All borders to reopen.
Join Date: May 2020
Location: Sydney
Posts: 24
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I really have to laugh at you two, it's definitely a dynamic duo.
One is arguing the PCR is too sensitive, then lauds when the other provides a big graph using that PCR data to prove a point....Gold Standard
I don't think they have even read each others posts.
Keep going my court jesters,
I do find you both quaint and mildly amusing.
One is arguing the PCR is too sensitive, then lauds when the other provides a big graph using that PCR data to prove a point....Gold Standard
I don't think they have even read each others posts.
Keep going my court jesters,
I do find you both quaint and mildly amusing.
By the way I found your tutorial on the workings of mRNA vaccines most entertaining. Had me in stitches.
Oh I forgot! You’ve spent time with doctors.
Is that the best you can come up with 43Inches?
By the way I found your tutorial on the workings of mRNA vaccines most entertaining. Had me in stitches.
Oh I forgot! You’ve spent time with doctors.
By the way I found your tutorial on the workings of mRNA vaccines most entertaining. Had me in stitches.
Oh I forgot! You’ve spent time with doctors.
Join Date: May 2020
Location: Sydney
Posts: 24
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I mean what is your overall purpose here?
My interest is to sway people to get out and vaccinate, that is all, then I can go back to work and leave you to your misguided antics.
Are you an Anti-vaxxer is that the point?
I could go to the trouble of explaining why and how your data yet again is flawed, but I'm pretty sure all and sundry are aware of that by now, so I'll leave it short.
My interest is to sway people to get out and vaccinate, that is all, then I can go back to work and leave you to your misguided antics.
Are you an Anti-vaxxer is that the point?
I could go to the trouble of explaining why and how your data yet again is flawed, but I'm pretty sure all and sundry are aware of that by now, so I'll leave it short.
I’ve seen countless examples of your logic so don’t waste your time.
You bore me to tears mate. Honestly.
You bore me to tears mate. Honestly.
Join Date: May 2020
Location: Sydney
Posts: 24
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Funny that! I read somewhere that a rare side effect of Covid vaccination is Delusions of Granduer. You sure you’re feeling ok?
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Somewhere on the Australian Coast
Posts: 1,060
Likes: 0
Received 50 Likes
on
16 Posts
If the egotists could possibly stop bickering for a minute.
If this is true, the four phase plan is already dead and this industry is royally f&*ked, so are tourism operators across the country. It's hard not to despair about the future when WA (and VIC today) are stating that NSW isn't complying with Phase A. That provides those states with the wriggle room necessary to say that they won't comply with Phase B, C and D.
If borders are going to stay closed at 80% vaccination in pursuit of a COVID-zero strategy we might as well all pack up now and sell the aeroplanes for coke cans because that's all they're useful for. Morrison has no authority or power. His political capital is at an all time low and the premiers are demanding COVID-zero as the policy going forward. Can anyone else see a way out of this that ends well for aviation, because I'm really struggling to at the moment?
If borders are going to stay closed at 80% vaccination in pursuit of a COVID-zero strategy we might as well all pack up now and sell the aeroplanes for coke cans because that's all they're useful for. Morrison has no authority or power. His political capital is at an all time low and the premiers are demanding COVID-zero as the policy going forward. Can anyone else see a way out of this that ends well for aviation, because I'm really struggling to at the moment?
Funny that! I read somewhere that a rare side effect of Covid vaccination is Delusions of Granduer. You sure you’re feeling ok?
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: New Zealand
Age: 71
Posts: 1,475
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
We don't have a damn choice, not FIFO crew and sure as hell not pilots (Rex & QLink Driver's excepted). I didn't want to get the vaccination, but from where I sit, essentially jobless and unemployed, what is the alternative? Sit here hoping the Premier's will cave in and say "You know what, stuff it, let's go!" We all know that won't happen...
McGowan has already all but admitted he won't reopen the border no matter what the vaccination rate is nationwide, so, short of assassinating 7 Premiers (well, 6, I'll give the NT Chief Minister a pass, they've been fairly level-headed throughout), or staging a military coup, I don't see any alternative.
That being said, I do think this thing will evolve, hopefully to something like the flu, with annual vaccines, however, there's also a distinct possibility of it going the other way. My only hope in that case, is it strikes Parliament House first....
We don't have a damn choice, not FIFO crew and sure as hell not pilots (Rex & QLink Driver's excepted). I didn't want to get the vaccination, but from where I sit, essentially jobless and unemployed, what is the alternative? Sit here hoping the Premier's will cave in and say "You know what, stuff it, let's go!" We all know that won't happen...
Whatever your thoughts on pro/not vax. The nation will burst open in the coming months once those targets are met. The faster we get there the less it will send whats left of aviation and tourism broke.
Add to that as a pilot/airline worker you probably won't have a choice anyway, so better to just get it done.
vaccination is no guarantee of a return to normal. It’s not a guarantee that other COVID variations won’t occur, therefor no guarantee that lockdowns will end, no guarantee that your current vaccination will remain effective and no guarantee that travel will return to normal and you get to go back to work flying
There is also a probability that another virus, not a mutation of COVID19, will make itself known in the medium term
Blackout don’t waste your time with the likes of 43Inches.
If you want to get a handle of the real nature of this Covid problem then have a look at this real world data
All persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics.
As you can see the vaccines are having an effect on case numbers and fatality rates. But the intent of my post is to try and extrapolate the real nature of the Covid problem.
Two cohorts of 596 618 people each followed out to 42 days.
Infections in Unvaccinated 29365 Fatalities 112 .....IFR 0.38%
Infections in vaccinated 22943 Fatalities 32 ...........IFR 0.14%
Put in another way recovery rate in Unvaccinated was 99.62% and in Vaccinated was 99.86%
These IFR are similar to Stanford University modelling. The difference is the above data is Real World.
If you want to get a handle of the real nature of this Covid problem then have a look at this real world data
All persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics.As you can see the vaccines are having an effect on case numbers and fatality rates. But the intent of my post is to try and extrapolate the real nature of the Covid problem.
Two cohorts of 596 618 people each followed out to 42 days.
Infections in Unvaccinated 29365 Fatalities 112 .....IFR 0.38%
Infections in vaccinated 22943 Fatalities 32 ...........IFR 0.14%
Put in another way recovery rate in Unvaccinated was 99.62% and in Vaccinated was 99.86%
These IFR are similar to Stanford University modelling. The difference is the above data is Real World.
BACKGROUND
As mass vaccination campaigns against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) commence worldwide, vaccine effectiveness needs to be assessed for a range of outcomes across diverse populations in a noncontrolled setting. In this study, data from Israel’s largest health care organization were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine.METHODS
All persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. Study outcomes included documented infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), symptomatic Covid-19, Covid-19–related hospitalization, severe illness, and death. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for each outcome as one minus the risk ratio, using the Kaplan–Meier estimator.RESULTS
Each study group included 596,618 persons. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose. Estimated effectiveness in specific subpopulations assessed for documented infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was consistent across age groups, with potentially slightly lower effectiveness in persons with multiple coexisting conditions.CONCLUSIONS
This study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting suggests that the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective for a wide range of Covid-19–related outcomes, a finding consistent with that of the randomized trial.The authors of that study (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%.
The authors of that study (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%.
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: New Zealand
Age: 71
Posts: 1,475
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
- 65% vaccination and the borders will open. Now they are saying 70-80%.
- I recall the Governments saying that once 80% is achieved then the borders will open. Now some of them are saying it is not a guarantee.
- I recall CMO’s saying school aged students are not a risk and are exempt from vaccines. Yet most of the time schools have stayed closed for long periods and now they are talking about younger ones getting vaccinated.
- I recall the government saying that if you are immunised you will basically be able to move about freely. Nope, that hasn’t happened. In fact now they are saying that regardless of your vaccine status they may and will continue to close borders and enact lockdowns.
You see, the narrative changes constantly depending on what internal polling the political parties are doing, and what those results are. These muppets have no idea how to handle this pandemic. And they cannot guarantee all those ‘wonderful freedoms’ even if everyone is vaccinated. They are full of shit and jumping around from an hour to hour.
43mm, we are all over this COVID shit. All of us. I hope you are right and that when we hit 80% they open the floodgates and let us go about our business. In fact if they do, and you are correct, I will be the first to shout you 3 beers. I am a man of my word. But seeing is believing, and our incompetent, belligerent, gutless Governments are yet to handle any crisis effectively and in a concise and praiseworthy manner.
Join Date: May 2020
Location: Sydney
Posts: 24
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Here's the abstract for the paper the you've taken that graphic from.
BNT162b2 is BioNTech Pfizer.
The authors of that study (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%.
BNT162b2 is BioNTech Pfizer.
The authors of that study (BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting, Dagan et al) found vaccine effectiveness at the important efficacy endpoints of preventing hospitalisation and severe illness 7 or more days after the second dose were 87% for hospitalization, and 92% for severe disease. The estimated effectiveness in preventing death after the first dose was 72%.
The data is perfect for an extrapolation of the true nature of the problem as it yields an IFR figure of 0.38%. The effect of vaccine is to reduce the IFR down to 0.14%.
Yes vaccines work.
But in my view we need to stop this infatuation with case numbers as all we are seeing there is the top of the pyramid. The extrapolations I’ve made from real data potentially show the whole pyramid. Respectfully, the damage we are causing with lockdowns is not commensurate with the real problem.
43mm, we are all over this COVID shit. All of us. I hope you are right and that when we hit 80% they open the floodgates and let us go about our business. In fact if they do, and you are correct, I will be the first to shout you 3 beers. I am a man of my word. But seeing is believing, and our incompetent, belligerent, gutless Governments are yet to handle any crisis effectively and in a concise and praiseworthy manner.
Oh and if anyone tries to launch another wave of whatever by summer, I'm creating a time machine and cleaning up some messes with extreme force.
