BIRMINGHAM - 4

[Guest 112233]

Yep ! Max Oil

In terms of an exponential change as per the laws of a chaotic system (World Economics) - As we understand it.. It's always the small cracks at the edges that propagate with the afformentioned rate of change. - I bet Shakespere said that somewhere in his works - sadly "My home town" is deeply apposite "Thanks Bruce S" in this case.- Hence the visit - Offload "Risk" before it bites you and gain interlectual Capital in the process.

Those who can "play this game" are truly clever.

CAT III

[OltonPete]

derelicte

That is generally the one good point about suppressed demand, that outbound from BHX is usually a joy to travel through although I think inbound there are still a few moans but that could be said of most UK airports.

As for easyjet, I suppose like any airline they want or need a deal and the right offer has not been made. The excuse of bases to the north and south does hold some water but I still believe they are the right airline for BHX and if the right offer is made they will take it..........eventually.

BHX will never be able to compete with Southend for passenger charges but that should not mean that all hope is lost.

GF - Fair summary.

Mahan was always an airline on the edge at BHX due to various reasons but there could be a slight hope in the form of Turkish Airlines. The rumour is that they are looking to increase their Indian flights from Istanbul and Amritsar could be on the table as a new service.

Although Mahan would be a loss of an unusual carrier I would love to see TK as a viable alternative to ATQ. No sign of Turkmenistan mopping up the Mahan pax as they sent in a 738 tonight on the 757 flight.

There are a few extra flights stating this month with FR going 4 weekly from last Saturday on Monpellier and then adding back the third Sunday Dublin until winter. flybe increase some of their French flights from mid July although at the expense of business routes. Monarch add a Saturday night Palma and Tuesday late evening Tenerife and Baby even manage to squash in the odd extra flight on certain days (NCE NOC, FAO).

However it is still slim pickings even compared to last year although with Sky Wings operating about 13 flights a week from mid month should help a little.

Pete

[Guest 112233]

Dear OP

I respect your route analysis figs - I suspect that they actually spur a good many of the ppruners to think very hard indeed; about other airports too - How about a few comparitives on the domestic side ? - Its possibly an indicator of "Business pax useage" - thanks.

CAT III

[derelicte]

OP - tell EZY to get in there. Surely it is an opportunity for someone. As to the competition, you can't seriously tell me that (for example) Lulsgate fogport is a better alternative for all those rich and underemployed people in Gloucestershire. Honestly, it's a mystery that BHX is so underused. I'll be at Heathrow in two weeks and I know exactly how that will be as well. I suppose the answer is that there is only one thing worse than the free market, and that's government planning.

[MerchantVenturer]

you can't seriously tell me that (for example) Lulsgate fogport is a better alternative for all those rich and underemployed people in Gloucestershire.

It isn't. According to the last CAA survey (in 2008) only 5% of BRS's passenger numbers started or finished their journey in Gloucestershire.

I like BHX. I think it's a great airport having used it for the first time last year. It's certainly a mystery that an airport serving such a big population appears to be having a hard time expanding its network though I don't believe that BRS is doing any better in that regard despite comments to the contrary in this thread.

Incidentally, I've used BRS regularly as a passenger for over 30 years and have only been diverted once in that time because of weather, and during most of that time the Cat 3 ILS now on runway 27 didn't exist.

[LGS6753]

Speaking as an underemployed (not seriously rich) Gloucestershire resident, my first preference is I'm afraid Bristol, although both airports are equidistant. Second is Luton (not much further), then Heathrow.
As to a reason, I am generally travelling south or east, so going north to the airport seems counter-intuitive. I also see Birmingham as expensive for parking, and with fewer routes of interest to me than BRS/LTN.
I flew from BHX a few times some years ago, and had no real complaints. From here, Birmingham is a different world.....

[crewmeal]

YouTube - ‪Birmingham Airport - Hello World‬‏

Love the new 'Hello World" You Tube promotion. Apparently BHX has flights from the West Coast of the USA, South America, SE Asia and even China!

There are other points on it that I feel are misleading. See for yourselves.

[delta154]

Love the new 'Hello World" You Tube promotion. Apparently BHX has flights from the West Coast of the USA, South America, SE Asia and even China!

There are other points on it that I feel are misleading. See for yourselves.

That is desperation at its worst. To have to rely on connecting flights as your USP is really scraping the barrel.

And the tag of 'more carriers'? Hmmm. Since the re-branding, hasnt BHX lost Air Malta, Cyprus Airlines and now Mahan Air, as well as in gerneral loosing more carriers than gained in the last few years?

Very misleading.....

[GayFriendly]

Hello World

It's misleading as there is absolutely nothing else to shout about regarding the routes from BHX apart from the fact that you can fly via places to get to other places......although these kind of services should very much play a part at BHX (I myself have used LX, LH, TK and EK for hassle free journeys from BHX to reach distant parts of the world with just one connection) the airport is sadly lacking in the direct scheduled services department, no wonder the timetable is barely ever updated (and when it is there is a huge clutch at straws by including TOM flights as scheduled flights to try and fill up the pages!). As I have said in a previous post, BHX has ended up as a small spoke on the end of a few major hubs along with a few high volume and a smaller number of niche point to point flights and I can't see anyone in a position to offer new routes in the volume it now needs to regain a huge amount of lost ground to other airports

[Jamie2k9]

BHX - LDY to operate for winter on Sun, Mon, Wed and Fri.

[ATNotts]

GayFriendly:

BHX is as you say a small spoke, but on the end of pretty well all the major hubs in Europe, save Madrid.

Given the range of connections available from MAD to destinations not well served from AMS / CPH / FRA / MUC / ZRH / IST / BRU / CDG it is surprising that International Airlines (catchy name that!!) in the person of Iberia hasn't yet opened connecting services from BHX, daily to feed their South American network. After all South America, along with China and India is said to be where world growth is coming from in the next few years.

Before anyone chimes in, a connection by Ryanair or BMI Baby as about as much use as an ashtray on a motorcycle since you can't interline with them!

[OltonPete]

Domestic Passengers

CATIII-NDB

With Domestic pax I have to wait for the CAA punctuality stats to get the number of rotations and by the time they are published I have lost the will
usually but here is Jan - March and a compare between BHX & MAN. I chose
Manchester as BHX's big brother in pax terms. 2010 in brackets and load factors are estimated as I have guessed what routes have 195's and Q400's

Jan

Birmingham

ABZ 3899 (5772) 41 PAX 52%
BHD 21261 (12287) 62 PAX 51%
BFS NIL (7726)
LDY 3532 (3239) 98 PAX 52%
DND 1515 (1186) 18 PAX 56%
EDI 19459 (19304) 72 PAX 67%
GLA 15517 (15748) 54 PAX 68%
GCI 1859 (1960) SEE BELOW
JER 2284 (2379) 41 PAX 52%
INV 1700 (1478) 39 PAX 50%
IOM 2881 (3009) 32 PAX 41%
NCL 1062 (1005) 10 PAX 34%

Total 74969 (75093)

Manchester

LGW 17736 (17242) 70 PAX 46%
LHR 65978 (59766) 76 PAX ??
ABZ 9181 (6477) 26 PAX 44%
BHD 23732 (14419) 59 PAX 50-55%
BFS NIL (6634)
BRS 1200 (1170)
EDI 8785 (9039) 29 PAX 47%
EXT 2568 (2553) 36 PAX 46%
GLA 3478 (5062) 33 PAX 42%
GCI 3487 (3281) 31 PAX 47%
JER 4243 (3449) 47 PAX 47%
INV 2885 (2890) 30 PAX 39%
IOM 8292 (9047) 40 PAX 52%
MSE 615 (0) 18 PAX 23%
NQY 553 (647)
NWI 1912 (2079) 23 PAX 29%
PLH 1547 (1346) 25 PAX
SOU 7376 (7660) 42 PAX 35-42%

Total 163721 (152716)

I assume snow in 2010 caused the Manchester figures to rise sharply
in 2011 with few cancellations this year - or I can't add up.

Feb and Mar to follow once I see how this formats when I post it.

Pete

yes had to reformat

[OltonPete]

Domestic Passengers

Just to confirm the monthly pax figure and number of rotations are from the CAA and the load factors are just estimated. The totals might not be accurate as there might be charter pax and fear of flying flights.

Feb

Birmingham

ABZ 5447 (6749) 43 PAX 55%
BHD 23210 (14720) 65 PAX 55%
BFS NIL (8877)
LDY 4204 (3885) 131 PAX 70%
DND 1615 (1405) 20 PAX 61%
EDI 21465 (24639) 71 PAX 65%
GLA 16505 (17310) 54 PAX 67%
GCI 1989 (2185) SEE BELOW
JER 2460 (2296) 47 PAX 61%
INV 1832 (1984) 42 PAX 53%
IOM 3063 (3513) 35 PAX 45%
NCL 1215 (1220) 11 PAX 37%

Total 83005 (88791) -6%

Manchester

Feb

LGW 17878 (19948) 80 PAX 53%
LHR 63553 (68770) 81 PAX ??
ABZ 9711 (7005) 28 PAX 46%
BHD 23732 (14419) 59 PAX 55-60%
BFS NIL (6634)
BRS 1200 (1170)
EDI 9402 (11371) 27 PAX 46%
EXT 2874 (3284) 35 PAX 45%
GLA 3266 (5733) 32 PAX 41%
GCI 3742 (3598) 35 PAX 53%
JER 5083 (4711) 58 PAX 60%
INV 3193 (3454) 35 PAX 44%
IOM 8506 (10131) 42 PAX 53%
MSE 537 (0) 17 PAX 22%
NQY 2093 (741)
NWI 1859 (2471) 22 PAX 28%
PLH 1398 (1670) 25 PAX
SOU 7667 (9521) 41 PAX 42-45%

Total 163721 (174631) -6.5%

Birmingham

March
ABZ 7207 (8370) 45 PAX 57%
BHD 26500 (18203) 65 PAX 57%
BFS NIL (8846)
LDY 4511 (4158) 133 PAX 70%
DND 1786 (1661) 20 PAX 60%
EDI 25967 (29898) 73 PAX 68%
GLA 19358 (21833) 58 PAX 73%
GCI 2471 (2751) SEE BELOW
JER 2715 (3310) 49 PAX 63%
INV 2151 (2595) 40 PAX 51%
IOM 3596 (4145) 37 PAX 47%
NCL 1513 (1439) 11 PAX 40%

Total 97775 (107203) - 8.8%

Manchester

March

LGW 19921 (21634) 80 PAX 54%
LHR 70502 (74499) 83 PAX ??
ABZ 11642 (8280) 30 PAX 49%
BHD 27671 (20596) 62 PAX 55-60%
BFS NIL (8280)
BRS 1443 (1540)
EDI 10996 (13762) 27 PAX 45%
EXT 3335 (4223) 37 PAX 48%
GLA 4368 (7487) 32 PAX 40%
GCI 4514 (4936) 38 PAX 57%
JER 5481 (6470) 58 PAX 59%
INV 3663 (4260) 35 PAX 44%
IOM 10139 (11642) 41 PAX 53%
MSE 557 (0) 16 PAX 21%
NQY 2570 (1262)
NWI 2346 (2814) 23 PAX 30%
PLH 1776 (1932) 39 PAX
SOU 7667 (9521) 42 PAX 45-55%

Total 189874 (205880) -8%

BHX & MAN totals both down similar amounts in Feb & March.

Surprising how some routes survive and still have competition.
They must have a lot of late booking high-yielding pax.

I think one stat I worked out was MAN-ABZ with 226 BMIR movements
and 163 flybe flights. The pax figure despite a healthy increase still
could have had every single BMIR flight go empty and still not fill the
flybe aircraft. Simplistic but the kind of things FoE jump on.

If there are a lot of late booking high-yielding fares (as there used to be)
then flybe are probably having a good time on BHX-GLA & EDI. I think
I can see why MSE - MAN finished and those Norwich loads are certainly
light in the first three months.

Pete

[McGoonagall]

This may be a bit simplistic but if and when the runway is extended and BHX can smooth the international arrivals procedure out, then with three trains an hour to central London it could be an attractive proposition to arrive there.

I can not be beyond the wit for a deal to be struck with Beardies bunch to provide cut price first class travel from B'ham International to Euston. If it could be done then arrive, immigration, transit to station, hours journey, fed and watered, London in maybe a couple of hours or so from wheels down. It could compare well to busy times at LHR & LGW.

Or is that just a load of bollix?

[Guest 112233]

Thanks Olton Pete

I'm glad that you were able to give everyone the figures from both MAN & BHX - OK every thing depends on Yeald - Is the APD affecting travel internally in the UK ? - I'm no friend of MOL but there may be something in what he says.

You probably guessed why I asked about the figs, as they might give a pointer to the state of regional domestic travel (I bet mainly business) in the UK. LDY being a possible exeption. EDI being the biggest market (Business & VFR).

I know [Regional] internal air travel outside Easyjet & Ryan Air [may be] mainly preserve of the businesss community

As an uneducated guess - Things look fragile but could be worse. I hope the airlines can maintain frequencies or else I think its the end in the long term.

Thanks again OP.

CATIII

[compton3bravo]

International arrivals at birmingham

Interesting synopsis McGoonagall but in my experience when I have travelled back to the UK - especially from North America - US citizens want to fly into London (preferably Heathrow) even if their are airports closer to where their final destination is. Once when I was on a Virgin flight coming back from Miami we were diverted to Manchester because of bad weather and practically all the Americans on board were saying ''where is Manchester''. They probably knew whereabouts Paris was but had no idea where Manchester was or probably Birmingham.
I have some friends - yes just a few! - who travel to New York regularly on Continental from Bhm on business (they live in Northamptonshire) but of the Americans they have had conversation with they say they have been specifically to an exhibition at the NEC or work for a US company in Bhm. It seems to be the London thing unfortunately and personally I do not think the high speed rail link will be built anyway - too many influential people living on the route old boy!

[jabird]

ATNotts - totally agree about MAD (also an opportunity for MAN, EDI..) - but it isn't just about interlining. I doubt BHX-MAD for onward to South America is much more than 10 seats / day? So you need to add in conx to Africa, maybe an alternate route for some of the USA. I still don't think we're filling a plane - but then you ask why one of Europe's major capitals isn't linked to BHX for O&D in its own right? MAD is a viable business and city break destination - but would it need a 320/eqv or something smaller with multiple frequencies to make it work.

And I will trot out the usual scepticism about the runway extension (new routes would be thin, much more easily served from London), compared with much more needy European capitals (BER, ATH, ARN, OSL).

McGoonagall - routes into BHX are always going to be thinner than into LHR or LGW. In my experience, there is also a regional premium to access BHX, especially from the US. It would have to be a very attractive deal to make people want to fly into 'London - Birmingham'.

(compton3bravo - see Eurostar thread - but there is more ability to influence at each end of hs2, the whole idea of the current proposed route is that it avoids big population areas. If it runs out of steam it will be because it can't pay for itself)

[GayFriendly]

FR have finally announced new base at MAN, 4 based and 26 new routes by summer 2012. Of course these include some prime ones that they could (but for whatever reason don't) offer from BHX including FCO, BGY and MAD, plus some already tried from BHX incl BIQ, TRF and HHN.

Obviously a deal struck with MAG, so can we now expect more expansion at EMA too, or a transfer of routes leaving only a limited Midlands offering by FR? This is awful news for BHX, I can't see any more FR expansion now with BHX instead being squeezed by much bigger and brighter FR bases at LPL, BRS, EMA and now MAN.......and there is simply no one else waiting in the wings for BHX, with EZY and LS (IMO the only other contenders to seriously offer new routes development at BHX) also being in bed with the MAG group.

I think we have to accept that BHX is becoming primarily a spoke into bigger hubs airport relying on a few full service carriers with a smattering of bucket and spade and a few tried and tested thin routes like LYS, HAM making up the timetable. Unless of course WW can come up with something big - but with LH at the helm I doubt this very much and lets face it it would have to be big (another 3 - 5 based units). We are sadly heading to having an airport that may look the part but does not have the European routes to reflect Birminghams (some may say alleged) second city status in the UK.

[OltonPete]

FR/LS

Well at least there is a rumour of Jet2, there hasn't even been any
of them recently (credible) .

However back to reality of a sorts, not quite on the scale of Manchester but
some winter additions from Ryanair. I say additions they could just be replacing other flights that are not operating compared to last winter.

BHX-ALC up to four weekly with Monday morning added which compares to winter 2009/10 I believe and one extra from last winter.

Also the Wednesday Arrecife has been saved but it changes to a BHX based aircraft making it three a week, up one from last winter.

The Thursday Malaga has also appeared making that three a week which equals last winter.

Added to the recently released LDY, it is looking a bit healthier.

Routes which might operate but still not released - BTS, BZG & GRO.

No sign of Malta but there again about this time last week it appeared
LDY had gone as well.

Pete

[jabird]

GF,

I think the Ryanair deal is more about MAN than MAG - something good offered following previous spats - EMA grew despite these. MAN has always been able to have a bit of an attitude - it is big enough to attract a wide range of carriers and far enough away from London to attract the lucrative long haul stuff.

So not bad news for BHX as such - just a lack of good news.

Re: LS - I would suggest an empty airfield a little further up the A45 would welcome them with open arms, and no concerns over runway length (not sure about their 738s though). The LS forum suggests they are happy at EMA though and neither BHX nor CVT are on the radar.