BIRMINGHAM - 6

[Evanelpus]

Seriously, can BHX sustain 3 x EK flights a day?

Put it another way, can EK justify operating 3 x a day to BHX?

[chinapattern]

Seriously, can BHX sustain 3 x EK flights a day?

With load factors hitting the 90s, business class selling out plus the extra cargo that could be carried I'd say the answer is a definitive yes - even the retimed AM arrival/departure during the DXB runway works didn't effect anything so obviously there is demand for an early morning departure.

[getonittt]

Evanelpus : I'll go easy on you as I guess others on here won't .As chinapattern has said both existing flights have at times been packed with both Pax and belly cargo . ppruners on here have said time and again that something has to be done , either an A380 upgrade on EK37/8 or a 3rd daily flight . thankfully it seems to be the latter and this will connect to a large bank of departures from DXB between 21.00 and 22.30 which include Delhi,Bangalore ,Mumbai ,Hyderabad , Lahore , Perth, SIN, & KUL.

[Fried_Chicken]

If Emirates do go 3x daily, will that be the nail in the coffin for any Qatar flight or will it make them sit up and take notice?

FC

[chinapattern]

If Emirates do go 3x daily, will that be the nail in the coffin for any Qatar flight or will it make them sit up and take notice?

I'd say final nail for the short/medium term - personally I think they missed the golden opportunity to launch BHX when they opened ATQ.

[bhx bod]

Air India

A number of flights this month and January are already fully booked including 4th January which is one of the new flights.
The flight on Xmas day is also full.
10million pax at some point in 2015 is definitely on the cards the way things are going.

[hammerb32]

Evaneplus - some more albeit anecdotal perspective, my brother in law travels to Dubai twice a month for his job, because he tried much harder than I at school he gets to go business class. In the last year he's been 'bumped' 7 times to other airports because business class from BHX was over subscribed. As I say it is anecdotal but gives you a feel the business end demand on the service.

[OltonPete]

October International route analysis

Monthly figures provided by the CAA, average per flight this month has been estimated and was difficult due the summer running into winter with call-sign changes when checking libhomeradar. Also Monarch decreased some routes in week 2 & 3 before putting them back to peak summer levels for the half-term holiday so treat any route Monarch operate with caution.

Pakistan went from one of the highest monthly figures (2013) to one of the lowest but did average nearly 80%.

Air India was very low, although 350-400 less pax can be explained by one less rotaion due to the days of operation and Turkmenistan was up 1300 pax.

Emirates & United were good and Turkish operated one few flight due to the days of operation of the second flight and was still up.

2013 in brackets

Brussels........10950 (9589).....44 per flight..53% load factor quite surprised at the change from September
Dubrovnik.......2998 (2703).... 167 pax........80%
Split..............1227 (554)......123 pax.........71% no real argument with ZB dropping this for 2015
Larnaca..........5501 (7143).....172 pax........81%
Paphos.......... 3113 (4152).....173 pax........81%
Copenhagen... 9433 (7172).......87 pax........70%
Bordeaux.........2134 (nil)..........63 pax....... 71%
Lyons.............3820 (2797).......71 pax........80%
Nice...............2466 (2581)......123 pax.......68%
Paris CDG......33302 (30758)......99 pax........87%
Toulouse.........3198 (690)........59 pax.........76%
Berlin TXL.........659 (4670).......66 pax.........75% Interesting a few flights and 75%!!!!!
Cologne..........2914 (nil)......... 47 pax.........60%
Dusseldorf.....17945 (17748)... .52 pax.........60%
Frankfurt.......26725 (24744).. 113 pax.........71%
Hamburg.........3338 (2435)... ..60 pax.........67%
Hanover..........6516 (3825)... ..60 pax.........69%
Munich..........15722 (14486).. .94 pax.........77%
Stuttgart........6192 (4056).... .57 pax.........65%
Gibraltar..........3747 (3231))....144 pax........83%
Athens.............940 (nil).......118 pax.........70%
Heraklion.........2681 (2809)....149 pax.........70%
Cork...............6271 (6268)......51 pax.........70%
Knock.............2740 (1966)......44 pax.........57%
Dublin............62173 (49799)..128 pax.........78%
Shannon..........4137 (2670).....35 pax.........65%
Waterford........1900 (1779).....6o pax.........76%
Florence..........3376 (nil)........68 pax.........76%
Milan MXP........6764 (4004).....66 pax........70%
Rome FCO........7642 (8612)....173 pax........84%
Trieste.............1296 (1717)....93 pax.........49%
Venice.............3372 (4829)...130 pax.........64%
Malta..............3249 (2725)....181 pax.........96% A few KM pax included???? aside based on just FR
Amsterdam.....44829 (39060).....88 pax....... .80%
Faro............. 19310 (17305)..166pax..........83%
Oporto...........2475 (nil)..........62 pax..........62%
Funchel..........3116 (2231).....173 pax..........84%
Alicante........31429 (25011)..,167 pax........93%
Almeria...........3195 (2957)....178 pax.........83%
Barcelona.......18006 (10192)..155 pax........77%
Ibiza...............3948 (4128)...132 pax........65%
Mahon............3008 (3621)......178 pax.......78%
Malaga..........22527 (25404)...168 pax........84%
Murcia...........5390 (5175).....168 pax........89%
Palma...........18885 (18356)...138 pax........78%
Reus..............2555 (3681).....148 pax...... 78%
Arrecife........15867 () incorrect split shown between schedule & IT
Fuerteventura 8986 () incorrect split shown between schedule & IT
Las Palmas.....7427 (7637)...169 pax..........87%
Tenerife........21828 () incorrect split shown between schedule & IT
Gothenburg....1452 (1321).....27 pax.........73% based on the 135
Reykjavik........165 (o)..........41 pax.........47% A couple of flights after a 6 week lay-off
Oslo................391 (nil).......49 pax..........56%
Zurich...........8575 (8199).....70 pax.........71%
Bodrum.........3619 (2450)....164 pax.........77%
Dalaman........8176 (9413)...136 pax..........67% over capacity or I have estimated incorrectly?
Istanbul......10516 (10358)...120 pax.........77%
Kaunas.........2649 (2905)....147 pax.........78%
Bydgoscz......4554 (4770)....175 pax.........93%
Gdansk.........1702 (2882)....170 pax.........90%
Katowice......3236 (4045).....180 pax........95%
Krakow.........3081 (2860)....171 pax.........91%
Bratislava.....3148 (4686).....175 pax.........93%
Hurghada......1745 (0).........175 pax.........82%
Sharm.........3669 (4896).....,184 pax.........86%
Ashkhabad....5164 (3877)....145 pax.........75%
Dubai..........45130 (43000)...363 pax........86%
Delhi............6060 (7050).....178 pax..........70% 34 flights compared to 36 but still well down
Islamabad....5541 (9280)......277 pax.........78% one of the best months to one of the worst
Toronto........810 (943).......202 pax.........84%
Newark........8428 (8073)....156 pax...........92%

Emirates

Question asked: Seriously, can BHX sustain 3 x EK flights a day?

Depends on how Emirates go about it. An increase to another two class 428 seat 77W would be a tough ask without adjusting capacity elsewhere and May to mid July would certainly be interesting with the low season and Ramadan virtually joining up next year. I suppose a three class 77W is one way and try and sell first or do what they did with EK37/8 and leave it for business upgrades. The A332 would be ideal but they are a rare bird in Europe in EK colours and I think non-existent in Western Europe now.

[bhx bod - Good to hear re AI as the last two months have been average.

Pete

[nigel osborne]

BHX will probably continue to mirror MANs EK expansion.

So 3rd daily with the lunch going 3 class , with 1st class suites.

This also reduces the number of economy seats that would need to be filled on a 2 class. Can they fill 1st class though..fingers crossed.

Time will tell.


Nigel

[All names taken]

Just reading the last few posts, it's not clear whether or not EK are going for the third daily. Is it still just conjecture?

[OltonPete]

EK/KLM/LH/SK

All names taken

Just rumour

KLM

Back to five daily in summer and to all mainline Sunday - Friday with exception to high season. Four x 737-700 and 1 x 738. Again an increase on 2014.

The only 190 scheduled is KL1425/6 on a Saturday and KL1421/2 high season.

Lufthansa

Still showing a daily A321 on LH956/7 with 2 x A320's and 1 x A319.

Air France

AF1064/5 the lunchtime flight now shows as the A320. Not an increase in seats as yet as AF1164/5 is an A320 in the week and AF1064/5 on a Sunday plus of course if the 195 is pulled by flybe then another loss of seats.

SAS

SK2533/4 the morning service still showing an upgrade to the A319.

Ryanair

As promised they have increased Barcelona to 6 weekly all summer. Despite the base dropping to three outside of August I would say only one flight a day less most days due to the away based flying.

Monarch

Still fiddling with the high summer schedule with a high season night Palma switching to Malaga. There was original two then it went to two night Palma's now back to one. Still looking like 8 based with one or two adjustments and still no Almeria.

Flybe - Hopefully Tuesday will bring some answers.

Pete

[nigel osborne]

All names taken..

hmm.. think its a bit more than conjecture...


Nigel

[OltonPete]

Icelandair

Showing 4 a week from 23/10/2015.

With American bookable the same dates now there will be plenty of choice to the States next winter. United loads this month and last have been good.

Pete

[LAX_LHR]

Icelandair increases are for half term only. Back to 2 weekly in November.

[OltonPete]

Icelandair & American

LAX_LHR

I only have access to Amadeus and the FI is only showing two weekly in November as you say and the AA JFK not at all after the first few days do you know anything different as we were lead to believe it wasn't seasonable.

Pete

[111KAB]

OltonPete/Monarch

On the Monarch Facebook page they have today announced they will not be operating Birmingham > Almeria in 2015

[LAX_LHR]

Olton Pete,


Icelandair increases do seem to be just for 3 weeks surrounding October half term. They have increased GLA to 5 weekly, MAN to 4 weekly and LGW to 8 weekly for, so far, the full bookable winter period. Therefore quite surprising the BHX is only a temporary increase, but, as its a new route, maybe they are being cautious, as the USA (no doubt their primary market) has never been a strong point at BHX.


As for AA, when initially rumoured, the talk around the office was a seasonal flight, so, was surprised when it was announced as year round. AA do however, only take bookings 330 days in advance, so, even MAN only has the finnair codeshare on MAN-JFK available to book oats the 330 day period.


Therefore, there will be a short wait for the flights past November to be bookable.

[OltonPete]

Monarch/AA/FI

111KAB

No surprise if 8 based but on the other hand they only increased it last year. The clue was that Thomson offered it and then quickly changed it to their own aircraft except they didn't have a spare slot at BHX during the summer 15 schedule and it was withdrawn completely.

LAX_LHR

Cheers for that, maybe 4 a week in winter was a little surprising although andectol evidence is that New York was booking well via KEF but that was before AA announced and of course winter is a wholly different ball game.

United up to the last day or so seems to have been packed out but the fact they only fly six a week in winter is a bit of an indication that things are marginal in winter but not too dissimilar to other European secondary airports.

Pete

[j636]

AA have no plans at all to operate JFK during the winter currently however BHX gets a longer season than EDI.

Securing the route again in 2015 should be the main focus!

[jon01]

From the Flybe Twitter feed:

'Flybe to launch new routes from Birmingham - Bastia (Corsica) and Biarritz - stating in March 2015'

It looks like these are only one a week services