Manchester-3

[HOVIS]

Reading in an Irish forum that the LR is returning to DUB next year to launch DUB-BUF. MAN will have 2 x based A330s. Many speculating it will be the 2 remaining A332s stored since the pandemic (EI-DAA & EI-DUO) which EI have confirmed are being reactivated this winter. This is potentially due to the delays in delivery of the 321XLRs next year.
Took me a moment to work out what an 'LR' was. Is writing A321 not cool enough?
But yes, worst kept secret at the airport, prepare for long tech delays. 😁

[The96er]

The A330-200’s have not been touched for nearly 3 years and would need a significant amount of works to bring them upto an airworthy standard. They also require cabin refits and wi-fi instillation. There was also another A330-200 acquired before the pandemic ex-QR that was painted in EI colours but never entered service. There’s also speculation that EI are trying to source other G.E powered A330’s for lease.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Virgin took over Delta Atlanta and New York routes! Delta were going to start Boston but the pandemic started. United is coming back next year. So?
Are United re-launching MAN in 2023? I can't find anything online, is it a TBC?

[Rutan16]

Been no official announcements as far as I know , other than a general understanding that United are intending to return at some point and with the right aircraft.

And that gleaned primarily from essence of the press statements back in the winter, and prior the COVID19 recovery strategy .

Specifically Manchester and Glasgow would not return in 2022 - (read NOT never return - a tautology! )

The Max fleet aren’t for crossing the Atlantic whilst the 321LR (XLR) frames that are planned to replace the 757 aren’t expected untill 2024 believe .

And I just don’t see United deploying a premium heavy 763 or 788 as a temporary measure next summer to be honest ( and certainly not if the combined effects of inflation and the deep recession that are expected, go on to knock out significant amounts of discretionary spending - fundamental to serving Manchester in particular)

I might be wrong however for me June 2024 seems the earliest restoration date right now .

I also think Edinburgh may well see some consolidation over the winter period, and that whilst the current plans indicate Washington, Chicago and Newark having an extended operation at the moment, at least one may well be cut back just as has happened this summer .

I seriously expect massive softening in the UK outbound travel markets in the coming months.

[Una Due Tfc]

The A330-200’s have not been touched for nearly 3 years and would need a significant amount of works to bring them upto an airworthy standard. They also require cabin refits and wi-fi instillation. There was also another A330-200 acquired before the pandemic ex-QR that was painted in EI colours but never entered service. There’s also speculation that EI are trying to source other G.E powered A330’s for lease.

EI-DUO and DAA have wifi, SATCOM and the same interior standard as the A330 currently in MAN, only the ex QR birds (EIL & EIK) have a substandard old QR interior. They’ll be refitted in winter.

BOS is apparently still intended to be launched once the XLRs start arriving, freeing up LRs in DUB.

[Shamrock350]

Waiting for the XLR is leaving it a bit late, that’s mid-2024 at the earliest for Aer Lingus. By that time I’d expect Boston to be served by someone else.

[Rutan16]

Waiting for the XLR is leaving it a bit late, that’s mid-2024 at the earliest for Aer Lingus. By that time I’d expect Boston to be served by someone else.

Delta/Virgin or JetBlue ?

As per my comments about United, I am deeply concerned about the gloomy economic prospects coming ourway in summer 2023, and frankly think Trans Atlantic expansion of any significant kind would be madness for all carriers !

After June 2023 just two seasons away, June 2024 is the next obvious point in the cycle .

To be honest Boston seems a pretty weak market from the North West, and isn’t exactly a large hub and spoke centre ( to drive some infill in the back of the bus) either.

Indeed when it come to economic drivers of long haul in particular, both airports can be seen to have some comparable drivers:
VFR ,international students, pharmaceutical industries combined with a healthy dose of outbound tourism.

Hubbing transfers aren’t among them, and it’s therefore primarily point to point traffic generated locally.

Both have some regional commuter/ essential island traffic in the mix, however at neither airport do these make a significant impact for onward connections.
At both airports these connections can be seen to be niche carriers in the main, rather than major network operators.

Other than Japan and Korea from Boston, and Bangladesh and Ethiopia from Manchester the profiles are remarkable similar ( even same Hainan Chinese presence!)

Indeed Manchester has the edge when it comes to the Middle East ( and onwards to the myriad Indian cities) by a country mile ,whilst Boston wins within the Americas
That VFR traffic again .

Neither manages a direct Delhi service for some reason I don’t quite understand given the university /tech industries similarities ( Both cities have major scientific universities, certainly liked by the Chinese rather less by Indians and I don’t know why, its just a little strange through)

Actually not really many computer science Indian students are enticed by rather easier and sponsored opportunities in the California and Washington State’s . Very specific courses in the main not so much physics and genuine scientific research ( generalisations acknowledged!)

From a Manchester -US perspective, and when the economic clouds divide the region desperately needs to recover a West Coast service imho.

With the death of TCX in the UK, future significant restoration/expansion is likely down to VS/DL in my view. Those 339s ordered gotta fly somewhere, however again thats post 2024 and beyond territory.

As for JetBlue I think their intentions beyond access to London remain be seen .
They have certainly been a prime beneficiary of the unexpected slot releases in the south east produced post COVID19, and this may have impacted some of their other plans in the immediacy.

Suffice to say prior summer 2024 just doesn’t seem to work for Boston imho.

[Mark J Bowcock]

Delta/Virgin or JetBlue ?

As per my comments about United, I am deeply concerned about the gloomy economic prospects coming ourway in summer 2023, and frankly think Trans Atlantic expansion of any significant kind would be madness for all carriers !

After June 2023 just two seasons away, June 2024 is the next obvious point in the cycle .

To be honest Boston seems a pretty weak market from the North West, and isn’t exactly a large hub and spoke centre ( to drive some infill in the back of the bus) either.

Indeed when it come to economic drivers of long haul in particular, both airports can be seen to have some comparable drivers:
VFR ,international students, pharmaceutical industries combined with a healthy dose of outbound tourism.

Hubbing transfers aren’t among them, and it’s therefore primarily point to point traffic generated locally.

Both have some regional commuter/ essential island traffic in the mix, however at neither airport do these make a significant impact for onward connections.
At both airports these connections can be seen to be niche carriers in the main, rather than major network operators.

Other than Japan and Korea from Boston, and Bangladesh and Ethiopia from Manchester the profiles are remarkable similar ( even same Hainan Chinese presence!)

Indeed Manchester has the edge when it comes to the Middle East ( and onwards to the myriad Indian cities) by a country mile ,whilst Boston wins within the Americas
That VFR traffic again .

Neither manages a direct Delhi service for some reason I don’t quite understand given the university /tech industries similarities ( Both cities have major scientific universities, certainly liked by the Chinese rather less by Indians and I don’t know why, its just a little strange through)

Actually not really many computer science Indian students are enticed by rather easier and sponsored opportunities in the California and Washington State’s . Very specific courses in the main not so much physics and genuine scientific research ( generalisations acknowledged!)

From a Manchester -US perspective, and when the economic clouds divide the region desperately needs to recover a West Coast service imho.

With the death of TCX in the UK, future significant restoration/expansion is likely down to VS/DL in my view. Those 339s ordered gotta fly somewhere, however again thats post 2024 and beyond territory.

As for JetBlue I think their intentions beyond access to London remain be seen .
They have certainly been a prime beneficiary of the unexpected slot releases in the south east produced post COVID19, and this may have impacted some of their other plans in the immediacy.

Suffice to say prior summer 2024 just doesn’t seem to work for Boston imho.


Theres seems to be a lot of I think this and I think that statements in your responses. Virgin flew to Boston 3/4 times a week on an A330 and it was due to come back daily on Delta b4 covid struck! So I think there’ is demand for it tbh! United was due to be upgraded to a 767300 again b4 covid! Perhaps seeing you live in London you should really dedicate your time to LGW who kind of lost most of its long haul traffic! Didn’t Virgin pull out but kept Manchester.

[Rutan16]

Theres seems to be a lot of I think this and I think that statements in your responses. Virgin flew to Boston 3/4 times a week on an A330 and it was due to come back daily on Delta b4 covid struck! So I think there’ is demand for it tbh! United was due to be upgraded to a 767300 again b4 covid! Perhaps seeing you live in London you should really dedicate your time to LGW who kind of lost most of its long haul traffic! Didn’t Virgin pull out but kept Manchester.

Unless you work directly in the aviation industry all is conjecture (I don’t but do have contacts in Manchester and Kent directly in the cargo industry- admittedly mainly to the EU and Hong Kong Kong)

I may live in North West London however come from humble Wythenshawe backgrounds and my own business employs 30 locals in Manchester (60 in the UK and more in Spain and Portugal)

In am a company director, quantity surveyor and analytical by nature not some spotty teenager ( well not for the last forty one years gone)

Manchester is where much of my extended family live, and remains my heart and soul with the interest in Ringway airport being my past present and future thank you

Some lyrics to understand

Instincts that can still betray us
A journey that leads to the sun
Soulless and bent on destruction
A struggle between right and wrong
You take my place in the showdown
I'll observe with a pitiful eye
I'd humbly ask for forgiveness
A request well beyond you and I
Heart and soul, one will burn
Heart and soul, one will burn
An abyss that laughs at creation
A circus complete with all fools
Foundations that lasted the ages
Then ripped apart at their roots
Beyond all this good is the terror
The grip of a mercenary hand
When savagery turns all good reason
There's no turning back, no last stand
Heart and soul, one will burn
Heart and soul, one will burn
Existence, well, what does it matter?
I exist on the best terms I can
The past is now part of my future
The present is well out of hand
Heart and soul
One will burn
Heart and soul
One will burn

Any ideas ?

Have had enough of rather spiteful comments made elsewhere by ignorants, so please don’t bring them here , we all have an interest and don’t make it personal it’s not necessary is it really ?

I would be more than pleased to here from you and others anytime about information relevant through I will critique those when necessary it’s fundamentally how dialogue works .

As for Gatwick an airport yes I use for those trips to Spain but what’s it got to do with Manchester really ?

Again as with fellow London immigrant ( my Scottish friend) can I ask where you get/ got the information about United definitely returning in 2023 ?

And yes your pre COVID19 schedules Delta to Boston ( right plane size over partners Virgin big bird ) and United temporary use of the 764 aren’t disputed, however the world and industry has changed and the recovery process isn’t exactly a straight line is it ?

You can like it or not, 2023 is going to be a rough year and not a belief- a fact many / most carriers ( indeed business more widely) are already planning and implementing managed processes aimed a cash preservation not risky expansion.

[eye2eye5]

You may also find this document interesting, Rutan:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7976/

It suggests that the government target of 600k International students by 2030 has already been met, suggesting that the large growth seen over the last decade will not be replicated in the future (unless policy changes). There may, of course, be some changes in the composition of the student market with a fall in EU students possibly being replaced by those from other countries. The Chinese economy is not in the rude health it once was, with the property market in particular being in free fall. That may impact on the ability of parents to pay for their offspring to attend university in the UK.

[Rutan16]

You may also find this document interesting, Rutan:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7976/

It suggests that the government target of 600k International students by 2030 has already been met, suggesting that the large growth seen over the last decade will not be replicated in the future (unless policy changes). There may, of course, be some changes in the composition of the student market with a fall in EU students possibly being replaced by those from other countries. The Chinese economy is not in the rude health it once was, with the property market in particular being in free fall. That may impact on the ability of parents to pay for their offspring to attend university in the UK.

Yes I have seen this and it can indeed add to those woes caveated.

That said China has provided quite a sizeable increase in permits ( this winter I understand mainly for the completion of existing courses)

Now Outside of the EU many English colleges are actively promoting and seeking International students from the rest of the world right now (They desperately need the funding monies !); can’t get those Erasmus students anymore .

An unfortunate and unexpected consequence being fewer places on some courses for domestic students so to speak.

Its certainly an interesting subject for debate elsewhere if you have time .

Apparently the number of international student visas for the coming year is among the highest on record

Its interesting that contrary to your and that article in the COVID19 in the year upto March 2022 466,611 visas were approved up 58% on the previous year and this year its expected to be close to 470,000.
That still leaves 30,000 for growth potential in the coming years.

So the suggestion international students ( except EU candidates) may/are going elsewhere is fictitious to be honest.

Indeed reports forecast slowing in the demand curve and most definitely No contractions, quite the opposite.

As a tool it identifies where the dean’s of colleges need to refocus ( having been forced to contract out of Erasmus and similar programmes by the national government)

However what’s that to got do with Manchester airport in particular prey tell ?

Are you suggesting Beijing is for the bin ( a route restored a week ago , immediately after PRC eased some departure restrictions) or that Cathay pull Hong Kong a route they have prioritised over what might have been considered the logical EU capitals in the post COVID19 recovery?

Or just perhaps you are implying Liverpool bound students route via a Foreign (Eu) terminal and a certain German carrier the name I forget right now a few days a week?

Whilst international students make up a comparatively small market overall , they are captive, non discretionary and therefore valuable .

Like everything else Brexit consequences are disastrous!

[MANFOD]

Theres seems to be a lot of I think this and I think that statements in your responses. Virgin flew to Boston 3/4 times a week on an A330 and it was due to come back daily on Delta b4 covid struck! So I think there’ is demand for it tbh! United was due to be upgraded to a 767300 again b4 covid! Perhaps seeing you live in London you should really dedicate your time to LGW who kind of lost most of its long haul traffic! Didn’t Virgin pull out but kept Manchester.

I'm afraid Rutan16 is correct. The economic environment now and for the foreseeable future is not what it was pre-covid. With energy costs soaring and the impact of inflation generally not being nullified by pay increases, disposable income for many people will not be enough for expensive holidays, particularly to the US. Who remembers the days not all that many years ago when you could buy US dollars at $1.60 to the pound? With the pound currently at $1.17, for leisure travellers that is surely going to reflect in the price of airfares, accommodation & food in the US as well as visits to theme parks and other attractions. For those determined to go there, it's possible they may be prepared to trade down, flying economy rather than premium perhaps, staying in more modest motels and eating in less expensive restaurants. The prospects for business travel is also uncertain even though MAN does seem to attract rather more premium passengers than it once did. Even relatively comfortable retired folk who have enjoyed long haul holidays will not be immune from inflationary pressures and may think twice. The Canaries maybe instead of California.

With current exchange rates, it might be thought that we could see a boost in Americans coming over here, but the US has its own problems and in any case those who do fly tend mainly to use Heathrow unfortunately.

I'd be delighted if United did return in 2023 and would like to see flights to LAX and SFO from MAN again soon. But one has to be realistic. For some airlines, survival will be the name of the game, and for others only flying to places with little risk and a good chance of a decent yield.

I should add that the situation going east looks more hopeful. Emirates are back to 3 x A380 this winter, Hainan returning albeit with a modest frequency and Cathay gradually increasing flights. Fingers crossed those flights perform well.

[eye2eye5]

Tsk Rutan, must every conversation assume that I only have interest in one airport? I have my own preferences around which I prefer to travel through, but as a Lancastrian by birth I favour the fortunes of the North West in general and spent much of my youth at either one airport or the other. Having been heavily involved in student campaigns across the North in the past, I found the article interesting as I was unaware of a Government attraction target ( indeed I suggest that was not publicised during the Brexit campaign, funnily enough).As I understand it, there are a number of planned charters from Junao in the near future which are likely to be student related, hence it does impact MAN and the likelihood of converting charters to scheduled services.

[Rutan16]

If you don’t want me to make “ biased” assumptions consider phasing things rather differently.

I too want a prosperous North West region indeed my own pockets will directly benefit ;)

It’s not me that rattles on another forum constantly about a 4 day week flight as if every one along the East Lancs cares !

I have to say my own daughter is in her final year in Nantes and thankfully benefited from the Erasmus programmes .

She has absolutely no intentions of returning either and doesn’t need to “ has a German passport courtesy of mum

As I said contrary to the narrative, China has increased the student visas and UK Plc has issued more .What’s your immediate problem.

I am far more concerned by the massive drop in EU students than global students aren’t you ?

And did you miss read quoting myself “Whilst international students make up a comparatively small market overall , they are captive, non discretionary and therefore valuable”

[eye2eye5]

Rutan, I was responding to one of your previous posts in which you made reference to the lack of a Delhi service despite the “university/tech industry similarities”. I’m not sure why you feel I have a problem with the numbers, although I feel that universities could easily become exposed to any change in the Chinese market which may occur in the future. Latest data suggests that International students make up 22% of total student numbers although in terms of income, they will make up a substantially higher percentage. Personally, I would prefer EU students to be thought of as domestic, but that particular ship has long sailed.

If you can find any reference I have made to LH flights elsewhere, I will donate £10 to a charity of your choice. Let’s put that type of exchange to bed shall we.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Some excellent points raised in the exchanges above. I would like to add my voice to those cautioning against unbridled optimism for the UK aviation industry in 2023. We need to be factoring in recession, and that means airlines retrenching and conserving cash. Some came close to extinction during the covid era, and their reserves remain weakened and depleted. UK carriers in particular received very little help from government, barring those generic schemes which were available to all employers. They need a period of stability and cannot afford to gamble.

MANFOD and Rutan16 explained the looming challenges well. But I would like to add some additional points. Firstly, the 'voucher redemption bulge' which fuelled exceptional demand in Summer 2022 has largely worked through the system now. It will be a far lesser factor for the industry in 2023. Although in certain respects that is a good thing, as the affected carriers were in effect working off historic liabilities with voucher redemptions not bringing in fresh cash.

2022 also saw a surge in demand for travel from those who had not been able to meet up with friends and family for upto three years previously. Much of that demand has now been satisfied; many of those delayed reunions have now taken place. Exceptions would be Australia, New Zealand and some Asian nations which retained harsh covid entry restrictions upto a much later stage than most of their European counterparts. Some of the delayed Australasia demand will be satisfied in the coming UK Winter season (Antipodean Summer). Certain countries such as China remain too restricted for discretionary leisure travel to return; students and essential business travel will endure the necessary hurdles as their payback justifies it. Even the US was relatively late to lift covid restrictions for visitors.

War in Ukraine remains a major problem. The human suffering is self-evident and I acknowledge it 100%, but for the purposes of this discussion I will stick to the implications for air travel. Fuel prices have soared, and further rises cannot be ruled out. The impact on airlines need not be further explained to most readers on here. Sanctions and airspace closures have imposed longer routings requiring extra fuel-burn for many key routes. Carriers such as Finnair and Air Baltic have seen their East-West business models destroyed overnight. Travel between the UK and Russia is at a virtual standstill. There are calls to ban Russian tourists from vacationing in EU states. Some destinations in Eastern Europe have seen demand for city breaks impacted by perceived proximity to the war zone.

MANFOD touched on exchange rates. The "everything sell-off" in the financial markets has seen the USDX (US Dollar Index) soar to a twenty year high, making Dollars comparatively expensive versus other major currencies. In general, when investment assets are sold payments are made in USD, so demand for these naturally soars when a major sell-off hits. However, whilst we see a very challenging GBP/USD exchange rate, the Euro has endured a torrid run due to perceived reliance of Euroland on Russian oil and gas. So the GBP/EUR exchange rate is far less daunting, and destinations such as Turkey with the cratering Turkish Lira appear to offer great value to travellers. So, as MANFOD alluded to, I would expect to see a continuation of increased demand for destinations which offer 'bargain' prices. Folks might not axe travel altogether, but they may book a fortnight in Antalya rather than Orlando. We also see this effect by airline as well: a carrier such as Ryanair can benefit from customers trading down from premium carriers which they may have preferred previously. So the no-frills short-haul carriers may be better placed looking ahead than those relying on Transatlantic demand, for example.

The cruise industry continues to suffer. They put out upbeat messages to give the impression of business as usual, but demand is muted and caution abounds. Just look how many cruise ships continue to operate loops around the coast of the British Isles. Many more adventurous itineraries continue to get cancelled. Some older customers continue to fear cruise ships as potential vectors for mass-infection. Even those who don't (like me) do fear being confined to one's cabin for a fortnight in the cell if spotted using a tissue. Fly-cruise business will remain challenging for a while yet, and that is another blow to Florida and the Caribbean in particular.

One more factor to keep in mind too. Many customers endured a poor air travel experience in 2022. Airport delays, queues, late cancellations, lost luggage. I've had so many friends tell me they've been put off travelling abroad again for the foreseeable. Companies such as TUI, BA and EasyJet have lost alot of goodwill. This will take time to return. And the administrative aftermath from disrupted travel is an enduring nightmare: endless forms, unanswered phones ("your call is important to us"), staff in India / China sympathetic but not empowered to actually resolve issues when the phone does miraculously get answered. E.Mail communications routinely ignored. I and close family / friends are beyond hacked off with this merry-go-round of failure and frustration. It is actively putting me off making new bookings. Just looking at my own track record, I felt like a full-time travel agent pursuing refunds and juggling vouchers in 2020 / 2021. I'm still awaiting an Air Europa refund from early 2020. SAS refuse to refund an expensive 'non-refundable change fee' despite it being THEY who cancelled the new flights with the customers ready to travel. I'm in dispute with Wizz Air who refuse to refund £95 in 'Wizz Credits' which they neglected to set against my rebooked flights despite me doing everything correctly to enable this to happen as intended. My nephew recently had his outbound travel luggage delivered by Aer Lingus to a remote log cabin in Idaho - two weeks after he had returned home to the UK. He has found it impossible to contact Aer Lingus by any communications channel to discuss this. This year, when covid restrictions had broadly ended, I felt that it was safe to put a toe back into air travel in the form of new bookings. RYANAIR cancelled my return trip MAN-ORK, they took over £250 from my credit card for the "free" rebook to alternative dates option. It took me six months to get that back. EASYJET cancelled my Summer MAN-IOM trip; as I'd committed to ground arrangements on the island I had to rebook with Loganair at a far higher fare than if I'd booked with them in the first place. WIZZ AIR cancelled my August 2022 RIX-LTN booking ... the one I was already in dispute with them about for not applying my Wizz Credit to the booking. I had to rebook Finnair RIX-HEL-LHR as I was already committed to MAN-RIX with Air Baltic. And, speaking of Air Baltic, they have now cancelled my MAN-RIX-MAN booking for four passengers in September.

I realise that the above paragraph is a yarn, but it illustrates an important point. Leisure travel is meant to be FUN. And for too many customers in 2022 it hasn't been anything close to that. I've personally had SIX flight sectors cancelled on bookings made SINCE covid restrictions were lifted in the UK. They all generate another round of thankless admin which I naively thought I'd left behind post lifting of covid restrictions. I know I'm not the only one experiencing this. IT MAKES ME RELUCTANT TO BOOK NEW FLIGHTS. I have only two sectors booked at this point; I'd usually have around 20. That is purely down to avoidance of further administrative hassle, not household budgeting. I can't be the only one who feels hacked off with the airline industry at this point. I completely understand the problems they have faced, but I won't subject myself to more of this until the industry gets its act together. And I want my refunds sorted too. The Wizz Air one is off to arbitration in some EU department. I'd get banned if I wrote what I really think about them on here. Suffice to say that they'll be getting no more business from me or anybody I advise on air travel bookings.

So, in summary. 2023 will be tough.

- The voucher bulge has largely worked through the system.
- Cost of living crisis stressing disposable incomes.
- Exchange rate concerns, fuel costs, geopolitical fears.
- Folks at the end of their tether with the dysfunctional leisure travel experience.
- Continuing cancellations, changes, unanswered communications, delayed refunds, lost luggage, nightmarish admin hassle.
- Fear of sudden new covid restrictions; confinement to cabin / hotel room if seen with runny nose / getting stranded overseas.

ANYONE FOR A HOLIDAY?

[eye2eye5]

Great post, Ozzy. Can I add another issue? The astronomic increases in the cost of gas and electricity will also impact on the costs of running airports and the concessions within them. For a recovering industry, it’s yet another straw on the camel’s back.

[Rutan16]

Great post, Ozzy. Can I add another issue? The astronomic increases in the cost of gas and electricity will also impact on the costs of running airports and the concessions within them. For a recovering industry, it’s yet another straw on the camel’s back.
Agreed Ozzy post is apt and poignantly delivered !

On the University issues we seemingly are just looking at the same problems from slightly differing angles and not actually in any disagreement.

The issues on another site shouldn’t spill over here especially those of a certain cabal ( we know of whom we speak :ok:)

If you want to name a charity I’ll donate £10 this evening ( currently I support MSF and Mind with regular donations)

As to the more personal issue yes let’s put the issues to the side and move on

[eye2eye5]

That’s hugely generous of you. I do support a number of charities but Cancer Research UK is the most important to me. I also support MSF and I’ll replicate your offer in kind.

[Rutan16]

That’s hugely generous of you. I do support a number of charities but Cancer Research UK is the most important to me. I also support MSF and I’ll replicate your offer in kind.

Transaction from screen shot with reference Thank you Keith for your monthly donation of £10.00Your regular gift will help us commit to long-term research projects with huge potential that could help save more lives.

Your donation has been processed successfully and you should receive a receipt by email from us in the next hour.

Full details of your Direct Debit will be sent to you in the post no later than 10 working days before the first collection date. Cancer Research UK will show on your bank statement against this Direct Debit.
Transaction details Reference number ODEJ2162V5P7D0 Transaction amount £10.00 Frequency Monthly Start date 5th

By the way good choice as my wife is an oncology sister at a leading Cancer and research centre in North London

[Bbtengineer]

Some excellent points raised in the exchanges above. I would like to add my voice to those cautioning against unbridled optimism for the UK aviation industry in 2023. We need to be factoring in recession, and that means airlines retrenching and conserving cash. Some came close to extinction during the covid era, and their reserves remain weakened and depleted. UK carriers in particular received very little help from government, barring those generic schemes which were available to all employers. They need a period of stability and cannot afford to gamble.

MANFOD and Rutan16 explained the looming challenges well. But I would like to add some additional points. Firstly, the 'voucher redemption bulge' which fuelled exceptional demand in Summer 2022 has largely worked through the system now. It will be a far lesser factor for the industry in 2023. Although in certain respects that is a good thing, as the affected carriers were in effect working off historic liabilities with voucher redemptions not bringing in fresh cash.

2022 also saw a surge in demand for travel from those who had not been able to meet up with friends and family for upto three years previously. Much of that demand has now been satisfied; many of those delayed reunions have now taken place. Exceptions would be Australia, New Zealand and some Asian nations which retained harsh covid entry restrictions upto a much later stage than most of their European counterparts. Some of the delayed Australasia demand will be satisfied in the coming UK Winter season (Antipodean Summer). Certain countries such as China remain too restricted for discretionary leisure travel to return; students and essential business travel will endure the necessary hurdles as their payback justifies it. Even the US was relatively late to lift covid restrictions for visitors.

War in Ukraine remains a major problem. The human suffering is self-evident and I acknowledge it 100%, but for the purposes of this discussion I will stick to the implications for air travel. Fuel prices have soared, and further rises cannot be ruled out. The impact on airlines need not be further explained to most readers on here. Sanctions and airspace closures have imposed longer routings requiring extra fuel-burn for many key routes. Carriers such as Finnair and Air Baltic have seen their East-West business models destroyed overnight. Travel between the UK and Russia is at a virtual standstill. There are calls to ban Russian tourists from vacationing in EU states. Some destinations in Eastern Europe have seen demand for city breaks impacted by perceived proximity to the war zone.

MANFOD touched on exchange rates. The "everything sell-off" in the financial markets has seen the USDX (US Dollar Index) soar to a twenty year high, making Dollars comparatively expensive versus other major currencies. In general, when investment assets are sold payments are made in USD, so demand for these naturally soars when a major sell-off hits. However, whilst we see a very challenging GBP/USD exchange rate, the Euro has endured a torrid run due to perceived reliance of Euroland on Russian oil and gas. So the GBP/EUR exchange rate is far less daunting, and destinations such as Turkey with the cratering Turkish Lira appear to offer great value to travellers. So, as MANFOD alluded to, I would expect to see a continuation of increased demand for destinations which offer 'bargain' prices. Folks might not axe travel altogether, but they may book a fortnight in Antalya rather than Orlando. We also see this effect by airline as well: a carrier such as Ryanair can benefit from customers trading down from premium carriers which they may have preferred previously. So the no-frills short-haul carriers may be better placed looking ahead than those relying on Transatlantic demand, for example.

The cruise industry continues to suffer. They put out upbeat messages to give the impression of business as usual, but demand is muted and caution abounds. Just look how many cruise ships continue to operate loops around the coast of the British Isles. Many more adventurous itineraries continue to get cancelled. Some older customers continue to fear cruise ships as potential vectors for mass-infection. Even those who don't (like me) do fear being confined to one's cabin for a fortnight in the cell if spotted using a tissue. Fly-cruise business will remain challenging for a while yet, and that is another blow to Florida and the Caribbean in particular.

One more factor to keep in mind too. Many customers endured a poor air travel experience in 2022. Airport delays, queues, late cancellations, lost luggage. I've had so many friends tell me they've been put off travelling abroad again for the foreseeable. Companies such as TUI, BA and EasyJet have lost alot of goodwill. This will take time to return. And the administrative aftermath from disrupted travel is an enduring nightmare: endless forms, unanswered phones ("your call is important to us"), staff in India / China sympathetic but not empowered to actually resolve issues when the phone does miraculously get answered. E.Mail communications routinely ignored. I and close family / friends are beyond hacked off with this merry-go-round of failure and frustration. It is actively putting me off making new bookings. Just looking at my own track record, I felt like a full-time travel agent pursuing refunds and juggling vouchers in 2020 / 2021. I'm still awaiting an Air Europa refund from early 2020. SAS refuse to refund an expensive 'non-refundable change fee' despite it being THEY who cancelled the new flights with the customers ready to travel. I'm in dispute with Wizz Air who refuse to refund £95 in 'Wizz Credits' which they neglected to set against my rebooked flights despite me doing everything correctly to enable this to happen as intended. My nephew recently had his outbound travel luggage delivered by Aer Lingus to a remote log cabin in Idaho - two weeks after he had returned home to the UK. He has found it impossible to contact Aer Lingus by any communications channel to discuss this. This year, when covid restrictions had broadly ended, I felt that it was safe to put a toe back into air travel in the form of new bookings. RYANAIR cancelled my return trip MAN-ORK, they took over £250 from my credit card for the "free" rebook to alternative dates option. It took me six months to get that back. EASYJET cancelled my Summer MAN-IOM trip; as I'd committed to ground arrangements on the island I had to rebook with Loganair at a far higher fare than if I'd booked with them in the first place. WIZZ AIR cancelled my August 2022 RIX-LTN booking ... the one I was already in dispute with them about for not applying my Wizz Credit to the booking. I had to rebook Finnair RIX-HEL-LHR as I was already committed to MAN-RIX with Air Baltic. And, speaking of Air Baltic, they have now cancelled my MAN-RIX-MAN booking for four passengers in September.

I realise that the above paragraph is a yarn, but it illustrates an important point. Leisure travel is meant to be FUN. And for too many customers in 2022 it hasn't been anything close to that. I've personally had SIX flight sectors cancelled on bookings made SINCE covid restrictions were lifted in the UK. They all generate another round of thankless admin which I naively thought I'd left behind post lifting of covid restrictions. I know I'm not the only one experiencing this. IT MAKES ME RELUCTANT TO BOOK NEW FLIGHTS. I have only two sectors booked at this point; I'd usually have around 20. That is purely down to avoidance of further administrative hassle, not household budgeting. I can't be the only one who feels hacked off with the airline industry at this point. I completely understand the problems they have faced, but I won't subject myself to more of this until the industry gets its act together. And I want my refunds sorted too. The Wizz Air one is off to arbitration in some EU department. I'd get banned if I wrote what I really think about them on here. Suffice to say that they'll be getting no more business from me or anybody I advise on air travel bookings.

So, in summary. 2023 will be tough.

- The voucher bulge has largely worked through the system.
- Cost of living crisis stressing disposable incomes.
- Exchange rate concerns, fuel costs, geopolitical fears.
- Folks at the end of their tether with the dysfunctional leisure travel experience.
- Continuing cancellations, changes, unanswered communications, delayed refunds, lost luggage, nightmarish admin hassle.
- Fear of sudden new covid restrictions; confinement to cabin / hotel room if seen with runny nose / getting stranded overseas.

ANYONE FOR A HOLIDAY?

I cannot disagree with the frustrations but would offer some counterpoints.

Employment is full.

Fuel prices are declining, as now is inflation.

Work is increasingly remote for many, far more opportunities to travel and still get paid.

Industry overshot to the down side on staffing and will now over correct the other way.

All of these point to increased supply, lower prices and renewed participation.

[Paul_from_Dublin]

OzzyOzBorn, couldn't agree more with your lengthy post.
I have plenty of time and money to travel and I wouldn't dream of booking anything for as far out as I can imagine.
This may well take some considerable time to work through.
Well done the airlines.

[Mr A Tis]

Agree with Ozzy. I’ve had 2 of my 4 legs with Air Canada downgraded & denied boarding on another, all without recompense- or any prospect of such.incorporating delays (baggage) too.
I am travelling long haul (Thai) in December for essential personal reasons.
I would normally be making several discretionary trips in between the AC & TG, but given the current passenger experience, it just isn’t worth it.

[HOVIS]

I cannot disagree with the frustrations but would offer some counterpoints.

Employment is full.

Fuel prices are declining, as now is inflation.

Work is increasingly remote for many, far more opportunities to travel and still get paid.

Industry overshot to the down side on staffing and will now over correct the other way.

All of these point to increased supply, lower prices and renewed participation.
Is this satire?

[DomyDom]

I cannot disagree with the frustrations but would offer some counterpoints.

Employment is full.

Fuel prices are declining, as now is inflation.

Work is increasingly remote for many, far more opportunities to travel and still get paid.

Industry overshot to the down side on staffing and will now over correct the other way.

All of these point to increased supply, lower prices and renewed participation.
At 10.1% the UK inflation rate is increasing, the only Western European country in double figures and above the EU average. "Employment is full" meaning insufficient baggage handlers, airport catering staff, aircrew and more delays/cancellations 🤣.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

The EU inflation rate is 9.1% and rising. The Russian gas pipeline has once again been shut off "temporarily". An EU vs. UK arguement here is proper playground stuff.
UK unemployment remains remarkably low.
meaning insufficient baggage handlers, airport catering staff, aircrew and more delays/cancellations
They're linked. Cost of living is a real challenge, advocating for desperate EU nationals to come here and work for less than you or I isn't progressive! We know blue collar wages have been forced downwards relatively speaking for years in aviation, a re-set upwards isn't a bad thing IMHO. The low cost bubble was exploititative on a few levels, it's hardly a bad thing when people no longer are forced to work harder for less and less each year. Also, there's still quite a few remarkably cash rich people who continue to do very well working from home and saving on stupidly high rail fares, demand will be fairly robust in 2023 I suspect.
Aviation needs to get it's house in order across the board IMHO. Turnover is still stupidly high as management are still paying peanuts.....

[Rutan16]

Is this satire?

Thought so too !

[Rutan16]

The EU inflation rate is 9.1% and rising. The Russian gas pipeline has once again been shut off "temporarily". An EU vs. UK arguement here is proper playground stuff.
UK unemployment remains remarkably low.

They're linked. Cost of living is a real challenge, advocating for desperate EU nationals to come here and work for less than you or I isn't progressive! We know blue collar wages have been forced downwards relatively speaking for years in aviation, a re-set upwards isn't a bad thing IMHO. The low cost bubble was exploititative on a few levels, it's hardly a bad thing when people no longer are forced to work harder for less and less each year. Also, there's still quite a few remarkably cash rich people who continue to do very well working from home and saving on stupidly high rail fares, demand will be fairly robust in 2023 I suspect.
Aviation needs to get it's house in order across the board IMHO. Turnover is still stupidly high as management are still paying peanuts.....

As both you and I are economic migrants ( for personal betterment) and the fact much indeed most of the wage containment over the last decade has been with approval of the government ( English Nationalist , sometimes Conservative) including promotion of zero hours or the worse a guaranteed base hour ( could be modern slavery; these effectively block the opportunities for multiple contracts ),I think we should reappraise your comments.

Why shouldn’t I employ someone from Gdańsk if they have the skills ( lacking in the general public) here in London and same across the whole economy. Would I employ someone from the UK well yes however that’s up to the candidate to A apply B demonstrate ability C aptitude D be in the right geographically location .

Resourceful people move thats a constituent element of the human condition ( might even be primeval).

For the worlds higher earners it’s not even questioned !

The last time a capitalist economy closed its doors to external labour and entered a trade war ,also had a period immediately prior with under employment and that resulted super inflation a stock market crash , massive UNEMPLOYMENT and a depression

Final point of relevance within the UK that impacts domestic labour, mobility is without doubt the most important - accommodation to earning ratios- Suffice to say it’s broken indeed solidly seized preventing many moving even if willing and no party had been able or willing to address this right back to Thatcher.

So that mythical chap from Gdańsk may be willing to take shared room,
yet a family from Hattersley would expect to move lock stock and barrel (and why not !) but can’t they lack the prime funding !

The lack of genuine not so called affordable, but actual social housing can be seen at the heart of many of the problems within the UK economy.
The unemployed and job opportunity locations differ significantly - any suggestions how we overcome this with effective and structural solutions?

[SWBKCB]

As both you and I are economic migrants ( for personal betterment) and the fact much indeed most of the wage containment over the last decade has been with approval of the government ( English Nationalist , sometimes Conservative) including promotion of zero hours or the worse a guaranteed base hour ( could be modern slavery; these effectively block the opportunities for multiple contracts ),I think we should reappraise your comments.

Lets be fair, driven by EU policies as much as by UK govts - and not just Tories

Final point of relevance within the UK that impacts domestic labour, mobility is without doubt the most important - accommodation to earning ratios- Suffice to say it’s broken indeed solidly seized preventing many moving even if willing and no party had been able or willing to address this right back to Thatcher.

Yes - huge obstacle in the UK economy.

Now - back to Manchester (if I could afford it! :ok:)

[OzzyOzBorn]

Just to add that whilst labour shortages inevitably turn the thoughts of UK commentators to Brexit, 6.25 million EU citizens applied for and were granted leave to remain in this country. Two years of enforced economic idleness under 'covidworld' did persuade some to relocate back from their miserable UK bedsits to family in their countries of origin (if they still could), but many are still here and in our labour force. If we examine recruitment problems replicated at airports across Euroland: DUB, AMS, DUS, BER and many more, plus across into the US and Australia, it is clear that we can't just blame Brexit and look no further. Industry remuneration, terms and conditions need a reset. And this extends across the spectrum of blue collar employment; the UK was not the only country with shortages of truck drivers, bus drivers and many more roles too. The issue is widespread.

[True Blue]

The issue is that a lot of people of working age decided that they could no longer be bothered to work. A lot of these people have left the workplace and furlough will have a lot of very negative effects in this country for years to come. There is a crisis - where is the next handout is now the norm. Just about every business I come into contact with have vacancies, yet for many working a few more hours to help with their cash needs does not seem to be an option. And I am talking about businesses that pay good wages and good T & C's.

[Rutan16]

Lets be fair, driven by EU policies as much as by UK govts - and not just Tories


Yes - huge obstacle in the UK economy.

Now - back to Manchester (if I could afford it! :ok:)

No nothing to do with the EU indeed the concept of Zero hours contract are largely illegal in many of our neighbouring economies
Now as to the working time directive and guaranteed paid holiday entitlement and rudimentary redundancy terms yes they are a problem NOT !

[Rutan16]

The issue is that a lot of people of working age decided that they could no longer be bothered to work. A lot of these people have left the workplace and furlough will have a lot of very negative effects in this country for years to come. There is a crisis - where is the next handout is now the norm. Just about every business I come into contact with have vacancies, yet for many working a few more hours to help with their cash needs does not seem to be an option. And I am talking about businesses that pay good wages and good T & C's.This is utter gas lighting and deflective nonsense afraid to say and certainly not reflected in any figures I can see
Through repeated by the likes of RH Mogg of the nineteenth century
Yes there are a core of baby boomers 55 and above that have made enough money to early retire and good on them equally there remains a tide of ageism in the work place for those in the same age bands that actually do want to work
The second could be targeted I suppose via incentives within the tax and benefits system I agree however there should be no enforced returns imho

[True Blue]

Rutan16, I respect your opinion. But if you think benefits and handouts are not having a very negative effect on the working culture in this country, then you are sadly mistaken. And I am not relying on the views spouted by others, as you state, but what I see and experience with my own eyes.

[SWBKCB]

No nothing to do with the EU indeed the concept of Zero hours contract are largely illegal in many of our neighbouring economies
Now as to the working time directive and guaranteed paid holiday entitlement and rudimentary redundancy terms yes they are a problem NOT !

You've just picked out zero hours - for example, freedom of movement created the environment where zero hours could work, and led to wage containment in other ways

[Rutan16]

You've just picked out zero hours - for example, freedom of movement created the environment where zero hours could work, and led to wage containment in other ways
If that were so (it isn’t) why differing effects in France, Germany and others ( caveat Germany did retain some restrictions for a period post accession which GB could have also done) and why the likes of Belgium enforce the three month rule on internal migrants labour ?
There are plenty of tools within the EU freedom of movement rules to control unfettered movement (the so called movement for benefits conditions)
Wage restraints were a domestic industry and indirect government policy within the UK
And what’s more has not fundamentally changed
True Blue here say evidence is not evidence

[SWBKCB]

But it had to exist in the first place to allow the different interpretations, so that makes it a contributor and doesn't make it soley down to the UK government - you can't say its "No nothing to do with the EU", it wouldn't have happened if there wasn't a pool of labour there willing to accept those terms. And yes, wage restraints are something different - not sure why your bringing them up?

[Rutan16]

But it had to exist in the first place to allow the different interpretations, so that makes it a contributor and doesn't make it soley down to the UK government - you can't say its "No nothing to do with the EU", it wouldn't have happened if there wasn't a pool of labour there willing to accept those terms. And yes, wage restraints are something different - not sure why your bringing them up?

Again and finally the EU doesn’t determine wage policy or define contracts beyond those that effect “health and safety” and worker rights .

YOU can not say that a pool of labour effected wages either indeed there has been attempts to analyse this yet none has been able to adequately quantify any effect either way within a acceptable level of error !

Right now are the real wages rising No , indeed they are falling as a result of inflation not seen since I was knee high to a grasshopper!

And taking your example we now have a massive shortage in particular sectors including the aviation sector .Where are the queues of domestic workers lining up for these vacancies - well ?

Have the rates of pay at SWISSPORT / DNATA / DHL and the myriad agencies increased NO and they won’t either, indeed with reduced “burdens” or regulations these employers can be emboldened to maintain their positions imho.

Where there has been upward pressure on rates is mainly in the skilled sectors - For instance I have personal experience in employing an estimator that has seen typical rates of pay rise from £35k to nearer £45k in the last year or so ( plus £8k to an agency ) , however that’s because estimators are in demand and in short supply on a purely domestic basis ( and irrelevant of external pressures)

The blame foreigners is far to simplistic.

Right this is the last of these political diatribes from me and shall we now discuss aviation in the context of Manchester Airport be that route news, development, and employment opportunities.
Or even negative news of potential route closures or note?

[ZULUBOY]

Rutan16, I respect your opinion. But if you think benefits and handouts are not having a very negative effect on the working culture in this country, then you are sadly mistaken. And I am not relying on the views spouted by others, as you state, but what I see and experience with my own eyes.

People have been saying this for most of my lifetime. Apart from some isolated instances it just isn't true.

[ATNotts]

People have been saying this for most of my lifetime. Apart from some isolated instances it just isn't true.
It's only true in the parallel universe inhabited by the usually suspects from the 5th estate.

[Rutan16]

It's only true in the parallel universe inhabited by the usually suspects from the 5th estate.Ha Ha
and so true
Perceptions based on a drip drip of right wing propaganda much subliminal and associated vested interests to hate on the foreigner and distract from domestic policies and continued erosion of EVERY Ones rights and freedoms

Some else’s fault never underused by right :ugh:

[SWBKCB]

Ha Ha
and so true
Perceptions based on a drip drip of right wing propaganda much subliminal and associated vested interests to hate on the foreigner and distract from domestic policies and continued erosion of EVERY Ones rights and freedoms

Some else’s fault never underused by right :ugh:

Glad we are back to Manchester chat and are avoiding political diatribes :ok:

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Ha Ha
and so true
Perceptions based on a drip drip of right wing propaganda much subliminal and associated vested interests to hate on the foreigner and distract from domestic policies and continued erosion of EVERY Ones rights and freedoms

Some else’s fault never underused by right :ugh:
Please take this sort of thing to JetBlast. P L E A S E
https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/647715-uk-politics-hamsterwheel-mk-iv-59.html
https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/471033-eu-politics-hamsterwheel-234.html (https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/647715-uk-politics-hamsterwheel-mk-iv-59.html)

[OzzyOzBorn]

Some quite offensive stuff appearing on here now. The notion that anybody who doesn't embrace hard left politics is some kind of racist inclined to "hate on the foreigner" is patently untrue and has no place in civilised debate. There is a cross-section of political representation on this forum. Please show some respect and tolerance towards those who hold views which differ from your own.

[Rutan16]

Some quite offensive stuff appearing on here now. The notion that anybody who doesn't embrace hard left politics is some kind of racist inclined to "hate on the foreigner" is patently untrue and has no place in civilised debate. There is a cross-section of political representation on this forum. Please show some respect and tolerance towards those who hold views which differ from your own.

I apologise, but in no way for the actions of far right !
The vast majority of the UK people live somewhere in the centre ground to be honest ( me included ) except for our press ( the published media largely owned by an Australian Republican, a family long linked to fascism and a bl***y Russian Oligarch.)

True Blue sorry if I offended your sensibilities

[brian70]

Quick question. My family are flying out next week from the airport and were wondering if you can use Euros airside once through security. I’ve tried looking on the airport website but the chatbot is neither use nor ornament and there are no humans to ask until Monday morning.

[Bbtengineer]

At 10.1% the UK inflation rate is increasing, the only Western European country in double figures and above the EU average. "Employment is full" meaning insufficient baggage handlers, airport catering staff, aircrew and more delays/cancellations 🤣.

The disconnect here is looking at data versus narrative.

If we look at the published UK Employment Participation Rate, it has only been higher in one year out of the last 50. Yes we absolutely have full employment. Fortunately we don’t measure that in baggage handlers we look at the whole economy.

My inflation comment was forward looking. It is far more instructive to look at PPI if you want to see where CPI is heading, especially when people are commenting on 2024. PPI has started to decline. See Office for National Statistics.

The problem with looking at the current narrative rather than directly at the best data is that we are left with the conclusion that because it looks bad now it can only ever get worse.

If that was true, the world would have ended many times over. The really good news is that it didn’t.

[HOVIS]

Some quite offensive stuff appearing on here now. The notion that anybody who doesn't embrace hard left politics is some kind of racist inclined to "hate on the foreigner" is patently untrue and has no place in civilised debate. There is a cross-section of political representation on this forum. Please show some respect and tolerance towards those who hold views which differ from your own.
Is it only me that sees the irony in this post?

[Rutan16]

The disconnect here is looking at data versus narrative.

If we look at the published UK Employment Participation Rate, it has only been higher in one year out of the last 50. Yes we absolutely have full employment. Fortunately we don’t measure that in baggage handlers we look at the whole economy.

My inflation comment was forward looking. It is far more instructive to look at PPI if you want to see where CPI is heading, especially when people are commenting on 2024. PPI has started to decline. See Office for National Statistics.

The problem with looking at the current narrative rather than directly at the best data is that we are left with the conclusion that because it looks bad now it can only ever get worse.

If that was true, the world would have ended many times over. The really good news is that it didn’t.

Mr alarm technician- There is veracity to the decay in inflation in later 2023 however it may well be product of massive DECLINE in peoples spending power and a result of the changed trajectory of under employment to rising unemployment!

Such mechanisms would reduce the inflation rate

There is a reason why typical rates of 4-5 % is the median average unemployment rate , this level squeezes wage rate bargaining by the employees and returns the advantages back to the employers .

Said as much up stream about the handlers .

What isn’t cured is the supply chain issues , the massive decline in sterling , and the primary labour shortages in certain sectors or the matching of the geographic issues previously referred to in the wider economy.

It also doesn’t help those facing excruciating energy cost increases does it ?

[Bbtengineer]

Mr alarm technician- There is veracity to the decay in inflation in later 2023 however it may well be product of massive DECLINE in peoples spending power and a result of the changed trajectory of under employment to rising unemployment!

Such mechanisms would reduce the inflation rate

There is a reason why typical rates of 4-5 % is the median average unemployment rate , this level squeezes wage rate bargaining by the employees and returns the advantages back to the employers .

Said as much up stream about the handlers .

What isn’t cured is the supply chain issues , the massive decline in sterling , and the primary labour shortages in certain sectors or the matching of the geographic issues previously referred to in the wider economy.

It also doesn’t help those facing excruciating energy cost increases does it ?

If you are determined to portray negative outcomes then you will find a way to do it.

With the relationship between employment and inflation you are referring to the Phillips curve and all I will do is note that since this was published it has been debunked by more than a handful of Nobel prize winning economists.

I will stop there. We don’t have to agree.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Is it only me that sees the irony in this post?

Well you do seem to be the only one posting to this effect! 😀

[MARK 101]

In the majority of outlets yes but be prepared to be stung on exchange rate, You are looking at 15-20% loss in value compared to market rate

[MARK 101]

Quick question. My family are flying out next week from the airport and were wondering if you can use Euros airside once through security. I’ve tried looking on the airport website but the chatbot is neither use nor ornament and there are no humans to ask until Monday morning.
In the majority of outlets yes. but be prepared to lose circa 15-20% on the exchange rate compared to market rate

[ATNotts]

In the majority of outlets yes. but be prepared to lose circa 15-20% on the exchange rate compared to market rate
Not sure why you would think of using foreign cash in the UK as you are sure to be ripped off, and surely those Euro notes are best kept for the Eurozone.

Just remember when you are using your bank or credit cards abroad always be sure to opt to pay in local currency, never let the vendor use the Sterling option as you can pay a lot more in Sterling terms.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Just remember when you are using your bank or credit cards abroad always be sure to opt to pay in local currency, never let the vendor use the Sterling option as you can pay a lot more in Sterling terms.

The complicating factor here is that UK card providers then impose a hefty "Non-Sterling Transaction Fee". As customers, we get ripped off whatever we do!

[AndrewH52]

The complicating factor here is that UK card providers then impose a hefty "Non-Sterling Transaction Fee". As customers, we get ripped off whatever we do!

Not necessarily. Depends who you bank with.

[Rutan16]

Not necessarily. Depends who you bank with.

Just throw it out there as a punter, had we joined the Euro you’d just be subject to 0.2% on goods or 0.3% charge on a EU card in another member state anywhere within the zone . No guessing no gambling and no money extraction by banks and fluctuations; still we didn’t so joe public gets fleeced.

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

As others have said could those wishing to discuss "non-aviation" matter please take if to Jetblast?

I keep looking for MAN related news and am getting more disappointed when I discover the new post has, it would appear, little to do with the airport or the airlines and routes being served.

Thank you, I know you are all passionate about our airport so could we keep discussion to that subject?

[MARK9263]

Here Here!

[OzzyOzBorn]

My decision to not rush into advance bookings for leisure air travel this Winter lest they prove more hassle than they're worth is already looking inspired. Crazed politicians in Germany have just extended mandatory bemuzzlement aboard aircraft, inter-city trains and coaches through to April 2023. They're insisting on only high-spec muzzles too. No Christmas Markets booking for me this year, then.

I expect that governments in a number of other jurisdictions will also succumb to irrational panic and indulge the urge to play 'saviour' as Winter approaches. I will limit my bookings to destinations unaffected by this madness. If there are any.

[SWBKCB]

Please show some respect and tolerance towards those who hold views which differ from your own.

Anybody know where the "Manchester" thread is?

[OzzyOzBorn]

If you're referring to my latest post, it doesn't refer to or criticise any individual who has posted on here. It does address the likely impact of new covid restrictions on air travel demand this Winter. I think that's both relevant and fundamentally important to how the airport will perform this Winter. I respect your right to disagree (if you do), but this is a discussion forum and I don't apologise for discussing key issues affecting the season ahead.

[SWBKCB]

You know exactly what you are doing - oh well. :ok:

[ATNotts]

My decision to not rush into advance bookings for leisure air travel this Winter lest they prove more hassle than they're worth is already looking inspired. Crazed politicians in Germany have just extended mandatory bemuzzlement aboard aircraft, inter-city trains and coaches through to April 2023. They're insisting on only high-spec muzzles too. No Christmas Markets booking for me this year, then.

I expect that governments in a number of other jurisdictions will also succumb to irrational panic and indulge the urge to play 'saviour' as Winter approaches. I will limit my bookings to destinations unaffected by this madness. If there are any.
If FFP2 masks being mandatory stops anyone booking its pretty pathetic.

It's also worth pointing out that these German rules will only come into force should case numbers breach agreed thresholds.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

If being compelled to wear a constrained FFP2 mask is mandated on German flights and almost nowhere else, it absolutely will have a commercial impact as consumers know they have similar easier choices elsewhere.
I enjoy North America and am off to JFK in November, I ruled out Canada for this exact reason.

[OzzyOzBorn]

If FFP2 masks being mandatory stops anyone booking its pretty pathetic.

It's not pathetic. They're darned uncomfortable and of questionable efficacy. If I'm travelling for pleasure then they negate the whole point of the trip. I want a vacation, not an ordeal. It's my money. I'm not spending it to re-enter covidworld. I'm not alone in thinking this way. I'll choose destinations where mindless mandates of this sort do not apply. If you're fine with them, make your bookings accordingly. But the potential market size is reduced substantially by measures such as this. This is why German carriers are distraught about this development.

If planning for a (hopefully) undisrupted leisure trip, it is also worth keeping in mind that governments which impose bemuzzlement are simultaneously the most likely to reimpose testing requirements at short notice. So Germany bookings are a NO from me TFN.

[Rutan16]

Cuba Direct holidays and a few smaller brands have clubbed together to operate a new route from Manchester to Cayo Coco and Holguin on a triangle based routing this winter.

They will use a HiFly A339 and operate on Wednesdays until at least May 2023.

Courtesy of Wingtips in another place ( credit his words)

Good to see a Thomas Cook favourite being restored

[azz767]

Quick question if anyone knows. Can 757’s use the contact stands on the far side of the T2 pier?

Its only jet2 that have them now but if they use T2 they either use the older T2 gates or the pier stands on the near side that usually have wide-bodies on.

I know A321’s can and have used the stands on the far side of the pier so would have though 757’s would be ok there.

[roverman]

Quick question if anyone knows. Can 757’s use the contact stands on the far side of the T2 pier?

Its only jet2 that have them now but if they use T2 they either use the older T2 gates or the pier stands on the near side that usually have wide-bodies on.

I know A321’s can and have used the stands on the far side of the pier so would have though 757’s would be ok there.


No, they can't. The stands 101-111 are ICAO 'Code C' for a maximum wingspan of 36m. B757s have a 38m span or 41m with winglets, if I remember correctly.

[azz767]

No, they can't. The stands 101-111 are ICAO 'Code C' for a maximum wingspan of 36m. B757s have a 38m span or 41m with winglets, if I remember correctly.

Thanks

[Jonty]

Thanks

They are far too long as well. The wingtip to tail clearance on Zulu Orange with a A321 parked on the stand is eye wateringly close, never mind a 757!

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

They are far too long as well. The wingtip to tail clearance on Zulu Orange with a A321 parked on the stand is eye wateringly close, never mind a 757!
Interesting, is this a new thing? Zulu Orange and Blue using colours rather than the more intuitive November and Sierra to denote North and South? Any other UK airfield have something similar? Stansted has East, Central and West lines in the aprons.

[roverman]

Interesting, is this a new thing? Zulu Orange and Blue using colours rather than the more intuitive November and Sierra to denote North and South? Any other UK airfield have something similar? Stansted has East, Central and West lines in the aprons.

I had some involvement with this during my time on MAN-TP. Using cardinal points at MAN is problematic because the airfield doesn't sit conveniently on an East-West axis like Heathrow and Gatwick and has a generally more random taxiway layout than Stansted. Blue & Orange sub-centrelines were already established at airports like CDG, MUC, FRA and a few others, so it was decided to follow some existing practice. Furthermore they were adopted by EASA as a recognsed 'means of compliance' during a revision of aerodrome design standards in 2016 or 2017, I forget exactly when. It works well. The same revision also allowed closer clearances between aircraft wingtips and obstacles along taxiway routes.

[Musket90]

Skipness - Stansted has a blue line on Alpha middle. In daylight it helps prevent large cargo types (more than 36m wingspan) allocated stands A1 to A9 inadvertently using the east line which is limited to 36m wingspan due to the adjacent rear of stand road. At night the green centreline lights can be independently selected so the correct line is followed..

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Great info, thanks all! I well remember the problems with Manchester's alignment when Air China Cargo was once told by ATC to push and face "Wythenshawe".

More than once. And then some more. It didn't end well....Utterly lost in translation.

[BA318]

Lufthansa 787 diverting in now.

[Curious Pax]

Lufthansa 787 diverting in now.
A350 actually (Munich-Charlotte LH428)

[BA318]

A350 actually (Munich-Charlotte LH428)

Thanks for the correction. Is it medical? Or tech?

[Curious Pax]

Thanks for the correction. Is it medical? Or tech?

Local chatter suggests medical

[Mr A Tis]

Not sure who handles Iberia these days, but this is a bit of an epic fail. No checked bags loaded on flight MAN-MAD
Flight was Sunday & Iberia say no worries, bags will come on Wednesday.
If you were connecting via MAD I'd be pretty miffed, especially when often checked bags cost more than a passenger seat these days.

https://simpleflying.com/iberia-leaves-luggage-behind-manchester-flight/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox_SF&utm_medium=Social-Distribution&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR11nACdDVWnCoX0i4hyzY-pt1YUSOG6Q80XwavQGhpHv9tz4t0RC_XZJ4A#Echobox=1663251268

[Rutan16]

Not sure who handles Iberia these days, but this is a bit of an epic fail. No checked bags loaded on flight MAN-MAD
Flight was Sunday & Iberia say no worries, bags will come on Wednesday.
If you were connecting via MAD I'd be pretty miffed, especially when often checked bags cost more than a passenger seat these days.

https://simpleflying.com/iberia-leaves-luggage-behind-manchester-flight/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox_SF&utm_medium=Social-Distribution&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR11nACdDVWnCoX0i4hyzY-pt1YUSOG6Q80XwavQGhpHv9tz4t0RC_XZJ4A#Echobox=1663251268 Given it’s an Iberiaexpress flight and the current scheduled has an arrival in Madrid at 2am I am not sure what use it provides as a feeder to mainline at the moment . It immediately also be goes down to 2 weekly for the winter
The quoted press statement says Menzies are the handler as per Partner BA

[HOVIS]

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/seems-like-planes-flying-lower-25031696
It's all kicking off in the suburbs. 😁

[Rutan16]

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/seems-like-planes-flying-lower-25031696
It's all kicking off in the suburbs. 😁 reduced power departure protocol fuel reduction measure one assumes else we got a lot of A340-200s in the circuits

[The96er]

Given it’s an Iberiaexpress flight and the current scheduled has an arrival in Madrid at 2am I am not sure what use it provides as a feeder to mainline at the moment . It immediately also be goes down to 2 weekly for the winter
The quoted press statement says Menzies are the handler as per Partner BA

The schedule is currently 2/weekly. The winter frequency is currently indicating 3/weekly. There’s very few transfer pax travelling due to the time of departure. Most passengers appear to be Spanish nationals travelling home.

[Rutan16]

The schedule is currently 2/weekly. The winter frequency is currently indicating 3/weekly. There’s very few transfer pax travelling due to the time of departure. Most passengers appear to be Spanish nationals travelling home. Thought it was currently three weekly however satisfied if wrong
Agreed on the utterly futile use as a feeder it’s hopeless 😩

[planedrive]

The airport timetable is showing ITA (Alitalia) operating Linate 2x daily from the start of the winter schedule. Does anyone know if this has been announced/is still planned as I would like to make use of it. Thanks in advance!

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

The preliminary ACL report (issued in June 2022) for W22 shows:

Operator Category Description
ITA Airways NEW New twice per day LIN (Milan) with A320, 0850/0940z and 1820/1910z, Terminal 1 allocated.

This is obviously subject to change/confirmation, but it does tally with your information.

[Turtle controller]

With the sad demise of Doncaster now confirmed, would any members like to withdraw their extremely long essays about MAG being incompetent for not chasing the low income cargo traffic booming at Doncaster? It was pointed out numerous times that this traffic was most likely breaking even at best, but a couple of wide body movements a week were enough for some contributors to wade in with paragraph upon paragraph of utter drivel praising the managerial excellence of Doncaster and to contrast this to the bland “run it down” mentality of their MAG counterparts. It’s easy to criticise hypothetical situations which some wallow in, but here we have some absolute concrete evidence of the outcomes of real world decisions taken by MAG not to chase cargo at MAN, and the fantasy armchair CEOs on here pontificating wildly beyond their expertise.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Turtle Controller: Your post is wholly disingenuous and you know it. You are trolling. The arguments in favour of MAN supporting a whole-plane cargo capability were NOT as you state, and I invite you to revisit said "long essays" to confirm that.

Now. About DSA. Why did it really face closure? Because it certainly wasn't because of their modest but welcome cargo operation.

Wizz Air had pledged to establish a base there with four aircraft committed and an eventual ten envisaged. Then they reneged on that deal AFTER Peel had committed a substantial sum to arranging facilities to Wizz Air's liking. Since you are clearly unaware, TC, Wizz Air is primarily a no-frills airline focused on passenger business, NOT CARGO.

FlyBe also established a base at DSA. But then they went bust. A major blow to DSA's business plan. Since you are clearly unaware, TC, original FlyBe was a passenger-focused airline, NOT a whole-plane cargo operator.

In earlier years, both EasyJet and Ryanair were persuaded to give DSA a go. They both pulled out. This was a major blow to DSA. Since you are clearly unaware, TC, EasyJet and Ryanair are passenger-focused airlines, NOT whole-plane cargo operators.

The cargo operation at DSA was a welcome revenue stream but NEVER the raison-d-être of the airport. And that is what it should be at MAN too. Nobody on this forum has argued otherwise.

So DSA presents it's owners with a conundrum. All the no-frills carriers which could reasonably have been pursued by DSA have tried and failed. On more package holiday focused business, they host a stable and successful TUI base, but that is not sufficient to support passenger ops at DSA without considerable throughput by others. Only a handful of low-yield Wizz Air rotations per week use the terminal alongside these. There is little chance of attracting a network carrier such as KLM with the issues ongoing at AMS. Jet2 would be ideal from DSA's perspective, but the carrier itself has it's HQ at nearby LBA where it dominates, it's largest base at MAN and a healthy operation at EMA. They've got the region covered without venturing into DSA.

DSA has other operations onsite including 2Excel Aviation and the NPAS. But their contribution is insufficient to keep the airport afloat either.

But the real problem facing DSA as a perpetual money-pit airport is that the land it occupies is so perfect for profitable alternative uses. I'm guessing - but cannot confirm - that the airport will be considered brownfield land. It is relatively central to England and located adjacent to the M1 corridor. PERFECT for warehousing, logistics, and light industry. Businesses which will ultimately provide the area with substantial secure employment - and not just on a seasonal minimum wage basis which accounts for many of the posts at the existing airport operation. Local councils will make sympathetic noises at this time, but when the outcry dies down they will welcome those new employers and the windfall they bring with open arms. It simply makes economic sense. And DSA as an operational airport simply doesn't.

Finally, Turtle Controller, if you would like to apologise to the regular posters on this thread for your unwarranted and ill-informed attack, feel free to do so any time now.

[bobradamus]

Oh my word, and I had such high hopes.. :ugh:

[Una Due Tfc]

Regarding EI & potentially having A332s based at MAN next year, DUB-YYZ and DUB-SEA are now showing the A332 seat maps for S23 (were A21N & A333 respectively). There are rumours that the final A332 in storage (EI-GEY) might be reactivated also, as well as some near term A339s being acquired. Anyway there will definitely not be two A332s based in MAN unless another is acquired from somewhere as only 3 remain in the fleet, and only 2 of them have crew rests suitable for West Coast US operations (-GEY doesn’t).

[MANFOD]

Regarding EI & potentially having A332s based at MAN next year, DUB-YYZ and DUB-SEA are now showing the A332 seat maps for S23 (were A21N & A333 respectively). There are rumours that the final A332 in storage (EI-GEY) might be reactivated also, as well as some near term A339s being acquired. Anyway there will definitely not be two A332s based in MAN unless another is acquired from somewhere as only 3 remain in the fleet, and only 2 of them have crew rests suitable for West Coast US operations (-GEY doesn’t).

Yes I read that too about the A332's being used for DUB services and it crossed my mind whether it put the EI flights from MAN to the US in doubt for next year. But as you say, S23 is still showing MAN - JFK bookable with the A321NEO and the MCO with the A333. Time will tell I guess. Reports suggested that JFK was doing well even with the narrow-bodied a/c and that while MCO struggled, it did start to pick up in peak season.

[HOVIS]

Latest rumour is that G-EIDY is returning. The A321 will go back to DUB.

[cumbrianboy]

I believe MAN will be 2 x A333 next year, with JFK going onto the A333, the Neo returns to DUB. MCO has picked up and rumour has it BGI selling well over the winter

[MKY661]

Jet2 fully back in Terminal 2 from 8th November

I would imagine they will still have split terminal operations for Summer 2023?

[Atho]

Jet2 fully back in Terminal 2 from 8th November

I would imagine they will still have split terminal operations for Summer 2023?
Im guessing they staying at T2. Ive had an message of Jet2 saying my flight to Greece has been moved to Terminal 2 next summer. This summer Greek flights operated from T1.

[SWBKCB]

Mammoth Freighters LLC (“Mammoth”) is pleased to announce that the company signed a General Terms Agreement with STS Aviation Services (STS) to perform passenger-to-freighter conversions for the Mammoth 777 program. All work will be accomplished at STS’ facility in Manchester, UK, and the multi-year agreement covers both the 777-200LR and 777-300ER aircraft.The STS facility will also provide Mammoth with AOG, product support, and spares provisioning throughout Europe. STS acquired the Manchester facility earlier this year as part of their expansion efforts, and this constitutes their third facility in the UK. Mammoth will begin inducting 777 aircraft for modification at the facility in mid-2024.

Ian Bartholomew, Managing Director for STS Aviation Services, said, “This P2F program assures stability in Manchester from day one and means we can forge ahead, investing in entry-level engineers and trainee schemes giving them development opportunities in the area of major programs and real-life aircraft engineering – when at the same time as taking capacity at Manchester to around 80% within two years of go live.”

https://apnews.com/article/business-orlando-manchester-f93c4a525627a5576bc1a6a86ae57d39

[VickersVicount]

Im guessing they staying at T2. Ive had an message of Jet2 saying my flight to Greece has been moved to Terminal 2 next summer. This summer Greek flights operated from T1.
Not sure you can base it on one destination…

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Do Virgin Atlantic have dedicated flight deck and/or cabin crew based at MAN? And are the cabin crew all cross qualified on B789/A333/A350?

[chaps1954]

We have no 787s operating at Manchester only A330 and a350

[MAN777]

"Which" survey results, oh dear !!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-11356777/The-UKs-airports-ranked-Doncaster-Sheffield-No-1-Manchester-T3-comes-last.html

[SWBKCB]

"Which" survey results, oh dear !!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-11356777/The-UKs-airports-ranked-Doncaster-Sheffield-No-1-Manchester-T3-comes-last.html

As with all these things it depends on what you ask. Exeter is a breeze to get through with short queues etc. shouldn't be hard when arrivals and departures are in single figures each day. No mention of range, frequency or price of flights.

[Una Due Tfc]

Posted on another forum that EIUK MAN-JFK goes from A21N to A333 from 1st May as expected.

The LR showing its usefulness there, building a route and demand relatively cheaply until a bigger aircraft can take over and start reaping the benefits.

[LGWAlan]

and now shown as such in GDS - A333 ops 1435-1720 out and 1905-0705 home EI045 out and 044 home

[TURIN]

7.5 hours on the ground! Menzies will be busy towing that around every day. 😁

[cumbrianboy]

more likely it would alternate with the MCO I'd say ...

[TURIN]

more likely it would alternate with the MCO I'd say ...
Won't the Orlando flight be alternating with the Bridgetown service?

[The96er]

Won't the Orlando flight be alternating with the Bridgetown service?

The BGI route only runs for the winter schedule. The 2nd A330 is intended for the summer 23 schedule.

[Una Due Tfc]

https://twitter.com/spd_travels/status/1586099720245899264?s=46&t=kRGcDeCwmoGc5eRuwFlXsg

The EI 203 MAN-DUB rotation is switching from A320 to 321 next year 5 x weekly also. The 321 is normally only used on Euro routes with lots of TATL connections and high J class demand, mostly LHR, CDG and FCO so far. Interesting that they’re putting fully lie flat J on such a short sector.

in worse news, Airbus have announced the XLR EIS has slipped by at least another quarter to Q2 2024. EI were originally hoping to start receiving theirs Q3/4 2023, now looking more like Q1/2 2025. That might have yet more bearing on the MAN-BOS proposal unfortunately. If demand remains strong, they may acquire more widebodies next year to free up LRs in DUB.

[Asturias56]

"As with all these things it depends on what you ask. Exeter is a breeze to get through with short queues etc. shouldn't be hard when arrivals and departures are in single figures each day. No mention of range, frequency or price of flights."

WRONG - management are paid serious money , and the shareholders make serious money - all they have to do is provide a service. And they fail time after time

Other big airports manage it - why can't places like LHR and MAN?

[SWBKCB]

"As with all these things it depends on what you ask. Exeter is a breeze to get through with short queues etc. shouldn't be hard when arrivals and departures are in single figures each day. No mention of range, frequency or price of flights."

WRONG - management are paid serious money , and the shareholders make serious money - all they have to do is provide a service. And they fail time after time

Other big airports manage it - why can't places like LHR and MAN?

I was coming from the other direction - how easy it is for small airports to appear at the top of these lists. Not making excuses for large airports to fail. It needs to be recognised though that their job is far more difficult

[eye2eye5]

I can’t agree with you on that, SWBKCB.

In all cases, both effective scheduling and passenger satisfaction depend on having:

the right staff
in the right place
at the right time

Now you could argue that larger airports have a greater challenge in having the right staff due to scale, but that’s probably more of a function of terms and conditions. It’s interesting to note that Aldi has just awarded its staff the third pay increase this year. That tells you that the company wishes to retain its best staff, which it has spent time and effort training. Aldi also operates in a highly competitive, price sensitive sector. Perhaps airports should follow their example…..

[SWBKCB]

Now you could argue that larger airports have a greater challenge in having the right staff due to scale, but that’s probably more of a function of terms and conditions

It's not just about T&C's for staff though is it? It's about organisation and infrastructure as well - smaller the numbers the easier it is.

[eye2eye5]

No, the principles remain the same, resource the demand. For larger organisations you may require additional management/supervision but having been taught by American consultants who used the same principles on a car factory, I can assure you that it works.

[Rutan16]

No, the principles remain the same, resource the demand. For larger organisations you may require additional management/supervision but having been taught by American consultants who used the same principles on a car factory, I can assure you that it works.

Still going on about the events of spring and summer - Give it up . Manchester had problems , Gatwick had problems, Birmingham had problems , Heathrow T2 had baggage problems, and T5 also. Dublin and Amsterdam had massive problems whilst Dusseldorf and Berlin also had strikes .

Further away Canada Toronto had queues out the doors.

Of the major EU economies only France got it right imho largely due to their strong labour laws preventing the mass layoffs and the several times I have past through Nantes it’s been a pleasure.

Liverpool was lucky (relatively small workforce in any case) and Exeter has just ONE Tui aircraft based !

Leeds had problems with departures on Jet2 first wave in particular ( couldn’t process baggage )

For the first three months of summer 2022 and as a result of rapid uptake and redemptions at rates completely unexpected, mass layoffs post furlough ( Also the reason for Amsterdams meltdown) the industry was in an almost death spiral.

Add the then recruitment , home office issues with processing CRB and especially enhanced checks ( upto 12 weeks at times) for ALL needing to go airside, onsite training and inductions resulted in the meltdown

A multifaceted and systemic failure occurred .

And simple US management speak could not have resolved this any quicker.

[Asturias56]

But Manchester was considered the worst by the users....................

[dave59]

Shameful. The City of Manchester should order its name be removed from the airport then just flog it to the highest bidder.

[Rutan16]

A limited survey !
I believe they surveyed 40 people at Exeter ( must have been a busy morning ) and about 400 at Manchester and similar at Liverpool .

The extrapolation was flawed . Did Manchester ever have the queues of a mile OUTSIDE ( not those in the multiple car park waiting to check in luggage at TUI desks the lie of the camera )

Again I am not disputing the systemic failures in the industry , just that particular pole with a clear bias - Which poles are notoriously poor and have been for years - consumers poles my **** indeed that survey acknowledges that Which are gaining click per view fees that automatically red flags the research imho.

Nationally they say they surveyed around 7000 , we have no idea at what times and where , what the questions were whether the survey enquired about reason for travel nor the social and economic makeup of those surveyed were.

From an analytical point of view it seems poor to be generous .

[BA318]

The Icelandair 767 in today apparently had a heavy landing causing some ceiling panels and oxygen masks to fall down. The return flight was cancelled and the aircraft needs to be inspected before it can return. There are pictures on social media of the damaged panels inside the plane.

[Asturias56]

"A limited survey ! I believe they surveyed 40 people at Exeter ( must have been a busy morning ) and about 400 at Manchester and similar at Liverpool ."

the statisticians would tell you that 900 people give you a correct answer to around +/- 2%

[Rutan16]

"A limited survey ! I believe they surveyed 40 people at Exeter ( must have been a busy morning ) and about 400 at Manchester and similar at Liverpool ."

the statisticians would tell you that 900 people give you a correct answer to around +/- 2%

yet that low bar doesn’t even appear to have been reached at Manchester across the three terminals
Now we do know T3 is exactly suitable to its design brief but hopeless as a flexible fares terminal and T1 has long over stayed its usefulness Acknowledged by the man from Gatwick now in charge with confirmation of the continued intention to close it soon as funds and T2 reworking allow

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Thinking about T2, do they have modern and effective security scanners or are they are **** as T1 and T3, and if so, when are they getting new ones?

[AvGeek1]

According to @SPD_travels on Twitter, the slot report for S23 shows Thai, Air India, Royal Jordanian and PLAY operating from the airport. If all come to fruition if no changes, could be a good summer for Manchester with these new airlines and routes.

[Rutan16]

According to @SPD_travels on Twitter, the slot report for S23 shows Thai, Air India, Royal Jordanian and PLAY operating from the airport. If all come to fruition if no changes, could be a good summer for Manchester with these new airlines and routes.
Don’t hold your breath for Thai been just around the corner for twenty years !
Air India with BHX resuming near daily , through with TATA and Singapore influence outside chance I suppose.
ALIA maybe just to add to the already crowded ME schedules
Play would ruffle a few feathers down the road if they do through !

[MAN2SIN2BKK2FRA]

[QUOTE=Rutan16;11324486]Don’t hold your breath for Thai been just around the corner for twenty years !

Its 40 years....... There was a rumour of a twice weekly schedule via Stockholm. Thai are coming out of bankruptcy and most of the widebody fleet is still grounded so new route development is unlikely for some time.

[Rutan16]

[QUOTE=Rutan16;11324486]Don’t hold your breath for Thai been just around the corner for twenty years !

It’s 40 years....... There was a rumour of a twice weekly schedule via Stockholm. Thai are coming out of bankruptcy and most of the widebody fleet is still grounded so new route development is unlikely for some time.

Was I being generous saying twenty years then?

[JonnyH]

It appears the Aer Lingus operation isn’t very streamlined from Manchester, at the moment.

G-EILA is stuck in Daytona Beach after smoke filled the cabin coming back from MCO and this has led to CUN being cancelled yesterday and MCO today.

Surely they must have a wet lease back up or a second aircraft to support from DUB?

[pabloc]

It appears the Aer Lingus operation isn’t very streamlined from Manchester, at the moment.

G-EILA is stuck in Daytona Beach after smoke filled the cabin coming back from MCO and this has led to CUN being cancelled yesterday and MCO today.

Surely they must have a wet lease back up or a second aircraft to support from DUB?


Aer Lingus uk don’t fly CUN , also nothing flying in or out of MCO due to Tropical storm Nicolle

[Mr A Tis]

What have they done to 23R ? Lots of holding, go arounds & some diverts out this morning. Been landing 23L most of the day.

[chaps1954]

Pot hole has appeared on 23R therefore 23L in use, aren`t we lucky we have 2 runways otherwise we would have been shut for hours

[UnderASouthernSky]

Aer Lingus uk don’t fly CUN , also nothing flying in or out of MCO due to Tropical storm Nicolle

It was BGI, rather than CUN, which was cancelled - in between the planned MCO arrival and then a further rotation out to MCO.

[JonnyH]

Aer Lingus uk don’t fly CUN , also nothing flying in or out of MCO due to Tropical storm Nicolle

I had CUN on the brain but yes you’re correct, it was BGI.

These cancellations are nothing to do with the weather, G-EILA is on the ground at DAB after a tech diversion.

As I said on my original post, we will see what happens with the further BGI flight tomorrow. Can’t have 1x based A333 and cancel flights for days on end if it goes tech IMO.

[TURIN]

I had CUN on the brain but yes you’re correct, it was BGI.

These cancellations are nothing to do with the weather, G-EILA is on the ground at DAB after a tech diversion.

As I said on my original post, we will see what happens with the further BGI flight tomorrow. Can’t have 1x based A333 and cancel flights for days on end if it goes tech IMO.
The back up aircraft, G-EIDY was returned to DUB and placed back on the Irish register (again) some time ago. Rumour control says its coming back in March, replacing the A321 currently on the MAN-JFK route.
ILA had only just got back on schedule after a lengthy tech issue last week.
I remember someone on these forums saying that a back up aircraft was an unnecessary expense. 🙄

[JonnyH]

The back up aircraft, G-EIDY was returned to DUB and placed back on the Irish register (again) some time ago. Rumour control says its coming back in March, replacing the A321 currently on the MAN-JFK route.
ILA had only just got back on schedule after a lengthy tech issue last week.
I remember someone on these forums saying that a back up aircraft was an unnecessary expense. 🙄

I completely agree. You cannot have a 1 aircraft base with no back up.

Todays BGI also cancelled. Surely they have to be looking at a wet lease from either EI Ireland or Wamos/other providers?

[Una Due Tfc]

Read elsewhere the original plan was to rebook pax via DUB on the MCO & MIA flights but Nicole put paid to that.

They tend to operate without a spare A330 in DUB either. Every year or two something like this happens and us enthusiasts bemoan the lack of spare airframes but I can only assume they have run the numbers and it makes more financial sense to operate as they do by a significant margin. They’re a very lean operator. Another example is the IT system (ASTRAL) which they designed themselves in the 70s. Very difficult to get it to integrate with other systems but it saves them a fortune vs paying Amadeus and the number of failures in 6 decades can be counted on one hand. It also is one reason they aren’t fully integrated into one world and why things like amending a previous paid seat selection can’t be done on the app.

[JonnyH]

Read elsewhere the original plan was to rebook pax via DUB on the MCO & MIA flights but Nicole put paid to that.

They tend to operate without a spare A330 in DUB either. Every year or two something like this happens and us enthusiasts bemoan the lack of spare airframes but I can only assume they have run the numbers and it makes more financial sense to operate as they do by a significant margin. They’re a very lean operator. Another example is the IT system (ASTRAL) which they designed themselves in the 70s. Very difficult to get it to integrate with other systems but it saves them a fortune vs paying Amadeus and the number of failures in 6 decades can be counted on one hand. It also is one reason they aren’t fully integrated into one world and why things like amending a previous paid seat selection can’t be done on the app.

Madness.

The EI UK thread has someone advising they’re subbing in an aircraft tomorrow.

[Mr Mac]

Home tonight no problem no luggage.
Cheers
Mr Mac happy wife ! !

[TURIN]

They tend to operate without a spare A330 in DUB either. Every year or two something like this happens and us enthusiasts bemoan the lack of spare airframes but I can only assume they have run the numbers and it makes more financial sense to operate as they do by a significant margin. They’re a very lean operator.
Yes, but in DUB they have a fleet they can shuffle around to recover lost time. With one aircraft you can't. It literally takes days for it to get back on schedule after a lengthy delay.
Maybe when/if IDY comes back it will make life easier.

[waffler]

I believe its on its way back to Manchester from Daytona beach now.

[Shamrock350]

Until Aer Lingus decide to scale up ops at Manchester, there will always be a risk of issues like this happening. Even with 2 A330s planned next summer, they'll be both working the daily JFK and MCO services so there still won't be any slack in the schedule or spares available. The fact they chose not hire in capacity for the week probably suggests it was easier to rebook passengers on BA/VS and their own services via Dublin.

The A330 winter maintenance has started as well so there may not have been available capacity to take from Dublin with a busy schedule still operating. How they'll cover G-EILA's scheduled maintenance this winter will be interesting!

[Una Due Tfc]

A spare 9 figure asset for a two aircraft base is not very realistic in fairness. That's probably enough to make the base unviable.

[pabloc]

A spare 9 figure asset for a two aircraft base is not very realistic in fairness. That's probably enough to make the base unviable.

Hope not , as they pay my wages 🤷🤦🤪

[TURIN]

Until Aer Lingus decide to scale up ops at Manchester, there will always be a risk of issues like this happening. Even with 2 A330s planned next summer, they'll be both working the daily JFK and MCO services so there still won't be any slack in the schedule or spares available.

There's two hours of slack. One departs at 11:00 the other at 13:00.
Whichever aircraft is behind schedule gets shifted to the later departure. If its a scheduled maintenance issue or tech casualty, that two hours can save the service. As for spares, at the moment they need two different types of everything. EG wheels. With a single fleet type you can reduce the critical items. It's rare the same part needs replacing at the same time on two aircraft.

[Seljuk22]

Norwegian up to 3 times a week to CPH next summer
https://media.dk.norwegian.com/pressreleases/norwegian-lancerer-10-nye-ruter-fra-danmark-og-oeger-antallet-af-afgange-til-populaere-destinationer-i-sommeren-2023-3217921

[Mr A Tis]

Another odd one. Is there really a market for 4 operators on MAN-CPH?

[OzzyOzBorn]

Well it is a wonderful, wonderful place!

But seriously, Norwegian's flights to MAN generally appear timed to optimise weekend break business for Scandinavians visiting the NW for football and shopping. Meanwhile, some of the other carriers on the route operate fewer frequencies than before.

[MAN777]

A family member works in hospitality in Manchester, she says there are loads of Scandinavians present in the city at weekends, they come for the party vibe, cheap drinks and bargain shopping

[Asturias56]

A family member works in hospitality in Manchester, she says there are loads of Scandinavians present in the city at weekends, they come for the party vibe, cheap drinks and bargain shopping

I knew soem Danes in Esbjerg - they could fly to Stansted with Ryanair, have a night in London, shop/go to a match and get home for less than the train fare to Copenhagen

[spacedog]

SIngapore Airlines looks like 5 x weekly from the summer schedule, 3 x transit flights to IAH 2 x terminating flights SIN/MAN/SIN. Shame it is not going daily. Thought there would be enough demand for a daily service.

[HOVIS]

Anyone know why a BA 320 went into the STS hangar today? Casualty or scheduled?

[The96er]

Did one enter today ? I know there’s an A319 arriving tomorrow for maintenance. This should be the first in a series to arrive over the next few weeks. I’m not sure how many are due to arrive in total just yet.

[HOVIS]

Ah, my bad, Chinese whispers and all that. Answers the question though. Scheduled in. I wonder why? BAMG too busy?
​

[The96er]

I’m told it’s due to a shortage of hangar availability. I believe there’s x4 due.

[Seljuk22]

EZY will add a 21st aircraft next summer
https://mediacentre.easyjet.com/story/15639/easyjet-expands-its-base-and-network-at-manchester-airport

[AlwaysWatching1]

Does anyone know if Manchester still has its OWN dedicated route development team. I'm hearing somewhat disturbing news that its now run thru Stansted.

[Mr Mac]

Just heard Manchester is shut due to Snow. My wife is flying back in there on Monday pm, so hence concern, although I know it will be resolved before then but the photos I have seen do not appear to show any depth of snow, is it a de icing issue ?

Cheers
Mr Mac

[BHX5DME]

Just heard Manchester is shut due to Snow. My wife is flying back in there on Monday pm, so hence concern, although I know it will be resolved before then but the photos I have seen do not appear to show any depth of snow, is it a de icing issue ?

Cheers
Mr Mac
MAN has just reopened after being snow closed, BHX taking a fair few divs, SQ359 was coming to BHX but then opted for CDG,

[Mr Mac]

Thanks for the update. Long trip home if you are on the SQ flight.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[Rutan16]

Rapid icing on the pavement one would have thought rather than deep cover, thats far more treacherous and more difficult to deals with .

Airport now open again most diverts have returned , however some short hauls cancelled and Swiss going from Birmingham straight back to Zurich empty as I type this.

The Singapore flight that went down to Roissy was the inbound from Houston whilst the inbound from Singapore dashed and splashed at Heathrow

Both flew over my house in North West London a few minutes apart one at 7000 feet turning base leg and the other at about 31000 feet about to start descent towards the coast and Rouen

[MARK 101]

Given the circumstances,does MAN group offer subsidies such as free or reduced landing fees at other MAN owned airports in cases of diversion,
Surprised they dont do this and offer Stansted or EMA although i suppose the decision is down to the individual airlines

[chaps1954]

It all depends on handling, fuel, transfer of pax if needed, hotels etc crewing( no good to be stuck with no pilots or cabin crew for 12 hours)

[Rutan16]

Given the circumstances,does MAN group offer subsidies such as free or reduced landing fees at other MAN owned airports in cases of diversion,
Surprised they dont do this and offer Stansted or EMA although i suppose the decision is down to the individual airlines

Not how it works in the main. Diversions are organised by the carriers own operations.

Almost all carriers aim for another operating station in the very first instance.

And indeed as happened today some carriers will simply go back home, cue British Airways , KLM, SAS and Lufthansa .

Diverting off of station is a major hassle especially if crews time out and/or your company has no handling or fuel contracts in place.

Outcomes the company emergency credit card if onboard( subject to available credit limits) or it’s on the phone for hours with the accounts team and having to get the supplier to email across a proforma invoice for immediate bank transfer to be made (provided someone senior enough is in the office the authorise payment !)

Then you got to either find ground transfer coaches or hotel accommodation as well.

Finding coaches these days can be another hassle ( there are many fewer companies today than twenty years ago) and further delay and again their pesky proforma will also need immediate payment before coaches and drivers are suitably dispatched

[AlwaysWatching1]

A lot of diversions were handled by Manchester over week end seemingly without problems Do we have a list ?

[DomyDom]

Just been informed by TUI that our flight to Varadero from MAN for 20th March 2023 has been cancelled. Does anyone know why and if TUI have pulled that route for 2023. Really dissapointed! 😔

[ld0595]

Just been informed by TUI that our flight to Varadero from MAN for 20th March 2023 has been cancelled. Does anyone know why and if TUI have pulled that route for 2023. Really dissapointed! 😔

I would think that demand to Cuba has dropped off a cliff now that anyone entering is no longer eligible for the US Visa Wavier Programme.

[SJL26779]

Just been informed by TUI that our flight to Varadero from MAN for 20th March 2023 has been cancelled. Does anyone know why and if TUI have pulled that route for 2023. Really dissapointed! 😔

Are you sure? They are still selling it now?

[toledoashley]

It’s not surprising, after the US when Donald Trump left office labelling Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism. Technically, if you have been to Cuba in the last 10 years, you’ll need a full US visa instead of the ESTA visa waiver - in which case, why would you want to go to Cuba, when Mexico or Dom Rep doesn’t have similar downsides.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Question for the locals, when did Etihad move out of T1?

[DomyDom]

It’s not surprising, after the US when Donald Trump left office labelling Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism. Technically, if you have been to Cuba in the last 10 years, you’ll need a full US visa instead of the ESTA visa waiver - in which case, why would you want to go to Cuba, when Mexico or Dom Rep doesn’t have similar downsides.
Thanks for your thoughts on this. I understand the situation but it's frustrating all the same. Cuba is a fascinating destination and it's a shame for the local economy and people, as well as British travellers if this destination is now effectively out of bounds due to the whim of the ex-US President. I guess that was the intention.

[DomyDom]

Are you sure? They are still selling it now?
I haven't tried another dummy booking yet but usually TUI would just change our dates or times if the destination was still being served. Tui also state in their Email that the decision was as a result of a review of their flying programme for next year.

[CabinCrewe]

when did Etihad move out of T1?
Tue 20th July 2021 along with QR and Brussels Int moving to T2

[c52]

The three-times weekly Kuwait flight is operated more than rarely by an A330 instead of the scheduled A320. Is that a sign that the route is doing well and could grow to more than 3* weekly?

[The96er]

The route has been upgraded to a mix of A330-200/800’s until the remainder of the winter schedule with the exception of Jan1st which is an A320neo. Most of the A330 flights are showing as the 200 variant which has First class, so I’m guessing the sales are going well.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Tue 20th July 2021 along with QR and Brussels Int moving to T2
Thank you!

[SJL26779]

Hi all

Can anyone please advise the AC Due to operate this flight MAN - CUN tomorrow?

A friend has just received an email from TUI to say the aircraft has changed and has been advised there is now no premium on board?

Thanks
Steven

[simoncorbett]

It MAY be the air tanker 330

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

It MAY be the air tanker 330
or could also be Wamos - they often do subs for TUI.

[AlwaysWatching1]

If Emirates US/Manchester existed ?

Would Manchester have a problem with transatlantic services if EK stepped in ?

[SJL26779]

Just been informed by TUI that our flight to Varadero from MAN for 20th March 2023 has been cancelled. Does anyone know why and if TUI have pulled that route for 2023. Really dissapointed! 😔

Are you sure that your original date hasnt been moved to 20th?

TUI have altered the flying programme to a Monday now. The original flights were a Thursday.

[HOVIS]

If Emirates US/Manchester existed ?

Would Manchester have a problem with transatlantic services if EK stepped in ?
Dunno, but they've got a problem at the moment. 😁
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/962x529/_20221219_191639_3e93d2a4216a5971345c7c63cdcce3b2a28b034c.jp g

[AlwaysWatching1]

With Freight 40% down versus EMA and STN does anyone know why MAN are investing in new freight sheds for what is essentially a trucking operation.

Would it not make more sense to build warehousing at say Warrington where rates are much cheaper and use the land to reconfigure the Wythenshawe Freight Village Truck Stop.

[BTNH]

The area is a enterprise zone with same sort of tax deal

[Suzeman]

I understand much of the land over there is no longer owned by MAG

[MANFOD]

Can anyone pinpoint where these proposed new freight warehouses are going to be relative to the road network, or are they replacing some of the existing facilities?
Out of interest, could the land that was disposed of by MAG in theory have been used for additional aircraft parking and apron or was it beyond that area?

[eye2eye5]

I think this article refers, Manfod:

https://www.placenorthwest.co.uk/threadneedle-plots-manchester-airport-sheds/

[MANFOD]

Thanks for the link eye2eye5. An interesting read. I notice that was 14 months ago so I wonder how the project has progressed.

[HOVIS]

Well, the Dnata building is already up and the area for the other two buildings has only just been flattened, rubble still being shifted.

[AlwaysWatching1]

Gosh, following a complaint on another forum about the airports own Book a flight page i tried the option myself.
have to agree its shocking.

Manchester Airport Destinations A-Z | Manchester Airport

The list of destinations is in a completely random order.

If the new MD is reading this, he could do worse than embed the technology from the LGW page.

Booking a destination is nigh impossible, and the navigation is not fit for purpose.

[AircraftOperations]

Gosh, following a complaint on another forum about the airports own Book a flight page i tried the option myself.have to agree its shocking. Manchester Airport Destinations A-Z | Manchester Airport The list of destinations is in a completely random order. If the new CEO is reading this, he could do worse than embed the technology from the LGW page. Booking a destination is nigh impossible, and the navigation is not fit for purpose. ​​​​​​​If you mean Mr. Woodroofe, then isn't he MD of the airport and not CEO?

[AlwaysWatching1]

If you mean Mr. Woodroofe, then isn't he MD of the airport and not CEO?

Yes, Charlie Cornish is group CEO.

[DomyDom]

Are you sure that your original date hasnt been moved to 20th?

TUI have altered the flying programme to a Monday now. The original flights were a Thursday.

I am guessing TUI have axed the Thursday flight, cancelling the 10 day holiday rather than giving us the option of extending our holiday to 14 days. We've now rebooked a holiday to CUN but it would have been nice to have been aware that we could 'rebook' to extend our holiday. It's this lack of information that is especially frustrating for travellers.

[roverman]

Am I right in thinking that we currently have no direct services from Manchester to Pakistan? I haven't seen any Jordan Aviation flights lately, Virgin I assume have ceased, and PIA yet to return to Europe. All traffic must then be going via the MEB3 or Turkish.

[GayFriendly]

Same from BHX - last Jordan Aviation flights were October I think. It seems PIA are funneling pax via IST with TK. Not sure what their status is regarding European flights, I thought PIA were banned from EU and UK?

[SWBKCB]

Pakistan's flag carrier has launched direct flights to Istanbul from the capital Islamabad and the northeastern city of Lahore, the Istanbul Airport operator IGA said Monday.

Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) passengers will be able to travel to 28 destinations in the Turkish Airlines' network thanks to the expansion of the codeshare deal between the two carriers.

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/transportation/pakistans-flag-carrier-launches-direct-flights-to-istanbul

[Rutan16]

PIA - Pakistan International Airlines (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airline/PK) (PK, Islamabad Quaid-e-Azam Int'l (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/6295)) has tendered for a new operator for its flights to the European Union and the United Kingdom from December 2022 until May 2023. It currently charters an A330-200 (https://www.ch-aviation.com/aircraft-data/332) from Jordan Aviation (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airline/JAV) (R5, Amman Queen Alia (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/2455)).
The airline seeks an EASA-certified carrier authorised to serve both the EU and the UK with an aircraft seating at least 250 passengers. While PIA did not specify the aircraft type, the unit has to be of 2004 vintage or younger. It also must not be due for major maintenance checks during the expected duration of the charter contract, unless the operator can provide an equivalent backup aircraft.

The specifications clarify that the bidders must have operated at least five passenger charter flights in the last two years, must have IOSA certification, and must have a fleet of at least five passenger aircraft, including at least two 250 or more seat widebody jets. While the airline would consider single-class aircraft, units equipped with lie-flat or full-flat business-class seats will be assessed higher.

PIA plans to deploy the aircraft on services from Islamabad Quaid-e-Azam Int'l (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/6295) to Manchester Int'l (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/1899), Paris CDG (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/1798), and London Heathrow (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/1892), and from Lahore Int'l (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/3496) to Manchester.

The Pakistani carrier remains banned (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/111998-eu-retains-ban-on-pakistani-carriers-despite-icao-audit) from operating to the EU and the UK due to a scandal over fake pilot licences dating back to 2020. As a result, it is unable to use its growing widebody fleet (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/118973-pakistans-pia-issues-widebody-dry-lease-rfp) on the routes to Europe.

Suffice to say no one has replied to the RFI based the specifications and so services are now suspended.

Contenders would be a choice of Hi Fly or Maleth Aero, however Euroaltantic fleet wouldn’t meet the specifications as printed or resign with Jordan !

Report from CH Aviation

They have however signed a codeshare arrangement with Etihad and another with THY ( in exchange for baby sitting their LHR slots)

I suspect Virgin ( may) has made a mistake suspending their service !!

Usual total mess from PIA management one assumes .

[VickersVicount]

PIA - Pakistan International Airlines (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airline/PK) (PK, Islamabad Quaid-e-Azam Int'l (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/6295)) has tendered for a new operator for its flights to the European Union and the United Kingdom from December 2022 until May 2023. It currently charters an A330-200 (https://www.ch-aviation.com/aircraft-data/332) from Jordan Aviation (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airline/JAV) (R5, Amman Queen Alia (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/2455)).
The airline seeks an EASA-certified carrier authorised to serve both the EU and the UK with an aircraft seating at least 250 passengers. While PIA did not specify the aircraft type, the unit has to be of 2004 vintage or younger. It also must not be due for major maintenance checks during the expected duration of the charter contract, unless the operator can provide an equivalent backup aircraft.

The specifications clarify that the bidders must have operated at least five passenger charter flights in the last two years, must have IOSA certification, and must have a fleet of at least five passenger aircraft, including at least two 250 or more seat widebody jets. While the airline would consider single-class aircraft, units equipped with lie-flat or full-flat business-class seats will be assessed higher.

PIA plans to deploy the aircraft on services from Islamabad Quaid-e-Azam Int'l (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/6295) to Manchester Int'l (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/1899), Paris CDG (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/1798), and London Heathrow (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/1892), and from Lahore Int'l (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/airports/3496) to Manchester.

The Pakistani carrier remains banned (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/111998-eu-retains-ban-on-pakistani-carriers-despite-icao-audit) from operating to the EU and the UK due to a scandal over fake pilot licences dating back to 2020. As a result, it is unable to use its growing widebody fleet (https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/118973-pakistans-pia-issues-widebody-dry-lease-rfp) on the routes to Europe.

Suffice to say no one has replied to the RFI based the specifications and so services are now suspended.

Contenders would be a choice of Hi Fly or Maleth Aero, however Euroaltantic fleet wouldn’t meet the specifications as printed or resign with Jordan !

Report from CH Aviation

They have however signed a codeshare arrangement with Etihad and another with THY ( in exchange for baby sitting their LHR slots)

I suspect Virgin ( may) has made a mistake suspending their service !!

Usual total mess from PIA management one assumes .
Sounds perfect for FlyPop or whatever they were called. Are they still in the land of the living?

[BA318]

Sounds perfect for FlyPop or whatever they were called. Are they still in the land of the living?

Flypop doesn’t meet the criteria at all. Minimum 5 jets with 2 widebodies…

[ATNotts]

Flypop doesn’t meet the criteria at all. Minimum 5 jets with 2 widebodies…

Doesn't have UK AOC or operators license yet either as far as I am aware, and of course couldn't operate in the UK and EU.

[AlwaysWatching1]

Given the pr hype about the new terminal having the capacity to handle 45m pax prebuild, is there ever likely to be a scenario where that is achieved ?

It would have to achieve growth in the order of 50% ?

Currently every stand is full overnight, those units all leave from 6am and comeback during the day perhaps operating in/out 2 or 3 times. That currently gives us circa 27m throughput per annum, but if you cannot bring more aircraft in with more stand space , which you cant, then you are somewhat knackered, its been completely boxed in.

You would be relying on a massive tranche of feed equivalent to 50 based aircraft from an operator such as say WIZZ with a leg up from maybe away based units from the likes of RYR or EZY. But is the airport not light years away from getting anywhere above even 30m if you can fit more aircraft in ? I appreciate you could try and get higher load factors, increase Winter flights, increase night flights but that is all out of the airports hands and in any case somewhat cosmetic.

I cannot see where the massive push will come from to add the missing 15m passengers ?

PS Does anybody know if the airport PR on twitter , facebook etc is outsourced to an off airport agency, if you DM them they never seem to have any technical answers.

[Stockportcounty]

[QUOTE=AlwaysWatching1;11365037]Given the pr hype about the new terminal having the capacity to handle 45m pax prebuild, is there ever likely to be a scenario where that is achieved ?

“Currently every stand is full overnight, “

Really ?

[ImPlaneCrazy]

Currently every stand is full overnight, those units all leave from 6am and comeback during the day perhaps operating in/out 2 or 3 times. That currently gives us circa 27m throughput per annum, but if you cannot bring more aircraft in with more stand space , which you cant, then you are somewhat knackered, its been completely boxed in.


Don't forget the transformation works are far from complete. Although there was the big 'hurrah' with the launch of T2 with it being seen as a shiny new terminal - and that's right, half of it is, but the other half on the East is now undergoing a similar reconstruction which will carry on through to 2025 and add additional piers/capacity. And then after that, I hear there are plans to look at reconfiguring some of the other terminals/aprons.

[Stockportcounty]

AlwaysWatching1 , 12th Jan 2023 19:34
Given the pr hype about the new terminal having the capacity to handle 45m pax prebuild, is there ever likely to be a scenario where that is achieved ?

It would have to achieve growth in the order of 50% ?

Currently every stand is full overnight, those units all leave from 6am and comeback during the day perhaps operating in/out 2 or 3 times. That currently gives us circa 27m throughput per annum, but if you cannot bring more aircraft in with more stand space , which you cant, then you are somewhat knackered, its been completely boxed

At 5 am this morning,, New pier STDs 104 - 112 were bereft of departing flights, barring a solitary KLM 737. that was later accompanied by QR, CX, EY arrivals.

[MANFAN]

Given the pr hype about the new terminal having the capacity to handle 45m pax prebuild, is there ever likely to be a scenario where that is achieved ?

It would have to achieve growth in the order of 50% ?

Currently every stand is full overnight, those units all leave from 6am and comeback during the day perhaps operating in/out 2 or 3 times. That currently gives us circa 27m throughput per annum, but if you cannot bring more aircraft in with more stand space , which you cant, then you are somewhat knackered, its been completely boxed in.

You would be relying on a massive tranche of feed equivalent to 50 based aircraft from an operator such as say WIZZ with a leg up from maybe away based units from the likes of RYR or EZY. But is the airport not light years away from getting anywhere above even 30m if you can fit more aircraft in ? I appreciate you could try and get higher load factors, increase Winter flights, increase night flights but that is all out of the airports hands and in any case somewhat cosmetic.

I cannot see where the massive push will come from to add the missing 15m passengers ?

PS Does anybody know if the airport PR on twitter , facebook etc is outsourced to an off airport agency, if you DM them they never seem to have any technical answers.

Yes, most stands (both contact and remote) have aircraft parked at them each night, but during the quieter winter season not all aircraft are flying each day.
There are now less stands available at the legacy T2 due to the refurbishment work in progress, (I think around 5) but the B gates in the new T2 are dedicated for bussing passengers to their aircraft. I believe there are about 30 (ish) remote stands across T2 and the western/cargo aprons.

Next summer will be interesting as there will be more based aircraft and new services that use T2...

[MANFAN]

Ryanair are basing an additional aircraft this summer (from 16-17?). Which routes will this additional aircraft fly?

I know Ryanair applied for slot to Toulouse from MAN last year, for this coming summer. But even now, there is no flights loaded into the Ryanair app/website, so I can only assume the slots were either rejected or Ryanair now have no plans to serve this route...

[AlwaysWatching1]

True but 7 or 8 stands will be filled in another 8 weeks or so as the summer season kicks in but that will be a cosmetic difference will it not ?

Plus the new stands on another pier will surely make things worse. You can can utilise a lot more aircraft on an apron than you can on a pier covering the same apron area ?

So riddle me how we get to 30m let alone 45m?

Adding yet another pier whilst excellent for the customer experience makes utilisation of space worse ?

We seem to be getting tighter and tighter on space rather than matching capacity to increasing demand ?

[MANFAN]

True but 7 or 8 stands will be filled in another 8 weeks or so as the summer season kicks in but that will be a cosmetic difference will it not ?

Plus the new stands on another pier will surely make things worse. You can can utilise a lot more aircraft on an apron than you can on a pier covering the same apron area ?

So riddle me how we get to 30m let alone 45m?

Adding yet another pier whilst excellent for the customer experience makes utilisation of space worse ?

We seem to be getting tighter and tighter on space rather than matching capacity to increasing demand ?

I'm not sure what your trying to say here ref the amount of stands.
This link shows the airfield maps and stand allocations, slightly out of date now as around 4/5 of the T2 legacy stands are now out of use due to the refurbishment works in progress.
https://www.tasmanchester.com/airportinfo

But we know that from this summer, there will be a lot more bussing passengers to stands from T2 with TUI and Jet2 in particular, due to the loss of the contact stands in T2 and the yet to be finished second pier (Pier B).
Pier B at T2 today is for bussing passengers (B gates), but the second phase of this pier will include aircraft parking stands.
And finally, the third pier (Pier C) will include (at the moment) two A380 capable stands, along with other narrow body and widebody stands.

T1 will then close. I expect T3 to have some improvements made, including an extension...so after all this (predicated around 2028/29) we might see close (ish) to 35-40 million passengers? I'm sure 45m is further away that this decade...but that's just my thinking...

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Aer Lingus A330 EI-EDY seems to be working out of MAN for Aer Lingus UK at the moment. Been based since 9th-Jan, I thought that sort of cover wasn't permissable post Brexit? Or is it strictly time limited?
Is it UK based crews or Dublin fleet operating?

[Rutan16]

Not only the 330 but also the 321 Ei- LRE is currently in use on the New York rotation as well.

[SWBKCB]

Aer Lingus A330 EI-EDY seems to be working out of MAN for Aer Lingus UK at the moment. Been based since 9th-Jan, I thought that sort of cover wasn't permissable post Brexit? Or is it strictly time limited?
Is it UK based crews or Dublin fleet operating?

Can be approved in the short term - look at Wamos/Neos etc operating for TUI over the summer

[pabloc]

Aer Lingus A330 EI-EDY seems to be working out of MAN for Aer Lingus UK at the moment. Been based since 9th-Jan, I thought that sort of cover wasn't permissable post Brexit? Or is it strictly time limited?
Is it UK based crews or Dublin fleet operating?

Dublin crewed 👍🏻

[Stockportcounty]

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/future-thgs-manchester-airport-plans-25992615.amp

[Brewster Buffalo]

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/future-thgs-manchester-airport-plans-25992615.amp

Being reported that this firm is planning to shred jobs following a poor profit forecast.....

https://www.ft.com/content/7088cb2f-b099-4096-9a8f-971b483dbf17

[HOVIS]

Not only the 330 but also the 321 Ei- LRE is currently in use on the New York rotation as well.
G-EIRH has just returned.

[eggc]

Easyjet are adding MAN - ORY with 5 weekly flights from March 27 in addition to their CDG service,.

[ImPlaneCrazy]

SNOCLO this morning and plenty of diversions.

EI JFK went to BHX
CX HKG went to LHR
QR DOH went to BHX
EI BGI went to DUB
VS ATL on its way to LHR/LGW
VS BGI holding over Liverpool
EK DXB holding over Doncaster

[BHX5DME]

SNOCLO this morning and plenty of diversions.

EI JFK went to BHX
CX HKG went to LHR
QR DOH went to BHX
EI BGI went to DUB
VS ATL on its way to LHR/LGW
VS BGI holding over Liverpool
EK DXB holding over Doncaster



BHX had QR 77W, EY 77W, EK 388, EIN 21N

[SCFC1EP]

Read for a laugh

the Consumer Choice Center has unveiled the results of its first annual European Airport Consumer Index, highlighting the top 10 airports in Europe in terms of their ease of use for passengers. We have all the details of the top 10 and we find out

This is the first index of its kind in Europe, and aims to inform both consumers and managers as to which airports best accommodate passengers. The top 10 best airports in Europe for passenger ease of use are as follows:


Brussels Airport
Zurich Airport
Düsseldorf Airport
Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport
Manchester Airport
Copenhagen Airport
Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
Stockholm Arlanda Airport
Frankfurt am Main Airport
Munich Airport

[cumbrianboy]

That list must have the wrong title, surely MAN makes it into the 10 worst airports, in fact I'd say it is THE worst airport I have ever used!

[pabely]

Must be they most generous airports wine & dining the right people league?

[VickersVicount]

SNOCLO this morning and plenty of diversions.
Wonder if you asked general public if MAN invested in more and better snow clearing infrastructure and diverted limited funds from eg security queues what they might complain of next?
Perhaps a visit to Innsbruck or Salzburg how to manage (very well predicted) short lived 1-2” of snow ?

[chaps1954]

That list must have the wrong title, surely MAN makes it into the 10 worst airports, in fact I'd say it is THE worst airport I have ever used!
Since management changes all running pretty well except with IT outage the other day which can and does happen anywhere Obvious you don`t use many airports cumbriaboy
because i can think of many a lot worse.

[Mr Mac]

Read for a laugh

the Consumer Choice Center has unveiled the results of its first annual European Airport Consumer Index, highlighting the top 10 airports in Europe in terms of their ease of use for passengers. We have all the details of the top 10 and we find out

This is the first index of its kind in Europe, and aims to inform both consumers and managers as to which airports best accommodate passengers. The top 10 best airports in Europe for passenger ease of use are as follows:

Brussels Airport
Zurich Airport
Düsseldorf Airport
Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport
Manchester Airport
Copenhagen Airport
Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
Stockholm Arlanda Airport
Frankfurt am Main Airport
Munich Airport



Well I used most of those last year and I would query Manchester and Brussels being in the list. I have not been to Düsseldorf for a while so could not comment on that one. I used Copenhagen a lot during Covid as it was the easiest way home from Munich and quite liked it however there were very few passengers. I use Munich almost weekly and rate it highly though as using LH we use the new terminal and I hear LCC terminal is not so good. However Manchester being in the list is a little unbelievable given the issues they appear to have on a regular basis, snow this morning I see again.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[OzzyOzBorn]

It is difficult to comment without knowing the methodology used. However, Manchester is like three airports in one with all three terminals offering a completely different customer experience from each other. It is entirely possible to have a good journey departing from T2. I also find T3 a pleasant space at quieter times when it is not rammed. T1 is unlikely to win any accolades for departures. In the case of incoming passengers, all three terminals are capable of offering a very quick and painless arrivals experience, and they frequently do. Customers appreciate that and will mark accordingly. I've had far more good experiences using MAN than bad ones since covid restrictions were listed. We're all familiar with the regular issues, but the important stuff usually works. They just need to replace or re-apply barcodes to those ancient trays at security which consistently "fail to scan". Really frustrating when you've prepared everything correctly yet still get delayed by one of those.

[Rutan16]

Whilst many here and on other sites (oft visited by the same people to be honest) frequently complain about the retail mazes , the general public *my wife and daughter very much applaud the experience and MAG deliver with spades.

Spring and early summer 2022 are long gone and security is much improved.

One thing through MAG certainly demands being part of the government initiatives and requires the latest scanning equipment soonest.

However we know the former transport minster has his own favoured bases (greasing his pocket down the West Country ) Someone rhyming with Brant Capps

[TheSpiddalKid]

Whilst many here and on other sites (oft visited by the same people to be honest) frequently complain about the retail mazes , the general public *my wife and daughter very much applaud the experience and MAG deliver with spades.

However we know the former transport minster has his own favoured bases (greasing his pocket down the West Country ) Someone rhyming with Brant Capps


I believe he also goes by the aliases Michael Green, Corinne Stockheath and Sebastian Fox. In all seriousness, I travel through T3 about twice a month and much of the waiting now in security is down to people not being ready at security and taking an inexorable amount of time to organize themselves, have their liquids in a dingle bag, take shoes and belts off and have items ready to place in a tray then queue to go through the scanners.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Wonder if you asked general public if MAN invested in more and better snow clearing infrastructure and diverted limited funds from eg security queues what they might complain of next?
Perhaps a visit to Innsbruck or Salzburg how to manage (very well predicted) short lived 1-2” of snow ?

I'll keep this brief because most users of this site will be familiar with the following. The temperature at MAN this morning was in the region of 0 to -3C. When snow falls in this temperature range, it is wet snow which rapidly turns slushy and can then freeze. If it is projected upwards onto metal surfaces by aircraft undercarriage it tends to freeze instantly. This is THE most dangerous snow state from an aviation perspective, and airports including MAN are absolutely correct to not 'wing it' under such conditions (excuse the pun) - it has to be 'safety first' every time. They actually did a very good job getting the airport reopened in the timescale they did this morning.

As for citing airports such as Innsbruck and Salzburg, two factors come into play. Much of their snowfall is dry ('powder') snow which is less dangerous to aviation and much easier to deal with. You can get rid of alot of it with blowers, as it doesn't adhere to surfaces in the way wet snow does. Powder snow can also be compacted into a decent braking surface under certain circumstances. Finally, at airports which receive frequent and substantial snowfall - both of those airports you mention serve popular winter sports regions - it is more viable financially to invest in additional expensive snow clearing equipment. How many days over an average Winter see such equipment required at MAN? And even then, is it for afew hours like today, or for the whole H24?

[cumbrianboy]

Since management changes all running pretty well except with IT outage the other day which can and does happen anywhere Obvious you don`t use many airports cumbriaboy
because i can think of many a lot worse.

Well my job is to travel through airports everyday .... Manchester generally has the worst security I ever experience (OK maybe some developing countries maybe worse) but on a like for like basis, MAN is hats off the worst.

[Mr Mac]

Whilst many here and on other sites (oft visited by the same people to be honest) frequently complain about the retail mazes , the general public *my wife and daughter very much applaud the experience and MAG deliver with spades.

Spring and early summer 2022 are long gone and security is much improved.

One thing through MAG certainly demands being part of the government initiatives and requires the latest scanning equipment soonest.

However we know the former transport minster has his own favoured bases (greasing his pocket down the West Country ) Someone rhyming with Brant Capps
Rutan16
I agree security has improved, but it is the general rundown nature of things there which to me is the things that make me get upset, as it is not an expensive thing to fix, it’s just good maintenance. If you look after things they some what surprisingly don’t break down so often.

As for Duty Free it seems ok to me, though I do not spend much time in it unless I am looking for something specific that I know will be cheaper in there than UK or German high streets.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[SWBKCB]

Whilst many here and on other sites (oft visited by the same people to be honest) frequently complain about the retail mazes , the general public *my wife and daughter very much applaud the experience and MAG deliver with spades.

A much derided part of the airport experience by people who frequent these sort of places, but less so by general public. Used to work with a woman who only part in jest said "a holiday doesn't start till I've got a new handbag!" - and she liked her holidays (and her handbags... :rolleyes:).

Might not make sense to us, but it does to a lot of people.

[Mr A Tis]

Over the last month have passed through MAN, CPH, AMS and 5 airports in Thailand & Indonesia multiple times. As often happens at MAN my carry on selected for secondary screening, nothing in it-but never gets stopped anywhere else. All the other airports- no requirements to take out liquids or electronics -(except power banks) as all have tech that does not require removal of stuff.
AMS this morning so super friendly, quick & helpful through security on a transfer.
Arrived MAN 30 minutes late (due de-icing at AMS) gate not ready & then 180 pax left locked in airbridge corridor as the door to the terminal locked. Car park barriers jammed too.
As MAC says, maintenance is not what it could be to keep things running, the slightest hiccup causes major disruption.
Skimped on minor T2 items, there are a number of new gents toilets that have anything from 5 to 10 wash basins- but most have only 2 hand dryers. If you presume a need for x number of wash basins then there must be an optimum need for dryers. Minor stuff but it shows the mindset in play.
Anyway it has been a pleasure & delight to travel through so many airports recently & Manchester isn't anywhere near the top at any level.- far from it.

[SWBKCB]

Skimped on minor T2 items, there are a number of new gents toilets that have anything from 5 to 10 wash basins- but most have only 2 hand dryers. If you presume a need for x number of wash basins then there must be an optimum need for dryers. Minor stuff but it shows the mindset in play.

Can't say I keep detailed records, but isn't that the normal sort of ratio in public toilets?!?

[BA318]

Over the last month have passed through MAN, CPH, AMS and 5 airports in Thailand & Indonesia multiple times. As often happens at MAN my carry on selected for secondary screening, nothing in it-but never gets stopped anywhere else. All the other airports- no requirements to take out liquids or electronics -(except power banks) as all have tech that does not require removal of stuff.
AMS this morning so super friendly, quick & helpful through security on a transfer.
Arrived MAN 30 minutes late (due de-icing at AMS) gate not ready & then 180 pax left locked in airbridge corridor as the door to the terminal locked. Car park barriers jammed too.
As MAC says, maintenance is not what it could be to keep things running, the slightest hiccup causes major disruption.
Skimped on minor T2 items, there are a number of new gents toilets that have anything from 5 to 10 wash basins- but most have only 2 hand dryers. If you presume a need for x number of wash basins then there must be an optimum need for dryers. Minor stuff but it shows the mindset in play.
Anyway it has been a pleasure & delight to travel through so many airports recently & Manchester isn't anywhere near the top at any level.- far from it.

I’d say that’s fairly normal. Heathrow T2 had fancy mirrors with the hand dryers underneath but very quickly most were broken and never fixed leaving just one hand dryer for 10 cubicals and urinals.

[AircraftOperations]

https://mediacentre.manchesterairport.co.uk/mag-announces-440m-investment-in-final-phase-of-13bn-manchester-airport-transformation-programme/

[SWBKCB]

Loved the MEN's headline...First glimpse inside Manchester Airport's planned new T2 with 27 shops, bars and restaurants

[OzzyOzBorn]

We may be cynical, but that is exactly what a large proportion of airport passengers want to see!

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

We may be cynical, but that is exactly what a large proportion of airport passengers want to see!
You really think that *GIVEN THE CHOICE* like say at award winning (high fees) London City, that they'd rather not just turn up later, whiz through efficient security and be on their way sharpish? BAA changed the whole business model on it's head with shopping as incremental revenue and as a result, they want you to spend your time in their shopping malls. To remain competitive, everyone does it, but remember there's no choice not to use this model due to the competition. People "want to see shops" cos they're forced to turn up early and are relieved they is some distraction.

But LCY being niche and physically constrained cannot do this and the passenger experience is considerably better, and before anyone asks, it's not nearly as business traveller focussed as it once was.

[SWBKCB]

You really think that *GIVEN THE CHOICE* like say at award winning (high fees) London City, that they'd rather not just turn up later, whiz through efficient security and be on their way sharpish? BAA changed the whole business model on it's head with shopping as incremental revenue and as a result, they want you to spend your time in their shopping malls. To remain competitive, everyone does it, but remember there's no choice not to use this model due to the competition. People "want to see shops" cos they're forced to turn up early and are relieved they is some distraction.

But LCY being niche and physically constrained cannot do this and the passenger experience is considerably better, and before anyone asks, it's not nearly as business traveller focussed as it once was.

No - lots of people 'want to see shops'. It's part of the journey, it's the start of the holiday. Just like lots of people want to eat or have a beer.

[ATNotts]

No - lots of people 'want to see shops'. It's part of the journey, it's the start of the holiday. Just like lots of people want to eat or have a beer.
Clearly there's a large enough segment of the travelling public that wants the 'Retail Experience', personally I detest it.

[Mr Mac]

ATNotts
Duty Free is a prerequisite of financing an airport and more so if you are reliant on tourism. London City is very niche, but is used by some none business traveler’s but I would say the volumes are lower than Manchester overall massively.

Manchester just feels rundown and a little under maintained which I have to say is a UK problem, but it is managing to export this elsewhere sadly.

Cheers
Mr Mac

[SWBKCB]

Manchester just feels rundown and a little under maintained which I have to say is a UK problem, but it is managing to export this elsewhere sadly.

The new British disease, cakeism - "the wish to have or do two good things at the same time when this is impossible" i.e. have a high quality airport experience while paying a low fare.

[Rutan16]

Reuters have reported that airport operators have had their knuckles slapped for breaching competition and Data protection act
The Competition and Markets Authority and CAA apparently sent a letter to the operators telling them to review their practices and that they and their employees must comply with the competition laws
No individual operators were named however directly
Given MAG are the largest operator of multiple facilities each sort of dedicated and numerous comments here and elsewhere let’s see if this relates to cross selling - Switch selling of freight and flexible fares business is the real reason
Perhaps an airline has snitched !

[ZeBedie]

Is it true that T1 will be demolished when the building work is complete? And if so, what is planned for the land currently occupied by T1?

[OzzyOzBorn]

I'm starting to fear that S23 will be 'just OK' versus S22 rather than stellar. The programmes of the four main short-haul based carriers will be crucial. We need healthy growth from Ryanair, EasyJet, Jet2 and TUI. On long-haul, we already know that Virgin is a huge disappointment. Aer Lingus UK will upgauge one of the two based aircraft giving a respectable capacity increase. There is only one new name expected for S23 - a modest programme to Turkey by Southwind Airlines (if it goes ahead). And set against that, we've already lost one carrier in the form of FlyBe 2.0.

EasyJet has confirmed an extra based aircraft, taking their total to 21. And I believe that they will all be A320/A20N - no smaller A319's - so they're doing their bit. Jet2 and TUI are both mature operations focusing on leisure routes. I expect them to offer broadly similar programmes to S22. That's good, because they're both big players at MAN, but I don't anticipate substantial growth from them - especially if we're in a recessionary environment. What Ryanair do will be crucial. The most recent ACL report suggested a sixteenth based aircraft (+1) and a substantial increase in programmed flights. But the concern is that the programme on sale so far doesn't tally with that scale of growth, and whilst several other airports (including near neighbours) have seen press releases announcing additional based aircraft, MAN has not. One of my analyst friends [credit: MANFOD] even suggests that the MAN programme currently on sale looks like a reduction from S22. Hope not - but we need a positive announcement from Ryanair VERY SOON. If Ryanair don't grow their Summer programme from MAN, we must expect overall growth to flatline - at a level way below 2019 figures.

Post-covid air travel resumed in earnest in March 2022. Once the February stats are in (should be massively up) we start to see year-on-year comparisons where the difference will be much more marginal. S22 saw a huge wave of travel voucher redemptions as customers finally made long-postponed trips. That has largely worked through the market now. The success of S23 relies on totally new bookings coming in during a period of elevated economic stress.

Taking a broad overview, Southwind Airlines is (potentially) a new but low frequency addition. But more than offsetting that, it looks like Corendon Airlines will operate a smaller programme than last year. There are NO other new names expected at this stage. MAN's scheduled programme to the US is in the pits - covid aside, bumping along at a level not seen here in 20 years. Every Virgin announcement seems to be another cutback, US carriers are focusing on cities favoured by US-domiciled tourists (ie. not MAN). The only modest increase is the Aer Lingus UK upgauge of one based aircraft. SIA frequency to Houston is reduced. TUI serves Florida as before. Capacity to the Caribbean has not been backfilled from the Thomas Cook days, and US-instigated restrictions hitting travel to Cuba have hurt MAN as well. We do have operations to the Caribbean and Mexico, but not on the scale of S19. There is still nothing to Western Canada; Eastern Canada has crept back thanks to Air Transat. Air Canada has once again opted for a minimalist peak-Summer operation only - very underwhelming commitment as usual from them.

Traffic through the Gulf region has been a highlight. The third daily Emirates A380 will boost the stats as it works through the calendar; Qatar Airways looks back to full strength too. Etihad remains once daily; no sign of the second daily being restored. Welcome contributions from Saudia, Kuwait Airways, Gulf Air too. Add to these increased capacity through the twin Istanbul hubs of THY and Pegasus. BUT, BUT ... we mustn't overlook the elephant in the room here. All those passengers who used to board around ten high-density B777's per week to Pakistan have had to be absorbed onto those aforementioned carriers. So whilst the capacity on those Gulf routes is back, the composition of seat sales has changed. There is less capacity available for destinations in SE Asia and Australasia. And don't forget we also had Oman Air pre-covid. No sign of them resuming. Jet Airways was never backfilled; traffic to India must use one-stop options over the UAE or Istanbul as well. Thank goodness for Bangladesh Biman!

Direct services to the Far East are weak. Singapore Airlines is the bright-spot, hopefully thriving and increasing capacity to Singapore (but reducing frequency to Houston). Cathay has been throttled by covid rules only very recently lifted. Hopefully bookings can now come back in volume for them. Hainan - whilst welcome - is a token low-frequency operation, a shadow of its heyday. Rumoured new names such as Thai International and Juneyao won't be seen at MAN in S23.

Ethiopian to Addis via Geneva is a rare gem in MAN's African network. Carriers formerly seen on MAN schedules including EgyptAir, RAM, Air Arabia Maroc and Nouvelair Tunisie should be wooed again by MAG. Likewise El Al to Tel Aviv. EasyJet is doing fantastic business on that route ... just what do El Al need to see before they resume?

Meanwhile, the Baltics and Eastern Europe are overshadowed by the proximity of total war. The tragedy playing out there pushes all aviation concerns discussed here into complete insignificance, but this is the airport forum and we must stick to topic. There is no prospect of services to Moscow or Minsk in the foreseeable, and a resumption of Kyiv (and formerly announced Odesa) services is not feasible.

So I am cautious re S23. Strong points are UAE / Arabian Gulf, Türkiye, Spain. Weak points are USA, Caribbean, Western Canada, Baltics / Ukraine, SE Asia (except Singapore), non-stop Pakistan and India. Also domestic UK, though this is a multi-layered story. Northern Ireland, IOM, Channel Islands, Newquay all look strong. Services to London and (mainstream affordable) Southampton are capacity-starved. Edinburgh, Glasgow, Exeter, Norwich and Southend are amongst recent destinations no longer served from MAN. EasyJet has dropped their two Scottish routes to Aberdeen and Inverness, Loganair continues on these. Scottie Dog's stats show domestic pax down 43.3% year-on-year ... the loss of FlyBe and the reallocation of BA's LHR slots to other routes ex-London account for most of that pain. Though MAN's terrible on the ground offer for domestic - international interline doesn't help one bit. Getting domestic carriers transferred into T2 with state-of-the-art supporting transfer facilities should be an absolute top priority in my view. We need to scrape afew more fossils off Mr Cornish's wallet before its too late to recover this business.

The next ACL update for S23 is expected soon. The first thing I'll be looking at is the Ryanair programme. If it shows a reduction (catastrophe), watch out below. If it's a modest increase, pax totals for MAN as a whole should see cautious progress. Substantial Ryanair increase ... we can dream! But if you're holding out for a boom year, your expectations may need to be scaled back.

[SWBKCB]

After the issues last summer, maybe a period of consolidation isn't a bad thing.

[MANFOD]

I'm starting to fear that S23 will be 'just OK' versus S22 rather than stellar. The programmes of the four main short-haul based carriers will be crucial. We need healthy growth from Ryanair, EasyJet, Jet2 and TUI. On long-haul, we already know that Virgin is a huge disappointment. Aer Lingus UK will upgauge one of the two based aircraft giving a respectable capacity increase. There is only one new name expected for S23 - a modest programme to Turkey by Southwind Airlines (if it goes ahead). And set against that, we've already lost one carrier in the form of FlyBe 2.0.

EasyJet has confirmed an extra based aircraft, taking their total to 21. And I believe that they will all be A320/A20N - no smaller A319's - so they're doing their bit. Jet2 and TUI are both mature operations focusing on leisure routes. I expect them to offer broadly similar programmes to S22. That's good, because they're both big players at MAN, but I don't anticipate substantial growth from them - especially if we're in a recessionary environment. What Ryanair do will be crucial. The most recent ACL report suggested a sixteenth based aircraft (+1) and a substantial increase in programmed flights. But the concern is that the programme on sale so far doesn't tally with that scale of growth, and whilst several other airports (including near neighbours) have seen press releases announcing additional based aircraft, MAN has not. One of my analyst friends [credit: MANFOD] even suggests that the MAN programme currently on sale looks like a reduction from S22. Hope not - but we need a positive announcement from Ryanair VERY SOON. If Ryanair don't grow their Summer programme from MAN, we must expect overall growth to flatline - at a level way below 2019 figures.

Post-covid air travel resumed in earnest in March 2022. Once the February stats are in (should be massively up) we start to see year-on-year comparisons where the difference will be much more marginal. S22 saw a huge wave of travel voucher redemptions as customers finally made long-postponed trips. That has largely worked through the market now. The success of S23 relies on totally new bookings coming in during a period of elevated economic stress.

Taking a broad overview, Southwind Airlines is (potentially) a new but low frequency addition. But more than offsetting that, it looks like Corendon Airlines will operate a smaller programme than last year. There are NO other new names expected at this stage. MAN's scheduled programme to the US is in the pits - covid aside, bumping along at a level not seen here in 20 years. Every Virgin announcement seems to be another cutback, US carriers are focusing on cities favoured by US-domiciled tourists (ie. not MAN). The only modest increase is the Aer Lingus UK upgauge of one based aircraft. SIA frequency to Houston is reduced. TUI serves Florida as before. Capacity to the Caribbean has not been backfilled from the Thomas Cook days, and US-instigated restrictions hitting travel to Cuba have hurt MAN as well. We do have operations to the Caribbean and Mexico, but not on the scale of S19. There is still nothing to Western Canada; Eastern Canada has crept back thanks to Air Transat. Air Canada has once again opted for a minimalist peak-Summer operation only - very underwhelming commitment as usual from them.

Traffic through the Gulf region has been a highlight. The third daily Emirates A380 will boost the stats as it works through the calendar; Qatar Airways looks back to full strength too. Etihad remains once daily; no sign of the second daily being restored. Welcome contributions from Saudia, Kuwait Airways, Gulf Air too. Add to these increased capacity through the twin Istanbul hubs of THY and Pegasus. BUT, BUT ... we mustn't overlook the elephant in the room here. All those passengers who used to board around ten high-density B777's per week to Pakistan have had to be absorbed onto those aforementioned carriers. So whilst the capacity on those Gulf routes is back, the composition of seat sales has changed. There is less capacity available for destinations in SE Asia and Australasia. And don't forget we also had Oman Air pre-covid. No sign of them resuming. Jet Airways was never backfilled; traffic to India must use one-stop options over the UAE or Istanbul as well. Thank goodness for Bangladesh Biman!

Direct services to the Far East are weak. Singapore Airlines is the bright-spot, hopefully thriving and increasing capacity to Singapore (but reducing frequency to Houston). Cathay has been throttled by covid rules only very recently lifted. Hopefully bookings can now come back in volume for them. Hainan - whilst welcome - is a token low-frequency operation, a shadow of its heyday. Rumoured new names such as Thai International and Juneyao won't be seen at MAN in S23.

Ethiopian to Addis via Geneva is a rare gem in MAN's African network. Carriers formerly seen on MAN schedules including EgyptAir, RAM, Air Arabia Maroc and Nouvelair Tunisie should be wooed again by MAG. Likewise El Al to Tel Aviv. EasyJet is doing fantastic business on that route ... just what do El Al need to see before they resume?

Meanwhile, the Baltics and Eastern Europe are overshadowed by the proximity of total war. The tragedy playing out there pushes all aviation concerns discussed here into complete insignificance, but this is the airport forum and we must stick to topic. There is no prospect of services to Moscow or Minsk in the foreseeable, and a resumption of Kyiv (and formerly announced Odesa) services is not feasible.

So I am cautious re S23. Strong points are UAE / Arabian Gulf, Türkiye, Spain. Weak points are USA, Caribbean, Western Canada, Baltics / Ukraine, SE Asia (except Singapore), non-stop Pakistan and India. Also domestic UK, though this is a multi-layered story. Northern Ireland, IOM, Channel Islands, Newquay all look strong. Services to London and (mainstream affordable) Southampton are capacity-starved. Edinburgh, Glasgow, Exeter, Norwich and Southend are amongst recent destinations no longer served from MAN. EasyJet has dropped their two Scottish routes to Aberdeen and Inverness, Loganair continues on these. Scottie Dog's stats show domestic pax down 43.3% year-on-year ... the loss of FlyBe and the reallocation of BA's LHR slots to other routes ex-London account for most of that pain. Though MAN's terrible on the ground offer for domestic - international interline doesn't help one bit. Getting domestic carriers transferred into T2 with state-of-the-art supporting transfer facilities should be an absolute top priority in my view. We need to scrape afew more fossils off Mr Cornish's wallet before its too late to recover this business.

The next ACL update for S23 is expected soon. The first thing I'll be looking at is the Ryanair programme. If it shows a reduction (catastrophe), watch out below. If it's a modest increase, pax totals for MAN as a whole should see cautious progress. Substantial Ryanair increase ... we can dream! But if you're holding out for a boom year, your expectations may need to be scaled back.

Thank you Ozzy for your analysis as to how you see S23 working out. It is a very salient point that the ME carriers have been boosted by the loss of PIA services to MAN compared to pre-covid. Nevertheless, it is one segment of the market where there is cause for optimism compared to the state of affairs to the US.

CX as far as I can tell from their website appear to be operating 4 x weekly in mid - summer. Not the daily we had become used to, but with the tight covid restrictions that were in place for so long and political situation in HK, a reasonable frequency is certainly acceptable.

I agree the programmes of the Big 4 short haul carriers and how well that seat capacity is taken up will be crucial in terms of MAN's performance this coming summer measured against 2019. As regards Ryanair, a brief but by no means detailed analysis did indicate some concern. The initial ACL report showed SHL (Historic) slots of 25,502 for FR and RK combined. If that represented slots from S22, then the latest information available of 28,659 slots at 31 Jan'23 (handback date) is in fact an increase. But that is significantly lower than the 35,064 slots for S23 in the initial ACL report which mentioned an increase in based a/c from 15 to 16 as you say. From a trawl through Ryanair's website for MAN departures on Friday, 14 July, I could only find a maximum of 14 based a/c needed for the first wave. That is only 1 day and there did appear a higher proportion than normal of flights with away based a/c on that particular day. It was also noted that a new route originally planned to Toulouse does not appear in the list of French destinations. So it's very much conjecture at this stage and we'll have to see what the updated ACL report reveals. However, as Ozzy remarks, it is noticeable there has been no official Ryaniar press release regarding MAN's S23 programme so far.

Aviation is of course a competitive industry with airlines fighting for slots at LHR and other airports keen to win new business, and develop growth with new routes and higher frequencies from existing carriers. MAN's relative performance in S23 against 2019 will have to be measured against other airports such as BHX, STN and LGW even though the mix of traffic and passengers at those airports may vary.

[OzzyOzBorn]

After the issues last summer, maybe a period of consolidation isn't a bad thing.

Those well-publicised issues were very much concentrated across the March to May timeframe. Back then, our endlessly helpful politicians had declined to offer the industry a roadmap to post-coronapanic reopening, so the announcement of the end of PCR testing requirements at very short notice wrongfooted the industry generally. MAN needed to recruit in a hurry (alongside many others) and the bottleneck in gaining clearance for airside security passes to be issued caused carnage. I believe that issue is under control now. Handling agents at MAN have also been addressed by the new CEO with a view to ensuring more resilient staffing levels for S23. Operators such as TUI which also suffered badly have another year of recruitment and training under their belt now.

I would suggest that the airport should now be capable of coping with further growth following a generally trouble-free late Summer and Autumn 2022. Whether or not we actually get healthy growth is another conversation entirely!

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

Great to see some detailed analysis on here - long may it continue.

[MKY661]

EasyJet has confirmed an extra based aircraft, taking their total to 21. And I believe that they will all be A320/A20N - no smaller A319's - so they're doing their bit

That's interesting if true! I believe they had 4x A319 in Su22 and 3x in Su19 but don't quote me on that!

[inOban]

If it helps, FR announced an additional route (Rhodes) from EDI about two weeks ago. They then announced the final S23 schedule last week, and I think that they are working their way round their bases in turn - Glasgow in a day or two, for example. Gets maximum publicity, I guess

The extra EDI frame is providing additional rotations to their existing routes. So, unless they've announced new routes from Manchester, there probably won't be any, and the extra frame will be used to increase frequencies.

[LFC22]

Had a dropoff at T2 few days ago, just seen the newly built Holiday Inn and Ibis Budget right next to it, as well as another hotel called Tribe being built. This is in addition to Clayton, Doubletree, Radisson Blu and Premier Inn. Surely this is overkill?