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Old 20th Jan 2011, 19:19
  #3841 (permalink)  
 
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Hassaan,

How's your, upon my behalf, petition for a 4 engined BHX-Philippines route doing?
Stuck at five signatures. I would advise you to try to get more signatures yourself by handing out flyers at the airport etc. My AA petition stands at 81 signatures with loads of criticism. It would be great to see BHX being an international carriers' only UK destination, the other being Mahan Air. If they were ever going to start a new route soon, they would start it when the summer time table starts at the end of March.

Looking at those PAX figures, Air India did better than PIA and Emirates with 85%. Probably why BHX handled a record number of passengers in 2008.

I'll take this seriously. I won't become over ambitious as to what PIA would do. I do hope they don't axe the route. To be honest it does need some expansion. They've been stuck with four weekly flights with B777's for almost two years now.
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Old 20th Jan 2011, 19:30
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Hassan13, I think Phileas might actually have a life!!
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Old 20th Jan 2011, 19:36
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I was just saying what he COULD do, not should.
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Old 20th Jan 2011, 20:54
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He could. But it would be utterly fruitless.
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Old 20th Jan 2011, 21:27
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Perhaps as utterly fruitless as petitioning to the attention of the many Aviation Executives of Chicago of an (AA) airline that is actually based/located in Texas!

Oooh, some feedback from the said petition:

Coco The Clown: Birmingham to Chicago on an American Airlines B777? Can I use that in my stage show? It's the funniest, daftest thing I've heard for YEARS !!!

Jeff Smisek: A direct blimp service via Iceland would be suitable.

Ivor Biggun: To the creator of this 'petition'. American Airlines are not going to relauch direct flights to Birmingham UK from Chicago like you suggest. Also you have been posting the links to this on certain forums with a title alluding to the petition having been set up by Birmingham Airport. It has NOT been set up by Birmingham Airport, and it is unlikely Birmingham Airport are going after a flight that failed miserably nearly ten years ago. Give up with this silly idea.

Duncan Donut: It appears that, in your desperation to afford this ridiculous petition any credibility, you or someone else has resorted to stealing peoples' airliners.net identities to make what appear to be credible support for your campaign. The notion that AA will ever put a 777 into BHX on regular service to ORD is nothing more than your wet dream.

And finally:

R Branson: I might bring my airline in and make Birmingham a major intercontinental hub. So what if there is not the population to support it, this petition has convinced me that we, like all airlines, should be completely philanthropic and listen to 13 year old spotters when making crucial business decisions.
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Old 20th Jan 2011, 21:43
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19 January 2011
Bosses at Birmingham Airport have backed calls from London Mayor, Boris Johnson, to realise the potential of existing airports to ease the burden of constrained capacity at Heathrow.
Mr Johnson, speaking on Tuesday (18th January), cited the growing problem of limited capacity in and around the capital and called for boldness in addressing the issue. One of the proposed solutions is tapping into the vast potential of Birmingham as an alternative to airports in the south-east, which would be even more logical when Birmingham Airport is linked to High Speed Rail.
Birmingham Airport (amongst other major regional Airports) is a Strategic National Asset which, with emerging Government thinking, can easily form part of the solution to the over-heated south-east. There is spare capacity at Birmingham - enough capacity to take another nine million passengers immediately – and more than another 21 million passengers in future years, as it improves its capability with a modest runway extension, for which Planning Consent has already been given.

This spare capacity, allied with High-Speed 2, which will bring Birmingham within 38 minutes of the capital – or position Birmingham in ‘Zone 4’ of the Underground map - negate the need for further expansion elsewhere. Even now Euston is only 70 minutes from Birmingham Airport and many in the south-east can probably get to Birmingham as quickly as they could reach Heathrow's check-in desks. Significantly, the Mayor singled out the future connectivity of the Midlands as a key factor in meeting the growing demand for aviation.
Paul Kehoe, Birmingham Airport’s Chief Executive, said, “The government has already decided against airport expansion elsewhere and has indicated that existing spare capacity should be utilised. A more efficient use of regional airports, linked to High-Speed Rail, will ensure that opportunities and created across the UK, rather than draw jobs out of the regions and deliver them to the south-east.
“In these difficult times it makes sense to use and sensibly improve the assets that you have, rather than building whole new runways and demolishing whole villages. Those days are over.
“Aviation has its part to play in an integrated transport system, and rail must play a part in distributing the demand for International Gateways, to airports that have capacity. Birmingham is a prime example as it is just over an hour from London.
“Birmingham Airport is a vital yet underused piece of National strategic infrastructure. It is already the Midlands' premier international gateway.”
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Old 21st Jan 2011, 06:51
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expecting to shift 7500-9000 pax a month via Istanbul
is a total non-starter
I work out that based on a 30 day month, it equates to 300 pax. Filter that down to 200 pax per day, because, if BHX does get dropped, some pax may defect to MAN/LHR/EK/W5 and so on.
Im sure if TK ran a 10 weekly B738 or daily A333 to IST, it could mop up the pax.
Im also sure that PIA could 'sweeten' pax by twisting the scenario and say they now have a daily connection to BHX rather than 4 weekly.

As the last three months figures show an EK third
flight is hardly needed at present, this of course might change in the
next 9-12 months
Looking at past trends, BHX will need 6 or so months of constand 90% loads as well as a good yields to upgrade service/frequency.
For example, MAN is next in line for a 3rd daily service and a 2nd A380, this is due to LF being around the 90-95% mark and high LF in the F cabin too.

There is spare capacity at Birmingham - enough capacity to take another nine million passengers immediately – and more than another 21 million passengers in future years, as it improves its capability with a modest runway extension, for which Planning Consent has already been given
Looking at this quote from the news article, just how does some extra tarmac at the end of your runway increase your CAPACITY by 21million?
I can understand if it was an extended terminal, or more parking stands, but a slighty longer runway?
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Old 21st Jan 2011, 12:15
  #3848 (permalink)  
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It would be great to see BHX being an international carriers' only UK destination
"It would be great......"

Why are we giving this deluded spotter the time of day? I assume Hassaan has heard of a rather large city called London, located to the south of BHX.

Time to put this nonsense to bed, I have nothing whatsoever against BHX (have used it myself on a few occasions) but this daft petition is nothing more than entertainment value. Any airline executives reading it will be mildly amused by it, but will it affect their route planning decisions?!
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Old 21st Jan 2011, 13:21
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It's only given kudos by the amount of posters obsessed by it...........
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Old 21st Jan 2011, 14:55
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Its about time the mods stepped in and knocked this on the head.

Centre cities
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Old 21st Jan 2011, 15:16
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Call 100, Centre Cities

Agree with both of you, time to end it.
If he really is 13 years old he should perhaps be steered towards the spotters thread.
That said he doesn't deserve some of the nasty comments he's received from some posters.
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Old 21st Jan 2011, 15:43
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I would be supprised to see PIA pull out of BHX given the success of this service. High loads and the fact that birmingham has one of the highest pakistani communities in europe. The BHX operation is almost the same size a the manchester service. Birmingham does have a larger pakistani community than manchester and leeds. According to posts on this forum BHX - ISB attracts 7000-9000 a month, I dont think PIA will be in a hurry to give up this route. IF PIA are going cut services then it will be the ones that are not profitable and no future prospect of growth. I dont think BHX has that problem in this area ,I might be wrong. Leeds is a small operation and glasgow was to. GLA was stopped because it was not making any money. There's no official news on PIA website about this supposed deal with turkish airlines. Just media speculation. Just have to wait and see!
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Old 21st Jan 2011, 19:38
  #3853 (permalink)  
 
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Rodchester:

Birmingham does have a larger pakistani community than manchester and leeds
Not quite right. Manchester ahas 35.23% of the UK population in its catchment, whilst BHX has 24.40% of the UK population in its catchment.

The BHX operation is almost the same size a the manchester service
Again, no, MAN has 15 Pakistan frequencies per week on PK/ED, whilst BHX has 4.

According to posts on this forum BHX - ISB attracts 7000-9000 a month, I dont think PIA will be in a hurry to give up this route
Like I stated above, over a 30 day month, its 300 pax, that, if BHX was pulled filtration to other services could be filtrated down to 200 per day. That could easily be mopped up by a TK increase of some sort. Also, loads of 79% arnt brilliant, put it this way, 79% LF means that nearly a quater of seats from BHX wernt sold.

There's no official news on PIA website about this supposed deal with turkish airlines. Just media speculation. Just have to wait and see!
But the 'media speculation' quotes a number of statements from PIA management, so, maybe a re-read of the articles is in order?
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Old 21st Jan 2011, 20:22
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wanna_be_there
Not quite right. Manchester ahas 35.23% of the UK population in its catchment, whilst BHX has 24.40% of the UK population in its catchment.
Can you please let me know where you have got the stats from?
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Old 21st Jan 2011, 20:35
  #3855 (permalink)  
 
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PIA

If it makes money I am sure it will stay but only time will tell.

BHX & MAN to ISB had similar load factors in December if my figures
are reliable.

Based on 144 seats for the Air Blue (unfortunately only wiki to rely on, groan),
329 for the 772, 393 for the 77W and 195 is for the A310. The latter is a guess, as BHX has not had A310's for ages and I have lost my records of the seating capacity.

For December Manchester ISB - 12886

26 x 319, 10 x 77W, 18 x 772 and 18 x 310 (from Libhomeradar).

Load factor 78% - okay only one month and my seating figures
could be slightly out similar.

BHX was actually closing in on LHR-ISB - December 1400 difference.

Pete

Last edited by OltonPete; 21st Jan 2011 at 20:36. Reason: spelling
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Old 22nd Jan 2011, 01:38
  #3856 (permalink)  
 
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Just want to reply to wanna be there's comment.

When i was talking about catchment area i was refering to the Pakistani population and not the general population. Birmingham and the midlands does have a higher population of people of pakistani descent than manchester and the northwest. 100000 in b'ham alone.

As for passenger numbers manchester has PIA & air blue flying the route, so common sense would tell you that Manchester is going to handle more passengers. If you look at just the PIA service alone Man/bhx probley have the same loads give or take, which olton mention before.

As for load factors 79% is not brilliant and not bad. No service flies a full loads especially in these harsh economic times. That load factor was for december and does not reflect the whole year since previous loads have being much higher and not far behind Heathrow's which was mention on another forum. Thats not bad! in my opinion, considering bHX distance from Heathrow.

As for TK well if you compare there loads to PIA from BHX that speaks for itself.
I will say this again on the PIA website there is no officail mention of this plan. Some of the routes i can't see PIA giving up like Newyork, but in this climate nothing is impossible!

Finally if BHX - ISB is profitable and doing well with good future prospects then it should stay. If not it will go, simple as that! The Same will apply to manchester and any other route that PIA has, Glasgow service has already bitten the dust.

As olton says only time will tell!
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Old 22nd Jan 2011, 05:04
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When i was talking about catchment area i was refering to the Pakistani population and not the general population. Birmingham and the midlands does have a higher population of people of pakistani descent than manchester and the northwest. 100000 in b'ham alone
.

What are you on about? If MAN has a higher percentage of the UK population than BHX, then that means MAN has a higher population. For example, if I have 10% of 100 people, then I have 10 people, but if I have 5% of people, I have 5 people. Therefore, my number is higher?!?!

As for passenger numbers manchester has PIA & air blue flying the route, so common sense would tell you that Manchester is going to handle more passengers. If you look at just the PIA service alone Man/bhx probley have the same loads give or take, which olton mention before.
Air Blue at the moment only accounts for 3 rotations, on an A319 at that, so, PIA still has twice as many movements at MAN.

Anyway, Im not turning this into another MAN-vs-BHX debate, but your drawing on innacuracies as to why PIA should stay.

It probably wont get dropped, as its going to be easier for them to run BHX rather than drop it. If any routes do get dropped in the UK, I think its only going to be LBA as its easier to consolidate into MAN for them.
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Old 22nd Jan 2011, 08:56
  #3858 (permalink)  
 
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I think that as far as PIA (and for that matter Air India) are concerned, politics are more important in reaching decisions as to whether this or that route is opened or closed.

I don't pretend to understand anything about how democracy (?) operates in Pakistan, supposing that the two words are not an oxymoron. However, with such large ex pat populations around both Birmingham and Manchester, who may have the vote in elections back home, the political cost of offending voters living abroad by allowing the cancellation of direct air services home may prove very influential in deciding whether or not PIA services to either airport would be scrubed.

I'm not generally a betting man, but I would put a small bet on both airports retaining their PIA services on that basis alone, before economics even raise their head.
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Old 22nd Jan 2011, 10:00
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ATNotts

I totally agree with you I don`t think BHX or MAN will get dropped due to
the power of the Pakistani population in both catchment areas

Looking at the pax figures for MAN and LBA it would seem as the Pakistani
community have given up on Leeds and transfered to MAN as LBA is 29%down
and MAN 13% up on a much large passenger base


Ian B
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Old 22nd Jan 2011, 14:13
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When i was talking about catchment area i was refering to the Pakistani population and not the general population. Birmingham and the midlands does have a higher population of people of pakistani descent than manchester and the northwest. 100000 in b'ham alone.

Rodchester,

You're quite correct in saying the West Midlands has a much larger population of people of Pakistani descent than the North West, indeed 123,000 was the figures at the last census in the city of Birmingham alone, this compares to a population of 83,000 poeple of Pakistani descent living in the county of Greater Manchester. The difference however the airports is that MAN lies in the middle of Merseyside, Gtr Manchester, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, North Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Derbyshire and Staffordshire so the actual catchment of the airport is much bigger than that available to BHX. Don't have the time to work out the heritage Pakistani population in all those areas combined, but it will be considerably higher than that of the West Midlands.

Hope this helps.
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