BIRMINGHAM - 6
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July International & Domestic scheduled route analysis
Provisional monthly passengers figures from the CAA.
Average passengers per flight - own records, libhomeradar and a BHX Bl*g
Some routes have IT pax included and have not been calculated such the Canary Isles destinations, Malta and Dubrovnik.
Not a lot to say other than a good month. I suppose you would have expected the Air India and American to show higher figures for the month of July but United only lost a few hundred pax with AA starting.
Route.................2015.........2014.....Avg.........%
BRUSSELS..........13533........9652.......70........79%
TORONTO............3167........3134......317.......93%
DUBROVNIK..........5260........5060
SPLIT......................0........4031
LARNACA.............8822........8705......192.......96%
PAPHOS..............4840........3373.......186......90%
COPENHAGEN.......3941........6106........73.......81% Fewer flights
HURGHADA...............0........1400
SHARM EL S........6991........5262.......194.......91%
AVIGNON..............818......... 512........68.......77%
BASTIA...............515..............0........64.......73%
BERGERAC.......... 2110.........1518.......75.......86%
BIARRITZ.............609..............0.......76........81%
BORDEAUX..........2665.........2545.......74........84%
BREST.................784.........1126.......65 ........74%
DEAUVILLE..........1042.............0.......40.........50%
LA ROCHELLE.......1133.........758........57........ 68%
LYON.................4677.........4371.......75........86%
NICE..................4740........5504......139........ 84%
PARIS (CDG)......40008.......36281.....118........87% - very high
PERPIGNAN......... 2743.........3076.....171........ 91%
TOULOUSE...............0.........3814.
BERLIN (TEGEL)....4171.........3622......67.........76%
COLOGNE.................0.........2757
DUSSELDORF......19655.......16956......58.........65%
FRANKFURT........32580.......30042.....131........79%
HAMBURG............3164.........3228......59.........68%
HANOVER........... .3761........ 6103......59.........75%
MUNICH.............17460.......16593.....103.........84%
STUTTGART.........7017.........7138......65.........75%
GIBRALTAR...........3892.........4149.....150........86%
ATHENS...............2814.........2428.....156........89%
HERAKLION...........2603.........2521.....145........82%
PREVEZA..............1482..............0.....185........87%
KEFLAVIK.............2315.........1604......129.......68%
AMRITSAR............4370..............0..see Delhi
DELHI ..................6110........5984......169........66%
CORK...................7026........6663.......61........84%
DUBLIN..............59268........53517.....138........87%
KNOCK.....................0..........3305
SHANNON.............3106........4712.......58........80%
WATERFORD.........1022........2361........28.......57%
FLORENCE.................0........5227
MILAN MXP...........9648........9144.......78....... 88%
ROME (FCO)..........8472......11162......163.......86% - fewer flights
TRIESTE....................0........2595
VENICE................6921.........5859.....157.......82%
KAUNAS...............2819........3205......176.......93%
MALTA.................3511........2725
AMSTERDAM........52024.......45256.....97........ 86%
ISLAMABAD...........5799........6627....223........ 65%
BYDGOSZCZ..........4617.........5108...178.........94%
GDANSK................3189........3236....177........94%
KATOWICE............3199........2875....178........ 94%
KRAKOW...............3229........3282....179........ 95%
FARO..................21770......21650....176........ 87%
OPORTO....................0.........2585
FUNCHAL...............3232........2532...180.........86%
BRATISLAVA..........4670........5054....180........95%
ALICANTE............26279......31867....189........ 93%
ALMERIA....................0........4487
BARCELONA..........25429......17132....167........89% more flights
IBIZA....................8832......13270....167........87%
MADRID.................4375............0....168........90% Fantastic
MAHON.................6649........5469....175........83%
MALAGA..............35038....... 28777...180........ 90%
MURCIA................6099.........5862...179........ 95%
PALMA................23893....... 27554...185........ 91%
REUS........................0.........2357
ARRECIFE............15255.......13819
FUERTEVENTURA..10697.........8110
LAS PALMAS........10172.........7258
TENERIFE............19822.......21043
GOTEBORG................0 ..........1350
ZURICH...............8655...........9039....80........ 82% fewer flights
BODRUM..............4233............4517...151....... 83%
DALAMAN...........10390...........8972....168....... 86% like for like
ISTANBUL..........12252...........9950....116.......74% two extra flights a week
ASHKHABAD.........3074...........4254....118.......60% fewer flights
DUBAI...............45816..........42321....369.......86%
NEW YORK JFK.....7219.................0....120.......68%
NEW YORK EWR....8108............8350....131......77%
Domestic
Route................ 2015............2014....Avg Pax....%
ABERDEEN..........10878..........12549.......61.......78% fewer flights
Belfast City........25270..........24744.......69.......85%
Belfast Int.........11629...........12541.....145.......93% fewer flights
CITY OF DERRY.........0............5132
EDINBURGH........23277...........25851...... 63........76% - 7 cancellations
GLASGOW..........20370...........21832......57........71% - 5 cancellations
INVERNESS..........4304.............4741......69........89% fewer flights
ISLE OF MAN.......3973.............4143......57.........73%
GUERNSEY..........2966..............1970......see Jersey
JERSEY..............7932..............6817......60.........7 1% extra flights
NEWCASTLE.........672...............684..... 11.........58% - just guesswork
NEWQUAY...........4019.............3964.....65.........83%
Pete
Average passengers per flight - own records, libhomeradar and a BHX Bl*g
Some routes have IT pax included and have not been calculated such the Canary Isles destinations, Malta and Dubrovnik.
Not a lot to say other than a good month. I suppose you would have expected the Air India and American to show higher figures for the month of July but United only lost a few hundred pax with AA starting.
Route.................2015.........2014.....Avg.........%
BRUSSELS..........13533........9652.......70........79%
TORONTO............3167........3134......317.......93%
DUBROVNIK..........5260........5060
SPLIT......................0........4031
LARNACA.............8822........8705......192.......96%
PAPHOS..............4840........3373.......186......90%
COPENHAGEN.......3941........6106........73.......81% Fewer flights
HURGHADA...............0........1400
SHARM EL S........6991........5262.......194.......91%
AVIGNON..............818......... 512........68.......77%
BASTIA...............515..............0........64.......73%
BERGERAC.......... 2110.........1518.......75.......86%
BIARRITZ.............609..............0.......76........81%
BORDEAUX..........2665.........2545.......74........84%
BREST.................784.........1126.......65 ........74%
DEAUVILLE..........1042.............0.......40.........50%
LA ROCHELLE.......1133.........758........57........ 68%
LYON.................4677.........4371.......75........86%
NICE..................4740........5504......139........ 84%
PARIS (CDG)......40008.......36281.....118........87% - very high
PERPIGNAN......... 2743.........3076.....171........ 91%
TOULOUSE...............0.........3814.
BERLIN (TEGEL)....4171.........3622......67.........76%
COLOGNE.................0.........2757
DUSSELDORF......19655.......16956......58.........65%
FRANKFURT........32580.......30042.....131........79%
HAMBURG............3164.........3228......59.........68%
HANOVER........... .3761........ 6103......59.........75%
MUNICH.............17460.......16593.....103.........84%
STUTTGART.........7017.........7138......65.........75%
GIBRALTAR...........3892.........4149.....150........86%
ATHENS...............2814.........2428.....156........89%
HERAKLION...........2603.........2521.....145........82%
PREVEZA..............1482..............0.....185........87%
KEFLAVIK.............2315.........1604......129.......68%
AMRITSAR............4370..............0..see Delhi
DELHI ..................6110........5984......169........66%
CORK...................7026........6663.......61........84%
DUBLIN..............59268........53517.....138........87%
KNOCK.....................0..........3305
SHANNON.............3106........4712.......58........80%
WATERFORD.........1022........2361........28.......57%
FLORENCE.................0........5227
MILAN MXP...........9648........9144.......78....... 88%
ROME (FCO)..........8472......11162......163.......86% - fewer flights
TRIESTE....................0........2595
VENICE................6921.........5859.....157.......82%
KAUNAS...............2819........3205......176.......93%
MALTA.................3511........2725
AMSTERDAM........52024.......45256.....97........ 86%
ISLAMABAD...........5799........6627....223........ 65%
BYDGOSZCZ..........4617.........5108...178.........94%
GDANSK................3189........3236....177........94%
KATOWICE............3199........2875....178........ 94%
KRAKOW...............3229........3282....179........ 95%
FARO..................21770......21650....176........ 87%
OPORTO....................0.........2585
FUNCHAL...............3232........2532...180.........86%
BRATISLAVA..........4670........5054....180........95%
ALICANTE............26279......31867....189........ 93%
ALMERIA....................0........4487
BARCELONA..........25429......17132....167........89% more flights
IBIZA....................8832......13270....167........87%
MADRID.................4375............0....168........90% Fantastic
MAHON.................6649........5469....175........83%
MALAGA..............35038....... 28777...180........ 90%
MURCIA................6099.........5862...179........ 95%
PALMA................23893....... 27554...185........ 91%
REUS........................0.........2357
ARRECIFE............15255.......13819
FUERTEVENTURA..10697.........8110
LAS PALMAS........10172.........7258
TENERIFE............19822.......21043
GOTEBORG................0 ..........1350
ZURICH...............8655...........9039....80........ 82% fewer flights
BODRUM..............4233............4517...151....... 83%
DALAMAN...........10390...........8972....168....... 86% like for like
ISTANBUL..........12252...........9950....116.......74% two extra flights a week
ASHKHABAD.........3074...........4254....118.......60% fewer flights
DUBAI...............45816..........42321....369.......86%
NEW YORK JFK.....7219.................0....120.......68%
NEW YORK EWR....8108............8350....131......77%
Domestic
Route................ 2015............2014....Avg Pax....%
ABERDEEN..........10878..........12549.......61.......78% fewer flights
Belfast City........25270..........24744.......69.......85%
Belfast Int.........11629...........12541.....145.......93% fewer flights
CITY OF DERRY.........0............5132
EDINBURGH........23277...........25851...... 63........76% - 7 cancellations
GLASGOW..........20370...........21832......57........71% - 5 cancellations
INVERNESS..........4304.............4741......69........89% fewer flights
ISLE OF MAN.......3973.............4143......57.........73%
GUERNSEY..........2966..............1970......see Jersey
JERSEY..............7932..............6817......60.........7 1% extra flights
NEWCASTLE.........672...............684..... 11.........58% - just guesswork
NEWQUAY...........4019.............3964.....65.........83%
Pete
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Forgive me if I am wrong, but 66% LF on long haul is not good and would be a worry (Air India). 68% for AA in July is also not great. August could be a more telling month with the kids off though.
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All depends on yield management really. You can make a loss with 95% LF and you can equally make a profit with a 55% LF. Load factor alone is not indicative of profit or loss.
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Long-haul
eggc
Leaving yield aside as I doubt few on here (me included) will have a true insight into this area, I would say 66% is low compared to some routes and airlines flying east and west but as the one airline we are discussing is Air India then some would say politics plays more a part than yield.
One thing to note is that part of July is still classed as the low season (Monsoons) and August will show very different figures. Although the service is only two years old there are very distinct patterns with the load factors - May and June bad, July poor and the rest usually good.
As for the American, I would say than 68% is very disappointing compared with other UK-US flights but without yield data it is difficult to know what the future holds for this one. Not sure if something has changed with the US market as both Manchester ATL and PHL two years ago were over 13000 in July but both low to mid 70's this year (assuming all flights operated). Of course Thomas Cook have entered the MAN-US fray and that might have distorted matters but the point is load factors are well below what they have been in the past and there are other examples.
BHX-JFK saw high fares in July and August (not usual of course) but the more worrying figure was May when fares were much lower.
Pete
Leaving yield aside as I doubt few on here (me included) will have a true insight into this area, I would say 66% is low compared to some routes and airlines flying east and west but as the one airline we are discussing is Air India then some would say politics plays more a part than yield.
One thing to note is that part of July is still classed as the low season (Monsoons) and August will show very different figures. Although the service is only two years old there are very distinct patterns with the load factors - May and June bad, July poor and the rest usually good.
As for the American, I would say than 68% is very disappointing compared with other UK-US flights but without yield data it is difficult to know what the future holds for this one. Not sure if something has changed with the US market as both Manchester ATL and PHL two years ago were over 13000 in July but both low to mid 70's this year (assuming all flights operated). Of course Thomas Cook have entered the MAN-US fray and that might have distorted matters but the point is load factors are well below what they have been in the past and there are other examples.
BHX-JFK saw high fares in July and August (not usual of course) but the more worrying figure was May when fares were much lower.
Pete
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PHL has not been the same since AstraZeneca moved their
R&D to Cambridge
R&D to Cambridge
BHX to USA
Looking at the raw passenger numbers, it is admirable that AA are intending to stick with BHX/JFK through the winter.
Looking at the seat maps on the AA website the pattern looks clear; good sales in the cheap seats, poor uptake in the premium economy seats, and poor take up in business. Of course it is holiday time on both side of the atlantic, so perhaps the low business take up is perhaps understandable, and the proof of that pudding will be September / October.
Taking both UA and AA into consideration, you could conclude that regional flying to the USA, that is apart from MAN and EDI, just isn't viable at any significant capacity, I guess partly because people would rather drive to LHR / MAN and take a direct flight to the final destination, than fly from the local airport and hub in JFK or EWR, especially as there is no real cost saving to be made. I hope my analysis is flawed, and that BHX (and NCL) keep their UA / AA services into 2016 and beyond.
For whatever reason the same logic doesn't apply to passengers heading east, and however much kudos is gained from chasing direct USA services, the concentration of marketing efforts ought to be more towards the (until the last few months) developing markets in Asia.
Looking at the seat maps on the AA website the pattern looks clear; good sales in the cheap seats, poor uptake in the premium economy seats, and poor take up in business. Of course it is holiday time on both side of the atlantic, so perhaps the low business take up is perhaps understandable, and the proof of that pudding will be September / October.
Taking both UA and AA into consideration, you could conclude that regional flying to the USA, that is apart from MAN and EDI, just isn't viable at any significant capacity, I guess partly because people would rather drive to LHR / MAN and take a direct flight to the final destination, than fly from the local airport and hub in JFK or EWR, especially as there is no real cost saving to be made. I hope my analysis is flawed, and that BHX (and NCL) keep their UA / AA services into 2016 and beyond.
For whatever reason the same logic doesn't apply to passengers heading east, and however much kudos is gained from chasing direct USA services, the concentration of marketing efforts ought to be more towards the (until the last few months) developing markets in Asia.
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AA
All airlines and other travel system swill have certain targets for new routes with expected growth patterns, it is pure guess work if the AA has achieved the goals that have been set by the airline.
Centre cities
Centre cities
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UK-USA
Ian Brooks
I did know about that but not the date it happened or how many seats they used/paid per flight. The Figures for July 2013 were 13692, July 14 11136 and 2015 11423. This would suggest somewhere between July 13 & 14 although is this just down to CLT operating in 2014 and diverting connecting pax from one hub to another?
Expanding it further looking at EDI and GLA it does seem in general that in 2013 load factors were just higher all around but of course a lot has changed in that time with oil prices and some routes have come and gone and this is what I am getting at, has there been a sea-change with routes across the pond where the days of fill it at all costs have gone?
SBR has indicated Virgin/Delta are happy with Atlanta due to reduced costs (as discussed on MAN thread) but the fact is a few years ago an A332 or A333 would not have been flying around in July with 25% of its seats empty and a 757 with a third of its seats empty.
I guess we will find out the answers soon enough well at least with BHX-JFK as AA are not afraid to change things quickly.
ATNotts - I am still getting error messages on the AA seat-map. In general I would say with United it always seems to be PE the last to fill rather than business.
Pete
I did know about that but not the date it happened or how many seats they used/paid per flight. The Figures for July 2013 were 13692, July 14 11136 and 2015 11423. This would suggest somewhere between July 13 & 14 although is this just down to CLT operating in 2014 and diverting connecting pax from one hub to another?
Expanding it further looking at EDI and GLA it does seem in general that in 2013 load factors were just higher all around but of course a lot has changed in that time with oil prices and some routes have come and gone and this is what I am getting at, has there been a sea-change with routes across the pond where the days of fill it at all costs have gone?
SBR has indicated Virgin/Delta are happy with Atlanta due to reduced costs (as discussed on MAN thread) but the fact is a few years ago an A332 or A333 would not have been flying around in July with 25% of its seats empty and a 757 with a third of its seats empty.
I guess we will find out the answers soon enough well at least with BHX-JFK as AA are not afraid to change things quickly.
ATNotts - I am still getting error messages on the AA seat-map. In general I would say with United it always seems to be PE the last to fill rather than business.
Pete
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Mid/long Haul
Whilst long haul is being discussed, just an indication as to how things have developed at BHX, unless I am mistaken there were 5 x 777, 2 788 and 2 x757 mid long haul today.
I bet BHX would have snatched your hand off for that a few years ago.
Centre cities
I bet BHX would have snatched your hand off for that a few years ago.
Centre cities
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Sunday & Winter
Centre cities
Correct - three Emirates two class 77W's no doubt due inbound loads, Turkmenistan 77L and the PIA was a 77W - nearly 4000 seats.
Aegean have upgraded to the 321 again as well tonight but still disappointing that it is ending earlier this end. Still as one goes (hopefully briefly) another arrives with Wizz just two weeks away tomorrow.
Winter 2015/6
Wednesday Enfidha by Thomson has been replaced with Fuerteventura making it twice weekly, as last winter's Wednesday flight had already been moved to Saturday. This in itself poses a question as Saturday's from mid December sees four based short-haul aircraft with the new Verona ski flight, the Salzburg out all day again, which makes the schedule impossible to be operated by two 757's and one 737.
Is the 787 operating cruise flights on a Saturday (Friday and Saturday are non-Thomson days)?
Pete
Correct - three Emirates two class 77W's no doubt due inbound loads, Turkmenistan 77L and the PIA was a 77W - nearly 4000 seats.
Aegean have upgraded to the 321 again as well tonight but still disappointing that it is ending earlier this end. Still as one goes (hopefully briefly) another arrives with Wizz just two weeks away tomorrow.
Winter 2015/6
Wednesday Enfidha by Thomson has been replaced with Fuerteventura making it twice weekly, as last winter's Wednesday flight had already been moved to Saturday. This in itself poses a question as Saturday's from mid December sees four based short-haul aircraft with the new Verona ski flight, the Salzburg out all day again, which makes the schedule impossible to be operated by two 757's and one 737.
Is the 787 operating cruise flights on a Saturday (Friday and Saturday are non-Thomson days)?
Pete
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Tom bhx.
Pete,
No Winter schedule as yet, perhaps another 4 weeks or so before we get it.
With regard to the Winter Saturday schedule , my guess would be that the Salzburg comes back before lunch and then that aircraft goes to Fuerteventura.
The new Verona then being a W pattern. There is no talk of using the 787 on Winter short haul. This is if course only an opinion . Positioning in an aircraft just to do a couple of flights on a Saturday does not make sense , positioning costs money. Who knows???
No Winter schedule as yet, perhaps another 4 weeks or so before we get it.
With regard to the Winter Saturday schedule , my guess would be that the Salzburg comes back before lunch and then that aircraft goes to Fuerteventura.
The new Verona then being a W pattern. There is no talk of using the 787 on Winter short haul. This is if course only an opinion . Positioning in an aircraft just to do a couple of flights on a Saturday does not make sense , positioning costs money. Who knows???
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Thomson
oceanhawk
Thank you for the information.
Apparently the Salzburg has been timed at a straight return and it was only yesterday I noticed the on-line brochure showing it out at 0600 and back at tea-time.
I was told the 787 has a full schedule from BHX this winter from the third week in December but getting hold of the non-Thomson cruise flight schedule has proved difficult.
Is there any hint about the operator of aircraft 7 next summer (if it is still happening) as it is still showing as TBA online. There have been hints at Germania and even the Norwegian.
Pete
Thank you for the information.
Apparently the Salzburg has been timed at a straight return and it was only yesterday I noticed the on-line brochure showing it out at 0600 and back at tea-time.
I was told the 787 has a full schedule from BHX this winter from the third week in December but getting hold of the non-Thomson cruise flight schedule has proved difficult.
Is there any hint about the operator of aircraft 7 next summer (if it is still happening) as it is still showing as TBA online. There have been hints at Germania and even the Norwegian.
Pete
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Thomson
Pete,
I largely ignore the on line brochure information. One year a family member booked a skiing holiday in the Autumn for the forthcoming ski season at a Thomson shop and was given incorrect flight times by the agent. She informed him the Salzburg flight returned at lunchtime on the Saturday despite our crew timetable showing a W pattern through Stansted.The agent was having none of it at the time of booking. The crews will appreciate not having to position to Stansted.
I think the 787 has a full line of flying at BHX this winter, that may include a days downtime for maintenance .
I am fairly certain no extra aircraft for us next summer as a pilot bid has just been run. The company are keen on expansion using third party airlines as you have mentioned and want the in house lift capacity to be about 75/80 .% ish That means using other airlines to do the extra work / expansion. This is tour operator business and we are not informed about it. Remember Thomson Airways only provides lift capacity for the tour operator.
I largely ignore the on line brochure information. One year a family member booked a skiing holiday in the Autumn for the forthcoming ski season at a Thomson shop and was given incorrect flight times by the agent. She informed him the Salzburg flight returned at lunchtime on the Saturday despite our crew timetable showing a W pattern through Stansted.The agent was having none of it at the time of booking. The crews will appreciate not having to position to Stansted.
I think the 787 has a full line of flying at BHX this winter, that may include a days downtime for maintenance .
I am fairly certain no extra aircraft for us next summer as a pilot bid has just been run. The company are keen on expansion using third party airlines as you have mentioned and want the in house lift capacity to be about 75/80 .% ish That means using other airlines to do the extra work / expansion. This is tour operator business and we are not informed about it. Remember Thomson Airways only provides lift capacity for the tour operator.
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Norwegian v Ryanair
Buster the Bear
Is that from an article or confidential source?
Ryanair v Norwegian
Seemlessly moving on it seems the bun fight continues next summer with Ryanair upping the ante by the look of it - Barcelona from 5/6 a week to 9 with double daily on a Tuesday and Saturday.
Malaga - up from daily to nine a week although the two flights with different flight numbers at exactly the same times on a Thursday look odd.
Malta also increased to three a week, Palma daily throughout and the winter increases on Dublin are retained for the time being.
Up between one and six flights a day depending on the day and month.
As they say..........Over to you Norwegian.
Pete
Is that from an article or confidential source?
Ryanair v Norwegian
Seemlessly moving on it seems the bun fight continues next summer with Ryanair upping the ante by the look of it - Barcelona from 5/6 a week to 9 with double daily on a Tuesday and Saturday.
Malaga - up from daily to nine a week although the two flights with different flight numbers at exactly the same times on a Thursday look odd.
Malta also increased to three a week, Palma daily throughout and the winter increases on Dublin are retained for the time being.
Up between one and six flights a day depending on the day and month.
As they say..........Over to you Norwegian.
Pete
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Thomson at Birmingham
Interestng article about Thomson Airways at Anna.aero Thomson Airways planning over 20 new routes for S16
Good to see Birmingham having the third largest number of weekly departures despite being in such close proximity to EMA, and BRS, MAN and LTN not too far away. Birmingham will be getting 5 "new" routes for summer 2016. Agadir, Alghero, Izmir, Puna Cana and Split not sure Izmir is new for TOM?
Winter 2015/6 Thomson will add a new ski flight to Verona and the 787 will be based all week.
Daza
Good to see Birmingham having the third largest number of weekly departures despite being in such close proximity to EMA, and BRS, MAN and LTN not too far away. Birmingham will be getting 5 "new" routes for summer 2016. Agadir, Alghero, Izmir, Puna Cana and Split not sure Izmir is new for TOM?
Winter 2015/6 Thomson will add a new ski flight to Verona and the 787 will be based all week.
Daza