NEWCASTLE - 8

[10 DME ARC]

V/GO - and you gleamed all that from looking up NCL on routes web site?!?! Were you there?? Did you sit in at any of the meetings???
Get a grip NCL is holdings its own in a very difficult market with a difficult catchment area!
Can we please forget the spotter wish lists and get real.......

[EK77WNCL]

It is true though that, yes NCL has the very successful DXB flight, but the old management seemed to do much better. After all, the EK flight was initiated under the old management and so were the LS and EZY bases etc.

[Falcon900LX]

Newcastle airport is failing in my eyes, long gone are the days that it needed to expand, furthermore I don't believe it's 'very successful', it might be doing well for a REGIONAL fair enough, but if it was 'very successful' I'm sure it would be more than once a day like our Scottish brothers at GLA.
Thanks
Falcon900LX

[SWBKCB]

Get real - the world's a very different place nowadays.

And any facts to back up 'poor showing' at Routes (or any evidence that Routes is effective?)

[CentreFix25]

Here are the facts from the CAA.

You have to say of the English airports, trend wise there is very little between them over the last 2/3 years (little or no growth, with BRS showing the most recently). Which would indicate the people at NCL are not doing any worse in attracting new passengers, but there are so many factors to think about...

[Boris1]

1.3 million passengers lost in 5 years. I would say that's doing something wrong. That's quite a substantial decrease for an airport of NCLs size.

[Jamesair]

Very illuminating figures and graph, CentreFix, it does show the airport has been holding its own through the recession. The worry is that with the loss of Brussels and the likely loss of Gatwick there will be a combined loss of approx 130,000 pax per annum. This is going to take a lot of making up

[MerchantVenturer]

Small point of detail but you have an incorrect figure in your tables and graph for BRS in 2006.

CAA stats show that 5,710,222 passed through its terminal that year, not the 5,015,264 that you've shown.

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport...ports_2006.pdf

The figures do show the general trend though for the English regional airports immediately below MAN and BHX (LPL is also in this group of course) all of which experienced a substantial fall in 2009, to a greater or lesser degree, with not much progress since, although BRS and LBA have made limited gains in each of the years following 2009.

LPL had mildly decent gains in 2010 and 2011 but 2012 was a disappointment with a 15% fall in passenger numbers.

[deltahotel9]

The figures are indeed interesting and perhaps show NCL isn't doing as badly as some believe. It is however the case that we are losing more routes than we are gaining, with BRU gone and LGW almost certainly going, TCX have reduced capacity this year down from 4 to 3 based units, TOM didn't add anything and while LS have announced a raft of new routes for 2014 none of those are operating from NCL.

I'm not in any position to comment on management either way however the fact remains that NCL is stagnating and it can't all be down to 'the tough economic climate' someone somewhere needs to do more to prevent routes being lost, and to add new or replacement routes.

As has been said before often it is much more expensive to fly from NCL than LBA, EDI or MAN and as money is tight many passengers with a genuine choice will go for the cheaper option. The question as to why this is the case has never been answered, is it due to higher fees or simply that airlines charge whatever they think they can get away with? Assuming it's the latter it remains to be seen if by charging less they would get more passengers. Yes, I know it's all about yields not headline fares but it doesn't help NCL when the headline fares are significantly more.

[CentreFix25]

Small point of detail but you have an incorrect figure in your tables and graph for BRS in 2006.
CAA stats show that 5,710,222 passed through its terminal that year, not the 5,015,264 that you've shown.

Thanks for that MV, I did worry so much copying and pasting something would go wrong. I'll update and add some others later.

TOM didn't add anything

They've actually reduced capacity since the 757 have gone.

I know it's all about yields

...and they'll not tell us that information, all we can go off is bums on seats.

1.3 million passengers lost in 5 years. I would say that's doing something wrong.

That was a big drop, EMA had similar. I think the trend was a reduction in numbers across the board during that time - when we first went into recession (we lost XLA about that time and others followed), but others didn't lose such a big percentage.

[alex207]

Maybe Flybe could upgrade on the SOU route with the airport 1 hour 12 mins on the train to Waterloo and 1 hour mins to London (according to Google maps). Or maybe London city on BA cityflyer just a idea? Or Easyjet to SEN,LTN,STN or LGW?

[Tflyer]

It is fair to comment on the reduction in seats from TOM at NCL. However, Thomson Airways has always had long term plans to update the fleet from B757 to B738. NCL was this year, BRS & CWL are the next proposed bases for S14 to go to B738 bases. BRS is also loosing longhaul for S14 due to low profit margins generated on longhaul routes from BRS.

Whilst it may not be ideal for passenger figures for NCL, TOM is operating to fleet planning. Hopefully we will see a 4th based B738 for NCL soon. Which could add extra capacity for NCL if not increasing it.

[skyman771]

I recall reading some time back that to support all the concessions at NCL then pax no.'s of c. 5M pax were mooted.
It can only be a matter of time before sustained reduced no.'s at nearer 4M begin to impact on the pax experience.

[HH6702]

passenger figures

Thank you Centrefix25 for you graph and the yearly passenger figures carried for NCL and other airports in which you compare us too HOWEVER it doesnt really tell you much apart from that there is a decrease of 1.5 million pax over a 5 year period....

Is there anyway you could expand on your finding maybe by route??
That way it would tell us how the north east market has changed over the last 5 years. Have we lost our passengers to bucket and spade flights or business pax now using train?? how can the airport recover the loss in passengers??

1.5 million pax lost over 5 years im sure that the amount of unemployment has grown more than 1.5 million in the north east in the last 5 years???

im sure that 5 years ago i would have 2 summer holidays per year now i stuggle to afford 1 summer holiday away with the family and im sure that the rest of the north east families feel the same??

Looking at the business flights...

what did BRU carry 5 years ago compared to the last 12 months of operation at ncl?? also can we get the figures for DXB and LHR, AMS for the last 5 years.

EK is doing very well...

Tflyer... Well said BRS has lost its long haul routes for summer 2014 but NCL has kept there's from TOM. Does this show again that tour operators are happy with the margins at NCL compared to BRS?

We compare NCL to the likes of EMA,BRS all of the time. Does the cheaper flights there because there is more competition and profit margins are less at these airports.??

Indepentant holiday operators used to use there own planes at NCL 5 years ago. over the last few years these charters have disappeared and they have chartered seats on TOM,TCX etc.

However this summer see's the start of these returning.
We have A3,OHY and others this summer and hopefully this will cont in the next few years to come.

Jet2- there isnt many routes left for them too add.
Easyjet- hopefully more routes in the next few years

Thomson have increased flights for next summer using more of there inhouse airlines for pmi flights so the ncl based aircraft can go else where.

Thomas Cook have re added KOS for next summer.

Hopefully other holiday companies will add also for next summer

Let me know what you think

[BHX5DME]

1990 1,587,256
1991 1,579,883
1992 2,076,238
1993 2,143,022
1994 2,452,826
1995 2,521,448
1996 2,475,741
1997 2,642,615
1998 2,984,724
1999 2,994,051
2000 3,206,070
2001 3,431,393
2002 3,426,952
2003 3,920,204
2004 4,724,263
2005 5,200,806
2006 5,431,976
2007 5,650,716
2008 5,039,993
2009 4,587,883
2010 4,356,130
2011 4,346,270
2012 4,366,196

[HH6702]

Jet2 Summer 2014

Looks like they have added an extra weekly flight to Ibiza and Reus so far for next summer.

again good news and these increases will only add to the yearly totals...

im sure it will still take another few years before we hit 5m mark again but i think that the management are trying there best and the results are shown...

You can never make everyone happy on pprune!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Falcon900LX]

Flight canceled on Christmas day 2012

[CentreFix25]

HOWEVER it doesnt really tell you much apart from that there is a decrease of 1.5 million pax over a 5 year period....

What stands out for me is the big dip when we first went into recession and then the recovery or lack of it in some cases.

The percentage drop at NCL and EMA during the first recession was significantly greater than BRS and LPL, why?

Then the period afterwards at NCL and EMA was flat where BRS has had year on year growth, why?

There are many influencing factors, but could it be as simple as the people pulling the strings not doing as good a job as their counterparts in other parts of the country?

profit margins are less at these airports.??

From the travelling publics point of view I'm not even remotely interested in what their margin is. I want cheap flights and more choice, other airports are doing a better job of this than NCL, why?

[Hipennine]

"From the travelling publics point of view I'm not even remotely interested in what their margin is. I want cheap flights and more choice, other airports are doing a better job of this than NCL, why?"

Well, as a local council tax payer, I am more interested in the mgmt at NCL strengthening the financial position of the airport, based on sustainably profitable air services (and they seem to be achieving that). The previous volume growth to over 5m came during a period of management that saddled the airport with huge debts (and gained the management personal fortunes), that has required a substantial re-financing at council tax payers expense and revenue loss.

[SWBKCB]

There are many influencing factors, but could it be as simple as the people pulling the strings not doing as good a job as their counterparts in other parts of the country?

To quote Bill Clinton "Its the economy, stupid"

The North East has always been one of the poorest areas of the country and the economy has been hit here harder and longer, so the dip at NCL has been harder and longer than at comparable airports.

The relative performance of the respective airport managements might have a marginal effect, but it basically comes down to how much money people have to spend.

I recall reading some time back that to support all the concessions at NCL then pax no.'s of c. 5M pax were mooted.
It can only be a matter of time before sustained reduced no.'s at nearer 4M begin to impact on the pax experience.

I thought retail was doing quite well at NCL, so any source for this before it joins the urban myths?

Independent holiday operators used to use there own planes at NCL 5 years ago. over the last few years these charters have disappeared and they have chartered seats on TOM,TCX etc.

However this summer see's the start of these returning. We have A3,OHY and others this summer and hopefully this will cont in the next few years to come.

Could this be down to the reduction in capacity from TCX, TOM displacing the independents and also using third parties for their own flights?

what did BRU carry 5 years ago compared to the last 12 months of operation at ncl?? also can we get the figures for DXB and LHR, AMS for the last 5 years.

EK is doing very well...

I think BRU has gone up and down depending on frequency - so 5 years ago was a daily 146, and the numbers went up with increased freq on the EMB. Also, wasn't there a post a while ago which argued that the number of 'hub' passengers was relatively constant, and they shifted around between DXB, AMS, CDG, LHR depending on price, frequency, service (had a quick look but couldn't find it).