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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 20th Apr 2020, 16:21
  #461 (permalink)  
 
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market for 1/3 occupation?

Personally my wife and I would be happy to take 1/3 our normal number of intercontinental flights and pay 3x the price of a ticket, if social distancing etc., etc., etc. would be rigorously adhered to on those flights and at the airports. Flight revenue for the airline would be roughly the same.
I wonder whether there would be a market for that: same number of flights, 1/3 occupation, triple price; 1/3 the number of passengers per day.
At present there is an all or nothing situation - some thinking should go towards changing the business.

Last edited by jan99; 20th Apr 2020 at 16:33.
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Old 20th Apr 2020, 16:33
  #462 (permalink)  
 
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Isn't that called "Business Class"? People have tried running business-class-only flights. It didn't work.
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Old 20th Apr 2020, 17:00
  #463 (permalink)  
 
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It is not comfort that would be offered but safety. Quite a different product I would think.
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Old 20th Apr 2020, 17:31
  #464 (permalink)  
 
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There will always be an alternative, because the vast majority of people are happy to take the minuscule risk of flying economy class rather than pay 3 times the price for a business class seat.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 06:26
  #465 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by jan99 View Post
Personally my wife and I would be happy to take 1/3 our normal number of intercontinental flights and pay 3x the price of a ticket, if social distancing etc., etc., etc. would be rigorously adhered to on those flights and at the airports. Flight revenue for the airline would be roughly the same.
I wonder whether there would be a market for that: same number of flights, 1/3 occupation, triple price; 1/3 the number of passengers per day.
At present there is an all or nothing situation - some thinking should go towards changing the business.
I'm intrigued. How will you get to/from the airport and what will you actually do at the destination? You cannot control every single person you will come in contact with.

All seems rather pointless.
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Old 22nd Apr 2020, 10:45
  #466 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jetscream 32 View Post
Interesting and transparent update for sure, especially having started a sale/leaseback with lessors on 50% of the fleet - BUT what happens to the £3 billion cash burn when the return to flying might only utilise 10% of the fleet on 10% of the routes, growing at a tempered rate until all borders re-open and public confidence returns - the fact remains, getting bums on seats is not going to be immediate for 126/189 capacity aircraft so how long can they continue to operate with a less than 50% load factor... How do they last the next 24 months before the fleet can even begin to get anywhere close to load factors they are used to?
That’s not the question here. If it was, easyJet and all other European airlines would have to throw in the towel now without even trying to save the business. Is that what you are suggesting?

The £3bn are various types of credits that are paid back on commercial terms. I thought that was clear or? We have already seen that creditors (aircraft lessors for example) have been flexible with payback terms for companies with healthy finances pre-corona, not so for companies where creditors have had doubts in future of companies.

Also, nothing is indicating that European airlines will be grounded for 9 months and everything is indicating that they will be completely grounded for about 2-3 months. From there ops are likely to start up in steps around Europe with some countries / routes opening up earlier than other. That leaves at least £1.5bn in reserves, or about £200m per month, from start of ops to support the company through the coming 6-8 months.

CP
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Old 22nd Apr 2020, 16:02
  #467 (permalink)  
 
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It's certainly not about throwing the towel in - it is about the ability to repay the £600 million it has drawn down due for repayment in March 2021 (which will come round very quickly) as required by HMG as part of the credit paper - If you have to dip further into other credit revolver facilities having leveraged yourself before the market recovers to a point of viability then you start to run out of runway very quickly.

Of all the airlines EZY is by far the most viable, along with the Green machine, however, my point being is that absolutely no-one is talking about recovery planning financial forecasts - they are just saying we can last this long based us on having this much money in the bank or that can be drawn upon.

Lasting any amount of time is one thing but saying - when we eventually get airborne again in 'x' months, we expect to utilise 'x' amount of the fleet at 'x' load factor over 'x' amount of time increasing at an average rate of 'x' per quarter - this will then at least demonstrate they have got a handle on reality and confidence that it has been financially modelled, thought about and that the staff will feel confident - this SHOULD be done so that the staff at least know there is a long term future and they are not going to be hung out to dry if the situation didn't go as the board predicted.

Thinking there is going to be some magic snap back to November 2019 normality is not happening anytime soon. We are all desperate for it to and I doubt there is a single person that doesn't want it to happen lightning-quick, but it shouldn't stop anyone being realistic and modelling what a re-start looks like
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Old 22nd Apr 2020, 17:08
  #468 (permalink)  
 
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What I am worried about is that we see the imposition of aviation specific health care theater just like the current joke of airport security which is really just security theater; that is measures designed to make people feel better but don't actually do much to make travel safer.

Society seems to be getting worse and worse at making rational risk-reward decisions. Half filling airliners means air travel will only be available if you are rich, and IMO is policy madness disadvantaging whole segments of the population for virtually no real gain.

The bottom line is that air travel, especially international air travel is the primary means contagious diseases like the Corona virus spreads, so what are the procedures to put in place to make sure people who are sick don't get on airplanes ?
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Old 22nd Apr 2020, 18:29
  #469 (permalink)  
 
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Jetscream 32, that would be great information but nobody, and I mean NOBODY, knows what and when those pax numbers are going to be.

So here they are, all airlines not just easyJet, trying to survive these next months and then deal with next hurdle. I guess the taxpayers will want their money back so payback terms of government COVID19 loan facilities will be renegotiated if needed. If not, we’ll potentially see quite a few companies filing for bankruptcy and defaulting on government loans which means money is gone. In easyJet’s case, and likely all other financially viable companies, I presume they’ll go to the commercial market for loan swap deal to get out of government loans as soon as it is possible.

An operational point to remember is also that costs will only really rise beyond reported £120m / month if and when the fleet gets activated and crew called in from the various furlough schemes. In other words, aircraft and crew will only get activated when there is a business case for that to happen. I think business will get going in some bases and on some routes pretty quickly, but take much longer time elsewhere. For employees this means that some will stay on furlough pay for a much longer time than other will.

CP

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Old 22nd Apr 2020, 19:25
  #470 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CaptainProp View Post
Jetscream 32, that would be great information but nobody, and I mean NOBODY, knows what and when those pax numbers are going to be. CP
Absolutely agree with everything you say - I was talking about financial modelling only to at least understand if you go from 120 to 150 to 190 burn rate per month you know how long you’ve got with the remaining cash you have whilst starting to incur more operating costs - pray for continued free oil 🤣

Upon hearing Prof Whitty tonight and hearing from a govt colleague in Spain there seems very slim to nil capability for anything to restart other than in low capacity form in 2020...

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Old 23rd Apr 2020, 13:00
  #471 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jetscream 32 View Post

Upon hearing Prof Whitty tonight and hearing from a govt colleague in Spain there seems very slim to nil capability for anything to restart other than in low capacity form in 2020...

I thought the same when I heard him - if social distancing continues to be mandated for the rest of the year as he suggests then I dont see how any passenger airline can restart services on a commercial basis in 2020.

Perhaps the title of the thread should be changed to 'Who will survive this and be here in 18 months?' because this year is going to pretty much cease to exist in aviation terms.
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Old 23rd Apr 2020, 15:25
  #472 (permalink)  
 
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Indigo Airlines have decided to release full salary to staff and not effect the 15% cut as they intimated earlier. They have also not furloughed anyone till date. Some silver lining in otherwise deep dark clouds
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Old 23rd Apr 2020, 19:54
  #473 (permalink)  
 
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What Iam hearing through my pos in the union, and talking to different unions and management's, it's clear load factors will not be back to 'normal' for at least the end of the year. Every airline has unique financial aspects but the focus will be on cost cutting through fuel hedging(the current fuel price is a gift that wont last), labor cost, get rid of certain overhead and negotiating leases. It's clear that labor cost will have to be substantially cut at least for the length of which revenues are heavily impacted and employees will hopefully fight to keep everybody employed at lower wages instead of having lower seniority laid off trying to protect the current wages. I remember where pilots were facing this choice a few years ago and chose to have a lot of their colleagues laid off in order to protect their pay( it was more complicated but beyond the scope here).
I really hope unions will focus on keeping current employees employed through temporary benefit cuts which should be recouped when things are better again.

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Old 23rd Apr 2020, 22:20
  #474 (permalink)  
 
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How are you going to get the passengers from the terminal to the aircraft if it is parked on a remote stand. You cannot stand on a crowded bus with your face in someone's armpit? The days of 25 minute turnarounds are over with social distancing and the cabin will need a deep clean down route. MOL says 66.6% (middle seat empty) load factor will not pay.

Last edited by Satoshi Nakamoto; 23rd Apr 2020 at 23:08.
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Old 23rd Apr 2020, 23:08
  #475 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Havingwings4ever View Post
What Iam hearing through my pos in the union, and talking to different unions and management's, it's clear load factors will not be back to 'normal' for at least the end of the year. Every airline has unique financial aspects but the focus will be on cost cutting through fuel hedging(the current fuel price is a gift that wont last), labor cost, get rid of certain overhead and negotiating leases. It's clear that labor cost will have to be substantially cut at least for the length of which revenues are heavily impacted and employees will hopefully fight to keep everybody employed at lower wages instead of having lower seniority laid off trying to protect the current wages. I remember where pilots were facing this choice a few years ago and chose to have a lot of their colleagues laid off in order to protect their pay( it was more complicated but beyond the scope here).
I really hope unions will focus on keeping current employees employed through temporary benefit cuts which should be recouped when things are better again.
How about keeping the mid and upper management at lower pay and zero bonuses
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Old 23rd Apr 2020, 23:19
  #476 (permalink)  
 
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How about keeping the mid and upper management at lower pay and zero bonuses
How about getting rid of the middle management?
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Old 24th Apr 2020, 19:52
  #477 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.aerotime.aero/clement.ch...-save-alitalia

Not only...but...as well.
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Old 24th Apr 2020, 22:16
  #478 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ZFT View Post
I'm intrigued. How will you get to/from the airport and what will you actually do at the destination? You cannot control every single person you will come in contact with.

All seems rather pointless.
Drive to the airport. Rent a car at the other end. Airports and airport facilities must have taken measures ofcourse to ensure distancing. Not all that complicated it seems to me.
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Old 25th Apr 2020, 06:20
  #479 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by jan99 View Post
. Airports and airport facilities must have taken measures of course to ensure distancing. Not all that complicated it seems to me.
Not all airports apparently . a friend sent me some photos from Twitter of a full A320 from CDG to MRS yesterday , no masks , no airport control either on departure or arrival ,queuing, business as before it seems .for some ..
here :
Wizzair is flying East European migrant workers to Aspargus flieds in the Netherlands in big numbers ..same apparently .
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Old 25th Apr 2020, 06:37
  #480 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SINGAPURCANAC View Post
That's just laughable. If they haven't been able to run the business with profits during years when competitors booked billions in profits then why would they now?? There is zero chance of current situation benefiting Alitalia and it will not "kick off in the same position as other airlines once the market recovers.”. I hope for the sake of all the employees in Alitalia that the company will survive, but it will only ever survive on continued life support from the government.

CP
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