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Old 17th Jan 2024, 08:27
  #701 (permalink)  
 
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several articles in the Times today about the problems around the sale of interests in LHR - apparently a lot of the shareholders really think Ferrovial have a great deal for their sale and are enforcing the "tag-along" clause to ask for the same deal....................... over 50% of the stock now on offer
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Old 20th Jan 2024, 19:18
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The Sunday Times has an article on what the new investors may have planned for Heathrow based on "sources".

I can see shared bag drop kiosks for airlines being a complete non-starter, given airlines will want their own desks for premium customers:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/h...port-2tdrqr8vb

Updating Heathrow’s technology is a key plank in the strategy, with a key idea being to scrap airline-specific check-in desks. Instead of, say, British Airways customers having to find their way to the BA bag drop area and endure the queues when the airline is particularly busy, they would be able to leave their bags at any drop-off point on the departures concourse.“This is all about moving large numbers of people through an airport as efficiently as possible,” said one source.
Sources say that terminal 3 could be combined with Terminal 2 to create a central hub. Separate spurs from Terminal 5 could also be built to increase passenger capacity.
Mixed mode operations are also mentioned. Again, this is likely to be a complete non-starter.
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Old 20th Jan 2024, 19:44
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Why is it a non-starter ? For all the pax in the Y seats, a generic bag drop-off is good enough. Perhaps there could be a big sign at the entrance to the checkin area - Turn left if you are rich and important, turn right if you are a worthless peasant. That approach seems to work very well when boarding an airplane

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Old 21st Jan 2024, 07:06
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6
Why is it a non-starter ? For all the pax in the Y seats, a generic bag drop-off is good enough. Perhaps there could be a big sign at the entrance to the checkin area - Turn left if you are rich and important, turn right if you are a worthless peasant. That approach seems to work very well when boarding an airplane
And of course T5 not only has a premium lane at bag drop but for the super super Davos visiting elite an entirely private drive and and sliding door
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Old 21st Jan 2024, 08:22
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"the super super Davos visiting elite" are nowhere near LHR - they wouldn't be seen dead on an airline

In one of the follow-ups to "crazy Rich Asians" a character HAS to get home ASAP - and he is mortified in case someone sees him slumming it in SQ First Class
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Old 24th Jan 2024, 15:28
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Aviation is never going away. The Govt should've steamrolled over everything and everyone and allowed the building of this third runway over a decade ago with T5 (even help fund it).
Heathrow should be building more satellites for T5, Knocking down T1 to expand T2, replacing T3 with a modern design and building a new terminal between the new and existing runways.

It's as much about future-proofing the place as it is expanding. A massive hub airport to dominate Europe would be good for the economy.
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Old 24th Jan 2024, 15:31
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Originally Posted by Sean North
Aviation is never going away. The Govt should've steamrolled over everything and everyone and allowed the building of this third runway over a decade ago with T5 (even help fund it).
Heathrow should be building more satellites for T5, Knocking down T1 to expand T2, replacing T3 with a modern design and building a new terminal between the new and existing runways.

It's as much about future-proofing the place as it is expanding. A massive hub airport to dominate Europe would be good for the economy.
may we ask where you live - roughly?

they should have closed LHR in the early 70's and moved to Maplin - as the French, Japanese, Norwegians,Hong Kong, Dallas, Denver etc etc did
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Old 24th Jan 2024, 15:39
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Osaka Kansei airport is sinking faster than was predicted at the time of construction. There is serious concern it may not be usable for as long as expected without some serious money being thrown at the problem.
Maplin Sands may not be a good idea for an airport
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Old 24th Jan 2024, 18:06
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6
Osaka Kansei airport is sinking faster than was predicted at the time of construction. There is serious concern it may not be usable for as long as expected without some serious money being thrown at the problem.
Maplin Sands may not be a good idea for an airport
The correct site exists today for a genuine build out of a real unrestricted airport at Stansted ,

Yes a few rather nice cottages would need to be lost yet far fewer people would be inconvenienced , and several batts and a few of those newts (always the newts ! - ever seen a colony?) would need rehoming.

All that said in jest right now.
Going forward I see no good reason why UK PLC should continue to import carbon emissions and off sets generated by 30% of the traffic in transit.

If people can fly none stop ( Air India priming itself to do so) and with the ULH 350/787s why are we encouraging continued hub connections - often maintained by the awards “bribes” systems .

The entire industry and associated business model needs to change in the next decades -Frankly it’s absurd that (eg) FCO-LHR- JFK can be significantly cheaper than just JFK-LHR.

So as I previously said over many years the R3 scheme is not at all good value to UK PLC imho.

Sean LHR is only a good place to make connections into the rest of Europe from North America . Certainly not any of the emerging markets !

Evidently IAG are aware of this today pretty weak in East Asia and Africa , through are lifting Microsoft software “ engineers” from and to India and the US -currently a valuable revenue stream .
Now if Air India under TATA and associated *A star partners lift their game along with existing ME3 competition I question if BA can maintain that into the mid term .


Last edited by Rutan16; 24th Jan 2024 at 18:39.
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Old 24th Jan 2024, 22:27
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Originally Posted by Rutan16
If people can fly none stop ( Air India priming itself to do so) and with the ULH 350/787s why are we encouraging continued hub connections - often maintained by the awards “bribes” systems .
Heathrow used to have a good video on their website (may still be there) about the synergy that hubs generate. The growth of ULH hub bypass routes, where economic, doesn't seem to be making much of a dent in the hub model.
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Old 24th Jan 2024, 22:52
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
Heathrow used to have a good video on their website (may still be there) about the synergy that hubs generate. The growth of ULH hub bypass routes, where economic, doesn't seem to be making much of a dent in the hub model.
Mainly I would say due to perceived (and that being the operative word) quality of service. People think BA/VS compared to, for example AI will give better quality service so are willing to transfer at a euro hub and have two flights instead of one ULH flight because overall the experience will be better. Whether that is an outdated view is another matter but I still think for whatever reason Western European airlines hold a certain prestige over airlines from the subcontinent. Of course the ME3 and TK have massively eaten into this but even so a direct comparison between the likes of BA/VS/KL/LH etc compared to AI and Chinese airlines and the like would still show a favourability or prestige for the European carriers, justified or not. Having said all of the above, given the astronomic rise of the ME3, TK and even SQ, I think legacy European carriers have a big battle on their hands to maintain their ‘prestige’ which I would say within their own respective countries has already been diminished somewhat because of the carriers mentioned above.
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Old 25th Jan 2024, 06:48
  #712 (permalink)  
 
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I think the issue with LHR is a bit like the London centric thing. If you live outside the Home Counties and London then LHR is in the wrong place and generally people have voted with their feet and use other hubs in Europe or indeed those in the Middle East or take direct flights to Far East.

You can see this at any UK large regional and an even easier demonstration is look at the drop off in flights by the likes of BA/VS to Australia along with many other European carriers on that route as people use the ME3 soon to be 4 with TK or indeed SQ. They are in a different league for customer experience.

The North Atlantic is really one of the few routes where LHR still holds sway and that is as much to do with geographical location of the UK as much as LHR or UK carriers.

Cheers
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Last edited by Mr Mac; 25th Jan 2024 at 09:29.
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Old 25th Jan 2024, 08:19
  #713 (permalink)  
 
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" I still think for whatever reason Western European airlines hold a certain prestige over airlines from the subcontinent."

from the subcontinent yes- but the Middle & far East - no way - ever since SQ blew the doors off and then the ME3 got their act together there has been no good reason to fly with a european airline long haul to the east. Just look at the collapse of BA's far eastern/Kangaroo routes
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Old 25th Jan 2024, 09:31
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
" I still think for whatever reason Western European airlines hold a certain prestige over airlines from the subcontinent."

from the subcontinent yes- but the Middle & far East - no way - ever since SQ blew the doors off and then the ME3 got their act together there has been no good reason to fly with a european airline long haul to the east. Just look at the collapse of BA's far eastern/Kangaroo routes
My point being as I was referring to the post I quoted, airlines like SQ the ME3 and even CX to an extent, offer the so called ULH flights where they make sense and people would be willing to use them. But offer someone an ULH on AI or TG etc I think the general feeling would be they’d rather fly a euro airline one stop via their hub. Now I’m not saying that euro airlines offer better quality than airlines from the subcontinent but I think generally that’s the perception of people which is why ULH hasn’t killed the hub model. Same applies for South American Airlines, African airlines (maybe ET aside) and North American airlines I think for the most part would rather you flew to western Europe with them and connect onto a partner airline with the frequency they offer across the pond. Their simply isn’t the quality of the ME3/SQ etc in the rest of the world to make ULH viable to replace the hub model at the moment
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Old 25th Jan 2024, 10:24
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LHR looks to becomes an airp[ort just serving London, and entering a irreversible gradual decline and go the way of so many other UK ventures and the country
The location doesnt work any more unless T3 is built , there is an alternative location not far to the west but its called Windsor Great park -moving east would mean tens of thousands of people would have to be relocated .

Only in Uk would the country's huge international airport be sold to foreign owners which cannot help gettign it treated as vital infrastructure can it.

As to damage to Uk interests -especially BA by allowing the ME3 to have a ridiculous number of flights to siphon off much of BA (and Virgins) business .Pretty much destroyed BAs market to east Asia and the big leisure and F&F market to Aus.

BA flights to DXB once per day EK 11 per day how did someone negotiate that deal without 'incentives' being involved
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Old 25th Jan 2024, 15:46
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
Heathrow used to have a good video on their website (may still be there) about the synergy that hubs generate. The growth of ULH hub bypass routes, where economic, doesn't seem to be making much of a dent in the hub model.
A video designed to promote the R3 concept and the Howard Davies report some years ago.

And as to the second point you are reflecting the here and now . Thats potentially not the future.
External threats include ever more political and environmental pressures that may impact or at the very least restrict the continued levels of growth potential from that very business model .

Particularly across Europe, Amsterdam, Frankfurt and even Dublin see severe restrictions on new infrastructure usage . This pattern is will only increase .

As to hub and spoke economics works within the framework of the awards “ bribes” for some up front and indeed some down the back ( many get virtually nothing in reality especially the irregular traveler)

Do I think the concept will disappear no not at all .

Where it began in the US primarily for the domestic market , it functions on a different level , akin to rail in Europe . Outside of the US it’s primarily about long haul sure enough.

Within Europe the legacies lost the battle over a decade ago to point to point flexible fares operators - Indeed this remains the Growth market by a country mile .

Within the UK MORE people fly short haul on those flexible fares operators from far more departure points than do from or via Heathrow .



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Old 25th Jan 2024, 15:54
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"As to damage to Uk interests "

You mean damage to BA - that's not the same as the rest of UK Interests - it may be better for the UK NOT to have a "national Airline" if others provide a better and cheaper service. Not everyone works in the airline business. Monopolies are generally bad for most of the public.
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Old 25th Jan 2024, 19:20
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
"As to damage to Uk interests "

You mean damage to BA - that's not the same as the rest of UK Interests - it may be better for the UK NOT to have a "national Airline" if others provide a better and cheaper service. Not everyone works in the airline business. Monopolies are generally bad for most of the public.
Might have a Chatham Dock flag on the tail and yes employs some tens of thousands , however it a contiguous part of an international consortium, with a significant shareholder ( largest by % of holdings) being the Qatari sovereign wealth funds .

Based at an airport also significantly foreign owned .

Major interests are indeed external to the UK
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Old 25th Jan 2024, 19:27
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Originally Posted by pax britanica
LHR looks to becomes an airp[ort just serving London, and entering a irreversible gradual decline and go the way of so many other UK ventures and the country
The location doesnt work any more unless T3 is built , there is an alternative location not far to the west but its called Windsor Great park -moving east would mean tens of thousands of people would have to be relocated .

Only in Uk would the country's huge international airport be sold to foreign owners which cannot help gettign it treated as vital infrastructure can it.

As to damage to Uk interests -especially BA by allowing the ME3 to have a ridiculous number of flights to siphon off much of BA (and Virgins) business .Pretty much destroyed BAs market to east Asia and the big leisure and F&F market to Aus.

BA flights to DXB once per day EK 11 per day how did someone negotiate that deal without 'incentives' being involved
UAE and GB have open sky type arrangement . Any carrier from either side can operate as many or few as they see fit .
BA have operated upto 3 per day plus VS 1 daily prior to COVID19

Least it’s not like India with their stupid seat caps . The consumer is well served !

And not just from London 👍
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Old 26th Jan 2024, 01:46
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It has been clear for nearly a decade that R3 will not be built.

Rutan16
Within Europe the legacies lost the battle over a decade ago to point to point flexible fares operators - Indeed this remains the Growth market by a country mile .

Within the UK MORE people fly short haul on those flexible fares operators from far more departure points than do from or via Heathrow .
Yes indeed. LHR (and BA + VS) have been eaten in chunks:
  • The european market for holidays and large amounts of biz traffic have gone to the LCCs and the regional airports as Rutan16 states
  • The main Euro hubs have taken a large amount of traffic going East, South East and South
  • The ME3 hubs have taken more of the Eastern and South Eastern traffic - and then created more routes by using MAN and upped their capacity
  • The USA majors have never let up in what they are prepared to take. Note that Delta now owning VS have pulled them away from many of their established routes just to serve the US
  • Smaller operators have crossed the pond from regionals and FI have taken their own little bit for those who want to give time in exchange for money
  • The long thin routes have been / are being chipped away
If R3 were to be built (and it isn't) how much of that traffic would cheerfully return?

LHR will survive, of course it will but not in the way that it might have done. The die was cast 30 years ago.

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