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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 25th Apr 2020, 06:44
  #481 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Mauritius,soon or latter
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@Atc watcher,
Do you remember when They introduced ban for liquid more than 100ml ?? And, all of sudden, after passing security check, there were ( and still there) wending automat selling water 0,5 l for just 2$. Some evil voices spoke that owner of all these "machines" is son of high level politician.
Expect the same, today. Why?
Because son must work something. Either in dutch greenhouses or sell sometning ( masks, gloves etc) to happy passengers.
😀😊
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Old 25th Apr 2020, 14:15
  #482 (permalink)  
 
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MoL....oppssss🙄
https://onemileatatime.com/ryanair-ceo-interview/
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Old 25th Apr 2020, 14:15
  #483 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Satoshi Nakamoto
The days of 25 minute turnarounds are over with social distancing and the cabin will need a deep clean down route.
One day after this 'pandemic' social distancing will have gone... So yes, the 25 min turnarounds will be back!
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Old 25th Apr 2020, 15:22
  #484 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
One day after this 'pandemic' social distancing will have gone... So yes, the 25 min turnarounds will be back!
Give it an year and half +/-, a working vaccine, some virus normal weakening&people immunity and memories erasure process and yeap, indeed... No doubts about that.
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Old 25th Apr 2020, 17:12
  #485 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by JanetFlight View Post
Give it an year and half +/-, a working vaccine, some virus normal weakening&people immunity and memories erasure process and yeap, indeed... No doubts about that.
Peoples memories are short, absolutely, but you still have to have money to travel especially for holiday travel which is entirely discretionary. The world wide wealth destruction that has occurred in the last month is unprecedented. For most average people it will take years to regain the financial position they had in January and many may never get back.

There are a range of possible outcomes and my guess is a good as yours, but the possibility of a permanent reset of the airline industry to a smaller footprint dominated by a few major players with near monopoly pricing power is definitely one of the possible outcomes. My personal opinion worth exactly what you paid for it, is that this is what I think is the most likely outcome.
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Old 25th Apr 2020, 19:18
  #486 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by JanetFlight View Post
Give it an year and half +/-, a working vaccine, some virus normal weakening&people immunity and memories erasure process and yeap, indeed... No doubts about that.
Hope you are right - but here we are 40 years after the HIV virus and no vaccine found yet .... so I have my doubts about your comment.
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Old 25th Apr 2020, 20:33
  #487 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by foxcharliep2 View Post
Hope you are right - but here we are 40 years after the HIV virus and no vaccine found yet .... so I have my doubts about your comment.
You can’t compare HIV to a corona type virus, it’s a completely different type of virus. Just do a little bit of reading at least. If nothing else you’ll learn something new.

CP

Last edited by CaptainProp; 25th Apr 2020 at 21:19.
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Old 25th Apr 2020, 21:42
  #488 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jan99 View Post
Drive to the airport. Rent a car at the other end. Airports and airport facilities must have taken measures ofcourse to ensure distancing. Not all that complicated it seems to me.
And of course hope that the rent a car was properly disinfected..
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Old 25th Apr 2020, 21:48
  #489 (permalink)  
 
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Thereís no vaccine for HIV, but big pharmaceutical companies make a load of money with the antiviral drugs that treat the disease though....make of that what you will.
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Old 26th Apr 2020, 01:29
  #490 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/ai...RZ854znrCdZQrE

Air France will need 7 thousand million euros, will start to "release" staff with voluntary/mutual accordance and wont expect to return to normality at least within 2 years from now...
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Old 26th Apr 2020, 10:00
  #491 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 3Greens View Post
Thereís no vaccine for HIV, but big pharmaceutical companies make a load of money with the antiviral drugs that treat the disease though....make of that what you will.
Or perhaps people should make some research before jumping to conclusions?

Here's a link highlighting the problems scientists are having with HIV:

https://www.healthline.com/health/hi...e-we#obstacles

This is particularly interesting as some seems to think finding a corona vaccine is going to be equally hard to come up with as it is with HIV.

"Most vaccines protect against viruses that enter the body through the respiratory or gastrointestinal systems. More viruses enter the body in these two ways, so we have more experience addressing them. But HIV enters the body most often through genital surfaces or the blood. We have less experience protecting against viruses that enter the body in those ways."

"Vaccines protect against disease, not infection. HIV is an infection until it progresses to stage 3, or AIDS. With most infections, vaccines buy the body more time to clear the infection on its own before disease occurs. However, HIV has a long dormant period before it progresses to AIDS. During this period, the virus hides itself in the DNA of the person with the virus. The body canít find and destroy all of the hidden copies of the virus to cure itself. So, a vaccine to buy more time wonít work with HIV."

This last quote is talking about latent provirus (virus genome integrated into the DNA of the host cell) reservoirs in the CD4+ T cells. This is one of the huge challenges with finding a vaccine and a cure for HIV.

Finding a vaccine for the COVID19, and similar virus, on the other hand is routine work for medical professionals and scientists today. They just need time and from what I can see we are talking about 12-18 months before we have one (or more) available for mass distribution / vaccination.

Don't let facts ruin a good story though. ;-)

CP
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Old 26th Apr 2020, 10:21
  #492 (permalink)  
 
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CP, we do not even know whether someone who has fully recovered from this disease has any reasonable immunity to reinfection. We also do not know whether immunity to one strain (if that is even possible) gives immunity to another. Many teams are having a go at finding a useful vaccine because finding one is probably our best solution to this problem, but success is by no means a given.
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Old 26th Apr 2020, 20:31
  #493 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GS-Alpha View Post
CP, we do not even know whether someone who has fully recovered from this disease has any reasonable immunity to reinfection. We also do not know whether immunity to one strain (if that is even possible) gives immunity to another. Many teams are having a go at finding a useful vaccine because finding one is probably our best solution to this problem, but success is by no means a given.
Yep, well said. Doesn't seem to me like this is "routine work" and all we need is "time".

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Old 27th Apr 2020, 04:17
  #494 (permalink)  
 
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Going back to the ot.

I think more than a few people are trying to predict whatís going to happen based on common logic, previous economy patterns etc.

The thing is, this is not a case of which company is richer, bigger, older. This is a case of which companies can get money and credit lines from governments, shareholders and banks.
There is simply no way any private air transport business can survive something like this.

Just look at which group any given airline belongs to, or who are the shareholders, or if itís backed by their governments and youíll have a pretty accurate idea of who has a chance.

In a (not so) extreme example, nothing would stop all private airlines being wiped from the globe, and starting from scratch in a couple of years with new, debt free companies. Just saying.

Commercial aviation is vital to any countryís economy. VITAL. So in a couple of years time it will probably be almost normal. Between now and then, what I said before.
Good luck to all of us.
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Old 27th Apr 2020, 08:08
  #495 (permalink)  
 
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Rather unpleasant outlook but it's the same for many if not all industries and trades it seems. It looks like Corona crisis will not just take some months but maybe this entire year - at least. So we need strategies to return to normal before we in fact are back at (new) normal.
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Old 27th Apr 2020, 10:33
  #496 (permalink)  
 
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Very worrying times for the industry. No exit strategy means a complete impossibility to plan any recovery. Then this nugget appears today:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52439405

It appears some with an agenda are using this crisis as an opportunity to hit the aviation industry hard under the "Climate Change" banner. "Protect the NHS" is the UK Govt's strapline. Many seem to not understand that no economy = no tax income = no NHS. Aviation is a key economic pillar.

Whether we are aircrew, air traffic, engineering, ground support, manufacturers or any one of the plethora of related trades that make up this industry, we are all suffering here. Together we must stand. Stay safe all.
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Old 27th Apr 2020, 11:04
  #497 (permalink)  
 
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When the NHS hero-worship groupthink descends into resentment because of delayed diagnosis, delayed surgery, grannies not getting ventilated etc, at least we'll have videos of clapping and high-fives. Should be of comfort to those of us when the emails concerning litigations start coming in from the trust.

Completely agree that the long-view needs to start being taken, it hasn't to date.

Last edited by Fostex; 27th Apr 2020 at 18:36.
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Old 27th Apr 2020, 13:19
  #498 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TelsBoy View Post
It appears some with an agenda are using this crisis as an opportunity to hit the aviation industry hard under the "Climate Change" banner. "Protect the NHS" is the UK Govt's strapline. Many seem to not understand that no economy = no tax income = no NHS. Aviation is a key economic pillar.

Very true - with todays news, if the 50,000 jobs in the UK that rely on Airbus are lost along with million other jobs that depend on aviation that is a going to be a big hit to the ability to pay for things like the NHS.

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Old 27th Apr 2020, 18:25
  #499 (permalink)  
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The UK letter said: "If public money is used to save them, they must be required by law to do more to tackle climate change.

"They must be obliged to follow in the footsteps of many in the industry that have implemented ambitious carbon offsetting schemes."
Worrying indeed as it is exactly the same issue in France, Macron needs support from the ecologist parties ( green parties) to govern and win the next elections . His own Environment minister has declared this morning on a radio program that the Government will ensure that public money granted to help AF will be met by assurances that CO2 emissions will be drastically reduced , and that domestic flights will be restricted to favor SNCF high speed trains .
Ben Smith ( CEO AF) has apparently agreed to this and is reported to have also declared that it will take at least 2 years to get out of the current crisis .
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 00:38
  #500 (permalink)  
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Knowledgeable people down the pub used to explain to me why inflation was a good thing. I never did get the hang of it, despite being cushioned by it for a large part of my life. I'm not very proud of that by the way.

I hear Acme Air is expanding. What's the job situation? Just swap Acme for a slew of names and you'll know what I've been hearing for most of my flying life. Expansion is a company necessity, right? It's part of a model that can't function as a stable entity. I never understood why.

A neighbour of mine owned a lot of the town. I asked his advice about leasing office space. "The future rent will reflect the new value of the property. Investors expect that." Councils seem to have similar notions about rates. I understood unstable business models that so closely emulated greed.

I've never really understood why a world can't be run on cooperation and kindness, and nor it seems has a major nation, since such concepts could get one lynched. And now we've arrived at a point that we're ill-equipped to handle. Oh, we're making the right noises, but the truth of the situation has been spelled out in posts above, and for this reason we, that is all nations, shouldn't expect to go back to the pre-virus life we led. It is simply too dangerous - and that's trading and fiscal danger I'm talking about. We know about the risk of patchy Covid-19 flare-ups, but the danger of a second, or third quick-succession virus is statistically too real. The entire world needs to be braced for at least one added pandemic.

Talk of 'getting back to normal' fills me with unease, primarily because in so many people it feeds feel-good circuits in brains that are not seeing a history-altering danger any more clearly than they can see virions.
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