Airlines, Airports & Routes Topics about airports, routes and airline business.

Derry/Londonderry 2

Old 30th Mar 2018, 18:31
  #121 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 349
Originally Posted by cuthere View Post
There were several cancellations, especially at Glasgow, in February. Hardly surprising numbers are down.
For the load factor to be the same as last year, it would have required a quarter of flights to GLA to have been cancelled in February. That could have been the case - I don't have the cancelation figures - but even so, Ryanair's loads weren't great last year either, so it wouldn't be much of an achievement to exceed them. Hopefully Loganair achieve better results when they take over the route in October.
A320.b744 is offline  
Old 30th Mar 2018, 22:10
  #122 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 264
Originally Posted by A320.b744 View Post
For the load factor to be the same as last year, it would have required a quarter of flights to GLA to have been cancelled in February. That could have been the case - I don't have the cancelation figures - but even so, Ryanair's loads weren't great last year either, so it wouldn't be much of an achievement to exceed them. Hopefully Loganair achieve better results when they take over the route in October.
From memory there was around 5 cancelled. Summer is always really strong. It will just need to be a really really strong summer. I wonder what is next for the airport after Loganair have settled back in. Increasing the frequencies on that route or keep targeting Manchester and Dublin?
Fly757X is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 13:48
  #123 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 17
Hi all,

Sorry this is my first post but I just had to get involved with this forum. I've been monitoring it for a while and what an interesting discussion it has turned out to be! Surely it would be worth the community creating a startup? You would be surprised how little startup capital is needed to start operations with a single ATR 42. There is the potential to bid for the PSO when that comes round shortly and that's 2-4 million in cash right there in capital if an advance payment deal is reached. I have ran up some figures and it is very possible indeed. Just a thought I had, there must be people on PPRuNe who know a thing or two about aviation management and would love to get on board. You have all the residents of Derry and the save the airport Facebook page especially who would be delighted with a low fare community startup never mind the grants and financial backing the council and council committee would give if needed. CODA would be delighted and the landing fees are dirt cheap as it is. Just a thought however let me know what you think...

James,
jamessh is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 16:54
  #124 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 264
Originally Posted by jamessh View Post
Hi all,

Sorry this is my first post but I just had to get involved with this forum. I've been monitoring it for a while and what an interesting discussion it has turned out to be! Surely it would be worth the community creating a startup? You would be surprised how little startup capital is needed to start operations with a single ATR 42. There is the potential to bid for the PSO when that comes round shortly and that's 2-4 million in cash right there in capital if an advance payment deal is reached. I have ran up some figures and it is very possible indeed. Just a thought I had, there must be people on PPRuNe who know a thing or two about aviation management and would love to get on board. You have all the residents of Derry and the save the airport Facebook page especially who would be delighted with a low fare community startup never mind the grants and financial backing the council and council committee would give if needed. CODA would be delighted and the landing fees are dirt cheap as it is. Just a thought however let me know what you think...

James,
After the previous event of "Irelair" there would little/no support. What the airport needs is the reduction in APD and regional based carriers like the one you suggested. Making a airline is a lot more than playing AirlinesEmpire. As for the PSO I think BMI will continue with it as there hasn't been too many issues with it bar a few weeks ago but that has all cleared up. I like the ambition but realistically it takes much more than a group from an aviation forum to make something like this come off.
Fly757X is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 20:01
  #125 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 17
fish

Originally Posted by Fly757X View Post
After the previous event of "Irelair" there would little/no support. What the airport needs is the reduction in APD and regional based carriers like the one you suggested. Making a airline is a lot more than playing AirlinesEmpire. As for the PSO I think BMI will continue with it as there hasn't been too many issues with it bar a few weeks ago but that has all cleared up. I like the ambition but realistically it takes much more than a group from an aviation forum to make something like this come off.
Well said Fly757X, I agree to a majority. Obviously this isn't the first option anyone should take however someone needs to come and pick up a few routes and get some destinations on the board. I think the everyone would be a bit surprised at the load's you could get. Even 20,000 pax on a single route is plenty enough to fill an ATR 42 which is the perfect size for the route. Can't understand why Stobart Air won't touch it with barge pole the capacity seems suited to their operations. Not all of their aircraft can be flying EI Regional can they? Just someone needs to go in and show some commitment and consistency in the routes and daily departures, i's in the airports best interest it's too uneconomical to operate an airport with pax numbers that low isn't it?
jamessh is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 20:06
  #126 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Ireland
Posts: 1,593
Originally Posted by jamessh View Post
Hi all,
You would be surprised how little startup capital is needed to start operations with a single ATR 42. There is the potential to bid for the PSO when that comes round shortly and that's 2-4 million in cash right there in capital if an advance payment deal is reached.
James,


That explains why there are so many successful regional airline startups these days, right?

Before you go too far in your cunning plan to demand PSO funding up front to cover startup costs (surely an offer that the PSO granting authority couldn't refuse?), please look into the concept of "financial fitness".

Here's an extract from a relevant page of the CAA website (my emphasis):
Applicants for a Type A Operating Licence must demonstrate that they have sufficient funding for the first two years of operations, including that they are able to meet their costs for the first three months of operations without income.

The exact amount of funding is established by the CAA based on a realistic business plan submitted by the applicant.
The idea of starting an airline is very seductive. It is also an exceptionally fast route to financial disaster. I would love to see more regional airlines and my sincere good wishes go to anyone with a well-founded plan for launching a new carrier, but I'm sorry, if you come in to this forum and announce in your very first post to an audience which includes a range of current and past airline professionals who still bear the scars "You would be surprised how little startup capital is needed to start operations with a single ATR 42..." you lose every shred of credibility in my eyes. How many regional airlines have you been involved with?

If you are interested in this area, then I would genuinely encourage you to study it in more detail, whether at college or by working in the industry to gain a basic sense of how precarious the economics are.
Cyrano is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 21:02
  #127 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 264
Originally Posted by Cyrano View Post


That explains why there are so many successful regional airline startups these days, right?

Before you go too far in your cunning plan to demand PSO funding up front to cover startup costs (surely an offer that the PSO granting authority couldn't refuse?), please look into the concept of "financial fitness".

Here's an extract from a relevant page of the CAA website (my emphasis):
Applicants for a Type A Operating Licence must demonstrate that they have sufficient funding for the first two years of operations, including that they are able to meet their costs for the first three months of operations without income.

The exact amount of funding is established by the CAA based on a realistic business plan submitted by the applicant.
The idea of starting an airline is very seductive. It is also an exceptionally fast route to financial disaster. I would love to see more regional airlines and my sincere good wishes go to anyone with a well-founded plan for launching a new carrier, but I'm sorry, if you come in to this forum and announce in your very first post to an audience which includes a range of current and past airline professionals who still bear the scars "You would be surprised how little startup capital is needed to start operations with a single ATR 42..." you lose every shred of credibility in my eyes. How many regional airlines have you been involved with?

If you are interested in this area, then I would genuinely encourage you to study it in more detail, whether at college or by working in the industry to gain a basic sense of how precarious the economics are.

As stated here it is a high risk start. Starting airlines have a lot of under lying costs. Many of them are fundamental to applying for suitable licences. It just cannot be done with out a huge outreach to investors and having that stability in the back pocket. Have a look at Firnas. They are too ambitious in my eyes but they do have an aircraft in livery. This was achieved through years of support from investors and research from business representatives. Not the type found on this type of forum. With your plan it is af you get awarded this lot of if/buts. For example, iPSO contract (Won't happen when there is long established British/Irish companies competing for it) You will then use the money intended for establishing the base and route to fund the equipment. Completely omitting the fact you need type rated pilots and feet on the ground to ensure a smooth operation. LDY-Greater London is also a very niche market. One can simply not intend to operate a PSO route as their only source of "income."
Fly757X is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 22:19
  #128 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 100
Few bangs to the head tonight
buzz_hornet is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 23:25
  #129 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 17
Guys I have three points here,

1: Gentlemen it seems there has been a is-understanding. I myself am no Aviation professional but I believe I know more than the average hobbyist. My intention was not to state that I will start an airline out of thin air. It was more of a call to light why nobody has done it. As for the PSO point, this is a good argument. Of course no one would dream of using all of the PSO to put towards equipment you could maybe go through the 50/50 route and have the other half put into the pot to cover any loss making first few months and any troubling periods. I am no aviation expert and never stated that, my intention was to simply argue the point of if worst came to worst at CODA it would perhaps be a viable option for both the airport and the 'airline' who wished to operate flights. I was simply trying to state it is a potentially viable option if done right. Wideroe in Norway have based an entire business on PSO and this was a part of CityWing's business model.

2: There seems to be a constant negativity surrounding startup airlines in general. It's almost like people want or are expecting them to fail before they get in the air. Air Wales was what I believe to be a fairly successful airline (I put it's demise down to poor financial decisions) that was started on the back of nothing. It is an example of a startup that served a relativity niche market and was a massive boost for EGFF. I just don't understand the constant hate towards startup airlines especially in the UK. I think it would be nice to see more popping up every now and again. I do however agree that Firnas are going nowhere. Not being hypocritical but I believe that they are destined to fail for many reasons maybe that calls for a thread? Please link me if there already is one

3: Moving away from airline startup talk, the situation with BMI Regional. I am thrilled that CODA now has regular traffic and things do seem to be in an upward trend. I do however disagree with the pricing on the BMI route. The lowest I have found it is 89 return which is what I think is steep considering how cheap landing fees at CODA and Stansted, the aircraft are owned outright, they are relativity fuel efficient and they have 3.8 million extra in the bank to go alongside. It just seems strange that they are over charging for this. Can someone shed light on this? Additionally while we are on this subject does anyone know why Stobart Air have not looked into Derry? I understand that aerarran tried and failed but I just cannot see why 10 years later they didn't give it ago and run for the PSO or any other routers from the airport.

Sorry again guys if I have caused offense or can across wrong. I was just making a point and I have worded it horribly. Let's start afresh? happy flying!
jamessh is offline  
Old 4th Apr 2018, 23:30
  #130 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: BNE, Australia
Posts: 256
Stobart (i.e. Aer lingus regional) have only one AT46 anyway and it is committed to the Donegal PSO. The other two frames in their fleet have been parked up for good after a long time in service.

So they won't be looking at operating out of LDY.
chuboy is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 01:58
  #131 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 17
Thumbs up

Originally Posted by chuboy View Post
Stobart (i.e. Aer lingus regional) have only one AT46 anyway and it is committed to the Donegal PSO. The other two frames in their fleet have been parked up for good after a long time in service.

So they won't be looking at operating out of LDY.
Thanks for the information I thought a low yield airline like Stobart would put two parked ATR 42's to good use. They are in good shape after all... Anyone know what aircraft are inactive?
jamessh is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 02:59
  #132 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 2,494
Jamessh,
I read your post with interest. Many will be negative about start up airlines and with hid reason. The costs involved are enormous, and few banks will fund such a venture. The cash burn is enormous in set up phase and scale is required to make any airline work. The time it takes to get to a scale that makes sense is costly, and as history had shown few achieve it. The number of airlines had declined enormously to boot.

It isn't easy getting accepted for PSOs and even more difficult having new ones implemented. Furthermore, the authority granting them will prefer well established successful airlines who are financially sound for the investment!!!

Citywing and AirWales are good examples that you mention. Clearly neither are with us and they faced the pressures of cost, competition and indeed the lack of any sustainable competitive advantage.

Bmi regional charge top dollar because they can, they have a very limited supply if seats in the market for a premium offering in terms of timings etc. And sun for those who are most time precious. Makes sounds commercial sense to me. The aircraft they operate is far from fuel efficient, two jet engines on an aircraft that burns significantly more fuel than say a turboprop like a saab 2000, ATR72 or Dash8...

Stobart's former self Aer Arann have looked into LDY, and at a point planned new routes to MAN and BHX, but they were cancelled before go live. I'm sure if you look back far enough on this forum you'll see the details. Today for Stobart, on a commercial basis, the question is not whether a route will work, it is a question of where will placing the aircraft give the greatest return, so given the history of LDY routes etc. They may shy away..

Loganair who have a long history of serving airports in Ulster and at one time they were very big operating from CFN, LDY and BHD, could be a great option, as they have expertise in connecting small communities with appropriately sized aircraft on a sustainable footing. They were once a multiple daily operator on e.g. BHD MAN with 146 jets and that was as recent as the end of the 90's!!!!
EI-BUD is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 07:52
  #133 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: UK
Age: 70
Posts: 2,154
jamessh

It would be great if what you propose was a realiseable ambition but unfortunately it just isn't. I'm not knocking your obvious enthusiasm but people like Cyrano and EI-BUD really do know what they are talking about. I have been involved with three or four such projects in the past 10 years in the UK and Europe and none have progressed beyond the feasibility study stage. "You would be surprised how little startup capital is needed to start operations with a single ATR 42"?? No, you would be amazed how much funding is needed I'm afraid.
Expressflight is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 10:31
  #134 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Galway ROI
Posts: 100
Wish you a the genuine luck. But these guys know their stuff I fear .
It's a massive undertaking to get started . Just look atvStobarts CAX project.
A company as cash richvas they are still had to take a massive grant .
I'm not an expert , I have flown very all aircraft and even that is a serious undertaking .But I admire your determination and spirit .
Perhaps your missing one avenue and not being an expert I'm not sure this could be done. But if you have the community support.
I naturally gather youd have started everywhere from community to town councils - county council's who set transport policy .
But have you thought about approaching Stobart with a form business case .
After getting online and written votes in shops fuel stations etal in say a 40 mile/80km radius around the Airport to show the pax would turn up.
Why REPEAT THE BMI route they are not going anywhere why would they ?.
You need to start somewhere unserved that your reasonable sure will bring you money.
But with good onward links.
England's south is not the centre of the Universe . But you do have LPL huge with Irish air travellers . MAN for its stupendous offerings and double runway high status profile . You'd need a tie on to offer seamless tickets to onward destinations. EG Kbos NYC AMS LFPG (can't think of the short code ) you'd get free slots around London and Southend I expect but that's your lot .
Internal Irish flights to other airports in the republic might be good but again it's lobbying I think to get them. If your so sure of the support . Might not that be a way to get where your aiming at ? Before you plunge into buying a not small aircraft.
Remember Ryanair started small much smaller an EMB120 then moved to aged bac1/11 the sheer eye watering funds you'd need to fly operate maintain and provide a replacement aircraft to cover tech is not for the feint of heart surely ??.
Airport fees , ABP . Do you sell you seats cheap so you end up overbooking and underserved ? Or price high and getvaclow yeild ?.
I'm not even close to expert and these are questions I can come up with.
I feel putting together solid proof that your routes ( and you need to give more than one imho.) Projected numbers really stack up. Lower your sights , SF340 is about the bar for small aircraft is it not?.
One thing there is not in Eireann is any links between the provinces and republic's regional airports .
Eg Shannon , Cork for example . They could work if only because the drive is immense and trains are dying off.
Indo wish you luck but I fear as many said this is not as plain sailing as you wish .
EGPO is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 14:55
  #135 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 264
Moving on... I heard on the Stephen Nolan show earlier that the airport produced a statement saying that they continue to expect "220,000" passengers to pass through the airport in 2018.

An interesting debate: https://audioboom.com/posts/6777164-...money-bbcnolan
Fly757X is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 15:29
  #136 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 349
Originally Posted by Fly757X View Post
Moving on... I heard on the Stephen Nolan show earlier that the airport produced a statement saying that they continue to expect "220,000" passengers to pass through the airport in 2018.

An interesting debate: https://audioboom.com/posts/6777164-...money-bbcnolan
LDY management clearly haven't looked at their own figures! Airlines are offering 236,338 seats in 2018. Passenger numbers for January and February 2018 show that 9,416 seats have already not been sold, meaning for LDY to achieve their 'target' of 220,000 pax, there have to be 6,922 or fewer free seats during March-December.

I have looked extensively at the statistics, and unless LDY have a huge announcement up their sleeve, passenger numbers will almost certainly fall again in 2018 to between 180,000-190,000 passengers.
A320.b744 is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 15:42
  #137 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 264
Originally Posted by A320.b744 View Post
LDY management clearly haven't looked at their own figures! Airlines are offering 236,338 seats in 2018. Passenger numbers for January and February 2018 show that 9,416 seats have already not been sold, meaning for LDY to achieve their 'target' of 220,000 pax, there have to be 6,922 or fewer free seats during March-December.

I have looked extensively at the statistics, and unless LDY have a huge announcement up their sleeve, passenger numbers will almost certainly fall again in 2018 to between 180,000-190,000 passengers.
I know, it is completely farcical but it is directed at an audience with little knowledge in this field. Still quite interesting listening nevertheless.
Fly757X is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 16:04
  #138 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 100
Originally Posted by Fly757X View Post
I know, it is completely farcical but it is directed at an audience with little knowledge in this field. Still quite interesting listening nevertheless.

the councillor didnt know the airport had a stn morning/night flight
buzz_hornet is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 22:15
  #139 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: On the road
Posts: 668
I also think what is being missed here is what a PSO actually means. There are various flavours that can be used but in this case it's not a case of someone from CODA turning up at the bmi offices each year with a large bag of cash for them to play with. The PSO is an underwrite i.e. the airline is expected to generate certain revenues that COULD get underpinned by the PSO monies up to a certain amount. This dream of a large bag of cash being given to an airline to help with a startup is just ridiculous as that's just not how it works. As for 89 return fares being "steep". You clearly have no notion of airline costs if that's your opinion.
TartinTon is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2018, 22:41
  #140 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Londonderry
Posts: 100
First choice holidays on sale for 2019
buzz_hornet is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.