Teesside-2

[Cautious Optimist]

Just ran some numbers. In the mid-2000s, there were [approximately] 17 charter or low cost airlines that did or might have served MME, and a further 15 European ones. Que the 2008 recession, and you now have four UK and five European, of which two of the latter have moved away from charter flying, and similarly the UK operators tend not to contract the European ones much any more, and there are no independent tour operators left who would contract the European ones themselves. Of the four UK operators, only one would not be deterred by the sandwich effect/overlapping catchment areas etc also caused by the 2008 recession, and might eventually consider an MME base.

[Harold77]

You are totally unbelievable Grumpy1.

You do realise that there has been at least two updates to the Business Plan since the Full Business Case was put to the cabinet for purchase and that plan had three scenarios. When he mentions that they are ahead of the business plan it is referring to the most recent updated plan.

Comparison with some random date before the investment you say.

All I have done is say that when we have last seen such numbers.

Of the three ICF scenarios of the purchase Business Case we are seem to be currently following is Scenario 2 which had expectation of 372,000 passengers by 31st March 2027.

We have completely surpassed Scenario 1 expectations.

So given Covid and the fallout that has occurred following within the aviation industry with the engine and manufacturing issues.
I am happy with progress so far, as I can read things in context it shows a picture on how things are progressing.

As far as the Business Plan it had revenue expectation based on Scenario 3 of £17m by 31st March 2023. We saw £15.6m by that date. So that will be well up on Scenario 2.
So total expected Revenues Scenario 3 to 31st March 2023 is £56.03m
Total Revenues we have seen upto 31st March 2023 is £43.38m

So taking into account the two affected Covid years, then revenues would have roughly matched that figure.

Put things into context then you can see the picture and it isn't as bad as what you make it out to be.

[Grumpy1]

Dont recall any anouncement that the much publicised business plan had been abandoned and cant find the link to the revised plan but sure Harold will be able to help.

[Harold77]

Grumpy1, The Business Plan has been updated at least twice.

But since you say you don't follow/ look at stuff online, rather just get opinions from other people, then its bound to have missed you out.

[Grumpy1]

Harold is quite correct, I most certainly dont spend my days trawling through the interweb but it would be nice if he would point a luddite and the rest of us to the big announcements and the downgraded scenario's.

[pug]

Originally Posted by Cautious Optimist

Just ran some numbers. In the mid-2000s, there were [approximately] 17 charter or low cost airlines that did or might have served MME, and a further 15 European ones. Que the 2008 recession, and you now have four UK and five European, of which two of the latter have moved away from charter flying, and similarly the UK operators tend not to contract the European ones much any more, and there are no independent tour operators left who would contract the European ones themselves. Of the four UK operators, only one would not be deterred by the sandwich effect/overlapping catchment areas etc also caused by the 2008 recession, and might eventually consider an MME base.

I was going to post a similar response to ATNotts. If you beat me to it. The operating environment has changed considerably in favour of established airports since 2008 when the lagging old guard of operators finally went to the wall.

With all the consolidation in the number of airlines, and their favouring of a smaller number of bigger departure points where they can pool resources, added to by the environmental impact of flying meaning costs are borne by the airlines (and therefor the passengers) I cannot see any appetite to start adding flights from airlports like MME, no matter how much an airport owner/operator might be prepared to throw at the airlines to entice them. I think MME should play to its strengths, but those aren’t necessarily multiple daily flights to the Spanish costas, and the local electorate should therefore not be misled to believe that this is a real growth area.

[Harold77]

All three Scenarios were put forward in the Business Case and accepted by the boards. So the Business Case was built on three Scenarios all of which are stated and outcomes described in the Business Case.

One good place for info can be the TVCA pages and Cabinet minutes for snippets.
Still expecting to hit 1.4m passengers in the next 10 years.


From TVCA January's Adoption of Investment Plan Budget 2024-25 and MTFP
Teesside Airport 47.
The Airport continues to perform in line with the revised Business plan presented to Cabinet in July 2022 and this will continue to be closely monitored.

[pug]

Originally Posted by Harold77

All three Scenarios were put forward in the Business Case and accepted by the boards. So the Business Case was built on three Scenarios all of which are stated and outcomes described in the Business Case.

One good place for info can be the TVCA pages and Cabinet minutes for snippets.
Still expecting to hit 1.4m passengers in the next 10 years.


From TVCA January's Adoption of Investment Plan Budget 2024-25 and MTFP
Teesside Airport 47.
The Airport continues to perform in line with the revised Business plan presented to Cabinet in July 2022 and this will continue to be closely monitored.

Who are ‘the board’, where have they got 1.4mppa in ten years from? Where are those airlines coming from that are going to deliver almost 5 times the current number in passenger throughput?

As things stand there are hardly any airlines and little appetite for those few airlines to invest in a small airport with low relative economic output.

Same should be said for DSA. Expecting large scale growth in passenger numbers is basically setting themselves up to fail, particularly in this climate that is not going to improve for airlines.

[Grumpy1]

People with lives are unlikely to wade through the minutes of TVCA meetings so may I again ask, were was it publicly anounced that the origional publish plans had been abandoned and downgraded.

[Harold77]

I have a busy life and can find out stuff, it only takes two minutes.

[Grumpy1]

So where and when were the important changes made public please for those of us who dont have the time to track down and read the minutes of meetings?

[onion]

The fact is that the passenger numbers are a kpi but there are others.
At the end of the day the bottom line is the most important thing. Taking that, the airport is ahead of the turnaround business plan.
Grumpy are you willing to accept the the airport is financially ahead of where it planned to be and that at the end of the day is all that counts, turning around the airport and returning it to profit?

So my question is.... are you bothered by how many passengers fly or if the airport is making progress to returning to profit?

[Harold77]

This is about the November 2020 update to the Business Plan.
https://teesvalley-ca.gov.uk/about/w...lan-Update.pdf

January 2024 meeting
Point 47 on page 8
Teesside Airport 47.
The Airport continues to perform in line with the revised Business plan presented to Cabinet in July 2022 and this will continue to be closely monitored.
Plus
Appendix E on page 25
https://teesvalley-ca.gov.uk/about/w...5-and-MTFP.pdf


Look on this page then click on dates, info about airport can be found in the following:
Mayors Update
Investment Plan Performance Report
Budget Report Medium Plan Updates
Minutes/ Draft Minutes

https://teesvalley-ca.gov.uk/about/l...gs-and-papers/

[Harold77]

Aircraft Seating Capacity 2024 with what is currently known. (This was mainly done back in early January)

Alicante 50,038
Corfu 8,316
Faro 22,680
Palma 40,926
Aberdeen 35,280
Bourgas 6,480
Dalaman 4,914
Jersey 2,736
Amsterdam 212,504

Total 383,874 aircraft seating capacity on scheduled public flights.

Public Charter flights
Reykjavik 400
Pajala 378
Enontekio 756
Isle of Man 116

Total 385,524 Aircraft Seating Capacity for Public Scheduled & Charter.

So with 2023 seeing 226,326 passengers. Adding in all the other private charters, I'd have a guess at Passenger Numbers for 2024 will be somewhere in region of 265-290k.

[N707ZS]

Under your seating capacity calculation, how many seats were there in 2023 Harold.

[Harold77]

I never done one for last year.

[Bill Darlington]

Originally Posted by N707ZS

Under your seating capacity calculation, how many seats were there in 2023 Harold.

Harold, I thank you for your informative calculations, very interesting, I not so sure the passenger numbers will increase that much
,2024 will be a tough year for all, with high interest levels, ever rising costs, fixed mortgage coming to an end and much more, holidays may well suffer and passenger levels will likely remain as per last year, and there's an election coming, does that also hinder spending.
From your figures it looks that off season load is not looking good, I'm guessing, maybe you could comment on that

[Harold77]

Why is this year different to any other year regarding mortgages. Answer is zilch, fixed rate mortgages finish every year for thousands of people all around the country. You just transfer to a new deal, There's lots of options and deals available.

[Grumpy1]

Harold asks why is this year different from any other year?
Oh now that is an easy one. Brexit, Boris Jonhson and Liz Trust. Unless anybody can offer a better explanation for mortgages and the cost of living increasing by record amounts.

[Jamesair1]

You are missing out a few 'minor' points...i.e. ..a war in Ukraine and the minor matter of Covid plus seemingly endless strikes