WBT -
You seem to be completely disregarding the IT charter sector. Holidays, leisure. That is where the pain will be most evident. A modest increase in scheduled capacity is but one part of the equation. We all get to hear about a new thrice weekly service to BIO (yes, I know about it ... I'm booked on it!) but a raft of B752/B763 charters to Sharm-el-Sheikh disappear quietly from the programmes. There are no press releases, but the capacity is gone.
Even on the scheduled services, the capacity increases need to be kept in perspective. Virgin goes from 10 x B744 to 7 x A333 and 7 x B744 per week. Etihad will be 14 x A332 versus 7 x B773. Capacity increases yes, game changers no. EK/QR capacity increases are more substantial, and the sixth based EZY is positive news too. I fear that the new RYR schedules are predatory, targeting core established Monarch and Jet2 type routes ... a mixed blessing. They risk carving up existing business.
Factor in the known scheduled cutbacks, the extremely difficult IT backdrop, the hard economic times and assorted wars / revolutions in key markets and you will appreciate why a negative stance is justified. A modest net gain in scheduled service capacity can not carry the day alone.
Rgds. SHED.