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Old 24th Aug 2010, 12:50
  #2321 (permalink)  
 
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Emirates

Interesting debate and like others I agree it is a tough one to call.

BHX has been mentioned due to its proximity, which of course is a
factor. Currently BHX sees 2 x 77W, with the evening service about
to change from the low density to the high density version on 1/9/10.

This will sort BHX's needs in the short-term as monthly passengers
are about 40000-45000 and this increase will give 54000 seats.

However what will EK do next and of course Cardiff might just be
part of the thinking.

There are rumours are a third BHX service, I think 3Q 2011 or an A380 sometime in mid to late 2012 when deliveries resume after 10-12 month
break from Q1 2011.

I am wondering if Cardiff will come into their thinking rather than a third
BHX service, as others have said they aim to serve as many markets as
possible.

As for Loco services, Norwegian offer Dubai from Stockholm and Oslo
starting at about £320 return and I believe frequencies have increased
with ARN showing six weekly in November.

However it would be futile to compare Norwegian's operation at ARN to
say a UK airline at Cardiff but it is being done at present from Europe.
Although of course the aircraft is a 737-800, which would not be part
of the equation from Cardiff.

I assume Jet2 75W's would make it there in a 200+ config?

Pete
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Old 24th Aug 2010, 13:51
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Interesting thought Pete - but why would anyone pay £320 to sit on a 738 in low cost configuration, with a stop in Scandinavia, when direct from BHX on the 773 with ICE, drinks and decent food, starts at £350?

I've not heard any rumours on a third BHX at this end, nor indeed putting the 388 on it. I would guess at a third MAN, or a second NCL are more likely. I would say that there are still soooo many holes in the EK network that they will want to fill those before they start more UK routes. Having said that, I would guess that a third BHX is much, much more likely than a first CWL.

Pity they are putting a two class 773 on. I used to get put in first quite a bit

TA
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Old 24th Aug 2010, 14:36
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Emirates

TA

The EK rumours are just that and were around the time of the 380 visit
last year and it was not from any official source.

Yes it certainly raised a few eyebrows when Norwegian announced
the Dubai route with a 73H and it does not sound very appealing.

I imagine Scotland will be high on the agenda with EK now getting
regular 90%+ load factors at GLA.

The other factor is aircraft, with regional airports usually starting with
the A332 but these are moving on in years and the utilisation is
allegedly very good leaving little room for expansion to new thinner
markets (I believe still no firm A333 order).

However there are still a few European routes left with the A332 on the
lunchtime service, with a couple left on the evening (MUC + DUS) and no doubt as more 777/380's arrive these services will be upgraded releasing the 332 but alas as you say Cardiff is probably well down the list.

Pete

Last edited by OltonPete; 24th Aug 2010 at 14:39. Reason: order of words
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Old 24th Aug 2010, 21:54
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TA,

To what extent are Emirates targeting transfer pax to the Indian sub-continent and beyond? I would have thought they formed a larger group than those heading for Dubai.
If so, TC/TUI would be fighting for a smaller market than EK are looking at.
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Old 24th Aug 2010, 23:40
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An excellent point that entirely slipped my mind (blame the post iftar gin and tonic....)

EK have stacks of through traffic (I'll confess I don't know the split, but I would bet most of EK's traffic is non-terminating at DXB), a charter will have none. That again offsets costs of the trip. Another point against a charter.

As an aside... Non network long haul carriers have a hard time in DXB. Remember SilverJet? No connecting traffic...

TA
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Old 25th Aug 2010, 13:49
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I believe TOM, MON and TCX would have no probs filling charter jets weekly to DXB from the likes of CWL or other regions, there is so much intrest in the place nowadays, and it can easily be made affordable to a larger market using charter companies, regardless of what grade the hotels, take a look at First Choice/Thomson holidays Tropical brochure, 90% of properties are 4* or above, regardless of destination, so I'm sure if they can make somewhere for example Aruba (having been it's a beautiful place but not a lot to do) work on weekly charters from LGW and MAN, then DXB would be all to easy to fill (with so much to see and do there), especially from the regions such as South Wales and South West where there is no EK service.
The situation as I see it is that the Dubai government so far have not warmed to charters regardless of where they come from (UK, Germany, Scandinavia etc) as they have their image to protect, however given the current economic climate and recent press about the bubble bursting in Dubai, they may find themselves in a situation where they have many empty hotels, shopping malls, theme parks that were built in the good times.
But now the money is drying up and peoples income being stretched they should maybe thinking along the lines of "how can we attract more tourists and get our local economy rolling again?" and the simple answer would be swallow their pride and let the charters in, if its priced and marketed correctly it will avoid becoming the next costa brava.
Canada is a similar situation looking at it, theres a few charters through the summer that battle it out with the scheduled airlines, and do so succesfully from the regions, a great example of this is EXT which has for numerous years operated a weekly Toronto in summer, in fact I believe a couple of years ago it had 2 weekly, not bad for a tiny regional airport.
Or even your very own CWL when Zoom operated weekly to YVR and YYZ they sold well(such a shame they went under), just showsthough if you market and price something correctly it will be succesful and you will attract the market you want for that product.
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Old 25th Aug 2010, 14:33
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Couple of thoughts....

There's not much sign of things drying up here, whatever the Daily Mail may say. Was in the Dubai Mall earlier, and it is busy - busier than it was last year in the middle of Ramadan and August. So I don't think that there is any rush towards panic.

Also - EK is still expanding rapidly; why do you need charters, when you have a national carrier that is able to offer low seat prices to the likes of Thomson etc (thanks to their lower cost base, multi cabin aircraft, network economics etc).

The more I think about it, the less likely I think it is.

TA
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Old 25th Aug 2010, 16:18
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I know very little about the Dubai market but YVR is my second home so travel there often. Except for BA and Air Canada there are no schedules to YVR from the UK and all the charters are for one operator Canadian Affair using Air Transat and Thomas Cook. To fly to YVR there is no other serious choice from the South West except drive/fly to LGW or LHR, connect via Europe or swim. Believe me I have spent many hours looking at the options.

EXT/YYZ is not economically viable to get to YVR and operates via LGW in one direction anyway. If anything was to be axed from the CA programme my guess would be this very short season route.

If you are prepared to fly in the car crash that is economy for between seven and ten hours, seats are available for less than £200 and a little over £600 in premium ( should be called better than economy really). There are always special offers and whilst loads appear pretty good I reckon that even at that price it is struggle to fill seats, out of the regions in particular.

Zoom and Globespan collapsed for a reason, the revenue just isn't there the way the product is structured but I believe a little refinement and there IS still a gap in the Canadian market that is waiting to be explored. I would have thought it unlikely you will see any more Canadian flights from CWL in the near future however but you never know in this business!.
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Old 26th Aug 2010, 09:03
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Flygloblespan at CWL

A question, Flybeglobsepan were planning a hamilton service from CWL, then they scrapped that plan? Why? Did they do more proving market research and find out it would not be viable or just not the aircraft on hand? But then they planned MCO but then they went bus.
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Old 26th Aug 2010, 10:09
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Flyglobespan were in financial trouble by the time the Hamilton was announced. Not a good time to be launching new routes. They failed entirely not long after...

TA
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Old 26th Aug 2010, 16:06
  #2331 (permalink)  
 
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i'm surprised that TS / TCX have not taken up the route with a 757.

both air transat and zoom had widebodies on the route.

surely even with this economic climate a 757 could be filled on a toronto route?

only wishful thinking but would be great to see AC on the route
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Old 4th Sep 2010, 01:22
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Angry

TwimAisLee, as much as one enjoys you as a chap, one wonders why you come over as so negative about business models and thinking that differ from your own. Please don't portray yourself on PPrune as blinkered, which I know you are not.

If there is a prospect of CWL-DBX, let's not knock it. Instead, let's talk about how it might work. In fact, why don't we discuss how the service entry of the 787/350 might open up MidEast and Indian sub-continent markets for Wales while making a return to Canada, Florida and the Caribbean less risky. Equally, the expat and other cultural links with Oz, NZ, HK and, yes, the Springboks should be properly researched for commercial potential: I have not seen any substantial work in this area.

There is more of a future for CWL than the B737 ancient or modern can provide. Logistically, that long runway has to be an advantage in some form - Zoom and Globespan didn't fail because of their Cardiff operations/ambitions; they just generally screwed up. All the facts show there's a valuable long-haul market from South Wales - just don't use it, Mr. Airline, to subsidise risky routes from elsewhere. Can't get the figures to stack up? Then double-drop with Belfast.

What's more, no matter how much today's CWL management seem unable to stop their downward spiral, there will inevitably be another management before long. PD and his mentor Mr del Rio will not survive a drop in pax that takes CWL to the borders of a million, IMHO. Barcelona is watching ... and probably getting rather depressingly low offers from prospective CWL purchasers. I personally expect a management buy-in within the next couple of years.

TwimLee, imagine a more entrepreneurial CWL. More industry savvy; better connected; holding a wider vision about airport investment (like the Schiphol Group?); taking a longer view than next year's budget. Maybe even prepared to invest in creating a strong home carrier to take on Easy and the Irish. And, ohmigod, perhaps ready to do deals with South West airports on double-drop and W patterns. How outrageous, since a river runs through it!

Cardiff shares many of the same traits and opportunities as Newcastle, yet is falling to the level of Bournemouth. It will take more than lo-co thinking to reverse this. It will take vision and drive.

Goodness, how annoyed am I?

Last edited by PeterP; 4th Sep 2010 at 01:47.
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Old 4th Sep 2010, 04:08
  #2333 (permalink)  
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I note the time your post was made, PeterP, along with the numerous hints at my real name, and assume that a bottle of something was involved.

You call it negative, I call it realistic. For all the hope in the world of an EK service to Cardiff, facts are facts. You failed to counter a single comment I made, except to call me negative. Ho hum.

All of us I am sure would like to see CWL prosper, and many of us, myself included, have faith that it could. However, it is a cold, hard world out there, economics are rather more important to airlines than keeping an airport and its catchment happy; and frankly, the wild abandon with which the CWL catchment seem to use BRS and other airports is hardly a ringing endorsement for the place.

CWL is NOT going to be able to support 'Oz, Nz, HK and... Springboks'. That is just pure fantasy. There are good reasons why, for example, BA operate the first only twice a day from London, and the second not at all. Even Manchester has no HK or S African links - except in the same manner as CWL, with a connection. How many CWL folks do it now? Enough for an airline to consider even considering it? I very much doubt it. When we see such routes from airports with much larger catchments, then let's start talking.

As for me not 'considering business models other than my own' - what nonsense is this? I am not intending to release my CV onto PPRuNe, but I have worked for regionals, national flag carriers, ACMI operators as well as low costs.

TwinAisle.

Last edited by TwinAisle; 4th Sep 2010 at 05:20.
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Old 4th Sep 2010, 18:07
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OK, TimAisle, a damn nice, late-night, Jamaican curried goat and bottle of Pinot did lead me to tease you a little!

But my main point is: after 30-odd years in this industry, I have learned one constant ... plus ça change. Air transport changes from year to year, based on technological advances, political expediency, economic development and much more. Anyone fixated on one business model is going to fail. Today's Ryanair is yesterday's Dan-air.

As you know, my first couple of years at CWL were substantially about long-haul. We had six long haul routes at the time, sadly now lost. I believe 787/350 technology is going to offer something new: thin medium/long-haul. That's a truly entrepeneurial opportunity - just as the EMB Bandit opened up thin short-haul for the founder members of ERA ... otherwise known as today's European regionals.

IMHO, those senior airline business managers who only look at today's business models are pretty damn blinkered. Sadly, I see your PPruNe comments as falling into this category. We must see the big picture and refuse to accept the status quo. (Actually, I quite enjoy Status Quo. Good air guitar stuff.)

A new management at CWL could produce a world-leading philosophy, connecting a third-level airport with major markets. All we industry professionals have talked about this for years. We have seen UK airports like Newcastle and Bristol achieve it. Time to roll up our sleeves and make this a norm.

Frankly, it's PpruNe's CWL thread negativity that promoted me to set up WAN. I'm delighted to say that nigh on 400 people appear to agree with me and that many thousands are watching what they say.

Last edited by PeterP; 4th Sep 2010 at 18:18.
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Old 4th Sep 2010, 19:17
  #2335 (permalink)  
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I do wonder about your current obsession with 'outing' people on here, PeterP. Many of us post under pseudonyms for good reasons. Respect that please.

Yes, business models do evolve over time. All things are possible in time. But you know what? I have better things to do than waste my time, and Danny's bandwidth discussing how many angels may dance on the head of a pin in five year's time.

Pushing WAN on here is not going to make you friends either, do you think the mods want you taking custom away from their advertisers?

Call me blinkered if you like, but I have to deal with real world airline issues today, not flights of fancy like your WAN comrades....

TA, bored with this, as are others, Peter. Out.
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Old 4th Sep 2010, 19:48
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Given that I do not understand the basis of your tirade, I'll ignore your ire and expand my point.

I began my airline career when regulation was the norm. Airlines had to apply for routes and fares. This then changed. So little airlines kicked off from places like Norwich and Humberside in the UK and many more from around the rest of Europe. They were possible because of Embraer and Dornier equipment. Suddenly Saab came along and life changed again ... astonishingly, Cardiff and Bristol could be connected with Amsterdam. Next there was the regional jet. Life changed yet again.

The 767 turned regional airports into short/medium haul opportunities. The 757 gave us the Caribbean and Sharm. Life changed again.

We now face yet another technological step forward with the 787/350. This gives Bristol, for example. non-stop full-load access to the US East Coast. Well done them. Yet CWL retains the advantage of a really long runway. If a/c can be operated profitably on thin routes because of this, airline managements should take a close look. Cut 10 per cent off a Bristol - New York fare by operating from CWL and you might well have a business.

My other drive is that, as most people know, I have little faith in CWL's present owners and their middle men. However, I have enough experience in business to know that their ascendancy is temporary. PD, CdR and SH will be gone soon, under the pressure of business logic.

Despite your hissy-fit, TA, I believe you would be a damn good MD for CWL. Come home from the mad-bugger-zone.
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Old 4th Sep 2010, 23:22
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Hearhear! TwinAisle for CWL MD!

You two stop arguing and agree to disagree...please! We know who you both are and we know you are both professionally respected gentlemen.
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Old 4th Sep 2010, 23:38
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Actually, I think the world of TA. We're just joshing!
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Old 5th Sep 2010, 01:10
  #2339 (permalink)  
 
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Thank god PeterP - I almost expected World War 3!

By the way, did you know bimbaby (WW) will fly from Cardiff (CWL) 4 times weekly DIRECT to Munich (MUC) this winter; from 31 October!

PP
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Old 5th Sep 2010, 08:12
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Had a quick search back through the thread but can't find a defintive answer to whether the shuttle bus from the station to the terminal is still running there was some talk of it being stopped. Was going to use the train when I go on my holidays on a few days. Just cos I can't work from CWL doesn't mean I can't support it by using it ! Anyway web site seems to suggest it is still there but just want to make sure before I find myself and family holidaying in Rhoose Point ! (as lovely as that would be of course).

P.S.
On the main thread of the topic at the moment and as I have said before on here and in other places. The way to get more services from your airport is make the ones you have profitable and well used. Hunting around airlines begging them to try this route or that route won't get you (you know who you are), or the airport anywhere (especially in the current climate). What you need is proof that CWL is somewhere you can make a bit of cash. What you need is for the Baby MUC flight and the Fly Be, Aer Arran network to work, get good loads, good yields and good reports to the companies.

What the airport and other interest groups can do is help to make that happen is tell people they exist.

If the airlines won't advertise and market their routes and push them hard emphasising CWL then what is stopping you doing it for them. I know the usual answer is "If they won't do it why should we?" But the point is the future needs the present to be a bit more profitable. Debating with the airport management how you can get a DXB service is total hot air and wishful thinking. What you should be saying is how can we help you get the word out to the people in Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Gloucester, Cheltenham, Bristol, etc.. that CWL offers x, y or z service come on use it.

Anyone can get stuff into the papers, the internet is a brilliant tool (iphone apps anyone), get some ads on local radio not just around South Wales, try and get some journalists interested. What's to stop you pursuading the Western Mail to run a "use your local airport campaign" - easier than getting EK to start a DXB route and you are seriously thinking about that. As much publicity as possible all day everyday.

The airlines won't do it because they don't really know local markets the airport and other parties should. Get bums on the those seats to MUC and it could be the start of another German route. Get bums on those seats and another will follow. Thats how it works and that's where a difference can be made.

Trying to pursuade airlines with anything other than positive results is pointless ! BUT to missquote the cornfield "If you fill them they will come".
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