Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

All borders to reopen.

Old 20th Aug 2021, 07:42
  #7641 (permalink)  
short flights long nights
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 3,787
Received 49 Likes on 19 Posts
Originally Posted by KRviator
I'm going to absolutely pi$$ myself when it gets into WA. Even if I'm off work for another 6 months, it'll be worth it...
I hate to point this out, but Delta has already been in WA. A women came back from Sydney in June and later tested positive for Delta. On the one case alone, Perth and Mandurah went into a hard and fast lockdown for 4 days.. and the outbreak was controlled.
SOPS is online now  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 08:23
  #7642 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Perth, WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Age: 71
Posts: 875
Likes: 0
Received 4 Likes on 2 Posts
Originally Posted by SOPS
West Australians have until midnight Wednesday to get home. After that, itís too late. And Iím guessing it will be until a least the end of the year, but I hope Iím wrong.
The warning has been in the winds for several days now.
There are no surprises here.

It'll be pretty hard for someone to claim that they "got caught"
WingNut60 is online now  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 09:00
  #7643 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Most locked down city in the world
Posts: 546
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by WingNut60
The warning has been in the winds for several days now.
There are no surprises here.

It'll be pretty hard for someone to claim that they "got caught"
Meanwhile back in Vic, Dan was more angry ( like not happy Jan add) saying "the government done our bit if numbers rise it is entirely your fault. We will lockdown harder." I didn't think we could lockdown any harder. I heard on 3aw take off one more hour off exercise, extend curfew 8pm-6am, kill the gardeners and take away. "On a knife edge".
Turnleft080 is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 09:43
  #7644 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Coal Face
Posts: 1,138
Received 111 Likes on 53 Posts
Originally Posted by KRviator
I'm going to absolutely pi$$ myself when it gets into WA. Even if I'm off work for another 6 months, it'll be worth it...
Yes champ. That's the attitude to have.
Chronic Snoozer is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 09:43
  #7645 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 971
Received 75 Likes on 39 Posts
Originally Posted by Turnleft080
I have been trying to find info (maybe someone can) on the sudden disappearance of the Wuhan, Alpha, Beta, Gamma variants. On most graphs they are down to < 2%. Vaccines pretty march started at the beginning of the year so it wasn't the vaccines that kicked them out. Did the Delta variant just push them aside. ...
It's straightforward evolution, survival of the fittest, where fitness is measured in infectiousness.

The coronavirus has the potential to throw up a mutation every time it infects a cell and produces more of itself (ie. each 'generation'). Some of the mutations yield nothing in particular but every once in a while a mutation that changes the spike protein will make that variant more infectious. If that new variant is significantly more infectious and occurs in a relatively uninfected population, it's off to the races. Typically the more infectious variant outperforms its forebear and becomes the new dominant strain, initially in that population. The wonder of international air travel tends to be what connects a new variant to broader populations.

Thus when the 'original' Wuhan reached the UK that relatively uninfected population become the feedstock for the alpha-variant, about 50 percent more contagious than the original. In South Africa the original variant threw up the beta-variant, again about 50 percent more contagious than the original. Gamma probably first developed in South America but manifested itself in Japan. Delta appears to be one of the first variants on a variant, in that it almost certainly mutated from a non-original strain, likely alpha-variant, in the Indian population. It is estimated to be 60 percent more infectious than alpha and thus quickly dominated the previous dominant variant.

There's also been a raft of other variants - epsilon, zeta, eta, theta, etc - recorded that have bobbed in a specific sub-populations but that have either been not significantly more infectious than their forbear or emerged too late such that they couldn't achieve dominance.
MickG0105 is online now  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 09:47
  #7646 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Oz
Posts: 1,836
Received 245 Likes on 103 Posts
Melbourne is about to explode and it appears a Kiwi like lockdown is being announced in the morning, for the whole state.


PoppaJo is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 10:28
  #7647 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Most locked down city in the world
Posts: 546
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by MickG0105
It's straightforward evolution, survival of the fittest, where fitness is measured in infectiousness.

The coronavirus has the potential to throw up a mutation every time it infects a cell and produces more of itself (ie. each 'generation'). Some of the mutations yield nothing in particular but every once in a while a mutation that changes the spike protein will make that variant more infectious. If that new variant is significantly more infectious and occurs in a relatively uninfected population, it's off to the races. Typically the more infectious variant outperforms its forebear and becomes the new dominant strain, initially in that population. The wonder of international air travel tends to be what connects a new variant to broader populations.

Thus when the 'original' Wuhan reached the UK that relatively uninfected population become the feedstock for the alpha-variant, about 50 percent more contagious than the original. In South Africa the original variant threw up the beta-variant, again about 50 percent more contagious than the original. Gamma probably first developed in South America but manifested itself in Japan. Delta appears to be one of the first variants on a variant, in that it almost certainly mutated from a non-original strain, likely alpha-variant, in the Indian population. It is estimated to be 60 percent more infectious than alpha and thus quickly dominated the previous dominant variant.

There's also been a raft of other variants - epsilon, zeta, eta, theta, etc - recorded that have bobbed in a specific sub-populations but that have either been not significantly more infectious than their forbear or emerged too late such that they couldn't achieve dominance.
Thanks for that MickG0105. Makes you wonder, the longer you lockdown the more time their is to generate a new variant.
Turnleft080 is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 10:50
  #7648 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Al's Diner
Age: 63
Posts: 197
Likes: 0
Received 8 Likes on 2 Posts
What happens when we get to the end of the Greek alphabet for variants? Is that when this ends or do we move onto Roman numerals?
Potsie Weber is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 10:59
  #7649 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 971
Received 75 Likes on 39 Posts
Originally Posted by Turnleft080
Thanks for that MickG0105. Makes you wonder, the longer you lockdown the more time their is to generate a new variant.
You're welcome.

And yes and no on the latter. Each infected person is an incubator for a potential new variant. If you keep the number of infected down, you reduce the likelihood of a new, significantly more infectious variant emerging. Further, if you have measures in place to limit spread you can prevent a new variant from gaining a foothold. That's why the way out of this is likely to be multifaceted - at the very least a combination of vaccination and some infection control measures.
MickG0105 is online now  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 11:00
  #7650 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
Posts: 5,007
Received 214 Likes on 120 Posts
That's why the Omega strain is going to be 'interesting'. We need to hope against hope that the 'light at the end of the tunnel' isn't the glow of the Omega or some other strain that's mutated to luminescence.
Lead Balloon is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 11:30
  #7651 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: New Zealand
Age: 70
Posts: 1,475
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Iím still curious as to one thing - if Ďtechnicallyí they donít know/canít prove how or what caused the virus, or what causes it to mutate, then how can the Government actually know what the real solution for eradicating it is? Are lockdowns, masks and the current vaccines really going to work long term? Where does root cause come into this - itís pretty difficult to resolve this pandemic if you donít even know what the root cause is in the first place? For Melbourne to go into lockdown 6 times it shows that the current measures are not effective because the virus does keep coming back and spreading.

TBH, I donít need a lecture in the theories of mask wearing and lockdowns to minimise the spread, I get it. Iím looking at the prospect of this - if you donít know what causes the problem how can you truly fix it? Because with these variants it looks like we could be doing this tango for years, and that is not only unsustainable, it is not addressing the root cause, and without a root cause how can they create a workable Ďfixí?




Paragraph377 is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 11:31
  #7652 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Oz
Posts: 1,836
Received 245 Likes on 103 Posts
I know the rest of the year is going to be tough down south but sweet Jesus.


PoppaJo is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 12:01
  #7653 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: East of Westralia
Posts: 638
Received 59 Likes on 16 Posts
Originally Posted by Paragraph377
Iím still curious as to one thing - if Ďtechnicallyí they donít know/canít prove how or what caused the virus, or what causes it to mutate, then how can the Government actually know what the real solution for eradicating it is? Are lockdowns, masks and the current vaccines really going to work long term? Where does root cause come into this - itís pretty difficult to resolve this pandemic if you donít even know what the root cause is in the first place? For Melbourne to go into lockdown 6 times it shows that the current measures are not effective because the virus does keep coming back and spreading.

TBH, I donít need a lecture in the theories of mask wearing and lockdowns to minimise the spread, I get it. Iím looking at the prospect of this - if you donít know what causes the problem how can you truly fix it? Because with these variants it looks like we could be doing this tango for years, and that is not only unsustainable, it is not addressing the root cause, and without a root cause how can they create a workable Ďfixí?
We have no ďfixĒ or cure for the flu, but we have learned to live with it. CV and whatever else comes next will eventually be the same.
ScepticalOptomist is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 12:17
  #7654 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 971
Received 75 Likes on 39 Posts
Originally Posted by Paragraph377
I’m still curious as to one thing - if ‘technically’ they don’t know/can’t prove how or what caused the virus, or what causes it to mutate ...
The mechanism by which coronaviruses replicate and mutate is very well understood - the RNA replication process that occurs after a coronavirus infects a cell is markedly less accurate than DNA replication. Each time a replication occurs the RNA creates a protein sequence and that protein sequence is then used to create a new strand of RNA - the protein sequence is a bit like a negative in photography or a mould in casting. Because of the inherent weakness in RNA replication there is a very small chance that the protein sequence could change slightly so you end up with a very, very slightly flawed negative or mould. Those changes result in the next generation of RNA that is printed/cast being changed every so slightly. When you have many, many replications occurring many, many times as you would get in a large infected population, basic probability favors that the virus will adjust. It is straightforward evolution but on a very, very condensed timeline because of a) the relatively very short inter-generarional cycle time and b) the relatively poor accuracy of the replication process. Most of the time the small 'misprints' or 'miscasts' (mutations) that arise have no effect whatsoever on how the coronavirus interacts with its target hosts but every once in a while they do.

And you don't need to know how or what "caused" the original coronavirus to emerge, once you have mapped it genetically then you're on your way to dealing with it.

Last edited by MickG0105; 20th Aug 2021 at 12:20. Reason: Tidy up
MickG0105 is online now  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 12:18
  #7655 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Coal Face
Posts: 1,138
Received 111 Likes on 53 Posts
Originally Posted by PoppaJo
I know the rest of the year is going to be tough down south but sweet Jesus.


https://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_kenn...63173716987909
How responsible, from a former politician. How many likes is he after?
Chronic Snoozer is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 12:21
  #7656 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Coal Face
Posts: 1,138
Received 111 Likes on 53 Posts
Originally Posted by MickG0105
The mechanism by which coronaviruses replicate and mutate is very well understood - the RNA replication process that occurs after a coronavirus infects a cell is markedly less accurate than DNA replication. Each time a replication occurs the RNA creates a protein sequence and that protein sequence is then used to create a new strand of RNA - the protein sequence is a bit like a negative in photography or a mould in casting. Because of the inherent weakness in RNA replication there is a very small chance that the protein sequence could change slightly so you end up with a very, very slightly flawed negative or mould. Those changes result in the resulting next generation of RNA changing every so slightly. When you have many, many replications occurring many, many times as you would get in a large infected population, basic probability favors that the virus will adjust. It is straightforward evolution but on a very, very condensed timeline because of a) the relatively very short inter-generarional cycle time and b) the relatively poor accuracy of the replication process. Most of the time the small 'misprints' or 'miscasts' (mutations) that arise have no effect whatsoever on how the coronavirus interacts with its target hosts but every once in a while they do.

And you don't need to know how or what "caused" the original coronavirus to emerge, once you have mapped it genetically then you're on your way to dealing with it.
So stopping the spread is also the key to stopping mutations which spread faster, so stopping the spread is also key to stopping mutations which spread faster, so..................?
Chronic Snoozer is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 12:27
  #7657 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: The World
Posts: 2,136
Received 196 Likes on 106 Posts
Originally Posted by PoppaJo
I know the rest of the year is going to be tough down south but sweet Jesus.


https://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_kenn...63173716987909
Government members denying this tonight. It doesnít seem logical considering cases this time last year were in the hundreds and the lockdown ended in October, and no one has ever extended a lockdown by 4 months.

I think itís just Kennett suffering relevancy deprivation syndrome, trying to attract clicks for his ďDictator Dan must go!Ē column in the Herald Sun today, or a distraction from his stuff ups at the Hawks.

dr dre is online now  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 12:29
  #7658 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 971
Received 75 Likes on 39 Posts
Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer
So stopping the spread is also the key to stopping mutations which spread faster, so stopping the spread is also key to stopping mutations which spread faster, so..................?
Yes, yes and, in anticipation, yes. It's worth noting that after 18 months and some what? 200 million cases globally (likely many more than that) there have thus far really only been three or four variants of significant concern. That said, best not to tempt fate if you can avoid it.
MickG0105 is online now  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 12:34
  #7659 (permalink)  
601
 
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: Brisbane, Qld, Australia
Age: 77
Posts: 1,427
Received 11 Likes on 8 Posts
For Melbourne to go into lockdown 6 times it shows that the current measures are not effective because the virus does keep coming back and spreading.
We did it last year, but we were dealing with a less infectious variant. .
The measures most likely would be effective against this latest variant if EVERYONE took personal responsibility to stop the spread.
601 is offline  
Old 20th Aug 2021, 13:26
  #7660 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Most locked down city in the world
Posts: 546
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by 601
We did it last year, but we were dealing with a less infectious variant. .
The measures most likely would be effective against this latest variant if EVERYONE took personal responsibility to stop the spread.
Lockdowns are like Chemo. Yes, you may kill the virus and you kill everything else with it. The longer the lockdown the longer it suppress your brain never mined the virus. Now calling it covid fatigue. Net result, all this crap lowers your immune system emotionally mentally and physically. Great, just what you want in a pandemic.
Turnleft080 is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information

Copyright © 2023 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.