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Flybe-V2

Old 22nd Nov 2022, 08:33
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OAG publish on-time and cancellations data every month which is about as a fair a source as you'll get rather than these "this was cancelled today, this was cancelled yesterday" debate.

October data shows 55% on-time and a whopping 29% cancellation rate for Flybe, which has even dislodged Wizz Air from the bottom slot in the league table for cancellations (they were at 11%). Of the other regionals, Aurigny was at 18% cancellations - which I guess will be because Alderney was off air for several days? - Eastern at 5%, Loganair at 4% and Blue Islands at 1%.



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Old 22nd Nov 2022, 10:38
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Originally Posted by willy wombat View Post
And that just sums up the acceptance of mediocrity. It is perfectly possible to run for weeks without any cancellations if you schedule appropriately, have adequate crew numbers, good engineering back up, etc. the bete noir tends to be the weather. An airline that shrugs its collective shoulders and just assumes it will have frequent cancellations will indeed have frequent cancellations.
I think more an acceptance of reality than mediocrity. Flights have been cancelled by pretty much every airline you could care to name over recent months (including BA for me personally, which meant late-notice cancellation of a planned weekend away)

However, those stats show that Flybe are not doing well, and as I look at FR24 right now I can see one a/c positioning from BHD to EXT on a maintenance c/s (could be planned, who knows) and another from LHR to BHD (having previously been on the ground in AMS for 5 days, which one would have to assume wasn't).

It's not great and even people who want to support the airline will lose faith in they can't rely on it.

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Old 22nd Nov 2022, 11:28
  #783 (permalink)  
 
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Who is going to book with a carrier that currently cancels nearly 1 in 3 flights. Regardless of the reason thats a big problem. And just under half of flights are at least 15 mins late. The compensation alone must be costing a fortune especially on cancelled services where passengers can get a refund and Ä250 compensation.
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Old 22nd Nov 2022, 11:44
  #784 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BA318 View Post
Who is going to book with a carrier that currently cancels nearly 1 in 3 flights. Regardless of the reason thats a big problem. And just under half of flights are at least 15 mins late. The compensation alone must be costing a fortune especially on cancelled services where passengers can get a refund and €250 compensation.
Indeed, the refund and compensation issue alone could drain the airline of significant funds. Apart from cancelling 1:3 flights, the timetable at BHD just isn't competitive with Emerald, so the only thing they have going for the are low fares. I have just had a quick look at BHD-LBA, both airline have fares available for Thursday morning for <£40. Emerald have 3 flights that day, flyBe one. Emerald have higher fares for the rest of the day and when they dont compete with flyBe. It doest take a genius to work out what's going on here....the only question is how deep flyBe's pockets are?
Have a look at EI fares for November and December on LBA-BHD on Sundays. Its over £300 each way on both flights. flyBe don't even fly LBA-BHD on Sundays. What Emerald looses on the sectors where they compete with flyBe they gain in spades on the sectors they don't compete on. flyBe don't have that ability. Or the commercial acumen to offer flights between NI and GB on a Sunday afternoon, a fairly peak time, in my experience.
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Old 22nd Nov 2022, 11:45
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A 29% cancellation rate (assuming this is true) means you have just a 50% chance of flying a round trip without significant problem.
Would really put me off if I can't afford to muck around with major delays

For those wondering 29% cancellation means 71% completion. 0.71 x 0.71 = 50.4%
I am assuming the 2 legs are independent and identically distributed
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Old 22nd Nov 2022, 11:53
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post
A 29% cancellation rate (assuming this is true) means you have just a 50% chance of flying a round trip without significant problem.
Would really put me off if I can't afford to muck around with major delays

For those wondering 29% cancellation means 71% completion. 0.71 x 0.71 = 50.4%
I am assuming the 2 legs are independent and identically distributed
OAG is a fairly trustworthy organisation. Given the past few weeks the Nov figures must be even worse.
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Old 22nd Nov 2022, 17:59
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Originally Posted by BA318 View Post
Who is going to book with a carrier that currently cancels nearly 1 in 3 flights. Regardless of the reason thats a big problem. And just under half of flights are at least 15 mins late. The compensation alone must be costing a fortune especially on cancelled services where passengers can get a refund and Ä250 compensation.
I am chancing LHR-NCL on Tuesday next week. In all honesty, I know thereís a chance itíll be cancelled, but theyíre cheaper than the train and the late BA flight (now sold out) and the earlier one was £465 one way versus £70. And I know if they cancel I can pick up a train with the compensation so worth the risk.

They do have a market on some routes IMO although completely agree re Belfast and LHR-AMS too.
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Old 22nd Nov 2022, 20:09
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Flew BHX-AMS the other day, on schedule, good crew and the dash was more refined than I was expecting - good price too. Was very pleasantly surprised.
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Old 22nd Nov 2022, 20:14
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Newquay to Heathrow was cancelled tonight, and it seems that nobody told the passengers sitting at the gate in Heathrow, who found out about it on the Flybe website.

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Old 22nd Nov 2022, 20:21
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So looking forward to doing a running commentary on NCL pax numbers.
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Old 22nd Nov 2022, 21:30
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Originally Posted by Copenhagen View Post
Newquay to Heathrow was cancelled tonight, and it seems that nobody told the passengers sitting at the gate in Heathrow, who found out about it on the Flybe website.
To be fair, this happens a lot these days when carriers use handling agents who arenít always present at every gate. Has happened to me recently with a certain flag carrier, as well as Flybe Mk1 on LGW-NQY. A wet and wild night in NQY so cancellation is not surprising.
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 07:38
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
" Sheís has now booked with another airline for the same day."

And no doubt wil never book with them again - and tell all her friends and family
My wife managed to get through yesterday after 10 mins waiting. Enquiring about the refund for the cancelled flight as nothing on the website. Agent said no you have to request a refund even though Flybe made the cancellation. My wife said she couldnít find any information/instruction of the kind. Agent was disinterested and never eluded why itís taken 4 calls to get through the previous 3 attempts being around an hour on hold before giving up.

Luckily my wifeís niece worked until recently for FB and has said what itís like behind the scenes. Lessons learned I suppose when you try to support the little guy (as such).


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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 08:22
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Originally Posted by NIREP reader View Post
My wife managed to get through yesterday after 10 mins waiting. Enquiring about the refund for the cancelled flight as nothing on the website. Agent said no you have to request a refund even though Flybe made the cancellation. My wife said she couldnít find any information/instruction of the kind. Agent was disinterested and never eluded why itís taken 4 calls to get through the previous 3 attempts being around an hour on hold before giving up.

Luckily my wifeís niece worked until recently for FB and has said what itís like behind the scenes. Lessons learned I suppose when you try to support the little guy (as such).

Not sure its any better withe big guys TBH when it comes to refunds
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 08:36
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Unless there are changes, it looks (based on planned early morning departures) like they will need 10 airframes by the end of Feb and assuming 8 sector days, there will only be short gaps in the flypro where an aircraft will be on the ground and spare. The real test of commitment from the money man will be whether he is prepared to fund a fully crewed spare. Muddling through and trying to juggle the entire program when an aircraft is grounded is not sustainable. If the airline is to succeed in line with their published plans, there will need to be signs of crew being recruited and trained before the end of the year and a steady aircraft arrival rate of at least one per month.
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 08:39
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Originally Posted by biddedout View Post
Unless there are changes, it looks (based on planned early morning departures) like they will need 10 airframes by the end of Feb and assuming 8 sector days, there will only be short gaps in the flypro where an aircraft will be on the ground and spare. The real test of commitment from the money man will be whether he is prepared to fund a fully crewed spare. Muddling through and trying to juggle the entire program when an aircraft is grounded is not sustainable. If the airline is to succeed in line with their published plans, there will need to be signs of crew being recruited and trained before the end of the year and a steady aircraft arrival rate of at least one per month.
They are advertising for crew now. The missing planes on the other handÖ
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 10:09
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Originally Posted by ajamieson View Post
To be fair, this happens a lot these days when carriers use handling agents who aren’t always present at every gate. Has happened to me recently with a certain flag carrier, as well as Flybe Mk1 on LGW-NQY. A wet and wild night in NQY so cancellation is not surprising.
Well, the a/c that was due to operate NQY-LHR-NQY last night is still on the ground in NQY, and another a/c has been positioned down from BHD this morning to operate the morning LHR rotation with approx 2hr delay, so one suspects another u/s airframe There is also one in EXT (arrived there yesterday) which was apparently for planned maint.

These issues with delayed airframe deliveries and keeping the ones they have serviceable seem to hurting them and their much-needed reputation badly.

BHX to EDI and GLA due to restart on Thursday (although other routes have had frequency reduced or have been temporarily suspended to make way)
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 10:22
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According to FR24, x 7 cancellations today from BHD (50%), truly spectacular!
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 10:29
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Originally Posted by SKOJB View Post
According to FR24, x 7 cancellations today from BHD (50%), truly spectacular!
SKOJB - be fair to flyBE at BHD. It lists 15 flights, so 7 cancellations is just a 46.66% cancellation rate, not a 50% cancellation rate. Of course there is always the possibility that another aircraft will go tech
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 10:52
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post
SKOJB - be fair to flyBE at BHD. It lists 15 flights, so 7 cancellations is just a 46.66% cancellation rate, not a 50% cancellation rate. Of course there is always the possibility that another aircraft will go tech
wasnít including the NQY repositioning flight to work the LHR schedule
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Old 23rd Nov 2022, 11:00
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Originally Posted by SKOJB View Post
According to FR24, x 7 cancellations today from BHD (50%), truly spectacular!
Itís 100% cancellations at NCL today with both Belfast and London cancelled.
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