It has been clear for nearly a decade that R3 will not be built.
Rutan16
Within Europe the legacies lost the battle over a decade ago to point to point flexible fares operators - Indeed this remains the Growth market by a country mile .
Within the UK MORE people fly short haul on those flexible fares operators from far more departure points than do from or via Heathrow .
Yes indeed. LHR (and BA + VS) have been eaten in chunks:
- The european market for holidays and large amounts of biz traffic have gone to the LCCs and the regional airports as Rutan16 states
- The main Euro hubs have taken a large amount of traffic going East, South East and South
- The ME3 hubs have taken more of the Eastern and South Eastern traffic - and then created more routes by using MAN and upped their capacity
- The USA majors have never let up in what they are prepared to take. Note that Delta now owning VS have pulled them away from many of their established routes just to serve the US
- Smaller operators have crossed the pond from regionals and FI have taken their own little bit for those who want to give time in exchange for money
- The long thin routes have been / are being chipped away
If R3 were to be built (and it isn't) how much of that traffic would cheerfully return?
LHR will survive, of course it will but not in the way that it might have done. The die was cast 30 years ago.