Manchester-3

[Navpi]

I didn't suggest the SAS flights would come to Manchester.
The forwarder is using the most convenient airport for that particular type of shipment.

I was simply making the point that there are no issues re equipment, staffing, or resources, at Birmingham, East Midlands , Doncaster or Liverpool.

Not sure what "spotting" has to do with it ?

[The96er]

Why do we have to keep revisiting this same subject. The forum is becoming a one issue forum. The reasons have been given - several times. Time to move on.

[DP.]

Problem is that everytime MAG try and divert airlines and "revenue" opportunities to EMA it backfires. Yesterday saw two ETIHAD cargo freighters in Doncaster at the sametime.


There is so much comment on these Manchester threads about how MAG are only interested in the bottom line. If their strategy regarding freight in recent years is costing them a significant volume of profit as you suggest, you'd think an organisation with such a focus on the bottom line would do something about it, wouldn't you?

[BHX5DME]

166,002 down 90.91%

But second only to Heathrow with 746;954

Luton - 106,894
Gatwick - 101,945

CAA Stats - Stansted not included

[TURIN]

SWBKCB

A viable covered maintenance facility. IE a hangar.

[BHX5DME]

December 2020 Pax

Manchester – 248,451 down 87.4%

Stansted – 198,291 down 90.1%

East Midlands – 15,065 down 92.7%

2020

Stansted – 7,543,779 down 73.2%

Manchester – 7,037,036 down 76.0%

East Midlands – 899,756 down 80.8%

Cargo

East Midlands – 46,320 up 43.5%

Stansted – 23,136 up 18.8%

Manchester – 4,693 down 46.6%

[Mayfield62]

MAG must be pleased with those cargo figures. It appears the group strategy is working.

[ATNotts]

I don't know about a "strategy" to push cargo to EMA and STN, which is I think what you are driving at.

Most of the additional tonnage through EMA appears to be on the DHL network, along with the other integrators that use EMA as a hub. When it comes to ad hoc additional movements, by the look of it they are going to non-MAG facilities such as DSA, LPL, BHX and the like. Because of the MAG business model at Manchester I really can't see them ever having wanted to attract DHL, UPS or Fedex/TNT to build a major hub their, such as exists at EMA and to a lesser extent, Stansted, as it could seriously impinge on capacity for the core business at Manchester - passenger traffic which will build back over time.

[chaps1954]

ATNotts how very true, there were no parking spaces at all the other day due several reasons so where Mayfield expects all those cargo 747s to park

[Navpi]

Those cargo figures for Manchester are dire, the limited mainline carriers left who carry underbelly capacity are QATAR, ETIHAD and EMIRATES, given they are losing corridor status means any cutbacks could result in zero uplift from anywhere.

Cargo connectivity will have totally evaporated.

It doesnt exactly chime with the platitudes on the MAG world Freight Terminal Page. I appreciate these are dated but even so.

Let's hope those carriers KEEP providing uplift even with no passengers or Manchester will have no freight throughput at all. That would be nothing short of scandalous for the airport which by it's own admission describes itself as a "global gateway".

Surely manufacturing, distribution , NHS, etc need some capacity in the middle of a pandemic ?

[ATNotts]

Navpi

Please join the real world.

The growth in air cargo is primarily in the express parcel / integrator sector. They don't need flights into every airport, as they use hubs and their network of local depots served road trunkers. Aside of a few direct services from the like of MAN, BHX, LTN & LHR they tend to use primarily EMA and STN in England with the former serving Scotland and NI with domestic feeders.

Much of the traditional air freight through airports such as MAN is trucked to major hubs, LHR in UK, but also CDG, AMS, LUX and FRA. How the latter changes as a consequence of Brexit remains to be seen. Investing money in capacity to handle pure freight operations at MAN, BHX etc isn't going to be a business priority, rescuing PAX business most certainly will be.

[SWBKCB]

Surely manufacturing, distribution , NHS, etc need some capacity in the middle of a pandemic ?

Any evidence that there is any shortage of capacity anywhere?

[OzzyOzBorn]

THG (The Hut Group) said there was. But they've gone very quiet lately.

[TURIN]

Lots of rumours around that MAN is closing overnight again from 5pm tomorrow. Anyone seen anything official?

[PinOnTheRight]

Rumours of closing completely overnight, or inline with the below NOTAMs?

A0208/21 - SCHEDULING OF DEPARTING PASSENGER FLIGHTS WILL ONLY BE PERMITTED
BTN 0700-1700 (tel:0700-1700) DUE TERMINAL SECURITY OPERATING HOURS. SCHEDULED
INBOUND PAX PERMITTED BTN 0401-2200 (tel:0401-2200). THIS RESTRICTION DOES NOT
AFFECT THE FOLLOWING:
1. ACFT IN STATE OF EMERGENCY
2. CARGO FLIGHTS
3. TECHNICAL LANDING
4. PRIVATE FLIGHTS
5. FERRY FLIGHTS.
EXCEPT ACFT IN EMERGENCY THE EXEMPTED FLIGHTS ARE TO SEEK
PRE-AUTHOURISATION (PPR) FROM THE AD OPERATOR TEL+44 (0) 161 489 (tel:(0) 161 489)
3331. AIR OPERATORS MUST ENSURE GROUND HANDLING SUPPORT IS AVBL AT
ALL TIMES. 20 JAN 00:01 2021 UNTIL 15 FEB 23:59 2021. CREATED: 15 JAN 16:37
2021

A0207/21 - SCHEDULING OF DEPARTING PASSENGER FLIGHTS WILL ONLY BE PERMITTED BTN 0530-2300 (tel:0530-2300) DUE TERMINAL SECURITY OPERATING HOURS. SCHEDULED
INBOUND PAX H24. THIS RESTRICTION DOES NOT AFFECT THE FOLLOWING:
1. ACFT IN STATE OF EMERGENCY
2. CARGO FLIGHTS
3. TECHNICAL LANDING
4. PRIVATE FLIGHTS
5. FERRY FLIGHTS.
EXCEPT ACFT IN EMERGENCY THE EXEMPTED FLIGHTS ARE TO SEEK
PRE-AUTHOURISATION (PPR) FROM THE AD OPERATOR TEL+44 (0) 161 489 (tel:(0) 161 489)
3331. AIR OPERATORS MUST ENSURE GROUND HANDLING SUPPORT IS AVBL AT
ALL TIMES. FUEL AVBL 0400-2200 (tel:0400-2200). 15 JAN 16:31 2021 UNTIL 19 JAN 23:59 2021. CREATED:
15 JAN 16:34 2021

[Brewster Buffalo]

Also Terminals 2 & 3 to be closed.

[The96er]

Terminals 2 and 3 have been closed for some time now.

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

The NOTAM has been updated:

Q) EGTT/QFALT/IV/NBO/A/000/999/5321N00217W005
B) FROM: 21/01/15 16:31C) TO: 21/01/19 23:59E) SCHEDULING OF DEPARTING PASSENGER FLIGHTS WILL ONLY BE PERMITTED
BTN 0530-2300 DUE TERMINAL SECURITY OPERATING HOURS. SCHEDULED
INBOUND PAX H24. THIS RESTRICTION DOES NOT AFFECT THE FOLLOWING:
1. ACFT IN STATE OF EMERGENCY
2. CARGO FLIGHTS
3. TECHNICAL LANDING
4. PRIVATE FLIGHTS
5. FERRY FLIGHTS.
EXCEPT ACFT IN EMERGENCY THE EXEMPTED FLIGHTS ARE TO SEEK
PRE-AUTHOURISATION (PPR) FROM THE AD OPERATOR TEL+44 (0) 161 489
3331. AIR OPERATORS MUST ENSURE GROUND HANDLING SUPPORT IS AVBL AT
ALL TIMES. FUEL AVBL 0400-2200

[RoyHudd]

It is a bit surprising to see both EK and EY operating in and out of MAN today, when all direct flights to the UAE were supposed to cease at 1300L on Friday 29/01/21. Any thoughts?

[BHX5DME]

Freight only inbound but I think pax ok outbound too.

[RoyHudd]

Makes sense.

[TURIN]

Qatar reducing services too. A350 back in place of the B787 for the rest of the week.

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

As I understand it the B788 has 253 seats whilst the A359 offers 283. On that basis, assuming the frequency stays the same - which i don't know the answer to - then there is no reduction.

[BristolexFlyer]

SkyUp to Kiev supposedly from June.

[RoyHudd]

Serious question: is MAN turning into a Covid super-spreader? T1 is now so rammed with incoming and departing pax that many people are having to queue outside in the freezing weather. Crowds are known to be a major risk-factor for infection.

Meanwhile the staff on the front-line are not being given priority vaccinations for protection. This is not a rumour, it is a serious issue that needs addressing.

[TURIN]

Sioltach Dubh Glas

The frequency hasn't stayed the same. Some of the QR21/24 and QR22/23 flights have been removed/cancelled. Not sure how long for.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Meanwhile the staff on the front-line are not being given priority vaccinations for protection. This is not a rumour, it is a serious issue that needs addressing.

The order in which UK citizens are to be vaccinated has been placed at the discretion of a committee of medical / epidemiological experts, remote from direct interference by political interests. Their brief is to enable the maximum possible preservation of life. This is exactly the way things should be done. The most vulnerable will be inoculated first, regardless of profession. So a clinically vulnerable airport worker / bus driver / supermarket worker will be vaccinated as a priority anyway, but a fit 20yo will not. And there are plenty of "invisible" professions which are exposed to elevated risk too: how often do we pause to think about those keeping our sewers functioning or emptying our bins? We could spend months debating who should be front of the queue for the jab.

Keep in mind that the NHS holds records of our date of birth and comprehensive medical history. Under the current system, that is the data they need to organise a successful super-efficient vaccination programme. And that is what we're seeing ... getting on for 500K inoculated each day. But start complicating this with demands by fringe interest groups that particular sets of workers should be prioritised, and suddenly the NHS has to collect employment data and disrupt everything to a massive degree ... all to accommodate early jabs for fit and healthy young adults ahead of those at far greater risk. The current system is absolutely spot-on. Keep virtue-signalling politicians and agenda-led pressure groups well away from this.

many people are having to queue outside in the freezing weather.

If this is so then it is a valid concern and you are right to highlight it. There is nothing sensible about forcing people to queue outside in freezing wet February weather on the pretext of 'protecting their health'. If we want to fill our hospitals with flu and pneumonia cases (never mind C-19) this is the perfect way to go about it. Never forget that this is peak season for colds and more serious respiratory viruses generally. We must be careful not to blindly subject the traveling public to a substantial known risk in the name of protecting them from a less-likely new one. Vulnerable people die from pneumonia too. MAG should attend to accommodating passengers in a warm, dry space in the depths of Winter.

[AndrewH52]

RoyHudd

Is this really the case? Looking at FR24 Manchester has had eight arrivals so far today (up to 15:15). I can’t see a circumstance where that level of arrivals would result in people queuing up outside (apart from ground staff going awol and not opening doors in time).

also all arrivals now have to have a negative PCR test to travel so not sure how that turns into a super spreader event?

[UnderASouthernSky]

Queues outside the terminal?

My first question would be: are they all passengers or are some them seeing people off/meeting arriving passengers? Many airports are currently requesting that non-travellers remain out of their terminals.

My second question would be: how many of these people are there for essential reasons anyway, be they passengers or friends & family? How efficiently are people's reasons for being at UK airports being checked?

[RoyHudd]

People, just see for yourself. It really is a problem.

[rotorwills]

Well there are queues outside vaccination centres. Plenty of video evidence in recent days shown on media.

[Mr A Tis]

Maybe I missed it, but easyJet new S21 route from MAN:
Kos twice weekly June- October
Enfidha twice weekly June- October
Newquay 3-5 times a week June-October

All appear bookable.

[Mr A Tis]

I notice that if you fly in from the current "Red List" countries, where mandatory hotel quarantine is required, you can only enter the UK via Heathrow, Gatwick, London City, Farnborough or Birmingham. Unfortunately, at this time arrival via Manchester is not allowed.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/booking-and-staying-in-a-quarantine-hotel-when-you-arrive-in-england

[BHX5DME]

January 2021

MAN – 127,638 down 92.8%

STN – 104,477 down 94.5%

EMA – 4,802 down 97.5%

12m rolling

STN – 5,745,700 down 79.6%

MAN – 5,388,648 down 81.7%

EMA – 713,989 down 84.7%

Cargo

EMA – 32,777 up 9.2%

STN – 23,173 up 48.4%

MAN – 3,879 down 51.5%

[pwalhx]

For context it would be interesting if you would include Birmingham for comparison in future.

[BHX5DME]

BHX don't issue their pax numbers anymore, you have to wait for the CAA to produce them otherwise I would

[Navpi]

Quarantine Policy or not as the case may be.

Yes the Warmington On Sea Platoon have stuck again......

An airport with no services is on the list but the busiest outside London isnt.

Either Whitehall has not a clue about how large Manchester is (likely) or they are being vindictive after Andy Burnham totally embarrassed them last year (equally likely). They probably think he runs the airport, that's how out of touch they are re airport policy.

Am I jumping the gun or are the words "I have a cunning plan marching with ill deserved confidence in the direction of this initiative" ?

Credit Lord Blackadder

Ps One might have assumed that the MAN CEO would be apoplectic, and all over the media by now, we live in hope.

[Albert Hall]

Have you considered that this situation might have arisen as a matter of MAG CEO’s choice rather than Government doing the dirty on MAN? Wait and watch.

[inOban]

But surely there aren't at present any flights from red list countries into Manchester?

[Navpi]

Maybe not direct but quite possibly on connections.

[inOban]

But you will be escorted to a quarantine hotel at your first airport. Or are you still thinking of the Dublin dodge?

[Rutan16]

Navpi

How many people from the North West even know of Paraguay or French Guiana ,or Eswatini ?

The Red List does include Portugal (Flights suspended and frontier with Spain closed ) and the UAE (Emirates passenger flights already suspended ) yet Etihad still flying -THIS EITHER STOPS come Monday or there will be a need to introduce a quarantine for this particular service.

Alternative routes are also closed off; primary connection point Amsterdam flights have been suspended for some weeks (By the Dutch authorities)

Just Air France and Swiss possibilities for perhaps a dozen global connections a week!

Frankly this RED List is something of a sop to the right wing media.

Even in normal times the majority of South America illicites pretty marginal traffic flows to and from the UK; similarly the Sub Saharan African routes

Just South Africa, Portugal and the UAE are significant and ALL those have flights suspended anyway.

Its too little too late, as we have come to expect with the shambles of an administration we have to endure for 4 more years !

[MARK 101]

Quite possible no hotels at Manchester would sign up to be used . Given the situation in Australia where some hotels used to accommodate travellers , now have their own mini outbreaks it might not be a totally bad decision

[Navpi]

Well last time I looked there were no flights to BHX from Paraguay so pray tell what the thinking is to even include BHX ?

Dont forget there were some misguided civil servants who thought Birmingham might be the answer to London capacity, I appreciate things have changed but it does give scale to the outdated mind set.

Whitehall is stuck in the 60s whilst the rest of the World has moved on .

[Rutan16]

Not this old chestnut the Garda and GB border force share FULL disclosure of passenger manifests across the CTA and have done for many many years

Route through Dublin go land side and the Eire travel restrictions are enforced, connect onto the UK and you will be subject to the English or Scottish restrictions - Indeed make a false declaration and your going to be screwed.

Other than Lisbon where would you consider a possible market to use this dodge anyway.

Its not as through Dublin has an extensive range of long haul itself right now - 3 Aer Lingus US east coast, and a daily UA to Newark Air Canada to Toronto (where entry restrictions already exist at levels that make our red list laughable)

[Rutan16]

Navpi

Yes it does smell of Whitehall’s lack of understanding of just how large Manchester can be to some extent, probably aren’t even aware of Ethiopian or the ME3 or indeed the multiple flights to Pakistan that continue to operate ( albeit Emirates having suspended passenger flights at the moment)

[OzzyOzBorn]

Frankly this RED List is something of a sop to the right wing media.

Ah, so this is a right wing thing??? Those MP's considered the most right wing of the current compliment are the ones calling loudest for society to be opened up. The most ardent calls for the world to be locked down and borders closed indefinitely are coming from other quarters. Perhaps it is wise to look with more impartiality to dilemmas of this sort, rather than automatically blaming "the right wing" for any things you may disapprove of.

Whatever the reasoning may be, it will be interesting to learn why the busiest UK airport outside London (and in the immediate term, second busiest in the UK) is excluded from these quarantine hotel plans at present.

How many people from the North West even know of Paraguay or French Guiana ,or Eswatini ?

Probably a similar proportion as you would find amongst Londoners?

[TURIN]

Is it possible for pax to transit through Doha from UAE?
Not sure what the political situation is at the moment.

[Navpi]

Maybe the phone call from Whitehall went to the cargo team.......

[Rutan16]

OzzyOzBorn

Its classic of Bojo behaviours and said its a sop read as wrote - Not that the ERG, Lord Sumption and their Talk Radio mates are advocators; they are anything but , however listen to the narrative of many of the right wing (modern working classes) and xenophobic close the borders rhetoric, this is designed to sooth their ears.

Eswatini (Swaziland) has a small but vibrant expat community in South London; however !

Others (with no political power or influence) have been calling on government to introduce genuine quarantine systems for months and months landing on deaf ears. Indeed the government knows full well they have a challenge due to massive understaffing in the border agencies right now.

Realistically ALL arrivals should be quarantined properly or don’t bother .

Don’t infer from my writings I am some sort of COVID denier that would far from the truth - My own niece a healthy 23 year old has been suffering Long COVID symptoms for 9 months , and my wife is a nurse on the Front line in the NHS working in North London.

My criticism isn’t the red list per say either, no more rather the political spin on this shortly to be imposed compulsory scheme delivered to the populous as something it isn’t -a fundamental closure of the frontiers.

[Rutan16]

TURIN

No transit via Dubai from India and no onward connections as with a few exceptions little inbound passenger traffic allowed at the moment.

[BA318]

Rutan16

You realise pretty much anyone flying in, even if not on the red list has to be tested before departure, then pay for two more tests while quarantining (£210) and if they did test to release would pay and be tested again. That’s 4 tests in a week. Yet I go to Tesco and half the store are face mask exempt, touching everything and having a chat.

We now have some of the toughest rules in place. As for your attempt to pin it on the “right wing” it’s anything but. Most of the right wingers are calling for things to be opened up.

[inOban]

It's no wonder that you have had so many cases. I can't remember when I last saw anyone in our supermarkets not wearing a mask, even quite young children.

[ericlday]

In Oban.....Face masks are mandatory here in Tenerife when in supermarkets and are policed by security guards, so people do obey. Resulting in decreasing infection rates on the statistics. Now back to Manchester folks.....

[Rutan16]

BA318

Yes I do and thats what a few weeks and only after our neighbours introduced similar requirements, and far too late imho

[Rutan16]

BA318

Just gave you that above Talk Radio, Sumpton and co - these are just as dangerous

[Rutan16]

BTW i have cancelled all my travel for the foreseeable. Including accessing my OWN home in Portugal, seeing my daughter in Nantes and business trips planned to Munich, and Badajoz

[TURIN]

Rutan16

What I mean is, is it possible for people to arrive in Doha, from a red list country and then travel on to UK? Not necessarily using air travel.

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

From todays Independent:

Manchester airport (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/manchester-airport-0), currently the second-busiest in the UK after Heathrow, is excluded.

A spokesperson for Manchester said: “We continue to work closely with the government to understand how the managed quarantine policy might be implemented, and the process for handling ‘red list’ passengers while travelling through our airport.”

[Rutan16]

TURIN

If you somehow are referring to a land bridge of sorts well that’s what the declaration is to cover I suppose even through Paris Brussels and across the Channel. Risk it and the penalty is rather heavy isn’t it ?

[Rutan16]

You are committing an offence with a maximum penalty of ten years irrespective of the routes via third or even fourth countries.

[Rutan16]

Qatar , Saudia, Fly Dubai and Egyptair flights from and to Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have resumed

[Navpi]

Sioltach Dubh Glas

Anyone know what the alternative is ?

[BHX5DME]

I assume they would have to be taken to the BHX hotel - as it is the nearest ?

[pwalhx]

In my local supermarket I rarely see anyone without a mask, and security are stopping people at the entrance who dont have masks to put them on.

[SWBKCB]

Same here - I've seen one couple, and they stuck out like a sore thumb.

[GrahamK]

Navpi must be pleased with the recent increase in cargo flights from Manchester too :ok:

[Navpi]

Ecstatic Mr K.

Manchester 48% down
Stansted 51% up

Interesting correlation there. Almost exact !
Coincidence?

Given naysayers here suggesting there is no money in freight STN must be absolutely seething that they having to deal with all that extra cargo that's not making them any money.

[commit aviation]

Navpi
Without expressing an opinion either way on how MAG manage cargo, I think the maths assumes the same starting base which appears to be incorrect.
MAN is down 51.5% to 3879 suggesting a starting point around 7900 - a loss of c4000
STN is up 48.4% to 23173 suggesting a starting point 15600 - a gain of c7550

[easyflyer83]

Christ, who’s poked the lions cage again?

[southside bobby]

About to point out the basic mathematical flaw in Navpi`s post too quite apart from the commercial realities & major differences driving the MAN & STN cargo markets.

Unfortunately posting & drawing attention to individual figures in this case to promote an "argument" is reflecting as they say "a statistical fallacy"...so yes the % figures are a coincidence.

[STN Ramp Rat]

I have sat quietly on the side lines but will now jump in with the blindingly obvious. Manchester's cargo in primarily belly freight on passenger aircraft, with the reduction in flights the cargo tonnage has gone down. Stansted's cargo is primarily main deck freight from the likes of Fedex, DHL and others. With the reduction in passenger flights more cargo has moved from passenger aircraft to freighters and the freight carriers that operate at Stansted have added services. this same reduction in passenger flights has meant slots for cargo have been opening up at Heathrow allowing ad-hoc flights that would previously have routed through Stansted to route via Heathrow..The pandemic has disrupted the cargo market as much as the passenger market.

[southside bobby]

Understand that some ad-hocs (at least at the start of the pandemic) were denied access to STN firstly with lack of authorised HOTAC & with a lack of staff outside of the long standing contracts handling.

[ETOPS]

Synthetic Jet A1 at MAN?

https://mobile.twitter.com/SPD_travels/status/1361349624330678274

[Mr A Tis]

EUROWINGS to start BHX & MAN to Palma
https://newscloud.eurowings.com/en/2021-1/q1/eurowings-enters-british-leisure-travel-market.html

[TURIN]

MAN to close overnight after 21:00hrs on 15th March.
Don't know how long for.
Anybody else heard anything?

[PinOnTheRight]

Both runways are NOTAMed as unavailable overnight between 2100-0700L daily between 15th March and 15th April.

[seahawks]

Pin is correct, one month of complete night closure from 15/3. Reviewed on 12/4.

[chaps1954]

Sounds like terminal closed as open for biz, freight and diversions

[AndrewH52]

Sorry chaps1954, AD closed overnight as per Notam below

A0829/21 NOTAMN
Q) EGTT/QMRLC/IV/NBO/A /000/999/5321N00217W005
A) EGCC B) 2103152100 (tel:2103152100) C) 2104150600 (tel:2104150600)
D) MAR 15-MAR 26 2100-0700 (tel:26 2100-0700), MAR 27 2100-0600 (tel:27 2100-0600), MAR 28-APR 14 2000-0600 (tel:14 2000-0600)
E) RWY 05L/23R AND RWY 05R/23L NOT AVBL. AD NOT AVBL FOR DIVERTED
TRAFFIC

[poppiholla]

rumours of an airline applied for flights MAN - USA (multiple destinations) in 2021 ... any idea which one ?

[CWL757]

Aer Lingus

[chaps1954]

Could these runway closures be something to do with all taxiway work that seems to be happening as many of the links seem to be closed tonight.

[BHX5DME]

https://live-webadmin-media.s3.amazonaws.com/media/9375/february-2021.xlsx

[BHX5DME]

Feb Pax

MAN = 79,408 down 95.5%

STN = 34,967 down 98.1%

EMA = 255 down 99.9%



Rolling 12m pax

STN = 3,903,227 down 86.1%

MAN = 3,688,509 down 87.4%

EMA = 519,779 down 88.8%



Feb Cargo

EMA = 34,053 up 23.6%

STN = 19,832 up 51.9%

MAN = 4,174 down 41.8%

[CWL757]

Apologies if I've missed it, but does anyone know the EWG schedule for PMI please?

[Navpi]

Interesting proposals from the FT today in terms of destinations that might be dooable for the summer.

If we do have another summer write off i cannot see how the industry can survive, airlines, airports don't have inexhaustible reserves and i suspect most calculations were based on being back to a level of normality by now.

Hopefully Manchester will capitalise on A TO A destinations where countries at either end are all vaccinated, the US springs to mind if that country reaches a certain critical level.

Dubai is at 74% so may also be reasonable.

Israel as well although it doesn't have the mass market infrastructure.

Singapore also offers hope.

Hopefully MAN are not just sat there "hoping for the best" but are actively scrutinizing these figures, putting forward proposals and talking to Whitehall and the airlines that could potentially fill the gaps in terms of direct service ....and DIRECT service is key.

It will be interesting to see what strategy the government employs and what the board at Manchester is actually doing to ensure it fits into that jigsaw.

Manchester currently has no US service so who are they talking to in terms of rebuilding what was one of the largest markets in Europe after LHR, CDG, FRA and AMS.

Aer Lingus is a good start, the Virgin/Delta axis is another.

Fundamental change is coming, clearly it has to be point to point what we absolutely cannot have is passengers punting onto "cross contaminating shuttles", if airlines "think" they can tap into the mass market of the North by simply bussing passengers by shuttle to Heathrow , " think again" that model is dead.

Hopefully MAN are also thinking along the same lines.

[MANFAN]

CWL757

Starting 23rd May:
Tuesday and Sunday: departs MAN @10.30 arrives PMI @14.10.
Tuesday and Sunday: departs PMI @08.00 arrives MAN @09.40.

PMI based aircraft used (A320).

[easyflyer83]

Theres no denying, our industry has been decimated. There may well be some long term structural changes on its way and the 787/350 have opened up the possibility of more point to point services. However, to suggest that the 'hub & spoke' model is dead is somewhat premature at best. I think we need to be careful what we wish for here. All the heavies we all love to see at MAN, SQ, EK, QR, EY, TK etc are all "cross contaminating shuttles". Furthermore, if it wasn't for the hub & spoke model, I doubt we would see (for example) QR or SQ and a much thinner schedule from the likes of KL and LH.

You mention Virgin/Delta which again rely upon connections, certainly on ATL and JFK and I think the success of EI will probably rely to an extent on some kind of connectivity stateside.

Short term, there may well be scope to formulate some sort of quasi-charter programme but I would say that is best driven by the tour operators.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Navpi

British Airways hub and spoke = BAD
Everyone but British Airways hub and spoke = GOOD
Emirates, Qatar, Etihad, Singapore, Lufthansa, Swiss, Iberia, even Aer Lingus are all hub and spoke carriers as are all American, Delta and United who I assume you want to see return. OK, so you hate Heathrow, we get it. But let's favour overseas carriers and jobs over UK bases ones is Manchester localism gone too far.
Give your head a shake Bagso. The "dead" model you hate so much would kill connecting traffic on MAN-JFK-FLL/MIA/ORD/LAX/SFO/PHX/PIT/TUC etc etc You're literally asking to support a hub and spoke model, and you don't seem to know it. Unless I've got this wrong and Aer Lingus will be flying daily non stop to all of the above? Is the whole Shamrock fleet coming to MAN to fly point to point?

[SWBKCB]

Other than the last few lines, that is not how I read it.

[Navpi]

Skipness 1Foxtrot or is it Skipness1Echo.....

and who are "THE WE" to which you refer, would that actually be just you ?

There is an inconvenient truth that you miss in respect of Heathrow insofar as it is/was purely connecting traffic, that is a very different model to the other hubs you listed and it was, as im sure you are aware , specifically the Heathrow hub and spoke model and its relationship to Manchester to which i was referring.

l doubt anyone is actually flying to London from Manchester as a FINAL destination, that is a totally different model to hubs at JFK, Madrid, Frankfurt, Istanbul, Dubai, Singapore et al where there is/was a significant amount of end to end traffic supplemented by connecting passengers.

That is a major difference in a pre /post covid world.

i appreciate you are Heathrows number 1 fan and in your eyes it can do no wrong, in contrast i have been highly critical of Manchester not least in respect of freight. You to promote yourself as a reasoned individual but would i be correct in saying this only holds water as long as its a pro Heathrow agenda ?

[easyflyer83]

Oh come on, that’s tenuous. I would hazard a guess that on most MAN-HUB route most passengers will be connecting. If you believe we would have Singapore at all and a 3x Daily A380 with EK without all those connecting passengers then you need to give your head a shake MAN.
Your made specific reference to the “cross contaminating shuttle”. My question would be, how is LHR a cross contaminating flight but FRA is not? Indeed, from a border perspective, I’d argue that the LHR shuttle is a less contaminating flight (on paper) given it transports folk who have already entered the country.

BA has every right to fly here in the same way that it doesn’t have an obligation to have a hub here. Even as someone who has flown in BA colours whilst based in MAN, I’ve never really understood the hostility towards the airline. Because I think the undercurrent of your comment was indeed hostility towards BA and LHR.

We sometimes forget that we are less than 200 miles away from one of, if not the, worlds city and a City that is always going to be home to the UK’s hub.

I’m proud of MAN. They don’t always get it right but until the covid mess, we did very well. Arguably, we punched above our weight.

[MARK 101]

As a BHX regular, I personally would be happy if they reinstated the BHX/LHR flight and its connections. Personally ,I think there are very few international routes that would be sustainable on purely A-B traffic alone and probably even less post Covid. Even at fortress LHR ,there are a number of African and other carriers who survive purely on connecting traffic and would not be there otherwise. Think the UK does well in having regional airports that offer the services they do compared to Europe. As an example , if you live in France then its accepted as the norm that you fly to Paris to connect to anywhere. Dont forget MAN is only 200 miles from LHR and in aviation terms thats nothing. MAN does very well ,and hopefully will continue to prosper, but any ideas of wall to wall A350s or 787s is probably in reality unlikely

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Look Bagso, your key point is that for MAN to succeed you have to go on the attack against BA even being allowed to offer a one stop connection to their long haul network, inferring that they're spreading disease. I mean come on! You don't even pause for breath before extolling the virtues of attracting competing foreign based long haul network carriers in to take existing market share from a UK carrier.

I am pro having LHR as a world class hub, competing with similar peer airports. There's a load wrong with LHR and am not a fan boy per se, I want my country to succeed. Which is why I read your rant as an attack on a UK registered carrier supporting thousands of British jobs in difficult times, to bar them from even serving MAN in favour of the likes of the ME3 who treat their employees frankly appalingly. I found that worth challenging. I want MAN to succeed but am not looking to run down someone else's business and job to do so.

[Rutan16]

MARK 101

I can assure you connecting over CDG/OLY is not accepted in much of France , However even with TGVs there remains a core domestic market for day returns to the capital to supplement onward connection banks. French regionals notably Nantes, Bordeaux, Lille, Lyon, Marseilles and Nice have a differing dynamic when it comes to international traffic flows to that of the UK - Focused on the Francophone world and the Megreb no surprises. And there remains a healthy competition for traffic by none other than Easyjet while the AF/KL group and partners continue to operate a reasonable domestic network of routes avoiding Paris completely and the Transavia brand provides substantial international traffic from the regions for the AFKL business .
Being “forced” over Paris isn’t the reality it first seems.

The animosity to BA|(IAG) is now steeped in the fog of time among those in the late forties and above that might remember dirty tactics obfuscation and indeed deceitful behaviour to block competition ( well carriers stealing their jewels perhaps ).
The carrier made huge mistakes in the rapidly liberalised markets particularly from the regions, including wrong sizes aircraft unsustainable frequencies and high fares. Continuing to target foreign long haul operators head on where they saw threats. While competitors and the flexible fares ( non network) airlines were rapidly eating their lunch and offering a vast array of point to point routes and affordable fares.

The development of the alliances ( which allegedly removed Qantas, and Cathay for some years) was another way to control traffic and manipulate customer choice to accept inconvenienced multi stop long haul often with a promise of a discounted flight at some later date across the superhubs.

Well this concept was imported from the US domestic market where it functions to allow the big three to operate railway type service in a vast country - Fundamentally its domestic with a few international links as an add on.
BA closed regional services and tried to apply similar approach to within EU traffic and in general that bit hasn’t worked .

Indeed it took external (NONE UK) legal changes to allow much of the genuine growth seen in the last thirty five years, and more so the last fifteen years without BA .

US/EU Openskys and the European single aviation market , the EU openskys treaties with Morocco and Israel, and the UAE bilateral have been the key.

Right now through we have COVID19, we have the changed European status the impact of the end of freedom of movement for EU citizens and a weakened US service agreement to overcome- these will also effect the UK hub in Slough Windsor Spelthorne and Hounslow !

In my opinion aviation is going to be hit for some years ahead from the UK even as we return to some sort of societal normality in 2022 and beyond.

Forget 30 million indeed forget 25 million terminal passengers for Manchester for some years .

The industry has convulsed and the scars and negative economic impacts will be deep and long lasting

In the UK we now have fewer players than at anytime since the fifties; not particularly healthy yet tragically there are some that want the only carrier able to keep BA remotely honest to fail.

Rant over .

[southside bobby]

SOF...

Rose tints possibly.

IAG conducts its Company Board meetings in Spain & is incorporated as a Sociedad Anonima also in Spain for tax purposes.

Regarding the "support" of thousands of jobs at LHR care to comment on the fire & rehire polices being enacted there.

[papabravowhiskey]

Having grown up in the NW, I am naturally biased in this matter, but I seem to remember from the dim and distant past being told that BA used to object to (perhaps successfully lobbying against may be the correct phrase) any US carriers being granted rights to fly direct into Manchester, whilst not operating competing services itself. Is this true?

[easyflyer83]

I've heard that several times and I have no reason to believe it is untrue. BA weren't exactly the only culprits and even today, Lufthansa attempts to prevent frequencies of the ME3 in Germany. Bilateral agreements (more prevalent in the past) were in their very nature, restrictive to competition. LH also still seek to limit LCC activity in FRA.

Indeed, much of the criticism levelled by Rutan were/are actually relevant to most of the network carriers. Incidentally, BA were one of the first of that group of airlines to offer one way fares etc. By comparison, until relatively recently, KLM still stipulated the old Saturday night rule on it's cheapest fares. Again, the criticism is probably best levelled at the network carriers of old rather than just British Airways. But...again, the hostility among many comes from the fact that BA don't serve MAN much above the LHR shuttle.

You are right in saying that in the absence of a national network, the US carriers are that nations rail network, but the hub and spoke model is prevalent the world over and to say that having no national railway is the only reason that model works in the US is ridiculous. Where things changed in Europe was the LCC's and despite being based on Southwest, were different in many ways. Notably, offering non-stop services as opposed to Southwest which operated more like a Greyhound bus, stopping off at various places. The Brits embraced the LCC's and BA will have found it incredibly difficult to compete, at the time they offered a far superior service, a service that many weren't willing to pay, especially when considering the LCC's stimulated additional demand through lower fares, something BA struggled to do with the product it offered at the time.

When BA pulled its CitiExpress base at MAN and sold it to FlyBe, it did keep its code on flights for a while and I think perhaps its biggest mistake was to not then bring BE into the stable when that carrier was profitable. I would have adopted a hybrid BE/BA brand similar to HOP! by Air France.

But ultimately, the hostility towards BA, at least today, is because they don't really serve MAN and people believe that as the national carrier (which they are not) they should do. Hence the old "London Airways" mantra.

[MANFOD]

Going back to the debate about p2p against major hubs, a couple of points occur in the context of MAN.

I'm not sure the distinction is as clear cut as has been inferred. For example, over the years, my wife and I have enjoyed 4 or 5 day stays in Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai as part of longer holidays further afield. I'm not sure whether it still applies but some airlines used to offer incentives for stop-overs with reduced hotel rates, excursions etc. Yes, we were using those airports as hubs as they had direct flights from MAN but we were not just transiting the terminals.

Secondly, pre-covid, and before the collapse of TCX and flybe, MAN had slowly been building up the number of connecting passengers at this end of the journey. VS & TCX were reportedly picking up not large but useful numbers of pax transferring at MAN from other domestic and international flights. Nothing remotely like LHR, but seen as sufficiently significant to incorporate improved transfer facilities in the design of the TP for T2. I would have thought that even a few regular transfer passengers onto a long haul flight, particularly if premium pax, could sometimes tip the scales as to whether or not a route is viable.

I don't accept that a direct long haul flight from say MAN or EDI to a hub in the Middle or Far East, somehow means all the jobs and benefits to the UK are lost. Surely, these services bring jobs and wealth to the UK regions they serve, rather more I suspect than a couple of extra shuttles to LHR. I hesitate to mention 'levelling up' but it is a subject which could be relevant in terms of whether non-London airports are encouraged to develop to their maximum potential while accepting it is ultimately airlines that decide where they fly to.

I'm sure Rutan 16 is right. MAN, (and indeed aviation in general), face a huge challenge in winning back routes that were withdrawn and rebuilding passenger numbers and confidence.

[Navpi]

"Your key point is that for MAN to succeed you have to go on the attack against BA even being allowed to offer a one stop connection to their long haul network, inferring that they're spreading disease"

As usual SKIP you seem to misunderstand and reinvent your own narrative dressing this up as a supposed response that someone else has said.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

southside bobby

And how many British jobs are dependent on the continued existence of IAG's subsidiary? The British registered one? How many jobs Bobby?

Fire and rehire is immoral and awful, indefensible IMHO. So, given that, and that Emirates are doing the same, I assume you'll be leading the campaign to ban them from Stansted? Thought not.

We're all familiar with BA stopping Sabena operating long haul out of MAN, they stopped KLM and SAS doing the same out of PIK, it was Government policy as BA was a state enterprise that lost money being forced to operate routes and equipment on less than commercially driven terms. In the end BA dropped MAN because BA was uncompetitive, but even that was years ago now. How long is it rational to hold an emotive grudge for? I occasionally hate BA because they cancel flights on me or pitch up late. Almost no one alive today was responsible for fighting against Singpaore, Qantas and American flying to MAN. Is there ever a time to let a grudge go?

[OzzyOzBorn]

It is true that MAN has enjoyed a very turbulent relationship with British Airways over the years. But that is a discussion best left to the historians. All the personalities of that era are long gone (most are six feet under). It is highly unlikely that any of the senior executives at today's BA or MAG would have any meaningful knowledge of events back then. For the purposes of contemporary considerations and for planning ahead, we need to think of BA as just another airline brand and Manchester Airport as another business opportunity which may or may not interest that brand.

Note that I speak of the brand, not the airline. That is because the true contemporary entity is IAG - a grouping within which 'British Airways' is just one constituent brand. And, as it happens, today is a rather momentous day to be debating IAG's attitude towards MAN. Because this is the day that the group has finally gone public with details of the new Aer Lingus Transatlantic programme of scheduled flights to JFK, MCO, BOS and BGI, with the possibility of more to come. When C-19 subsides, MAN can also anticipate resumption or continuation of regular schedules by various IAG brands: British Airways to LHR; BA CityFlyer leisure schedules (not resuming S2021 but may return post-pandemic); Sun-Air of Scandinavia (BA franchise) to BLL, GOT?; Aer Lingus to DUB; Aer Lingus (Esken franchise) to ORK, BHD, DUB; Iberia Express to MAD with the possibility of additional leisure routes; Vueling to BCN.

This IAG portfolio which we see today is far removed from the old British Airways days of yore. MAN is evaluated purely as a business opportunity with potential profits to be made, to be compared with alternative airports bidding for the aircraft assets committed. Decisions are made based on projected ROI, often by executives who are neither British nor based in the UK. Those making the calls have no knowledge of the big characters of BA's past, nor of the business practices they implemented back then. Likewise, few executives at MAN are aware of the policies enacted by high-profile forerunners such as Gordon Sweetapple and Sir Gil Thompson back in the day. They're just names from ancient history.

So we all need to move on and consider today's IAG and today's MAG. Some positives, some negatives in both cases, but essentially two businesses trying to make their way in the most challenging environment seen by commercial aviation in living memory.

I was directly inconvenienced by BA's tactics back in the '80's with one journey severely disrupted (rerouted with a change at LHR whilst accompanying a passenger with mobility problems). I was livid, and I have only once made a long-haul booking with them since ... though to be fair, a cruise line made that booking and I didn't have much say in it! So I understand the depth of feeling. But today I would be happy to book the British Airways brand if the itinerary and pricing ticked the right boxes. With connections over LHR, I always take account of the elevated likelihood of the domestic Shuttle leg being cancelled at short notice ... this service always seems to be first in line for the chop when LHR needs to reduce its movements rate. Apologists shrug and say those affected can drive or take a train to London ... well, not in time to make their long-haul connection they can't. So, for me, connections over LHR still come across as higher risk than those offered by competing options. But I'll still take the risk for high frequency short-haul connections where later flights are available if required.

My bookings with IAG brands are a straightforward business decision. They depend on the attractiveness of the deal offered in terms of price, reliability and timings (and ... errr ... interesting aircraft types! :-) ). There is no place for exercising grievances from ancient history in this process. It is just another airline brand operated by staff with zero knowledge of failures brought about by executives who occupied their roles over forty years ago.

Of course, contemporary failings would very much be taken into account. Air Europa still haven't refunded me for a booking which they cancelled eleven months ago (they're really bad). Though I do wonder whether IAG realise what a duffer they're buying there.

[commit aviation]

I think MAN's passenger recovery may be quicker than some forecast although maybe in a different form to before the pandemic.
The likes of Ryanair / Jet2 / Easyjet will when able offer low fares to entice the travelling public back into the air. So low cost and charter to Europe will likely return quicker. A key point that has been mentioned before is that a based low-co aircraft can operate a number of flights each day offering considerably more seats / passengers / revenue than one long-haul service might do. Yes, these long-haul services are important destinations to the region and yes they will return in the longer term but the airport needs passengers to make money and I dare say it will take whatever is available when the happy day arrives that we can all travel more freely once again.

[OzzyOzBorn]

commit aviation: I would agree that the LCC contingent does (currently) offer the prospect of bringing back short-haul volume at a brisk pace. And there is certainly a ready market for their offerings if that is allowed to happen.

But government interference will be key - both here in the UK and in other jurisdictions. Unpredictability and quarantine requirements are a killer for holiday bookings. The requirement for expensive C-19 testing is a killer for the budget short-breaks market (not to mention the hassle factor of arranging a test -H72 before).

There is a serious risk emerging that the SH leisure sector faces another summer season wipeout. We had presumed that a successful vaccination rollout would bring liberation, but instead the trend appears to be towards more draconian restrictions than those in force last Summer when nobody had any protection against the virus at all. This defies logic, but it is what it is. The likes of Professor Adulterer seems to want us locked down forever (with just him being allowed out to indulge his passions). Meanwhile, our real PM Princess Nut Nuts and her willing chancellor (Caroline Lucas in drag) Sunak are waging a campaign of annihilation against aviation in the UK. Assistance for airlines and airports has been negligible beyond those measures offered to businesses generally, despite HMG being 100% responsible for their extinction-level plight. Even in instances where PR-friendly assistance is proposed at the margins - eg. a cut to domestic APD, we quickly learn of proposals to pay for this by hitting long-haul rates even harder instead.

In order for these LCC's to do what they're capable of doing post-pandemic, we first need them to survive. If they lose a second successive summer season, that can not be presumed even for the strongest names. No airline is safe if revenue is crushed for two consecutive years. If even "unthinkable" names fall by the wayside, the return of passenger volumes post-pandemic could be very laboured indeed. Limited by lack of supply. And our dear leaders will preen and boast of how "green" they are, lauding the carbon targets they will now meet. One day, someone will explain to these eejits about the role of WATER VAPOUR in shaping climate. But we'd better not hope for any apology from them.

[Rutan16]

papabravowhiskey

Yes its true compounded by the government agencies bias during bilateral negotiations

[Navpi]

Good points sensibly argued Mr Ozzy although I would waiver the return of BA shuttles as a priority , maybe IAG agree, it is possibly the reason Aer Lingus are making such a fist of Manchester ?

My original point holds sway that the majority of hubs with direct access to Manchester ALSO support end to end traffic, it's a point seemingly lost on our friend in the south.

The BA shuttles are for connections only therefore i am of the view that a service post covid such as Finnair to Helsinki, Iberia to Madrid etc whilst providing connectity to China and South America also directly support the economy of the North of England making direct air services viable between both countries and supporting UK BUSINESS UP HERE.

That is not a bonus that LHR shuttles can provide.

With aviation on its knees the worth of those services "when"" they hopefully return cannot be understated despite the best efforts of Government to trash the industry.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

So because the BA Shuttle carries little point to point it's bad even though it offers hundreds of options to the travelling public? OK....
BTW I am Scottish so as being of the North goes, kinda beat you on that one, if this was a competition, which it's not. :)
One key point on IAG. The subsidiaries are better described as OpCos (operating companies) rather than "brands". Key strategic decisions for Aer Lingus are made in Dublin as is fleet strategy, it remains an Irish company. It also licences it's own brand with the independent company Stobart Air. Fleet planning is made in Dublin but subject to CAPEX approval by IAG and they're expected to align with the wider group policy, hence A350s can swap from Aer Lingus to Iberia before delivery as that benefits both OpCos. Likewise BA licences their own brand to ComAir and SunAir but neither have ownership links with IAG

As for the BA Shuttle competing with Iberia to Madrid and Finnnair to Helsinki, well Iberia is a JV partner and Finnair is a Oneworld partner so they're not competing in the way you mean. The Finnair / Iberia option is once daily subject to availability and doesn't connect to all long haul options at HEL or MAD. Hence the only available option may be MAN-LHR-HEL/MAD-xyz depending on where you are heading to. It's sub par to make two connections but the point to point market for a legacy out of MAN to HEL/MAD isn't strong enough given most of the point to point will go easyJet or similar at way less cost. The market HAS moved in the direction of point to point away from hub and spoke in Europe but to the detriment of the legacies who provide the connections MAN asipres to for the wider world. It's a tricky circle to square.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Skip - Whilst noting your point about OpCos, it was quite appropriate for me to explain IAG's market presence at MAN in terms of sub-brands. British Airways is not widely represented at MAN, whilst IAG arguably is. Context is important in this case, and the two terms are not mutually exclusive. Aer Lingus is both an OpCo and a brand. Reference to either term is valid according to circumstance. In my posting, reference to 'brands' [of IAG] was apt.

BTW, you didn't need to explain to me that OpCo is an abbreviation for 'Operating Company', or even what one does. Condescending much? You'll be amazed to learn that some of us are quite familiar with the term. Would you expect me to explain to you what a 'brand' is? I do you the courtesy of presuming you to know this, and would appreciate similar respect in return. You're amongst fellow pros on here. In my case, I've been analysing the airline industry for longer than I care to admit to ... just qualified for my first jab!

[TURIN]

Some of us have no idea what an OpCo is.
It is possible the explanation was for the benefit of people like me. This is a public forum after all.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Wasn't being patronising, the terminology is relatively new to common usage, and regarding brand, it's like sex/gender and weight/mass, they're easy to conflate. IAG OpCos are BA/ Iberia (+ Air Europa) /Aer Lingus /Vueling.... Level am not 100% on as they have a French and Austrian AOC as well as Spanish A330s operated by Iberia. The BA brand encompasses ComAir, SunAir as franchisees as well as BA CityFlyer as a subsidiary. As well as the independent Stobart using the Aer Lingus brand, Air Nostrom use Iberia's!

It should be possible for Aer Lingus to fly long haul out of MAN even if BA object, but going forward I suspect that there will be a conversation at IAG level about Aer Lingus hurting BA feed to US long haul if they make a success of it, which I truly hope they do. It depends how badly both are hurting given I think this summer will be a write off as well. But in terms of what's better for MAN, it's Aer Lingus non stop of course, but I support the option of the many other MAN-LHR-JFK options per day once we get flying again. I really want MAN to succeed, just not at the expense of friends and colleagues who are in a very bad place.

[southside bobby]

SOF

BAW have been publicly rebuked both in The House of Commons & in Select Committee concerning their shameful treatment of staff.

Terminology use will not obscure the fact that MAN presents far less of a problem for "friends and colleagues" than IAG domiciled in Madrid paying its taxes there too.

The notes concerning operating affiliations are useful though so howzabout a listing of the shareholdings/shareholders in IAG/BAW as that maybe prove interesting too.

The then BAW management/shareholders sold out long ago to further their own interests with no thought for employees so hardly a fault of ANY airport either.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Ownership is a side issue and a legally complex one, that's a lil bit of "whatabouttery". My key point is there are tens of thousands of staff working for a UK based airline at risk of redundancy. If you want to claim they're really Spanish owned then go ahead, it doesn't change anything. Nissan are Japanese owned but have thousands of UK based jobs.

"Terminology use will not obscure the fact that MAN presents far less of a problem for "friends and colleagues" than IAG domiciled in Madrid paying its taxes there too". I don't understand what this means.
When you complain that BA sold out to further the interests of shareholders with no thought for staff that's false. Air France and KLM merged, Lufthansa got hold of Swiss and Austrian, in that competitive environment BA and Iberia came together to stay competitive. The might of IAG allowed cost savings which allowed them to stay competitive and invest. Aer Lingus also sold out. Medium sized European flag carriers are not competitive on their own, especially against govt owned foreign comptitors like the ME3. Job cuts today often ensures survival tomorrow, it's harsh and cruel on a personal
level but time and time again ends up being the right move. The very existence of Ryanair caused Aer Lingus to cut and slash and destroy wages all so we could fly for a decent fare.

[SWBKCB]

Hopefully Manchester will capitalise on A TO A destinations where countries at either end are all vaccinated, the US springs to mind if that country reaches a certain critical level.

Getting back to what I thought was Navpi's original point and leaving the BA dog fight, it is likely that the earliest places to open up will be those with good controls and high vaccination levels. Is this going to be a issue going forward for the hub connections and favour point to point flights, and how will this affect Manchester

[southside bobby]

SWBKB

Good & succinct point out.

My own thoughts... Analysts here are all over the show in the attempted mitigation of LHR .

[easyflyer83]

SWBKCB

His original point wasn’t ignored. The reply was that some of the routes that MAN has are only viable because the destination is a hub. So if hub and spoke op’s become ‘difficult’ then MAN can probably say goodbye to several of its links and a scaling back of most others.

Any capitalisation on corridors/traffic lights status will likely be by IT tour ops, and the MAN based carriers.

[flyerguy]

Speculation that British Airways maybe getting ready for an announcement on Manchester - Pakistan route from mid-end April

[VickersVicount]

That, as a standalone, would be curious. Odd the original LGW connection for Pakistan never came to fruition..

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

.....and on top of VS already on Islamabad? Maybe they'll look at Karachi or Lahore instead?

Will this be overkill?

The only positive is that, even in these horrendous days, the Islamabad route managed a load factor of around 75% on my calculations in February.

[The96er]

Maybe you need to see it more as BA/IAG ‘taking a tilt at VS’ ! - that’s assuming it happens, which I doubt.

[TURIN]

The big ME3 have all been stopped funnelling passengers from Pakistan. There is clearly a demand as can be seen by the numbers flying out. We shall see.

[Downwind_Left]

Clearly. With international travel from the UK illegal, except for essential reasons, with most routes at a tiny fraction of their normal levels - these load factors are amazing.

[HKGBOY]

I'm a bit more pessimistic that short haul will bounce back sooner than long haul.
With only 11% of Europeans vaccinated (compared to 50% UK). Even the vaccine leading UK ,it will be August at the earliest before the UK will have vaccinated anything like the sufficient number of under 50s to enable relaxation. Even then, I can see a combo of testing & quarantine on arrival back to the UK. That won't make short European holiday trips viable for many.
On the other hand there is business & substantial family requirements for long haul that the inconvenience of testing/quarantine on arrival both ends is worthwhile. I can see CX, HU & SIA for instance re-introducing a limited schedule, along with the EI US routes. If the alleged Islamabad load factors mentioned above are true, that reinforces the family travel demand, despite quarantine rules.
This scenario is more realistic than expecting a return to multiple Alicante & Malaga's this side of October.
There is also the huge cargo demand from the longhaul services that would contribute to their viability.

[roverman]

Is-ba-mad? As well as Virgin, PIA are still flying MAN-ISB by proxy at least once weekly using a Hi Fly A330. PIA for all their troubles will still surely capture a good deal of the home market. For BA to pop up on a stand alone MAN long-haul route would be strange indeed. But these are strange times and the opportunity to use semi-redundant resources anywhere must be tempting.
Glad to see the MAN forum is stayin' alive on a familar diet of BA-bashing and 'give cargo a chance'. I've got cargo in my belly and a license for my telly and nothing's gonna bring me down!

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

MAN-ISB was a longstanding BA route against PIA for years, ended up on the B747-400 from T3 in the end. That must have been a busy boarding gate. Was a LGW based B747-236B for a time routing LGW-MAN-ISB-MAN-LGW, BA119 and BA118 I think.

[Ex Cargo Clown]

Was 128, but routed LHR-MAN-ISB and v/v. Was an absolute nightmare.

As for the BA bashing, I'm getting involved in this a bit late. They abandoned MAN and all the regions and went very London-centric. Our P2P traffic was pretty good with BAR, we had the JFK flight as well which did well, but Waterwiorld got greedy and jealous.

MAN built T3 to cater for them, and it worked. Now it has been infested by LCC.

They deliberately killed the AA routes as well, which were doing rather too well.

Now they've frozen payments into a pension scheme they had previously taken a "holiday" from.

Lovely company.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

This is very well written, c/o Crosswind from "another place" (we can't mention? I think, if not then I'll edit and amend)
The comments ref American are spot on IMHO, this person is way more eloquent than I have been but I agree with the analysis.


It’s perfect sense to the rest of us, but sadly most Manchester related topics are fraught with emotion. At the expense of facts.

Manchester is a big volume market. No doubt. And it’s a sizeable Trans Atlantic market. No doubt.
But the flows on Trans Atlantic are largely UK outbound. And focused on price sensitive customers. No doubt.

Yes there is some business. And some premium leisure. No doubt.

But aircraft are assets that you use where they make the most profit. For the size of the market Manchester has done well over the years on the US routes. But the hard truth is this... in isolation routes initially did well. American’s ORD route started in 1986, by 1992 it was their first European MD-11 flight, plus a second daily 767. Reportedly their most profitable European route. As time went on more US airlines came... but because people weren’t flying to Chicago, Atlanta, Washington etc they just tore up each other’s markets. That’s the problem. All the different US hub routes just compete with each other - despite looking like they’re going to different places, the final destinations of UK passengers are generally the same. So the very profitable American flight in 1992 was loss making in 2019 because people leaked over other hubs.

And many here herald Thomas Cook as a resounding success. And maybe it was, but they picked the dense point-to-point mainly UK origin routes, which badly hurt the US carriers’ hub traffic. And BA hub traffic via LHR for that matter.

It’s a finite market... just because your incumbents like United, Delta, American were all busy and profitable to their hubs... they’re not immune to someone else adding a load of hub-bypass capacity. When that happened the sums didn’t add up for many of them.

As to the BA bashing... they had their own terminal at Manchester. And a sizeable fleet based there. In the late 1990s mainly brand new 737-300s and EMB-145s. Serving mainly business destinations, at the time that’s what BA did. Leisure was for charter airlines. As the low cost and leisure airlines grew... BA tried to defend their traditional turf; Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Edinburgh, Milan, Zurich. The problem was that BA were really only doing point to point... whereas the likes of Swissair, Lufthansa and KLM could capitalise on their hubs to make their competing service work.

If BA had dropped all the regional/business stuff and shifted to the premium leisure market in the early 2000s, maybe they’d still be there. But even 20 years later they’re only just going into premium leisure properly at Heathrow. Until very recently it was confined to the odd weekend charter and Gatwick.

BA didn’t close their hub at Manchester because it was too profitable. On long-haul they carried on JFK to the bitter end, and attempted Barbados, Hong Kong, Islamabad, Los Angeles, and Orlando. It’d say Manchester-Los Angeles in 1993 on a 767 was pretty out there. If they weren’t interested in Manchester why would they bother starting it?

American Airlines are said to have sabotaged their Manchester flights. Well over the years, they flew to Chicago mainly, and Philadelphia after the merger. But they also tried Boston, New York JFK, Dallas/Ft Worth and Miami... often more than one attempt at each route. Is that an airline that wasn’t trying? I think AA really have given Manchester their all over the years. More than any other carrier, AA were desperate for it to work. They messed around at the end, but you have to assume because it wasn’t making money. Or it would have been protected in terms of equipment used and cancellations. Even United are now gone and not coming back under their current plans.

As far as BA interfering with their partners to withdraw from Manchester... In the 1990s the Qantas Manchester flights came via Heathrow in both directions, and the Cathay Pacific flights were via Amsterdam/Frankfurt/Zurich. So of course when they entered partnership with BA they stopped. Why would you fly a three-quarter empty 747 on a 1 hour leg when your partner has regular flights on that route? Perfect business sense for the airlines, and not massive difference to the passenger. These 1990s era flights were multi-stop anyway. But it annoyed the spotters who wanted to see Qantas, or Cathay Pacific aircraft at Manchester. On the flip side probably improved the contribution of BAs O&D reliant services to those places at the time.

It would be great for T3 British Airways to still be a hub. But I think we have to accept that the reason it’s not now, is due to market forces and evolution. Not sinister intent on BA’s part. To continue to assert that doesn’t aid credibility.

After all, after the sale of the Manchester network to Flybe, did things get any better? And that was an airline that was almost exclusively non-London.

I just believe we should move on from attacking any airline that didn’t make Manchester work as a failure on their part. Some have made it work, some have done very well, others didn’t make it work. But many of the latter gave it a good go over the years.

[easyflyer83]

That is a way too balanced response for here skip.

One correction though. I wouldn’t class BA leisure routes to be ‘premium leisure’ these days, unless sat in club. Premium leisure BA flights were back firmly in GB days.

[TURIN]

Aer Lingus A321NXLR due in Monday afternoon. Shakedown flight and a jolly for the press?

[EISNN]

I’m afraid it’s not the XLR. Aer Lingus’ XLR’s are not due for delivery until 2023. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an XLR or two based at MAN though. I wonder would EI consider going eastbound and Middle East bound from MAN?

[Dorking]

I would`nt be suprised if this was in the eventual planning. I certainly think Aer Lingus UK have the potential to be quite a big player, long haul, in the future from Manchester.

[SWBKCB]

Or once the money runs out and they're own markets recover they'll be off!

[BHX5DME]

Probably, once any subsidies have dried up.

[Navpi]

Looks like main players BA , EI and VIR fully focused on Heathrow and Manchester now.

[Dorking]

Unless of course they start to make good money of their own, which is always possible, is it not?

[MANFOD]

Oh don't spoil it for the pessimists, especially those whose main interest is in other UK airports.

I agree with Navpi's conclusion

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

There's very real potential to step into the space vacated by Thomas Cook if we're talking a commitment to a based fleet of A321Neos to secondary US cities on a semi-seasonal basis carrying Brits to the US. Aer Lingus have only ever flown long haul east once to Dubai and that wasn't huge success and ended when Emirate came along or just prior. And the A330 to the Caribbean is a good use of capacity and it's a well know brand so why not?
Going East is going head to head with the ME3 with huge connecting opportunities to many more destinations, whereas the US is now relatively underserved from MAN.

It will kick off in Ireland if and when SNN-US restarts and "Manchester won't give Shannon their aircraft back" and cries of "theft". It's not ALL commercial, politics will get involved but they do have more long haul aircraft than needed by some way for 2021 and probs 2022.

[cumbrianboy]

SWBKCB

Of course the flaw in that argument is that Aer Lingus have not received any substantial subsidies from the Irish Government ... it's the cause of much unease over there ... all the government have done is throw some money at the airports and pay a percentage of the salaries for some staff - Aer Lingus / Ireland is unique in Europe in being the only country not to have supported aviation despite having the strictest and longest standing restrictions of travel - even within the EU.

Personally I think EI are in Manchester and the UK because it presents a sound commercial opportunity and think it has big potential to grow alongside the Irish operations

[Navpi]

It's not just airlines on the critical list, many airports are on there as well especially the smaller ones beyond Heathrow and Manchester.

[Navpi]

cumbrianboy

Its clear its the only viable opportunity outside LHR.

[SWBKCB]

cumbrianboy

Who said anything about money from the Irish Govt? My understanding is that EI had spare a/c due COVID, spotted that a number of UK regionals had lost transatlantic connections and went out to strike a deal. A marriage of convenience or a long lasting commitment? Time will tell.

[OzzyOzBorn]

Keep in mind that 'Aer Lingus' is just one brand under the umbrella of IAG. If it is necessary at some point to redeploy their assets back to Eire, IAG has alternative options to cover capacity at MAN. And there are three compelling reasons why this should be of interest to them: firstly, the collapse of Thomas Cook has removed upto six high-capacity A332 departures per day between MAN and destinations in the Americas (including the Caribbean and Mexico); secondly, the main US carriers have stepped away from the MAN market for now, barring Delta who retain exposure via Virgin Atlantic; thirdly, IAG will not be minded to afford rival Virgin Atlantic a free run at the proven Transatlantic market from the North of England.

Of course, the big imponderable is the course of C-19 restrictions ... but that is true generally, not just for MAN. What does offer hope is the successful rollouts of vaccination programmes in both the UK and the US. This offers the possibility that markets between the two could actually open up sooner than those between the UK and some Continental European jurisdictions. Of course, we then need to see what experience the Florida vacation market can offer: how much capacity will socially-distanced theme parks be able to accommodate? Will restaurant space be freely available for walk-in trade? Presumably ex-Florida cruising will be very limited for a while yet. New York City / Shopping breaks will be attractive to many ... again, provided that C-19 restrictions are not too onerous. And in addition to the leisure sector which is so dominant from MAN, there is still a worthwhile tranche of business travel and cargo to go after as well. Plus VFR, of course.

So, C-19 rules permitting, entering the MAN - North America market is not a huge gamble for IAG / Aer Lingus. Their capacity will be much less than that previously provided by Thomas Cook ... and remember that their Transatlantic routes were highly successful ... TCG was brought down by accrued debts elsewhere in their nebulous empire. Meanwhile, they're primarily up against a significantly-downsized Virgin Atlantic which has retired its high-capacity B744's and reduced destinations and frequencies. TUI's presence essentially relates to niche in-house package holiday options, and all the US carriers have dropped out for now. So if C-19 restrictions are lifted, Aer Lingus will find themselves as one of the big(-ish) two in a sellers' market. Demand for travel is not in doubt ... only permission to do so is. Not a bad place to be. And if C-19 does thwart everything, then that is a concern which will extend well beyond the MAN market. Dublin and London departures will be similarly impacted.

[beefix]

I understand that Jet2 are starting to cancel June flights to Italy.!!!:{

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Hasn't IAG offered Virgin a free run at MAN-US ever since BA dropped MAN-JFK though? An American codeshare is not really an IAG presence, if there's such a thing. If I was on the IAG board, and thank God I'm not, I'd be asking why another IAG OpCo is stepping into BA's home market (the UK). Imagine the banter if BA launched DUB-JFK with spare B777s as British Airways (Ireland). People's heads would explode that this was wrong on every single level and the worst thing to happen since Trevelyan whereas I bet Aer Lingus (UK) could really make MAN work.

[OzzyOzBorn]

By speaking in terms of a 'free run', I was really referencing the prospective scenario which would have left Virgin Atlantic pretty much in a monopoly position on key MAN-USA routes post-Covid. It was more related to AAL and UAL stepping back from the fray for now. BA has been out of the picture for years, so obviously they were at ease with the status quo in the interim, but Virgin having the North to themselves is something else. The introduction of Aer Lingus ensures healthy competition all round.

[Navpi]

The tourist destinations for the "new normal" appear to be coming to the fore.

European destinations appear to be a no no BUT the US, Israel, Maldives, Malta And other less well known destinations such as Cape Verde, and wait for it Bahrain should capitalise.

Manchester does have the US with VIR and EI , hopefully it will target airlines prepared to operate to these countries "immediately" with a view to getting capacity up and running which will allow those so minded individuals to get packing.

[Dct_Mopas]

For the short term then yes for these destinations, however it won’t be that long until other destinations will come on online. By July/August things will look alot different.

[Navpi]

True but the "dedicated MAN development team" need to ensure no opportunity is missed. They need to cordinate with airlines prepared to operate to these destinations as soon as the list is announced. This isn't a time to sit on ones hands and wait for the business to come in.

Infact with a few countries already leaked they should be on the tippy tappy now. "Hello Gulf Air".

We are not Heathrow where traffic is handed on a plate simply by virtue of being the capital and the obvious default gateway for new entrants.

Manchester needs to actively persue airlines vigorously restating perhaps its own "pr puff piece" in relation to the 22m within 2 hour catchment.

[Suzeman]

And have you any reason to believe these things are not happening in the background? That is where such discussions should be taking place, not in public..

[Navpi]

No i hope they are.

[easyflyer83]

Also, just because MAG get on the phone to an airline doesn’t mean they will want to/can operate to MAN.

-Will demand be long term?
-Is the airline in a state where it is able to take a punt on the route, particularly on the basis its home base is in a green zone. Not to mention the associated costs of serving a new station.
-A route is rarely instantaneously profitable. It takes time to build up to profit.
-The teams at both the airline and airport network throughout the year through trade events, including virtually too.
-Just because a route doesn’t come to fruition doesn’t mean there hasn’t been an effort on the part of MAG.
-Ultimately, it’s the airline that decides.

I personally don’t foresee an airlift type of operation to green destinations to enable folk to go away. There will be the traditional European destinations that will start to trickle onto the green list and operations will ramp up. We could potentially see tour ops putting some adhoc capacity on to some US routes but remember, they too will need some sort of operational structure in place to support that too.

[SWBKCB]

Are Aer Lingus part of the trans-atlantic JV?

[EISNN]

Yes. Their application to be part of the joint venture was approved at the end of last year.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2020/12/23/dot-approves-aer-lingus-addition-to-oneworld-transatlantic-joint-venture/

[TURIN]

flyerguy

I am assuming this is now a dead duck after Pakistan and Bangladesh have been added to the red route list.

[Saabandthecity]

Hi all, does anyone know why there are 5 flights coming in from Islamabad?

Thanks for your help

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

if you are referring to Thursday it's because Pakistan has been declared a 'Red' country by the UK government. This means that in order to avoid compulsory hotel isolation passengers must have returned before 4am today (Friday). The result was a series of extra charter flights, by PIA, to accommodate the number of passengers wishing to return before the deadline.

[Musket90]

Not operated by PIA aircraft as these are presently not allowed to operate into the UK. Chartered airlines included Wamos, Jordan Aviation, Hi-Fly, Enter Air (not sure they flew to MAN but they did BHX, STN and LGW).

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

Thank you Musket90 for that clarification on my previous post.
From memory Manchester had flights operated by Euroatlantic (2), Gullivair, Icelandair, Hi fly (2), Jordan Aviation (2) and Wamos (2).

[TURIN]

So, now thats out of the way, it's going to get very quiet at MAN as the pax from/to Pakistan were the only ones keeping the ME3 going.

[BHX5DME]

March Pax

Manchester – 95,798 down 89.8%

Stansted – 44,259 down 95.0%

East Midlands – 71 down 99.9%

12m end 31.03.21 Pax

Stansted – 3,069,220 down 88.6%

Manchester – 2,841,407 down 89.9%

East Midands – 413,321 down 90.8%

March Cargo

East Midlands - 40,908 up 29.4%

Stansted – 26,176 up 53.3%

Manchester – 4,046 down 39.5%

[Mr A Tis]

Looks like another security balls up, whilst only handling 5% of normal passenger loads.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/passengers-miss-flights-manchester-airport-20508791

Given the excess slack in the current airline schedules, you'd think in this case they (the airlines) may have held the aircraft and avoided the negative publicity, both for themselves & the airport?

[ImPlaneCrazy]

Although I'm sure the schedules are constantly changing, does anyone know which routes the MAN based TUI 787s will be used on presuming a restart is allowed on May 17th?

Thanks in advance.

[DomyDom]

Ryanair launch Manchester - Santander 2 x weekly Thurs & Sun from 1st July (Fri & Sun from start Nov). Looks like it's year round. On sale now.

Nice to see a new route launched and access to this part of Spain (Cantabria) from MAN.

[Dorking]

I think this route could do very well..Some say Cantabria is one of the best parts of Spain with Santander being ideal for a long weekend away..Thanks for the update.

[zfw]

Just for information, have just been in a meeting and there are no plans to open T3, it will remain in this position until the numbers are up. T2 is still looking for a June 21st opening.

[pabloc]

Any idea which Terminal Aer Lingus (U.K.) will be using?

[Gordon_uk3]

zfw

Will this be the new part of T" or the old part?

[Sioltach Dubh Glas]

I understand it should be the new part - although how much of the old will still be in use is another question.

[LFC22]

Has the old part of T2 had any works begin on it for refurbishment?

[TURIN]

Turkish dropping to four per week from Thursday.

BA to start Faro service from MAN.

[VickersVicount]

...and both just temporary arrangements I expect

[chaps1954]

hope so but as Turkey is in lockdown and in Englands Red list could be a while

[easyflyer83]

Remains to be seen how quick they can get the infections under control and the vaccinations up.

Hopefully it will be short stint in the same vein as Portugal.

[BHX5DME]

April 2021 Pax

Stansted – 84,553 up 517.5%

Manchester – 82,218 up 244%

East Midlands – 78 up 32.2%


12m rolling end 30.04.21

Stansted – 3,140,402 down 87.2%

Manchester – 2,899,742 down 88.8%

East Midlands – 413,340 down 89.9%


April 2021 Cargo

East Midlands – 40,439 up 48.8%

Stansted – 23,519 up 26.0%

Manchester – 3,830 up 288.2%

[DomyDom]

New route for Ryanair. Manchester-Verona twice weekly (Wed & Sun) from beginning of July.

Great to see some more choice on this route to what is a beautiful part of north-east Italy. Great for the Opera Festival at the Arena di Verona as well.

[SCFC1EP]

Emirates have operated the A380 on the lunchtime flight today and yesterday,

Anyone know the reason behind this, obviously not cargo related as more goes onto the B777, and can not think many passengers, UAE still on red list? very limited restrictions into Australia/New Zealand and India/Pakistan/Bangledesh and majority of Africa on red list

[Vokes55]

All of the 777s are operating a full schedule, so some flights need to be operated by A380s. Worth noting that the A380 can carry a significant amount of cargo when not carrying (m)any passengers/bags.

[chaps1954]

Interesting MAN gets the A380 when many capital cities still don`t and also a few 777 have recently left the airline

[easyflyer83]

On the face of it yes, in reality, no. Remember that MAN’s market is of a similar size to many European capitals and MAN features(d) in the top 10 routes for all of the ME3. On that basis, it’s not surprising.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

It's surprising in that it routes DXB-MAN devoid of any passengers and unless the return capacity outstrips a full B77W you gotta ask why they're using an A380. It may well be for crew training as the ramp up begins? What's the MAN-DXB load factor running at for May?

[Vokes55]

Actually, in times where there is no route on the planet that warrants an A380, it’s better to send them on the routes with little to no passengers so they can carry a useful freight load. Putting them on routes where they could get a passenger load of 50-60% but on a reduced frequency, the freight capacity would be down massively. Whereas a 77W could easily carry 20-30 tons of cargo in addition to half a load, and can carry a good 50-60 tons on freight only services.

In reality, Emirates is probably wishing some of those A380s were 787s right now, but that’s what they have to play with.

In answer to your last question, this Wednesday’s MAN-DXB had 139 pax and Thursday’s had 87. For comparison, Etihad carried 11 passengers on both days.

[Mr A Tis]

Blue Island

Thought there might of been a mini boom in UK domestics.
The Blue Island re-introduction of MAN EXT in June was 12 x a week- now only 3 x a week.
The Blue Island planned June start of MAN-SOU also 12 x a week- is postponed in its entirety until 31st August (frequency unknown). Good news for Eastern on that one, I think.

[roverman]

Last time Blue Islands served MAN (about a decade ago?) they got the blues pretty quick. It's grim up north! But that was when FlyBe were around to eat their prawn sandwiches. Now the field may be clearer. I hope it works out - I wish they still had the Trislanders, though.

[chaps1954]

Long way on a Trislander and would give some serious ear damage

[Mr A Tis]

"The Unseen World of International Air Cargo" - with the Head of MAG Cargo.
Surely one for Navpi?
https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=reg20.jsp&partnerref=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0V54Hf3eGLvIxt4Tbz4UFZDjTq3F7PrN55f-xIG_j4koIJy0yCYWSVE6U&eventid=3200510&sessionid=1&key=3F4DAAB1321CA698C6F8B403DD93E5AE&regTag=&V2=false&sourcepage=register

[Mr A Tis]

Current planning at Cathay has the daily service from Hong Kong to resume from 31st October 2021. Of course, anything can happen between now & then.

[spannersatcx]

No, they are just historical routes, and will be cancelled in due course, this summer the schedule was there as normal and cancelled prior to commencement, initially prior to each month starting, and then the whole of the summer schedule was cancelled. LHR has just ramped up to 5 a week, from the previous 5 per day, and going daily from July. Plus almost all at MAN were made redundant!
I could be wrong, and I do hope so, but don't see it happening this year. You can't even get in HKG unless you have residency, and have to currently isolate for 21 days! Plus it's a red route so only essential travel from/to the UK. You may see a few student flts, that's about it at the moment. Sad times indeed.

[Mr A Tis]

Sad times indeed Spanners. The info came from Customer services in HKG & the flights CX219 is bookable from that date. Obviously, they can easily be cancelled & bookings moved to LHR. (My other half lives in HKG & we've been separated for 16 months). BTW Hong Kong is on the UK Amber list not red.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Customer Services can only go on what's open in the booking system and we've seen how that rolls further out every month since Mar-20.

[spannersatcx]

We can but hope, amber or red neither here nor there as you still have to isolate for e 21 days in HKG if you can get in 😮 at the moment.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

https://www.manchesterairport.co.uk/flight-information/arrivals/
How long has the Flight Arrivals / Departures been down?

[OzzyOzBorn]

Quite a while. Many days.

[LFC22]

Drove past a few days ago, what are the two new buildings opposite the Radisson Hotel?

[MANFOD]

OzzyOzBorn

Yes, there was an apology on the MAN website dated 17 May, so 2 weeks tomorrow at least.
Not very impressive to put it mildly.

[MANFOD]

LFC22

I think it's probably these 2 hotels you are referring to.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-airport-hotel-terrace-airfield-20523969

[Mr A Tis]

Press release from MAG on the latest HMG Travel restrictions:
https://mediacentre.magairports.com/mag-statement-on-international-travel-review/

[commit aviation]

Some positive news confirmed:

SIA confirms return to Manchester airport | Travel Weekly (https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/sia-confirms-return-to-manchester-airport)

[Curious Pax]

Wideroe are also reported to be starting flights from Bergen from the end of October, at the expense of the previous Liverpool service.

[Navpi]

On a theme why on earth does Manchester have no quarantine hotels ?

Is this a MAG decision or Government?

[DP.]

There are no quarantine hotels because MAN isn't a designated port of entry for anyone requiring hotel quarantine. Anyone who is required to quarantine but arrives on a flight at MAN is liable to a stiff financial penalty (as is the airline).

I don't know what the decision making process was that led to MAN not being designated, but I suspect the government wanted to keep the number of ports as small as practicable.

[BHX5DME]

I was told that MAN refused to participate in offering a red terminal bot sure about a red hotel but the two things do go hand-in-hand.
EK operated to BHX today with a inbound load and parked on red terminal here.
Lots of additional flight due next week.

[Johnny F@rt Pants]

So where do all the pax go that arrive from Istanbul? I saw Turkish Airlines operating in and out of MAN last week when I was at work.

[DP.]

I would assume the aircraft is operating empty (with cargo) inbound, and only carrying passengers on the outbound.

[The96er]

Having walked past the Radison hotel a few times, I've noticed what appears to be, I guess, customers exercising in a taped of area of the car park watched over by people in Hi-viz vests. I'm not sure if this is anyway connected, but does seem strange.

[southside bobby]

Quote..."but does seem strange".
Not necessarily... STN has two Government designated "red" hotels on the estate with at least one partly in use but is not a red entry point either.

[BACsuperVC10]

Curious Pax

That isn't confirmed as so. The Liverpool service operates primarily for LFC fans from Norway. Too early to say this will not return when things improve.

[DP.]

The96er

interesting - I hadn’t really paid any attention to where the hotels are, so was taking the comment above about there being none in Manchester as fact. However a search shows the Copthorne on Salford Quays as being one, so seems likely the Radisson is also one based on what you’ve said.

[Navpi]

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/booking-and-staying-in-a-quarantine-hotel-when-you-arrive-in-england

As per web site today 15/6

If you’re required to quarantine in a managed quarantine hotel you can only arrive in England at certain ports of entry. Currently these are:

Heathrow Airport
Gatwick Airport
London City Airport
Birmingham Airport
Bristol Airport
Farnborough Airport
Biggin Hill Airport


What on earth are MAG Management doing about this?

[Downwind_Left]

Not caring, I would guess. It’s a tiny and temporary market. I suspect it might not be worth their effort, plus they can’t force any local hotels to become quarantine compounds.

I’m sure their time would be better spent on trying to mange relationships with airlines to restart meaningful operations when they are able to.

[TURIN]

commit aviation
Some positive news confirmed: SIA confirms return to Manchester airport | Travel Weekly
Indeed, nightstopping too. Three times per week.

[Navpi]

Downwind_Left

To be honest there is a running theme where seemingly many things are not "worth their effort".

[Curious Pax]

At the time the red list started it was stated that Manchester hotels weren’t keen to become quarantine hotels, so as stated why would MAN want to push it? Take your blinkers off and think it through. Any hotel that signs up is not going to be able to accommodate regular guests, and as England (hopefully) opens up, demand for hotels near airports will increase as travel increases. Heathrow has the luxury of volume, so a dozen people needing quarantine off each flight soon mounts up, but Manchester doesn’t have that, or the number of hotels in close proximity, It also doesn’t seem to make any difference as to whether Emirates operates, which may help explain why Birmingham agreed to do it.

[Mr A Tis]

All departures remain from T1, but who knew domestic arrivals are still into T3?
Arriving from Exeter you are directed by signs from T1 to T3 Domestic arrivals, where there are no staff, no baggage belt information. Then you exit into the T3 deserted forecourt. Unless you were familiar with the airport layout you wouldn't know where any facilities were. If anyone were meeting you, they'd probably expect you in T1 where you departed from.

[DP.]

A quick scan of the arrivals boards for LGW, LCY, BRS and BHX for today shows a grand total of one flight from a red zone country (EK into BHX). Even allowing for the fact that there'll probably be some quantity of red list passengers arriving on other flights, just how big do you consider this market to be? Maybe it just is the case that MAG have looked at the numbers and concluded - particularly operating in the constraints of T1 - that the logistics and impact on other flights/passengers really isn't worthwhile?

[inOban]

In Scotland there are quarantine hotels in Edinburgh Glasgow and Aberdeen. There's a twice weekly Qatar flight into Edinburgh, several flights a day from Amsterdam and some flights from frankfurt which may all carry passengers who require hotel quarantine.

[Navpi]

I appreciate numbers are limited BUT Manchester is the largest gateway outside London, why is it appropriate for Birmingham and Bristol to offer this facility but not worthwhile at Manchester ?

I don't want to re open the cargo debate , the issues have been discussed ad nauseum , but that is another area which is apparently quote "not worthwhile".

We still have UK aircraft stored all over Europe despite pleas from a number of UK airlines to use Manchester and its 2 miles of empty runway, the requests were turned down, yet again "not worthwhile".

Everything connected to Manchester seems to be quote "not worthwhile".

Where is the creativity and agilty of mind that turned Manchester from a small regional airport to a 30m pax gateway ?

[MARK9263]

Great points Navpi well made.
Diversions
CargoCovid cargo flights
Quarantine

When are people going to stop defending the indefensible.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

In terms of the wider commercial impact it's a rounding error, it doesn't matter.
You're literally asking "SEND ME YOUR INFECTED PEOPLE", the volumes inbound from red list countries are, by definition small and probably best kept in as few places as possible. The notion that Manchester Airport is affronted by under-indexing among inbound volumes of the likely diseased is a new one, even for these boards. COVID is driving us all slowly mad......

Everyone is focussed on trying to get some degree of manageable volume flying sensibly and safely again, if we lose another summer, it will be a calamity.

[TURIN]

Aer Lingus UK start up delayed again.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-delays-manchester-transatlantic-flights-launch-to-september-1.4594890?mode=amp

[MARK 101]

Sure if Manchester isnt a Red list gateway then how can Emirates be using A380s in to there regularly ? Its obviously not a case they cant accept flights

[BHX5DME]

With regard pax they are empty inbound with pax outbound only - cargo both ways

[Shamrock350]

TURIN

Again? This is the first official delay.

[The96er]

Although it May be the first 'Official' delay, there have been numerous internal and Operational push-backs. I think the original slots were filed for end March.

[Navpi]

Can you imagine if Manchester was a designated gateway but not Heathrow, you would be screaming blue murder.

[Navpi]

My God MANCHESTER has grown some bolls.....😁
At last

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57505736.amp

[CabinCrewe]

EZY MAN -EDI… surely thats a lot of seats to fill? ‘I give it a year’ (or until such times Benidorm comes back online)

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Heathrow's the UK's world gateway, so no, I can't imagine this happening, so let's stop being silly. You always take this personally as some sort of affront, as if not being designated a red country gateway is even going to be remembered in six months time.

As for Emirates and the A380, all UK flights are cargo inbound and passengers/cargo returning, loads are not close to filling the A380 but the fleet is being brought back to life as they're running the B77W fleet hard.

[TURIN]

The night before we shut the door there were 6 extra flights from ISB to bring people home. Before that, literally thousands of people were travelling from MAN through the ME3 primarily to Pakistan and Bangladesh. Since then the numbers outbound have plummeted, many of the outbound flights from MAN are cargo only, ergo the potential numbers returning will also have plummeted.

[Rutan16]

TURIN

yet laughing Bristol is 🤔

right now we still have Etihad and Ethiopian Qatar and PIA flights with Portuguese aircraft. Exactly how many red lists are there into the West Country pick a number !

[inOban]

It's always possible that the airport hotels didn't want the business, easier to keep staff on furlough.

[Rutan16]

Note so Ek5 and Ek01 continue to carry inbound passengers

[Rutan16]

inOban

Any business that would rather furlough and conserve cash when revenue offered may be in breach of covenants and shareholder interests especially if they are a PLC . This could open up directors to potential legal action

[inOban]

Surely conserving cash in present circumstances is very much in the shareholders interests?

[southside bobby]

Agree with #493 above...First duty of directors is toward shareholders & their interests which obviously involves checks & balances in expenditure v income ie the very basics & fundamentals of business...To conserve & retain cash in the midst of a worldwide prolonged crisis is a no brainer.
Nonsense to suggest "potential legal action" could result thus.

[TURIN]

Same at MAN. Cargo only inbound. Bristol I assume is the same.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Rutan16

My bad, you're quite right but this is VERY recent change, only in the last couple of weeks I think. Some QR and EY are also carrying inbound passengers now.

[Rutan16]

TURIN

Right from where exactly? come on Bristol has ZERO i mean ZERO red list routes and one local hotel; it’s laughable to be a designated airport period .
Sensibly ( through I am not sure UK national and England responsible administration know the meaning of that) the designated airport would be Heathrow, Manchester , Gatwick, Stansted and Edinburgh and maybe Farnborough along with Luton as a catch for those PVT Traffic indeed I’d suggest ONLY those airports be allowed to accept red list traffic period . I might add Birmingham at a push however their random weekly India flight would be better redirected to Heathrow at the moment. Containment is the object right now.

Still that would mean joined up thinking and central government accepting ownership but this administration won’t do that . Their very modus operandi is to dictate issue and then leave others to instigate and blame when things can’t be delivered.

I don’t withdraw my observation revenue and corporate responsibility either because had the administration acted in the national interests they would have commandeered accommodation such as done in other nations , paid compensation and truly controlled the borders rather than the current profiteering approach being taken.

Agreed right now it’s up to individual hotel chains to consider the advantages or otherwise of the red list quarantine scheme and their immediate bottom line . This is the national flaw imho. Again the administration has shifted the responsibility to commercial agents to deliver a National government security and healthcare policy of significant importance however this approach of private delivery is almost certainly based on political dogma imho.

[Rutan16]

Not disputing conserving cash in and of itself is a tool, however some the covenants and other financial instruments that PLC businesses operate under can be extremely complex and many are indeed in breach of those terms right now. Large scale negotiations in many PLCs are ongoing, and that’s the observation.
It’s not a joke to say directors may be acting illegally
Now as to if many indeed any do find themselves under investigation is another thing entirely

[MerchantVenturer]

Would there be travellers coming into Bristol Airport from Red List countries via the Amsterdam hub with KLM, a link that restarted some time ago?

[Rutan16]

In the tens per week maybe.

Manchester an undesignated point of entry has several Ethiopian per week , Daily Qatar and Etihad, weekly Pakistan charter, multiple daily KLM/ Air France and Lufthansa group, Finnair, SAS and resumption’s of many Ryanair. plus Aegean, TAP and Iberia offering bi directional one point onward connections worldwide.

However you try to square the round hole; right now right now Manchester remains the second airport for entry in the UK yet somehow no local Red list hotel availability is ludicrous period stop.

South Manchester has plenty of suitable hotels these days; this perhaps they don’t want the work can also be blown away, when Radesson Blu/Edwardian have the majority of the contracts and a rather suitable hotel literally yards from the terminals at Manchester.

No, this lack of a Manchester hotel is clearly politically driven and probably classical nativity at the home office as to how large Manchester Airport is !

[SWBKCB]

I think we can see where the political agenda is

[Rutan16]

And so what; these decisions are being created by a political entity are they not, and therefore are by definition the essence of politics and so to counter them requires a personal political and ethical stance.

It’s rather more than a simple agenda to me; my own views on societal issues have developed over a near life time; through personal core principles remain with me to this day.

[MerchantVenturer]

Many thanks, Rutan16. Mine was a genuine question, nothing more. I can see the point that you make.

[inOban]

AIR that pax arriving from a red list country don't have to quarantine in a hotel if they are UK residents? That probably covers most of the arrivals.

[Hial Flyer]

UK residents still need to quarantine in the hotel. Being a UK resident only allows you to fly from a red list country.

[Rutan16]

Correct .

Green no quarantine
Amber home quarantine
Red hotel quarantine

plus nuances and variations on the PCR TESTS

[Navpi]

Absolutely bang on Rutan. I sspect it was originally a decision from Whitehall...

"Smithers, isn't Manchester a small regional"
"indeed sir..."
"Where is it"
"somewhere in a place called The North i believe sir"
"No requirement then, excellent "

[SWBKCB]

Penetrating insight, as usual! :rolleyes:

[3Greens]

Rutan16

The Crowne plaza next to the Clayton hotel is a red list quarantine hotel.

[Navpi]

And of course links to Manchester Airport from the North East and Yorkshire which were promised in the election are slowly being erased now Whitehall and the DFT civil servants are getting hold of the project.

It would be good to see MAG comment on this. It's a vital link to the airport in the same way as Crossrail will eventually be to LHR.

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/leeds-to-manchester-high-speed-rail-line-remains-a-defining-test-the-yorkshire-post-says-3281142 (https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/leeds-to-manchester-high-speed-rail-line-remains-a-defining-test-the-yorkshire-post-says-3281142)