BIRMINGHAM - 6

[GayFriendly]

The return of AI

An EZY base at BHX

QR to start BHX-DOH

Wouldn't it be great if just one of these long standing runours actually happened! It's an upbeat article about AI but I agree with LAX_LHR it's based on author opinion alone. We can safely say that AI are looking into another UK airport to serve, but whether this will be BHX is very 50/50 seeing as route development seems focused on their DEL hub but ATQ is where pax from this area want to fly. One stop long haul routes eg BHX-ATQ-DEL simply add cost and complexity compared to DEL non-stop which as has been discussed might be more attractive to AI to do from MAN.

The article is wrong in one respect - it says AI have served BHX once before, they have in fact served it twice, they flew 707's from 1980-ish to 1984 routing BHX-SVO-ATQ-DEL (or maybe it was BHX-SVO-DEL-ATQ, can't remember that far back!).

[LAX_LHR]

One stop long haul routes eg BHX-ATQ-DEL simply add cost and complexity compared to DEL non-stop which as has been discussed might be more attractive to AI to do from MAN

Also, a 1 stop ATQ via DEL means that IF Qatar were to start BHX too, alongside Turkmenistan Airlines, AI will have no real competitive edge as all BHX-ATQ will be 1 stop service.

I think this is just a wait and see scenario, but given AI's history of starting and stopping MAN and BHX back when competition was minimal, it will be interesting to see how long they stick around in the face of gulf competition.

[Daza]

LAX_LHR wrote However, DELHI, and just DELHI, has a higher O&D from MAN than BHX. I will have to see if there is public link, but, the CAA have produced figures where MAN-XXX-DEL was around 75,000 pax per anum, with another 20,000 travelling over ground to other points to get to DEL.

I look forward to reading the figures when you have them. The figures I provided were from the 2001 census via Wikipaedia.

Also remember that Birmingham and the West Midlands also have strong industrial links to India such as TATA who own Jaguar (based in Mumbai) its not just friends and family that would use the service.

We will have to wait and see who starts services from where. If they start at all!

Remember that this is the Birmingham thread too and the Moderators have deleted post that keep mentioning airports other than Birmingham. :ok:

Daza

[LAX_LHR]

Whilst I cannot link the CAA stats, but to tide you over here is a snippet from 2010:

Annual O&D between New Delhi and Manchester is 54,000 passengers. Currently no non-stop flights operate between Manchester and New Delhi. Third biggest O&D market in the UK and one of the largest un-served in Europe.

Delhi Indira Gandhi International Airport (DEL/VIDP) | The Route Shop (http://www.therouteshop.com/delhi-airport/)

Now, according to the CAA, the market has grown since then, but hopefully it helps show if it was the 3rd largest o&d market back then, its a similar story now. The market has grown by 19,000 in just under 3 years, so shows the power behind a route too

True BHX has the weight of manufacturing behind it, so it seems both destinations have good reasons to get a route. I was hoping AI would go to B'ham and Jet come to MAN for an even spread, but, given the tie in with Etihad, I would put good bets on Jet not serving any extra UK points so it seems only AI is the option for regional flights to India.



Remember that this is the Birmingham thread too and the Moderators have
deleted post that keep mentioning airports other than Birmingham


If that's your hope then would be unfair given and by your wink smiley would be an underhand tactic by yourself to win the argument, as the nature of the article you posted was essentially MAN vs BHX given its title, and so seems legitimate to talk about the 2 for pro's and cons. Or is it so inconceivable to you that another airport could have the potential for an India flight that your only option is to hope for the other airports name deletion?

[Daza]

LAX_LHR wrote the nature of the article you posted was essentially MAN vs BHX given its title, and so seems legitimate to talk about the 2 for pro's and cons


All I asked was for your evidence. I provided evidence to support what I was trying to point out, you however did not.

LAX_LHR wrote Annual O&D between New Delhi and Manchester is 54,000 passengers. Currently no non-stop flights operate between Manchester and New Delhi. Third biggest O&D market in the UK and one of the largest un-served in Europe.


Which city do you think is second?

As for making it a BHX v MAN thread I was attempting to balance the argument. I have seen this before and the MODS will just delete the Birmingham thread if things drift from Birmingham Airport!

We all have our favourite airports and I have read your comments on other threads it is obvious that you have an interest in an airport in the North West of England, which is fine, my interest lies with Birmingham airport hence why my posts relate to Birmingham Airport. If someone challenges my posts all I ask for is evidence many people on here say all sorts of things often with little or no factual basis. The smile I added was an attempt to be conciliatory, people will disagree with you from time-to-time in a public forum.

Daza :)

[LAX_LHR]

All I asked was for your evidence. I provided evidence to support what I was trying to point out, you however did not

A Wikipedia article, which had some questionable figures at best, and quite frankly, wikipedia is as reliable as a forum such as this. Anybody can post 'facts' on there with little or no verification. Hardly watertight evidence to be frank.

Which city do you think is second?

It depends on which way they are talking, the way it is written seems like it is 3rd largest out of the UK to all countries.


As for making it a BHX v MAN thread I was attempting to balance the argument.
I have seen this before and the MODS will just delete the Birmingham thread if things drift from Birmingham Airport!

Lets just clear something up. You posted an article that brought MAN into the equation. I am merely discussing the merits of that article, which unfortunately means MAN has to be brought in it. How can you have a balanced argument if the other half of said argument 'cannot be mentioned'.

The smile I added was an attempt to be conciliatory, people will disagree with you from time-to-time in a public forum

Truer words never spoken, I am disagreeing with you, you are disagreeing with me. Its called debate, we are debating yet you seem to be getting defensive about the very form of debate?

[Daza]

LAX_LHR wrote Lets just clear something up. You posted an article that brought MAN into the equation. I am merely discussing the merits of that article, which unfortunately means MAN has to be brought in it. How can you have a balanced argument if the other half of said argument 'cannot be mentioned'.

LAX_LHR in post 248 you wrote In his dismissal of MAN, he has totally overlooked the fact Delhi is AI's main long haul hub, and Delhi on its own has a larger demand to MAN than BHX

You bought Manchester into the equation. You made a comment about the demand for Air travel between the UK regions and Delhi but didn't provide any evidence. How is this balance? :confused:

You also wrote A Wikipedia article, which had some questionable figures at best, and quite frankly, wikipedia is as reliable as a forum such as this. Anybody can post 'facts' on there with little or no verification. Hardly watertight evidence to be frank.

For the second time, the figures are from the 2001 census. The actual evidence can be looked at via the links at the bottom of the Wikipaedia page.

Daza

[LAX_LHR]

You bought Manchester into the equation.

Well Im going to disagree here but leave it at that, as we are going round on circles

You made a comment about the demand for Air travel between the UK regions and Delhi but didn't provide any evidence. How is this balance?


I have told you already, I cannot post the 'actual' evidence as it is not available by a publicly reachable link. What Im failing to understand is that a link to the 100% watertight Wikipedia states the population difference of Indian residents between Brum and Manc is a 'massive' 4000, yet you seem to be finding it totally inconceivable that MAN could possibly have more demand?!

However, as you continue to push this fact, here. Use the link below, pay your £75+VAT fee and you will see for yourself. Im certainly not going to pay over £75 just to settle a petty debate on an anonymous forum.

Survey Bespoke | Aviation Intelligence | About the CAA (http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=81&pagetype=90&pageid=7639)

And then hey presto, all the evidence you could possibly need :ok:

Personally, I think we should agree to disagree here, as I can see this going on for a while. You think one thing, I think another and neither of us are willing to budge.

[hammerb32]

The long and short of it is that the market to India from MAN and BHX is going to be very similar, given 100 miles down the road there's a myriad of choice to India it would seem the sensible option is for AI to start from MAN and service Brum and the West Mids from either LHR or MAN given the relative close proximity whilst better serving the population from the North West and Yorkshire with a more local direct option.

I'm sure we can all reasonably agree that aside from seeing a rather attractive 777 landing and taking off, and AI 777's are pretty attractive there's little to really gain from having them serve here. Jet would be different as they seem to have a strategy and a general clue but I'm really not so sure we should be falling over ourselves to attract AI. When they served here most people I know who were headed to India flew LH or EK due to the better flight times, reputation, price and service.

[Suzeman]

Airport Marketing departments will not be using Wikipedia for any of their passenger demand information. :ugh:

Very detailed route usage information is available from the CAA and other sources such as airline ticket sales and it costs. LAX_LHR obviously has some access to this info, but the more detailed you want it, the more it costs.

Convincing an airline the demand is there is one thing; airport facilities and politics also make up a big chunk of an airline's decision making.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: “More speculation on UK- India flights with Air India see the link below”

Never going to happen, AI is a shadow of its former self. Back in the day the AI route map included AMS, BRU, ORY later CDG, FCO, FRA, GVA, LHR and PRG in Europe, now it’s just CDG, FRA and LHR with reduced flights. Indeed, many of AI‘s routes these days are code-shares.

Whatever happened to this once great carrier!?

If there is a lot traffic between BHX and ATQ, it is well catered for by indirect flights, AI would need to offer direct BHX-ATQ. If one has to change at DEL why not at DXB (and/or the cheaper options)?
　
　

Quote: “Also remember that Birmingham and the West Midlands also have strong industrial links to India such as TATA who own Jaguar (based in Mumbai) its not just friends and family that would use the service.”

But they’re not speculating on BHX-BOM flights. As Bombay is the country’s largest city and its financial, commercial and business centre, one might expect more premium business on such a route, as opposed to VFR traffic on a cheapest fares between BHX and DEL or BHX and DEL/ATQ.



　
Quote: “True BHX has the weight of manufacturing behind it, so it seems both destinations have good reasons to get a route. I was hoping AI would go to B'ham and Jet come to MAN for an even spread, but, given the tie in with Etihad, I would put good bets on Jet not serving any extra UK points so it seems only AI is the option for regional flights to India.”

9W is unlikely to have a second UK destination, there's no need. Pax headed for regional destinations in India can be channelled through its huge domestic network via their hub at BOM (or through DEL for north India, such as ATQ). The same would have been the case for IT had it not gone “belly-up”. To do otherwise means going up against the well-established EK network with multiple destinations in both the UK and India.
　

　
Quote: “I know who were headed to India flew LH or EK due to the better flight times, reputation, price and service.”

Yes, service and reputation is important, and regrettably, AI threw this away at the end of the 1970s.



To summarise, despite the hype and the speculation, there will be no Indian carrier at BHX or MAN in the foreseeable.

[Skipness One Echo]

Whatever happened to this once great carrier!?
Well their management has always been poor, venal, inefficient and not terribly good, see also PIA. Along came a better product at a better price from Sandpit Productions and Game Over.
Air India have some very expensive B777-200LRs that they never needed and were instructed to buy (see corruption and incompetence above, also ongoing governmental interference). When they finally managed to make a case to get rid of them, no one would take them as they're in a very poor state for a state of the art aircraft. Air Canada had a look and said "Gee whiz no thanks and cheerio."
Emirates are a much better bet as they tend to at least operate on the same day they are scheduled to.....

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Well their management has always been poor, venal, inefficient and not terribly good, see also PIA. Along came a better product at a better price from Sandpit Productions and Game Over.
Air India have some very expensive B777-200LRs that they never needed and were instructed to buy (see corruption and incompetence above, also ongoing governmental interference). When they finally managed to make a case to get rid of them, no one would take them as they're in a very poor state for a state of the art aircraft. Air Canada had a look and said "Gee whiz no thanks and cheerio."
Emirates are a much better bet as they tend to at least operate on the same day they are scheduled to....."

No, before all that, in the 1950s/1960s/early 1970s when AI was the carrier of choice, the skytrax 5-star equivelant of that time. Hard to believe, but it really was the case! Surprisingly, PK was also a reputable carrier in those days.

[GayFriendly]

Without wishing to flog this subject to death it is also worth remembering that AI operated through BHX and not actually to/from BHX alone. Yes, flights were always pretty full but that was because they were loaded with Indian originating pax going to/from YYZ. The actual pax numbers starting/finishing their journeys at BHX were relatively low. With all due respect the BHX stop was more like a glorified 'splash and dash' from DEL/ATQ en route to/from YYZ that just happened to pick up/drop off some pax in BHX.

So if AI were to start at BHX and be competitive they would need to operate non stop to ATQ and be able to fill a 777 from BHX alone with that all important high yielding pax. Hmm?

If this did ever happen, I think AI could spell the end of T5 at BHX, they co-existed before as AI could only offer limited numbers of seats on BHX-ATQ, and possibly only at prices that did not appeal compared to T5.

[Planeaddict]

Do AI even operate 772's anymore? Would a 773 manage it if they went for that?

On the other hand, it seems that the A45 diversion is taking shape.

[rutankrd]

Air India Boeing 777 -222/222ER disposals:-
One is on racks and various skips in Southern France. Two have migrated to Omni Air operating US Military Charters and the remaining frame is in Russia.

The fate of the B77L ULH frames is also in the balance - 5 are due to leave for lease to Ukraine.

That leaves them with just three for the non stop India- USA flights !

At some indefinite future date a return to UK regional services will be with the B788.

[Navpi]

Having crossed swords with LAX on other forums trust me his information is ALWAYS 100 % correct, that is not patronising he is always usually on the money !

I also agree with him......on another point !

Good debate and banter is everything but it's a bit rich suggesting there s/b no mention of Manchester when to be honest practically EVERY BHX poster quotes what may or may not be happening at Manchester specifically in relation to BHXs own services !

It is continually used as barometer of whether a service should or should not start at BHX despite both markets being totally different !

If what you say is correct DAZA 50% of the postings on here s/b deleted
trouble is they originate from passionate supporters of BHX !

One other point the 1st go by Air India did terminate at BHX, the thru service was second attempt.

[LAX_LHR]

Hi Navpi

Thank you for your kind words, but, Ill be the first to admit Im not always right.

When it comes to news and some discussion, a lot of information comes from other sources so I either have to trust what they say or pass it off as boloney.
Some times my sources are honest in what they are saying, however plans change, such as Emirates using MAN for JFK transits. They looked very deeply into the flights, and decided not to proceed. And because Milan has been chosen, a poster on another forum has decided to basically call me a liar :rolleyes:. The latest case of this was Cathay pacific using the B747-800 up the road. Cathay had every intention of using the aircraft, however, the plan has since changed again, so technically, my reporting is now 'wrong'. But anyway, I digress.

In the cases of some discussion, most of it is my own opinion, mixed in with facts, so, people cannot take it as gospel. The discussion regarding air India is mainly my opinion. Both airports do have valid reasons to attract the service, and my argument about bringing MAN into the argument was based on the article link posted, it made it very clear that it was a MAN vs BHX scenario (although the author may read this forum, as since the debate ensued, the title of said article has changed!)

I think at the end of the day, people have to accept that comparisons between MAN and BHX will always be a feature on here.
Yes, some people do take it too far, but both airports have a similar demographic, both have similar airlines, and sometimes, if a service proves well at one, it is introduced at the other.

[crewmeal]

Nice post LAX_LHR. But this forum is largely based on rumours and quotes from other sorces in the press. It's sad that some have to hide behind their screens and abuse others. Questions people pose are usually answered by opinions which can be based on wild speculation and hopes from the spotters side. We've seen plenty of comments about QR now it's AI. The only reliable operation they did was back in the 80's when they operated a 707 via Moscow. Look what happened to Armenia. The world and his dog were going to use it. Now nothing.

My answer is simple, believe it when it happens. When the FO's are kicking the tyres then it's for real.

[chaps2011]

Crewman

How very true!

Chaps

[Hotel Tango]

Change of subject: Having arrived and, a few days later, departed over the 33 end, I must say I'm rather surprised that for all the effort that's going into this extension they didn't add a further 1000-1500 feet.

[rutankrd]

Why that Would be a waste of concrete and ongoing power consumption for the extra lamps.

BHX elevation is a high head dizzying 100m !

Average temperatures 14° C

Average Humidity 82%

Not exactly Jo'burg or Mexico City is it ?

3000m declared length (plus 150 of starter strip) will be more than adequate for the range of services aircraft types and load factors in such a temperate environment at Birmingham now and for the next thirty + years !

[nigel osborne]

LAX-LHR,

I think you provided a very good insight into Air India BHX and MAN and you are right their are more Bengalis in the West Midlands but as you say Bangladesh decided to operate from Manchester.

There are 2 schools of thought though..firstly airlines such as Bangladesh, Air India may favour Manchester as its further away from London than BHX.

However you can also say that BHX may gain more interest in the future if airlines cannot get more slots or capacity out of LHR.

BHX will be the next nearest main airport with a runway long enough in a conurbation with reasonably high population levels of people from the likes of India, China etc.

It all depends if there would be enough to merit trying flights from BHX. In there is in that case I can see BHX being more of an interest in some markets than Manchester.

Suppose time will tell.

Nigel

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: “If this did ever happen, I think AI could spell the end of T5 at BHX, they co-existed before as AI could only offer limited numbers of seats on BHX-ATQ, and possibly only at prices that did not appeal compared to T5.”

Won’t happen, AI won't go up against EK at BHX, T5 is safe.
　
Quote: “One other point the 1st go by Air India did terminate at BHX, the thru service was second attempt.”

IIRC, the second attempt was BOM to DEL then non-stop to BHX then on to YYZ as previously mentioned. In some respects this was a tech stop first, refuel, crew change, etc., with dropping off/picking up pax as a bonus.


There is not enough premium pax for non-stop BHX-ATQ (low yield VFR is not sufficient for the route to pay), it's better for EK, T5 and others to funnel this traffic through their hubs.


The only way AI would return to BHX or start MAN is if it was able to return to it's former role of channelling traffic from North America, Europe and Africa to Asia and Australasia through BOM like it did in the 1950s/1960s/1970s.


It is not in a position to do this for three reasons:
(1) it's too late, others (EK, QR, TK, etc.) are ahead of the game;
(2) AI no longer has a unique selling point in a crowded market, plus there are all the negative perceptions;
(3) overflying the USSR/Russian Federation and China was not allowed in the 1950s/1960s/1970s, now it is, so there's no need to go the long way round.


Conclusion: no AI at BHX.

[Planeaddict]

Speculation and there is stuff regarding BHX which has probably already been discussed here but makes for interesting reading.

Air India to start Melbourne, Washington Milan and Birmingham (as second point in UK) | anna.aero (http://www.anna.aero/2013/03/27/air-india-to-start-melbourne-milan-but-not-manchester-as-its-second-point-in-the-uk/)

[crewmeal]

I think the article contradicts itself in that the title states "Air India to start......", then goes on to say "We are looking to add new flights to a number of new markets"

In my view looking at and starting are two different meanings. Anyway believe it when it happens.

[Ringwayman]

That's the article Daza linked to on 27th March...

[OltonPete]

Back to what is happening now with a very low key start to the summer schedules mainly due to the early Easter and many new services starting in May or June.

Tomorrow sees Ryanair revert to four based and four destinations restarted and five away based aircraft giving 15 flights in total.

Monarch add nothing compared to last Sunday although GIB, MUC, GNB, SSH and FNC did not operate in April 2012, However this is over-shadowed by Munich ending on 22/4, Alicante reduced from daily to 5 weekly, Malaga from daily to 4 weekly, Larnaca from 5 weekly to 2 weekly, LPA 2 to 1, FUE 2 to 1, TFS 8 to 6, ACE 3 to 2, Palma 4 to nil, DLM 2 to nil, LEI 2 to nil, MAH 2 to nil and Faro from daily to 3/4 weekly.

Added to that BMI Baby operated 6 AGP's, 5 ALC's, 3/4 NCE, 2 MJV, 3 FAO, 3 BCN and 2 PMI in April 2012.

Turkish move to ten a week from Monday and SAS Stockholm goes back to 6 a week from mid month.

flybe swap a 175 and 195 with EDI which means a loss of seats for BHX but the base expands with ABZ reverting to BHX based. AMS goes three daily every weekday and Lyon starts May.

Swiss change to the RJ100 on the evening flight and Brussels Airlines remains at 5 daily in the week from mid month but 4 x Q400 (2 flybe and 2 Tyrolean). Air France settle to A318's with the A319/320 making the odd appearence.

Luthansa shuffle the pack with Berlin moving to morning and CR9's at the weekend. Hamburg remains 6 a week compered to 11 when it started and also moving to mid-morning from afternoon.

easyjet increase the Belfast on a Sunday with two flights and Geneva is daily until it ends on 14/4.



Pete

[Hotel Tango]

Why that Would be a waste of concrete and ongoing power consumption for the extra lamps.

What, do you mean they don't use energy saving light bulbs?!!

[PhilW1981]

OltonPete, that's a huge drop in bucket and spade routes from Monarch with no replacement. I'd expect to see FR fares very high as a result.

[OltonPete]

PhilW1981

The Monarch April strategy has been an eye-opener and totally at odds to FR at BHX and EMA and Jet2 at EMA (can't say for other airports).

I actually actually questioned this policy months ago with Monarch and as you would guess I got a curt reply but at least they responded. It probably seems a bit disengenerous when they are increasing their flights nearly 100% overnight between the 30th April and 1st May.

My reasoning was behind the fact that the local school holidays due to the differing dates used by various local authorities resulted in quite a long booking window from 22/3 to 16/4 leaving only a brief "quiet" period before May. A couple extra flights were added (Faro) but overall the schedule remained as per the first release less one Friday Tenerife, one less Munich and one less Grenoble.

I too have seen some eye-watering fares one included Malaga at one way £351 although to be fair other dates around it are much lower and that is probably the last seat on the aircraft.

Obviously gone for quality (yield) rather than quantity (bums on seats) and nothing wrong with that if it works. They flatly denied that they were protecting the EMA base as if you add the flights from the two Midlands bases some routes had similar frequencies to last April from BHX alone.

Hotel Tango

It came across that they had a enough trouble raising the money for the bit that is being built!

Pete

[Hotel Tango]

Olton Pete, as the expert with schedules etc., are you able to tell me if FlyBe will be using the DHC-8 or the EMB on the SUNDAY afternoon DUS in July.

[G-JNHP]

The Sunday afternoon BHX-DUS is by the E75 in July. There's a way to find out: using its website, do a dummy booking and look at the scheduled aircraft's seat map. If it has 21 rows it's by the DH4, 23 by the E75, and 31 by the E95.

[Hotel Tango]

Ok, many thanks for that.

[OltonPete]

Hotel Tango

G-JNHP is spot on but there are a couple of other ways to find out as well and that is on the flybe website via the connections timetable (can be awkward depending on the type of device you are using) with the other is the website amadeus.net, which is fairly accurate due to the link with the participating airlines and their websites.

The Q400 is now only scheduled on the Sun-Thu DUS night-stop service (Mon-Fri BHX arrival) now that Saturday has disappeared from the schedule (I missed that one).

Turkish Airlines

Today saw the first double daily operation on a regular basis with the morning even upgraded to the A321. Thursday and Sunday are the other days of operation as double daily.

At the present time, the frequencies are maintained into the winter schedule.

Pete

[Planeaddict]

RAF VC10 does a touch and go at Birmingham Airport. - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=30N9EMl6E3U) (yesterday)

And TK have increased their service to 10 weekly. That's what's on the playing field at the moment.

Turns out PIA are relaunching Chicago, via Barcelona. Seems only 10 years ago when they were flying via BHX. Oh wait, it was :8

[nigel osborne]

China Pattern,

Can you translate it for us non french speakers :}

Nigel

[pwalhx]

Courtesy of Google chrome:

The tour operator Transat ( T.TRZ.B ) could imitate his rival Sunwing and use of aircraft and foreign pilots over the next few years.

The Montreal-based company confirmed Thursday that it will integrate its fleet of narrow-body Boeing 737, and, starting next year. Transat does not renew the contract of affreightment devices of this size it had reached in 2009 with Canjet, a Halifax company.

This "internalization" however, should not create jobs at Transat, as pilots and flight attendants will be assigned to the Boeing 737 currently working in the widebody A310 and A330 of the company, whose number is expected to decrease in the coming years.

For cons, the seasonal layoffs should be less important in the future, said a spokesman for Transat, Debbie Cabana, during a telephone interview.

The Boeing 737 Transat connect Canadian cities to destinations in Mexico, the Caribbean and Florida.

Some of the new Boeing 737 fleet will be integrated permanently and another will be a seasonal basis, in winter, when demand is high for these destinations. Ultimately, Transat expects to have five small permanent carriers and six aircraft in winter.

By 2015, Transat expects that the number of A310 and A330 in its fleet from 21 to 16, a decline that was mainly due to the willingness of the company to reduce its ability to increase profitability .

If demand warrants, Transat may however increase the number of large carriers in its fleet involving foreign companies offering rental equipment and crews for specified durations.

Transat borrow and, at least in part, the strategy adopted by Sunwing, whose flights are largely carried out by aircraft and foreign pilots.

Transat has yet challenged in the regulators of this practice Sunwing.

To integrate the Boeing 737 to its fleet, Transat has recently drawn concessions to its employees. Some 1700 flight attendants and the company have agreed to concessions nonwage valued at $ 9 million per year. The number of attendants in the A330 from 11 to 10.

According to the company, the internalization of small carriers should result in savings of approximately $ 8 million in 2013, $ 15 million in 2014 and $ 30 million per year from 2015.

Remember Air Canada ( T.AC.B ) will launch this summer its new low-cost carrier, Red, targeting the market currently dominated by Transat.

Financial analysts who follow our activities Transat have welcomed the changes announced Thursday by the company.

The action Transat gained 3.2 percent Thursday to close at $ 4.85, the Toronto Stock Exchange.

[Tonyq]

Surely a most tenuous link to the BHX thread? :=

[pwalhx]

Did wonder myself, just provided a translation. Would say it would have little or no effect on BHX

[insuindi]

Following dates for the switch from LH to Germanwings ex BHX:

27OCT13 TXL-BHX
29JAN14 HAM-BHX
DUS-BHX will follow later in 2014.
http://www.lufthansa.com/mediapool/jpg/15/media_1511498115.jpg?blt_p=DE&blt_l=de&blt_t=Info_and_Services%3EPartner&blt_e=Content&blt_n=Geplante%20Umstellung%20der%20Strecken&blt_z=Der%20aktuelle%20%C3%9Cberblick%20zur%20Umstellung%20% 28jpg%29

[ATNotts]

A colleague returned from Vienna to BHX yesterday evening, and was, apparently one of 10 connecting over Brussels!

This might be exceptional, but I would have though that this might be an ideal route for BMI Regional or FlyBe on a five/six day per week, based upon that sort of load, and the fact that it is essentially a point to point destination rather than a major hub.

I would certainly give it a better chance of success than Lyon or Billund.

[insuindi]

Vienna is indeed a major hole in the list of destinations ex-BHX, regularly using Swiss via ZRH to get to VIE, and when going via FRA/MUC/DUS also often have familiar faces on both flights each way. CAA doesn't publish final destination statistics, or do they? That would make an interesting read.

[TartinTon]

I think BHXVIE used to be served double daily by Maersk if memory serves me right? Using CRJ200 a/craft.

[ATNotts]

BHX-VIE was certainly served by Duo, but I can't remember it being more than daily.

Any BMI Regional or FlyBe operation would need to be pitched primarily at the business market, much as BHX/STR is now. You're not going to make a bean filling E145s or E175s with city-break traffic.

[OltonPete]

Per the CAA BHX 625741 -08% rolling year 8908430 +3.7

Movements (and the reason why) 6140 -7% - rolling 82953 +0.3

Disappointing but Baby were going strong by the last week of March last year and Monarch just cut-back from their normal schedule on most routes.

If you want to look on the bright side you would have to say medium to long-haul picked up with Islamabad over 11000 just 500 short of the Heathrow figure, Emirates was down but a heavy 45K, United was up slightly as was Turkmen.

Business routes were either just up or down on the whole except Swiss due to the 33% cut in flights and Stuttgart (50% cut in flights).

Turkish was up 21% but it was daily compared to 5 a week in 2012.

easyjet Belfast was 11712 which was over 70% load factor.

Pete

[Occams Razor]

It seems that ATC are moving into the new tower today, looking at the NOTAMs.

[BHX5DME]

ATC were moving at 12.00 this lunchtime when they change shift.

[GayFriendly]

TUI have confirmed today through a press release that TOM will operate from BHX to Sicily in summer 2014. Doesn't say which airport but I assume to be Catania, which I think appeared in the BHX drop down list of lfights last year but was never loaded.

Not sure if already mentioned but BHX-MBJ looks to be operating all through winter 2013-14, I think it stopped for a while this winter just gone?

[OltonPete]

GF

I can confirm Cantania made it to more than the drop-down as I was interested in using it until I saw the prices. I know it is hardly a bucket and spade route but I could have quite comfotably got a week in Dubai for the same price if you like that sort of thing and I paid less for a week in Orlando (minus passes).

I know you have to pay for a bit of quality but I hope it is priced a little bit more reasonable this time round.

I still think a loco could do it at low frequency, summer only.

Almeria is obviously on the up with Thomas Cook using their own aircraft on one flight this summer as well as the Sunday flybe plus twice weekly ZB.

Spot on re MBJ, it has not run through the winter for several years now. Added to Sanford operating longer (third week in November) it is not a bad winter schedule.

Still if it is two 738's this summer with three 221 seat 757's it looks like at least 15000 fewer seats over the summer at present although I think the number of flights are slightly up. Will check those numbers though.

Pete

[splash&dash]

Thomas cook to start BHX-MCO non stop Easter 2014 on an A330. Unsure of schedule or when will go on sale. If bookings are strong it should continue into the summer. It's good to see an increase on this route at last. Would have thought Virgin may have tried it. They seem to do extremely well on this route from MAN and LGW. Maybe Thomson will react by upgrading their aircraft type to a 787 next year? 787s battery issues seems to be resolved now by the FAA so hopefully they will be back in the air within a week.

[nigel osborne]

Splash and dash,

Thomas Cook have removed from their online brochure their Easter 1 off Orlando flt from BHX yesterday, could either mean its full, or its chopped, hopefully the former. :ok:

Nigel

[GayFriendly]

Much as i'm sure Nigel we would all like it to be the former, I am fairly sure a year ahead it's the latter. No evidence of it on TCX website at all despite a lot of searching. Doesn't mean it won't come back though. SFB is underserved from BHX. Trouble is, for a few years now Orlando charter and scheduled capacity increases seem to have been focused on LGW, MAN and GLA. Unfortunately for BHX it is sandwiched between two of those!

[GAXLN]

As in Newcastle between Manchester and Glasgow. Airlines are missing a trick at Birmingham and Newcastle in this respect. The market would be far larger with more direct flights being made by people who cannot be bothered to go to other airports but want to fly from their local airport.

[OltonPete]

Flybe 1 BMI Regional 0?

Per GDS BHX - LYS by BMI Regional has been reduced from 6 to 3 a week before it starts. Website still shows six a week on a header but the dates I checked it was only bookable Monday, Friday and Sunday.

Smart move in one sense and hopefully by September another new route will be chosen and Lyon left to flybe.

Disappointing that Monarch is 4 x 321's and 5 x 320's but still a hefty increase in May, June and July but August set to be well down at present, as ZB operated 8 with Baby 4 in 2012 and this year it will be 9 Monarch with a few extra FR, BE but Thomson and Thomas Cook will be similar or a bit down.

Pete

[nigel osborne]

Gayfriendly,

It was really weird them advertising the one off April 2014 flight,then to remove it 3 weeks later. Certainly won't be lack of interest, our feeble 1 flt a week is almost filled within weeks each year !

Remember the bizarr situation last year with Canadian Affair, advertising a 2nd YYZ flt from BHX with a Monarch plane when no other airport was down for them..this was removed on the 2nd draft of the brochure..

Seems BHX must be a unique airport in the wrong way ? !

In a few days we will know for sure, but not holding my breath now although rumours of a TCX Orlando next summer persist..not sure what on though ?

Nigel

[splash&dash]

Nigel I wasn't aware of that. Like you said hopefully its the former? Curious why they have taken it off their website unless its just a 1 off charter?
Ref, BHX and NCL, yes there are huge gaps in between GLA, MAN and LGW with millions of people a fair old drive away who want to go to SFB, so I agree it's a bit of strange one why there aren't more flights from here. Then again, if the demand is overwhelming surely TOM would put on extra flights? Unless its lack of 767s?

[Daza]

Looks like Air India rumours continue and according to the Times of India the second UK destination seems to be Delhi-Birmingham. Link below
Air India plans to connect New Delhi with international routes this year - The Times of India (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Air-India-plans-to-connect-New-Delhi-with-international-routes-this-year/articleshow/19488800.cms)

Daza

[nigel osborne]

Daza,

Re Air India Delhi- BHX.

The rumours of a possible BHX link won't go away. Its the 3rd separate article in the business press that I have read on it.

However Delhi is not currently reachable direct off BHX present runway length ,but will be no problem when our runway extension opens next year.

So if it is this year then the bit saying "airports like Birmingham" could mean Manchester, which has a higher proportion of residents emanating from the Delhi area.

I am hopeful it means BHX though !

Nigel

[bhx bod]

Nigel.
You are assuming that the flight is direct.An intermediate stop at Amritsar(ATQ)
Which is how the previous service operated could be a possibility.Also if the 787
is cleared for services would that not be able to do Delhi non-stop?
Talking of rumours,has anybody else seen the Ryanair thread lately.
A posting yesterday suggested the first long haul RYR flights will be London,
Birmingham International to New York and Halifax.
I remember it being mooted that RYR were interested in long haul but am not aware that anything was set in stone,nor if any relevant aircraft have or are being acquired.Can anyone shed any light on this or is it just the usual rumour
mill doing it's stuff again.

[LAX_LHR]

A posting yesterday suggested the first long haul RYR flights will be
London,Birmingham International to New York and Halifax


I think you need to re-read that post.

It was taking the pee, saying that they would advertise BHX as London, and Halifax (Canada) as New York.

It was not a suggestion of services from BHX and London.

[Skipness One Echo]

Would BHX-DEL direct not depend on the equipment used? It's not a whole lot further than ATQ and the B777-200LRs are being redeployed, I suspect that amount of power could get there easily as they're hardly going to be stuffed with cargo?

[chinapattern]

Would BHX-DEL direct not depend on the equipment used?

Unless it's going via Moscow again :)

I wonder if AI actually opted for BHX in the first place, or have they been forced to settle for it with all these Jet/Etihad/MAN rumours.

[nigel osborne]

BHX Bod,

Nope even the 787 needs over 9,000ft to destinations of that length.Which is why I said it would need to be next year if direct.

Amritsar doesn't have a long haul base, that is an additional issue unless its bolted on.

Nigel

[groundhogbhx]

Why would a 777ER have a problem going BHX-DEL? The EK has taken up to 80t if fog is forecast, plenty to get to DEL and have options.

[LAX_LHR]

Lufthansa drops MUC down to 2 daily on Sundays from 26th October (winter season).

Both flights operated by E195.

[nigel osborne]

Groundhogbhx


You can't compare flying to Dubai against Delhi.. 7hrs to Dubai and 9 hours to Delhi :confused: !! = more fuel required = more runway length :ok:

China pattern

You make a good point.. have Jet chosen MAN forcing AI to BHX ?

Nigel

[GayFriendly]

I know a year is a long time (we have barely started this summer season!) but according to Thomson Faraway Shores online brochure (updated today I believe) from 18/7/14 BHX-MBJ and BHX-CUN are scheduled for the Dreamliner, Fri to MBJ and Sat to CUN, they are both 767 operated from May-Jul '14.

In Summer Sun brochure, Montenegro available from BHX in 2014 but sadly flights are to DBV with coach transfer. I have just been on holiday there, it's a stunningly beautiful country.

Looks like Sal has been chopped but Boa Vista still operates weekly

Pula is twice weekly

MLA flights stay with KM (weekly on Tues)

CTA operates weekly May-Sept on a Sunday

RAK contnues weekly

[Skipness One Echo]

You can't compare flying to Dubai against Delhi.. 7hrs to Dubai and 9 hours to Delhi !! = more fuel required = more runway length
It's not that simple Nigel, it's unlikely the India flight would be stacked with cargo for instance. Where did you get the 9000 ft value for the B787 btw. Can you link please? That sounds rather extreme.
Consider : Travel Distance Calculator and Map between World Cities (http://www.mapcrow.info)
BHX-ATQ 3983.15 miles
BHX-DEL 4230.80 miles

247 miles isn't the difference between a non-ER B777-200 which used to fly the former route and a B787 needing 9000 ft for the latter.

[OltonPete]

GF

Thats how I read it plus three Jetairfly Palma's on Thursday, Sunday and Monday instead of Thomson aircraft but two Tuesday flights? This would quite a decrease on 2012 as all were 235 seat 757's.

The Dreamliner schedule I assume is being loaded as I can't believe Sanford remains as a 763 when the other two long-haul are 787's from 18/7.

LAX_LHR

Munich at the weekend has been twice daily for about five years. I could see it dropping to two Saturday outbounds, one in and vice versa on a Sunday especially as you have posted on the MAN thread the LH Saturday night flight is not operating.

KLM

738 back on the night-stop in winter but F70 lunchtime

SAS

Stockholm only bookable until the week before Christmas

Pete

[Centre cities]

As OP states Stockholm only bookable until Christmas direct and then via Copenhagen until March when you can book direct Stockholm to Birmingham but not the other way, no connections showing that way either.

Work in progress or the jury is out. The flights for this summer appeared relativity late.

Centre cities

[nigel osborne]

Skipness one echo

Attach all the details on the 787 required, scroll down to "Take off performance" clearly shown as 9,225 ft at sea level assume this is max weight.


No doubt you won't be happy with this link either :ugh:

Boeing 787 Dreamliner : Analysis (http://www.lissys.demon.co.uk/samp1/)


Nigel

[Skipness One Echo]

Why in the name of God would you be at max weight going to Delhi Nigel? Those figures are taken at the extremes of the performance envelope!

[nigel osborne]

Skipness one echo,

you asked for the take off performance I passed them to you.

Your free to speculate and suppose time will tell.

Best wishes

Nigel

[OltonPete]

Source: CAA for passenger figures, BHX blog and libhomeradar for movements plus various seat-plan sites for load factors.

Difficult month to assess and calculate load factors due some missing data on libhomeradar, weather cancellations and strike affected fligfhts. I would say load factors in reality were probbaly higher due to cancellations and business pax take-up and blocking of middle seats. Some routes show nil pax, as these operated in 2012 but not 2013.

BRUSSELS........9900......43pax......49%

LARNACA...... 3119.....173 pax...81%

Copenhagen..... 7036.....80 pax.....68%

Chambery..... 367.......37 pax....47%?

GRENOBLE.. 3785......126..........

Lyon.....0

MONTPELLIER ......0

NICE................... 404........51 pax

PARIS (CDG)... 29993......94......80%

BERLIN (TEGEL)...3688....97 pax...69%

DUSSELDORF...14536....46 pax....54%

FRANKFURT ...22471.....99 pax...70%

Hamburg.....2853.....59 pax..69%

Munich.......16128.... 87 pax.....65%

STUTTGART......1604...31 pax.....40%

GIBRALTAR......1062....132 pax...76%

BUDAPEST...........0

Cork.....6638 .....54 pax....74%

DUBLIN.........49252.....120 pax..69%

KNOCK..........2550.....41 pax.....60%

SHANNON.....2775.....45 pax.....65%

WATERFORD..1760....49 pax....63%

BERGAMO.......3711.....143 pax...74%

MILAN (MXP).....2617.....52 pax...60%

ROME (FCO)......4817....134 pax..74%

TRIESTE ............ 216 ....108 pax...57%

VENICE..............3018.....116 pax..58%

KAUNAS............. 323......162 pax....85%

MALTA...............3002......167 pax...88%

AMSTERDAM....39421...94 pax....83%

ISLAMABAD.....11037....307 pax...80%

BYDGOSZCZ......4388...169 pax...89%

GDANSK................. 0

KATOWICE..........2833....157 pax...83%

KRAKOW,............2854.....158 pax..84%

RZESZOW...........3657.....141 pax....75%

FARO.....................7700....175 pax...86%

LISBON..................... 0

FUNCHAL..............2801....156 pax...89%

BRATISLAVA.........2982.....166 pax...86%

ALICANTE............13906.....183 pax...91%

ALMERIA......................0

BARCELONA.........5702......158 pax...84%

GIRONA..................... 0

IBIZA.......................191.......96 pax...51%

MAHON......................0

MALAGA.............13379.....176 pax...87%

MURCIA .................263.....132 pax...70%

PALMA .................3360.....168 pax....88%

REUS.......................218....109 pax...58%

ARRECIFE.............7572....189 pax...95%

FUERTEVENTURA..3608...180 pax...91%

LAS PALMAS..........3450.....173 pax..81%

TENERIFE (TFS).....13417.....186 pax..90%

GOTEBORG..................0

STOCKHOLM (ARN)..2971...83 pax 70% approx

GENEVA........11616....142 pax....89%

ZURICH........9380......76 pax....70%

DALAMAN...................... 0

ISTANBUL.....7018.....113 pax....71%

Ashkhabad....5210.....145 pax........80%

DUBAI..........45282.....365 pax.......85%

NEW YORK (EWR)..7687.....142 pax....84%

Pete

[Fairdealfrank]

Never going to happen!

[firstforfirstchoice]

Hi all,

Does anyone know what type of Thomsonfly B767 will be based at BHX for this Summer 2013?? I know over the winter it has been the ex First Choice ones, but the last couple of weeks it has been the original Thomson aircraft with more seats.

[OltonPete]

Thomas Cook

Flight only now showing TCX162 11/4/14 only returning two weeks later.

Is it possible that a high season 2014 schedule?

Glasgow's Orlando's don't seem to operate in August after the Scottish school Holidays finish or does the aircraft go to Manchester or Gatwick?

Fairdealfrank

Very confident reply especially when discussing one of the most erratic airlines in the world.

Pete

[LAX_LHR]

Flight only now showing TCX162 11/4/14 only returning two weeks later.

Is it possible that a high season 2014 schedule?


I was told the flight was cancelled, but then again, not many seems to know what this flight is actually about?


Glasgow's Orlando's don't seem to operate in August after the Scottish school Holidays finish or does the aircraft go to Manchester or Gatwick?


I think it goes to Manchester. The long haul schedule in 2014 from there seems rather bulky compared to past years.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Fairdealfrank

Very confident reply especially when discussing one of the most erratic airlines in the world.

Pete"

Trust me, Pete!

[justplanecrazy84]

Do you know where they are going?

[groundhogbhx]

Nigel, the EK usually takes around the 55 tonne mark for DXB, if the weather is bad in DXB they can take up to 80 tonnes and still hit MZFW without much trouble. PIA regularly take 65 tonnes to ISB with no problem. So why would a 777 have problems going to DEL from BHX? I seem to remember that they have done exactly that when the weather in ATQ was below limits.

[Daza]

Looks like a more definite plan is in place! :ok:
Air India will expand aggressively this year : Rohit Nandan - Livemint (http://www.livemint.com/Companies/f0v00kIp9u4GNxLGr0DTSJ/Air-India-will-expand-aggressively-this-year--Rohit-Nandan.html)
Daza

[OltonPete]

Ryanair

They have added a third weekly Perpignan on a Thursday for July and August, which fills a vacant slot - They always seem to have spare slots on a Thursday each summer at BHX.

Flybe The March Waterford average is better as I actually used 18 flights rather 17 - impressive figures even if Easter contributed.

Air India

I assume no change of stance Fairdealfrank? To be fair I am in the "see it then I will believe it" camp with AI & QR for that matter but plenty of hot air.

Pete

[mart901]

I flew BHX-WAT and back a week before Easter and there was about 50 pax outbound and around 70 returning.Really good to see, although I suspect the fact BHX is until next month the only route out of WAT is somewhat benefiting BE.

[GayFriendly]

To be fair I am in the "see it then I will believe it" camp with AI & QR for that matter but plenty of hot air

Right with you OP - AI talk so much hot air am amazed they don't fly balloons instead of aircraft. To be fair though they seemed quite happy at BHX last time round, so could this indeed be a case of third time lucky for AI @ BHX? Let's hope that the AI chairman who so boldy states that AI will fly to BHX in the article (in the next 3-5 months!?) hasn't been taking PR lessons from the chairman of QR......

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Air India at Birmingham
Looks like a more definite plan is in place! http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/thumbs.gif
Air India will expand aggressively this year : Rohit Nandan - Livemint (http://www.livemint.com/Companies/f0v00kIp9u4GNxLGr0DTSJ/Air-India-will-expand-aggressively-this-year--Rohit-Nandan.html)
Daza "

Still not convinced, AI is scint and reliant on endless govt bail outs (not unlike some southern Europe countries). How long can that go on?

Regretably, AI is not the "five star" carrier of the 1950s/1960s and 1970s, and needs to get back to that. A couple of years ago the star alliance refused it admission, must have been reasons for this?

[hillwalker2004]

Agree with others but just went on the Air India website and saw this...

AirIndia - Birmingham Airport (http://www.airindia.com/SBCMS/Webpages/Birmingham-Airport.aspx?MID=28)#

Is this a hangover from many years ago (!) or a sign of intent?

[bhx bod]

As far as the AI website is concerned who knows how up to date it is.
What I would like to know is in the interview it was suggested services could start in 3-5 months.Is that services will be announced in 3-5 months or actually flying in that time.There is a world of difference between the 2.
I could be mistaken but I thought generally speaking longhaul services are announced a good 6-12 months ahead of any start date.This I would have thought would be better as far as the runway is concerned,if that is relevant.
It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few months,especially if MAN get their Jet flights.Over doing capacity never did anyone any good!!

[spentaylor]

This statement on their Birmingham Airport page would seem to suggest it has not been updated from last time around:

"For passenger traveling on AI i.e. ATQ-BHX-YYZ then pax are held in transit lounge, No facilities as only a 1 hour stop."

Time will tell I guess

[LGS6753]

The source code on that page seems to indicate that it was originated in 1999!

[GayFriendly]

Do we really believe an airline that still has web pages from 1999 on their website that they are going to start a brand new long haul operation at BHX in 3-5 months? Hmmm.

[OltonPete]

First day seems to be off to a flyer with few delays and cancellations.

First scheduled flybe Lyon has gone and returned on time on the 175

Flybe's New Birmingham to Lyon Service Takes Off - Birmingham Airport (http://www.birminghamairport.co.uk/meta/news/2013/05/flybes-new-birmingham-to-lyon-service-takes-off.aspx)

Not the only confirmed news at BHX today involving flybe with MAEL taking over the BHX division.

News Details (http://www.monarchaircraftengineering.com/News/Details/111)

Great for BHX and MAEL as this should lead to more maintenance business. I don't expect the news to stop there but time will tell with what will happen to the old hangars.

Monarch only required 7 aircraft today but tomorrow was showing 8 and all 7 have done well today thus far but very noticeable that all aircraft used were Monarch compared to an Italian A320 at EMA as neither ex CY A321's made it there for the start of the season (not sure if they were supposed to). Also Manchester had a Spanish 747 EC-KSM B744 Pullmantur Air on MON634.

The only sort of negative factor is that last year Thomson were 4 x 757's in May and two 738's are here already although saying that 5 departures are showing in the morning and the original schedule I am sure only called for 4 until the third week in May. Another new route tomorrow for them after a tease last year with Marrakech finally starting.

Pete

[LGS6753]

Anna Aero reporting AI flights from BHX from autumn 2013.

[GayFriendly]

LGS6573, Anna Aero are just quoting from the same newspaper report on livemint as posted by Daza on 29/4/13

Anna Aero are however usually quite accurate with their airline route news, they predicted EK to ARN a while before it was announced and quite a few new TK routes this year, amongst others. Personally I am still in the 'believe it if I see it' camp on this one. Great news for BHX if it comes to fruition though

[Bagso]

The head honcho at anna.aero is Ex BHX so suspect it may be "hammed up a bit".

[BHX5DME]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=v7PvyEL4oMc

[getonittt]

I am always hearing the constant drone of BHX's catchment area being hemmed in by MAN in the north and London in the south but it could be larger than it seems. For instance , in some search engines if you are from the channel islands and want to travel via/to DXB/beyond it will give you the option of using Flybe from JER/GCI and connecting to EK38. I know this for sure as yesterday the Jersey flight was nearly 2 hours late and the crew were anxious to get some pax to the EK gate asap. Obviously Flybe have an interline agreement for this , do they have any others? and any future long haul flights may benefit from such regional routes BHX has.

[Bagso]

The BHX Avgeeks are usually a vociferous lot, I am amazed nobody has commented on this.

UK?s Regional Airports in Fight for Viability | Aviation International News (http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aviation-international-news/2013-05-03/uks-regional-airports-fight-viability)

Should it not read 8 plus BHX ?

Personally I put it down to shoddy journalism BUT I do think External Comms should have been all over this and had it retracted !

[BHX5DME]

Birmingham is Britain?s Most Accessible Airport - Birmingham Airport (http://www.birminghamairport.co.uk/meta/news/2013/05/capital-economics-article.aspx)

[BHX5DME]

http://changeopinion.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Analysis-data-by-Steer-Davies-Gleave-and-Capital-Economics.pdf

[LAX_LHR]

Great! Most accessible UK airport.

Just need the punters to use it now. BHX can produce as many reports as it likes and Paul Kehoe can blow as much hot air as he likes, but, until airlines can actually make money at BHX its all subjective really.

[Daza]

Birmingham Airport's accessibility is a dual edged sword! Just as Birmingham and the Airport are easy to get to certainly by road, it's easy for the people of Birmingham and the West Midlands to travel elsewhere, with huge choice of flights just down the M40 its surprising its supports the route network it does.
Daza

[Planeaddict]

Latest on the runway works:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7PvyEL4oMc

[nigel osborne]

Daza ,

Yes a good point of view.

Although getting stuck on trips to London on the M25, or spending nearly an hour on the tube getting from Euston to Heathrow don't make it as appealing as you suggest sothwards :eek:

Nor does getting regularly stuck in traffic going north on the M6 to Manchester Airport !!!



Nigel

[LAX_LHR]

Although getting stuck on trips to London on the M25, or spending nearly an hour on the tube getting from Euston to Heathrow don't make it as appealing as you suggest sothwards http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/eek.gif

Nor does getting regularly stuck in traffic going north on the M6 to Manchester Airport !!!


But again, flip this around, why would anyone from London or Manchester want to do this either, considering they also have a superior choice of destinations and frequency?

I think Mr Kehoe needs to address the fact 60% of the one hour catchment don't use BHX, yet he expects those from 2 hours away with more choice to use BHX? Not quite adding up really.

[North West]

LAX_LHR - you seem to have a habit, under the guise of various user names, of getting your knickers in a twist about anything remotely positive at airports which compete with MAN. Why ?

[LAX_LHR]

LAX_LHR - you seem to have a habit, under the guise of various user names, of getting your knickers in a twist about anything remotely positive at airports which compete with MAN. Why


Why not just stay on topic instead of worrying about what I post. :rolleyes:

[nigel osborne]

LAX-LHR,

Yes exactly BHX should be for the people and businesses of our catchment area.

So my point is that there are a number of long haul and short haul routes still not covered that BHX could support ,and I agree very few businessmen would want to travel outside London area to Brum.

Stay more local Mr K.

Nigel

[North West]

LAX - Kehoe is CEO of BHX and Chairman of 'Marketing Birmingham'. In a shock move, he is engaged in PR, marketing and other publicity generating activities for the airport and the Birmingham region. On a forum set up to attract comments from people who, it is assumed, have a good understanding of how the business works, i wouldn't have expected such a reaction to news that 'CEO promotes his own airport".

[LAX_LHR]

North West-

You seem to be missing the point entirely, and I cant work out whether you have done so deliberately as its not the first time you have taken exception to a post of mine and you seem to have overlooked the fact 2 BHX posters basically agree with me in principle.

Lets get something clear, I have not once said PK should not market the airport, I just happen to harbour the view that he could better spend his resources marketing in a different way. There is nothing wrong with harbouring this view, as just because he is CEO does not mean he is immune from making mistakes (again not saying he is fully wrong, but you seem to hold the view that as CEO he can do no wrong).

Now, my point, if you chose to read it or just ignore and make an assumption based on skim reading again, is that a report, probably costing tens of thousands of pounds, is telling me something I and many others already know about BHX being in the middle of the country and jut 2 hours away. Fantastic, insightful and totally new information.

Also, my point was that PK has stated himself that 60% of BHX's 1 hour catchment do not use BHX, but, out of nowhere he suddenly expects the 2 hour catchment, who, whether you like it or not, do have superior choice closer by to use BHX (its not 'slagging off' BHX, its a simple fact really).

[Planeaddict]

An afternoon spent spotting at BHX.

Planes @ Birmingham Airport - 6th May 2013 - YouTube

I'm not clear on the idea that airlines would come flooding in once the runway extension is officially opened. It's likely but with the amount of luck we are having at the moment with such airlines that BHX could manage at the moment (say, Qatar, Air India) it's hard to imagine.

I don't think Qatar will be materialising any time soon. Air India, at this moment of time it's a possibility.

[Hotel Tango]

Pity you didn't film from the other side, i.e. sunny side on. I was also particularly impressed with your sky and cloud scene at the end. :E

[Planeaddict]

Pity you didn't film from the other side, i.e. sunny side on. I was also particularly impressed with your sky and cloud scene at the end.

Yes, Windows Movie Maker didn't help much when it came to panning in which could have worked out better if I had a HD camera :O

[Skipness One Echo]

There's a dedicated thread on Spectators Balcony for these more spottery posts where you won't generate as many objections as may come flying your way posting on the BHX news thread :)

[Planeaddict]

Anyway, I passed BHX yesterday and noticed a sign which states the A45 is scheduled for completion in June. :)

[Hotel Tango]

Must be June 2014 by British standards then ;):E

[Occams Razor]

"Anticipated Completeion" is June 2013, there's still an awful lot of work to do but technically they still have 7 weeks for that to be true. I assume it will be dual carriageway all the way around, as per the current road?

[OltonPete]

Toulouse, Lyon and Gothenburg all start tomorrow.

Aircraft positioned in tonight with the first departures at 11.45 to Lyon and Toulouse and first inbound 11.15 from Toulouse.

Billund starts next month with Lyon reduced to three a week before it even starts.

With the Luxair short series of charters Gothenburg fairs well on BHX departures tomorrow.

Occams Razor

Yes dual carriagway, it was 8 weeks behind at one stage due to the glorious winter weather but coming along but June will be tight.

Pete

[GayFriendly]

Just been reading some news from anna aero about the Routes Conference in BUD.

MRS are targetting BHX as a prime new route (reportedly BHX is third on their shopping list)

MAG have at the top of their shopping list from EMA - NYC, DXB and DEL.....whilst from MAN they want PEK, VIE and PVG. These latter are routes I'm sure BHX would like too! Let's hope the team are charming the pants off airline execs and that there is some good news to announce soon. They sure need a headline carrier to start something to mark the opening of the runway extension next year?

BUD itself would be nice to have back too come to think of it!

[ATNotts]

Gayfriendly

MAG have at the top of their shopping list from EMA - NYC, DXB and DEL

If you think that Paul Kehoe has his head in the clouds sometimes, with this wishlist for EMA MAG are totally off the wall!

[nigel osborne]

Occams Razor,

Re new A45 loop. Its supposed to be 3 lanes wide not 2 as the current A45 is. Also incorporates the new service Road and new dedicated bus lane road for Centro .

Its claimed theres enough room left for the metro extension when needed.

Really tight bends ,must have a 40 or 50 mph limit when it opens surely.

Nigel

[Daza]

August start for Air India at Birmingham? :D
Air India to start Dreamliner flights from tomorrow - The Times of India (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Air-India-to-start-Dreamliner-flights-from-tomorrow/articleshow/20045682.cms)

[LAX_LHR]

Good news for BHX. I certainly hope they do not get LHRitis again, they can make a good market at BHX if they just stay focused.

[Planeaddict]

Good news for BHX regarding Air India (if it's true). I hope they can make it work for a longer period this time.

[nigel osborne]

Daza,

An August start for Air India would be great ,although AI have already announced that the first B787 flt into the UK with be DEL-LHR starting end of May, brought forward from June 1st.Not BHX as stated in this article ?

Therefore perhaps this newspaper article may be inaccurate...hopefully not.



Air India Boeing 787 Planned Service Resumptions: Update as of 10MAY13 | Airline Route ? Worldwide Airline Route Updates (http://airlineroute.net/2013/05/10/ai-787-may13update3/)

[justplanecrazy84]

Nigel, correct me if I'm wrong but it doesn't say BHX will be the first uk flight it just says it will go full scale global with Melbourne Birmingham etc in August but before that it says the first international flight of the Dreamliner will be launched may 22nd which adds up with DEL - LHR flight you have mentioned.

[bhx bod]

Just in the interests of research I tried to book a flight to DEL,but BHX is not on the system as yet.If August is when flights wil start then they will need to make some annoucement pretty soon I would have thought.
I know I have asked before but is there a minimum time scale from service announcement to actual start date?I know it varies depending on type of service,
ie low cost or full fare etc.It would be interesting to find out.:ok:

[nigel osborne]

Justplane crazy,

Nobody wants to see an AI 787 into BHX more than me, however a travel agent I know has just checked today and theres no sign of AI BHX-DEL even in the reserve system yet.

Lets hope their is an official announcement from Air India and BHX very soon ,so the August start date mentioned can be realised.

Nigel

[LAX_LHR]

Things in some airlines don't work the same way of others.

Im actually not surprised AI want an August start, they seem to strive on un-organisation. It will probably start on a 'selling tickets through a friend of a friend' type scenario, before hitting mainstream sellers

Its a bit like Libyan. They don't have any direct flights to MAN listed on their website, yet they seem to be filling A320's between 3-5 times per week!?!

[Bagso]

Good luck BHX !

Although it seems a bit hotchpotch does it not, would the airport themselves not make announcement and some good capital from this !

[ATNotts]

Bagso

I would really like to believe this story, but it wouldn't be the first time that the Times of India had written what turned out to be abject nonsense about Air India - I guess they don't make it up, but I reckon their are various factions within Air India, which is afterall essentially an arm of the Indian government, all trying to put forward their own agendas.

I will believe this when there are slots in place, the route is for sale on the website, and the 2nd flight is on it's way - BHX has had too many inaugurals, with the subsequent services never materialising!

Fingers and toes firmly crossed.

[nigel osborne]

ATNOTTS

I think its best believed when one actually lands.However there are now numerous mentions of them starting soon so perhaps it will happen this time.

Delhi before Manchester would be a big coup for BHX if it happens, unless Jet start out of MAN first.


You may remember many years ago Air India reannouncing BHX then just weeks later they started out of Manchester in a last second change .

Nigel

[Invicta DC4]

Visited a trade show at the NEC today, saw some adverts in the bridge link from the rail station saying how well the NEC is connected to the world with links to New York, Dubai etc. They also say Los Angeles/Beijing from 2014. I understand that there has been quite a bit of speculation about a service to China once the runway extension is completed, LA is a new one on me and highly unlikely IMO. Do they know something, is it the usual wishful thinking or have I misread the adverts?

[LAX_LHR]

Delhi before Manchester would be a big coup for BHX if it happens, unless Jet
start out of MAN first


No chance of Jet starting MAN before August, especially with the Etihad deal just going through.

[crewmeal]

A rather smug Will Heynes from the airport has just said on BBC Midlands Today that the runway extension will create an extra 2500 jobs by the end of the next decade. Can anyone from the airport enlighten me on what these extra jobs will be?

[nigel osborne]

Invicta DC-4

Re NEC advertising;

Yes you are right BHX does want to operate to Bejiing and LA, however in the short term expect these are probably code shares to be launched, perhaps Emirates and United.:{

Nigel

[nigel osborne]

Crew Meal,

Probably no more smug than than John Atkins Manchester Airports city Director , who recently said the new World cargo development planned by them would create 1,800 local jobs, and 20,000 lead on jobs from the Enterprise zone.

How many cargo services have MAN lost in recent years (theres a recent list on the MAN thread) !!


Thats what these airport top brass get paid for, bigging up stuff when its a load of smelly stuff in reality, whether they are from BHX.MAN or any other airport.

Nigel

[Laasjet]

It was also said that it would create 250,000 jobs in the region.

It is part of the game to hype everything up in the hope that the proverbial "pie in the sky" will turn into reality.

[LAX_LHR]

A rather smug Will Heynes from the airport has just said on BBC Midlands Today that the runway extension will create an extra 2500 jobs by the end of the next decade. Can anyone from the airport enlighten me on what these extra jobs will be?


The next decade? As in 2030? I would hope that 2500 jobs can be found in 17 years, otherwise something has gone drastically wrong somewhere.
Even growth without a runway extension should see to that surely?

Based aircraft (crew), hangars, new rampers, shop workers, check in staff, ATC, caterers, cleaners, back office, not to mention down the supply chain. 17 years is a long time, especially in this industry.

[Invicta DC4]

Nigel

You can already fly from BHX to Los Angeles with United via Newark and Beijing via Dubai with Emirates so I don't understand why they are advertising from 2014 if that's the case.

[Bagso]

I don't want to hijack the thread but in response Nigel the Manchester Airport City Project is actually thee largest construction site in the UK, in terms of scale its thee largest since the Olympics,

It actually trebles the size of the land area taken up by the airport.

Airport City Manchester (http://www.airportcity.co.uk/)

.....but totally agree "the suits" do make some silly statements !

[ATNotts]

the runway extension will create an extra 2500 jobs by the end of the next decade

If you want to get some airtime or column centimetres of free publicity from our increasingly shallow and lazy media, both broadcast and print, best way to do it is to make a wild claim about "how many jobs" are going to be created.

I think you'll find that if all the alleged new jobs that O'Leary claims for this and that expansion the Spanish unemployment rate would be nearer 10%, and even UKIP would be crying out for immigrants to the UK!!

[nigel osborne]

Invicta DC-4.

There have certainly been no announcements or even rumours about either starting next year, so doubt if relates to such.

Therefore can only be code sharing whether its LH, SK,AF or someone else Im afraid.

Nigel

[insuindi]

Maybe BHX should not forget to take care of its core business - in April it took a true battering, in fact by far the biggest loss of any big UK airport.

Pax April 2013: 649881 -7.4%
http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?catid=80&pagetype=88&sglid=11&fld=201304

[TSR2]

But on the bright side;

Pax Rolling Year 8,856,770 +2.9% on previous year.

Bigger increase than Heathrow (+0.3%) or Gatwick (+1.4%).

[ATNotts]

insuindi

Not wishing to act as the airport "spin doctor" but the timing of Easter this year will have had an impact on the figures, certainly leisure travel wise, and also, with the turmoil following the loss of bmi Baby there was always going to be a fairly significant drop.

That said, they ain't very good -and a few exotic colour schemes and reggies on long haul aircraft aren't going to drastically improve the numbers. BHX core business is Europe, and as you say, that's where the attention needs to go developmentwise.

[chinapattern]

a few exotic colour schemes and reggies on long haul aircraft aren't going to drastically improve the numbers. BHX core business is Europe, and as you say, that's where the attention needs to go developmentwise.

Disappointing figures but hardly surprising; one just hopes that the BHX team are not neglecting their efforts to secure more key European links rather than simply chasing after fantasy long haul flights to grab the headlines and ‘big-up’ the runway extension.

[crewmeal]

I would imagine and indeed hope that the figures for BHX and every other airport will rise over the coming weeks as everyone is p****d off with this lousy weather. With the press forecasting another wet summer, now is the time for airports and carriers to get their act together and allow customers faultless travel.

[Hotel Tango]

The press forecasting a wet Summer makes me optimistic. After all, didn't they forecast a dry and scorching May? ;)

[OltonPete]

The April figures would have come as no surprise to BHX and anything less than 5% down would have been near on impossible due the staggering loss of capacity.

Clearly the timing of Easter did not help but that is only part of story and as for the other part only only really guess work from me but it revolved around Monarch's Midlands strategy for April.

Monarch of course added an aircraft at EMA for April compared to 2012 but slashed BHX services beyond the level of 2012 even taking into account what BMI Baby operated last year.

Some examples of this are the routes to Malaga, Alicante and Faro.

All were daily in April 2012 plus 6 BMI Baby's to AGP and ALC and Faro 3.

2013 - AGP 4 a week, ALC 5 and Faro 3 -yes a combined 10 FAO to 3.

All three routes also operated at EMA in April 2013 where they were up against FR and Jet2 on all or most. Also with the expanded Jet2 and FR operation it left EMA a pretty impressive 4% down.

Even taking into account that tradtionally EMA has a fine record of attracting "bucket and spade" pax, the figures below are staggering considering the overall passenger difference generally between the two airports: -

EMA - Malaga 26217 +42% compared to BHX 15591 - 37%
EMA - Alicante 27709 + 21% compared to BHX 20232 -23%
EMA - Faro 18863 +18% compared to BHX 8649 -48%

If I was EMA I would be making hay with these figures. EMA had more pax on every head-to-head route to Spain except the Canaries with Palma the highlight at 16742 to BHX's pathetic 5712 - However Monarch did'nt operate from either but they went from 4 a week in 2012 at BHX to nil.

Did Monarch choose to cut BHX to support EMA against FR & Jet2? Well Monarch denied it when I e-mailed them but of course some would say they had little choice as the base was new and they had to operate some flights.

One explantion for the ZB BHX capacity cut was lack of aircraft due late deliveries - absolute rubbish I'm afraid. Look at the utilistion of the BHX aircraft during April and most days two of the four based aircraft did only one flight a day and on Wednesday not even that.

All in in my opinion the reason was a mix of early Easter and Monarch not taking for the BMI Baby slack whereas airlines did at EMA - to a certain extent.

Pete

[crewmeal]

OP a briliant comparison with well supported figures. Seems as Monarch aren't all they made out to be diluting routes between 2 airports. I wonder what management would make of these figures? Perhaps they should go after Norwegian who seem to be expanding heavily with their eyes on UK airports. I'm surprised Easy haven't expanded in to BHX now they have established themselves on BFS/GVA.

[getonittt]

I'm surprised Easy haven't expanded in to BHX now they have established themselves on BFS/GVA.

Obviously it's the Belfast base that will get the pat on the back for the success of the BHX route rather seeing any potential from Brum .

[FRatSTN]

Remember Ryanair starts it's summer schedules in late March and that meant Ryanair more than doubled in size overnight at East Midlands. Monarch, Thomson etc. start on the 1st May so that hugely disadvantages Birmingham for April figures since it has a much smaller Ryanair presence and hasn't really expanded on last summer like East Midlands has.

FlyBe also have bought an increase to East Midlands flying the Belfast, Edinburgh and Glasgow routes up to 4x a day and now base an aircraft there. 4 Dash-8's is slightly up to compared to the once or twice daily flights BmiBaby operated with a 737-300/500. Perhaps FlyBe has seen a decrease in the number of passengers flying these routes from Birmingham as a result.

East Midlands will certainly be up on last year and probably will be every month this year, perhaps significant growth in June, July and August since BmiBaby had cancelled some routes (including Belfast, Edinburgh and Glasgow) by then and was no expansion by Ryanair, Monarch, Jet2 or FlyBe at that stage. Growth will probably continue into 2014 with an extra Jet2 aircraft and a slight increase with Thomson. It all depends whether FlyBe and more so Ryanair deliver at least the amount they have in 2013. So yes, Birmingham has got some tough competition with LCC's at East Midlands but there's certainly no major cuts or lots of lost passengers to East Midlands.

Now Monarch has started its summer schedule, the May figures at Birmingham won't be nearly as bad. There's certainly no need to go e-mailing Monarch about cuts when they will be expanding to 9 based aircraft (5 A321 and 4 A320 I beleive) this summer, compared to 2 at East Midlands!

[OltonPete]

crewmeal

I would say in Monarch's defense, I believe traditionally yields can be poor on some routes in the post Easter period until May.

Next year Easter is almost in May :eek: so not so much of a problem.

However even if they thought there was too much capacity from the Midlands to Spain, it does not explain why some of the other routes did not operate (Nice, Dalaman etc) at low frequency. Also Almeria has traditionally operated at BHX in April and not a sniff.

getonittt

The Belfast figures are not brilliant compared to easy's overall load factor (65% in April) and fares in the mornings are still generally low but I would describe it as promising and of course easyjet as you would expect quickly identified the lack of seats on a Sunday and some evening services by increasing capacity (will be in the case of Thu & Fri).

I have to say the rumour mill is awash at the moment even with an airline that apparently has no interest in BHX but I suppose some enquiries are just that enquiries and nothing comes of it.

FRatSTN

Flybe. BHX - EDI and GLA was up in April, which was a nice surprise but BHD took a major hit but that is to do with easyjet more than EMA I would have thought.

The reason I e-mailed Monarch was from frustration as yet another month of friends etc having to depart from airports miles away to MED destinations due to lack of capacity at BHX where in the past and future it is generally fine.

Okay is was only one month and in general Monarch at BHX has done well other than the the failed MXP & MUC routes but the April schedule was so off the wall I thought it worthwhile asking the question and of course Monarch did have the decency to reply which was very impressive.


Pete

[clivegore]

I am one of these missing customers from BHX which I prefer to travel from.
I had three return flights to Malaga in April but had to make 2 from EMA and one from Luton due to unavailable flights from BHX. Didn't Ryanair run daily to Malaga in April 2012 ?
Kehoe for god sake get on this and if Ryanair won't increase and Easyjet won't come then you need to be outside Norwegians office every day.

[OltonPete]

clivegore

The example you give is exactly what I have heard although you will see when I post the April stats later that most of the these BHX med routes did have between 10-15% empty seats averaging over the month (although those empty seats are not always at the right time) but these were sky high prices compared to other airlines at other airports. I suppose that is just supply and demand but it is frustrating.

To be fair to Ryanair they have operated a good 90% of their summer schedule from day one and Malaga was daily, Alicante in fact was up on 2012 at 9 weekly but Palma remained 5 and Faro 3. I think overall Ryanair have increased their BHX flights this summer but rather than shouting from the rooftops they have been rather quiet about it - not very Ryanair like but I suppose that is due to the base has stayed at 4 but come August with the away based flying it is as good as six based if you count the Dublin flights.

I don't particularly want to knock Monarch, as I am sure they have industry experts running their yield-management but it was such a drastic change on 2012 and not in line what was happening at some other airports but as FRatSTN stated it changed in May with what was on offer.

Pete

[OltonPete]

Sources: -

Monthly passenger figure: CAA (2012 in brackets) - a couple destinations are missing as the data is suspect (Sharm & Chambery)
Average pax per flight: BHX Blog and Libhomeradar
Load factor: Estimates based on planespotters.net and airline websites (2012 in brackets)

I went into the archive to find last years post to add the load factor in brackets to compare each year. Obviously it is not like for like as Easter was fully contained within April in 2012 rather than just 1-2 weeks in 2013 (school hols ended around the 14/15). Also of course BMI Baby had four based aircraft of which three were flying full-time. Monarch used I think four or five last year and had the same this year but sitting around a lot more.

In other words the above is a pretty good reason why the headline figure were so bad.

The good news is that in general the load factors are much better and in a month where Easter only partly affected the figures.

The big positive is Emirates as load factor and pax both up in a month Turkish increased. In fact the major hub destinations did well with FRA, MUC, DXB, IST, BRU, CPH up with only AMS (remember baby operated 2 x 149 seat aircraft a day compared to flybe's 78, 1-3 services a day with higher fares) and Zurich which suffered a 33% cut in frequency but was only down 24% and increased load factor by 6 points.

There are some disappointments such as Stockholm but it is early days and the Berlin figures seem to be cooling as well, which is a worry.

Another crude way of looking at it is to say that two thirds of the April loss (32000 pax) was accounted for on just four routes alone (Faro, Alicante, Malaga & Palma), which is only about 6% of the schedule destinations - quite a staggering stat.

BRUSSELS........9050 (8366)......46pax......57% (55%)

LARNACA...... 3363 (5000).....198 pax...92% (89%)

PAPHOS..........nil (3349)..........nil pax....nil (87% LF)

Copenhagen..... 7146 (6979).....78 pax.....78% (71%)

GRENOBLE....1314 (1192)......110 pax.......65% (76%) - 2012 easyjet only

MONTPELIER ......2187 (2387)......122 pax....64% (68%)

NICE................... nil (3438)........nil..........(72% LF 2012)

PARIS (CDG)... ...31654 (30171)......94 pax......80% (80%)

BERLIN (TEGEL).....4489 (nil)....75 pax...60% (nil)

DUSSELDORF.....16075 (13171)......53 pax....61% (55%)

FRANKFURT ...23763 (23737)......83 pax...71% (66%)

Hamburg.....2687 (2036).......56 pax..65% (50%) - flybe 2012 LH 2013

HANOVER....3699 (5241)....62 pax.....74% (60%) - daily from double daily

Munich.......14428 (13353).... 83 pax.....64% (73%) 2012 LH only but 2013 ZB until 22/4

STUTTGART......3401 (2909_...39 pax.....50% (43%)

GIBRALTAR......2364 (nil)....91 pax...52% (nil) - the promising start faltered

BUDAPEST...........0 (2367)....nil pax....nil (78%LF)

Cork..............6178 (6371) .....52 pax....73% (74%)

DUBLIN.........42700 (41458).....121 pax..67% (69%)

KNOCK..........2489 (5232).....42 pax.....59% (73%) WW 733 replaced by EIR AT72/42

SHANNON.....2678 (2976).....45 pax.....63% (69%)

WATERFORD..1569.(1554).....46 pax....57% (33%) - could be higher as posible cancellations

BERGAMO.......3530 (nil) .....136 pax...72% (nil)

MILAN (MXP).....3486 (5425).....58 pax...58% (41%) - ZB & BE in 2012)

ROME (FCO)......5343 (8513) ....157 pax..80% (67%) 0 ZB & WW in 2012

TRIESTE ............ 1897 (1951) ....119 pax...63% (57%)

VENICE..............3643 (3592).....140 pax..72% (61%)

KAUNAS............. 2570 (2870).....161 pax....85% (84%)

MALTA...............2976 (2976)......165 pax...87% (87%) - did the all the same pax fly again!!!!!!

AMSTERDAM....40985 (42671)...92 pax....81% (78%)

ISLAMABAD.....8818 (10121) ....259 pax...75%

BYDGOSZCZ......4340 (4070).....167 pax...88% (90%)

GDANSK............2805 (2587).....156 pax....83% (86%)

KATOWICE..........3953 (4232)....152 pax...80% (86%

KRAKOW,............2534 (nil) .....158 pax..84% (nil)

RZESZOW...........2455 (????).....164 pax....87% (88%) - based on 15 sectors - one RZE divert?

FARO.................8649 (16765)....166 pax...84% (80%)

LISBON.................nil (1749).......nil pax....nil (73%)

FUNCHAL......... 1993 (nil) ....125 pax...72% (nil)

BRATISLAVA.........4423 (3844).....170 pax...90% (85%)

ALICANTE............20232 (26365).....169 pax...85% (84%

ALMERIA......................0 (3363).....nil pax....nil (87%)

BARCELONA......... 4991 (3913)......147 pax...78% (73%) BMI Baby in 2012 & FR 2013

GIRONA....................2172 (4787).....121 pax...64% (75%) - frequencies added to BCN by FR at GRO's expense

IBIZA.......................3216 (3392).......124 pax...65% (69%)

MAHON......................0 (2489)...........nil pax....nil (72%)

MALAGA.............15591 (25862) .....166 pax...84% (83%)

MURCIA ................5299 (6982).....147 pax...78% (73%) - 2012 WW & FR)

PALMA .................5712 (13464).....136 pax....72% (75%) - WW, FR & ZB in 2012 just FR in 2013

REUS......................2894 (3544)....121 pax... 67% (72%)

ARRECIFE.............7277 (8103)....173 pax...87% (84%)

FUERTEVENTURA..4425 (4720)...170 pax...87% (69%)

LASPALMAS..........4576 (6002)....176 pax..89% (83%)

TENERIFE (TFS).....14450 (16075) .185 pax..90% (???)

GOTEBORG..................0 (1049)......nil pax

STOCKHOLM (ARN)....2409 (nil)....57 pax 45-50% approx

GENEVA.................3947 (4952)....123 pax....79% (89%) - WW & U2 in 2012

ZURICH..................8836 (11609)....74 pax....75% (69%) - 33% reduction in flights

DALAMAN.................. 0 (3409).....nil pax.....nil (88%)

ISTANBUL............9885 (7428).....115 pax....73-80% (75-82%)

Ashkhabad...........4932 (5629).....145 pax.......76% (83%)

DUBAI.......... 40817 (39490)...340 pax.....79% (77%

NEW YORK (EWR)..7764 (6650).....149 pax....88% (89%) 2012 saw few rotations in mid April

Pete

[getonittt]

Thanks for sharing your stats OP .

In fact the major hub destinations did well with FRA, MUC, DXB, IST, BRU, CPH up with only AMS

And don't forget DLH were on strike 22 APR so the figures could have been even better for the German hubs .

[OltonPete]

getonittt

The DUS figures were already impressive without the loss of three return trips on strike day but I suppose some would have a gone on the flybe.

No alternatives for FRA or HAM but the Berlin actually operated - the only flight.

Waterford - I have used 34 sectors but libhomeradar had four missing so the load factor might be higher and perhaps Jamie2K9 or 78Whiskey could confirm.

Pete

[Planeaddict]

Air Berlin are operating a charter flight this Sunday using an A330.

They have a new growth plan: Birmingham Airport pushes forward huge new growth plan - Birmingham Mail (http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/local-news/birmingham-airport-pushes-forward-huge-3876552)

[chinapattern]

What are your thoughts on a new outdoor spotting facility, possibly situated near the fire station, giving a good view of the terminal as well as the runway, and being rather close to the taxi-way?

Might I suggest that you go back to page 5 and have a read of what everyone said the last time you raised this question? I doubt opinions have changed.

[crewmeal]

Whilst it should be applauded for forward planning I can't help thinking that the creation of 20,000 jobs is a little unreal. Without harping on previous posts regarding airline expansion, where are these jobs being created? The only evidence I can see for the immediate future is Monarch's hanger which is being constructed along with various hotels and shopping areas that are being planned.

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/local-news/birmingham-airport-pushes-forward-huge-3876552

[nigel osborne]

Crewmeal,

Talking about diluting routes, don't forget TOM they also split both European and more so long haul routes between EMA and BHX.

Being a BHX bod, I would have thought it would be more cost effective to have just 1 long haul Midland base at the much larger conurbation area ..Birmingham.

Then again sure EMA bods would rightfully disagree with this, and sure TOM wouldn't offer EMA long haul if there wasn't a demand for such.

Nigel

[OltonPete]

Monarch

Nine based from today and all were Monarch aircraft with one the old'uns gracing the tarmac (G-MONX). However BW was used for the two new services which were to Bordeaux and Split.

Alas rumour has it for one day only (at present) with at least one flight planned to be covered by another airline tomorrow. Saturday saw a Titan 146 on the Nice, therefore a light load or a long walk for the rest of the pax ;). A second flight appeared briefly on the departure screen but I don't think that operated.

Ryanair

I noticed that Krakow today was operated by a Krakow based aircraft with the BHX based aircraft that was used, now "rests".

The extra Faro on a Friday in August which I reported a while ago is actually a day swap from an extra Monday service which operates in July.

Small Planet

Seems to have been pushed back to 5th June and the Friday Skiathos to late June unless all earlier flights are completely sold out, which I doubt.


Pete

[Daza]

OP wrote Small Planet

Seems to have been pushed back to 5th June and the Friday Skiathos to late June unless all earlier flights are completely sold out, which I doubt.

Package holidays to Skiathos are bookable on Olympic holidays website. Maybe they have sold the flight only allocation on the flight? The booking engine is showing the flight is operated by Small Planet if you choose a package on 14th June. I have family booked on that first flight. Also looking at their booking engine Birmingham-Corfu is bookable from the 3rd June 2013. :ok:

Daza

[Planeaddict]

BHX needs an Easyjet base - could do wonders as far as connections are concerned.

[chinapattern]

BHX needs an Easyjet base - could do wonders as far as connections are concerned.

Erm, Easyjet don't offer connections.

[ATNotts]

BHX needs an Easyjet base - could do wonders as far as connections are concerned.

Leaving aside the fact that, as chinapattern has said, EZY doesn't do interline, where would they be likely to fly from BHX that would really offer anything in the way of connections that aren't already offered across FRA, MUC, AMS CPH, DXB etc?

What BHX needs are services to the major European cities that are currently not served directly. These need to be business friendly services, and as such for the local economy would be best offered by major carriers offering minimum daily services, and business friendly times.

[GayFriendly]

What BHX needs are services to the major European cities that are currently not served directly. These need to be business friendly services, and as such for the local economy would be best offered by major carriers


Indeed, I couldn't agree more. However, assuming you mean places like MAD, PRG, HEL, LIS, WAW, ATH, well BHX has (for now) bugger all squared chance of even getting major full service alliance carriers to operate to such cities, let alone at daily frequency. The likes of TP, IB, AY, LO and OK are happy to codeshare into BHX with their partners who already do or not bother with it at all. These airlines don't even (with the exception of AY and TP) operate into MAN.

I think an increased EZY presence at BHX would do wonders, they operate to, or indeed have bases in a lot of the city gaps in the BHX European route structure and offer relatively business orientated products. As a point to point airline though, can BHX profitably fill an A319 or A320 to said cities without the interline pax who I am sure help keep many of it's current full service airline hub routes viable. Therein perhaps lies the answer to why there has never been an EZY base at BHX.

[Skipness One Echo]

BHX needs an Easyjet base - could do wonders as far as connections are concerned.
Without being sarcastic, can someone shed some light on why EZY haven't had a proper crack at BHX? There's a few ex BA routes that had a market that I'd be tempted to look at. Anyone know? Perhaps coupled with the reason EMA failed?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Barbara Cassani told me it was purely down to the high price per passenger that BHX charged. Delusions of grandeur.


WWW

[crewmeal]

If that's the case then why don't BHX management offer incentives to carriers to start up, restart or develop routes. They are busy forecasting employment figures for the future at the moment, so there is a chance to 'put one's money where one's mouth is'

I'm sure EZY have looked at the route structure at BHX and I feel they would have come in earlier even before MON if there was money to be made. If BHX management aren't offerering incentives to them then maybe that's why they won't expand.

[hec7or]

I was told at a meeting several years ago that BA would not tolerate low cost airlines operating at BHX or MAN and the airports were advised by BA to disincentivise low cost operations or they would be reviewing their own position at these airports.

Very political, and FR only opened bases once BA had disappeared and I would guess that Easyjet had better things to do with their fleet than going back to BHX having been politely declined in the past. Easyjet were picking up the pieces of GB Airways at Manchester but had no similar obligation to operate out of Birmingham.

My source at the meeting was the commercial director of a BHX based airline so I trusted that he knew the politics of the day.

[EI-BUD]

FR only opened bases once BA had disappeared


In a surprise move FR opened a base at BHX, this was dont quite quickly, and came afoot EI negotiations with BHX and BFS at the time. EI publicly stated that they would choose BHX or BFS, FR quickly rushed in and set small bases up at BHD & BHX. EI as we know did subsequently choose BFS. In this instance FR proclaimed how fantastic BHD management were in concluding negotiations so quickly, 6 weeks MOL said.

FR will keep a foothold in BHX and that is in support of the EMA operation, if the charging structure is modified upwards at EMA, they can play 'we will shift services to BHX'.

BHX would be a logical base for EZY, but for them moving there would mean starting practically from scratch, and little point opening new routes that overlap with FR, as FR would react. However, the opportunity is to serve new routes and particularly to airports that are not likely to be FR destinations, e.g. CDG, AMS, GVA, MXP, CPH, TLV.. they would comfortable challenge BE there but given a major deal has been done we may see a softening of the pressure mounted on BE by EZY.

EI-BUD

[chinapattern]

assuming you mean places like MAD, PRG, HEL, LIS, WAW, ATH

Madrid, Valencia, Lisbon, Budapest, Marseille, Prague, Cologne, Vienna, Athens, Pisa and Verona sounds like a good line up to me.

One can dream!

[nigel osborne]

Crewmeal,

Re incentives for new airlines to start up;

All airlines operating new routes get hefty reductions for a number of years out of BHX, on a sliding scale.

Think you will find that most main airports such as MAN,EMA etc offer the same.

Easy Jet has always complained about low yield potential out of BHX.

However with the success of Belfast, Geneva and Grenoble out of BHX for them,lets hope they change their minds.

Nigel

[crewmeal]

Madrid, Valencia, Lisbon, Budapest, Marseille, Prague, Cologne, Vienna, Athens, Pisa and Verona sounds like a good line up to me.

One can dream!

Most of these routes were served successfully by BA and Maersk back in the 90's and up to 2001. Why they can't be restarted remains an open discussion.

[OltonPete]

easyjet

I always thought it was the passenger service charge which was the sticking point although I believe that yields were modest as I monitor the booking engine and fares were low until this last winter when things seemed to have improved.

New route today for both airport and airline I believe but alas only IT.

Flybe Preveza, which if I am not mistaken is flybe's first ever regular Greek destination albeit for Cosmos etc.

Summer 2014

Thomson once again showing seven Palma flights with the third Jetairfly restored. Noticeable on charterflights that Monarch Mahon and Malaga are showing for 2014, the Mahon with ZB22 flight numbers and Malaga with its schedule flight number yet Monarch have not released their flights as yet. I suppose these are the seats Thomson have bought as part of their packages.

Crewmeal

Some of those routes did have impressive load factors (yields?) although I can say Cologne has operated in many guises and the only consistant aspect I noticed........ half empty aircraft. I think pre Christmas and high summer it did okay but beyond that?

Pisa - another odd one, tried by MyTravelite and Ryanair and again outside of July and August produced some decidely average figures.

Budapest was promising until it was pulled and BMI Baby seemed okay on Lisbon and Prague I am sure will be back soon.

Pete

[E75toDUS]

Cologne has operated in many guises and the only consistant aspect I noticed........ half empty aircraft

I think it suffers from being halfway between DUS and FRA, which are both well served. Obviously FRA is a major economic centre and hub, whilst DUS is also better placed for Ruhr from Duisburg/Oberhausen up to Dortmund, which means its catchment is a lot bigger than CGN, particularly for business travel.

Given you've got Germanwings hubbed at one end, and BE at the other, if it was viable, one of them would presumably be doing it.

[pwalhx]

It is a bit of a chicken and egg with Cologne, I fly there every year for an exhibition, Well I fly to Düsseldorf as I have a more extensive choice of flights and its 30-40 minutes on the train then to central Cologne. More often than not the flights I can use to Cologne are daily only and at poor times.

[Hotel Tango]

Yep, did the CGN run both with GWI and HLX. Never saw better than 60% loads. Times were OK for me as I was a leisure traveller. The route is too thin for multiple frequencies and it won't attract enough high yield business travellers on single daily rotations. Could perhaps just work with a twice daily 50-70 seater operation Mon to Fri.

[insuindi]

Confirmation by LH of the date I posted earlier this year for Germanwings to take over TXL-BHX, 27OCT. This comes with both a schedule change on that route as well as a drop in the lowest return fare to £70 on lh.com EDIT: (if booked via lh.com including luggage and drink/snack). Via germanwings.com only TXL-BHX-TXL is currently bookable, no flights bookable yet for BHX originating trips... little bug there.

Schedule 6/7 for the winter.

[GayFriendly]

As a fairly regular user of this route I do hope that Germanwings offer the same high standards of service that LH do, the crew and service on these flights is excellent - I shall miss the Berlin Bear chocolates in the sandwich snack bags! At least the route is continuing!!

[Hotel Tango]

You won't be getting any "free" refreshments with Germanwings. All has to be paid for. I'm a regular on the DUS with Eurowings (flying for LH Regional) and enjoy their service too. I'm bracing myself for the changes when they begin ops on behalf of Germanwings next year.

[insuindi]

If booked via lh.com your ticket would include drink/snack & luggage. Via germanwings.com it won't, unless you book their smart fare. Now, in theory lh.com price matches the smart fare price - so no gain. But as can be seen, in the transition lh.com sometimes matches the cheapest germanwings.com rate, but incl. of mentioned services (current £70 deal is such a case, includes all). I do not suspect this irregularity to stay for long though.

[Hotel Tango]

Must make life a little complicated for the CC ?

[OltonPete]

The timetable has 2014 loaded - there are a very changes but yet to give it a considered look.

The really big change is April due to the late Easter in 2014 with schedule I would say at least doubled if not more.

Highlights at first glance: -

Almeria back in April, joined by Barcelona and Bodrum.

Dalaman in April from nil to 5 weekly.

Venice, Mahon and Nice don't make April with Rome just three a week but can't have everything.

The way Kefalinia is shown in the timetable and Cosmos indicates that this might be coming on line from mid May as possibly an pseudo-IT like they sell Corfu, Chania and Zante

Pete

[Invicta DC4]

Can anybody tell me if Monarch are operating the Barcelona flights this winter? Tried booking flights, but Monarch's site is not showing any flights after November 2nd.

[OltonPete]

Invicta DC4

It didn't operate last winter so there is a good chance it won't this year but it is starting earlier in April.

However if you click on the Ski section on the Monarch site Barcelona, Grenoble and Venice are offered along with the transfer times.

The flaw in this though is Barcelona stops from2/11/13 until April, Venice is even worse as the route re-commences in May 2014.

Not sure but the ski slopes of Venice might lack a bit of snow in May :eek:, okay it is not Venice itself but still pre November and post April it will matter little where you are south of BHX in Europe you would have to be very optimistic for snow in these areas ;).

Hopefully some changes will occur when the schedules are formally released for summer 2014 although IO am hoping for some winter changes as well.

Ryanair

They have now released Barcelona for winter at 4 a week, three operated from the BHX base and one from the BCN base.

BTS - 2 a week as per last year
BZG - nil yet but 3 a week last year
DUB - 3 daily Mo-Sa with the morning Dublin based, 2 on Sunday
FAO - 2 a week from the Faro base
FUE - 1 a week
GDN - nil as last winter
LPA - 1 from the LPA base same as last winter
KTW - 2 as per last winter
KUN - nil as last winter
KRK - 2 as per last winter
MLA - 2 as per last winter
BGY - 3 as per last winter all BHX based
PMI - nil - two down
RZE - nil at present compared to 3 last winter
TFS - 2 - as per last winter

Dublin is up as Tue-Thu in Dec, Jan and early Feb was twice daily

Already released
ALC - 3 per week same as last November
AGP - 3 per week same as all last winter
ACE - 2 per week same as all last winter
LDY - 3 per week - one down on last winter


Knock

Still not showing for winter 2013/4 or EI Regional Dublin flights and now just a couple of days away from the summer increases on Dublin.

Pete

[ssflyer]

Thanks-I presume the GRO flights will no longer operate through the winter schedule,only BCN from BHX.
Two years ago the GRO/BHX summer flights were 4xweekly,last year 3xweekly and now down to twice weekly for this year (others to BCN) and whilst the loads were always good the yields cannot have been up to scratch-hence the very high fares on the twice weekly flights this year.
There could be a move to move more BHX flights from GRO to BCN next year which makes North Catalonia without flights from the Midlands-unless you fly into Perpignan which is nearer than Barcelona.:sad:

[Planeaddict]

Have we heard anything from Air India yet? If they are starting in August then it should be bookable.

Apparently the A45 should be done this month. The road itself is near to completion, but everything else around it needs to be cleared up (the remaining sand etc).

[nigel osborne]

Planeaddict.

Nothing is ever nailed at BHX until it lands ,so don't expect AI until that happens.

One of their 787s went into LHR earlier today though.:eek:

Nigel

[Skipness One Echo]

One of their 787s went into LHR earlier today though
The lunchtime flight, AI115 / 116 has finally had the ULR B777-237LR replaced by a more sensible daily B787-8. It started quite soon after services resumed and shares the apron with the QR B787-8 at the same time.

[OltonPete]

After a decent weekend with Neos 767 subbing for ZB, Titan 767 subbing for Thomson, Air Berlin A332 and Air Europa Venice charters it is back to reality with business as usual.

BHX- Billund is back tomorrow with a new bmi regional service filling the spare morning slot for the E145 departing BHX at 07.00.

Olympic Holidays have their first dedicated flight of the season but not as expected with Small Planet but Enter Air Boeing 737-400.

From Tuesday Ryanair increase Barcelona to six a week for a few months and Thursday sees LDY increase to five a week until September.

Aer Lingus Regional also operate the first early morning departure at 07.15 on the new ATR72-600 making six dublin flights and ten EI in total.

Pete

[j636]

Not sure if posted already but Ryanair have added a 4th daily Thursday flight to DUB all of a sudden.

Departs Dublin 09.05
Departs Birmingham 10.35

Seems only for month of June.

[OltonPete]

j636

Not posted yet as I only spotted it on the BHX website last night and the reason it stops is that it turns into Perpignan in July and August but yet to reappear fro September.

This also makes a staggering 10 departures to Dublin on Thursday!

This Thursday also sees Ryanair add an extra Barcelona and LDY. Almost a silent relationship between BHX & FR these days very little is heard with the odd e-mail here and there from the airport promoting some FR services.

Emirates

As May and June are traditionally the "low season" months for EK I could not help noticing the lack of downgrades this year compared to last. From 1/5/2012 - 5/6/2012 I counted around 21 three class 77W/772ER's (346/354/360/364 seat aircraft) but this year just 4. Have EK finally turned the corner at BHX? I suppose the May stats will give a better idea.

However I am sure figures will decrease as Ramadan is not far off and they do fade away for period.

Pete

[Balair]

This also makes a staggering 10 departures to Dublin on Thursday!

Plenty of profit to be made there then?.....not!

[OltonPete]

Keeping on the theme of Ireland - the EI Regional Dublin frequencies have been added for winter making six a day except the Saturday night-stop does not operate but more importantly neither does Knock by the look of it.

Times are as follows with the BHX departure time first

07,15 - 11.20 AT72 daily ex Sun outbound

08.25 - 07.50 A320 daily

11.45 - 17.20 AT72 daily

15.15 - 14.40 A320 daily

17.45 - 21.10 AT72 daily ex Saturday inbound

19.50 - 19.10 A320 daily

Cork - Winter

08.50 - 08.15 AT72 daily
17.00 - 16.30 AT72 daily

Shannon

17.10 - 16.45 AT42 Daily (13.00-12.35 Saturday)

Net increase of four movements most days on winter 2012/3

To add balance Ryanair is still showing 20 weekly departures for winter 2013/4

Pete

[Guest 112233]

Is the Knock service ceasing for the Winter Season ?

CAT III

(PS Vested interest here.) I ave used the Airport Web site but its too slow to be usable. Updated - Yes I tried a Nov booking no flights available.

[OltonPete]

CATIII-NDB

I can't be certain but the rest of the EI Regional schedule appears to be bookable.

At present the Knock is operated by the Shannon aircraft and this winter Shannon is back to a straight turnaround at tea-time which was the time it produced decent load factors in the past and no doubt yields.

I was hoping that Knock would have been incorporated by utilising the new EIR based Dublin ATR72 at low frequency rather than the usual daily service but it seems that idea is not on the table.

The main problem is probably the Ryanair service from East Mids which is four times a week and fares which will eventually be half that of EI's (not at the moment).

Pete

[Guest 112233]

Thank you: I will be sorry to see that one go - But FR re EMA yes -money talks loud.

CAT III

[mart901]

NOC could well re-appear out of the schedule woodwork at EIR. SNN could potentially be re-timed I'm sure thats happened on more than one occasion, its not unknown for winter schedules to roll out in July.

[jabird]

This also makes a staggering 10 departures to Dublin on Thursday!

Plenty of profit to be made there then?.....not!


Surely whole advantage of DUB<>BHX is it is a quick rotation with stead demand at either end year round. Yields might not be great but if there's a spare couple of hours in the day, the a/c might aswell be used, especially as overland UK flights are a distant memory for FR.

[BHX5DME]

Birmingham Airport expected to announce second runway | Central - ITV News (http://www.itv.com/news/central/2013-06-07/birmingham-airport-expected-to-announce-second-runway/)

[jabird]

As long ago as 2007, Birmingham Airport said it wanted to expand the current runway

That's not the history as I remember it. I don't recall BHX having any interest in a second runway (as there was just no need for it), until the 2003 White Paper started getting airport to think about 30 year master plans.

At that point, a 2nd runway was added in, and the phantom Rugby Airport was brought along for the same reasons now being argued for this new runway, namely to act as overflow for London.

Rugby Airport was a daft proposal no airline wanted, and the current airport is nowhere near filling even its current terminal capacity, let alone the potential capacity it could expand to with an additional terminal and optimal use of its current runway.

Then a new runway would have been SW of the current site, now they are saying a new terminal could go around the HS2 station, and a runway could go to the east. Just where exactly?

I thought we did all the fooling around at the start of April, not June.

[nigel osborne]

Jaibird.

Re BHX 2nd runway you are bang on.

Devised 2 runway plan 2003, and I have an Evening Mail cutting showing the plans from 2005.

Can someone explain exactly where this new 2013 plan for the 2nd runway would go, if its over by the proposed HS2 means will have to be the other side of the motorway , which is nearly a mile from the airports current site ?

I must be getting it wrong ?:confused:

Nigel

[jabird]

nearly a mile from the airports current site ?

Well in many other airports (esp USA), that would be perfect for a wide spaced parallel runway as there would just be fields in between.

I can just about work out where you might get a runway in there, but how the hell would you get a taxiway to link them together?

Otherwise, this is not a second runway, it is a completely new airport.

[nigel osborne]

Jai bird.

Well yes seems that way, as they are talking of a new terminal as well.

So what happens to the new MAEL ! ?

Nigel

[BHX5DME]

Nigel

More details of the plans to be announced tomorrow !

The existing terminal, runway and MAEL hanger would stay.

But a new terminal is planned alongside the HS2 rail station which is a probably a mile from the existing site and the other side of the M42 !

BHX did stress that these plans are very long term !

[jabird]

BHX did stress that these plans are very long term !

You mean by the time we've stopped using offices or going to conferences, trade shows and rock concerts, they'll be able to demolish the office park, LG Arena and the NEC complex to make way for the taxiway?

[nigel osborne]

BHXDME

Thanks for the update, gee thats what you call enough dual runway separation !

Nigel

[jabird]

Tory graph posted this earlier this morning, but says there are no costings as yet, but would need public subsidy, unlike LHR.

Birmingham unveils ambitious airport plans - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/aviation/10108718/Birmingham-unveils-ambitious-airport-plans.html)

More to point, still no explanation of how you can get this 2nd runway "on wasteland within the airport's existing footprint".

Also, as we hear time and again on this forum, they are confusing load with yield. Yes, Birmingham is more central geographically, we all know that. However, for an airport to work, it needs to be closer to the commercial centre of gravity, and like it or not, that's still somewhere around (and not north of) Watford.

[Leofric]

You appear to be behind the news, guys. According to the Coventry Telegraph:-
"The Asian investors are interested in plans.... to link the Coventry and Warwickshire rail network including a new Ricoh Arena station, to a combined HS2 and Birmingham Airport interchange station.
Speculative plans for a third airport runway next to the air and rail interchange have also now emerged."
(Italics mine)

[nigel osborne]

Jaibird.

Also if LHR is rammed with 60 odd million and 2 runways how would BHX be able to cope with 70 million with 2 runways..cloud cuckoo stuff.:E

Lets just have a decent airport that caters for more routes for Midlanders, off the current 1 runway with the extension !:ooh:

Nigel

[jabird]

Also if LHR is rammed with 60 odd million and 2 runways how would BHX be able to cope with 70 million with 2 runways..cloud cuckoo stuff.

Well theoretically, they could go down the DXB line and sandwich toast racks (if you'll excuse phraseology) full of A380s between two parallel runways, but that would mean some very interesting engineering around all the existing transport corridors.

However, we're still back to the same problem - for a hub to work, it needs a good mix of O&D and conx, and the O&D with the money is still down in the southeast, whatever the fantasists may dream.

To build a hub based on conx alone, you'd have to start from virtually nothing, then somehow leapfrog LHR - how?

[bhx bod]

I am getting a sense of deja vu in this thread again.
True there may well be some pie in the sky about the latest press release,but for my money bhx's important period is the next 6 months to 2 years.
If at least 2 or 3 major airlines have not announced or started new longhaul routes in that time,then bhx could find itself in a very embarrassing situation.Even some more flights to the Caribbean and Canada would be something.Time will tell!!:)

[Fairdealfrank]

Headline in today's "I":

"Birmingham bids to unseat Heathrow as the world's busiest airport"

have just stopped laughing.


The article on page 4 bangs on about journey times on the HS2 with quotes from Elmdon's chief executive, and about it being geographically central for the UK (think that Ringway would be more central(?)). However, nowhere does the article mention how they plan to shift premium traffic and carriers away from Heathrow.

Heathrow is not full because it's the only UK airport.

Heathrow was declared "full" back in the 1970s, and it still has just 2 rwys, so the Elmdon management are right to express a desire for a second rwy despite the airport nowhere near full. Start now and it may be available in 50 years.

[chinapattern]

True there may well be some pie in the sky about the latest press release,but for my money bhx's important period is the next 6 months to 2 years.
If at least 2 or 3 major airlines have not announced or started new longhaul routes in that time,then bhx could find itself in a very embarrassing situation.Even some more flights to the Caribbean and Canada would be something.Time will tell!!

Indeed, when you think about it this December will mark the fifth anniversary of when a new major legacy carrier arrived at BHX and lasted more than a few months (Turkish).

[jabird]

I googled the i then clicked on the BHX article and got this:

i Assistant Editor's Letter: Setting the record straight


If you ask me, the joke has gone on far too long already.

So am I supposed to go behind a paywall to get this :mad::mad::mad:

[GayFriendly]

World's busiest airport, have just fallen off my seat laughing. BHX have gone from saying 'we will have a runway extension to take LHR overspill' to 'actually we will be bigger than LHR'.

There's thinking big and there's simply fantasising. The 'like Germany' argument BHX is using is flawed. The UK is not like Germany and will never have an airport hub system like theirs. Economic and political power are (like it or lump it) in London, that's why high yield pax want to fly there. Bavaria is a large and very prosperous region (much more prosperous than the West Midlands) with easy access from large parts of Germany and Austria, hence it's well developed range of long haul flights.

BHX can't seemingly sustain scheduled services to a whole host of European cities and there is no obvious sign of a rush of long haul flights starting next year - even current operators aren't expanding their current long haul offerings. If they don't announce at least one new headline carrier and destination off the back of the extension, forget taking anything from LHR. And relying on HS2, really you want to hang your coat tails on something that is very far from being built?

Sure, plan for the future but do it whilst getting the basics right and serving the true air travel needs of the West Midlands. In any case don't we have a MUC style hub in the UK, it's called MAN!

[jabird]

In any case don't we have a MUC style hub in the UK, it's called MAN!

Not really - MAN is very good at providing long haul (and short) legs into other airlines' hubs. Most l/h a/c based at MAN are doing leisure routes.

MUC is very much a hub in its own right, but the distribution of airports around Germany isn't just about wealth. It is a simple fact of Geography - Germany, like the USA, has many cities with different roles, and not one single dominant "primate" city, which is the case in the UK, France and so on.

Now LYS is on the TGV, Lyon is France's second city, but do they come up with such daft ideas?

OK - maybe that's a bit far from Paris, so I'm not being fair. I'm all for connecting airports to the cities they serve by rail - but depending entirely on rail connections to a completely different city which has more than enough runways to serve itself is just a different model entirely.

The precedent for this being?

Now I wonder how that Madrid South Don Quixote is coming along :ugh::ugh:

[Fairdealfrank]

Because of it's central European location, MUC also has a role channelling transfer traffic through to parts of central/east Europe/Balkans that do not yet have direct links with the wider world.

MAN is the nearest we have in the UK (rather than BHX), but it's more like LYS and BCN than like MUC.

[ATNotts]

Has Paul Kehoe and the BHX management team completely fallen off their collective trolley?!

It really is a crying shame that their efforts are being directed in a more constructive direction. When BHX' single runway becomes half as well used a Gatwick's then, sure, lets start thinking about extra capacity.

This is beginning to look like a fig leaf for the lack of new carriers and new routes to make good use of the extra concrete that will be available from 2014.

[GayFriendly]

And I dread to think how much all this PR guff and wining and dining of MP's, business leaders etc is costing! It beggars belief that you can't fly non stop from Birmingham to Madrid or Warsaw yet BHX think they can attract 70 million passengers. To fly to where exactly?

AT Notts you are spot on - I too am sensing a load of hot air to cover for the fact that the runway extension (as of now) appears to be an embarrassing white elephant with no new long haul flights planned for next year (adding optimistically - yet). Dear me, PK and his team are just digging themselves ever bigger holes to sink in.

[SWBKCB]

What everybody is forgetting in this debate is Paul Kehoe's other masterplan, which was to shut all those unnecessary regional airports - channel in all those displaced pax plus all the Londoners rushing off the HS2, and BHX does become the centre of the universe!:D

[nigel osborne]

ATNOTTS.

Not gone off their trolley.. but sitting at the mad hatters tea party !

Nigel

[Bagso]

Sorry to intrude on private grief but they should move the Weston Park Balloon Festival to Elmdon as there is so much hot air about !

Analyse this, it was drawn up by the airport, local business and a few MPs and was portrayed as though;

"second runway on the way"

Rather than a more factual analysis of the report which is ONLY a submission anyway !

"Birmingham wants a second runway"

Southampton, Bristol, Luton, EMA, Leeds etc will all say the same !

Basically they could have said absolutely anything, it's a wish list with no material substance.

That said I do think the BHX media team s/b highly congratulated, where they are failing to attract any kind of substantial momentum in attracting new airlines , destinations or increased frequency they are more than making up for with grandiose statements.

This story managed to get on the front cover of The Independent, was mentioned in The Telegraph, it was also carried on BBC Midlands and Central.

The Champagne must have been flowing to get that kind of exposure, it must have been some party......if only there was at least something to cling to !

Some of the references were at best desperate !


BHX connects Istanbul, whoopeedoo
Airlines are buying new aircraft Eg RYR 175 Well they ain't sticking them in BHX ......unless its parking for the Winter !
Business in the West Midlands needs links to S America, well they will be dancing the samba on the streets of Kidderminster tonight with that one.

Even the map was bizarre, including as it did all the largest cities of the UK in the footprint of Manchester NOT Birmingham
ie Sheffield, Leeds , Bradford, Liverpool and Manchester itself.

Many airports would die for this kind of publicity, the only failing was providing anything other than a claim for public funding or something more tangible in terms of demand from airlines to actually back it up, but hey 10 out of 10 for spin !

[insuindi]

Even the FT picked it up. I'm still worried that they are forgetting about their current bread and butter business, European connections from BHX are not exactly getting better (let's hope bmi regional will be able to sustain their routes).

[GayFriendly]

Business in the West Midlands needs links to S America, well they will be dancing the samba on the streets of Kidderminster tonight with that one.

After reading your comment, as a former resident of Kidderminster I felt duty bound to call the takeaway there run by a Mexican. I am pleased to report a street party and free fajitas this weekend to celebrate the proposed BHX - South/Central America links ;)

Insuindi - the fact that you state that you hope BHX hangs onto the BMI routes shows exactly what state the airport is in, hanging onto the coat tails of a small, regional airline as it's only major provider of new routes this year (excluding the new ZB seasonals to SPU and BOD).

[chinapattern]

Reading through the press releases, I believe the ‘bigger than Heathrow’ comment was indeed just a bad case of poor journalism as I don’t believe even for a minute PL truly believes BHX could ever eclipse LHR. Besides, how could an expanded BHX take over LHR with just two runways when LHR is already crying out for an extra one?

It’s good to see the airport having aspirations but they need to be more realistic in their ambitions. As has already been suggested, this merely seems to be a cover up for the fact that the runway extension isn’t attracting the carriers they were hoping for so they’ll just throw out another ambitious plan to grab the headlines. If you look at the facts; BHX hasn’t been able to attract any new carriers that don’t require the extra tarmac so I don’t see how they can seriously think they’ll achieve any of this.

However, I’ll try and end on a positive note and say that the runway isn’t going to be done for about another nine months so there is always a chance an airline such as QR or a Chinese carrier is indeed in the bag and it is being kept quiet until nearer the time for a bit of extra fanfare.

[hammerb32]

Indeed, gobsmacked how many people are taken by poor journalism.

[bhx bod]

I indeed do hope that chinapattern is right and all this is a smoke screen for new services that may be announced in the near future.
If you remember plenty of noise was made about the return of a ORD service,but so far nothing.Then it was the turn of QTR,and although not BHX's fault,(re 787 problems),still nothing.More recently it was Air India saying that they will re-start services to BHX,again nothing further to date.
None of these services were rumoured either as they all appeared in some form of official press releases.
Maybe we are being impatient as we all know it takes takes time to set up new air services and maybe something has already been sorted.
Any 2 of the above 3 services would be a great start but the development wheels @ BHX do seem to turn very slowly.
I won't be holding my breath!!!

[jabird]

Eg RYR 175

Ah, 175 new 738s. Phew! For one minute, I thought MOL had gone of his rocker too and ordered some E175s!

<end thread drift>

Agreed with all the posts above - BHX is now the joker in the pack as far as UK airports are concerned. Everyone outside their little bubble can see that more ptp European routes are what is needed most.

[chinapattern]

If you remember plenty of noise was made about the return of a ORD service,but so far nothing.Then it was the turn of QTR,and although not BHX's fault,(re 787 problems),still nothing.More recently it was Air India saying that they will re-start services to BHX,again nothing further to date.
None of these services were rumoured either as they all appeared in some form of official press releases.
Maybe we are being impatient as we all know it takes takes time to set up new air services and maybe something has already been sorted.
Any 2 of the above 3 services would be a great start but the development wheels @ BHX do seem to turn very slowly.

VERY slowly; I understand that these expansion plans are long term but the problem is I can't really see any scope for them to be viable in the short term. As one the largest regional airports in the country it's quite startling the amount of point-to-point services it lacks, especially when smaller airports seem to be able to sustain them. How can an airport claim to be the answer to Heathrows problems when it doesn't offer a direct flight to somewhere like Madrid?

Short haul wise surely bringing in EZY must be the main priority above anything else? I'd argue that Finnair and TAP are the likely contenders for any new legacy service. Maybe a bit of a wild card, but I’d love to see Icelandair give BHX a try.

With a bit of luck we’ll see TK go double daily but that aside I can’t see many opportunities medium-haul unless someone else attempts yet another one-stop link to Amritsar. It doesn’t look as though Mahan have any interest in coming back which I'm sure is a relief for anyone living along the flightpath! :)

As for long haul, I have no doubt EK will eventually go up to thrice daily, if only to throw off Qatar and/or Etihad like they did with Gulf Air. As Jet seem to have chosen MAN there is a stronger chance Air India will return when that might be is another matter. Would be good to see Thomson offer something new with the 787’s and I suppose there is the outside chance of Air Transat looking at YVR as this has always been impossible until now. PIA will probably just plod on as they have been but it would be interesting to see how they’d respond if Airblue took an interest. I’m not convinced about a Chinese carrier at this moment in time and I’d expect LHR/LGW would have all their services upgraded first before they start expanding anywhere else. And I’m sure the likes of Cathay would almost definitely opt for MAN first.

Time, as ever, will tell.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "VERY slowly; I understand that these expansion plans are long term but the problem is I can't really see any scope for them to be viable in the short term. As one the largest regional airports in the country it's quite startling the amount of point-to-point services it lacks, especially when smaller airports seem to be able to sustain them. How can an airport claim to be the answer to Heathrows problems when it doesn't offer a direct flight to somewhere like Madrid?

Short haul wise surely bringing in EZY must be the main priority above anything else? I'd argue that Finnair and TAP are the likely contenders for any new legacy service. Maybe a bit of a wild card, but I’d love to see Icelandair give BHX a try.

With a bit of luck we’ll see TK go double daily but that aside I can’t see many opportunities medium-haul unless someone else attempts yet another one-stop link to Amritsar. It doesn’t look as though Mahan have any interest in coming back which I'm sure is a relief for anyone living along the flightpath! http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/smile.gif

As for long haul, I have no doubt EK will eventually go up to thrice daily, if only to throw off Qatar and/or Etihad like they did with Gulf Air. As Jet seem to have chosen MAN there is a stronger chance Air India will return when that might be is another matter. Would be good to see Thomson offer something new with the 787’s and I suppose there is the outside chance of Air Transat looking at YVR as this has always been impossible until now. PIA will probably just plod on as they have been but it would be interesting to see how they’d respond if Airblue took an interest. I’m not convinced about a Chinese carrier at this moment in time and I’d expect LHR/LGW would have all their services upgraded first before they start expanding anywhere else. And I’m sure the likes of Cathay would almost definitely opt for MAN first.

Time, as ever, will tell.

Excellent analysis, chinapattern!

Would add that AI is NOT coming back to BHX (have said this several times so apologies for the repitition), and like CX, any Asia carrier adding a UK destination would indeed look at MAN first.

Am quite surprised that there are no flights between BHX and MAD/WAW! These are the sort of routes that should be built up at BHX in the short term, that would give any potential future long haul operators some sort of connectivity.

However, Mr Kehoe and others continually fail to explain how they intend to entice carriers and premium business away from LHR. For BHX to be bigger than LHR, LHR needs to become smaller, it's not just about adding capacity at BHX, while LHR remains at 70,000,000 pax/year.

Failure to do this implies that they are not really serious. It's Boris island all over again.

[jabird]

However, Mr Kehoe and others continually fail to explain how they intend to entice carriers and premium business away from LHR. For BHX to be bigger than LHR, LHR needs to become smaller, it's not just about adding capacity at BHX, while LHR remains at 70,000,000 pax/year.

But that's not going to happen without an act permitting nationalisation of a foreign-owned asset, and then we are indeed back to Fantasy Boris Island. Has Silver started working inthe BHX dreaming department?

Even if LHR's 3rd gets kicked into the long grass again, they could still add capacity by using steadily larger frames - not an ideal option, but far more preferable to a split hub model, with the two not even being directly connected to each other.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "But that's not going to happen without an act permitting nationalisation of a foreign-owned asset, and then we are indeed back to Fantasy Boris Island. Has Silver started working inthe BHX dreaming department?"

Am missing Silver a lot now....Silver, where are you? Come back, all is forgiven!

Quote: "Even if LHR's 3rd gets kicked into the long grass again, they could still add capacity by using steadily larger frames - not an ideal option, but far more preferable to a split hub model, with the two not even being directly connected to each other."

....and add a few more movements with mixed mode, although the delays and congestion would be much worse. It may be the only way to have flightpath residents wanting a third rwy.

Steadily larger frames has a disadvantage: it squeezes out thinner routes and thus some of the connectivity that a hub requires.

[noengines]

Why are people getting so excited about the latest noises to come out of BHX? They are just part of a political game, yet some people talk as though they were a detailed plan of action complete with planning application to replace the landfill site with a runway! The real and immediate purpose is to drum up interest and excitement in the runway extension amongst the public and the airlines.

[crewmeal]

I see from airlineroute that QR are strengthening their route structure in Scandanavia - OSL CPH & ARN.

QATAR Airways to Start Boeing 787 Service to Scandinavia from Aug/Sep 2013 | Airline Route ? Worldwide Airline Route Updates (http://airlineroute.net/2013/06/11/qr-787-aug13/)

I don't quite see BHX on the horizon:ugh:

[nigel osborne]

Crewmeal;

Re Qatar, you are naughty lol

Qatar ALREADY operate A330s into Copenhagen,Oslo and Stockholm ,they are just changing types to a 787, they were always more likely toget 787s before launching a new route, such as BHX .:= !!

In fact their is a capacity drop from 305 seats on the A330s to 254 seats on the 787 on these routes.

Where I do agree is that there is nothing but silence now about a BHX route. However neither BHX or Qatar have ever specified a start date and with only 7 out of 60 787s delivered I think,it could depend on where we might be on the pecking order 2013.14.15 ?.

You also need to know BHX is not alone in the Qatar naming game..Helsinki was announced at a joint Qatar /Helsinki press conference nearly 2 years ago and they are still waiting for a start date also !

Nigel

[LAX_LHR]

Well if what I heard was true, Qatar Airways are yet to approach BHX to begin even the preliminary talks in view of setting up a service......

[OltonPete]

crewmeal

As Nigel has stated in seats number terms these are downgrades. I think most of these routes either started as 319/320's or low frequency but increased quite quickly although EK have started CPH since with ARN next and although I am sure wonderful for the pax not a great vote of confidence.

I wonder if this frees up 3 x A330's and even a forth from the 2nd daily Munich 787, which starts later in the year or are the aircraft going off lease?

If they are freed up then it is another set-back and it will be interesting to see where they go. PHL-DOH is the only high profile new route I can think of coming on line and that is next year and I guess maybe the 330's are going or for additional frequencies on established routes.

Also of course DOH-NCE stopped 11 days ago and Stuttgart earlier this year so I doubt lack of aircraft will be the reason with European routes shrinking and even Seychelles is getting the chop come September although it is only an A320.

Pete

[chinapattern]

Qatar
Can’t help but feel that the 787 delay has been quite convenient for Qatar when it comes to all these so called route announcements; as well as BHX and HEL they also said they were planning ATH-JFK. Given the state of the Greek economy BHX must be well down the pecking order if that's ahead of us! Wasn't one of the Scandinavian flights operated by the A319LR? What's stopping them using that to BHX to get the ball rolling?

Air India
Not that any of us believed it would be a reality but that potential August start date can be ignored; the latest 787 arrivals are being deployed to HGK, ICN and KIX so we won’t be seeing them here for the foreseeable.

Can’t help but feel we’re going round in circles again regarding new routes; wouldn’t it be nice it just once one of these rumours actually became a reality?

[GayFriendly]

Thank goodness for QR, AI and EZY to give us something to gossip about regarding new routes from BHX as sadly there isn't actually anything factual to talk about!

The last legacy carrier to launch BHX flights was TK 5 years ago

The only new airline at BHX in last couple of years is BMI Regional - unless you count EZY going year round on BFS.

EK still only using 2 class aircraft on a now mature route that really should be able to attract enough F class pax (GLA managed it)

As far as we know, no new long haul carrier or destination on back of runway extension, meanwhile airlines clamour at all costs to get LHR slots

This pitiful lack of development a mega hub does not make

Maybe a bit of a wild card, but I’d love to see Icelandair give BHX a try

Hadn't thought of that but you could be onto something there. an up and coming short break destination and excellent connections to the U.S (KEF a far nicer airport to transit through than EWR). Only thing is they use 757's big birds to fill profitably on a frequency that would attract short breakers AND those making State side connections. Iceland Express loaded BHX-KEF flights in 2010, they never started, was that fallout from the ash cloud?

[chinapattern]

Iceland Express loaded BHX-KEF flights in 2010, they never started, was that fallout from the ash cloud?

I believe so. Pity that their 737 MAX's aren't coming along sooner as they'd be ideal for a BHX-KEF run.

[LGS6753]

The population of Iceland is well under 350,000.

Reykjavik is a small capital city that doesn't have lots of accommodation.

Yes, it's an attractive short break destination, but I doubt if there would be enough demand from BHX for a profitable service.

[Bagso]

Good comments GF

A lot of Icelanders come to London to see the sights, so it sells itself.

They come to Manchester for premier league football and the vibe in the City.

There are also masses who come over at w/e for the retail opportunities at the Trafford Centre which with recent expansion is very savvy at marketing itself in Europe as one of the top 5 largest shopping Malls in therein.

Glasgow has long historical links with Iceland, there was an Icelandair service there 30 years ago.

KEF is also a nice little hub for US connections if timings are not to prohibitive.

RE EK and GLA I think EK are simply hovering up disaffected BA pax who used to fly on the Shuttle and punting them via Dubai.

The former BA Midland passengers still I guess use the car/train and so if you live North you go to MAN and use EK, QR etc and if you live south you go to LHR and do likewise.

The framework that suggests BHX is at the centre of a massive catchment area is actually very true BUT that dynamic is actually also working against the City.

In the same way that many long haul services have polarised towards the major hubs, they have done likewise at LHR and MAN albeit on a smaller scale. If you started tomorrow with a clean slate things I am sure would be very different but really not sure how BHX can break through the established stranglehold which is getting tighter.

[crewmeal]

Nigel and OP

I already knew that they flew to destinations. What I meant by strengthened was the fact that they are targeting pax with the 787 instead of the 330.

New hub

I saw a diagram on ITV news last Friday showing where the new runway might go. It seems it will be alongside the M42. My question is how will the 2 runways connect each other for taxiing purposes? Tunnel the M42 perhaps? Is this project not going to be a white elephant if management can't attract new carriers now?

[jabird]

Found this from an image search:

http://news.images.itv.com/image/file/216732/article_d1347ae077992dfc_1370855231_9j-4aaqsk.jpeg

So there's a huge amount of questions I'd ask even from that sketch map alone:

What the hell is resorts world?
Has the current runway shifted north, or the station south?
How much capacity do you lose with slightly off parallel runways? Surely the whole point is that two parallel lines NEVER cross each other?
And as crewmeal says - that is one hell of a taxiway!