MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

[V-Jet]

So very very very true PW.

Makes me ILL!

[Stalins ugly Brother]

Quote:
Redundancies out of seniority anyone??
Bingo.

744 and 76 to be hit the hardest

Wrong, RTFFWD! It's in black and white. 15.10.2 (b)

VRs don't appear to have to be done in seniority. So certain ranks/fleets that are in surplus like 744/767 can be individually offered a VR package as an option 15.10.3(b). But for CRs last on first off is written for all to see.

[WorthWhat]

Looks like very few will be happy.

According to today's Age

In a fortnight, Qantas will release its half-year results showing the unavoidable reality of the airline's bind.

It will also lay out what it plans to do about it. Hockey will be demanding it see these things through, as a quid pro quo for government backing.

All in all, it is not going to be pleasant for anyone - not for Hockey, not for unions and least of all, for Qantas employees.


Read more: The storm facing Qantas was one Joe Hockey couldn't ignore

With all the wailing that’s going to go on, can’t imagine Allan, et.al. will be happy either.

[goodonyamate]

Wrong, RTFFWD! It's in black and white. 15.10.2 (b)

you really believe they will follow the WD if there is a cheaper option available via the courts? They will try to get relief from Last on first off, no doubt about it.

If you're holding on to strict seniority as a saviour.....

thats is of course assuming there are any redundancies....

[Stalins ugly Brother]

you really believe they will follow the WD if there is a cheaper option available via the courts?

Ummm, yes. Because the FWD was determined by the courts.

Thats where AJ has shot himself in the foot in that regard as he has already used that lifeline. Got to remember that this determination that we have know is due to all the hard work AJ went through shutting down the airline to get what he wanted. This is his determination, this is what he wanted. If he wanted redundancies out of seniority he should have been more proactive in negotiating instead of dummy spitting.
So to now turn around and ask for the FWD to be amended again to suit his current agenda would be admitting his failure in the first instance of shutting down the airline.

And we all know AJ has no failings.....

[blow.n.gasket]

From Markis 10's post:



About Jetstar Group


The Jetstar Group is Asia Pacific’s fastest growing and largest low fares network by revenue. It is made up of Jetstar Airways (subsidiary of the Qantas Group) in Australia and New Zealand, Jetstar Asia and Valuair in Singapore, Jetstar Pacific in Vietnam, Jetstar Japan in Japan and Jetstar Hong Kong (subject to regulatory approval). Jetstar branded carriers operate more than 4,000 flights a week to more than 60 destinations. The Jetstar Group carried more than 23 million passengers in financial year 2013.





I love the bit about "largest LCC "by revenue!
I would have thought that by profit would be a more sensible metric to brag about!
Obviously the propaganda machine at Jetstar Corporate has limits to how low they can go!




Sorry only a poor dumb retired pilot ,but using Jetstar's own propaganda I come up with the following-



23,000,000 pax /yr
4000 sectors/wk
208,000 sectors /yr
gives appx 110 pax /flight
Jetstars A320 seat 180 pax
which gives a load factor of appx 61%,
But it gets better if you throw into the mix A321, A322,A333's,
further diluting that rough load factor calculation.
I'd say ,being kind, that sub 60% load factor is all you could draw from Jetstar Corporates own data.


It truly is an Amazing Business model,
or am I missing something?????

[goodonyamate]

Ummm, yes. Because the FWD was determined by the courts.

Court transcript.....

AJ: We need to make X hundred pilots redundant. I understand that the WD and past practice says its strict seniority, last on first off. But QANTAS faces an unprecedented attack from foreign state owned airlines via a loss making strategy implemented by Virgin. We can't compete with their unlimited funding. We are losing squillions. If we follow LOFO principle, its going to cost X hundred million dollars because of the retraining costs and the time delay in getting everyone where we need them. This puts the whole group in an unacceptable position. If we have to follow LOFO, QFI will no longer be viable, and we will have to withdraw from all routes leading to the loss of X thousand jobs.

If we can have relief from LOFO in this extraordinary instance, we have a chance to survive and make the QANTAS group competitive again blah blah blah. Also, if the court pleases, I refer you to the Kendall CRJ case in whatever year

Judge: Oh umm ahem, well geez, i dunno, better talk to the government etc etc.

OK Alan, you got it.

I don't like it, but thats what I'm expecting our courts, and our government to do. Screw the workers, look after the big end of town.

[Ixixly]

Blow.n.Gasket, of course you're missing something, you're missing MSPP, Muffin Sales Per Passenger, that's the real metric that shows profitability of course! You bait them with a flight then hook'em with a muffin!!

[crosscutter]

Goodonyamate,

I have no doubt AJ will give it a crack if it comes to that... The only addition to the transcript might be: "but Qantas... You have $3 billion in the bank... Surely you can manage LOFO"

[WorthWhat]

Hmmm! Why do you think there won’t enough volunteers for VR Mate?

Economics 101 - at a particular price, the market will clear.

Agree, the court process takes years to hand down a final result. If timely & costly retaining really is the problem, then the affordable solution is enhanced VR.

[Stalins ugly Brother]

Court transcript.....

AJ: We need to make X hundred pilots redundant. I understand that the WD and past practice says its strict seniority, last on first off. But QANTAS faces an unprecedented attack from foreign state owned airlines via a loss making strategy implemented by Virgin. We can't compete with their unlimited funding. We are losing squillions. If we follow LOFO principle, its going to cost X hundred million dollars because of the retraining costs and the time delay in getting everyone where we need them. This puts the whole group in an unacceptable position. If we have to follow LOFO, QFI will no longer be viable, and we will have to withdraw from all routes leading to the loss of X thousand jobs.

If we can have relief from LOFO in this extraordinary instance, we have a chance to survive and make the QANTAS group competitive again blah blah blah. Also, if the court pleases, I refer you to the Kendall CRJ case in whatever year

Judge: So, aren't you the same man that was in my court 2 years ago pushing for this determination? And aren't you the same man at that time who stated that you were happy with the ruling and it now allowed you to run your business as you so wish? And aren't you the same man who has just cried poor to the government for financial assistance and have been granted in what can only be described as a low interest line of credit that will allow you to take the appropriate actions in regards to retraining as referred to in my determination? Your employees have been granted no such luxuries.
So after determining all this you now want me to change my ruling to again accommodate your mandate that can only be described at best as being half baked and lacking any foresight and to disadvantage a group of employees who of good faith have accepted the FW determination and have moved on with their lives? May I remind you again it was you that wanted this determination.

So, are you here purely to waste my time Mr Joyce or do you have something else???

AJ: (undecipherable)

Judge: Dismissed!

NEXT..............

[Variable Incidence]

Really, can we stop putting redundancy out of seniority out there! I think everyone's feeling depressed enough without adding endless doomsday speculation to the mix. We'll find out soon enough to be sure, to be sure....and no doubt it ain't going to be pretty.

[goodonyamate]

SUB,

I admire your confidence in our IR systems. Unfortunately to me, history has shown that the courts/government/company can't be relied on when it comes to such things.

Heres hoping there are 0 redundancies, then neither of our theories will need to be tested.....

[ferris]

From the Australian article already in this thread
"QANTAS has vowed to tackle workplace change as part of its plea for emergency government help amid a political fight over whether union demands are putting companies at risk.

As Joe Hockey attacks “militant” union leaders, Qantas is making industrial reform a key part of its case for a standby debt facility to cut its borrowing costs."

A few dots are lining up here:
1. Lots of anti-union rhetoric lately (see Hockey's lies about Toyota telling him they were leaving due to unions etc.)
2. They keep trotting out the story that Qantas is imperiled because of the QSA (how the Sale Act affects it's economic performance is beyond me- unless you are planning to sell the WHOLE THING to a hedge fund....)
3. The govt is clearly looking for Son of Workchoices (under an alias)


It REALLY looks like the recent meetings were discussing the tie-up of unrelated items to be spun together to commence an IR $hit-fight... a govt bailout giving them the moral authority to break agreements etc.

[griffin one]

I'd get the red tie out but they have made it part of the uniform.

[S70IP]

Qantas will be fine with the Government backing.
Virgin will die after 3-5 years. Virgin have virtually said this in their press release this afternoon.

Any form of government assistance to Qantas is a means to enabling them to reinstate their monopoly.

Tiger will be sold to Air NZ. Tiger will compete directly with Jetstar but not internationally.
One way business class fare to Perth will cost $2000 again..... Qantas will once again have a monopoly and back to $900 mill profits. Sure International will shrink but with 1000 pilot all due to retire in 5-10 years there will be no significant lay offs. Relax you guys. Maybe think of the Virgin employees who will lose there jobs. No company will dare compete with Qantas again in the business market....

[Jack Ranga]

Keep goin' (Carl Baron voice) more spelling mistakes to fix

[Mstr Caution]

Ixixly

First of all. I don't think QF will be making any pilots redundant anytime soon. Unfortunately I can't make the same assumption for non operational staff.

I've posted before. That Q currently had 2.1 managerial or supervisory staff for every one other employee. That's were the culls will happen.

Q are losing about the same rates of pilots per year in retirements to their current pilot surplus. They have held a pilot surplus of up to 190 pilots at its peak since 2009 excluding those of leave of absence.

And in informal passing discussions I've heard the comment that pilots within Q are just so darn expensive to be made redundant.

Whilst Qantas Management continue to babble on regarding labour costs. Experienced pilots can pick up a gig flying for Asian competitors and receive $18.5K USD net in their back pocket each months.

As for last on first off. Yes. Its written in the FWD and financially it also favours the company with redundancy payouts.

Take for example a 767 FO versus an A330 SO. At current payout figures the company would have to pay the FO close to $65k plus accrued annual leave compared to the SO around $18k plus leave. That's for the most junior of 767 FO ranks. Start making some senior 767 FO's redundant and were taking over $100k.

As for the JQ MOU.

There is a clause in the QF FWD that states the company will redeploy prior to redundancy. This is not a RIN redeployment. As the RIN is carried out prior to redundancies. So its a redeployment to other parts if the business.

Another part of the business is JQ, of which there's an MOU and as per my previous link. JQ are advertising for pilots.

For JQ to change there mind about recruitment. They would have to put on hold their recruitment for the period AIPA and the company were in discussions about CR. then also for the period they provide notice to the individual pilot (another 3 months).

Q would then put themselves in a position where they have given 3 months notice to a pilot of an impending CR and have that pilot continuing to fly for that 3 month period. Recall the lockout. Alan grounded the Airline because of a risk assesment about a possible lockout. Ouch.

If JQ/QF play silly buggers and put JQ recruitment on hold. For the period they made QF pilots redundant. Only to commence recruiting straight after. I think you'd see QF in court for transmission of business.

As for taking QF pilots back. They come back in seniority order when recruitment happens again.

I would think it would be difficult for the company to be recruiting newbies in JQ whilst QF pilots are made redundant and awaiting a call up per the FWD and a "redeployment" to JQ possible due recruiting requirements. But that's untested.

As for JQ NZ. They aren't party to the MOU. They are however part of the Qantas group. So I would envisage AIPA would discuss redeployment to another group airline prior to redundancy in mainline as required by the FWD.

I think the redundancy discussion is academic anyway. The Qantas group will need pilots with the forecasted growth rates of airlines in the Asia pacific.

I also believe the only reason QF haven't recruited in the last 5 years is they haven't got their B scale for pilots yet.

If they get a B scale the training will be running at capacity to play catch up with their competitors.

MC.

[Stalins ugly Brother]

I also believe the only reason QF haven't recruited in the last 5 years is they haven't got their B scale for pilots yet.

Bingo MC! Well said.

Enter the 787.....................The benchmark for the B scale.

[ACT Crusader]

VH Cheer-up wrote:

I have met him and can vouch that he's all that and more. A very, very experienced man, who has seen a lot of corporate nonsense both inside and outside the aviation sector.

Sometimes people get slagged for holding an opinion with which others do not agree. In my view, it's far better to hold a contrarian opinion, than to lack the intellect to make one capable of forming any kind of opinion at all.

He may be experienced and have a lot of valuable things to write about aviation but his reading of the automotive sector is way off in my view.

Sunfish wrote:

The destruction of the Australian automotive industry is just a taste of what Tony Abbott has in store for you.

This is just hyperbole and fails to recognise for example that Ford was up the creek years ago, Holden failed with the Cruze and Toyota plainly admitted to the Productivity Commission that it could produce the Camry in two other countries - this so called 'destruction' has very little to do with the current Government or the previous one for that matter. The Bracks Review from a few years ago and the submissions of the major players tell us as much.