It is highly unlikely (albeit not impossible) that a vaccine will be developed this year, but vaccinating 70% of the developed world (why leave out the US?) is pure fantasy on any timescale, let alone less than a year.

As you’ve said, the big calls are being made by politicians who will simply never make any decisions Sir Humphrey would dub ‘courageous’. What we’re witnessing is the ultimate in big government expansionism and nanny-statism, roared on by a media apparatus, much of which would usually rail against the excesses of the state (Daily Mail, The Express etc.).

For those in the high risk category, self isolating is probably prudent, though it shouldn’t be mandatory. For the majority however, the extra alcohol and takeaways they’re consuming during this intervening period is more likely to be injurious to their health than novel coronavirus.

There are at least seven vaccines being tested on humans or about to be, all from reputable labs with good track records. There is I agree no guarantee but the track record suggests that about 2 will become commercial. I am more optimistic than you. We do indeed vaccinate 70% or more of the susceptible in the developed world with flu vaccine every winter and the only reason we dont vaccinate 70% of more people is cost. We universally aim to vaccinate with MMR and other vaccines and achieve well over 70%. If the money is there to manufacture, 70% is achievable in about a year. The reason I say not the USA is simply because their record with flu vaccine is abysmal primarily because it isnt free at point of use, and the price isnt 'cost plus' but many times more. Hence the US death rate per million population is higher due to less vaccination.

True, because if fully locked down the risk of Covid-19 is effectively zero. However without lockdown we may have seen 924,000 deaths over a matter of months. That is a lot of takeaways

I write with a statistical life expectancy of 10 months, yet oddly, I still care a great deal about the dangers I see every day. Ordinary folk indeed don't 'want to understand' and are doubly blind to the dangers. They would hand out white feathers to non-singers if they could source the feathers. A tightly knit comminity all singing into the road at the same time in a light breeze. What could possibly go wrong?

My concern for the enemy taking on new form and gaining strength. BBC NEWS current now.Coronavirus: 'My son had symptoms of rare syndrome'

Philadelphia ~1919 is a horror story - and a mystery. It was linked to the flu but resembled the Plague of London. The case of one (or a few?) above, is not meaningful, but it's this kind of offshoot that we should be looking out for like hawks.

Looks like BA are taking necessary action in order to stay in the game and survive. No bail out from UK tax payers. It's tough for so many of our fellow aviation colleagues but at least BA are facing the music and taking action. So some will remain in a job unlike some other airlines who are destined to fail in this current climate which of course has pulled the rug from underneath them.

Its just the way of the present world.

@ Loose rivets : Did not know so you made me curious and I researched it . and I found this a the cause . very similar to the current situation in fact .But I do not think it is what you meant . Is there more behind those numbers ?

Philadelphia went ahead with the parade, St Louis cancelled it. Afterwards the Medical Officers compared the death rate in the two cities in a medical journal, concluding the parade was the sole cause.

Roll forward 100 years. Cheltenham race meeting and the Liverpool Madrid football match. Death rate from Covid19 around both venues higher than average

history teaches us about the future, but only if you want to learn

PHL
 

I'm based in Philly and drive down from New York City. Though the NY government has clearly been working very hard and the City is much more densely populated than Philadelphia; the death rates are starkly different. I think Philly remembered 1918 well and acted as such..
PHL:- 13k infections 550 deaths
NYC 157k infections 16,000 plus dead.
My front door in lower Manhattan to KPHL is 102 miles. (and New Jersey ...)

Philadelphia was unusual because of the London plague-like speed with which people succumbed. This is what I'm getting at about needing to watch for sudden variations of symptoms.

The novel corona virus became a pandemic primarily because of aviation, our industry, nothing else could provide it the ability to spread at highspeed, high volume and to every corner of the planet.

The world will be doubly cautious in providing it such carriage again. An epidemic anywhere is now an epidemic everywhere.

What then would allow countries to reopen their borders and airports, and resume the airline industry:

1. Vaccine. A vaccine would supposedly be the end game for Covid-19 and the Gold standard.
2. Test. Accurate, reliable, mobile, instant test. Results within 10 minutes, suitable for use prior to boarding.
3. Immunity. Medical consensus that individuals are immune after having covid-19. Individual health certificates to verify each passenger’s immunity status.
4. New Anti-viral medication that significantly reduces the severity of covid-19 risk and symptoms to that below currently accepted thresholds for communicable diseases. [ Regular Flu etc.].
5. Mandatory quarantine of 14 days at authorized centers for all incoming passengers.
6. Concluding that world isolation will become economically unsustainable, the effects of the cure becoming significantly worse than the effects of the Virus, forcing a shift to the Swedish approach; Protect and isolate the most vulnerable in society , allow free movement for all others while continuing social distancing, gloves, mask, washing of hands etc. [ a consensus between countries of travel]
7. If Covid-19 is truly considered a WAR of man versus virus, at some point, as in all previous World Wars, death becomes an acceptable collateral damage. It is what it is, and its ugly! [ Plan Z]

I agree, it sounds crazy to me, even today. I've seen a previous comment comparing the COVID-19 response to how aviation safety is achieved, so I will make some comparisons between COVID 19 and MCAS on the 737 MAX. Yes, really :)

Before being grounded the 737 MAX had a fatality rate of 0.0004% per flight (2 crashes in 500,000 flights). Credible estimations for the COVID-19 IFR are somewhere between 0.5% and 1.0%. So being infected by COVID-19 could be least 1000 times more dangerous than flying on the MAX one time. And also harder to avoid.

With the estimated 500,000 COVID-19 deaths in UK, if the entire population gets infected, you would need to crash more than 2,500 737 MAXes full of people into the ground, just in the UK, to achieve a similar result. Only 387 MAXes have been delivered so far, so that wouldn't even work. Officially there are 21,678 COVID-19 deaths so far in the UK. That's equivalent to around 120 crashes of the 737 MAX so far. Just in the UK. Worldwide there are currently 217,571 COVID-19 deaths reported. That's equivalent to around 1,200 737 MAX crashes.

Assuming a 0.75% COVID-19 IFR, and the entire world population infected, you are looking at around 58 million deaths from COVID-19 worldwide. That's equivalent to about 320,000 737 MAX crashes. Yes, most of the "PAX" affected by COVID-19 will be old people. But it still sounds unacceptable to me, so "grounding" parts of the world economy to try preventing that makes sense in my opinion.

Looking at it in another way, the world gross product is only around 800 times higher that the yearly revenue of Boeing at its peak. And the MAX was grounded after just two crashes. We are at 1,200 COVID-19 equivalent "crashes" right now, so we are somewhere between the two MAX crashes in an equivalent timeline, except many parts of the world economy that were causing the risk have been grounded already, so we did better than the FAA did with the MAX to manage the risk. But some people are proposing to lift the COVID-19 "grounding", without eliminating most of the risk first. That sounds unwise to me.

Spanish flu was spread by ships. Still, we keep building them.

Relax guys, it will go away. It’s just that right now no government has a clue of what’s going on.

1-5: Same for trains, buses, cars?
Good luck to stop the riots!

.

In my humble opinion, governments now have the toughest decision (yet to be made).
They either choose the card of life, meaning playing “Godlike” figure and saving everyone at any cost.
Or choose the card of economy.

Choosing the first makes everybody happy in the short term. Ethics are accomplished and we feel like we can win. But in this one, a bigger percentage of healthy individuals are being pushed into poverty.

Choosing the latter allows for a Swedish approach (not sure wether all countries will have the ability to behave like them). Protect the elderly and the people with higher risk profile. Allow free movement and improve the medical care system.

It seems to me that governments are reluctant to choose one. Accepting deaths, as previous members have mentioned, would allow for a clearer vision and planning.

Our super advanced societies made us believe we were not part of the natural cycle.

quite the opposite - Again - do this and the airlines and airports will remain almost completely inactive. It makes holiday travel and business travel impractical ... leaving what?

Bidule : That is an aspect of the problem we have not discussed much yet. Looking at the news this morning the Lebanese situation is probably being closely watched by many politicians today . Lebanon had the effects of a disrupted economy starting a few months before everyone else,and now , this combined with the virus lockdown effect is starting to produce riots on the streets. They are now attacking and burning banks and ATMs. , meaning in a short while nobody will have access to cash anymore, an effective way to create even more chaos..
It would seem that the number of months a government can keep its citizens under economic duress before reactions on the streets start to get ugly is indeed in single digits .

There’s another aspect that’s not discussed much and that’s the elder (older?) population.

Typically, 15%+ of the living depending upon ones definition of old.

Many of us already have existing death sentences and cannot afford to waste what life is remaining by sitting at home for even six months, let alone one year.

Again, typically this 15%+ have both disposable income and time and nothing to lose by going against the authoritarian rubbish that is being imposed.

Interesting times ahead I feel.

Well, I'd say it is discussed, but in the form of telling the elderly what's good for them. The older population I have met and read about, mostly say they want lockdown lifted so they can LIVE, see their friends and family, and accept the risks of covid.

So who are the vast c.90% who supposedly poll as wanting the lockdown to continue? (amazingly a poll today found almost a third would still want lockdown to continue, even if all the conditions for lifting were met)! I do suspect part of it amongst 21st century, cosseted working age populations (especially lucky ones still being paid for doing nothing), is due to a form of cowardice, and also an increasing sedentary laziness (who by so doing, are at increased risk by their own hand through obesity and poor fitness). Wind back a century and people would laugh at a threat with such a tiny mortality rate. The tunnel vision on number of deaths, is blinding politicians to the infinitely greater number of diminished LIVES, and angsty media is similarly blinding their populations.

That's right old guys, it's all young people doing it to you. You should be free to infect anyone you want, you have money after all. And 'they' had better open the airports up so you can fly where you like. It's an infringement on your fundamental right to be OK. Lazy cowards the lot of them. Humbug.

“FOSTER CITY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apr. 29, 2020-- Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) today announced topline results from the open-label, Phase 3 SIMPLE trial evaluating 5-day and 10-day dosing durations of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized patients with severe manifestations of COVID-19 disease.”

“The study demonstrates the potential for some patients to be treated with a 5-day regimen, which could significantly expand the number of patients who could be treated with our current supply of remdesivir. This is particularly important in the setting of a pandemic, to help hospitals and healthcare workers treat more patients in urgent need of care.”

https://www.gilead.com/news-and-pres...evere-covid-19

CP

Before breaking out the champers, take a look at the false starts with Ebola treatment, for example:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...20-4?r=US&IR=T

this is more a PR statement than a real breakthrough , reading further in the same PR :

Trains buses and cars are operating now. This is about opening borders and getting international air travel started. Which of the 7 options is realistic?

PR?? Of course it’s not approved(!), it’s initial results from a phase 3 trial. Did you even read the entire release?

“Gilead plans to submit the full data for publication in a peer-reviewed journal in the coming weeks.”

CP

PR = Press Release . and reading the contents it is just that.

Spanish Gov. see external borders closed until October (in Spanish)

Put the Sangria on ice, >>> for 5 months.:\ It's a long relaxing holiday but only for the Bongs-Bongs & ze 'Busses . I think Spain get 60 Million tourists a year, or used to.

Short-term cheap package holiday travel: indeed gone
Business conferences and the like: as above, dead as the dodo
Long-term holiday travel - say 3 months plus: still viable, these folks will travel Business or Premium Economy if they're feeling cheap
Secondary school and tertiary study: no going 'home' in the short holiday breaks, otherwise still as doable as now
Trans-border moving house for a job change: just a longer gap between posts, very little change really

I'd guess that will leave about 25% to 30% of the 2019 travel still in the market and would be doom for the majority of LCCs and make life every difficult for airport companies / authorities, ATC providers and for Airbus & Boeing

Just my $0.02

That'll get the regions fired up! Andalucia is already wanting to start firing up the tourist industry! They risk a massive level of unemployment down there!

Besides, my primary residence is in Spain so would like to get back there sometime soon from Dubai! Could be a while...

The Sicilian regional government is offering to subsidise tourists who book holidays on the island before the end of the year, to the tune of half of their flight cost and one third of their hotel bill.

My primary residence is also Spain.. It’s why I hold Spanish residency, pay my tax and social here and am a member of SEPLA.. Yep, I’m English, work and fly across many borders and have fully taken on board all the logistics and indeed politics to actually call this not only my ‘primary residence’, but also my home.

Sorry, that all sounds a bit arrogant for sure.. Difficult times I know, apologies..

I truly feel that somewhere down the path of aviation (pilot role) we have lost control of the most simple terms of engagement.

Be safe all of you and understand that these setbacks in what we as pilots would call our ‘career’ has happened quite a few times before. Of course it will return, in the meantime find yourself something very constructive for you and if you have, family.. For truly. That’s what is really important right now. Ensure you love and are loved somewhere. Yes, I could write now until the ducks come home, but I will not.

Be safe, find something to entertain your emotions and desires so you can return full of strength when the time arrives.

Ad.. I’m Elomium :)

Have people seen this

https://petition.parliament.uk/petit...JNFG8lAroPI0Kc

Might not do much good but we can only try

55k already. That's good going relatively speaking.

The government know what’s going on. Why people think a website with a few ticks is going to lead them down any different path.

I am sure Turkey will start the most offensive campaign very soon, undercutting anybody else. They are very agressive when it comes to bumping out competitors.

Then return home to a 14 day quarantine which is on the cards.

Press release yes, but this is not just some release to keep up interest in media. Like I said, it’s first results from a phase 3 trial and head of FDA commented:

“The Food and Drug Administration is moving at “lightning speed” to review data on Gilead Sciences Inc.’s experimental Covid-19 treatment remdesivir, Commissioner Stephen Hahn said, after encouraging results emerged from a key U.S. trial.“

Let’s wait for full data to be released and reviewed.

CP

I'm still of the opinion that the older generation, who make up a significant number of bums on seats, will not be in too much of a hurry to board a flight anywhere, discounts or not! A rush to kick things off prematurely will discourage them even more.

I think a bigger problem will be travel insurance - if Businesses and individuals cannot get cover for Covid19 for foreign travel then demand is going to be very muted.

I think this 25-30% is optimistic >:rolleyes:.
Maybe there is data as to who sits on planes, Worldwide daily passengers, % of trips that are one-way, duration of return trips etc?:*
Big guess approaching now>>>>----- 90% of trips are return flights of less than 2 weeks.

Maybe somebody can point us all in the direction of good solid numbers on who was using all those seats pre-Covid

Such information does not give us much guidance on future trending? Even with figures surely for the immediate future into 2021 individuals and companies will have a totally different outlook on using air travel. From past experience we know that many Americans will not risk travel until such times as we are virus free. The mature (financially able) traveler will be hesitant and may not get suitable insurance, which leaves the LOCO masses that have embraced cheap air travel, many of whom latterly have graduated / upgraded to major established airlines. I fear that they will not be able to afford the air travel lifestyle for a number of years. To many people will lose their jobs and employers will pay less. As someone has already commented this year is a right of, let's hope that at least 25-30% figure is feasible.

Maybe there's too much concern over travel insurance? The insurance industry just like aviation will want to do business, and will adapt to whatever the new model is.