-using my phone so I'm sorry for any errors-
I didn't infer TOM were decreasing for 2015 but since 2012 (I think) when it was all 757, there is a decrease, although I have discounted 2011's anomaly by which I mean we had 4 TCX 757's, not all 235 seaters but still a canny bit. If you look on the upside, in a few years we should have the 235 seater A321neo and in about 20-25 years we might have the 200 seater MAX from LS.
It was my understanding that next year we go from 4 733 and 2 752 to 3 733 and 3 738, so actually the Jet2 loss will not be substantial.
The 2 new routes each from TOM and TCX come from (as far as I can tell) gaps in the schedules and a few being dropped, and TOM's now cancelled use of other airlines has been covered. LS's new routes and increases also cone from gaps along with reduction in frequency, for example on FAO and I swear LPA and HER have lost frequency. Also increased use of ALC aircraft. I think if anything Jet2's net increase will be about 2-3 per week if that.
Looking quite far ahead but I hope for 2016 we might finally see LS giving us the 8 aircraft we have been promised, or TOM going to 4 or TCX swapping the A320 for A321.
In terms of long haul, could there be demand for Mexico's west coast? Or a return to the Dominican Republic? India or Thailand could be a good shout but there would be no real benefits since we have EK. I don't think it would be a success nowadays. TCX might give something a go but I don't know where, and hopefully Jet2 one day might do Florida. We do have Montego Bay coming online though for the winter which is good, and it's already loaded for next winter too so fingers crossed for good loads, just a bit if a shame it's on the 767 not 787 which seems a bit weird.
I don't think well see anything from Flybe or Bmi, but I'd like to see Flybe do Tegel. Milan is another burning route that pisses me off a bit that we don't have it.