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Old 30th Apr 2020, 15:02
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My thoughts on having one type of crew is that this is what has been needed for a long time to bring better efficiencies and flexibility to the operation. Having one crew type won’t tick everyone’s boxes but it will align the business with other airlines across different markets.

Regarding the possible closure of LGW this could also be a wise move, leaving LGW to the LCCs and charter operators. As and when demand returns that necessitates more services from LGW and more competition, BA could always do w pattern operations from selective destinations around Europe.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 15:14
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It might be the end of BA at LGW but maybe not IAG, in a scenario where Covid damage and the economy isn’t too bad this could be a good excuse to reduce costs substantially by just transferring the slots across to Vueling/Level on lower costs. The overwhelming bulk of routes are good fits for those two anyway. Remember it’s probably more likely than not Norwegian will be gone (from the UK anyway), TCX have already gone and Virgin are shaky. There is already a gap in leisure-oriented long haul and soon this could be significant.

If Covid is truly devastating it’ll be irrelevant what happens at LGW because it’ll be all about last-gasp survival mode and utilising unwanted LHR slots and capacity for anything worthwhile currently at LGW.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 15:30
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It looks like LCY fleet and CF are going to hopefully remain untouched. I hope for the staff LGW is okay, but in the case of it going, perhaps we might see CF Embraers shuttling in and out of Gatwick on W patterns for the more profitable routes?
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 15:32
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Have people seen this

https://petition.parliament.uk/petit...JNFG8lAroPI0Kc

Might not do much good but we can only try
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 15:38
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Originally Posted by nowhereasfiled View Post
It looks like LCY fleet and CF are going to hopefully remain untouched. I hope for the staff LGW is okay, but in the case of it going, perhaps we might see CF Embraers shuttling in and out of Gatwick on W patterns for the more profitable routes?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52489013?SThisFB

Gatwick is not “ok” BBC suggest it’s not coming back.
Look with the market collapsed, if BA want to fly LON-xyz, they’ll serve it from LHR only, not LGW, not LCY.
None of these 2nd hand Embraers are even likely to enter service. Any LCY routes that overlap with LHR ought to close as IAG need to make their money and protect their position at LHR. Barclays today is thinking about giving up their Canary Wharf offices, the world is changing very fast here.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 15:48
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OTOH if BA abandon LCY, who will take up the slack - maybe less demand, but demand from money-rich time-poor passengers usually on expenses. Will BA gift that to the likes of KLM, DLH, Air France. Luxair? I don't think so.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 16:44
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Staff recently received an email from Tom Stoddart (CF MD) stating that Cityflyer are not part of BA’s announced cuts.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 18:58
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BA

Am sure BA/IAG would want to keep a defensive foothold at LGW as an even more highly frequent easyJet would definitely potentially impact the commercial performance of LHR with a highly overlapping P2P catchment. I understood LGW to be overall profitable and if it wasn’t strategically of importance why buy ZB/MT slots ? Could be some negotiation positioning going on here ? I believe LGW is important to protect LHR for BA. But then maybe the world has changed. Then again in time LHR will be full again, poss very delayed R3 if they give up LGW en masses they may never get back in. Then where (with lack of R3) do you expand ? Unless of course they are precipitating no VS, open up London and consolidate and grow LHR - bit of crystal ball gazing LGW flleet takes up VS
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 19:43
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Originally Posted by TOM100 View Post
Am sure BA/IAG would want to keep a defensive foothold at LGW as an even more highly frequent easyJet would definitely potentially impact the commercial performance of LHR with a highly overlapping P2P catchment. I understood LGW to be overall profitable and if it wasn’t strategically of importance why buy ZB/MT slots ? Could be some negotiation positioning going on here ? I believe LGW is important to protect LHR for BA. But then maybe the world has changed. Then again in time LHR will be full again, poss very delayed R3 if they give up LGW en masses they may never get back in. Then where (with lack of R3) do you expand ? Unless of course they are precipitating no VS, open up London and consolidate and grow LHR - bit of crystal ball gazing LGW flleet takes up VS
If this Covid problem is not solved PDQ, there will not be a full Heathrow again in the next ten years +. There will also be absolutely no necessity to expand at Gatwick, either. The world is staring into the abyss here. The virus will not, of itself, wipe out humanity; but its effect on the economy (through lockdowns etc.) will cause a depression the likes of which will seriously threaten social breakdown. All airlines are threatened with devastation - even if they get Government bail outs. How long will they be able to keep on bailing out the airlines if the virus is not beaten very quickly ? Not very long. I have great sympathy with BA (& all the rest); they have to try & survive - if they can; & they are all playing politics to help them achieve it. Also, there is NO question that BA are using this situation to try & shaft the staff (way over & above what they need to do to shore up their finances). On the other hand, the staff need to be as flexible as they can be & to realise that normal service - or anything remotely resembling normality - is not going to be resumed ; ever ! I wish you all the very best & the greatest luck in the world - & pray that BA & BALPA will achieve the fairest way to proceed.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 19:43
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In their letter to BALPA British Airways have said they are looking to amend the scope agreements. My immediate thought is that they are looking to replace mainline at Gatwick with Cityflyer and retreat all mainline flying to Heathrow.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 19:47
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Originally Posted by EMB-145LR View Post
In their letter to BALPA British Airways have said they are looking to amend the scope agreements. My immediate thought is that they are looking to replace mainline at Gatwick with Cityflyer and retreat all mainline flying to Heathrow.
Or allow Cityflyer from LHR.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 20:01
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The 1918 flu pandemic was rather more severe than Covid, yet the world carried on. Over 100 years later, medicine has advanced hugely. Ebola is a disease which mainly affects people living in the very poorest of countries - i.e. not places where the stockmarket worries about particularly - yet a vaccine was found. Big pharma and medical researchers at universities all over the world are throwing everything they've got a Covid; vaccines from reputable institutions are already being trialled. While I cannot predict what will or won't happen and the comments from BA about Gatwick are deeply concerning, please take a deep breath and try to get a sense of perspective of the likely long term effect of Covid on BA and LHR/LGW. Once a vaccine is found, we are likely to see a recovery in demand for flying
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 20:25
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Maybe some kite flying of a few nuclear options going on, so when BA “cave in” and everyone breathes a sigh of relief they will be trying not to look too smug as they will actually have got what they’ve wanted for a long time.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 20:41
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post
The 1918 flu pandemic was rather more severe than Covid, yet the world carried on. Over 100 years later, medicine has advanced hugely. Ebola is a disease which mainly affects people living in the very poorest of countries - i.e. not places where the stockmarket worries about particularly - yet a vaccine was found. Big pharma and medical researchers at universities all over the world are throwing everything they've got a Covid; vaccines from reputable institutions are already being trialled. While I cannot predict what will or won't happen and the comments from BA about Gatwick are deeply concerning, please take a deep breath and try to get a sense of perspective of the likely long term effect of Covid on BA and LHR/LGW. Once a vaccine is found, we are likely to see a recovery in demand for flying
But my take is that BA are in the gradual recovery camp ; it is only partly about the virus, the rest is about the economic consequences of the virus. If you have 62% of the slots in one of the most premium airports in the world, everything else is secondary to maintaining as much of that position as possible.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 21:01
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post
The 1918 flu pandemic was rather more severe than Covid, yet the world carried on. Over 100 years later, medicine has advanced hugely. Ebola is a disease which mainly affects people living in the very poorest of countries - i.e. not places where the stockmarket worries about particularly - yet a vaccine was found. Big pharma and medical researchers at universities all over the world are throwing everything they've got a Covid; vaccines from reputable institutions are already being trialled. While I cannot predict what will or won't happen and the comments from BA about Gatwick are deeply concerning, please take a deep breath and try to get a sense of perspective of the likely long term effect of Covid on BA and LHR/LGW. Once a vaccine is found, we are likely to see a recovery in demand for flying
Yes, David, what you say is true - no argument. But, Covid isn't finished yet; & it is not the medical effect that is most worrying, it is the economic; & Governments' reactions to that. Also, a vaccine will be a while coming. My point is that we probably don't have the time to wait before everything goes to ragshit. I could be wrong, but I don't think that the basic premise of my comment is too far off the mark. We do not have too much time going on like this !
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Old 1st May 2020, 02:13
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I note that to often the reference is to BA! The reality is IAG are calling the shots and what counts are their plans. LGW can be operated by Vueling, Level and Iberia Express, particularly as IAG will in the future have a large fleet of surplus aircrafts. Indeed BA CityFlyer may also have a role to play at LHR and LGW, though immediate future of social distancing on an EMB will be a challenge. With the sad likelihood of at least 1 in 5 job losses it will be years before people have the finances to fly as frequently as they used to.
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Old 1st May 2020, 08:20
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though immediate future of social distancing on an EMB
Not just on an EMB! The issue is the same for every other airliner.
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Old 1st May 2020, 10:56
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Quite honestly, if airlines are relying on social distancing as a way to restart then the whole lot are screwed as there will be no money to be made. The ONLY way out of this for the airlines is an effective vaccine. Until that happens everything is on hold.
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Old 1st May 2020, 13:04
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Originally Posted by TartinTon View Post
Quite honestly, if airlines are relying on social distancing as a way to restart then the whole lot are screwed as there will be no money to be made. The ONLY way out of this for the airlines is an effective vaccine. Until that happens everything is on hold.
Quite apart from the issue of social distancing within airport terminals.
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Old 2nd May 2020, 11:55
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Be interesting if similar criteria is imposed on BA - should they receive a gov dot uk bale out - as been imposed on Air France w.r.t. short domestic flights:

https://www.railjournal.com/passenge...ail-in-france/

That would surely kill LHR to both MAN and LBA, and even NCL GLA and EDI if the French 1 h 15 min flight became a UK 1 h 30 m.

And UK+FR for example and/or other lands acting together could kill off LHR CDG / BRU, and so on. in favour of channel tunnel - in terms of flight time, if 1 h 30 m were set.

--
Nick

Last edited by D7666; 2nd May 2020 at 12:05.
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