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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 28th Apr 2020, 05:58
  #501 (permalink)  
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https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/de...t-27042020.pdf
Eurocontrol forecast issued yesterday . very optimistic on both scenarios if you ask me , (but they did not ) because this is not what I hear when talking to people around me .
The so called Chinese recovery cannot really be transposed in Europe and private airlines will not fly empty aircraft around to please their Governments statistics....
The medical people everywhere are now preparing for a second wave as restrictions are lifted too early for political reasons . Then the effects mentioned by Loose Rivets on his post above might slow down even more aviation as we knew it .
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 06:50
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The UK 2 week quarantine for arrivals doesn't seem to be fake news; absolutely insane but they really are actually proposing this.

If that goes ahead, then all UK operators (and most international businesses) may as well board up the windows and turn off the lights.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 07:12
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It's worked incredibly well here in NZ.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 07:25
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For the airlines, or for the spread of the virus?

If the latter, nailing everyone's door shut works even better, but eventually everyone starves.

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Old 28th Apr 2020, 07:37
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That is the current politicians dilemma : who to listen to : scientific medical evidence based facts or business economic lobbies..Lifting the travel restrictions and you most probably get a second wave..I think the drone footage of the mass graves being dug in areas in New York and London might switch public opinion in favor of the medical guys .. Many Countries have current 2 weeks quarantine for arrivals, and as Chris2303 said, it works quite well for them .
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 07:38
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Population of NZ >10x less than UK, UK is a European business and financial hub. NZ contained their limited number of cases very well, UK had to mitigate against extensive community spread.

The problem for NZ is managing their borders going forward. NZ is a country that is massively dependent on tourism. It is the country's largest export industry in terms of foreign exchange earnings and directly employs one in eight New Zealanders. No one is going to want to go on an adventure holiday to the land of Hobbits if it first means spending 14 days in a hotel room eating room service.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 07:40
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Talk about gross over reaction....once the cases get down to an acceptable level worldwide issue pax with masks to reduce occasional infected spreading their droplets. Get the HEPA filters working on turn arounds and you have pax entering the purest air environment outside operating theatres.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 07:52
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Except it’s the policy of some airlines not to run the APU for air conditioning during turnarounds to save money and prohibited by some tree hugging countries for noise abatement.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 08:01
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True Nightstop...but

I was in the Far East with SARs et al and this was mandated as it was one of the most effective measures Airlines could take. The tree huggers are going to find a lot less aircraft around after all this and will have to wind their necks in on this one.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 08:39
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It is frankly jaw dropping that governments seem absolutely content to completely destroy their economies for the sake of prolonging a few (in the grand scheme of things) lives. Future generations who will be paying the price of this for their entire working lives will not look kindly on the catastrophic overreaction. Society has been conditioned to believe that every life is priceless and must be saved at any cost. In reality a death is a tragedy for the people directly affected by it, but the world keeps turning and ultimately doesn't care.

People will still want to travel when this is over. Brits will want to take holidays. Political pressure to enable leisure and business travel is going to be immense. A Spanish politician was posturing recently, stating that Brits wouldn't be allowed into Spain as tourists because of the time it took for the lockdown to be implemented here. I suspect that other tourist hotspots (Greece, Turkey, Egypt etc.) will have a more pragmatic attitude if the Spanish insist on being intransigent. Plans for a two week quarantine for returning tourists will, I strongly suspect, be quietly shelved.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 09:11
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Guy has put one point of view. As an experienced captain having flown Boeings and Airbus for many years I have some interest in returning to flying. But if we take the other extreme, hopefully not likely but still possible, then there are a number of risks that still need to be considered. The first one is that we may not develop any meaningful immunity and a vaccine will prove elusive. Add to this equation that those previously infected might even get it worse the second time, particularly if they have lasting damage from the previous illness. Then things could get pretty bleak. Under this scenario this is not just going to kill a lot of the old and infirm but could affect a lot of others, not just in terms of people dying but those left disabled. I am not saying this the most probable scenario, and people may still want to continue as before. But it is not quite as simple as saying we have an end game and the sooner we exit the current measures the better off we will all be.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 09:23
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Think about it the way we do in aviation safety. If we halt any activity, we will bring the risk of any accident, incident or other abnormal occurrence to zero. However, that's obviously not the way forward as we won't survive for very long just sitting there and doing nothing. Therefore, we need to get going, accepting the inevitable risks and managing them appropriately.

The same goes for the current situation, I think. Lives can be saved from coronavirus by imposing total lockdown ad infinitum. But thus, far more lives will be lost to other causes in the long-term run. Poverty and famine, social unrest, increased violent crime rate, deterioration in existing health conditions, deterioration in mental health and whatnot else. Panic and its consequences kill people in themselves. Think about the significant drop in reported deaths from heart attack. Is this because people have all of a sudden become less susceptible to cardiovascular disease? Unfortunately not. It's because many fear seeking medical help for fear of being infected with the virus. And end up dying of something which could have been very well brought under control in other circumstances.

I am still optimistic that governments will realise this at some point and bring this insanity to a controlled end. Let young and healthy individuals go about their normal lives with appropriate protective measures in place. Protect the old, frail and chronically ill. It will still be a long journey, but this way there's at least some hope of a happy end in the coming years. And, hopefully, some cash flowing to keep aviation afloat in the meantime.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 09:34
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The first one is that we may not develop any meaningful immunity and a vaccine will prove elusive. Add to this equation that those previously infected might even get it worse the second time, particularly if they have lasting damage from the previous illness. Then things could get pretty bleak. Under this scenario this is not just going to kill a lot of the old and infirm but could affect a lot of others, not just in terms of people dying but those left disabled.
From what I've read, there is definitely not unbridled optimism within the immunology community that a vaccine is likely to be effective, neither does it seem remotely likely that exposure to the virus will confer full immunity, at least not long term. Therefore, unless we are prepared to accept the end of society as we know it, at some point we're going to have to accept that this virus is something that we're going to have to live with. The additional risk is minimal in the vast majority of cases.

Tens of millions of people will die over the coming years unless the virus becomes significantly less virulent. Most of them would have died in short order of another cause. Of course, some of the dead will be hitherto healthy individuals in the prime of their life, some will be children. There's no point burying our heads in the sand and pretending that this isn't a likely scenario. However, the consequences of shutting down economies and driving millions into poverty over a virus which has a mortality rate that by all reasonable accounts is far lower than 1% are simply unthinkable, and the product of a hysterical and catastrophic media driven overreaction. There will be a shift in the balance of public opinion. It's just a matter of when that shift occurs, but it will be sooner rather than later.

Edited to add: PilotLZ above was writing at the same time as me. His (or her) points are an excellent synopsis. Ultimately, life is not a risk free event.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 09:58
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I certainly hope we will get back in the air soon. If the virus has actually spread more widely and immunity in the population develops, then things could move quite quickly in a positive direction. But there is no clear evidence yet. I see the ONS has issued the latest UK mortality numbers for the week before last. The trend is not surprisingly bleak, 22,000 deaths versus an average of just over 10,000 for the corresponding week over the last five years and an increase of about 4,000 on the week before, which was already the worst this century. So things are by no means over, although with talk of the peak being passed it should improve over the coming weeks. I am actually more on the side of coming out of the restrictions sooner rather than later and it is perfectly plausible that once things improve the death rate may improve substantially as people who would otherwise have died have already passed away. But it is going to be a while before governments worldwide make coordinated decisions about this.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 10:07
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I have heard that how the virus infects you is also very dependant on how and with how much of the virus you get infected. If you get a few virus particles in you mouth, you will most likely survive, as your immune systems has sufficient time to respond. Get a few million deep in your lungs and anyone will be in serious trouble, possibly even if you have been infected before. So social distancing and/or masks (and possibly UV light) will probably remain an important part of our lives for a long time to come.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 10:13
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Agree with you both lederhosen and PilotLZ.
Guy incognito : As we speak in a remote area in Germany not far from where I live, a small village cemetery crematorium is working H24 with a lot refrigerated truck trailers from France and Belgium parked in streets blocking the nearby residential area. The total number of people dying at the moment is far above normal in those countries , whether due to the COVID 19 or other causes because hospitals are either full or people are afraid to go to them .

Last edited by ATC Watcher; 28th Apr 2020 at 10:16. Reason: subsequent posts
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 10:20
  #517 (permalink)  
 
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ATC Watcher: I donít necessarily disagree with your assessment that the figures may be under-reported.

With that said, the (questionable) Imperial study that the government seems to have heavily relied on in the UK (or at least been sufficiently spooked by to be spurred into a change in policy) has as its worst case doomsday scenario a death toll of 500,000 in the UK if no measures were taken. In absolute terms that is a big number, but itís still an extremely small proportion of the UK population. Even that worst case projection cannot logically justify the damage currently being wrought on the economy.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 10:37
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Lederhosen - did you read that somewhere or is that speculation? Everything I have read has said that if there isn't lasting immunity, then at least subsequent attacks would be LESS severe. And long term side effects are minimal for cases not requiring an ICU (eg a few examples of the lung "ground glass opacity" though even that may heal - long term data is of course, not available).
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 11:02
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To answer Joe le Taxi I posted a reference last week on the jet blast virus thread about evidence of worrying damage to the lungs amongst a cohort with relatively mild illness (not requiring ICU treatment as reported by doctors at the main hospital in Innsbruck) and there has subsequently been more of the same from other sources. Another issue appears to be that the virus can cause inflammation leading to damage in other organs as well. It is too early to tell how big an issue this is. I am not aware of anyone with these types of injury being reinfected and let's hope that cannot happen. But equally there is no proof to the contrary. There are diseases where previous infection reduces subsequent severity. But there are also examples (like Dengue) which get worse.
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Old 28th Apr 2020, 12:10
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A year ago if people had suggested taking affirmative action to kill 500,000 British citizens, they would have been sent to the funny farm. And that is the issue. It isnt the guy in the street nor the 4 striper who stops or eases lockdown, it is the government, and that means the cabinet or perhaps just Boris.....It must be the most difficult quandary. If they get it wrong, not getting re elected will be the least of their problems.

The comment about New Zealand not only shows how the UK and some other countries failed dismally, but also the problems moving forward. Many industries will restart, and some havent even stopped, but tourism, hospitality and transportation will be badly effected by reduced demand from frightened citizens and ongoing restrictions from frightened politicians until there is a vaccine. Fortunately it is very very likely one of the many vaccines will work, and if it is one of the early ones and we can develop manufacturing capacity (purely a matter of money and will power) we could vaccinate 70% of the developed world, except perhaps the USA, by Q1 next year
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