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Old 9th Dec 2006, 17:40
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Twin Aisle is spot on. The excitement of having a load of cheap nasty Dash 8s gracing the hallowed tarmac of CWL is nothing to get excited about. There is not one route from CWL that can bare any kind of competition. Being all emotional about how great CWL is won't change that fact ! Both FlyBe and Baby will not keep Belfast going.

FlyBe are not likely to start a crew base at Cardiff. They don't need to, everything they are interested in taking can be done from the other end or as a W pattern. That means if Baby throw their teddies out of the cot, which there is a very good chance they will !, the LOCAL aviation communtiy will lose. The LOCAL travelling community may gain in the short term but in the long term Twin Aisle is right. You can't operate the long routes unless you've got the short routes to back pack them with. NO EDI and GLA means NO Prague or Faro. Let me tell you for nothing there is absolutely NO WAY Flybe will ever put anything through CWL other than the Q400 BHX, SOU, EXT are much further up the food chain in FLYBE and the very small number of 195s they are having are already allocated. So there will be no extensive FlyBe network.

The CWL management have probably cost CWL the 4th Baby aircraft. The exact phrase used was "We are probably going to have to punish them by putting in BHX". And that was because they let TOM onto some routes that were scheduled by Baby only. As I said there are NO scheduled routes from CWL that will bare competition.

Twin Aisle is right the management need to be a lot smarter. Short term gain will lead to long term loss. As for Globespan good luck with that !
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Old 9th Dec 2006, 20:46
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Seems that most people think that flybe won't be good for CWL unless they treat it as a proper base, but I don't think they will bother with EDI or GLA to be honest, but BHD is better for the business traveller so it does make some sense. What routes could globespan do out of CWL without going into competition with baby? Regarding baby I feel that most people like them and I certainly like flying with them but the fact that when compared with easy at BRS it seems as if they haven't tried experimenting with new routes or tried something different, they've just stuck with the same routes every year, while even EMA has better baby frequencies, inc Paris.
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Old 9th Dec 2006, 20:52
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Can't help thinking that too much is being read into the Globespan rumours. They have only ten 737s, so putting a minimum of two in Cardiff could be a bit of a stretch for them, unless they are going shopping.

It is quite possible that they are coming on IT work of course, which means that no-one except perhaps the ThomsonFlys and XLs of this parish are going to be annoyed.

Thanks to CV by the way. I sometimes feel like the only person on here who supports Cardiff but takes a practical and realistic view for the longer term - clearly there are at least two of us!
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Old 9th Dec 2006, 22:09
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Originally Posted by CheekyVisual
The CWL management have probably cost CWL the 4th Baby aircraft. The exact phrase used was "We are probably going to have to punish them by putting in BHX". And that was because they let TOM onto some routes that were scheduled by Baby only. !
I remember another airline saying if a LoCo comes into Cardiff we will pull out, they did just that and it was the best thing that ever happened. So now we have that very LoCo pulling the same type of trick great
And of course they showed such great loyalty to the Airport themselves by pulling out an aircraft and reducing routes so who can blame them for going out and finding other airlines.

Some very short memories here

Last edited by flower; 9th Dec 2006 at 22:31.
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Old 9th Dec 2006, 22:30
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If the business is truly run in such a way described then none of them deserve to succeed.
Unfortunately, to a large extent it is. But they do deserve success. The bottom line is that the margins on most routes from regional airlines simply will not bear much competition - there simply is not the sort of demand as there is at, say, Gatwick or Stansted. So what tends to happen is that a new operator appears who spends on marketing, offers more tempting fares, and drives the incumbents out, as bmibaby did with BA (which is what I suspect Flower was getting at). Someone could do this to baby in turn, and in the fullness of time probably will.

What won't help Cardiff is (a) someone coming in and taking all the short routes away (as CV noted, you don't get PRG without EDI), and/or (b) a price war on a limited number of destinations.

Can Cardiff sustain more than one scheduled operator to the Spanish destinations? I would say yes, but it is going to be lower yield than baby are getting now. Could this happen on the PRG route? I would say no, one operator will fall off the route. Perhaps in a few years when CWL has grown a bit, but right now, no. For routes like DUB it is possible - business people need morning and evening, the general punter doesn't care but wants a lower fare - so for example, Ryanair and Air Wales co-existed quite happily on this route.

Basically, we are in danger of seeing an almighty scrap developing here, if all the rumours are true. That is in no-one's interest, least of all the people who keep the infrastructure at the airport ticking. It is up to the airport management, as I noted earlier, to keep a little bit of order, follow a strategy and get the best longer term result for the place.

This will involve the airport doing the right thing for the longer term, rather than what seems to be a good idea at the time. Uh oh...
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Old 10th Dec 2006, 00:51
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BMED at CWL

Slightly tongue in cheek spotters post......
BMED have been flying an empty A320/321 up and down the M4 between LHR and CWL for some weeks now.
Often the aircraft doesn't seem to do any flying out of Heathrow before returning to Cardiff.
Saturday's LAJ8 departed CWL at 14.22 and LAJ9 arrived back in Cardiff c17.30, both flown by A-320 G-MEDE.
Can't be cheap, 1 flight per day each way
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Old 10th Dec 2006, 04:33
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[QUOTE=Wellington Bomber;3010717]All this talk about Flybe this and that gets on my nerves!!

How many times have they left routes with their tail between their legs whenever thay come up against opposition.

Thank god someone said it, they've only announced 1 route, anybody would think they've made a base and put in 10 a/c, BRS is a prime example of the good old FLBE tail between their legs, And do BRS management really give a toss if they pull out, hmm with 10th EZY on the way plus FR sniffing around, nah i dont reckon.
I hope it does work out well for CWL, but just cant see them being as big as your all hopeing, maybe i'll eat my words in a year, who knows, but one route and mention of future routes isn't much to go on, they announced 3-4 new routes in BRS a few years back, promising up to 15 routes, did it happen, did it heck!
I also see reading their website announcement that in the first paragraph they say " new base" and in the 2nd they say "new hub" so which is it Mr Flybe? a base in airline terms means you have crew 'based' at that airport does it not? A hub however is just somewhere you fly in and out of... well thats my take on it anyway.
Dont get me wrong I'm not CWL bashing, I do honestly hope it works out well, but I dont think i've ever seen so much hype on prune about the release of a 1 new route!

Last edited by WATABENCH; 10th Dec 2006 at 04:51.
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Old 10th Dec 2006, 07:06
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Originally Posted by flower
One route does not a hub make and maybe FlyBe will only have the one route,
Indeed Watabench as I said in a previous post quoted above. Ryanair promised lots of routes , Baby promised a lot more than they have given but give us at least the opportunity to dream a bit


Oh yes another thing I posted was eggs in one basket, Bristol is EasyJet and should anything happen to them Bristol could end up like the poor neighbour across the River.
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Old 10th Dec 2006, 13:52
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eggs in one basket, Bristol is EasyJet and should anything happen to them Bristol could end up like the poor neighbour across the River
Agreed. This goes to the heart of my argument about the airport having to do what for them may be the wrong thing to get the right result.

It would be great if all the routes at Cardiff, or indeed any other airport, were duplicated between operators; it would provide a comfortable fall back in case one airline ceased the route,and the airport would love it. But what it also does, except on a relatively small number of routes that have stacks of demand (eg, LHR-JFK), is slash the yields. Which turns the option that the airport would like to have into the airline's worst nightmare - do you think baby would have gone to CWL, or Go to BRS (etc etc) if the respective airports had said to them "fine, we want you, but we will encourage someone to come in to compete against you on your routes"?

The airport should be:

(a) encouraging new entrants, but not helping them in so that they can compete against incumbents - except on routes that are proven to be under served (at CWL, that is basically the Spanish routes in the Summer). I would suggest that BHD is not in that camp somehow;
(b) having to swallow its pride and follow a strategy. This may involve saying no to people. Imagine if Air XYZ knocked on the airport's door and said that it wanted to operate out of CWL on all bmibaby's routes, but ten minutes before them. The airport should listen politely and then say "no ta". What would CWL say?

Prediction time. Cheeky Visual is about right I reckon - flybe are dipping their toe in the CWL pool to find out what baby will do when faced with them, in preparation for the forthcoming punch-up at BHX - that one will make the Rumble in the Jungle look like the Teddy Bears' Picnic. My guess is that baby will face them down and they'll pack in CWL-BHD pretty quickly. If they don't and baby run away from BFS, flybe will be empowered - and dangerous. And if baby don't fight them, then it will show baby's commitment to CWL is not what it might be. Baby will fight.

As for Globespan - I wouldn't be surprised if they will do some of the IT work à la ThomsonFly/XL rather than sell scheduled. Wonder if one of this year's operators overcommitted to the tour operators a bit and now they are fishing for extra seats? Wouldn't be the first time....

Last edited by TwinAisle; 10th Dec 2006 at 14:08.
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Old 10th Dec 2006, 14:58
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Well it says in the official statement from flybe on the airport website that CWL is it's 'new base' so it does look likely it will base here next year, assuming that CWL will get new routes as part of their new BaConnect/Flybe plan.
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Old 10th Dec 2006, 18:58
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I have spoken to a mate in Globespan, he has confirmed they might be coming to CWL next year but as Twinaisle said it is IT work, think he said it was the 767 that would come once a week to do Orlando.

Again talking to someonelse in Baby as to why they have never expanded at CWL, when he asked why don't we do these routes the answer he generally got was because easyJet do it out of BRS.

I have to admit I do see a lot of Welsh pax on easyJet flights out of BRS.

I would love CWL to do well just so I could get a job out of my home base but I don't see anyone I would risk leaving easyJet for coming anytime in the future.

I remember years ago prior to 9/11 when I was instructing, many times in the summer I would be held at the holding point for 30 minutes or in the orbit downwind for a good 20 minutes just because of the volume of IFR traffic arriving and departing, CWL was very busy then and it seems to have gone backwards.
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Old 10th Dec 2006, 19:58
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Originally Posted by Stone Cold II

I remember years ago prior to 9/11 when I was instructing, many times in the summer I would be held at the holding point for 30 minutes or in the orbit downwind for a good 20 minutes just because of the volume of IFR traffic arriving and departing, CWL was very busy then and it seems to have gone backwards.
Nah that was just me delaying you on purpose
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Old 10th Dec 2006, 22:13
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Thought so
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Old 10th Dec 2006, 22:47
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This is all very interesting news.

I must admit that I have wondered why nobody serves the usual European loco destinations from CWL (e.g. Pisa or Nice). I am not particularly interested in the "bucket and spade routes" personally and have always been disappointed that I cannot plan my journeys from Cardiff.

As for the "they'll go from Bristol" type argument- yes I have travelled from Bristol (for Italy) and Luton (for Nice), but that's because I COULDN'T travel from CWL- is this not in danger of becoming a circular argument?

For example, I wanted to travel from Rhoose to Pisa. In the end, drove to Bristol, then Bris to MXP on Bacon (Easy too expensive!!!). Overnight in Milan, then train to Pisa (still cheaper than Easy from BRS). Very gauling to drive by both CWL and Pisa Airports without being able to make the link- I could probably have been sitting on the beach at Cancun (via T-Fly from CWL) in the time it took!

Although I'm one of those people only too grateful to take advantage of the cynical and potentially short termist loco strategies, I always work out the fares very carefully (including the additional cost of car, tolls or train journeys). Surely I am not the only potential customer who may be willing to pay a little more just not to have to drag into the UK to fly?

As for the FlyBe Q400s, I am not too bothered about prop vs jet- I think that (apart from the reliability) FlyBe may have lucked out in being one of the few operators to pursue this aircraft- when the oil price went up, who was laughing then? In fact, as I now travel with a toddler, I prefer smaller planes, as there are less people to upset per journey!

At least CWL isn't "putting its eggs in one basket" (yet)- however, it does seem to attract operators who only "stick their toe in" or keep to what they know (Baby). I'm really hoping FlyBe will shake things up for the good and that more consistent and comprehensive services become established.

Look forward to being able to fly from CWL soon (hopefully!).

Daniel

PS...noticed TNT have been stationing QC aircraft at CWL, but thought that they were in freight config. Who are they operating for?
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Old 12th Dec 2006, 12:03
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Cwl Bcn

Now on sale from May07 with Thomsonfly 4 x weekly
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Old 12th Dec 2006, 13:41
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That should be an interesting route. Just hope they shout about it a bit, their advertising in Cardiff is not that hot...
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Old 12th Dec 2006, 13:57
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...About time they released this...
TOM have got advertising all over the airport, on the TV, numerous billboards as well as those silly old men on the radio. Not to mention the advertising they get in their own shops.
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Old 12th Dec 2006, 14:06
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TOM have got advertising all over the airport, on the TV, numerous billboards as well as those silly old men on the radio. Not to mention the advertising they get in their own shops.
One lives and learns. It all managed to pass me by. Clearly I am not their target market!

Must get a Burberry cap....
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Old 12th Dec 2006, 14:18
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At the 2001 census, the population of Cardiff was recorded as 305,340.

Lovely place, but actually a medium sized town labouring under the belief that it is a Capital City. It isn't. And within 30 miles you will find several of the most poor towns in the country.

Which is why Cardiff Airport has been the death knell of so many airlines over the years, why it is currently moribund and why it will never flourish.

South Wales is all fur coat and no knickers. Some parts of Cardiff and Tiger Bay have been tarted up and sport Charlotte Church and her mates. The rest of the region languishes as a cultural and economic black hole which shudders against the chill wind of globalisation.

As for Bristol airport being "vulnerable" due to its 'dependence' upon easyJet that is akin to saying the City is dependent upon financial services. Yes it is - thank God.

Cardiff - stop looking to compete with BRS and become realistic - take lessons from Norwich.

AP
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Old 12th Dec 2006, 14:26
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Funny post that last one....

Must have been someone who has not read any of the Avia Solutions reports, the Government White Papers on air travel, the Economic and Social Trends surveys....

Yes, parts of South Wales are having a harder time than other parts of the UK. Cf Bedminster, South London, Moss Side... all "hard done by regions" near other airports.

Cardiff is a relatively small city, agreed. But within an hour's travel live an awful lot of people. By train, even Swindon is just an hour away.

Come here, have a look. Then decide.

Anyway, I must dash. I am meeting Flower and her dogs to go begging under the railway arches.
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