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Old 15th Aug 2021, 00:50
  #7321 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SHVC
As long as it’s not an investment property you can go! At the coffee shop now, whilst take away is the order there is about 30 odd standing around drinking their coffee in front of the cafe. Good work Gladys. A lockdown should be just that, only supermarkets, Medical practice, chemist and fuel stations. The rest should be closed.
People standing around drinking coffee in front of the cafe is hardly Gladys' fault. Get your coffee and go, practice social distancing while in the line. What is so hard about that? Does the government need to hold everybody's hand? We need to quit blaming the government for practically everything and follow the advice. It appears we are in the situation we're in not because of lack of leadership but good old Aussie larrikinism taken too far.

Pre-vaccine childhood

"Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it." Churchill

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Old 15th Aug 2021, 01:02
  #7322 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SHVC
McGowen on Sky News AM agenda today has said despite the National Cabinet agreement promising the country would open up once 80 per cent of residents had been vaccinated, he would retain a zero COVID policy and not tolerate any COVID cases or deaths in his state. “His state” he owns you all he thinks.
Here's the story...
The WA Premier told Sky News that, despite the National Cabinet agreement promising the country would open up once 80 per cent of residents had been vaccinated, he would retain a zero COVID policy and not tolerate any COVID cases or deaths in his state."We retain the right to put in place border [restrictions], that's understood, but some of the measures we put in place might ease, once we reach that level of vaccination. "I'm looking forward to getting over 80 per cent, apparently no country in the world has got there yet."
No wonder theyre stuffed over there. "No one has got to 80%" yet...Iceland is at 86.3% fully vaccinated...
Asked if he would retain a hard border to New South Wales for an indeterminate period if that state never got to zero COVID cases, Mr McGowan said: "We retain that right, obviously I'd prefer not to".

"My own mother and father and my brother live in NSW and personally I'd love to be able to see them and I know there's many thousands of people in that position... and other people want to go to NSW on holidays or business or whatever it might be... but the best answer I can give to that is for the foreseeable future, probably until the end of the year, we'll have to have a strong border in place with NSW because we can't run the risk of it infiltrating into Western Australia.

"... When they get down to zero or minimal spread, then we can look forward to opening the border."

On the concept of zero COVID and whether it would be sustainable for years into the future, Mr McGowan said: "When people say it's impossible and the like, people have a short memory out there. Victoria went through hell last year... and did what it took. There's a template for you."
There it is folks. "Zero or minimal spread". With Delta, even in a fully vaccinated population that is not going to happen. Consider Iceland or the UK as an example and look at their numbers. The UK, 29,500 cases, 100 deaths with 89.3% / 76.3% vaccinated. Iceland 92.9% / 86.3% and they're still getting around 100 new cases a day - against a population of only 357,000. If we use the same rate for Australia, that's 7,400 Delta cases a day with 86% ofour population fully vaccinated! The equivalent UK rate for our population would be 11,000 cases a day.

McGowan's got rocks in his head if he thinks there's going to be "zero or minimal spread" with this Delta strain, even if we got to 90% vaccinated.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 01:14
  #7323 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SHVC
Don’t shoot the messenger, after my coffee I’m going to look at property also.

I was watching the USA morning show this morning they were reporting in massive spike in positive cases mainly in Florida. USA are not locking down shutting the economy. They seem to be enforcing mask wearing having empty stadiums at sports etc.
The outbreaks also seem to be in the most 'Trumpian' areas with the most anti-vaccine trend. What a surprise that the 'good ol' sou-eth' is where a lot of the problem is.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 01:39
  #7324 (permalink)  
 
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Oh is that so.

So what are the symptoms that are unique to COVID-19?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019.../symptoms.html
Pretty simple actually, if you are treating someone for severe symptoms you would have to get around to diagnosing a cause.

The UK has two separate distinctions for classifying covid deaths. "due to covid" which is where the virus was the underlying cause of symptoms and death, and "involving covid" where the patient was covid "positive", but the underlying cause of death was determined to be of other cause. As stated before, you could be determined covid positive. Which might mean you are just carrying some dead covid cells, ok I get that. But to be classified as having died due to covid it has to be relevant to symptoms and virus patterns, and determined by a medical professional.

Now that being said it would answer why the death rate has appeared to drop. If the threshold for testing positive was too low, you would get skewed data due to being positive and dieing from covid are measured in different ways.

To put it in simple terms, the CFR % is the deaths divided by cases. If the cases were over stated, then the CFR would indicate lower than actual. ie 1000 test positive vs 100 dead, 10% CFR. If only 500 of those actually carried enough virus to be deemed "infected" the real CFR is closer to 20%. Don't also confuse asymptomatic with non infected. Asymptomatic just means you are not displaying symptoms, but your body could be still fighting the infection within. Where as non infected would mean you are killing all virus cells that enter before they can replicate at any significant rate, both you could detect virus cells within the body.

BTW, to avoid any suggestion of conspiracy here; If a doctor was to deceivingly diagnose you with covid, you were treated for that, and later it comes out you died from flu, well, there would be a lot of law suits happening. I can't see doctors en-masse agreeing to waste their medical credentials and livelihood on pushing some weird government agender.

Last edited by 43Inches; 15th Aug 2021 at 01:58.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 01:58
  #7325 (permalink)  
 
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From Chant at today's useless brief -

But chief health officer Kerry Chant warned vaccination alone was "not a silver bullet".

"There is no silver bullet and vaccination is not a silver bullet — it is a tool," she said.

"Vaccination alone will not get us out of this situation.
So - what else will will get you out of this situation ?
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 02:11
  #7326 (permalink)  
 
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Another flawed analogy.
What is flawed about it? I'm starting to think you may lack some cognitive ability, in you only state one line retorts when your conspiracy rubbish gets disproven.

Also I didn't use any analogy.

The reference to CFR was a simple example without using real world data, It was in no way an Analogy.

I really get the feeling you are way out of your depth in this conversation.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 02:27
  #7327 (permalink)  
 
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Yeah, I lack cognitive ability, I'm a conspiracy theorist, I'm way out of depth, I need to see a doctor etc etc.

Thanks again for proving my point.
You are welcome, I think.

Was the point that you need a break and maybe lay off the alchohol?

You should think about taking a holiday somewhere nice, you know, get away from it all! If your fully vaxxed, maybe try WA? Tell me how that goes.
No need, been on part time holiday and now stand down holiday for over a year. Now I want some work, so....

GO GET VACCINATED, so we can all get back to it.

PS, I'm going for a walk, write me some noice one line retorts for me to play with when i return.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 02:44
  #7328 (permalink)  
 
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Some how I don’t think vaccination will get us back to work. Only zero cases and more than 80% vax rate then it will be discussed. There is that zero case mentality among the premiers who run this country, even Dr Chant would not say the 80% would be a free for all.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 03:39
  #7329 (permalink)  
 
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Yeah I need a break , I need to lay of the alcohol, your a farce.

I need a break from you.
Come now, you can do better! I barely got to know what you stand for, apart from running yourself down and very bad english.

I mean really I have read all your stuff, and my main issue is I have no idea what you are trying to say. Your retorts are confusing and make no sense. I'm trying to understand you but it's just not working, you post a lot of vids but no explanation of how they tie to the subject matter. When I tried to link what the vids showed and actual data you claim there's some flawed analogy, which again I'm unsure what analogy I used. And you keep referring to the word farce, I mean its comical in itself, but hardly insulting. The fact you don't answer direct questions generally infers you have little knowledge on the subject matter. So please enlighten us with what you know.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 03:57
  #7330 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SHVC
Some how I don’t think vaccination will get us back to work. Only zero cases and more than 80% vax rate then it will be discussed. There is that zero case mentality among the premiers who run this country, even Dr Chant would not say the 80% would be a free for all.
I agree with you, I think most of us have resigned ourselves to the fact we are not going anywhere in the next two years and have already made other plans. It'll take another year to respond once we can go somewhere. I think QLD will be the tourism hotspot domestically, if we can call it that for foreseeable future provided they keep it under control.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 04:05
  #7331 (permalink)  
 
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For obvious reasons we definitely will not be holidaying in Fiji or Bali anytime soon.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 04:08
  #7332 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 43Inches
For obvious reasons we definitely will not be holidaying in Fiji or Bali anytime soon.
I don't think Bali exists does it, certainly not as we knew it, most of the hotels have been gutted right down to the tapware.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 04:09
  #7333 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by SHVC
Some how I don’t think vaccination will get us back to work. Only zero cases and more than 80% vax rate then it will be discussed. There is that zero case mentality among the premiers who run this country, even Dr Chant would not say the 80% would be a free for all.
Im not commenting on whether this is right or wrong.. just stating what was said.

Marc McGowan has just said on Sky, that even at 80 percent vaccination, WA will always strive for zero covid, and the measures will include lock downs and hard borders……..

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/cor...rows-c-3684935

Last edited by SOPS; 15th Aug 2021 at 06:18.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 04:26
  #7334 (permalink)  
 
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So, If only 500 of those actually carried enough virus to be deemed 'infected', wouldn't that 100 'dead' number you used as an analogy, drop to maybe like 1 death (analogy) actual infection from the virus itself? Or you still using the false positive in your equation>?
An analogy is when you compare two disimilar things, like "Life is like a Box of Chocolates etc etc"

My figures were a simple equation of the same principle.

The explanation is thus; The false positive you are referring to, as explained in the videos is only for testing. Amount of dead within the same group will not change as the measuring stick for deciding if a death was due to Covid involves far more indicators than just the PCR test.

I'd have to dig them up again but the Mortality Figures published by the UK go more into detail about actual features of a Covid infection, such as clots in the lung, heart issues and brain issues associated with the virus.

So the only variable would be the case numbers, with little variance in the death toll. If the PCR test is set too sensitive, too many will present positive, therefore basic deaths vs cases will seem low. The opposite will occur is PCR test is not sensitive enough, fatality rate would seem high, less cases to more deaths.

I mean the answer would be incident rate use, but since covid seems to be reinfecting it may be a hard one to quantify. Also still requires a large expensive study to even get baseline figures for how many are infected.


A good example of flawed covid stats. Fiji right now;
Fong said as announced on 21 July, only people that had a higher risk of developing severe Covid-19 were being tested in Suva-Nausori.

"This was done so that resources could be targeted to early detection, monitoring and care of persons with Covid-19, who are at higher risk of severe disease, to prevent more people succumbing to severe disease and death," Dr Fong said in an epidemic outlook of the pandemic in the country.

"We are likely seeing the effect of this testing policy change now in Suva-Nausori with the drop in daily reported cases.
The Fijians have stopped testing all of the population and only testing vulnerable people in the Central District. So the case rate looks like its dropped off, when in fact there's just no data.

I also worry that a lot may be dead at home and not found yet, it's pretty bad over there.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 04:36
  #7335 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Blackout
and also Unexplained Blip, I couldn't find a memo from WHO worried about the False Negatives.

As Lockdowns are based on case numbers, the problem really is .False Positives
False negatives provide swiss cheese holes, that line up with other cheese holes, and start outbreaks which put us into restrictions and lockdowns. False positives change percentages a little bit, and give the spectators something to argue about.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 04:43
  #7336 (permalink)  
 
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As the video sort of explained a while back the PCR test can pick up anything, it's really not a false positive, the test picked up covid. The critical question as the Fauci Vid questions is how much Covid then makes one infectious, this is something that has been debated a bit. Generally it's not just how much but live/dead and where it's located. Live virus found in the respiratory system makes one definitely more contagious than dead virus in your intestine.

Re using Case numbers for lockdowns, there is really no other way. There is nothing else we know of that's fast enough to stay ahead of the virus, even then using case numbers is lagging it seems.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 04:53
  #7337 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Blackout
"Yes correct, over 99% recover- FACT
Define recover, I think you mean 99% survive death. 66% recover, the 33% have Long Covid, those stats are pre vaccine. We don't know yet what the effect if any on the pre vaccinated infected ones are yet, but so far it's looking good.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 04:54
  #7338 (permalink)  
 
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Fiji would have been a good example of actual fatality rates, as it seems we are going to see a country that will rapidly close in on 100% full infection. Unfortunately the Government there and the health system are already blaming people for not going to hospital as the reason for deaths. Its a government that tends to cover its own backside and "adjust" figures if they were to get out of control.

The change in testing methodology and such means we will just lack the data to gain anything meaningful from it.
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Old 15th Aug 2021, 05:01
  #7339 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Blackout
Dont worry 43, please add more to the list, im running myself down and have very bad english.
Blackout don’t waste your time with the likes of 43Inches.
If you want to get a handle of the real nature of this Covid problem then have a look at this real world data
All persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics.
As you can see the vaccines are having an effect on case numbers and fatality rates. But the intent of my post is to try and extrapolate the real nature of the Covid problem.
Two cohorts of 596 618 people each followed out to 42 days.
Infections in Unvaccinated 29365 Fatalities 112 .....IFR 0.38%
Infections in vaccinated 22943 Fatalities 32 ...........IFR 0.14%
Put in another way recovery rate in Unvaccinated was 99.62% and in Vaccinated was 99.86%
These IFR are similar to Stanford University modelling. The difference is the above data is Real World.


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Old 15th Aug 2021, 05:14
  #7340 (permalink)  
 
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I really have to laugh at you two, it's definitely a dynamic duo.

One is arguing the PCR is too sensitive, then lauds when the other provides a big graph using that PCR data to prove a point....Gold Standard

I don't think they have even read each others posts.

Keep going my court jesters,

I do find you both quaint and mildly amusing.
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