CARDIFF - 3
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Low prices could be the key here.
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Have heard that flybe are looking at other routes to start next year Paris being one of them, though nothing confirmed yet. I havent heard anything on Nice? What too about this 4th ww aircraft, has been confirmed for every base in ww portfolio
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Heard they(FLYBE) ARE looking at Paris,loads of routes for them to take on Low prices could be the key here.
It will be a choice on this route between low fares and high frequency. The route needs frequency for the business traveller, and connections.
At the risk of being abused on here for being the ghost at the feast, can I just present an alternative viewpoint on flybe's decision to start something (hub? base? destination?) at Cardiff.
This may turn out to be one of the worst strategic decisions the airport has made for a long time.
My reason for saying this comes from many years of business and strategic planning in the airline business. One of the key profit drivers in the airline game is average sector length. I won't bore anyone on here with why that is, but it is a fact. The lower the average sector length, the better the bottom line tends to look. This is why the likes of baby, and easy, and Ryan, fly some short routes - it lowers the ASL, while routes like PRG, AGP tend to drive it up.
Now - if someone like flybe is going to start flying routes like BHD, then the opportunities for a new carrier to build a sensible network out of CWL - with nice routes like BUD, CIA etc, balanced with some short ones like BFS - get diminished.
By all means encourage flybe to do, say, CDG, BRU - but the moment they start looking at DUB, EDI, GLA, NCL, BHD/BFS etc, expect other potential low cost entrants to forget CWL as a base. If what flybe does is makes life hard for baby, and stuffs up Eastern - is that really Cardiff's gain?
What CWL really needs is someone who is committed to the place, and sees it as home, rather than just a chunk of tarmac to make a quick buck on... Who is prepared to build an easyjet style network, with long sectors balanced against short ones.
Price wars are all very well for the consumer - but they are disastrous for the industry. And flybe may very well spark off a price war (bet baby are over the moon about BHD, expect them to fight back - baby's CASK is almost certainly better than flybe's, so could drive them off it). Worst case is that baby pull off some short routes (because flybe are on them) and that could compromise their whole Cardiff operation. That would be in no-one's interest, least of all Cardiff's.
There is a place for flybe at Cardiff. But the airport would do well to look at what is best for the airport in the long run, rather than just trying to get someone to use the place. My guess is that these routes will run with aircraft based elsewhere, which will vanish like the morning mist in time....
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Eastern, oh yes that extremely expensive airline that offers one route out of Cardiff who can't pull the loads in to Newcastle as Air Wales did, what an asset.
BMI Baby who promised much but have yet to fully deliver, where are all the routes they promised and could really make successful?
And now a new Airline that has turned around Exeter and Southampton and somehow that is bad news
BMI Baby who promised much but have yet to fully deliver, where are all the routes they promised and could really make successful?
And now a new Airline that has turned around Exeter and Southampton and somehow that is bad news
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Flower, why don't you read my whole post, rather than pick out individual points?
What if there was an airline - perhaps Jet2 (this is rumour, I have no idea what they are thinking) - that was looking to build a proper base at Cardiff, with a multitude of new routes to new destinations for Cardiff - but was now looking at Cardiff less favourably because it would be potentially up against flybe on all the short routes it would need to create a balanced network?
Why is flybe having a pop at baby? You may be right in saying that they have not built the base well at CWL - but is taking them on REALLY in CWL's best interest? Would THAT be good news if baby said "stuff this for a game of soldiers" after being beaten up on, say, BFS, EDI, GLA by flybe?
My post was intended to put across a slightly different viewpoint, as opposed to the "flybe is the second coming" type of posts on here.
CWL's biggest problem is not the road, nor the catchment area, nor the stairs, nor the building site, nor the departure lounge. It is the management.
What if there was an airline - perhaps Jet2 (this is rumour, I have no idea what they are thinking) - that was looking to build a proper base at Cardiff, with a multitude of new routes to new destinations for Cardiff - but was now looking at Cardiff less favourably because it would be potentially up against flybe on all the short routes it would need to create a balanced network?
Why is flybe having a pop at baby? You may be right in saying that they have not built the base well at CWL - but is taking them on REALLY in CWL's best interest? Would THAT be good news if baby said "stuff this for a game of soldiers" after being beaten up on, say, BFS, EDI, GLA by flybe?
My post was intended to put across a slightly different viewpoint, as opposed to the "flybe is the second coming" type of posts on here.
CWL's biggest problem is not the road, nor the catchment area, nor the stairs, nor the building site, nor the departure lounge. It is the management.
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I absolutely agree with flower, bmibaby have only used CWL as a place to make a bit of money and not once have they regarded us as a base, thats just lip service and everyone knows! EMA have 5 baby a/c already and here CWL is struggling to gain the 4th! I regularly used Ncl with Air Wales but since Eastern came along with their massive fares I've been using easy at BRS, and now its likely I'll have to use easy for the glasgow route because baby have moved it down to one a day! What a joke! And the fact is what other airline is going to bother implementing a mixed route network at CWL except flybe ever? not FR, never easy because of the proximity to BRS and unlikely to be Jet2 either, so its probably going to be the best thing to happen at CWL for a while, if flybe start a proper route network from here.
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bmibaby have only used CWL as a place to make a bit of money and not once have they regarded us as a base
And I am sure the many local people who WORK for baby at CWL call it a base.
offers one route out of Cardiff who can't pull the loads in to Newcastle as Air Wales did
And the fact is what other airline is going to bother implementing a mixed route network at CWL except flybe ever?
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Twin Aisle i didn't cherry pick at all, just find your post curious.
The very conversation about FlyBe and BMI Baby took place in the works kitchen this morning, we all agreed that either it would finally make BMI Baby management pull their socks up in terms of giving Cardiff some decent routes and increased frequency or if FlyBe really took them on then yes of course they could withdraw. BMI Baby are a great airline and i enjoy flying them and working with their crews, but the locals aren't making the decisions and here we are some years later with no real change or dynamism as to how they operate out of Cardiff. Compare them to the EasyJet operation out of Bristol, look how Easy have given the flying public what they want whilst we have stayed stagnant
I also take it Twin Aisle you are equally not privy to any figures (having a friend who flies for them does not give you access to commercial in confidence figures after all) , I know all about yields etc you have explained it enough times, but when the locals abandon Cardiff to go to Bristol as they can fly to Newcastle about 8 times for the price Eastern charge for 1 trip out of Cardiff then that isn't good for the airport.
One route does not a hub make and maybe FlyBe will only have the one route, but with so many possible routes which could be taken up maybe it just will be Cardiff's future
The very conversation about FlyBe and BMI Baby took place in the works kitchen this morning, we all agreed that either it would finally make BMI Baby management pull their socks up in terms of giving Cardiff some decent routes and increased frequency or if FlyBe really took them on then yes of course they could withdraw. BMI Baby are a great airline and i enjoy flying them and working with their crews, but the locals aren't making the decisions and here we are some years later with no real change or dynamism as to how they operate out of Cardiff. Compare them to the EasyJet operation out of Bristol, look how Easy have given the flying public what they want whilst we have stayed stagnant
I also take it Twin Aisle you are equally not privy to any figures (having a friend who flies for them does not give you access to commercial in confidence figures after all) , I know all about yields etc you have explained it enough times, but when the locals abandon Cardiff to go to Bristol as they can fly to Newcastle about 8 times for the price Eastern charge for 1 trip out of Cardiff then that isn't good for the airport.
One route does not a hub make and maybe FlyBe will only have the one route, but with so many possible routes which could be taken up maybe it just will be Cardiff's future
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http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0300b...name_page.html
The above is a link to a report by an academic from the University of Glamorgan, who you may possible know TA with your Welsh aviation links.
He cites a recent CAA report stating that passenger growth rates have not increased since the ten years before low cost airlines came on the scene. It’s just that the growth has transferred mainly to the low cost airlines leaving traditional and especially charter carriers standing still.
Much of the report compares CWL to BRS and one thing the author does assert is that most of the increased pax travel in the low cost sector is by middle or higher income groups, people not in such great supply on the Welsh side of the Severn compared to the English.
This being the case, he wonders whether CWL has done the best it can given the disparity in relative prosperity between the two areas, although 500,000 Welsh people use BRS each year (around 10% of that airport's total throughput) because services are not available or not at a price or frequency required at their home airport.
Would not the smaller aircraft used by Flybe be more suited to some of the mainly leisure routes that might be hoped for than the larger equipment of the likes of Jet2? EXT, with a smaller catchment than BRS, seems to have done rather well with this model.
I do realise that Flybe would also have to operate the lower sector lengths as well (for the reasons you point out) and on the EDI for example they might well need at least an Emb 195-sized aircraft, something that might be too big for CIA or BUD (this one has been dropped by easy from BRS by the way because although loads were good presumably the yield wasn't).
I do take the points you have made and can see your argument does not lack merit and is clearly made.
Interestingly, when easyJet decided to go head to head on some of Flybe’s BRS routes, Flybe quickly threw in the towel.
Would this not happen at CWL if baby flexed its muscles or even if Jet2 came along or would Flybe’s business model be more appropriate, bearing in mind the report I quoted.
You have said, rightly, many times that running an airline is not a game where local enthusiasts' wishes have to be taken into account, but a business where money has to be made.
Thanks for a different view (to me anyway) - it is something to mull over.
The above is a link to a report by an academic from the University of Glamorgan, who you may possible know TA with your Welsh aviation links.
He cites a recent CAA report stating that passenger growth rates have not increased since the ten years before low cost airlines came on the scene. It’s just that the growth has transferred mainly to the low cost airlines leaving traditional and especially charter carriers standing still.
Much of the report compares CWL to BRS and one thing the author does assert is that most of the increased pax travel in the low cost sector is by middle or higher income groups, people not in such great supply on the Welsh side of the Severn compared to the English.
This being the case, he wonders whether CWL has done the best it can given the disparity in relative prosperity between the two areas, although 500,000 Welsh people use BRS each year (around 10% of that airport's total throughput) because services are not available or not at a price or frequency required at their home airport.
Would not the smaller aircraft used by Flybe be more suited to some of the mainly leisure routes that might be hoped for than the larger equipment of the likes of Jet2? EXT, with a smaller catchment than BRS, seems to have done rather well with this model.
I do realise that Flybe would also have to operate the lower sector lengths as well (for the reasons you point out) and on the EDI for example they might well need at least an Emb 195-sized aircraft, something that might be too big for CIA or BUD (this one has been dropped by easy from BRS by the way because although loads were good presumably the yield wasn't).
I do take the points you have made and can see your argument does not lack merit and is clearly made.
Interestingly, when easyJet decided to go head to head on some of Flybe’s BRS routes, Flybe quickly threw in the towel.
Would this not happen at CWL if baby flexed its muscles or even if Jet2 came along or would Flybe’s business model be more appropriate, bearing in mind the report I quoted.
You have said, rightly, many times that running an airline is not a game where local enthusiasts' wishes have to be taken into account, but a business where money has to be made.
Thanks for a different view (to me anyway) - it is something to mull over.
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we all agreed that either it would finally make BMI Baby management pull their socks up in terms of giving Cardiff some decent routes and increased frequency or if FlyBe really took them on then yes of course they could withdraw
I also take it Twin Aisle you are equally not privy to any figures
I know all about yields etc you have explained it enough times
but when the locals abandon Cardiff to go to Bristol as they can fly to Newcastle about 8 times for the price Eastern charge for 1 trip out of Cardiff then that isn't good for the airport.
With regard to the price argument - you are of course right - but don't assume that the desires of the airport and the desires of the airline are congruent. Sometimes the airport has to do the wrong thing (for them) to get the right result (for them).
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But its true isnt it, if baby only can provide a frequency of one a day to glasgow, and never bothered with keeping the munich, milan routes which were quite popular and hasn't even reinstated the paris link when there was obviously a desire for that route. I never said that CWL was never going to be a base for another airline but the fact that FR now hates the management, easy r too close in BRS and Jet2 pride themselves as the 'norths best airline' or something - its only flybe then isnt it?
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Interesting as ever, MV! 
The big hole down which all this falls is the seat costs. It is MUCH easier to charge lower fares with a big aircraft than with a small one - which is why the A380 looks so good on paper (assuming you can get one!)
flybe's problem is that they have got around the problem of using smaller aircraft by using a lot of cheaper to run turboprops. Which are great on shorter, thinner routes, but the public want a jet.
My fear is that flybe will cherry pick some of the short routes out of CWL, throw a D-8 on them at reasonable fares (with more business like fares on CDG and BRU) and this could damage baby - and with the best will in the world, you won't get many takers for a D-8 to AGP when there is a 319 going from BRS....
A1234 - MUC was a political decision, look who owns baby. Milan was the wrong end of Italy and shows how bad some market research can be! GLA is not a fun route for 600 seats a day, neither is CDG. Let flybe have them, but beware what it will do to existing and possible tenants at CWL. As regards "it is only flybe" - think outside the box!
The big hole down which all this falls is the seat costs. It is MUCH easier to charge lower fares with a big aircraft than with a small one - which is why the A380 looks so good on paper (assuming you can get one!)
flybe's problem is that they have got around the problem of using smaller aircraft by using a lot of cheaper to run turboprops. Which are great on shorter, thinner routes, but the public want a jet.
My fear is that flybe will cherry pick some of the short routes out of CWL, throw a D-8 on them at reasonable fares (with more business like fares on CDG and BRU) and this could damage baby - and with the best will in the world, you won't get many takers for a D-8 to AGP when there is a 319 going from BRS....
A1234 - MUC was a political decision, look who owns baby. Milan was the wrong end of Italy and shows how bad some market research can be! GLA is not a fun route for 600 seats a day, neither is CDG. Let flybe have them, but beware what it will do to existing and possible tenants at CWL. As regards "it is only flybe" - think outside the box!
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Something else of interest in MV's post - and IMHO a slight flaw in the research....
What is a TRUE low fares airline?
The research sort of fudges this, and groups all the "locos" together - but I would assert that the only real low fares airline to date is Ryanair. (CAA figures before you start shouting). And what they have proved is that low fares DO build market. The sort of fares that easy and baby charge are higher than Ryanair, and do indeed have a self-eating effect, as per the report.
Would have been a great read if they had worked out what the effect of a RYANAIR base at CWL would have been. Alas, that would involve humble pie being eaten in Dublin and Cardiff, and that just ain't going to happen.
What is a TRUE low fares airline?
The research sort of fudges this, and groups all the "locos" together - but I would assert that the only real low fares airline to date is Ryanair. (CAA figures before you start shouting). And what they have proved is that low fares DO build market. The sort of fares that easy and baby charge are higher than Ryanair, and do indeed have a self-eating effect, as per the report.
Would have been a great read if they had worked out what the effect of a RYANAIR base at CWL would have been. Alas, that would involve humble pie being eaten in Dublin and Cardiff, and that just ain't going to happen.
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We don't know if or what routes FlyBe will take on. I suspect they are more likely to fly South than North and yes I do find it curious that they have gone head to head with Baby on Belfast (another conversation we had today)
There is danger in having all your eggs in one basket and perhaps if Baby's management had given the commitment to Cardiff that they have given to subsequent bases this wouldn't have ever been an issue but the lack of routes and frequency provided by Baby and the loss of Air Wales leaves a vacuum and nature abhors that vacuum.
There is danger in having all your eggs in one basket and perhaps if Baby's management had given the commitment to Cardiff that they have given to subsequent bases this wouldn't have ever been an issue but the lack of routes and frequency provided by Baby and the loss of Air Wales leaves a vacuum and nature abhors that vacuum.
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You do make a good point regarding other airlines, but I'm not really that much of an expert on new bases but when I asked about jet2 earlier in the week most people said it would go against their principle as a northern airline, but who knows. They would be a quite popular at cwl though, being quite cheap on many routes - milan was only £36 return from EDI but again yields are different! Could cwl be the new base for next summer that jet2 are planning?
Not Jet2 maybe but i was told by a friend that an old colleague of his had been approached by Globespan and asked if he would like to fly one of their 737s for them when they set up at Cardiff in Spring.
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Having read all the above, I fail to see why Baby gets all the bad press at CWL, it does.
The routes it has run have changed with profitability, A/C & crewing commttments and commercial pressures in BMI group. CWL is one of the most productive bases in that group for the very reason that the company have been cautious. Perhaps too cautious for a low cost model. The fact remains that BMI have been around for years and Baby has been a base a CWL for 4 years. This is a success but I grant other LoCo's may have been more aggressive. In that time, Air Wales have come and gone as have Excel. Mytravel and First Choice are only summer bases.
Flybe have cherry picked 1 route to begin with and say they intend to base A/C at CWL. That's their choice for whatever reason. It may simply be to see how Baby react for future reference at BHX. Competition for Baby maybe good or bad time will tell.
I feel that the Airport needs to be more helpful to all airlines. What happened to Continental? They went to BRS instead. Why is building work carried out at such ridiculous times each? CWL Management need to wake up and give passengers and airlines a better service.
The routes it has run have changed with profitability, A/C & crewing commttments and commercial pressures in BMI group. CWL is one of the most productive bases in that group for the very reason that the company have been cautious. Perhaps too cautious for a low cost model. The fact remains that BMI have been around for years and Baby has been a base a CWL for 4 years. This is a success but I grant other LoCo's may have been more aggressive. In that time, Air Wales have come and gone as have Excel. Mytravel and First Choice are only summer bases.
Flybe have cherry picked 1 route to begin with and say they intend to base A/C at CWL. That's their choice for whatever reason. It may simply be to see how Baby react for future reference at BHX. Competition for Baby maybe good or bad time will tell.
I feel that the Airport needs to be more helpful to all airlines. What happened to Continental? They went to BRS instead. Why is building work carried out at such ridiculous times each? CWL Management need to wake up and give passengers and airlines a better service.
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Hi,
With Flybe's Arrival into Cardiff, I feel that some airlines will either leave Cardiff or reduce there flights.
I feel that Flybe will most likley start GLA, EDI, ABZ etc, driving Bmibaby off the GLA and EDI routes. Maybe WOW, RE or EZE will be targeted?
Well I'm not saying that they are definatly going to attack other airlines but i mean sort of liek a "WHAT IF" senerio!
With Flybe's Arrival into Cardiff, I feel that some airlines will either leave Cardiff or reduce there flights.
I feel that Flybe will most likley start GLA, EDI, ABZ etc, driving Bmibaby off the GLA and EDI routes. Maybe WOW, RE or EZE will be targeted?
Well I'm not saying that they are definatly going to attack other airlines but i mean sort of liek a "WHAT IF" senerio!
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All this talk about Flybe this and that gets on my nerves!!
How many times have they left routes with their tail between their legs whenever thay come up against opposition.
I know for a fact that when they arrive on a route they do very well, after a while the business travellers desert in droves because they are unreliable and service not that great.
Eastern are doing very well on the Newcastle route but they are not cheap, but are very reliable and you can do a days business and return the same day. Now if Flybe come and dump a load of seats on this route with a once a day service in the middle of the day, the business traveller will have to pay for an overnight stay in Newcastle, not cheap. plus he/she will have a night away from home, which is not great
What would you do?
How many times have they left routes with their tail between their legs whenever thay come up against opposition.
I know for a fact that when they arrive on a route they do very well, after a while the business travellers desert in droves because they are unreliable and service not that great.
Eastern are doing very well on the Newcastle route but they are not cheap, but are very reliable and you can do a days business and return the same day. Now if Flybe come and dump a load of seats on this route with a once a day service in the middle of the day, the business traveller will have to pay for an overnight stay in Newcastle, not cheap. plus he/she will have a night away from home, which is not great
What would you do?