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Old 31st Oct 2016, 20:39
  #6421 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LAX_LHR
The next year or 2 is going to be interesting, and if we can keep the majority of what we have in tact until we get pre-clearance, then we should be ok.
Therein lies the key. Getting as much of the present network bedded in and established so that it can grow when the USPBC arrives...
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Old 31st Oct 2016, 22:16
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Therein lies the key. Getting as much of the present network bedded in and established so that it can grow when the USPBC arrives...
I'm not convinced AA and UA will have the patience to wait that long - they're all about maximizing short term profits and shareholder returns / management bonuses. And they both have large networks to re-deploy assets into when a particular market goes pear shaped for them.

In the UK regions they are both facing the double whammy of an uncertain UK outbound market for next year due to the weaker pound etc, and better quality offerings from the competition. The next few months will be interesting
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Old 31st Oct 2016, 23:19
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Pre clearance would have been the obvious advantage for carriers such as AA UA over Heathrow. I cannot see it having any effect on TCX Norwegian pax etc as their client base is likely to book ex Manchester regardless of PC or not. Those punters will doubtless not have a clue.

Yes of course it helps pax from the Manchester catchment area BUT it should really have been a major catalyst to swing traffic to Manchester as thee only UK airport with the facility.

A truly golden opportunity.

It would be a bitter irony indeed if in the very year it gets the go ahead the client base for which it was really required evaporates.
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Old 1st Nov 2016, 00:00
  #6424 (permalink)  
 
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The cost of USPC for MAN will be high as I believe the US are no longer funding staff so for MAN to fund such costs and make a profit they need to ensure it's competitively priced as it adds to carriers costs which passengers will have to foot.

Have the US officially confirmed it yet (or at least publicly)?

I wouldn't see it as a "make or break" perk for a carrier to be sustainable or not. Simple fact is profit must be there without it. Big concern is once current £/$ hedging runs out from the US carriers they could be hit massively.

The consumer is almost totally driven on price of tickets (followed by brand loyalty), I know nobody who would pick USPC before departure over cheaper tickets. As for regular travelers it dons't matter where you do it as it's pretty quick.
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Old 1st Nov 2016, 06:11
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USPBC will be fine at Manchester, and it's client base will make good use of it, I'm sure MAN knows what it's doing.

Last edited by LAX_LHR; 1st Nov 2016 at 06:29.
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Old 1st Nov 2016, 14:35
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Terminal 3 experience.

Arrived back from Tenerife with Vueling last night. Terminal 3 arrivals experience was a shambles.

We disembarked down the gate 53/54 end then had to walk past a crowded passport control to join the rear of the queue which was back to gate 50 in the other direction. At the front of the queue MAG staff were directing as many people as possible to use the e-passport readers, which proved to be slower than the queue for the limited number of manned desks. Half the desks available were unmanned. (Someone who I was travelling with didn't have an e-passport and got through quicker. There was also one of the e-gates out of action).

There was a clear them and us relationship between MAG staff and border control. One member of MAG staff was heard to say to another that the queue was back to 50 now. Another said there was nothing they could do.

When we finally got through passport control we waited up to 50 mins for the bags from our flight to appear on the belt. An inaudible announcement was made in the baggage hall, to which one man shouted over towards the info office "we didn't hear a bl#%*y thing" which made everyone laugh. The belt then false started a couple of times before bags began to appear with a sarcastic cheer from all waiting. Passengers from other flights appeared from border control expecting their bags on the belt, only to find our bags were yet to arrive. I understand that bags can't be whizzed out straight away, but it was obvious that there were not enough resources to cope with multiple holiday flights arriving at the same time. The meet and greet service was however excellent as usual.

This contrasts with our outbound experience of T3 departures which was hassle free, with very little queuing required and friendly service from all staff encountered. The retail and catering offer in T3 is also much improved from what I remember from my last visit a few years ago. First time flying with Vueling, was impressed and would consider them again in the future.
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Old 1st Nov 2016, 15:11
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£1.2M Baggage belt

Wow, £1.2M for baggage belt ! Now if they could sort out the T3 drop off area, the under capacity of T3 lounge area, under capacity of T3 escape lounge then I "might" start using it for domestic flights again (maybe).
https://buyingbusinesstravel.com/new...2m-t3-arrivals
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Old 1st Nov 2016, 15:47
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So, to fill up all those flights is going to be a tough call, it's going to need a bit of patience, but, as long as all the carriers can weather the turbulence, it should come out the other side in relatively good health.
This is almost the opposite of how publicly traded companies think. They think QoQ and that flyable asset is supremely mobile. You might recall a while back you argued blind with me that American would fly MAN-JFK/ORD/PHL/CLT and I strongly said CLT, the likely weakest would go. What we're seeing is perhaps a mini bubble with a right sizing to come over the next few years. American have already dropped BHX and United dropped NCL, of course the flip side of that may be that the strategy is to feed those passengers onto the remaining UK regional network rather than funnel them over LHR.
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Old 1st Nov 2016, 16:04
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Skipness,

I think you've got the wrong end of the stick.

I actually agree tough times are ahead, hence why I have said that I don't think the UA Washington flight is long for this world.

I'm not suggesting the US carriers plough on through regardless of any losses, what I am saying is, if we can just about make it through the next year or 2 without any further cuts while the new flights bed in, then we should start to see the flux return to normal.
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Old 1st Nov 2016, 16:59
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Make or Break USPBC

"I wouldn't see it as a "make or break" perk for a carrier to be sustainable or not. Simple fact is profit must be there without it. Big concern is once current £/$ hedging runs out from the US carriers they could be hit massively. "

I think you may underestimate the impact of USPBC for business travel.

Removing an unpredictable multi-hour delay from immigration adds a usable night onto a trip. That's 33% more usable nights on a Monday to Friday trip. This can easily turn an unattractive routing into an attractive one.

Notice how LCY lost a JFK rotation after USPBC access for it was lost.

I think the real threat to pre-clearance is the expansion of known traveller programs. As these continue to expand out the benefit of pre-clearance to frequent and high revenue pax may all but disappear.

Last edited by pilot9249; 1st Nov 2016 at 17:37.
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Old 1st Nov 2016, 17:17
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But the LCY flight used to be twice a day and will soon reduce to one a day, and the flight that has been cut is the afternoon flight that doesn't clear immigration, that's what the poster was trying to say
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Old 1st Nov 2016, 18:50
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Tunisair to begin A330 service to Monastir from 1st December according to their Twitter account.
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Old 1st Nov 2016, 19:22
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sptraveller

LCY cuts had nothing to do with immergration, suggesting otherwise is madness.

Delays entering the US are not massive either. I predict USCBP will have little bearing on future T/A growth ex MAN, just look at 2016/2017 growth. The market will decide if x or y is viable no where checks are carried out.

You could argue it has at DUB but the reality is EI opening up transit routes is whats driven numbers on the back of competitive fares, the rest is just a bonus.
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Old 2nd Nov 2016, 13:58
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October traffic / rolling figures / ain't no stopping SQ
When the polls close at midnight I predict an impressive set of figures (pax and ATMs) for MAN this October. Both sets of figures have been in double-digits for most of the month, and this last weekend saw over 20% year on year growth for Friday alone. I can't think of any unusual seasonal factors this year, or misaligned school holidays, so I think we are just seeing a continuing strong trend. Despite my caution last month I do think that the rolling 25M pax p.a. may well be reached when October's figures are published, or if not, very close.
Roverman, I was expecting something in the media by now had the magical 25m pax figure been reached. There were suggestions on another forum that a passenger on the first SQ to IAH might be selected to mark the milestone. Have you any update?

Also, I think it was mentioned that the airport tend to use Terminal pax as the measure, and exclude transits. Although not very significant, they may make the difference as to whether 25m was achieved in Oct. or will fall into Nov.
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Old 2nd Nov 2016, 14:03
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The airport have confirmed in a TAS meeting that the 25m passenger mark had been passed. Awaiting the press release, a lot happening at the moment.
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Old 2nd Nov 2016, 15:29
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The airport have confirmed in a TAS meeting that the 25m passenger mark had been passed. Awaiting the press release, a lot happening at the moment.
You're right it was announced as I was at the meeting. I was just curious why it hadn't made the media yet. Hope your last comment means there are a few press releases to come?
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Old 4th Nov 2016, 13:08
  #6437 (permalink)  
 
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Manchester Airport edges closer to logistics development | SHD Logistics

Do any locals know if this is correct , it equates to nearly £120bn over 60 years. I'm staggered as that is almost as much as Heathrow! That cannot be correct can it?
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Old 4th Nov 2016, 13:49
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Originally Posted by Navpi
Manchester Airport edges closer to logistics development | SHD Logistics

Do any locals know if this is correct , it equates to nearly £120bn over 60 years. I'm staggered as that is almost as much as Heathrow! That cannot be correct can it?
Almost as much as the additional benefit provided by the third runway. Heathrow currently estimated to generate £6.8bn of GVA annually which would equate to >£400bn over 60 years.

Has anyone ever told you Navpi that your syntax is remarkably similar to the contributor formerly known as Bagso...
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Old 4th Nov 2016, 15:17
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Almost as much as the additional benefit provided by the third runway. Heathrow currently estimated to generate £6.8bn of GVA annually which would equate to >£400bn over 60 years.
Oh sorry, I thought this was the Manchester thread. I seem to recall one or two members from here got the red card when they ventured onto the LHR and R3 threads.

It's strange how a few like to denigrate or belittle developments at Manchester Airport.
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Old 4th Nov 2016, 16:14
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Anyway those sorts of numbers are meaningless. MAN generates £1.9bn per annum for the NW economy. Relative to what? A scenario where MAN doesn't exist and the rest of the world carries on as normal? Get real.
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