Neither PF or FR24 tracked it. Strange, but that's what they say as high enough for MLAT.

We don't know that FR24 didn't track it.

It may well have a voluntary agreement, as it does with many corporate/private aircraft owners, not to publish flight details.

The weather was absolutely miserable at around 0200 local time. They were up early again this morning looking for them and were still looking for them at around 1430 LCT when we departed.
Weather is getting worse again, it's currently snowing in London and moving that way.

Impact only (in the case of ELT). They are not water acticated The transmisssions dont work to well if the aircraft then sinks :sad:

Some facts about N264DB:
- there is one photograph of it on Airliners from July 4, 2010. It shows it was equipped (in 2010) with de-ice boots and heating propeller pads.
Of course, this equipment might have been unserviceable on January 21th, 2019.
- the cruise ceiling of a PA-46-310P is 25,000 ft. At that altitude, it still has a ROC between 400 and 500 fpm but 25,000 ft is the limit dictated by the pressurisation system.

TAF and METAR for Cardiff and Jersey were:

EGFF 211644Z 2116/2212 22012KT 9999 SCT035 TEMPO 2116/2120 7000 -RA TEMPO
2120/2124 23016G26KT 6000 RA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 2120/2124 27020G30KT 4000 RA
BKN006 BECMG 2121/2124 28012KT TEMPO 2208/2212 6000 SHRA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO
2208/2210 3000 SHRA SHRASN BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 2210/2212 SHRA TSGS BKN008

EGFF 211820Z AUTO 22011KT 9999 -RA BKN021 OVC034 07/05 Q1014
EGFF 211850Z AUTO 23012KT 9999 -RA BKN020 BKN026 OVC045 07/05 Q1013
EGFF 211920Z AUTO 22011KT 9999 BKN033 BKN044 07/05 Q1013
EGFF 211950Z AUTO 22013KT 9999 BKN033 07/05 Q1012
EGFF 212020Z AUTO 22012KT 9999 SCT026 BKN034 07/05 Q1011
EGFF 212050Z AUTO 20012KT 9999 BKN023/// BKN039/// //////TCU 07/05 Q1010
EGFF 212120Z AUTO 20012KT 9999 -RA SCT024 BKN033 BKN040 07/05 Q1009
EGFF 212150Z AUTO 21012KT 6000 -RA BKN020/// OVC026/// //////TCU 07/06 Q1008

EGJJ 211707Z 2118/2203 20010KT 9999 FEW015 BKN030 TEMPO 2118/2124 -RA BKN015
PROB30 TEMPO 2118/2121 7000 SHRA BKN012 BECMG 2121/2123 22020KT BECMG 2202/2203
31017KT NSW SCT015

EGJJ 211820Z 22010KT 9999 SCT014 SCT025 BKN040 06/04 Q1019
EGJJ 211850Z 22011KT 9999 FEW018 SCT021 07/04 Q1018
EGJJ 211920Z 22011KT 9999 FEW016 SCT018 07/04 Q1018
EGJJ 211950Z 22012KT 9999 FEW018 SCT020 06/04 Q1017
EGJJ 212020Z 22013KT 9999 R26/1400 SCT014 07/04 Q1017
EGJJ 212050Z AUTO 22015KT 9999 1200 R26/1200 BR SCT014/// SCT018/// BKN033///
07/05 Q1016
EGJJ 212120Z AUTO 22015KT 9999 1400 FEW013/// OVC028/// 07/05 Q1016 RERA
EGJJ 212150Z AUTO 21015KT 9999 1400 FEW014/// SCT017/// BKN032/// 07/05 Q1015
RERA

A number of assets were utilised today, and they were stood down at approx 17:00 and the wind increased over the day. The earlier tasked assets involved in the search had been stood down in the early hours, as it would have been non-productive with the deteriorating conditions.

Unfortunately there was nothing found during today's search, and I'm not so sure the reports of red flares relate to the actual aircraft itself, and were more likely dropped by assets during the search.

FR24 didn't track it because, 'the transponder wasn't on or it was very old'.
Source: FR24

Seems the questions are getting answered..

Experienced pilot - named in some media.
PA46-310P from 1984 owned under the usual UK trustee system.
"old" transponder meaning Mode C?

God Damn Channel Islands - with it's own weather.
I've flown in there dozens of times and one minute you can count every star in the sky and the next - you can't see the end of the temp probe out the front of the windscreen.

The question of whether it was equipped with Mode S ELS/EHS (25' altitude resolution) or simply Mode C (100') is largely immaterial. As a 35-year-old privately-owned aircraft it almost certainly didn't have ADS-B, which means that it would only have transmitted altitude when interrogated by ground radar.

Single engine, winter, snow forecast, night, possibly chartered from the low bidder. Prominent entertainer having the arrangements made for them.

Did we learn nothing from Buddy Holly ?

Departed to Guernsey?

If that is the case and they wanted to land there, this would explain the altitude.

That was the Saturday Cardiff to Nantes flight, via Guernsey.

It would only explain the low altitude on yesterday's flight if they had also planned to stop there on the return. We don't know that.

Chartered? On the N reg?

Wouldn't be the least but surprised if some shenanigan like this was involved - but if so the CAA need to come down on the perpetrators like a ton of hot bricks.
We hear far too much of this sort of chicanery.
Remember the Dettori near wipeout at Doncaster(?) racecourse last year? Yet another N reg being flown irresponsibly & dangerously in UK airspace with high value clients on board. "Lent" by friends was it? I'll bet.

The great grey-area, dry lease hire... to quote a website offering such a service.

"All hires are on a “dry” basis, leaving customers free to organise their own flights and supply their own pilots. This makes the service very cost effective and flexible as overheads are kept to a minimum."

It also nicely sidesteps the reason why AOCs were created, SAFETY!