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Old 21st Aug 2008, 23:37
  #1061 (permalink)  
 
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Rumours abound. From what I have heard this is NOT about cost cutting.
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Old 22nd Aug 2008, 07:34
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What's the Saab's capacity? current arrangement is 2 aircraft carrying 3 chopper loads, so for the new 92's that's 57 pax.
Couldn't see Loganair doing this - not their sort of business.
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Old 22nd Aug 2008, 10:00
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mmmmm.. perhaps the 146 is the expensive part of the operation!? during the summer quite often having to fly three a/c to fly in only 100+ pax due to landing at SCS in light winds.... cheaper with three DH8's or ATR42's. Maybe needs the Saab2000 to match the speed though............
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Old 22nd Aug 2008, 11:03
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If the 146 was the expensive part they'd fly the 92's direct from ABZ - fixed wing to SCS, even with the cost of the airfield is still cheaper.
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Old 22nd Aug 2008, 12:24
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I would not be surprised if it is getting cheaper to fly direct from ABZ. Others do fly direct and claim its cheaper, and arguably safer as it halves the number of take off and landings each passenger has to go through. Perhaps if they find cheaper and more fuel efficient-to-run fixed-wing they will stay the fixed-wing/shuttle route for a couple of years yet..
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Old 22nd Aug 2008, 14:03
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I am sure the issue is nothing to do with the high operating costs of the 146. I believe the direct operating costs of the 146 are the same as that of the old Tigers that Bristow used to use on the route, but with 5 times the capacity. Granted now the S92's are allegedly cheaper to operate, but I'm still not sure if the maths works out on an ABZ based operation.

It will be sad to see the 146's leave ABZ, but hopefully the IAC will realise the amazing adaptability of this popular little jet and we will see them return. It is the only jet aircraft that can do the job, the Saab will have payload issues I'm sure as will the Q400. The Dash has been previously evaluated and found not to be able to take the bigger loads out of SCS. I expect the successful tender will still need to keep a hot stand-by aircraft in ABZ, the IAC would not want to risk the integrity of the operation should there be technical or weather problems.
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Old 22nd Aug 2008, 15:04
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146 is a combination of fuel cost and reliability issues. IAC is out to tender for fixed-wing operations to replace the 146s. Part of the issue is that the current 146 capacity is not used efficiently and so a smaller aircraft could do the job at reduced cost.
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Old 22nd Aug 2008, 16:03
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I guess it all depends on what is the priority for the IAC. Are they willing to sacrifice the reliability, popularity and adaptability of the jet for the cheaper option of a turboprop. No doubt a Saab 2000 or Q400 will have lower operating costs but I'm not sure how they will handle the occassions when four S92 loads need to be moved on one flight. I would rather not be hanging around in SCS for an additional aircraft to arrive from ABZ, especially with a connecting flight home.
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Old 22nd Aug 2008, 21:33
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Perhaps we are looking at a 146 with lower airframe hours, how about a Atlantic from Vagar or Transwede with BAE RJ's ?

Remember that the Saab 2000 and ATR42 seats 50 max, the ATP seats 64 and the ATR seats 72, then there is the dash 8-400. So only one British airline currently flies a turboprops with over 64 seats !

The 146 has proved to be so flexible, they will have to look carefully at it's replacement, the only thing to replace a 146 is a 146 on this kind of route
( and where have we heard that before ). We can soon cut the operating overheads, base just two aircraft at Aberdeen for the contract and then suffer the catch-up delays when the weather has stopped flying and then clears.
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Old 23rd Aug 2008, 22:33
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Not really- both Aer Arran and Aurigny operate the ATR72......over 64 seats
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Old 25th Aug 2008, 07:55
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Scatsta

So if as is rumoured Flightline have lost the Scatsta run, will they close their Aberdeen station or retain a presence here for, say, ad-hocs or lease availability? There still seems to be demand for their 146s, as they've been this year to the likes of Galway, Munich, Milan, all positioning out from then back to ABZ.

So would/could they:
i. pull out of ABZ & redeploy the 146s back to Southend?
ii. as i. but wfu the 146 fleet (or some of them)
iii. retain a presence at ABZ for ad-hoc & lease (eg. 1x 146)
They COULD...whether they WOULD...

And who are the runners/riders if not Flightline?
- Eastern
- Flybe
- Aer Arann
- Cityjet
- bmi R
- VLM

The "rumour" previously had been that bmi R had been asked to tender with DH8D, of which Flybe have plenty.

As for Eastern, Saab 2000 certainly quick enough, but does it have sufficient capacity, & can Eastern source more? They were supposed to be in the market for more but to date, no announcements that they are acquiring more. Unless they do add another type to their operation.

Is it more likely that those operators that have a base or significant operations here already have a greater chance of securing the contract?

And is the new contract going to be Scatsta, or back to Sumburgh? The IAC includes Shell, but they have sold their NNS assets to TAQA. Would TAQA be happy to take their place in the IAC or "go their own way" & service the fields direct from ABZ, like the BAH Chinooks (& others) did in the early 80s? Not as if there are not direct heli flights from ABZ today, the likes of Alwyn & west Shetland often are served direct ABZ, with maybe a fuel stop at Wick or Kirkwall (for west Shetland), but not a crew change there.
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Old 25th Aug 2008, 10:04
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This is what I like about you guys in the ABZ thread - both on here and on plane-mad is that you enjoy a bit of good old speculation. You pick the stories to pieces and try to analyse each bit and come up with possibilities - its healthy!
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Old 25th Aug 2008, 13:33
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IAC...

Heard a couple of rumours one saying Flybe (with their 146's if they have any left) got the new contract and the other saying Brymon again. Didn't know Brymon still existed but there you go. Again only RUMOURS.

Stu...
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Old 25th Aug 2008, 16:33
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Bring back those Dash 7s!!!

More serious note, the stewardess arrested recently has been fined at the Sheriff Court today - she has resigned from her job with bmi. Probably not surprising, but apparently she went out the evening before the flight with other crew members, partaking of cocktails & "sharing a couple bottles of wine" - thus suggesting she may not have been the only one enjoying a drink.

Not necessarily a crime in itself, but I guess it shows everyone's tolerence levels when it comes to booze is different, & "there but for the Grace of God..."
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Old 25th Aug 2008, 18:00
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Heard a couple of rumours one saying Flybe (with their 146's if they have any left) got the new contract and the other saying Brymon again. Didn't know Brymon still existed but there you go. Again only RUMOURS.

I don't think the whole Flybe thing will happen. They are determined to get rid of the 146 with the last going in October (GCI based being replaced with a Q400) I can only assume that, if Flybe is offered the contract, that it will be with a Q400. Although would they go ahead with it?? Most of the routes up that end of the country (island and regionals) will be Loganair ops under the Flybe brand - would they ask Loganair to do it albeit to a more frequent schedule to accommodate the loads? A Saab 340 several times a day???
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Old 25th Aug 2008, 18:32
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Scatsta was re-awarded the IAC contract just 2 years ago, with plans of extending terminal, hangar etc etc, though I believe Shell had a "get out clause" if they required. The saab 340 is out of the question as they only have circa 33 seats, so you'd only get 1 full S-92 load on it, so other than the 146, the only possible a/c would be Q400, ATR 72, saab 2K. The ATP would never be brought back into the equation after it's everlasting tech and payload problems with Britworld. I know that either Shell or Flightline had been evaluating the A318 a while back, and part of Shell's recent saftey campaigns in aviation was to bring in new technology and airframes hence the S-92's and 225's over the last 2 years. As for theory's about heli's going direct from Aberdeen, possible, but highly unlikely at present as the operators are so short of airframes and crews and doing so would make it even worse.
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Old 25th Aug 2008, 21:16
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Scatsta - if Flybe

Good point Sim. If Flybe have got it, would it still be for Scatsta, meaning Q400s for SCS & leaving LogieBear Saab 340s for Sumburgh? Or would they also put on a Q400 onto LSI, redeploying the LOG 340s elsewhere, especially if the contract moves back to LSI? I thought the point of SCS was it was closer to the rigs than the southern tip of Shetland.

I presume if Flybe have been awarded the contract they would not be allowed to combine the charter & scheduled ops into one flight? Was there not once talk before of offering empty seats on the IAC charters for general sale?

Wonder if high fuel costs have pushed up the cost of the 146 flights, meaning Flightline were not able to put in the lowest tender? Rather ironic the high cost of oil possibly puts paid to an airline operating an oil scheduled charter! Times we live in I guess. Flightline have done a good job on the oil support flights as far as I am aware. Will be sad to see them go if all is confirmed & a.n.other takes over.

Are there any locally-based Flightline crew? What will the future hold for them?
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Old 25th Aug 2008, 21:49
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The LSI vs SCS battle was all over costs. LSI (HIAL) wouldn't offer the IAC a decent rate when the Shell contract ended. The IAC made big savings moving to SCS despite the runway extension and new Terminal bldg. It's only in the last few years that HIAL seem to have seen the error of their ways and get serious about trying to tempt the IAC back to LSI.

Going to be interesting where this ends up - A318's

p.s. I thought Brymon were swallowed up by BA? certainly remember some sort of BA flag on the Dash 7's before they left - Dash 7's were quite something, damn near VTOL.
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Old 25th Aug 2008, 22:17
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Yes Brymon were swallowed by BA.I think the Dash7 was the best aircraft for the Shetland run.Everything else has some sort of limitation.Who knows where this might go.
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Old 25th Aug 2008, 22:31
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Brymon were owned by BA, as were british regional, and they became one - BA cityexpress, who BA then sold off to Flybe a couple of years ago

Most of the Flightline c/c were locally employed, plus some of the ex britworld who are still around. Most of the flight deck were relocated to ABZ IIRC, but there are some SEN crews sent up now and again.

I just wonder if we'd ever see a scheduled airline doing these runs, the operation really needs a dedicated service, with dedicated aircraft and crews, but could maybe work otherwise. I think there maybe a lot of unknown issues at the moment, I'm trying get confirmed the rumour I have heard from several sources, that various audits carried out by oil company / companies revealed some issues that they did not like, which has brought on all this, if so, it may be some months yet before airlines have to submit their bids..... then more audits carried out etc etc, not a quick process by any means. Audits by the oil co's are very thorough, for example I know that Shell had used to send staff over to Oslo / Stavangar etc on the late city star, until audits were carried out with the aim of using them for offshore charter work- they failed, and Shell even stopped putting ALL staff on them to SVG etc!
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