MANCHESTER - 8
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G-WWBM
TCX69
I noticed it tonight on flightradar24 departing Manchester and
flying over BHX in the cruise. Not sure what time that was but
this evening after 18.00.
Pete
I noticed it tonight on flightradar24 departing Manchester and
flying over BHX in the cruise. Not sure what time that was but
this evening after 18.00.
Pete
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But it is silly not to factor in the bad news too
Like I say, the only major 'loss' in the scheduled market is that of Libyan (who will be back, as not all troubles last forever, yes, might not be this year, but they will), and BD to LHR.
At the end of the day, when you look at one side of the situation, its easy to see doom and gloom, but the imbalance points more towards a posative outlook. 3x new A330 services to the middle east alone outwieghs the loss of BD/Libyan, and as mentioned before, BE replaced MSE with LDY, whilst easyjet replaced HEL with BIO.
I agree that with oil at its current price, it is slightly worrying, but, with all of the new services that are due to start, I am sure 2011 will prove better pax wise than 2010. 2012 may be a different story, but lets have 2011 run its course before we analyse 2012 deeply.
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WBT -
You seem to be completely disregarding the IT charter sector. Holidays, leisure. That is where the pain will be most evident. A modest increase in scheduled capacity is but one part of the equation. We all get to hear about a new thrice weekly service to BIO (yes, I know about it ... I'm booked on it!) but a raft of B752/B763 charters to Sharm-el-Sheikh disappear quietly from the programmes. There are no press releases, but the capacity is gone.
Even on the scheduled services, the capacity increases need to be kept in perspective. Virgin goes from 10 x B744 to 7 x A333 and 7 x B744 per week. Etihad will be 14 x A332 versus 7 x B773. Capacity increases yes, game changers no. EK/QR capacity increases are more substantial, and the sixth based EZY is positive news too. I fear that the new RYR schedules are predatory, targeting core established Monarch and Jet2 type routes ... a mixed blessing. They risk carving up existing business.
Factor in the known scheduled cutbacks, the extremely difficult IT backdrop, the hard economic times and assorted wars / revolutions in key markets and you will appreciate why a negative stance is justified. A modest net gain in scheduled service capacity can not carry the day alone.
Rgds. SHED.
You seem to be completely disregarding the IT charter sector. Holidays, leisure. That is where the pain will be most evident. A modest increase in scheduled capacity is but one part of the equation. We all get to hear about a new thrice weekly service to BIO (yes, I know about it ... I'm booked on it!) but a raft of B752/B763 charters to Sharm-el-Sheikh disappear quietly from the programmes. There are no press releases, but the capacity is gone.
Even on the scheduled services, the capacity increases need to be kept in perspective. Virgin goes from 10 x B744 to 7 x A333 and 7 x B744 per week. Etihad will be 14 x A332 versus 7 x B773. Capacity increases yes, game changers no. EK/QR capacity increases are more substantial, and the sixth based EZY is positive news too. I fear that the new RYR schedules are predatory, targeting core established Monarch and Jet2 type routes ... a mixed blessing. They risk carving up existing business.
Factor in the known scheduled cutbacks, the extremely difficult IT backdrop, the hard economic times and assorted wars / revolutions in key markets and you will appreciate why a negative stance is justified. A modest net gain in scheduled service capacity can not carry the day alone.
Rgds. SHED.
WBT.
Just because a new route comes on line does not mean it's going to be successful.
I've just travelled on the new BMI MAN-BSL-MAN and the numbers were decidely thin for an A319. My previous trips to BSL from MAN were with SWISS & they struggled to fill an RJ100,and that only operated 3 times a week.
To be honest a "W" pattern Vienna service would probably have been more successful for BMI, but I hope their BSL picks up, but a daily flight is a big ask.
I'm with Shed on this one, I wouldn't get too over excited. Any pax increase at all this year will be a result. The IT market will definitely be down this summer & don't forget half the TCX A330 is to go in October too.
Probably the new RYR routes will be the saving grace of extra pax to offset losses.
Just because a new route comes on line does not mean it's going to be successful.
I've just travelled on the new BMI MAN-BSL-MAN and the numbers were decidely thin for an A319. My previous trips to BSL from MAN were with SWISS & they struggled to fill an RJ100,and that only operated 3 times a week.
To be honest a "W" pattern Vienna service would probably have been more successful for BMI, but I hope their BSL picks up, but a daily flight is a big ask.
I'm with Shed on this one, I wouldn't get too over excited. Any pax increase at all this year will be a result. The IT market will definitely be down this summer & don't forget half the TCX A330 is to go in October too.
Probably the new RYR routes will be the saving grace of extra pax to offset losses.
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Airport City Plans
All,
Here is a link to the airport city plans.
http://www.manchester.gov.uk/egov_do...rport_City.pdf
Note the render of the airport with the T3 expansion and T1-T2 link in place as well as the render of changes to road access and the metrolink alignment.
Gavin.
Here is a link to the airport city plans.
http://www.manchester.gov.uk/egov_do...rport_City.pdf
Note the render of the airport with the T3 expansion and T1-T2 link in place as well as the render of changes to road access and the metrolink alignment.
Gavin.
Last edited by GavinC; 5th Apr 2011 at 09:54.
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A Ryanair press release confirms that its latest bust up is with Alicante Airport operator AENA, which is mandating use of airbridges at additional cost. As a result, RYR is to axe 80% of its programme at ALC with 31 routes dropped completely and 27 retained at reduced frequency. Based aircraft drop from 11 to 2. Interestingly, despite this, MAN-ALC is amongst the 27 survivors for Winter 2011/2. Although nominally a "frequency reduction" there was no comparable service in Winter 2010/1, and a drop from Summer 2011 capacity is to be expected anyway. It seems that maintaining presence on this route is something of a priority for RYR. Services from ALC to LBA/LPL are also retained at reduced frequency. SHED.
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but a raft of B752/B763 charters to Sharm-el-Sheikh disappear quietly from the programmes. There are no press releases, but the capacity is gone
Factor in the known scheduled cutbacks, the extremely difficult IT backdrop, the hard economic times and assorted wars / revolutions in key markets and you will appreciate why a negative stance is justified. A modest net gain in scheduled service capacity can not carry the day alone
Just because a new route comes on line does not mean it's going to be successful
What about the fact that, as of April 13th, MAD will finally be back on the departure boards after a 2-3 year absence? What about the fact that we finally have our Berlin route back as of november?
The simple fact is, theres a lot more comming in than going out. Aside from the charter market which changes yearly, and lets face it, has been in decline for years now, so nothing new, if all we have lost is 4 5xCRJ to Libya, 7xDash8 to MSE, 3xA319 to HEL and the equivilent of say, 2xA320 to LHR, as opposed to the extensive list of whats new, Id say we havent fared as badly as being made out. And its not fantasy, its clearly there to see.
At the end of the day, If were were in Birmingham, they I could see a need to grumble, but come on, we've been blessed with 16+ new services, are we never happy?!?!?
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Are We Never Happy?
WBT -
Reporting on real market conditions is not a matter of moaning or promoting joy/misery ... it is about compiling reliable data based upon which businesses can competently plan for the future. You seem to be in the camp of those spin doctors who believe that if you say "everything is wonderful" often enough then it will be so. Have you though about becoming an MP? I prefer to assess real world data as it actually is, not as I would dearly like it to be, though I can certainly see the attraction of living life on happy pills!
I will not repeat the facts listed in earlier postings, but they remain truths. Brent Crude closed over $120/bbl last night, and it appears to be in a sustained rising trajectory (not a brief spike to $147 as in 2008). That is serious stuff. A real concern for airlines. UK Consumers are facing VAT at 20%, rising inflation and a squeeze on household incomes (not to mention job security). Airlines and tour operators are well aware of all this. They have to be, and they have to incorporate these realities into their forecasting and planning if they wish to see their businesses survive and prosper in the future.
The major tour operators will redeploy assets displaced from markets such as Egypt and Tunisia, but only to the extent that profitability can be maintained. If they move significant additional capacity into Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece they again come head-to-head with the no-frills carriers such as Ryanair. This squeezes margins (to arguably unattractive levels based upon business risk). And this also puts them back inside the Eurozone where they have been strategically reducing exposure over recent seasons. The "Club Med" countries also come with the risk of endemic industrial action as citizens there protest against austerity programmes. Tourists are always a favourite target. So yes, the big tour operators will redeploy such capacity as they deem sustainable, but they will not pile on marginal product for the sake of volume alone. UK Tour Operators have matured: their goal is sustainable profits, not customer volume targets. Remember too that in the time since the big UK tour operators cut back in the Eurozone, hotel groups there have signed long-term bed contracts with operators from new markets (Russia, Poland etc.); UK companies can't just decide to waltz back in at the drop of a hat. There is more to it than that, and hoteliers want long-term commitments.
In answer to your question asking whether I am ever happy [with progress at MAN] my answer is this. I am neither happy nor unhappy; I evaluate factors affecting business according to real data, not emotions. Obviously, I would like to see MAN prosper along with the airlines and tour operators which support the airport, but I will not report fantasy data for the sake of spreading good cheer on the PPRuNe forum. My contributions to the PPRuNe discussions endeavour to educate and inform other users, as I hope to learn from them in turn. I will not promote happy talk and spin as economic reality; readers here deserve better than that. They can read "Harry Potter" over a frothy cup of cocoa if they want a feelgood top-up. If they read my postings I'll tell it as it is - good, bad or indifferent.
There is much to commend your super-happy outlook on life; you must have a great time and I wish you well! You're probably great company at a party. But sometimes inconvenient realities do intrude and must be taken in to account. Libya is not facing "troubles", it is embroiled in a ruinous civil war with no easy resolution in sight. Oil is at an elevated price, economies are hurting, Western Governments are engaged in "QE to the Moon." Top business leaders MUST take account of such realities if they are to be successful stewards of their companies going forward. And its no bad thing for we contributors here on PPRuNe to face facts too.
Rgds. SHED.
Reporting on real market conditions is not a matter of moaning or promoting joy/misery ... it is about compiling reliable data based upon which businesses can competently plan for the future. You seem to be in the camp of those spin doctors who believe that if you say "everything is wonderful" often enough then it will be so. Have you though about becoming an MP? I prefer to assess real world data as it actually is, not as I would dearly like it to be, though I can certainly see the attraction of living life on happy pills!
I will not repeat the facts listed in earlier postings, but they remain truths. Brent Crude closed over $120/bbl last night, and it appears to be in a sustained rising trajectory (not a brief spike to $147 as in 2008). That is serious stuff. A real concern for airlines. UK Consumers are facing VAT at 20%, rising inflation and a squeeze on household incomes (not to mention job security). Airlines and tour operators are well aware of all this. They have to be, and they have to incorporate these realities into their forecasting and planning if they wish to see their businesses survive and prosper in the future.
The major tour operators will redeploy assets displaced from markets such as Egypt and Tunisia, but only to the extent that profitability can be maintained. If they move significant additional capacity into Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece they again come head-to-head with the no-frills carriers such as Ryanair. This squeezes margins (to arguably unattractive levels based upon business risk). And this also puts them back inside the Eurozone where they have been strategically reducing exposure over recent seasons. The "Club Med" countries also come with the risk of endemic industrial action as citizens there protest against austerity programmes. Tourists are always a favourite target. So yes, the big tour operators will redeploy such capacity as they deem sustainable, but they will not pile on marginal product for the sake of volume alone. UK Tour Operators have matured: their goal is sustainable profits, not customer volume targets. Remember too that in the time since the big UK tour operators cut back in the Eurozone, hotel groups there have signed long-term bed contracts with operators from new markets (Russia, Poland etc.); UK companies can't just decide to waltz back in at the drop of a hat. There is more to it than that, and hoteliers want long-term commitments.
In answer to your question asking whether I am ever happy [with progress at MAN] my answer is this. I am neither happy nor unhappy; I evaluate factors affecting business according to real data, not emotions. Obviously, I would like to see MAN prosper along with the airlines and tour operators which support the airport, but I will not report fantasy data for the sake of spreading good cheer on the PPRuNe forum. My contributions to the PPRuNe discussions endeavour to educate and inform other users, as I hope to learn from them in turn. I will not promote happy talk and spin as economic reality; readers here deserve better than that. They can read "Harry Potter" over a frothy cup of cocoa if they want a feelgood top-up. If they read my postings I'll tell it as it is - good, bad or indifferent.
There is much to commend your super-happy outlook on life; you must have a great time and I wish you well! You're probably great company at a party. But sometimes inconvenient realities do intrude and must be taken in to account. Libya is not facing "troubles", it is embroiled in a ruinous civil war with no easy resolution in sight. Oil is at an elevated price, economies are hurting, Western Governments are engaged in "QE to the Moon." Top business leaders MUST take account of such realities if they are to be successful stewards of their companies going forward. And its no bad thing for we contributors here on PPRuNe to face facts too.
Rgds. SHED.
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There is much to commend your super-happy outlook on life; you must have a great time and I wish you well! You're probably great company at a party. But sometimes inconvenient realities do intrude and must be taken in to account
Im not reporting 'super happy spin', Im mearly commenting on the simple, basic fact, that more capacity has been added this year than we have lost (so far).
Im well aware of all the market conditions you point out, but Im mearly saying that not just the doom and gloom should be pointed out. Yes, realities should be kept in check, but, surely by all the airlines adding the capacity they are, know what they are doing and the fact that we have 16+ new services, with 4 completely new destinations for 2011 shouldnt be overlooked.
Libya is not facing "troubles", it is embroiled in a ruinous civil war with no easy resolution in sight
(*when I say normality, I know Libya will never fully be a open, democratic state, but, by normality I mean where at least trade continues and once again passengers can travel to/from the country).
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Oh come on SHED, can we not be happy for the positives? The route development people at MAN have done a wonderful job lately and deserve a bit of praise. It must be soul destroying to work so hard to get new services in, during difficult times and then read such negative comments on a forum like this.
I expect you might be partially right but reading your comments is wrist slitting stuff. Manchester is doing relatively well in hard times so let's just be grateful for that. It could be a lot lot worse - reading about some of the other airports on this forum.
On another note I have now sampled the brand new Lufthansa (re BMI) business class service between MAN and FRA which despite the gloom (sorry) was actually full in Business and I think more or less full at the back too although I couldn't see properly. Credit where credit's due, the CC did a good job and were almost as good as the LH people (I think the only difference is cultural - where good manners and courtesy are engrained in the German psyche, it's bit more forced when Brits try it). But it was fine really.
Noticeable difference though is the typical lazy announcements of the FC = '(yawning...) starting our descent over London, then up over Birmingham and landing on the South Westerly runway at Manchester''
Inbound flights don't route over Birmingham (some outbounds do) but over Leicester and Derby (I'd say more or less up the route of the M1 from visuals)....how do I know this? Well, many a Lufthansa and Swiss pilot has accurately pointed this out unlike their British counterparts who should know better. Sloppiness and inaccuracy are not attributes I'm comfortable with in a pilot tbh.
I expect you might be partially right but reading your comments is wrist slitting stuff. Manchester is doing relatively well in hard times so let's just be grateful for that. It could be a lot lot worse - reading about some of the other airports on this forum.
On another note I have now sampled the brand new Lufthansa (re BMI) business class service between MAN and FRA which despite the gloom (sorry) was actually full in Business and I think more or less full at the back too although I couldn't see properly. Credit where credit's due, the CC did a good job and were almost as good as the LH people (I think the only difference is cultural - where good manners and courtesy are engrained in the German psyche, it's bit more forced when Brits try it). But it was fine really.
Noticeable difference though is the typical lazy announcements of the FC = '(yawning...) starting our descent over London, then up over Birmingham and landing on the South Westerly runway at Manchester''
Inbound flights don't route over Birmingham (some outbounds do) but over Leicester and Derby (I'd say more or less up the route of the M1 from visuals)....how do I know this? Well, many a Lufthansa and Swiss pilot has accurately pointed this out unlike their British counterparts who should know better. Sloppiness and inaccuracy are not attributes I'm comfortable with in a pilot tbh.
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Yes, but how many B757's and B767's are leaving the TOM/TCX fleets? Yes, they may not be as filled on the new routes they will be placed on, but, they are still there none-the-less.
Same fleet size but carrying fewer passengers is not good if I am understanding you correctly. Ryanair will put a dent in some of the traditional based routes, they will grow the markets but slam the yields.
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WBT -
It is not my intention to "belittle" your posts. My replies are not phrased to suggest that at all. In turn, I should remind you that my posts do not report doom and gloom alone; I report ALL news about MAN as I come across it. I just don't turn a blind eye to the bad stuff.
MM -
You are hilarious as always. My cup may be half empty, but it is a large cup and it contains copious quantities of Vimto. The very nectar of the Gods. And I can hit the bottle at will when the cup runs dry. So I am content.
Rgds. Shed.
It is not my intention to "belittle" your posts. My replies are not phrased to suggest that at all. In turn, I should remind you that my posts do not report doom and gloom alone; I report ALL news about MAN as I come across it. I just don't turn a blind eye to the bad stuff.
MM -
You are hilarious as always. My cup may be half empty, but it is a large cup and it contains copious quantities of Vimto. The very nectar of the Gods. And I can hit the bottle at will when the cup runs dry. So I am content.
Rgds. Shed.
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Well, Im sorry shed, but I did find this:
Very belittling. You may as well have said 'run along boy, you have a lot to learn in life', which I find quite insulting.
At the end of the day, Im actually quite happy with where MAN lies at the present moment in time. Yes, 2012 will probably be very different, as I doubt as much capacity will need to be added, the fuel increases will hit hard if the prices are at the same rate as now when it comes to the airlines renewing their fuel hedging prices.
In terms of doom and gloom, lets put MAN into perspective shall we?
BHX has had the grand total of 0 new routes so far this year (I dont count RYR cutting 1 destination to add another as an increase, as its the same capacity). Even KLM steered clear of adding capacity into BHX when LBA/MAN/BRS and so on got an extra flight each.
DSA lost easyjet the back end of this year, gained a few Ryanair flights, but with the latest spat, even ALC will be gone again.
LPL pax figures have gone down again lately, and so on.
So, with Cargo increasing at MAN, Pax figures going upwards, upgrades, new airport city, new control tower, new destinations, new services, why does the doom and gloom have to take such a front stance?
There is much to commend your super-happy outlook on life; you must have a great time and I wish you well! You're probably great company at a party
At the end of the day, Im actually quite happy with where MAN lies at the present moment in time. Yes, 2012 will probably be very different, as I doubt as much capacity will need to be added, the fuel increases will hit hard if the prices are at the same rate as now when it comes to the airlines renewing their fuel hedging prices.
In terms of doom and gloom, lets put MAN into perspective shall we?
BHX has had the grand total of 0 new routes so far this year (I dont count RYR cutting 1 destination to add another as an increase, as its the same capacity). Even KLM steered clear of adding capacity into BHX when LBA/MAN/BRS and so on got an extra flight each.
DSA lost easyjet the back end of this year, gained a few Ryanair flights, but with the latest spat, even ALC will be gone again.
LPL pax figures have gone down again lately, and so on.
So, with Cargo increasing at MAN, Pax figures going upwards, upgrades, new airport city, new control tower, new destinations, new services, why does the doom and gloom have to take such a front stance?
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All Names Taken -
I believe you have answered your own question. I quote: "Manchester is doing RELATIVELY well in hard times" [emphasis mine]. That is my message: times are tough, there is bad news out there as well as the good. I acknowledge news of all varieties, but I celebrate good news as fervently as any. I just don't consider it helpful to bury the bad news. If you read back, this line of discussion springs from some contributors' assessment that happy times are here again (see March stats posting and follow-ons). My intention is to restore balance to the discussion, and that means acknowledging the big picture. Not just the juicy bits. Nowhere do I decry the great work and commitment by the MAG team who work tirelessly to attract new business; well done them. But they work within limitations dictated by real world concerns, and if we wish to be well informed we all need to acknowledge those realities.
Rgds. SHED.
I believe you have answered your own question. I quote: "Manchester is doing RELATIVELY well in hard times" [emphasis mine]. That is my message: times are tough, there is bad news out there as well as the good. I acknowledge news of all varieties, but I celebrate good news as fervently as any. I just don't consider it helpful to bury the bad news. If you read back, this line of discussion springs from some contributors' assessment that happy times are here again (see March stats posting and follow-ons). My intention is to restore balance to the discussion, and that means acknowledging the big picture. Not just the juicy bits. Nowhere do I decry the great work and commitment by the MAG team who work tirelessly to attract new business; well done them. But they work within limitations dictated by real world concerns, and if we wish to be well informed we all need to acknowledge those realities.
Rgds. SHED.
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WBT -
"Run along boy???" You're doing a great job of supplying your own insults! As I said, there are no personal insults from me. Not my style. Is it really offensive to be considered good company? Take it as a compliment. It is.
"You have alot to learn in life." Well, we all have! Unfortunately, many don't realise it. True genius is the realisation that you know very little about nothing much!
Now a couple of points from your final paragraph. "Pax figures going up" ... they're not. That's the issue which started this discussion (March stats refer).
"Why does doom and gloom have to take such a front stance?" - It doesn't. But its existence does need to be acknowledged and taken into account. Exclusive reporting of happy stories alone is about as useful as a North Korean news broadcast.
Rgds. SHED.
"Run along boy???" You're doing a great job of supplying your own insults! As I said, there are no personal insults from me. Not my style. Is it really offensive to be considered good company? Take it as a compliment. It is.
"You have alot to learn in life." Well, we all have! Unfortunately, many don't realise it. True genius is the realisation that you know very little about nothing much!
Now a couple of points from your final paragraph. "Pax figures going up" ... they're not. That's the issue which started this discussion (March stats refer).
"Why does doom and gloom have to take such a front stance?" - It doesn't. But its existence does need to be acknowledged and taken into account. Exclusive reporting of happy stories alone is about as useful as a North Korean news broadcast.
Rgds. SHED.