NEWCASTLE - 8

[HH6702]

Increases for next summer and easyjet

If easyjet do get hold of those flybe slots at gatwick i can see them closing the NCL base and moving our 3 aircraft down there unless easyjet can use those extra slots with the aircraft they have already down there??

Increases from this summer to next summer

Corfu - 1 x weekly Thomson
Kefaliona - 1x weekly Thomson
Kos - 1x weekly Thomas Cook
Rhodes - 1 x weekly Thomson
Ibiza - 1 x weekly Jet2
Palma - 2 x weekly Jet2
Reus - 1 x weekly Jet2

Thomas Cook have changed one of the Thursday Dalaman flights to a Wednesday. This now means that there is a daily TCX flight to Dalaman from NCL!!

The above is what ive been able to pick up on from what is on sale.
Jet2 still have loads to put on sale.

If we have these many extra flights so soon if these get filled up before end of year then hopefully they will add extra before the season starts....

[SWBKCB]

You would be far better to discuss EZY, I had it on good authority that things were to improve, though there now seems to have been a major swing, as the base simply is not proving to be as profitable as they would wish & as ever they see it simply as a "bucket & spade" base with few exceptions.

If easyjet do get hold of those flybe slots at gatwick i can see them closing the NCL base and moving our 3 aircraft down there unless easyjet can use those extra slots with the aircraft they have already down there??

Interesting, cos I have it on 'good authority' that there are unlikely to be any significant changes either way - a few tweaks on routes/frequencies/destinations, but nothing that will alter the level of crews/aircraft based.

[SWBKCB]

March and April stats

March:

AMSTERDAM - 29,303 + 26%

DUBAI - 17,679 + 26%

PARIS - 11,327 - 29%

DUSSELDORF - 2,591 - 27%

GATWICK - 6928 - 4%

HEATHROW - 42,712 - 4%

April:

Amsterdam - 30,420 +29%

Dubai - 16,596 +29%

Paris CDG - 11,811 -26%

Dusseldorf - 2,805 -21%

Gatwick - 6,607 -6%

Heathrow - 39,898 -2%


Stats make interesting reading in relation to some recent airline decisions - and I know it's all about yield and not bums on seats and that Easter straddling March/April this year also has an impact.

But - two months of 20%+ increases show that EK know how to fill an A/C. Appreciate that they can shift pax around between GLA/NCL/MAN, but still impressive growth.

Also, EZY switching from CDG to AMS looks to have worked - assuming that most of the AMS increase is down to EZY, there has been a bigger % increase on a higher base figure compared to the reduction to CDG. Will be interesting to see how long it lasts.

Could also be argued that the reduction on DUS has 'worked' - half the number of flights but only a 20-30% reduction in pax, so over capacity on the route previously?

LGW/LHR reductions both just due to Easter?

[crewmeal]

Careful folks if you keep on bleeting about EK and the numbers, after reading all these threads they might just put the A330 back on again

[SWBKCB]

Yeah, I understand that Pprune threads have a major impact on EK's route and fleet planning strategies...

[Ringwayman]

But - two months of 20%+ increases show that EK know how to fill an A/C. Appreciate that they can shift pax around between GLA/NCL/MAN, but still impressive growth.

Growth rates in April for the airports where EK is the only operator to DXB:
BHX 3.36%, MAN 15.83%, LGW 19.32%, NCL 28.58%, GLA 49.74%

Average loads:
GLA 266.67, NCL 276.6, LGW 337.55, BHX 340.14, MAN 353.89

So where is the great "shifting around of passengers" between GLA/NCL/MAN?

[VentureGo]

Looking at the report Ash linked to a few days ago below, indicates the thinking behind future growth at Newcastle as it is being presented to the new shareholders (AMP)

From ASH666 "Routesonline

ROUTES EUROPE: Newcastle International Airport on Stable Footing :: Routesonline

Away from these long-haul markets the airport has plans to further expand its domestic and European offering as well as strengthening operations to existing markets. The return of an important link to Brussels is a priority after Brussels Airlines pulled the route at short notice earlier this year, while the Continental European network wishlist includes a range of other destinations including Berlin, Madrid, Milan; markets Sanders believes can be sustainably served on a twice or three times weekly basis. In the UK, the return of a London Stansted link is one option for growth, although more favourably the airport would like to see the introduction of a jet aircraft on Flybe’s London Gatwick flight replacing the existing Bombardier Dash 8-Q400 with an Embraer 175.

Our aim is to be the most welcoming airport in the UK and this year, we’re going above and beyond once again for our customers,” said Sanders. “Last year was a great year for the airport as well as the North East travelling public. We secured a number of new routes to sought-after destinations, were honoured with the AOA Award for best UK airport under six million passengers for the fourth year in the row and welcomed a 50 per cent increase in seats on our Emirates service to Dubai with the debut of the 428-seat Boeing 777-300ER. We also officially opened our £3.2 million terminal development.” A small growth in passenger numbers in 2012 ended five consecutive years of declines and following only a modest decline in 2011 shows stability in the local market. Latest data from the UK CAA data shows positive growth for the rolling 12 month period until February 2013 with traffic up 0.6 per cent from to 4.34 million passengers, ranking it as the country’s eleventh largest facility. Much of this growth again relates to the success of the Emirates route to Dubai, but also an increase in flying from easyJet which has just celebrated its tenth anniversary of operations at Newcastle.

The airport is now looking to the future and is in the process of redeveloping its master plan strategy which will show its aspirations up to 2030. It is currently a key business in the North East of England providing both employment opportunities and driving the development of the local economy. According to latest company data, the airport employs 3,200 people on site and contributes more than £646 million to the North East every year. It supports £182.4 million in Gross Value Added (GVA) through on-site activity, £27.4 million through directly related off-site activity and £135.7m in GVA through indirect and induced effects in the North East. While, on the basis of 2012 traffic levels, analysis by York Aviation suggests the services provided by the Airport will bring economic benefits of £243.2 million to the region.
“
"It amazes me when you look at events like these events and the number of lives that will be changed for the better, the growth in business and the economic development the decisions that are taken will bring to any country. I really wish the UK Prime Minister and other senior Government officials could take time and visit a Routes event, see what goes on and how important this industry is."
Chris Sanders,
Aviation Development Director, Newcastle International Airport


A key part of Newcastle’s network development strategy involves attendance at the spring Routes Europe regional event and the autumn World Routes forum. For Sanders this is an important part of his annual diary and he has attended each Routes Europe since 2009, while he has been at almost every World Routes event. “The events on one hand enable us to maintain relationships with existing customers, where it would difficult and expensive to see them all. On the other hand it allows us to speak to potential new partners while also catching up with industry colleagues to better understand developments across the sector all across a three day period,” said Sanders.
He also had a special message for the UK Government. “It amazes me when you look at events like these and the number of lives that will be changed for the better, the growth in business and the economic development the decisions that are taken will bring to any country. I really wish the UK Prime Minister and other senior Government officials could take time and visit a Routes event, see what goes on and how important this industry is,” said Sanders. A good time perhaps to highlight that Emirates’ daily Dubai service from Newcastle will raise around £8.5 million for the Government through its controversial Air Passenger Duty tax.

[Jamesair]

Interesting to read the airport's priorities after New York (of course) Brussels..a new operator...Berlin, Madrid and Milan at 2/3 weekly. Stansted and a jet on the Flybe Gatwick route.

[CentreFix25]

...all of which could easily be operated by current based operators, you have to ask why they don't?

[SWBKCB]

Well maybe not New York, unless you're expecting Jet2 to change their operating model.

Except for Madrid, all the others have been tried and dropped at least once, so it looks like a tough ask even though it's a more realistic wish list (no Frankfurt?).

Growth rates in April for the airports where EK is the only operator to DXB:
BHX 3.36%, MAN 15.83%, LGW 19.32%, NCL 28.58%, GLA 49.74%

Average loads:
GLA 266.67, NCL 276.6, LGW 337.55, BHX 340.14, MAN 353.89

So where is the great "shifting around of passengers" between GLA/NCL/MAN?

In the bin! Apologies, should have checked my facts, although I understand that EK have used special offers, etc to build momentum on new services/upgraded routes at the expense of existing routes - obviously not in this case, an impressive set of figures all round!

[Ringwayman]

There will be a little leakage from BHX + NCL to MAN which will be down to first class product out of MAN; I wonder if any leakage from NCL to GLA will exist for a similar reason?

Honestly believe it's more of medium to long-term thing for EK to go 2 daily at NCL. I don't think they've announced configurations for the A350s yet but I can see NCL getting 2 A350-900s.

[AMS70]

There's little hope of even Jet2 restoring flights to SSH and Thomas Cook reviving their planned HRG route. Three words, Air Passenger Duty.

EL AL to Tel Aviv-Ben Gurion - unlikely, even if APD Band A (Europe/Morocco/Tunisia) was extended to cover the entire Mediterranean coast including Israel. No chance of that happening either. There just isn't the demand anyway.

[HH6702]

Jet2 New Routes

I would like to think that JET2 would start from NCL Milan, Berlin and Madrid for next summer.

2/3 x weekly would work well with there other choice of city breaks from NCL

[GrahamK]

More sunshine routes I'd expect. Maybe Funchal, Zakynthos, Larnaca, Antalya maybe?

[alex207]

Would jet2 operate at Bergamo or Malpensa? If the started operated the milan route. Year round would be great for skiers and summer for visiting many of the surrounding lakes and of course milan!

[Hipennine]

IIRC,(whenever I travelled on it) the FR fights to Bergamo were well loaded (I know, that says nowt about yield), but then they changed it to the stupid flight times - a post midnight arrival into a provincial N.Italian airpoprt is not a lot of good to anybody, and consequently the numbers dropped off a cliff.

However, lots of airlines have tried both Bergamo and MXP from various UK regionals in the past decade, and very few of these routes have survived for whatever reason.

[EK77WNCL]

I flew RYR from NCL-BGY with family and although I was young, I'm pretty sure that the flights were quite full...

I also flew on Jet2 LBA-BGY alone last August and on the flight out I was sat next to a geordie who happened to live merely a mile away from me and he was travelling in a large group of family and friends consisting of about 10 people and I don't know how many were on my flight but I heard quite a few north eastern accents around LBA and then on my flight back to LBA I was sitting next to another couple who used to live, again about 1 mile away from me and who now live in Durham.

So there's definately some demand there from NCL and LBA and although both flights were easily 90-95% full (again, shows nothing of yeild), unfortunately the inevitable has happened and LS has surrendered the BGY route to RYR. Unfortunately due to their, for want of a better word, parasitic nature I cannot see this being the last example of this. Therefore I cannot see Milan being restarted just from NCL although there would be no competition and anything can happen... We'll just have to wait and see.

Madrid, I'd like to see it but I would be doubtful again. Berlin I think could work although using Schonefeld might put some people off especially businessmen, however the low fares could balance that out. Finally, Funchal I'd like to see however could Newcastle support two flights leaving on the same day within an hour of each other? Maybe/maybe not, but Jet2 holidays and Thomson cater for different markets.

All we can do is wait and see, however I think that if Jet2 do up themselves for 2014 (as they were supposed to this year) to 2 757's, 4 733's and 2 738's, we can see some new routes... Now just to get rid of this bloody APD.

[VickersVicount]

"I flew RYR from NCL-BGY with family and although I was young, I'm pretty sure that the flights were quite full..."
That's what we like, good hard statistically significant facts....

[alex207]

I have family in the area around Milan and the North-East of England is loved by the locals and Italians with the coast and there favorite is Hadrians Wall and Milan a big economic city. It obviously has the market lots of UK airports have Milan links so why cant NCL have one!

[EK77WNCL]

@VickersVicount, hahahaha I'm a very statistical person

I do have a horrible feeling that Jet2 might be reaching it's NCL peak just as Easyjet, Flybe and to a lesser extent Thomson and Thomas Cook have.