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-   -   Flybe-9 (https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/599822-flybe-9-a.html)

Richard Taylor 5th Apr 2019 17:22

Within 18 months there may be no Flybe.

Reversethrustset 5th Apr 2019 17:32

Well yeah, that's your opinion, that's fine.

ZULUBOY 5th Apr 2019 21:17


Originally Posted by OltonPete (Post 10439929)
I can only see BHX and MAN housing the remaining 7 E175's of which 3 will be used on the CDG if the arrangement with Air France continues and as they are more inter-linked *(Virgin-Delta-Skyteam) there is a chance it will.

The others will be used on BHX & MAN MXP if these routes remain and perhaps BHX-STR TXL and again if these routes remain although these are often Dash 8's as well these days.

This brings me on to six-sixty's excellent post and the only minor point I have to add is that BHX-BHD is only a 175 on a Saturday and it is to get the aircraft there to fly BHD-SZG or INN (can't remember which one), the more perplexing use of the 175's is the regular MAN-NQY, MAN-SOU and MAN-BHD. The jets at BHX in the main do operate routes with decent business take-up or are a little longer than the norm or the extra seats are filled such as MXP, STR, TXL, LYS, AMS etc. If you see one in the week on domestic it is usually covering for the Dash which gain Six Sixty is spot on.

Most at BHX seem to be thinking that MXP, STR, TXL, HAM, HAJ, LYS, DUS might not be around in 12 months and also expecting changes on CDG and AMS.

Pete

Blimey Pete, there isn't much left if they all go. For personal reasons I wouldn't want TXL to go as we use it for visiting relatives there

DC3 Dave 5th Apr 2019 21:28

It's getting interesting. At what point would Virgn / Stobart have been better served letting Flybe go under and cherry picking the best bits from the administrator, rather than take the business on - debts and all - and face all the costs associated with sorting out a sorry state of affairs?

Alteagod 5th Apr 2019 21:38

When are they expecting to transition to Virgin

AirportPlanner1 5th Apr 2019 21:47


Originally Posted by DC3 Dave (Post 10440207)
It's getting interesting. At what point would Virgn / Stobart have been better served letting Flybe go under and cherry picking the best bits from the administrator, rather than take the business on - debts and all - and face all the costs associated with sorting out a sorry state of affairs?

When the costs involved start far outweighing the financial and operational value of the assets, in particular slots at Heathrow.

SpeedyProp 5th Apr 2019 22:00

But if Flybe went under, then no UK AOC, which is in large what they bought. Add in Brexit, then it would really get difficult, if not inpossible for a UK operation to be set up from scratch on an Irish (EU) AOC (cherry picking or not).

As soon as the EU competition part of the sale process is done, I would think things will move quickly, both for rebranding and new management – I believe the plan is for one board covering VS as well as Connect Air (whatever brand name that ends up under).

corsaman 5th Apr 2019 22:31


Originally Posted by southside bobby (Post 10438829)
Actually the HS748 was the "Budgie".

ref post #1971, precisely.

crewmeal 6th Apr 2019 05:58


Most at BHX seem to be thinking that MXP, STR, TXL, HAM, HAJ, LYS, DUS might not be around in 12 months and also expecting changes on CDG and AMS.
Do any of these routes make money? If not then I guess they won't be around for much longer.

southside bobby 6th Apr 2019 06:59

Re "Budgies".
Ooops...Apologies,did not spot that post re the Autair HS748`s.

ZULUBOY 6th Apr 2019 07:11


Originally Posted by crewmeal (Post 10440439)
Do any of these routes make money? If not then I guess they won't be around for much longer.

May be naive of me but lots of these routes are longstanding. If they weren't making money I would have assumed they'd have been gone a long time ago

ssflyer 6th Apr 2019 08:06


Originally Posted by ZULUBOY (Post 10440464)
May be naive of me but lots of these routes are longstanding. If they weren't making money I would have assumed they'd have been gone a long time ago

BHX/LYS runs only on weekdays, geared to mainly business traffic, is an AF codeshare,and has an average load of 77% so it is probably viable

SS

Doc Q 6th Apr 2019 08:18

Criminal how such incompetence could have been allowed to bring what is likely to be the eventual demise of a great airline, I can’t see how they now dig themselves out this hole , Th amount of negative propaganda now out there on social media is going to destroy the brand .

And it was all avoidable .

PDXCWL45 6th Apr 2019 08:25


Originally Posted by ZULUBOY (Post 10440464)
May be naive of me but lots of these routes are longstanding. If they weren't making money I would have assumed they'd have been gone a long time ago

I've also seen complaints that prices are quite expensive as well but even if they do make money they might not fit into Flybe future strategy assuming they have they have one!

Brigantee 6th Apr 2019 08:39

The big bad wolf has stated yesterdy he is going to base extra aircraft at the airports Flybe are deserting and ones where the E Jets are being withdrawn from as he thinks correctly that pasengers are not going to happy having to fly on archaic slow old prop jobs when in the past they have flown on the jets


speedrestriction 6th Apr 2019 08:47


Originally Posted by brian_dromey (Post 10439492)
I think it's being a bit revisionist to say that flyBe 'over ordered'.

Actually I would agree with the sentiment. The 14 E195s were basically a replacement fleet for the old 146s and as a like for like replacement they made a lot of sense with significantly lower fuel burn. Back then a lot of the Embraer work was in and out of LGW and continental European routes out of SOU and EXT. The significant over ordering was for the 175 model which was never a good fit. For years the Q400s had been flying around with a load factor of 60-70 percent on a good day. The fare structure and revenue management was not geared towards filling the aircraft on the day of operation as many of the proper locos do. As pilots we were scratching our heads when we were then told the company was getting 40 odd 175s plus a daft number of options. I am still waiting for anyone to explain up-gauging a fleet when the existing fleet was running somewhere between 30 and 70 percent empty on a normal day. Not alone was there additional unneeded capacity but it came at a 60% higher fuel burn than the dash. Totally daft fleet decision.

Copenhagen 6th Apr 2019 09:02

Embraer orders resulted in the demise of two UK airlines - Flybe and the original BMIR.

virginblue 6th Apr 2019 09:14


Originally Posted by OltonPete (Post 10439929)
Most at BHX seem to be thinking that MXP, STR, TXL, HAM, HAJ, LYS, DUS might not be around in 12 months and also expecting changes on CDG and AMS.

Isn't DUS served from the DUS base? Which, unless I missed something, is still around and has somewhat surprisingly survived the cull.

To be honest, I think DUS is in slightly another league than the other destinations mentioned as it has been around for ages and is served up to 4 times daily. Passenger numbers on BHX-DUS in total are, if I remember correctly, higher to or almost as high as to Frankfurt and Munich as hub airports. The only reason to pull it that I can see would be that yields have deteriorated massively as a result of Eurowings now deploying large Airbus jets on the route (for the lack of smaller 100 seaters)

Alwayslistening 6th Apr 2019 09:28


Originally Posted by jethro15 (Post 10439857)
E195 - Fleet for disposal
E175 - 04 a/c for disposal
E175 - 04 outstanding orders canx

jethro's

This is my understanding as well. The 4 E175s for disposal...

When Virgin took over they stated to the effect that they would be focussing on long haul feed. To that end CWL and DSA do not fit the mould. However that does not mean the two bases are not viable, the load factors are very good and along side the subsidies I find it hard to believe the bases are not profitable.

So far in the new connect airways what have Stobart added or indeed gained from this arangement?

I wonder if we’ll see Stobart take the surplus E175s and deploy as they see fit.. now I wonder where they could go....

One thing is for certain, this is a massive farce/stitch up and I feel sorry for all staff on the ground who haven’t had the luxury of feathering their own nest like certain management.

virginblue 6th Apr 2019 09:43


When Virgin took over they stated to the effect that they would be focussing on long haul feed.
I am not really buying that. Flybe has 70+ or so aircraft. Virgin has its long-haul base at LHR and LGW. It is virtually impossible to shift any decent number of airframes to routes that would feed those hubs simply because there are no slots available at any of those airports that would allow a decent hub-and-spoke operation with suitably timed slots. So unless Virgin massively beefs up its small Manchester longhaul operation and adds more Flybe routes to MAN, how can they repurpose Flybe to a longhaul feeder?


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