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Old 8th Jul 2023, 08:13
  #1321 (permalink)  
 
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I heard TUI used a SmartLynx aircraft to transport 22 pax from DUB to MAN. A 3 sector day for the crew with empty legs both sides out of/into LGW (that'll get the green lobby going!)
Already delayed by 3 days, they suffered another 3 hour delay at the hands of SmartLynx using ****ty aircraft.
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Old 8th Jul 2023, 08:40
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Originally Posted by MonarchOrBust
I heard TUI used a SmartLynx aircraft to transport 22 pax from DUB to MAN. A 3 sector day for the crew with empty legs both sides from/out of LGW (that'll get the green lobby going!)
Already delayed by 3 days, they suffered another 3 hour delay at the hands of SmartLynx using sh***y aircraft.
Sad to read the increasing problems at TUI Airways.

The Main issues seem to be crewing, more and more technical issues, operational mess ups, plus many of the airport infrastructures still haven't caught up with manning levels, and getting a tight grip back on airport/airline handling since Covid.
Not directly TUI's fault, but it is TUI who pays the bills for that, so TUI should be much more proactive working with all of the airport ground agencies and kicking butts.
Plus, add into the mix, now more summer ATC disruptions in France etc.

The lack of aircraft for flying the customers of TUI's Package Holidays has a causation effect of so much costly ACMI leasing, 3rd party airlines, and frequent ad-hoc sub charter work;
The EU 261 delay costs also have to be factored in.

This clearly shows that by offering, then selling way too many package holidays that you do not have planes for, could possibly end up financially crippling for the Company.
Boeing's 737M delays are ongoing with TUI's order for the larger 230 seat Dash -10 version that is not even on the 'Line' yet, let alone Certified.
The 2 elderly 767-300's are mooted to go soon after this summer.
Thus, if the Sunwing deal also ends this summer, then Summer 2024 will see a huge shortage of uplift, much worse than this year;

More and more bad Press is not a nice read, and so when one thinks of the legacy of the quality of both Britannia Airways, and Air 2000 the current situation is rather sad.

On the whole TUI sells very good Package Holidays, but with Jet2 Holidays no longer snapping at their heels, but are now the UK's No.1, then WHO is at the TUI helm?
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Old 8th Jul 2023, 13:06
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The concern for TUI, sooner rather than later, is going to be cash IMO. I read somewhere else (unsure if it’s true, but it’s definitely plausible) that the delays are costing TUI £750,000 per day with hotels and compensation for delays.

Obviously, some days won’t be as excessive as that but some could be worse.
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Old 8th Jul 2023, 13:43
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TUI @ BHX

Originally Posted by chinapattern
Not sure what’s happening at BHX - the 789 that operated to Antalya this morning returned to Gatwick meaning a 789 has been subbed in from Manchester to operate this evenings Dalaman - that’s been heavily delayed and watching FR24 now looks to be doing a tour of Manchesters apron!
Totally mess and highlights the crewing issues but it seems to be resolving itself finally in respect of the Antalya and Dalaman

The 789 has left Gatwick for Antalya and hopefully will return to BHX around 26-28 hours late

The Dalaman I assume another victim of crew hours - The 789 landed Manchester 17:11 four hours late from Palma as mentioned above but got a seven hour turnaround leaving 23:57 for BHX by which time they knocked BHX-Dalaman on the head and it operated to Cancun instead this morning.

Ironically half the Dalaman flight left on a 737 at 12:24 today on a spare aircraft that had been parked for over a day so obviously again no crew available to operate this earlier, plus there were two 737's in early last night for night-stop but of course the flying time to Dalaman would have probably compromised todays schedule. The rest of the Dalaman pax are due out 22:20 around 26-27 hours late - how did they decide who goes first - did they draw lots?

Even more frustrating, as they cancelled the Thursday Melbourne for a few weeks a 789 sat at BHX doing nothing for 24 hours. I suppose s*d* law, have a spare when it is not required and no spare when one is required.

This thread keeps mentioning lack of aircraft but not really the case for BHX, quite the opposite with at least one aircraft parked up most days. I arrived Monday early evening and two were parked up on the 70's although one did operate a night flight a few hours later. Another 737 was on the ground 42 hours mid week with the schedule operating normally, definitely points to crew hours more that aircraft shortages.

Pete

Last edited by OltonPete; 8th Jul 2023 at 13:45. Reason: added text
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Old 8th Jul 2023, 15:11
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I guess all the extra expense for delays, overtime payments and ACMI will come from revenue which will be priced into the holiday packages.
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Old 8th Jul 2023, 17:45
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While it does look like a mess and the quality of Thomson & Britannia in particular has long gone (which I still find very sad 😔 ) there haven’t been any profit warnings from TUI and it’s share price is at least stable (up yesterday) so perhaps there’s nothing to see here??

while Smartlynx were rubbish when they operated for Thomas Cook, the downfall of TC was too much debt rather than dodgy 3rd party flying…..

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Old 8th Jul 2023, 19:12
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Originally Posted by hec7or
I guess all the extra expense for delays, overtime payments and ACMI will come from revenue which will be priced into the holiday packages.
£6-7M per week? It could be worse at times as well.

I probably sound pessimistic but I genuinely want TUI to turn this around. Fingers crossed there will be some lessons learnt sooner rather than later.
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Old 8th Jul 2023, 19:59
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From May,

TUI GROUP – GUIDANCE

We re-confirm our expectations to increase underlying EBIT significantly for financial year 2023 supported by an encouraging booking momentum.

My thoughts:

If anything significant had happened since they would need to announce to the market.

if a recession hits, holidays will
be cut first and TUI won’t have too many aircraft to redeploy as they”ll just cut the third party flying so in 2024 won’t need 10+ aircraft.

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Old 8th Jul 2023, 20:00
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£6-7M per week? It could be worse at times as well.

I probably sound pessimistic but I genuinely want TUI to turn this around. Fingers crossed there will be some lessons learnt sooner rather than later.
That’s sounds about right. I believe compensation payments cost them about £50m last year. I know that sounds a lot but I think they accept it’s just one of their operational costs. I don’t have figures for easyJet but Jet2 in their recent results announcement also mentioned that they had paid £50m in comp delays for the past year.

On the shocking third party flying, I quite agree and hope TUI’s management either find better operators for their 3PF or better still take more in house next summer.
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Old 9th Jul 2023, 08:57
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Actually, if there is a downturn due to the cost of living crisis, then TUI are well placed to weather it since they haven't gone mad with aircraft acquisitions and can jettison the 3rd party ACMI and they haven't employed large numbers of ground staff who spend parts of the day idle once all the aircraft have departed.
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Old 9th Jul 2023, 10:12
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Originally Posted by hec7or
Actually, if there is a downturn due to the cost of living crisis, then TUI are well placed to weather it since they haven't gone mad with aircraft acquisitions and can jettison the 3rd party ACMI and they haven't employed large numbers of ground staff who spend parts of the day idle once all the aircraft have departed.

I refer to post 1328 above.

everyone’s gone silent when real facts and figures are quoted.

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Old 9th Jul 2023, 10:14
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hec7or,

Perhaps you are on to something there, especially if its an accountant(s) that have the upper hand in Hannover.

Out of interest are TUI elsewhere in Europe leasing ACMI capacity to the same extent as TUI UK are? I know Transavia are doing a bit, and noticed yesterday that Correndon are using SkyUp.
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Old 9th Jul 2023, 12:28
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G-TUIP

Has any other airline taken this aircraft? Wondering if TUI might do a U-turn and take it. With the 767’s leaving they are going to be short of high capacity aircraft.
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Old 9th Jul 2023, 17:57
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Originally Posted by GBYAJ
I refer to post 1328 above.

everyone’s gone silent when real facts and figures are quoted.
I don't see any real facts and figures? It's just conjecture

On the flip side what about if the recession/cost of living crisis has no real effect on demand, particularly for cost effective all inclusive packages? Look at this year prices up 20% and sales are up for both the big 2. Year on year s24 sales are already higher.

One of the big 2 will be in a prime position to capitalise and the other will be floundering playing catch up wondering where their market share has gone.
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Old 9th Jul 2023, 18:26
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Has there been a recession in the last 40 years which hasn't resulted in a fall in demand for the industry?
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Old 9th Jul 2023, 18:31
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Originally Posted by Yeehaw22
I don't see any real facts and figures? It's just conjecture

On the flip side what about if the recession/cost of living crisis has no real effect on demand, particularly for cost effective all inclusive packages? Look at this year prices up 20% and sales are up for both the big 2. Year on year s24 sales are already higher.

One of the big 2 will be in a prime position to capitalise and the other will be floundering playing catch up wondering where their market share has gone.
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conjecture ;

an opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information.


the information behind the statements is publicly available as you would expect for a listed company with a market cap of £2.88bn.


and interestingly Jet2’s maker cap on Friday was £2.5bn.

For completeness my last 3 package holidays have been Jet2 and I think they are much better than TUI in all respects but will be flying with TUI this summer. Just hoping to get a nice looking 737 rather than the grim
looking G-TUK* series! But this isn’t the same as the earlier posts suggesting that TUI are on the brink due to lots of positioning flights and third party flying. Thomson always used to do it they just appeared to have a better choice of partners in those days than TUI does now.


Last edited by GBYAJ; 9th Jul 2023 at 18:51.
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Old 9th Jul 2023, 21:13
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Originally Posted by GBYAJ
conjecture ;

an opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information.


the information behind the statements is publicly available as you would expect for a listed company with a market cap of £2.88bn.


and interestingly Jet2’s maker cap on Friday was £2.5bn.

For completeness my last 3 package holidays have been Jet2 and I think they are much better than TUI in all respects but will be flying with TUI this summer. Just hoping to get a nice looking 737 rather than the grim
looking G-TUK* series! But this isn’t the same as the earlier posts suggesting that TUI are on the brink due to lots of positioning flights and third party flying. Thomson always used to do it they just appeared to have a better choice of partners in those days than TUI does now.
What G-TUK* series?
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Old 9th Jul 2023, 22:21
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Flew on two G-TUK* 737 aircraft recently and both were more than acceptable, with on-time flights both ways, minimal check-in queues and a good, friendly standard of service. I don't know what this looks like on a day where it goes wrong, but on the basis of recent personal experience, I'd have no qualms in booking them again.
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Old 9th Jul 2023, 22:51
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Originally Posted by VickersVicount
What G-TUK* series?
There's 3x G-TUK* reg 737s in the UK fleet. All are ex fellow group airlines. The interiors are identical to the rest of the TUI 737 fleet. Yes fair enough, they're not externally all in a uniform TUI wave livery, but operationally it's more cost effective to have the repaints completed when its time to do so from an engineering requirement. Unfortunately with the high utilisation of these aircraft, theres been no space otherwise to plan anything but that for them.
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Old 10th Jul 2023, 09:16
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Originally Posted by Cazza_fly
There's 3x G-TUK* reg 737s in the UK fleet. All are ex fellow group airlines. The interiors are identical to the rest of the TUI 737 fleet. Yes fair enough, they're not externally all in a uniform TUI wave livery, but operationally it's more cost effective to have the repaints completed when its time to do so from an engineering requirement. Unfortunately with the high utilisation of these aircraft, theres been no space otherwise to plan anything but that for them.
G-TUKF is ex Ryanair/Pegasus. It doesn’t have a ‘standard’ Tui interior.

I believe the aircraft was sourced for fleet expansion after TCX’s failure prior to the Summer 2020 season, the pandemic put a stop to that. There were other examples such as ex FlyDubai aircraft. Though I’m not sure if those were or are part of the current fleet?
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