All borders to reopen.

[Chronic Snoozer]

Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc

SHVC

Why on earth would you say that? Why would the unvaccinated have to stay home locked away? If an unvaccinated person wants to go out into the community, he/she has the right to so, and uses his/her own risk management/protection protocols.

Because we don't want to watch hospital bed confessions from you when you feel it's important that others learn from your experience, that you 'regret' not getting vaccinated and making all those anti-vaccination posts. It's like running into a burning building without suitable firefighting PPE and then complaining of 3rd degree burns.

[Foxxster]

Originally Posted by Xeptu

My best guess! Most of us expect to be vaccinated and at least 80% of us in the first quarter of 2022, that's both doses and time to be deemed effectively protected. I would expect masks and whatever safety procedures to be in place by then. I would expect to see domestic travel to rise progressively to around 60% of precovid capacity and International up to around 40% by end 2023. All that assuming there is no breakout strain that renders the vaccine ineffective and the long term implications of the virus do not effect life expectancy, reproduction or any significant disability. Should any of those things become apparent, vaccinated or not, then I would expect the borders to remain restricted both internally and externally in some significant way.

I will certainly not be flying anywhere, internationally or domestically while the threat of a lockdown is in place. A lockdown that can take place at any time and go on for an indefinite period. Same for border closures. I will also not be booking any theatre or other tickets or be booking any hotels within a driving distance. And I suspect many will be in the same mindset.

so good luck with your 60% prediction.

[Xeptu]

Originally Posted by Lead Balloon

Yaaabut...

When the unvaccinated end up clogging up all the nation's ICUs, despite the 'risk management/protection protocols' used by the unvaccinated while roaming free, the outcome is that there's no room left for the vaccinated when they have their heart attacks, serious accidents and other medical crises.

About the ICU. I can only make comment for what I know within my own state via those I know in that arena. The covid ICU zone is empty at the this time and is a separated facility from the primary ICU ward. It can cope with about 20 ventilated Covid patients comfortably and can be expanded to 50. In the event a major breakout occurs a separate inflatable facility is erected, usually in a carpark, oval, warehouse or stadium. These are normally managed by the military. All covid patients are then redirected to that facility and the major hospitals provide technical staff. Our state has 3 of them and can accomadate about 200 each. We don't have sufficient staff to care for that many, we would need both military and the other states to assist in the same way we did for Victoria.
On that note, NSW doesn't appear to have learned any of the lessons in VIC, including PPE as observed in the news. The common quote is " what on earth have they been doing in the last 12 months, have they learned nothing"

[Paragraph377]

Originally Posted by Lead Balloon

Yaaabut...

When the unvaccinated end up clogging up all the nation's ICUs, despite the 'risk management/protection protocols' used by the unvaccinated while roaming free, the outcome is that there's no room left for the vaccinated when they have their heart attacks, serious accidents and other medical crises.

But but our hospital systems can cope with a huge outbreak because all state governments have planned for such an emergency, have enough beds in their hospitals to cover such an emergency and have enough medical staff on the payroll to adequately handle such an emergency. It has to be true because from their protected and overstaffed premium office suites our PM and Premiers have told us so. They really have their finger on the pulse so to speak.

[Xeptu]

Originally Posted by Foxxster

I will certainly not be flying anywhere, internationally or domestically while the threat of a lockdown is in place. A lockdown that can take place at any time and go on for an indefinite period. Same for border closures. I will also not be booking any theatre or other tickets or be booking any hotels within a driving distance. And I suspect many will be in the same mindset.

so good luck with your 60% prediction.

It's an expectation, not a prediction and it has caveats, but like you I'm not all that confident that those caveats won't come into effect.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer

Because we don't want to watch hospital bed confessions from you when you feel it's important that others learn from your experience, that you 'regret' not getting vaccinated and making all those anti-vaccination posts. It's like running into a burning building without suitable firefighting PPE and then complaining of 3rd degree burns.

Chronic Snoozer - TSK TSK TSK - I have NEVER made a single anti Vaccination post. I am, in fact, vaccinated, and currently still flying. I am defending the right of people to CHOOSE. The reality is, the vaccine was developed under emergency provisions and the long time side effects have not been tested. I respect people's choice to take it or not. Delta is more infectious and it will infect vaccinated people as well. I also find it pretty immoral to suggest that medical assistance should be provided in preference for vaccinated people. We know that smoking causes lung cancer- I guess if there is only 1 ventilator avail - you would say that the non smoker should get it. People here are losing the plot.

[Lead Balloon]

Originally Posted by Paragraph377

But but our hospital systems can cope with a huge outbreak because all state governments have planned for such an emergency, have enough beds in their hospitals to cover such an emergency and have enough medical staff on the payroll to adequately handle such an emergency. It has to be true because from their protected and overstaffed premium office suites our PM and Premiers have told us so. They really have their finger on the pulse so to speak.

Yep, and Scotty's doubled the capacity of proper quarantine facilities and adjacent medical facilities, to take the pressure off the general hospitals.

And all those new doctors and ICU nurses will be cascading out of our local training institutions, soon.

[43Inches]

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/he...latest-release (Note- Deaths due to influenza)

I never quite know why they group influenza and pneumonia together. One is a condition and one is a cause. I think the pneumonia from causes other than flu is about 75% of those cases, actual flu as an underlying cause is the much smaller of the two. Then people go on and quote that group as flu deaths when they are not.

[De_flieger]

Originally Posted by Blackout

Regarding hospital systems being over run:

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...16-p57se1.html

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/he...latest-release (Note- Deaths due to influenza)

https://covidlive.com.au/report/hospitalised (Note- Total Hospitalised)

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/...lu-flucurr.htm (Note- Hospital Admissions)

I'm not quite sure what you are trying to show there. Looking at those statistics, with the fairly harsh restrictions and lockdowns that are presently in place, doing substantial economic damage, there is minimal covid transmission in most states, and likewise minimal or zero hospitalisations in those states. Suggesting that purely from a health perspective solely in terms of preventing covid (setting aside the mental health issues and economic costs, which do need to be taken into account in the broader scheme of things) the restrictions and lockdowns are effective. In the states with more covid cases - but still a relatively small proportion of the population - there are more people hospitalised. That's not exactly groundbreaking news.

What do you think of places like Florida, where there are far fewer restrictions and there is much more widespread transmission, measured in the thousands to tens of thousands of cases per day, and at the most recent figures I've seen, approximately 16,000 people hospitalised out of a population roughly 2/3rds that of Australia? Their ICU's are at approx 90% capacity, with roughly 50% of those beds taken up by covid patients, and the capacity is limited by the number of healthcare workers available, not by the number of physical beds or ventilators or equipment present, so it's not a quick process to easily ramp up to deal with large numbers of new patients over any length of time.

[43Inches]

Their ICU's are at approx 90% capacity, with roughly 50% of those beds taken up by covid patients, and the capacity is limited by the number of healthcare workers available, not by the number of physical beds or ventilators or equipment present, so it's not a quick process to easily ramp up to deal with large numbers of new patients over any length of time.

A typical Thursday through to Sunday in a city hospital in Australia pre-covid and the ER and ICU would be on bypass due to case numbers. Hospitals are good here, but they only offer just enough for whats budgeted, covid has opened more beds, but staff wise they can't fill them. I know two local hospitals that have whole wings of beds empty with no staff to service them.

[43Inches]

This is a better site for data on influenza. It has actual numbers relating to the flu, rather than combining pneumonia with it.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/...rr.htm#current

Few reasons flu is down during our covid outbreak, is same way we have kept covid down. Most of our flu comes in from overseas. Then add lockdowns, etc.

[Paragraph377]

Originally Posted by Lead Balloon

Yep, and Scotty's doubled the capacity of proper quarantine facilities and adjacent medical facilities, to take the pressure off the general hospitals.

And all those new doctors and ICU nurses will be cascading out of our local training institutions, soon.

Most reassuring, thank you. I hope our new medico’s are also trained in how to keep up with governments who are like kangaroos on ICE bouncing all over the top paddock. You can always trust a bureaucracy to be 50 paces behind everybody else.

[De_flieger]

Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc

SHVC

Why on earth would you say that? Why would the unvaccinated have to stay home locked away? If an unvaccinated person wants to go out into the community, he/she has the right to so, and uses his/her own risk management/protection protocols.

If one person alone makes that decision, it probably won't make any real difference. If any significant number of people all make that same decision, there will be a reservoir of covid circulating among that group being transmitted between themselves and others, mutating as viruses do, into potentially more infectious or harmful forms that are more dangerous or transmissible to the vaccinated - as has already happened with the different variants of covid mutating in India, South America and other places. That puts at risk the vaccinated, the medically unable to be vaccinated or frail, and the unvaccinated alike. So their individual choices impact the broader community. Plenty of people have felt that their own risk management/protection protocols were sufficient, and still died on a ventilator.

[43Inches]

For those averse to reading the flu document in 2019 there were 3000 odd hospitalisations due to flu only 246 were admitted to ICU. During the season 812 were listed as having flu symptomology when they died, ie died "with flu". Just under 300,000 were laboratory tested positive for flu that season, you could safely assume 5-10 times more than that got the sniffles from flu that year.

I don't have the time to fully research it but 2020, 28,000 covid cases laboratory confirmed, with seroprevalence putting actual numbers around 3 x that, so around 90,000 cases and 909 deaths. I'm pretty sure hospitalisations and ICU admittance was way higher proportion than the flu.

The difference mainly is that 2019 the flu did what it wanted, in 2020 Covid was mostly controlled by isolation and lockdown. I assume given the flu distribution you would probably see 300,000 symptomatic cases of covid with unrestricted freedom and no vacination in the same year if it was let loose.

[Chris2303]

One community case in Auckland this afternoon

[josephfeatherweight]

Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc

I am defending the right of people to CHOOSE. The reality is, the vaccine was developed under emergency provisions and the long time side effects have not been tested. I respect people's choice to take it or not. Delta is more infectious and it will infect vaccinated people as well. I also find it pretty immoral to suggest that medical assistance should be provided in preference for vaccinated people. We know that smoking causes lung cancer- I guess if there is only 1 ventilator avail - you would say that the non smoker should get it. People here are losing the plot.

I get what you're saying and I'm glad to hear you have made the right choice to get vaccinated. But the time will come when the Australian population has ALL had a really good opportunity to be vaccinated and where my patience will have been exhausted making "allowances" for other people's (IMHO) poor choice. Perhaps when I lose my job. Note, we're not at that point yet, because the vaccine roll-out has been an unmitigated disaster.
If I get vaccinated, I protect the non-vaccinated by reducing the chance of transmission, should I become infected by COVID. By an individual "choosing" to not get vaccinated, they put me at risk. I don't think that's ok.
A summarised/altered quote (wrongly attributed to the French President) goes something like this:
"I no longer have any intention of sacrificing my life, my time, my freedom and the adolescence of my children, as well as their right to study properly, for those who refuse to be vaccinated. This time you stay at home, not us."
I would have no problem prioritising ICU beds for vaccinated citizens (suffering from whatever illness they may have) over non vaccinated citizens (due choice, not medical impediment) afflicted by COVID - they've made their choice.

[43Inches]

You didnt think 4124 cases that died due to Influenza / Pneumonia in 2019 was a cause for concern. Is that why you didnt advocate for Hard Border closures, Self Isolation and Vaccine Passports back then?

As I posted above only just under 900 died with flu in that season, that is not even from flu. Pneumonia is a pretty common cause of death for old aged, also being one of the ways covid kills you.

To put in perspective of 300,000 actual diagnosed flu cases only 246 made it to ICU. So the majority (of those that died) were not admitted to hospital with severe flu symptoms like Covid does to you. The rest of the 900 were most likely old aged or compromised and just had flu at the time of death. The difference with Covid is that last year when listed "died with covid" on your death cert Covid was the primary cause in 75% of cases, vs flu which would only account for 100 or so out of that 900 or around 10%. This year I would like to see the stats on "died due to covid" vs "died with covid" as I think most of the vaccine related will be a case of "died with" not "from".

[Chronic Snoozer]

Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc

Chronic Snoozer - TSK TSK TSK - I have NEVER made a single anti Vaccination post. I am, in fact, vaccinated, and currently still flying. I am defending the right of people to CHOOSE. The reality is, the vaccine was developed under emergency provisions and the long time side effects have not been tested. I respect people's choice to take it or not. Delta is more infectious and it will infect vaccinated people as well. I also find it pretty immoral to suggest that medical assistance should be provided in preference for vaccinated people. We know that smoking causes lung cancer- I guess if there is only 1 ventilator avail - you would say that the non smoker should get it. People here are losing the plot.

Because we don't want to watch hospital bed confessions from the unvaccinated when they feel it's important that others learn from their experience, that they 'regret' not getting vaccinated and making all those anti-vaccination posts. It's like running into a burning building without suitable firefighting PPE and then complaining of 3rd degree burns.

Happy?

[Lead Balloon]

I would have no problem prioritising ICU beds for vaccinated citizens (suffering from whatever illness they may have) over non vaccinated citizens (due choice, not medical impediment) afflicted by COVID - they've made their choice.

And what if the non-vaccinated citizen does not have his or her 'Vaccination Passport' or Medicare Card in the pocket of their trackpants when run over at a pedestrian crossing and taken by ambulance, unconscious and critically injured, to an ICU?

If you can quote me an ICU doctor or nurse who's explained how they can practically work out who is voluntarily unvaccinated when presenting to an ICU, please post the link.

And what of children who've just complied with whatever their parents have decided about vaccination?

[ruprecht]

Originally Posted by Lead Balloon

And what if the non-vaccinated citizen does not have his or her 'Vaccination Passport' or Medicare Card in the pocket of their trackpants when run over at a pedestrian crossing and taken by ambulance, unconscious and critically injured, to an ICU?

If you can quote me an ICU doctor or nurse who's explained how they can practically work out who is voluntarily unvaccinated when presenting to an ICU, please post the link.

And what of children who've just complied with whatever their parents have decided about vaccination?

Key phrase: “afflicted by COVID”.