many advantages to the private pilot route, particularly as disposable income is so high, but between a doomsaying adventurer killing any aspect of fun and prestige, a GA group in the past that has only wanted to use the industry as a pawn for personal egos and conquests by choosing battles at whim with anyone and anything regarded as being in government, and aviation businesses that have bleeded basic business acumen, these advantages have become forgotten and unannounced. The whole reason and joy behind private flying has become lost in an age of cost recovery, user pays, finger pointing and personal point scoring. Is there anyone who still promotes the fun of private flying?
To me, it appears like the whole aviation industry has become one confounded by short term proponents. It might be too late now to impact the initial fallout, but put some measures in place to retain and highlight affordable and rewardable involvement in the industry and the coming fluctuation might resemble a rumble rather than an implosion.
Last edited by Lodown; 16th Sep 2006 at 16:28.