So, If only 500 of those actually carried enough virus to be deemed 'infected', wouldn't that 100 'dead' number you used as an analogy, drop to maybe like 1 death (analogy) actual infection from the virus itself? Or you still using the false positive in your equation>?
An analogy is when you compare two disimilar things, like "Life is like a Box of Chocolates etc etc"
My figures were a simple equation of the same principle.
The explanation is thus; The false positive you are referring to, as explained in the videos is only for testing. Amount of dead within the same group will not change as the measuring stick for deciding if a death was due to Covid involves far more indicators than just the PCR test.
I'd have to dig them up again but the Mortality Figures published by the UK go more into detail about actual features of a Covid infection, such as clots in the lung, heart issues and brain issues associated with the virus.
So the only variable would be the case numbers, with little variance in the death toll. If the PCR test is set too sensitive, too many will present positive, therefore basic deaths vs cases will seem low. The opposite will occur is PCR test is not sensitive enough, fatality rate would seem high, less cases to more deaths.
I mean the answer would be incident rate use, but since covid seems to be reinfecting it may be a hard one to quantify. Also still requires a large expensive study to even get baseline figures for how many are infected.
A good example of flawed covid stats. Fiji right now;
Fong said as announced on 21 July, only people that had a higher risk of developing severe Covid-19 were being tested in Suva-Nausori.
"This was done so that resources could be targeted to early detection, monitoring and care of persons with Covid-19, who are at higher risk of severe disease, to prevent more people succumbing to severe disease and death," Dr Fong said in an epidemic outlook of the pandemic in the country.
"We are likely seeing the effect of this testing policy change now in Suva-Nausori with the drop in daily reported cases.
The Fijians have stopped testing all of the population and only testing vulnerable people in the Central District. So the case rate looks like its dropped off, when in fact there's just no data.
I also worry that a lot may be dead at home and not found yet, it's pretty bad over there.