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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 17th Apr 2020, 10:38
  #441 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
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Originally Posted by CaptainProp View Post
CHaving said that, I‘m very optimistic that we will have meaningful treatment options on the table in the next 3-6 months which will give a massive boost to the markets and the general public. it will also help us manage a likely second wave of the virus later this year. These treatments will make a huge difference until we have a vaccine available.
Yeah! The fantastic speed with which the meaningful AIDS treatment and vaccine were developed makes me optimistic too!
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 10:44
  #442 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by the_stranger View Post
If this really applied to " the most of is", Ryanair et al. would not have existed, United would have no customers, etc.

If air travel starts up again, most of us will just go for the lowest fare, regardless of present or future behaviour of the airline.
When I meant “ most of us” I am referring to those who have been treated in a disgraceful manner by many of the major airlines around the world who in addition to withholding refunds are also now pleading for tax payers money to keep them going. Of course many will go for the cheapest option in the future and good luck to them and the airlines who provide this excellent service. My point is look after your passengers now and they will remain loyal to you in the future. It makes good business sense.
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 11:01
  #443 (permalink)  
 
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while you might be thinking that way (and I admire that), I do think you think too highly of people in general.
Sure most will say never to fly Z again when issued a voucher, but in a years time they are Z is slightly cheaper than X and there they go, booking with Z...

There is a reason most, if not all, airlines were on a downward slope regarding service, perks and extra's. It's all about the money and the ones who choose more with past experience in mind (like you) don't generate enough of it.

Hopefully I am wrong, though..
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 11:24
  #444 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by the_stranger View Post
If this really applied to " the most of is", Ryanair et al. would not have existed, United would have no customers, etc.

If air travel starts up again, most of us will just go for the lowest fare, regardless of present or future behaviour of the airline.
The reality is "most of us" will be a significantly smaller number for a few years to come.
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 11:48
  #445 (permalink)  
 
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Of the airlines that deserve to succeed I would like to single out Finnair for their excellent customer service and efficient refunding of my money. I will definitely be using them again!
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 11:49
  #446 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by b1lanc View Post
The reality is "most of us" will be a significantly smaller number for a few years to come.
I guess that depends on where you are in the age distribution. A lot of inheriting is taking place, and a lot of houses are handed down. Which gives quite a few people a warm windfall far sooner than expected...

Will it be enough to stimulate enough demand? Who knows, but those that can offer the cheapest prices will be in the best position for those that do not inherit anything after all. Those offering premium travel will most probably be hit the hardest, as both companies and individuals will most likely cut back a bit on that nice but pricey business class seat. We have seen that during the financial crisis, companies did cut back on international business bookings a lot and it took quite a few years for it to come back, and that was, after all, a pretty small crisis.
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 12:41
  #447 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Denti View Post
We have seen that during the financial crisis, companies did cut back on international business bookings a lot and it took quite a few years for it to come back, and that was, after all, a pretty small crisis.
When Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and most of the whole world financial system would have followed into the abyss but for the intervention of central banks and government? I know memory has the ability to be somewhat blunted with time but that was as far from “a pretty small crisis” as you can get.

(I agree though that it has the potential to be small in comparison to this but not in its own terms)
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 13:51
  #448 (permalink)  
 
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I'm currently booked with First choice /Tui

Being trying to contact them for 3 weeks but nobody has yet to answer the phone ( my phone battery only lasts for 2 hours)

I was happy to keep my booking and roll it over to next year but lack of information and communication wants me now to get my money back.

I know it's tough at the moment but keeping your customers in the current situation is key to staying in business.
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 14:32
  #449 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Paul852 View Post
It is a great shame that so many people believe what they are fed by the Daily Mail or similar...
If you actually go an look at the data you will find something like this:
Chances of dying if aged 85 and catching Covid-19: about 15%
Chances of dying in the next year of all causes if aged 85: about 15%
Wake up and pull the wool out of your eyes people!
Well I do not know which newspapers you read , but mine ( le Monde, Guardian , WSJ , NYT, etc.) all give a different picture . Even if you are 85 here is a big difference between dying of a stoke and spending 3 weeks in a ventilator to start with . That said the age bracket people ending up in hospital is much wider than only older people . From what I hear if you come out alive of the ventilator you lungs are so damaged that you cannot do much anymore. If you were correct the mass graves in NYC of the 16 pages obituaries in the Local Italians newspapers where it used to be 1 or 2 would all be fake news then ?
..
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 22:02
  #450 (permalink)  
 
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BA & Easy in particular have been really shocking in offering refunds. In fact, has anyone been refunded, in cash, within 1 week as required BY EU LAW?
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 05:10
  #451 (permalink)  
 
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I called BA on Tuesday 14 April to cancel a flight on 19 April. Held for less than 20 minutes. Avios returned within 24 hours and money back on my card by yesterday (Friday).

No complaints but I have been sitting on the refund call and hoping that most of the expected surge had passed. Did try about a week earlier but constantly cut off due volume of calls.

(not a regular poster as you can see but posted for balance)
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 09:15
  #452 (permalink)  
 
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That could cripple EU airlines compared to the US, and other, competitors.

https://www.politico.eu/article/airl...irus-bailouts/


Airlines brace for climate strings attached to coronavirus bailouts
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Old 19th Apr 2020, 06:26
  #453 (permalink)  
 
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To come back to the initial question, just check the cash amount of the airlines plus their business model.
Below 4 months without the possibility to reform the airline and without any state participation, it's done.
My two cents.
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Old 19th Apr 2020, 17:10
  #454 (permalink)  
 
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Not to worry it will all even out in the end. The state will pick winning airlines on the basis of maximizing short term political gain. Those chosen few will with the inevitable bean counter driven mentality of their executives, inflate airfares in order to goose this quarters returns and their bonuses which will open space for nimble new entrants who will undercut them but over expand on the basis of irrational exuberance that this time it is different; until it all comes crashing down the when the next world wide bad thing happens....

We have seen this movie before.

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Old 19th Apr 2020, 22:01
  #455 (permalink)  
 
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I have not personally seen detailed financial updates from many companies yet but easyJet released this on Thursday:

“We estimate that our operating costs burn is in the region of £30-40 million per week, whilst the fleet is grounded. This compares to circa £125 million when flying a full schedule.”

“Upon closure of all these funding initiatives, we expect to have generated total additional liquidity of c.£1.85-£1.95bn leading to a notional cash balance of circa £3.3bn.”

“We have run scenario analysis assuming that our fleet remains fully grounded for 3 months, 6 months and 9 months,”

“This analysis has shown that we have sufficient cash reserves to remain liquid across a number of scenarios:

o During a 3-month grounding easyJet would use around £1.2bn in cash;

o During a 6-month grounding we would use around £2.2bn in cash;

o During a 9-month grounding we would use around £3.0bn in cash.”

Full report here:

Trading Update for Six Months ending 31 March 2020


CP
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Old 20th Apr 2020, 04:34
  #456 (permalink)  
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“We have run scenario analysis assuming that our fleet remains fully grounded for 3 months, 6 months and 9 months,”
Good planning , cash reserves and transparency . EZY definitively will be one that still will be there in 6 months time ..( which by now has become October )
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Old 20th Apr 2020, 13:01
  #457 (permalink)  
 
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Good on EZY to lay out the costs and what preparations they have made. If the other airlines were as transparent then that would go a long way to giving confidence to their staff.
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Old 20th Apr 2020, 14:13
  #458 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting and transparent update for sure, especially having started a sale/leaseback with lessors on 50% of the fleet - BUT what happens to the £3 billion cash burn when the return to flying might only utilise 10% of the fleet on 10% of the routes, growing at a tempered rate until all borders re-open and public confidence returns - the fact remains, getting bums on seats is not going to be immediate for 126/189 capacity aircraft so how long can they continue to operate with a less than 50% load factor... How do they last the next 24 months before the fleet can even begin to get anywhere close to load factors they are used to?
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Old 20th Apr 2020, 15:10
  #459 (permalink)  
 
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They sold and leased back 20% of the fleet. Before this crisis 70% of the fleet was owned, now it's "only" 50%.
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Old 20th Apr 2020, 16:21
  #460 (permalink)  
 
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market for 1/3 occupation?

Personally my wife and I would be happy to take 1/3 our normal number of intercontinental flights and pay 3x the price of a ticket, if social distancing etc., etc., etc. would be rigorously adhered to on those flights and at the airports. Flight revenue for the airline would be roughly the same.
I wonder whether there would be a market for that: same number of flights, 1/3 occupation, triple price; 1/3 the number of passengers per day.
At present there is an all or nothing situation - some thinking should go towards changing the business.

Last edited by jan99; 20th Apr 2020 at 16:33.
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