BIRMINGHAM - 6

[crewmeal]

What posters are saying with EK is that MAN freight is being trucked to BHX and BHX freight is being trucked to NCL......

Probably looks good on paper for BHX figures. Whereas if freight went from MAN - NCL then BHX would miss out altogether. Beancounters at work

[nigel osborne]

Airfrance7

Thanks for the info on the EK 77F order as I wasn't aware, not sure when they are due, but that might make one available for MAN depending on EKs freight priorities around the World.

Ringwayman,

Yes an A350-900 would be ideal for BHX expansion.

Chaps2011

The big problem with the A380-800 was its lack of cargo space, and wonder as the recession seems to be ending whether EK will be a launch customer of the streched A380-900 if it ever materialises.

Nigel

[chaps2011]

Just been reading that MAN EK load factor for last couple of weeks and through
Sept are in region of 97% even with extra A380 sheduled and EY and QR not far off so one presumes BHX figures should be good also

Chaps

[chaps2011]

EK figures for BHX down 10% to 34925 in July whilst all other airport well
up, very strange

Chaps

[j636]

passengers in July down 13.2%. Surly this is not right. Will have to see when they update in the afternoon to see if routes are missing.

[Planeaddict]

It says on the BHX Flight Guide that the number of passengers in July were in fact 1,005,096 - an increase of 2.9% on 2012.

Only the second time that there have been a million passengers in a month, since 2009.

[BHX5DME]

1,005,896 up 2.9%

[GayFriendly]

EK

EK figures for BHX down 10% to 34925 in July whilst all other airport well up, very strange

Haven't seen other airport EK figures but if true another sign that BHX is being squeezed between LHR and MAN that have both seen and continue to see such big capacity increases for EK and other Mid East carriers. TK going to 10 weekly can't be helping either.

As said before cargo does very well at BHX for EK so perhaps this keeps the route profitable - some time ago am sure someone on here quoted with authority (or as much authority as a rumour network allows!) that EK BHX is one of their most profitable UK routes?

[groundhogbhx]

It was in the top 4 most profitable in the entire network.

[Ringwayman]

I think most people would be interested to see the top 10 profitable routes for EK as I am struggling to see how BHX can be that high!?

MAN was quoted as more profitable than LGW when they said A380 ops were to start at MAN. No reference made to BHX but somehow I don't think they'd be ignoring this "gold mine" by not giving this route a 1st Class cabin and/or granting it a 3rd daily frequency?

Are we really to believe the UK fills the top 4 most profitable routes for them?

[Skipness One Echo]

It was in the top 4 most profitable in the entire network.

He said "was". I suspect it's being badly squeezed as capacity is funneled to LHR/MAN.

[hammerb32]

Would point out that business class from BHX is full on most flights now.

[ATNotts]

It was in the top 4 most profitable in the entire network

If DXB-BHX is still in the top 4 profitable routes for EK, then I suspect that the hidden gem may well be the cargo. Depends I suppose whether the EK bean counters merge the figures, or treat them as separate proft centres - then, perhaps BHX is 4th most profitable for cargo?

One thing is certain, there are "lies, darned lies, and statistics"!

[Skipness One Echo]

One thing is certain, there are "lies, darned lies, and statistics"!

Speaking as someone who you'd no doubt describe as a "bean counter", can I just disagree with this (again). Statistics can be manipulated but will only fool the ignorant. Any educated individual working on matters like this knows how to see past the silliness. There are times when structural matters within an organisation create grey areas along the lines of revenue attribution and profitability, however most people dealing with these are wise enough to know when smoke and mirrors are being used for wilful distortion.

For the record, no one actually counts beans, in the same way Doctors no longer saw bones.

Would point out that business class from BHX is full on most flights now.

We cannot be seeing such a dive in volume with profitability being maintained, due to the recession, full fare business class yields are still weak so they're not likely to be over-pulling their weight in this case. Some bubbles burst remember, I used to fly STN-PIK on Ryanair when they were ten a day. We all thought that would last forever too! BHX just seems to be unloved at the minute, with GLA hearing whispers of getting the A380 and MAN going double daily on the big bus. There's only so much segmentation the UK market can take.

[VickersVicount]

Doctors do still saw bones as far as im aware, albeit with electric saws but that is very much OT and not a particularly helpful analogy

[ATNotts]

There are times when structural matters within an organisation create grey areas along the lines of revenue attribution and profitability, however most people dealing with these are wise enough to know when smoke and mirrors are being used for wilful distortion.

Skipness

I would absolutely agree, and that was really my point. All organisations, whether commercial or political produce statistics, or manipulate figure in the public domain to suit their own case. For this reason, I find programmes such as "More or Less" (BBC R4) particularly enlightening.

I wouldn't say that BHX is "unloved", the initial success of the new (revived) AI operation, growth of TK, imminent arrival of Air Blue to the market suggest otherwise, but we have to face reality - the West Midlands economy ain't great at the moment, and the lure of a ride on the A380 must be taking passengers away from BHX towards MAN, though why anyone would want to use LHR as an alternative to BHX is beyond me (actually why anyone would want to use LHR at all, unless their origin / destination is close to it amazes me more).

[nigel osborne]

Skipness one echo,

You cannot make such assumptions without being inside Emirates who are the only people that have the figures on yield !

So a 10% drop in total passengers , doesn't mean its making less money,if you have the business section full of business men paying full fares up front.

Nigel

[Guest 112233]

Nigel

With respect a 10 % drop in pax, month on month if its true, on a mature route, indicates a serious problem. If it persists. (very roughly 3,500 a month or a approx 111 per day over 4 services 2 in 2 out ) means that there's a potentially big drop in demand - How do the stats hold up for the same month last year.

I do not work in the industry, but even allowing for Rmadan ocuring in July, a sudden drop in demand; out of the blue, equals trouble.

I know unused airline seats are worthless.

CAT III

[Skipness One Echo]

Nigel you're right however there's little to support the necessary uplift in business fares given the increased competitive environment. I meant unloved by Emirates, perhaps not intentionally but focus is seemingly elsewhere? We shall see.

Of course Doctors saw bones, I'm being blonde again. Apologies.

[nigel osborne]

CAT111NDB.

Your not following the BHX EK passenger figures I assume then as the previous 2 months both saw fairly good increases on 2012 May and June.

If the July drop continues( I have yet to see the July 2013 figures, but assume reports are correct) in each of the next 4 months then I will agree with you.

Nigel