CARDIFF - 2

[xtypeman]

It is a case of people think that Cardiff should be a major airport but in reality it is at the level that fits. As examples we should draw paralles with airports like EXT and BOH. Cardiff is good as a small regional airport as that is what is supported by the local economy. Forget about the 750,000 leakage to BRS if Cardiff was to offer a few more routes you would only get back a small percentage of the leakage. BRS offers adiversity of routes that Cardiff could not maintain at an economic level down to BRS hinterland and economy. On top of APD for access to the largest density of BRS's hinterland there is the additional hidden tax of the Seven crossing. Dont get me wrong I am a supporter of Cardiff but I am also a realist. Cardiff will expand but at a much slower rate that can be consolidated so that the airlines can at the end of the day make routes economicly viable. It will not happen over night as the UK and Eurozone economys need to stablise and start growing.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "I suspect XTM's tongue was in his cheek, Frank... like the vast majority of us with a Cardiff interest, and with airline experience, I suspect he wrote off that crazy Severnside idea some years back...."

Good to hear it!

Quote: "It is a case of people think that Cardiff should be a major airport but in reality it is at the level that fits. As examples we should draw paralles with airports like EXT and BOH. Cardiff is good as a small regional airport as that is what is supported by the local economy. Forget about the 750,000 leakage to BRS if Cardiff was to offer a few more routes you would only get back a small percentage of the leakage. BRS offers adiversity of routes that Cardiff could not maintain at an economic level down to BRS hinterland and economy. On top of APD for access to the largest density of BRS's hinterland there is the additional hidden tax of the Seven crossing. Dont get me wrong I am a supporter of Cardiff but I am also a realist. Cardiff will expand but at a much slower rate that can be consolidated so that the airlines can at the end of the day make routes economicly viable. It will not happen over night as the UK and Eurozone economys need to stablise and start growing."

In many respects, this description of CWL puts it in the category of most UK airports, a good local airport, and as such, has an important role to play, but becoming a super mega-hub is not one of them, irrespective of what the Welsh executive may believe. Surely its role is to help (as far as it can) CWL to do what it does best.

[TwinAisle]

Most entertaining. Looks like the Esteemed First Minister is cranking up what in Wales counts as a spin machine....

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/busines...91466-32517315

So a pretty average business journo has been pushed to writing some puff?

So we could be talking around £50m, which for a Welsh Government with a budget of £15bn is not really that much at all....

Any thoughts on that gem, Welsh taxpaying friends?

as Mr Jones was right to point out, it will require further investment – potentially several hundred million pounds, for it to become a UK leading regional airports providing routes to key business markets in North America and the Fast East

So we're into the half billion park already. Woo hooo! And STILL not a word on how you are going to attract all these airlines that right now know little and care less about CWL....

With the owner of the airport being the Welsh Government it could support the operator by reducing concessionary charges – the amount per passenger it would charge in rent to run the airport, which in turn would allow the operator to offer more attractive landing fees

Well, well. I think someone needs to do some reading to fully understand the ramifications of using public money to support an airline - which is in effect what we are talking about here. And take it from me, Cardiff's fees are already low - they haven't got far to fall anyway, and it is a really small part of the overall cost equation. More than outweighed by the 'weak market' argument....

There are no shortage of airlines that would fly from Cardiff, providing they are supported; whether via reduced landing fees or a guarantee that its operator and the Welsh Government under writes potential losses in the first few years when launching new routes – particular if Cardiff is to secure carriers to North America and the Middle East.

Quite true. Shame you can't give them the money, or underwrite their losses, without someone in Bristol, or Birmingham starting up the 'cease and desist' orders, eh? Quite rightly too - this is a mad attempt at market distortion.

an easy win in the form of a low-cost carrier like Jet2.com

Of course! Why did no one else think of that?

[MerchantVenturer]

I read that article with incredulity this morning too, TA.

Is Sion Barry to Carwyn Jones what Alastair Campbell was to Tony Blair? Two months ago Mr Barry was telling us that CWL would be at 3 mppa in 2020 and will have overtaken Bristol by 2025.

Cardiff Airport has the potential to grow passengers to three million - Business News - Business - WalesOnline

On Saturday the FM was quoted in the local press saying that the immediate priority was to revamp the terminal building and increase footfall, routes and passenger numbers. That's not rocket science but the 'how' was not explained.

He then turned to his aviation bete noire, Bristol Airport, whose success he says he does not begrudge but which he believes can be matched at CWL within a decade.

Specifically he said, “We have to aim at building ourselves up to the same kind of passenger level as Bristol. I think that’s realistic. It’s not going to be Manchester or Birmingham, but it certainly can aim to be like Bristol or Southampton.”

This is a somewhat confusing message as BRS is currently handling 5.91 mppa and SOU 1.69 mppa: the latter would be a less daunting target. So is the FM really aiming to increase CWL's current throughput of 1.01 mppa to SOU's level or to BRS's?

Or does he think that BRS and SOU are currently handling the same number of passengers, in which case it's another indication that most politicians know little about aviation and should stay out of it.

Of course, if CWL was able to make substantial passenger gains in the next decade it would be because the economic conditions generally had improved a great deal which would almost certainly mean that other airports had also improved, and that CWL's target had become nearer 8 mppa, assuming the FM has made up his mind by then whether he's chasing Bristol or Southampton.

Scots YES vote could leave Wales on its own, warns Carwyn Jones - Politics News - Politics - News - WalesOnline (the reference to the airport is some way down the page)

[xtypeman]

Ah the new year navel watching. TA you know that you can drive a huge wedge through Sion's piece. I wish people who know nothing about aviation just shut up. How many times do we have to tell people that the road connection is a non runner and there is no better example than the airport over the water. A rail link is also a non runner as there is no where near a big enough rail network for Cardiff to link into. Slightly more sense is the proposal for a Cardiff crossrail Tramtrain service that eventually could be extended as a tram link to the airport. But its bum's on seats that you need and for that the FM needs to get the UK and European economys' out of recession. The airport can handle up to 3mpa and only when it gets to 2.75mpa do you need to worry about terminal extension. Runway width eh! Sion get you facts right please.

[mathers_wales_uk]

Air Malta will operate additional flights to Cardiff for Summer 2013. Both flights are currently on sale with Cosmos Holidays.

Tuesday's (Operates 7th May - 22nd Oct)

Cardiff 10:45 Malta 15:00
Malta 07:30 Cardiff 09:55

Friday's (Operates 3rd May - 19th Oct)

Cardiff 23:40 Malta 03:55
Malta 20:30 Cardiff 22:55

Source

[CabinCrewe]

Seems a little harsh, from a normally very reliable source.

[LGS6753]

The Cosmos website is currently showing these flights as KMC flights, so presumably it's not "duff gen".

[caaardiff]

Other Tour Operators using KM are TOM, TCX, Chevron and Holiday Malta, none of which are selling the Friday flight (yet).
The only other UK airports with x2 weekly flights are BHX and EMA, unsure if these are new or had 2 flights each last season.
I'm surprised a relatively new Tour Operator to CWL-MLA has gone from a small shared allocation, to an extra weekly flight. I guess the other specialist MLA Tour Operators will probably come to sell packages in time, but can't see TOM and TCX expanding on the route.

[Heathrow Harry]

When you look at it there is no real reason why Cardiff (pop 346,000) shouldn't generate as much traffic as Bristol (pop 428,00) when Cardiff should have a bigger hinterland effect than Bristol - get 20 miles east of Bristol and Ha throw starts to loom large, 40 miles north and you have Brum in contention.

It's due to mis-mangement over a long period IMHO

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

It's not population it's brass that counts.

People will travel a long way West to avoid Thiefrow..

[bacp]

Malta is a low volume destination, the biggest surprise is that the flight exists at CWL at all.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "It's not population it's brass that counts.

People will travel a long way West to avoid Thiefrow..


True up to a point, but destination, price and convenience are also factors.

[MerchantVenturer]

When you look at it there is no real reason why Cardiff (pop 346,000) shouldn't generate as much traffic as Bristol (pop 428,00) when Cardiff should have a bigger hinterland effect than Bristol - get 20 miles east of Bristol and Ha throw starts to loom large, 40 miles north and you have Brum in contention.

It's due to mis-mangement over a long period IMHO

The situation is not as clear cut as it might appear, Harry.

The relative demographics loom large as do the respective economic strengths of the two sides of the Severn estuary/Bristol Channel.

The Bristol city region and neighbouring rural/semi-rural areas have a huge reservoir of well-off people with the means and desire to travel by air. Barbara Cassani made it clear in her book that this was a major reason why Go chose BRS as their second base after Stansted.

This contrasts with Wales where the propensity to fly is amongst the lowest in the UK. The CWL master plan, published around the time the airport was enjoying its strongest ever route network and highest ever passenger numbers (2 mppa) still bemoaned this lack of propensity to fly even though there was more opportunity at the local airport at that time. Furthermore, around 12% of BRS's passengers were still South Wales-originating/terminating when CWL was at its zenith.

The Bristol area economy remains one of the most robust in the country and according to PM Cameron in a speech last year the city is the second richest in the UK outside London: I presume he means by GVA/GDP.

Cardiff as a city is relatively wealthy but this does not apply to much of the rest of Wales where unemployment levels are high.

You make a valid point about Bristol being close to both London and Birmingham - the South West contributes more air travellers to the London airports (mainly LHR) than any other region outside London/South East England.

Nevertheless, BRS still has a huge secondary catchment in geographical terms as it draws in passengers from the entire South West, South Wales, South Midlands and Thames Valley, as it's roughly in the middle of these areas. Greater Bristol (aka as the West of England or the former county of Avon) is responsible for about half of the airport's near 6 mppa (all stats vide CAA).

CWL is not as 'centrally' situated. Whether improved road and rail links which are always being discussed would significantly improve this position remains to be seen.

It does have a certain cachet in that it serves Wales's capital city but in practice this doesn't appear to be much help - as yet, anyway.

Although the last part of journeys to BRS can be difficult for many people the city itself sits astride a major rail crossing feeding the Midlands/North, South-West, South Wales, Thames Valley, London and the South Coast. Two major motorways (the east-west M4 and midlands-southwest M5) also cross on the city's northern outskirts. The benefit of this shouldn't be under-estimated.

Municipal population sizes are in my view relatively unimportant as it's necessary to look at the city region as a whole but even with the municipal areas things aren't what they might seem. Whereas the city of Cardiff covers nearly all of its contiguous urban area as well as some surrounding semi-urban the city of Bristol doesn't in its area.

Because of local political intrigue Bristol has not expanded its boundaries since the early 1960s but the surrounding urban sprawl has grown hugely in the past fifty years. The unitary authority of South Gloucestershire has a population similar to the city of Plymouth (around 250,000), much of it urban and often informally called North Bristol, which is joined to Bristol on the city's northern and eastern boundaries - you can't see the join. Add in urban bits of the unitary authorities of Bath & Northeast Somerset and North Somerset that also lie cheek by jowl with the city and you have a physical (as opposed to municipal) city urban population well in excess of 600,000.

BRS has certainly been fortunate (though I believe you make your own luck in many ways) in the quality of its senior management from the days of the late Les Wilson in the 1980s/early 1990s. The owners have also been supportive since privatisation. This has undoubtedly had a bearing on the airport's successful track record over the past 20 years.

Conversely, I doubt that many people would argue with the view that CWL has seriously under-performed in the past few years. The main driver has been the recession where less well-off areas have broadly suffered disproportionately to the better-off ones. However, it's also difficult not to wonder if the airport owners could not have done more to help. Many believe they could.

In summary, because of the size and make-up of the two areas BRS ought to be busier with a wider network than CWL in the same way that BHX should be (and is of course) in relation to BRS. The real question is to what degree.

[bacp]

We are in danger of going into 'WA' mode here..

[mustrum_ridcully]

Heathrow Harry - mismanagement has played a part (like the loss of ryanair) but the big reason why BRS has outperformed CWL is the population and how rich they are (as MV has said).

Within roughly an hours drive (in England) of BRS you've got large towns like Bath, Swindon, Gloucester, and Cheltenham (plus plenty of smaller towns). None of these towns are exactly poor, whereas parts of CWL's Welsh ~1hour catchment area (like the Valleys and even Swansea) are considered to be SO poor that they get money from the EU.

[AirGuru]

Pretty much well summed up there MV. Earlier i was looking at the 2008 CAA passenger survey, and the BRS leakage back then from CWL's core catchment was rather large indeed, even when Baby was at the airport. I would hate to see the exact figure now ! Probably increased 3 fold !

[TwinAisle]

I wish people would stop blaming the management for the loss of Ryanair. How exactly would they stop them from leaving, short of letting their tyres down? Cardiff's rates do not have far to fall, so that option is out. It makes no commercial sense to pay them to come - the airport has to make a living as well. At the end of the day, if Ryanair thought they had better commercial prospects at BRS, they would go - and they did. Not much the airport management can do about the state of the two local economies.

Air "Guru" - you'll probably find that the leakage is lower now, not higher.

[fanrailuk]

Greyhound bus

It has been revealed by BBC News that there is to be a direct bus link originating in Swansea, but calling via Cardiff and Newport to Bristol Airport from March.

As mentioned on the Bristol thread, it truly is great news for BRS and Welsh travellers who frequent the facility but, on the other hand, one hell of a big nail in the ever closing CWL coffin...

Direct South Wales coach route to rival Bristol Airport « officialwan

[Phileas Fogg]

How can it be a direct bus link if it originates in Swansea, terminates in Lulsgate, yet calls by Cardiff and Newport?

So how is this such a different "nail" than the "nails" operated by National Express for donkeys years past linking the likes of Swansea, Port Talbot, Cardiff, Newport, Chepstow etc. with Heathrow and Gatwick Airports or the train services from Cardiff Central to Birmingham New Street with a PDQ connection to Birmingham International (Airport) thereafter?